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Michael Thompson: Today on Fear and Greed. Global markets tumble following Donald

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Michael Thompson: Trump's broad based tariff announcement, with US facing local stocks

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Michael Thompson: being sold off sharply. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi says

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Michael Thompson: the decision is not the act of a friend. A

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Michael Thompson: and Z is scolded over its risk culture and sales

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Michael Thompson: of Tesla electric vehicles tumble, plus all the reactions from

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Michael Thompson: the tariff announcements and TikTok America set to be sold.

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Michael Thompson: Welcome to Fear and Greed. Daily business news for people

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Michael Thompson: who make their own decisions. It is Friday, the fourth

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Michael Thompson: of April twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning,

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Michael Thompson: Sean Ayleman.

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Sean Aylmer: Good morning, Michael.

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Michael Thompson: What are twenty four hours, Sean crazy?

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Sean Aylmer: Twenty four hours?

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Michael Thompson: Of course the main story this morning. Donald Trump's Liberation

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Michael Thompson: Day tariffs have sent share markets tumbling, pushed the Aussie

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Michael Thompson: dollar lower, and opened the way for several interest rate

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Michael Thompson: cuts in Australia later this year. At least that's what

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Michael Thompson: a bunch of market economists think. Yesterday morning, Donald Trump

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Michael Thompson: announced and across the board ten percent tariff, pretty much

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Michael Thompson: everyone selling to the United States, while countries who sell

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Michael Thompson: more to America than they buy. They have a trade surplus,

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Michael Thompson: they'll be hit with much higher imposts. The breadth of

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Michael Thompson: the tariff's surprise traders, many of who are hoping for

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Michael Thompson: a watered down version of protectionism. The consensus view is

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Michael Thompson: that the tariffs will slow economic growth considerably, and that

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Michael Thompson: will hurt the local economy much more than the actual

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Michael Thompson: tariffs themselves. The local share market fell on opening, dropped

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Michael Thompson: about two percent, improved throughout the day to finish one

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Michael Thompson: percent lower. The US facing stocks fared worst. The Aussie

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Michael Thompson: dollar fell immediately as investors dropped what they considered were

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Michael Thompson: riskier currencies. It's now trading close to sixty two and

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Michael Thompson: a half US cents and the price of gold had

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Michael Thompson: a new high more than three one hundred and sixty

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Michael Thompson: US dollars announced and market economists reckon that the slow

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Michael Thompson: down the global growth will feed through to the local

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Michael Thompson: economy and the Reserve Bank will be forced to cut

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Michael Thompson: interest rates. In fact, bond markets are now priced in

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Michael Thompson: a one hundred percent chance of a rate cut in May.

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Michael Thompson: A few days ago when the Reserve Bank had its

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Michael Thompson: board meeting, came out was about seventy percent. So the

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Michael Thompson: threat of a global slay down due to these tariffs

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Michael Thompson: means that we may be getting our interest rates now.

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Michael Thompson: All of this is happening, at least locally sewn in

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Michael Thompson: the context of a federal election campaign. What was the

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Michael Thompson: political response from Australia.

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Sean Aylmer: Well, Anthony Albineas he said the tariffs were not the

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Sean Aylmer: act of a friend and the decision isn't consistent with

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Sean Aylmer: growing the global economy. He said, Australian people will begin

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Sean Aylmer: to question the nation's long standing relationship with the United States,

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Sean Aylmer: but the government will not be imposing tariffs on US

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Sean Aylmer: goods and it won't be using the existing dispute resolution

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Sean Aylmer: mechanism in the US Australia Free Trade Agreement. Oppositionally that

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Sean Aylmer: Peter Dutton said it was a bad day for Australia

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Sean Aylmer: and said it was not the treatment we deserve. He

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Sean Aylmer: also said that Anthony Alberinezi had missed the opportunity to

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Sean Aylmer: soften the tariff blow. He said he would have done better.

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Michael Thompson: Do you think there was ever an opportunity to soften

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Michael Thompson: the blow in the lead up to this or is

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Michael Thompson: all the opportunity to soften the blow going to come

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Michael Thompson: afterwards in negotiations.

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Sean Aylmer: After the fact yes, that's exactly right. Get set for

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Sean Aylmer: a bunch of negotiations to come on. So we talked

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Sean Aylmer: a lot about beef beforehand, and beef was hit with

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Sean Aylmer: the ten percent tariff, but no more so. It's the

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Sean Aylmer: same as everywhere else. The fine print carved out things

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Sean Aylmer: like pharmaceuticals and gold, certain minerals as well that could

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Sean Aylmer: be good for Australia. That's where the negotiations will really

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Sean Aylmer: come in showing.

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Michael Thompson: There some weird stuff in the announcement as well. And

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Michael Thompson: there's been so much serious coverage of all of this,

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Michael Thompson: and we did a special episode yesterday as well where

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Michael Thompson: we went through a lot of the detail of the announcement.

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Michael Thompson: Some weird stuff when you start to look at the detail.

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Michael Thompson: Can I give you one. Yeah, Norfolk Island, which is

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Michael Thompson: an external territory of Australia, has been hit with a

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Michael Thompson: twenty nine percent tariff. Now, the thing about Norfolk Island

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Michael Thompson: is that, according to the data on which this decision

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Michael Thompson: was based they export something like one million dollars worth

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Michael Thompson: of products to the US, of which the vast majority

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Michael Thompson: six hundred and fifty thousand dollars worth of leather shoes. Really,

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Michael Thompson: but the administrators of Norfolk Island actually say no, that's

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Michael Thompson: not right. We don't actually export anything really to the US.

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Michael Thompson: Another one, another one, the Herd Island and MacDonald Islands,

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Michael Thompson: which are another external territory of Australia. They are closer

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Michael Thompson: to Antarctica than they are to Australia, right, but they

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Michael Thompson: are one of these external territories. Again they have been

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Michael Thompson: hit with the tariff and singled out in this announcement.

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Michael Thompson: There's nothing there except for penguins. There are no exports

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Michael Thompson: at all coming off. There's no people living there. It's uninhabited.

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Michael Thompson: So there's some funny stuff in this.

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Sean Aylmer: There is very fun I mean, you wonder where they

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Sean Aylmer: got some of the figures from. And a lot of

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Sean Aylmer: the economists and experts yesterday were just saying, it doesn't

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Sean Aylmer: really make much sense where the numbers come from. I

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Sean Aylmer: mean sort of. I give a shout out to Kembardi

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Sean Aylmer: in Vietnam. They're we like forty nine to forty six

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Sean Aylmer: percent respectively. And if you think of they like, Nike

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Sean Aylmer: make shoes in Vietnam. So all of a sudden, Nike

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Sean Aylmer: shoes are going to go from one hundred bucks to

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Sean Aylmer: one hundred and forty nine dollars theoretically because they're imported

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Sean Aylmer: from Vietnam. It's weird the actual effect of tariff and

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Sean Aylmer: Chinese goods now because they already had twenty percent tariff

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Sean Aylmer: on them, fifty four percent.

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Michael Thompson: That is huge.

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Sean Aylmer: It is huge. It's so broad, yeah, so.

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Michael Thompson: Broad locally, Which local companies are going to be hit hardest?

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Michael Thompson: Because you said that the market fell, but was it

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Michael Thompson: the whole market?

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Sean Aylmer: It was the tech stocks got hit really hard, as

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Sean Aylmer: did some of the property guys. But a bunch of

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Sean Aylmer: companies release statements explaining how the tariff announcement hits them specifically,

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Sean Aylmer: so Antzel, particular, equipment maker manufactures in China, major exported

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Sean Aylmer: to the US. Its share price fell thirty and a

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Sean Aylmer: half percent on the back of concerns that it's going

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Sean Aylmer: to get hit in a double whammy. Global luxury fashion

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Sean Aylmer: platform setire It tumbled after saying it will probably be

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Sean Aylmer: forced to push up prices in its key market, which

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Sean Aylmer: is the US, after European made goods were hit with

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Sean Aylmer: tariffs of twenty percent plus. Treasury Wine estates the wine

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Sean Aylmer: makers that it expects minimal disruption, but fifteen percent of

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Sean Aylmer: its wine sold in the US are from outside the country.

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Sean Aylmer: Its share price was down a couple percent. Brevel was

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Sean Aylmer: the one though. You've got to feel sorry for Brevl.

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Sean Aylmer: It manufactures about ninety percent of its products in China,

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Sean Aylmer: sells about forty five percent of them to the US.

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Sean Aylmer: So China has been hit with the fifty four percent tariff.

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Sean Aylmer: Now it's been working really hard to diversify its manufacturing plants,

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Sean Aylmer: so it's pushed into Mexico, Indonesia, Cambodia.

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Michael Thompson: Oh no, that's just a checklist. You've got countries who

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Michael Thompson: have been hammered.

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Sean Aylmer: Yeah, alertly, absolutely. Now. Rebel's share price closed down more

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Sean Aylmer: than four percent yesterday, which probably wasn't a bad effort

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Sean Aylmer: all things considered. There were some local winners. Bluescape Steel

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Sean Aylmer: has a really big factory in Ohio. Its products will

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Sean Aylmer: become more competitive. It's share price actually jumped more than

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Sean Aylmer: one percent.

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Michael Thompson: Sean, after the show, we're talking about local businesses. You've

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Michael Thompson: got a great interview with Bran Black, who is the

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Michael Thompson: Chief executive of the Business Council of Australia.

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Sean Aylmer: Sure do so. Bran talks to us about what he

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Sean Aylmer: thinks the tariffs means for businesses in Australia. He's very insight.

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Sean Aylmer: I mean, he's considered Brand. So we talked to Brand

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Sean Aylmer: about the gray area in which we can negotiate these tariffs,

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Sean Aylmer: and this isn't I mean, it is a final decision

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Sean Aylmer: in a sense, but it's actually almost like Scott Besson,

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Sean Aylmer: the Treasury Secretary yesterday said, it's actually the top of

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Sean Aylmer: the negotiating position. You can negotiate from here, and that's

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Sean Aylmer: what Brand's talking about.

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Michael Thompson: Yeah, it is a good conversation and a really important

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Michael Thompson: one to have a listened to after the show today,

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Michael Thompson: still got plenty to come though, Sewan. We'll be back

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Michael Thompson: in a moment with the rest of the day's business

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Michael Thompson: news Sean. The two federal leaders, Anthony Abernezi and Peter Dutton,

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Michael Thompson: will face off in a second debate on the ABC

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Michael Thompson: on April sixteen, yep.

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Sean Aylmer: The first next week on Sky News and The Daily Telly,

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Sean Aylmer: the one the week after. The first one in the

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Sean Aylmer: ABC since nineteen ninety three, hosted Buy Insiders presented David Spears.

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Sean Aylmer: Everyone loves David Spears, don't they.

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Michael Thompson: Yeah, remember when he was on Sky News. Yeah, he's

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Michael Thompson: got a really good reputation.

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Sean Aylmer: Yeah. Opposition lader Peter Dutt was in Perth campaigning with

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Sean Aylmer: local candidates promising six hundred million dollars towards a new

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Sean Aylmer: national agriculture and mining program. Anthony Albaneze, well, he fell

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Sean Aylmer: off the stage yesterday. That was probably what we're going

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Sean Aylmer: to remember the third of April four hitting your deck.

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Michael Thompson: When I worked in radio and during the election campaigns,

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Michael Thompson: you were hanging out for things that were just usual,

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Michael Thompson: because every day it was just a campaign announcement, policy announcement, announcement, announcement, announcement,

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Michael Thompson: and same kind of thing, shopping center walkthroughs, anything like this.

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Michael Thompson: As soon as the journalists would call into the show

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Michael Thompson: to say, yep, just been here. Has anything happened? Has

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Michael Thompson: there been a heckler? Has anyone fallen over? Has something

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Michael Thompson: gone wrong? Anything out of the ordinary. And you feel sorry,

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Michael Thompson: though when it happens to Anthony Albernezi, you feel sorry

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Michael Thompson: when it happens to any of them.

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Sean Aylmer: I actually sort of felt sorry for Scott Morrison when

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Sean Aylmer: heko that kid playing soccer soccer.

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Michael Thompson: Yeah, that was unfortunately, it just completely bowled the point.

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Michael Thompson: I felt sorry for them both. Sean moving on, A

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Michael Thompson: and Z will be forced to hold an extra two

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Michael Thompson: hundred and fifty million dollars on its balance sheet after

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Michael Thompson: the banking regulator said it has long standing concerns about

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Michael Thompson: the bank's risk management and culture.

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Sean Aylmer: Essentially, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority says ay and Z

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Sean Aylmer: risk management isn't good enough and it's sort of as

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Sean Aylmer: a type of insurance. It wants the bank ain Z

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Sean Aylmer: to hold the extra two hundred and fifty million dollars

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Sean Aylmer: in reserve. APRA talked about persistent and prevalent problems with

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Sean Aylmer: oversight of non financial risk and said the risk culture

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Sean Aylmer: was reactive now. Ain Z chair Paulo Suliman said it's

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Sean Aylmer: clear the bank had work to do a bit of

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Sean Aylmer: an understatement on that one's suspect. An independent review by

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Sean Aylmer: consultants Oliver Wyman says there's no evidence of widespread or

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Sean Aylmer: systemic misconduct and overall described the bank's culture as positive. However,

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Sean Aylmer: it criticized bank leaders for not taking proper action when misconduct,

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Sean Aylmer: including bullying and substance abuse, was reported.

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Michael Thompson: Shawn Sales of Tesla electric cars in Australia plunged fifty

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Michael Thompson: three percent in March and a down almost sixty percent

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Michael Thompson: for the first three months of tweeny twenty five, according

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Michael Thompson: to the Electric Vehicle Council.

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Sean Aylmer: The Council said two eight hundred and twenty nine Tesla

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Sean Aylmer: vehicles were sold in March in Australia, compared to about

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Sean Aylmer: six thousand twelve months ago. Sales for Polestar the other

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Sean Aylmer: full ev that reports through the Council were up one

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Sean Aylmer: hundred and fourteen percent about one hundred and eighty two souls.

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Sean Aylmer: The numbers are relatively small. Sales have plug in hybrid vehicles.

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Sean Aylmer: They jumped three hundred and eighty percent last month. Sales

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Sean Aylmer: in Australia of Tesla at least have suffered from a

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Sean Aylmer: few things, like Elon Musk's relationship with Doald Trump has

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Sean Aylmer: not helped falling resale values have not helped change over

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Sean Aylmer: to a new Tesla model Y vehicle. The first is

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Sean Aylmer: expected next month. That hasn't helped. But no doubt that

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Sean Aylmer: the steam has come out of Tesla. They Tesla wouldn't

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Sean Aylmer: have steam.

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Michael Thompson: No, they wouldn't.

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Sean Aylmer: I say that, but go on a charge.

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Michael Thompson: I don't know. Shown the supermarket walls are getting a

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Michael Thompson: bit spicy. Earlier this week we heard Woolies has reduced

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Michael Thompson: prices more than coals. But now a report from UBS

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Michael Thompson: says that Coles has actually become the main supermarket of shoppers.

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Sean Aylmer: Yes, so, and the Investment Bank UBS surveyed one thousand people.

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Sean Aylmer: Thirty eight percent described Coals as their primary supermarket. Woolies

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Sean Aylmer: was at thirty seven percent. It's the first time in

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Sean Aylmer: this survey that Coals has come in above Woolies. Now.

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Sean Aylmer: The analysts say that forty four percent of shoppers described

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Sean Aylmer: Woolies as their main supermarket before COVID nineteen pandemic. It's

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Sean Aylmer: a bit anecdotal because in terms of sales, we know

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Sean Aylmer: Woolies sells more stuff than Cole's does all these a

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Sean Aylmer: distant third, but it definitely highlights the trend away from

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Sean Aylmer: Woolies towards Coals. Yeah.

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Michael Thompson: Indeed, turning to international news now, China and the European

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Michael Thompson: Union have vowed to retaliate against the US's sweeping tariffs,

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Michael Thompson: increasing potential for a full blown trade war.

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Sean Aylmer: European Commissioner President Ursula von de Layan said, and I

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Sean Aylmer: quited President Trump's announcement is a major blow to the

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Sean Aylmer: world economy. We're preparing for further countermeasures to protect our

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Sean Aylmer: interests in businesses. If negotiations fail. The US's place twenty

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Sean Aylmer: per cent tariffs on European inports. China, which now faces

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Sean Aylmer: an impost of fifty four percent, has said it will retaliate.

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Sean Aylmer: Were you waiting on that? There was a comic posted

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Sean Aylmer: by the official Chinwa news agency. Did you see it?

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Sean Aylmer: It was a monkey and it said appeasement doesn't work

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Sean Aylmer: for a greedy beast.

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Michael Thompson: Oh, those are fighting words.

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Sean Aylmer: They were fighting words, quite entertaining.

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Michael Thompson: Showing that a run of news around tech stocks over

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Michael Thompson: the last twenty four hours Tesla TikTok, Donald Trump's media

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Michael Thompson: group everyone starting with Tesla.

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Sean Aylmer: Deliveries of evs more broadly fell in the first three

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Sean Aylmer: months of the year, making it the worst quarter for

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Sean Aylmer: Tesla since twenty twenty two, very much based on the

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Sean Aylmer: consumer backlash in Europe, fierce competition in China, weakness in

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Sean Aylmer: the US market. For the March quarter, Tesla delivered globally

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Sean Aylmer: three hundred and thirty seven thousand cars BYD by comparison,

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Sean Aylmer: four hundred and sixteen thousand cars, So it's very much

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Sean Aylmer: a bigger company now BYD than Tesla. Onto TikTok. The

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Sean Aylmer: White House is close to agreeing to a deal with

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Sean Aylmer: US investors to buy TikTok's American operations, taking control from

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Sean Aylmer: his Chinese anors. It will ensure the app remains operational

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Sean Aylmer: in America and chairs in Trump Media and Technology Group

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Sean Aylmer: tumbled after the President opened the way for him to

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Sean Aylmer: sell his entire two point three billion dollar steak. The

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Sean Aylmer: group operates Truth Social Now. In a filing with the regulator,

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Sean Aylmer: the group said it planned to sell one hundred and

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Sean Aylmer: forty two million chairs through Trump Media. Day's one hundred

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Sean Aylmer: and forty two million shares includes Donald Trump's Chairs now.

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Sean Aylmer: Trump Media itself describe the announcement as a routine filing.

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Sean Aylmer: No one seems to believe them.

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Michael Thompson: Up next is the Fear and Greed Daily Interview with

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Michael Thompson: Bran Black, chief Executive of the Business Council of Australia.

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Michael Thompson: Definitely worth a listen today. It is coming up in

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Michael Thompson: the Fear and Greed playlist. Also head along to Fearangreed

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Michael Thompson: dot com dot au and sign up for the Fear

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Michael Thompson: and Greed newsletter as well. Shawn, some very interesting stuff

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Michael Thompson: happening in that space right now. Thank you very much,

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Michael Thompson: Thank you.

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Sean Aylmer: Michael.

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Michael Thompson: It is Friday, the fourth of April twenty twenty five.

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Michael Thompson: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us

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Michael Thompson: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael

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Michael Thompson: Thompson and that was fear and greed. Have a great day.