WEBVTT - The end of ‘Twiggy’ Forrest's hydrogen dream

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<v Speaker 1>From Sports Media. I'm Daniel James. This is seven am.

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<v Speaker 1>When Tim Buckley was in Shanghai last month looking at

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<v Speaker 1>electric cars, what he saw amazed him. He saw cars

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<v Speaker 1>capable of traveling one thousand kilometers between fast chargers and

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<v Speaker 1>thousands of sites where batteries could be swapped out in minutes.

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<v Speaker 1>Buckley is a climate finance guy, so he knows evs

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<v Speaker 1>and he came back sure that this new generation of

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<v Speaker 1>vehicles held the answers to all the problems that have

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<v Speaker 1>plagued the industry. He was convinced of something else as well.

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<v Speaker 1>Hydrogen cars are dead. And it's not just Buckley who's

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<v Speaker 1>gone colon hydrogen. Andrew Twicky Forrest has just announced he's

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<v Speaker 1>scaling back his own hydrogen projects. Once sold as the

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<v Speaker 1>silver bullet that would hasten the end of Australia's dependence

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<v Speaker 1>on fossil fuels, hydrogen has now become an expensive and

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<v Speaker 1>heated point of political debate. Today, National correspondent for the

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<v Speaker 1>SAT Day Paper Mike Secam on why so many people

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<v Speaker 1>went all the hydrogen and why so many are now

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<v Speaker 1>walking away, raising questions about whether it has a future

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<v Speaker 1>at all. It's Thursday, August onan.

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<v Speaker 2>Mike. What was the promise of hydrogen power, Well, it

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<v Speaker 2>was promising almost everything. I mean, people called it the

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<v Speaker 2>Swiss Army Knife of energy sources. And you know, you

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<v Speaker 2>can see why people were enthusiastic. Hydrogen is the most

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<v Speaker 2>abundant element in the universe. It powers the sun, powers

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<v Speaker 2>the stars, it's non toxic. There's apparently an infinite supply

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<v Speaker 2>of it if we can find a way to produce

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<v Speaker 2>it in an environmentally sustainable way. The promise was very

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<v Speaker 2>big in a world.

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<v Speaker 3>Verse two cars powered by hydrogen derived from ammonia hit

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<v Speaker 3>the road in Queensland. Industry leaders say the breakthrough by

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<v Speaker 3>the CSIRO could see Australia become a renewable energy superpower

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<v Speaker 3>because the changing technology will allow the carbon free fuel

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<v Speaker 3>to be shipped safely anywhere in the world.

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<v Speaker 2>Only five years ago we produced our first national Hydrogen Strategy,

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<v Speaker 2>presented to the government by Australia's then Chief scientist Dalan Finkel,

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<v Speaker 2>and it foresaw hydrogen being used not only to power vehicles,

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<v Speaker 2>but for home heating and cooking via the gas reticulation network,

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<v Speaker 2>as a means of storing electricity generated by wind and

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<v Speaker 2>solar and providing an alternative to fossil fuels for base

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<v Speaker 2>load power. So they had a big future mapped out

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<v Speaker 2>for it.

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<v Speaker 4>Firstly, Allen, thanks to you for championing hydrogen as an

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<v Speaker 4>agenda as part of Energy's Australias energy transition. There's lots

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<v Speaker 4>of cynics along the way, and maybe Allen would even

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<v Speaker 4>agree he was a cynic.

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<v Speaker 2>And as the report said, it is quote flexible, safe,

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<v Speaker 2>transportable and storable, and it could be piped around the

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<v Speaker 2>nation and exported around the world to quote hydrogen hungary

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<v Speaker 2>unquote countries. And it went on to make the promise

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<v Speaker 2>that Australia could become the leader in the new industry

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<v Speaker 2>of shipping sunshine. As Finkle put it, at the time,

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<v Speaker 2>the future looked very bright about five years ago.

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<v Speaker 1>And one of hydrogen's most ardam supporters was Andrew Forrest.

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<v Speaker 1>What were his plans for hydrogen?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, his plan was basically to export it to the world.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, he saw a huge, huge potential for an

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<v Speaker 2>export industry.

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<v Speaker 5>All through Japan, through Europe, through Asia, China. We're speaking

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<v Speaker 5>to all the big players and convincing them no longer

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<v Speaker 5>is there an excuse that yeah, we'd really love to

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<v Speaker 5>use green hydrogen, but we have to use fossil fuel.

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<v Speaker 5>And I'm saying no, the time has come. Green hydrogen

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<v Speaker 5>is going to have its day and the world will

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<v Speaker 5>never go back to the rubbish bin. This is a

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<v Speaker 5>multi generational change, This is a forever change.

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<v Speaker 2>He also thought, of course, as a way to decarbonizing

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<v Speaker 2>his mining operations. You know, he's a big guy on

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<v Speaker 2>or minor Ford deesku Is. His company invested I think

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<v Speaker 2>around one point one billion dollars in major projects. In

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<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty one, he announced partnerships with verious state and

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<v Speaker 2>federal governments to help with the transition at R and D,

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<v Speaker 2>and he set a target of producing fifteen million tons

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<v Speaker 2>of hydrogen by twenty thirty and last year he was

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<v Speaker 2>on stage in Morocco sprooking it still saying that you know,

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<v Speaker 2>he was a big believer in batteries, but any person

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<v Speaker 2>who said that hydrogen didn't have a role was a

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<v Speaker 2>quote muppet unquote.

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<v Speaker 5>I'm a huge believe in batteries, but any muppet he

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<v Speaker 5>says hydrogen doesn't have a role is a muppet.

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<v Speaker 2>And he repeated it just in case anyone didn't hear

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<v Speaker 2>it the first time.

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<v Speaker 1>To make sure that everybody got that.

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<v Speaker 5>That's a Muppet show on stage.

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<v Speaker 2>So you know, he basically threw down the gauntlet. Said,

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<v Speaker 2>I'm saying to anyone, including Elon Musk, you know, whoever

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<v Speaker 2>you like, whoever says hydrogen hasn't got a massive future,

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<v Speaker 2>was and he said it a third time a Muppet.

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<v Speaker 1>Elon is the Muppet.

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<v Speaker 5>I'm saying, anyone including Elon in adding herve you like,

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<v Speaker 5>who says hydrogen hasn't got a massive future a Muppets.

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<v Speaker 1>And he was probably bullish for a reason because he

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<v Speaker 1>wasn't alone in thinking that hydrogen was the way of

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<v Speaker 1>the future. Industries and governments around the world has started

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<v Speaker 1>to invest. So what are the Australia's plans for it? Now?

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<v Speaker 2>So the government is supporting it. It's got something called

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<v Speaker 2>the Hydrogen head Start Plan, which will provide four billion

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<v Speaker 2>dollars in support of selected large scale renewable hydrogen projects

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<v Speaker 2>which have not yet been enumerated, and it has budgeted

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<v Speaker 2>a further six point seven billion and maybe more in

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<v Speaker 2>production credits for any projects that actually get off the ground.

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<v Speaker 2>But now a lot of players are changing their tune.

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<v Speaker 2>Alan Finkel, he tells me, now that a number of

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<v Speaker 2>the newses they foresaw for hydrogen have proven impractical. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>hardly anyone outside the gas industry, for example, now sees

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<v Speaker 2>any future for hydrogen as a substitute for natural gas

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<v Speaker 2>in home heating and cooking. Tim Buckley, director of Climate

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<v Speaker 2>Energy Finance, who has been a big advocate of hydrogen

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<v Speaker 2>in the past, has just come back from China where

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<v Speaker 2>he saw amazing developments in electric vehicles, and so he

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<v Speaker 2>came back convinced that hydrogen cars will go the way

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<v Speaker 2>of the Dodo and probably also you know, hydrogen heavy transport.

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<v Speaker 2>So there's a couple of big changes of emphasis there.

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<v Speaker 2>And of course a week ago Andrew Forrest, the biggest

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<v Speaker 2>booster of all, announced that he was scaling back his

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<v Speaker 2>commitment to hydrogen as well.

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<v Speaker 1>After the break, has the green hydrogen dream evaporated? Mark

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<v Speaker 1>the turner aund in support for hydrogen has been swift.

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<v Speaker 1>Can you tell me why that is? What's changed?

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<v Speaker 2>Sure? Put, simply a lot of people got it wrong.

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<v Speaker 2>I spoke to the director of the think tank Climate

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<v Speaker 2>Energy Finance, Tim Buckley, who admitted as much, and he

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<v Speaker 2>said the reason he was so excited about hydrogen was

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<v Speaker 2>that he thought it was going to get a lot

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<v Speaker 2>cheaper to produce. I mean to explain how it's produced.

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<v Speaker 2>What happens is you have to split water molecules that's

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<v Speaker 2>H two O by electrolysis, which is essentially by the

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<v Speaker 2>use of electricity, into hydrogen and oxygen, and that is

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<v Speaker 2>quite an energy intensive process. They were going to do

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<v Speaker 2>it with the use of cheap wind and solar, And

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<v Speaker 2>if I might quote him, he said, five years ago,

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<v Speaker 2>I was projecting solar to cost twenty to thirty dollars

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<v Speaker 2>per mega what our and wind likely to be fifty

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<v Speaker 2>to seventy dollars per mega what hour. But we're now

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<v Speaker 2>talking about solar at sixty dollars per mega what our.

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<v Speaker 2>That is two to three times as much as he

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<v Speaker 2>had hoped, and win by probably around twice as much

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<v Speaker 2>as he had hoped by twenty thirty and the cost

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<v Speaker 2>of electrolyzers hasn't come down by anything like the amount

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<v Speaker 2>that it was forecast to. So simply put, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of people got carried away with the hype

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<v Speaker 2>around hydrogen, and the basis for that was that they

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<v Speaker 2>thought it was going to be a lot cheaper to

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<v Speaker 2>produce than it looks like it will be. And of course,

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<v Speaker 2>about a week ago, Forrest announced that he was walking

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<v Speaker 2>away from his goal of producing fifteen million tons of

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<v Speaker 2>hydrogen per annum by twenty thirty.

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<v Speaker 6>Fordeskew has announced it will cut seven hundred jobs by

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<v Speaker 6>the end of the month as part of a restructure.

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<v Speaker 6>The mining giant has also abandoned its green hydrogen production

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<v Speaker 6>targets by twenty thirty.

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<v Speaker 2>The problem that has been cited by him is that

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<v Speaker 2>electricity prices are just too high still, and so he

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<v Speaker 2>announced that he was in fact moving his emphasis upstream,

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<v Speaker 2>that he was now going to focus on the production

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<v Speaker 2>of renewable energy from sun and wind.

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<v Speaker 5>The cost of energy is high being forced on us

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<v Speaker 5>around the world. There's no green hydrogen without very competitive

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<v Speaker 5>cost of electricity.

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<v Speaker 2>Of course, when Forest made his announcement, the renewable energy

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<v Speaker 2>skeptics in politics and the media all piled on.

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<v Speaker 1>It was about time. The whole project has never made sense.

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<v Speaker 6>It was just always stupid to bet the house us

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<v Speaker 6>on hydrogen.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, look, he's woken up the reality.

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<v Speaker 2>Particularly members of the Federal Coalition for a couple of reasons. One,

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<v Speaker 2>they have long had a very prickly relationship with forrest.

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<v Speaker 2>He has described the coalition's plans to build nuclear reactors

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<v Speaker 2>as and I'm quoting him here, bulled ust policies of

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<v Speaker 2>politicians masquerading as leaders.

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<v Speaker 5>Misinformed, unscientific, uneconomic, plucked out of their thin air. Bull

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<v Speaker 5>dust of nuclear policies of politicians masquading as leaders help

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<v Speaker 5>no one.

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<v Speaker 2>And he's accused them of dividing us with false hope

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<v Speaker 2>that we can cling to fossil fuels. So he's got

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<v Speaker 2>stuck right into them, and obviously they don't like that,

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<v Speaker 2>so they saw his announcement as an opportunity to use

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<v Speaker 2>him as a means of attacking the Labor government and

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<v Speaker 2>its support of the nascent hydrogen industry.

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<v Speaker 6>Labour has to stop its anti gas cruside.

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<v Speaker 1>We need more gas. We needed a meeting.

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<v Speaker 2>So Ted O'Brien, the opposition spokesman for climate change and energy,

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<v Speaker 2>came out with a media statement saying that, and I'm

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<v Speaker 2>quoting here, Twiggy's abandonment of green hydrogen has blown a

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<v Speaker 2>gaping hole in the Albanese Labor Government's energy plans, he said,

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<v Speaker 2>and it continued. Despite offering billions in taxpayer funds to

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<v Speaker 2>these projects, they are still failing to get off the ground.

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<v Speaker 2>With the collapse of Labour's green hydrogen plan, our energy

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<v Speaker 2>security is under serious threat as the government continues to

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<v Speaker 2>force ninety percent of Australia's twenty four to seven reliable

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<v Speaker 2>baseload energy out of the grid over the next decade.

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<v Speaker 1>So that's what the coalition has said, Mike. They've called

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<v Speaker 1>the scaling back by Fortescue and others as a superflop

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<v Speaker 1>as well. Is there any truth in their characterizations of

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<v Speaker 1>what's going on here?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, there is a tiny soups on of truth, I guess,

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<v Speaker 2>but you would have to say that even by the

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<v Speaker 2>tendentious standards of Australia's climate war, was O'Brien's release was

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<v Speaker 2>exception in its misrepresentation of the facts. For a start,

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<v Speaker 2>Labor is not forcing baseload energy out of the grid.

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<v Speaker 2>What's happening is coal plants are closing because they're old,

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<v Speaker 2>they're breakdown prone and they're uncompetitive with renewables. So that's

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<v Speaker 2>the story there. Second point, Forrest has not abandoned green

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<v Speaker 2>hydrogen at all, although as mentioned, he's decided against following

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<v Speaker 2>through with a couple of things. He's not going to

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<v Speaker 2>be going ahead with a memorandum of understanding with the

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<v Speaker 2>energy company AGL to make hydrogen at the site of

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<v Speaker 2>the old Ladell coal power station near Newcastle. But his

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<v Speaker 2>company remains committed to several major projects in the United States,

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<v Speaker 2>in Norway, in Brazil, where he has access to cheaper electricity.

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<v Speaker 2>His company is also pushing ahead with an electorallyzer plant

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<v Speaker 2>in Gladstone and Queensland and a pilot plant in the

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<v Speaker 2>Pilbra which aims to begin producing green iron from next year. So,

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<v Speaker 2>in other words, they will use hydrogen to refine iron

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<v Speaker 2>or turn it into iron, and then ship that much

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<v Speaker 2>more valuable product. Furthermore, Forrest's company was never in line

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<v Speaker 2>for any funding under the hydrogen Headstart program. The government

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<v Speaker 2>has yet to decide who's getting money under the program,

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<v Speaker 2>so far from having collapsed, it hasn't even started yet.

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<v Speaker 1>So Mike, where does that lead the government's hydrogen plan.

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<v Speaker 1>It's full billion dollar hydrogen plan. If the market walks

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<v Speaker 1>away from hydrogen, does that undermine the government's plans on this, Well, it.

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<v Speaker 2>Would if the market was walking away. I'm not sure

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<v Speaker 2>it is. I think the market is actually just walking

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<v Speaker 2>in a slightly different direction. So the Energy and Climate

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<v Speaker 2>Minister Chris Pohen has reaffirmed the government's commitment to hydrogen

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<v Speaker 2>and the quote was reports of the death of the

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<v Speaker 2>green hydrogen industry are greatly exaggerated, was the way he

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<v Speaker 2>put it. He claims that there are two hundred billion

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<v Speaker 2>dollars worth of investment schemes in the pipeline, So there

0:12:49.040 --> 0:12:51.840
<v Speaker 2>will be a future for hydrogen, possibly just a slightly

0:12:51.880 --> 0:12:52.560
<v Speaker 2>different one.

0:12:52.880 --> 0:12:55.440
<v Speaker 1>So as things stand at the moment, the opposition has

0:12:55.520 --> 0:12:59.480
<v Speaker 1>committed to nuclear, the government has committed to renewables, with

0:12:59.600 --> 0:13:02.840
<v Speaker 1>hydrogen being a significant part of the mix. Mik, what

0:13:02.880 --> 0:13:05.040
<v Speaker 1>does all this mean for the political debate on anychy

0:13:05.080 --> 0:13:08.280
<v Speaker 1>polsy as we head towards the next election. Does all

0:13:08.280 --> 0:13:10.000
<v Speaker 1>of this get us any closer than net zero?

0:13:10.240 --> 0:13:12.800
<v Speaker 2>Well, I mean, let's not be unduly negative here. Net

0:13:12.920 --> 0:13:15.400
<v Speaker 2>zero is getting close. So we're putting in lots more

0:13:15.720 --> 0:13:18.680
<v Speaker 2>wind and solar transmissions proving to be a bit of

0:13:18.679 --> 0:13:21.280
<v Speaker 2>a problem. We're moving a bit slower than we should have.

0:13:21.760 --> 0:13:25.120
<v Speaker 2>The prices of renewables are still too high, but progress

0:13:25.160 --> 0:13:28.760
<v Speaker 2>is meeting made. As for the coalition's plans for nuclear,

0:13:29.080 --> 0:13:31.920
<v Speaker 2>it may be some experts tell me not all that

0:13:32.080 --> 0:13:33.920
<v Speaker 2>you know a couple of decades down the track, there

0:13:33.960 --> 0:13:36.720
<v Speaker 2>will be a niche role for nukes, but it's not

0:13:37.360 --> 0:13:39.640
<v Speaker 2>the answer to everything, just like hydrogen wasn't the answer

0:13:39.640 --> 0:13:43.000
<v Speaker 2>to everything. In any case, there's good reason to suspect

0:13:43.000 --> 0:13:45.960
<v Speaker 2>that the coalition's nuclear plan is as much an active

0:13:46.040 --> 0:13:49.440
<v Speaker 2>sabotage as a climate policy. What it actually appears to

0:13:49.480 --> 0:13:52.120
<v Speaker 2>be endeavoring to do is to keep us using fossil

0:13:52.120 --> 0:13:54.360
<v Speaker 2>fuels for as long as possible, and even if that

0:13:54.440 --> 0:13:56.920
<v Speaker 2>is in the outright intent, it is certainly creating a

0:13:56.920 --> 0:14:02.400
<v Speaker 2>lot of uncertainty, which obviously investors don't like uncertainty. In

0:14:02.440 --> 0:14:04.560
<v Speaker 2>the case of hydrogen, I guess we can say that

0:14:04.640 --> 0:14:07.920
<v Speaker 2>the hype of some years ago has now been subject

0:14:07.960 --> 0:14:10.400
<v Speaker 2>to a dose of reality. So, you know, we won't

0:14:10.480 --> 0:14:12.719
<v Speaker 2>use hydrogen for a number of things we thought we might.

0:14:12.800 --> 0:14:14.960
<v Speaker 2>We won't use it for home heating and cooking. We

0:14:15.040 --> 0:14:18.719
<v Speaker 2>probably won't use it for transport. But if we use

0:14:18.720 --> 0:14:21.080
<v Speaker 2>it where we make it, it still has big potential

0:14:21.160 --> 0:14:24.360
<v Speaker 2>for you know, turning iron or into iron balk side

0:14:24.400 --> 0:14:28.400
<v Speaker 2>into a luma, for producing fertilizers, explosive things like that.

0:14:28.840 --> 0:14:31.800
<v Speaker 2>But the prospects of you know, exporting it around the

0:14:31.800 --> 0:14:34.440
<v Speaker 2>world and around the country. Those are not looking quite

0:14:34.600 --> 0:14:38.440
<v Speaker 2>as prospective as they were. So in a nutshell when

0:14:38.440 --> 0:14:42.040
<v Speaker 2>it comes to hydrogen, things are not as good as promised,

0:14:42.600 --> 0:14:45.160
<v Speaker 2>But nor are they as bad as they seem if

0:14:45.200 --> 0:14:48.720
<v Speaker 2>you believe you know the opposition and the other naysayers.

0:14:51.000 --> 0:15:06.960
<v Speaker 1>Mirk, Thanks for your time, Thanks for yours. Also in

0:15:07.000 --> 0:15:10.600
<v Speaker 1>the news today, Hamas says it's chief political leader, Ismael Hanier,

0:15:10.680 --> 0:15:13.320
<v Speaker 1>has been killed in Iran during a raid on his residence.

0:15:14.000 --> 0:15:17.520
<v Speaker 1>Hanier has been the face of Hamas's international diplomacy during

0:15:17.520 --> 0:15:20.800
<v Speaker 1>the war in Gaza, where Hannie's family's home was destroyed

0:15:20.840 --> 0:15:23.920
<v Speaker 1>in an Israeli air strike in November that killed several

0:15:23.920 --> 0:15:27.440
<v Speaker 1>of his family members. No one has yet claimed responsibility

0:15:27.440 --> 0:15:32.160
<v Speaker 1>for the assassination, but suspicion immediately fell on Israel, and

0:15:32.240 --> 0:15:34.600
<v Speaker 1>inflation in Australia rose to three point eight percent in

0:15:34.680 --> 0:15:37.760
<v Speaker 1>June according to the latest figures. It comes ahead of

0:15:37.760 --> 0:15:40.640
<v Speaker 1>the Reserve Bank's meeting next week where board members will

0:15:40.680 --> 0:15:43.720
<v Speaker 1>decide on the official interest rate, which is currently four

0:15:43.720 --> 0:15:54.920
<v Speaker 1>point thirty five percent. I'm Daniel James. Thanks for listening.