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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.

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Speaker 1: The Reserve Bank set to raise interest rates as the

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Speaker 1: war in the Middle East increases inflation pressures, the local

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Speaker 1: housing market has its worst week all year. And YouTube

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Speaker 1: surpasses Disney to become the largest media company in terms

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Speaker 1: of revenue plus why an ASX listed stock lost ninety

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Speaker 1: percent in one session. And Porsche cuts jobs as it

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Speaker 1: tries to recover from its less than successful electric vehicle strategy.

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Speaker 1: It is Monday, the sixteenth of March twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean Aylmer. Good morning, Michael, Sean.

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Speaker 2: The main story this morning.

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Speaker 1: All four of the big banks are now tipping a

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Speaker 1: rate height tomorrow after the Reserve Bank Board meets. It

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Speaker 1: would take the cash rate to four point one percent.

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Speaker 1: The banks aren't just predicting it, though, they are moving already.

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Speaker 1: A and Z has hiked fixed mortgage rates before the

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Speaker 1: RBA's even sat down with their tea and biscuits.

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Speaker 3: In their defense, fixed rate mortgages are priced off the

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Speaker 3: bond market. Michael and yealds have been rising. We've been

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Speaker 3: talking about that variable home loans or variable rate home

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Speaker 3: loans are priced off the cash rate. If that increases

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Speaker 3: tomorrow is everyone seems to think that it will I reckon.

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Speaker 3: By tomorrow night, we'll end up with all four big

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Speaker 3: banks having lifted variable cash rates as well as it

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Speaker 3: isn't a loan in increasing fixed rates. According to can Star,

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Speaker 3: twenty six lenders have hiked at least one fixed rate

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Speaker 3: in the past fortnite can starts. Sally Tinderle is quoted

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Speaker 3: as saying it's a major warning sign for all mortgage

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Speaker 3: holders that the cash rate is likely to rise.

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Speaker 1: It's not going to be an easy meeting, isn't it

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Speaker 1: for the RBA? Because just last week we talked about

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Speaker 1: household spending falling for the first time since September twenty,

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. You'd have to think that that might

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Speaker 1: give the RBA some pause, right.

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Speaker 3: Yes, I mean, on the one hand, you've got trimmed

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Speaker 3: mean inflation still at three point four percent higher than

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Speaker 3: the Reserve Bank once inflation. Michael is getting sticky out,

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Speaker 3: not softer. I use that phrase purely for you, because

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Speaker 3: you are smirking at me at this point, trying to.

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Speaker 2: Be mature here, Sean. Please let me have.

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Speaker 3: You the well Banks household spending index is flashing the

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Speaker 3: first real signs of weakness. Consumer sentiment is still below

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Speaker 3: a hundred. Mind you, it has been below a hundred.

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Speaker 3: This is the Westpac survey for a couple of years.

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Speaker 3: Now you've got this oil shock piling on, so there's

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Speaker 3: lots of moving parts to this how I put.

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Speaker 1: It, Yeah, I think that's fair. And after the show,

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Speaker 1: we've got fear and greed the weak ahead with our

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Speaker 1: resident economist Stephen could coolas it's a good listen today

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Speaker 1: just for his take on what the Reserve Bank Board

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Speaker 1: is going to do today and tomorrow, in particular the

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Speaker 1: fact that because the Board is not just kind of

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Speaker 1: rubber stamping what the governor and the deputy and want

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Speaker 1: to do, and it's his opinion that they would both

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Speaker 1: be pushing for a rate hike, but there's actually a

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Speaker 1: bit of work to be done to convince the board

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Speaker 1: that is going to be the right path. But it's

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Speaker 1: an interesting kind of take on it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, And Michael, can I say, if you still can't

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Speaker 3: get enough after listening to the Kirk, go straight to

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Speaker 3: the newsletter because in the newsletter today I've just taken

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Speaker 3: verbaitam what Andrew how Is, the Deputy Governor of the

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Speaker 3: Reserve Bank, said to Michelle Gratton in a podcast last

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Speaker 3: week about what he thinks how the economy is performing

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Speaker 3: and what his take on inflation was. There's so much to.

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Speaker 1: This and part of this, well, a big chunk of this,

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Speaker 1: right is the price of oil. Because the surge in

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Speaker 1: oil prices, it's making it almost impossible, you would have

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Speaker 1: to think for the RBA to sit on its hand,

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Speaker 1: even if households are starting to feel the pinch.

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Speaker 3: You know, the Reserve Bank sitting on its hands. It's

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Speaker 3: an odd concept, isn't it.

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Speaker 2: Yes, it's it's really what's that called?

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Speaker 1: But when you give something characteristics, anthrop answer, promology.

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Speaker 2: Or something that you know what we should move on,

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Speaker 2: we're both embarrassed.

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Speaker 3: So the Reserve Bank hard for it to sit on

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Speaker 3: his hands. Oh, oil Oil prices feed straight into petrol,

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Speaker 3: into transport, into logistics. It pushes prices up across the board.

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Speaker 3: The Reserve Bank has been very clear they are worried

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Speaker 3: about the persistence of inflation. So even though demand could

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Speaker 3: be softening, the supply side, pressure from the Middle East

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Speaker 3: is giving them very little room to move.

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Speaker 1: It is getting absolutely brutal at the petrol bowser Sean.

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Speaker 1: I filled up yesterday for diesel. I paid just a

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Speaker 1: touch under a two dollars sixty a liter. It costs

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Speaker 1: two hundred dollars to fill the tank. Oh, and it

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Speaker 1: becomes one of those decisions of Okay, do I do

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Speaker 1: this or do I fill it up halfway and hope

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Speaker 1: that things are going to get better. And in the

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Speaker 1: end I just thought, there's actually no sign that anything

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Speaker 1: is going to improve, and I might be paying two

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Speaker 1: dollars sixty now I might be paying two dollars eighty

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Speaker 1: in a week's time or three dollars in a month's time.

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Speaker 2: So it's just.

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Speaker 3: I'd almost guarantee, Michael, whatever you did would be the

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Speaker 3: wrong one where to go.

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Speaker 2: Of course it will be.

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Speaker 1: Of course it will be, and you'll be laughing at

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Speaker 1: me in a week's time when suddenly it's back down

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Speaker 1: to two dollars. Anyway, back to the RBA meeting, what's

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Speaker 1: it going to look like if you've got a mortgage?

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Speaker 1: What's the end result of rates get hiked tomorrow?

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Speaker 3: So we talk about six hundred thousand lot of mortgages.

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Speaker 3: Typically a couurd point increase. It's about ninety five bucks

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Speaker 3: a month in repayments. You get one in March, another

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Speaker 3: one and it may. That's close to two hundred dollars

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Speaker 3: a month extra if you're paying two hundred dollars to

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Speaker 3: fill up your car every even if you're paying one

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Speaker 3: hundred and fifty dollars. Not all of us have these

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Speaker 3: big diesel chugging tanks that you have, Michael. But let's

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Speaker 3: say it's a hundred and fifty dollars to fill up

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Speaker 3: your car. So that's what three hundred and six hundred.

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Speaker 3: You get a couple of rate rises eight hundred dollars

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Speaker 3: a month. You know that's going to put the brakes

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Speaker 3: on growth.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, and we talk about the fact that there is

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Speaker 1: no sign that things are easy, particularly in the Middle East.

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Speaker 1: There we've got Israel and Iran continuing to trade strikes,

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Speaker 1: while missile interceptions have been reported in Saudi Arabia, the

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Speaker 1: UAE and in Qatar as well. US President Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: says Iran wants to make a deal to end the war,

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Speaker 1: but he doesn't want to yet and I quote because

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Speaker 1: the terms are not good enough.

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Speaker 3: In an interview with NBC, Trump said the US had

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Speaker 3: I quote totally demolished end quote KRG Ireland, Iran's critical

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Speaker 3: export or oil export hub. But then Trump said we

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Speaker 3: may hit it a few more times just for fun.

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Speaker 3: I'm not sure who thinks that's fun. The US Embassy

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Speaker 3: in Bagdad has warned its citizens in Iraq to leave

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Speaker 3: immediately after a missile hit the building. Out of the weekend,

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Speaker 3: non emergency, US government employees have been told to leave Amman. Also,

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Speaker 3: the US has identified the six soldiers killed in a

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Speaker 3: refueling aircraft crash late last week, and President Trump has

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Speaker 3: also stepped up calls to reopen the vital Strait of muz,

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Speaker 3: calling on other countries now to send warships and help

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Speaker 3: to allow those commercial vessels to sail through safely, not

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Speaker 3: exactly being knocked down in the rush. The UK very circumspect.

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Speaker 3: Japan its leader she's heading to the US this week.

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Speaker 3: They're very circumspect about it as well. China simply called

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Speaker 3: for an immediate cessation of hostilities. You know, a lot

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Speaker 3: of not a lot of countries are willing to send

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Speaker 3: troops to that region to help.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, with so much volatility, so much uncertainty, was a

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Speaker 1: pretty rough week for the share market last week. Locally,

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Speaker 1: the S and PA is Sex two hundred closed Friday

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Speaker 1: eight five hundred and twenty five points. That's down around

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Speaker 1: two and a half percent for the week.

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Speaker 3: It's sound about seven percent below the record heigh it

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Speaker 3: set back in early March before the Iran conflict really

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Speaker 3: took hold. Ten of the eleven sector is finished in

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Speaker 3: the red last week.

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Speaker 2: Ten of the eleven, so energy was the only one

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Speaker 2: in the green.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, up about one point seven percent. Makes sense, of course,

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Speaker 3: when all's trading around one hundred US dollars a barrel.

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Speaker 3: Actual standouur story last Friday. That was Northern Star, the

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Speaker 3: gold miner biggest Australia's biggest goal miner is Chare. Price

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Speaker 3: fell fourteen percent on Friday after it downgraded its production

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Speaker 3: guidance again. They said their best estimate for the financial

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Speaker 3: year is now above one point five million ounces, which

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Speaker 3: is actually at the bottom end of their previous range,

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Speaker 3: or it's below their bottom end of their previous range.

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Speaker 3: Here's the Irony Goals trading at near five thousand US

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Speaker 3: dollars an ounce, record territory biggest goal miner. Can't take

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Speaker 3: it out of ground fast enough.

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Speaker 2: And just quickly.

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Speaker 1: How about the dollar, the Aussie dollar show. I might

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Speaker 1: have mentioned it once in passing, but I'm going on

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Speaker 1: holidays to the US in about five weeks or so,

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Speaker 1: so I'm curious to know.

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Speaker 3: Curious sitting just under seventy US since bitcoin continues to

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Speaker 3: sit just under seventy thousand US dollars a unit, which

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Speaker 3: is like, oddly can't be kind have been oddly calm

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Speaker 3: and everything that's going on.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, indeed, Okay, lots still to come, Sean. We'll be

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Speaker 1: back in a moment with the rest of the day's

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Speaker 1: business news, Sean. The local housing market is beginning to

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Speaker 1: stutter just ahead of likely interest rate rises, with auctions

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Speaker 1: over the last week recording their lowest preliminary clearance level

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Speaker 1: all year. It was a busy weekend though, with close

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Speaker 1: to three thousand homes going to auction. This is according

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Speaker 1: to Totality.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so the preliminary clearance rate for Sidney, Melbourne, Brisbane

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Speaker 3: were all in that sixty five sixty seven percent range.

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Speaker 3: Sydney was the worst of those ones. The preliminary number

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Speaker 3: is finalized a few days after the weekend. When they

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Speaker 3: get the final counts in normally comes in you know,

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Speaker 3: six eight percentage points below what we say on the show. However,

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Speaker 3: the week before this one, the preliminary clearancetraate was seventy

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Speaker 3: two percent. Final rate was fourteen percentage points below, came

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Speaker 3: in at fifty eight. It'll be really interesting to see

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Speaker 3: how far the national average over the past seven days

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Speaker 3: six point six of sixty six point six percent ends

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Speaker 3: up coming in as that final clearance rate. What's really interesting,

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Speaker 3: of course, is that we've talked earlier in the show

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Speaker 3: about household spending just a few signs that's slowing. Certainly,

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Speaker 3: there are a few signs that the housing market is slowing.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 3: Adelaide's probably one that's bucking the trend to you. It

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Speaker 3: had a clearance rate of preliminary clearance rade of eighty

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Speaker 3: four percent of the weekend, but like Canberra is at

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Speaker 3: fifty five percent perth, relatively low as well. There's definitely

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Speaker 3: some softness in the housing market at the moment, in

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Speaker 3: part because there's a lot more supply in the market.

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Speaker 1: Just on that preliminary clearance rate. Why is that gap

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Speaker 1: so large? Is it just because that the successful sales

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Speaker 1: are successful auctions and things, those are reported really quite

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Speaker 1: quickly quickly and in the last week's case, there was

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Speaker 1: just a lot more that were unsold than expected, and

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Speaker 1: it took longer for those reports to come through.

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Speaker 3: I don't know the answer to that. Generally, the gap

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Speaker 3: is because you know, the reader of that agent's very

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Speaker 3: happy to tell you the good news, and so Totality

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Speaker 3: clicks all that information and then a few days later

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Speaker 3: they find out how many you know, they do their

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Speaker 3: look at their data and you know who goes to

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Speaker 3: market who doesn't. But that fourteen percentage points, that's huge.

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Speaker 3: I don't actually know why that. That's almost like a

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Speaker 3: big glitch in the system. But I'm not saying that's

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Speaker 3: the case. I just don't know the answer to that.

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Speaker 2: No, that's fine.

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Speaker 1: You know what, we good friends with the people at Totality.

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Speaker 3: We are very good friends.

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Speaker 2: I'll put it.

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Speaker 1: To them and I'll find out some information for us.

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Speaker 1: Short now mentioned this one at the top of the show, Sean.

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Speaker 1: The share price of ASX listed IMMUTEP tumbled ninety percent

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Speaker 1: on Friday after the lung cancer therapy developer abandoned clinical

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Speaker 1: trials that wiped out more than five hundred million dollars

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Speaker 1: from its market valuation.

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Speaker 3: So EMMTEP had hoped FD was the product. It was

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Speaker 3: a potential blockbuster medication that would allow patients with lung

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Speaker 3: cancer to live longer. But on the recommendation of an

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Speaker 3: independent committee, it's just going to scrap all its trials.

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Speaker 3: If he was designed to stimulate the immune system to

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Speaker 3: attack cancer cells, the therapy was to be combined with

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Speaker 3: one of Merk's top selling cancer treatments. The whole idea

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Speaker 3: is coupled with chemotherapy, people could live longer. Basically the

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Speaker 3: trial don't say that besting in biotech is a very challenging,

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Speaker 3: very risky sometimes but not always rewarding.

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Speaker 1: Proposition one last one Sean before we get to international news.

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Speaker 1: South Australian to go to the polls this weekend with

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Speaker 1: Labor premier Peter melanawskas the shortest priced favorite in decades

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Speaker 1: of elections.

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Speaker 2: This is quite incredible.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So, I mean he's paying a dollar in one.

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Speaker 3: So that means if you bet a dollar, your return

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Speaker 3: it's a dollar and one you make one cent. If

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Speaker 3: you look at that, sex about a ninety nine percent

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Speaker 3: chance of winning. The contender Liberal Party led by Ashton Hern,

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Speaker 3: paying twenty six dollars in a two horse race, Basically

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Speaker 3: Melin Horsclis has done a really good job becoming popular

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Speaker 3: by thinking about sports. So the AFL gather round where

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Speaker 3: they all play in the same stadium over the weekend.

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Speaker 3: They Adelaide has that to Live golf tournament. I went

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Speaker 3: to that a few weeks ago. Great weekend in Adelaide.

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Speaker 3: VI eight Supercars event on the Adelaide Street Circuit. From

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Speaker 3: next year, the Moto GP is shifting from philip Island

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Speaker 3: to Adelaide. That seems to have really helped Peter melan

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Speaker 3: as our school. I can't say his name, the premier plan,

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Speaker 3: Peter Melanoskus's popularity.

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Speaker 1: It's just like I wasn't helping you there.

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Speaker 2: You have watched me grinning.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you have watched me battle through pronunciations for a

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Speaker 1: very long time. So when there is a chance just

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Speaker 1: to even things up a little bit, I will grab

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Speaker 1: it with both hands. Turning to international news, now show

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Speaker 1: on YouTube has become the largest media company in the

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Speaker 1: world in terms of annual revenue, sur passing Disney for

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Speaker 1: the first time.

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Speaker 3: Yes, so it's probably the big maybe the world. It's

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Speaker 3: hard to measure the Bollywood companies. So yeah, I would

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Speaker 3: play in the US in the US, but YouTube's overtaking Disney,

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Speaker 3: which is pretty amazing. Our group, Moffatt Nathanson said YouTube's

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Speaker 3: title revenue was sixty two billion US dollars compared to

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Speaker 3: Disney sixty one billion dollars. Now that doesn't include the

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Speaker 3: theme parks of the YouTube title. About forty billion was

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Speaker 3: in AD revenue, which is actually more than Disney paramount, NBC, Universal,

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Speaker 3: and Warner Brothers combined. While huge and YouTube is huge,

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Speaker 3: still somewhere before the behind the major tech platforms. So

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Speaker 3: Meta for example, reported one hundred and ninety six billion

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Speaker 3: US dollars last year, so still about the third the

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Speaker 3: size of those big tech platforms, but the biggest of

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Speaker 3: the media companies.

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Speaker 1: One last one, Sean, what do you make of this? Porsche,

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Speaker 1: the German car maker that was once the most elle

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Speaker 1: of fashionable brands, plans to cut jobs as it positions

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Speaker 1: itself to basically count US tariffs and revamp. It's less

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Speaker 1: than successful EV policy.

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Speaker 3: Man, who wants to buy a Porsche that's an electric vehicle?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's the same with Ferrari and others where it's

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Speaker 1: been kind of is an EV going to be successful

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Speaker 1: if you're not going to be able to feel.

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Speaker 3: The gutturals out.

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Speaker 2: You exactly feel it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So Porsche said revenue will fall this year on

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Speaker 3: the back of slower sales in China or local manufacturers

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Speaker 3: in that country are pushing into the luxury market. The

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Speaker 3: cost of sales in its biggest market, the US have

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Speaker 3: also increased by about seven hundred million euros a year

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Speaker 3: thanks to Tariff's the manufacturer though, So what it's doing,

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Speaker 3: it's pulling back on evs and like Mercedes Benz is

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Speaker 3: doing this, BMW is doing this basically investing in battery

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Speaker 3: only drive in hybrid models rather than battery only drive trains,

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Speaker 3: so investing in hybrid mode. They're also going to introduce

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Speaker 3: a couple of models above. It's kN SUV.

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Speaker 2: It's nine to one, one, nine to eleven.

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Speaker 3: I never quite know how to say that, but you

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Speaker 3: know the Porsche, the beautiful Porsche, the iconic one.

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Speaker 2: Yep.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So it's bringing in a couple of models above that.

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Speaker 3: Porsche has downgraded earnings four times last year. It's dropped

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Speaker 3: out of Germany's main DAX index, so the main stock market.

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Speaker 3: It is in all sorts of trouble, and so it's

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Speaker 3: taking some pretty drastic actions to try and get back

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Speaker 3: on track, so to speak.

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Speaker 2: Well done.

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Speaker 1: Nice way to finish there, Sean. Up next, Fear and

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Speaker 1: Greed Q and A with Stephen Cocoula's all about the

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Speaker 1: week ahead for the economy. It's not just the Reserve

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Speaker 1: Bank Board meeting, though that is the really the headline event.

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Speaker 1: We've also got labor force figures coming out on Thursday,

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Speaker 1: which are of course crucial. Perhaps two days too late

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Speaker 1: for the Reserve Bank, but they still matter. It's coming

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Speaker 1: up next to the Fear and Greed playlist on your

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Speaker 1: podcast platform or at Fear and Greed dot com. To

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Speaker 1: au is when you sign up for the free daily newsletter.

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Speaker 1: You can also do that in the show notes. I'll

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Speaker 1: put a link in there, super easy. Thank you very much, Sean.

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Speaker 3: Thanks Michael.

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Speaker 1: It's Monday, the sixteenth of March twenty twenty six. Make

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Speaker 1: sure you're following the podcast and join us online as

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Speaker 1: well on LinkedIn and Instagram. I'm Michael Thompson and that

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Speaker 1: was Fear and Agreed.

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Speaker 2: Have a great day.