1 00:00:05,790 --> 00:00:08,490 Sean Aylmer : Welcome to the Fear & Greed Business Interview. I'm Sean Aylmer. 2 00:00:08,910 --> 00:00:12,629 Sean Aylmer : It's an extraordinary time in global politics right now. Israel 3 00:00:12,630 --> 00:00:15,599 Sean Aylmer : and Iran have attacked each other's territories for the first 4 00:00:15,599 --> 00:00:18,299 Sean Aylmer : time, with the world now waiting to see if it 5 00:00:18,299 --> 00:00:22,139 Sean Aylmer : escalates into war. Over the weekend Iran aimed more than 6 00:00:22,140 --> 00:00:25,950 Sean Aylmer : 300 drones and missiles at Israel in retaliation for the 7 00:00:25,950 --> 00:00:29,729 Sean Aylmer : assassination of an Iranian General at an embassy in Syria. 8 00:00:29,969 --> 00:00:32,880 Sean Aylmer : The attack didn't succeed, with Israel, the US, UK, France, 9 00:00:32,880 --> 00:00:36,330 Sean Aylmer : and Jordan combining efforts to intercept the missiles and drones. 10 00:00:36,629 --> 00:00:39,420 Sean Aylmer : But there's a very real risk that this could now 11 00:00:39,420 --> 00:00:42,930 Sean Aylmer : blow up into a much larger conflict, one with major flow- 12 00:00:42,930 --> 00:00:47,040 Sean Aylmer : on effects globally, including a significant impact on financial markets. 13 00:00:47,250 --> 00:00:50,729 Sean Aylmer : Peter Hartcher is political editor and international editor of the 14 00:00:50,729 --> 00:00:53,789 Sean Aylmer : Sydney Morning Herald and the Age, and one of the 15 00:00:53,820 --> 00:00:56,670 Sean Aylmer : absolute best on this topic. Peter, welcome back to Fear & Greed. 16 00:00:57,000 --> 00:00:59,490 Peter Hartcher: Thanks, Sean, and thanks for the flattery. It gets you everywhere. 17 00:01:00,210 --> 00:01:03,780 Sean Aylmer : It does, it does. Tell me, the next move is 18 00:01:03,780 --> 00:01:07,529 Sean Aylmer : largely up to Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister. What 19 00:01:07,530 --> 00:01:08,400 Sean Aylmer : do you think he does? 20 00:01:08,849 --> 00:01:13,350 Peter Hartcher: Well, he's in a real dilemma here, Sean. He's under 21 00:01:13,350 --> 00:01:18,840 Peter Hartcher: pressure internally within his ruling coalition, and the most extreme 22 00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:22,080 Peter Hartcher: and right- wing parties on which he relies, by the 23 00:01:22,080 --> 00:01:28,048 Peter Hartcher: way, his coalition is quite fragile, pressuring him to, well, 24 00:01:28,469 --> 00:01:33,780 Peter Hartcher: to quote his Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben-Gvir " The 25 00:01:33,780 --> 00:01:35,729 Peter Hartcher: boss must go nuts." 26 00:01:35,910 --> 00:01:36,179 Sean Aylmer : Wow. 27 00:01:36,630 --> 00:01:39,750 Peter Hartcher: Talking about Netanyahu. So he wants Netanyahu to go nuts 28 00:01:39,809 --> 00:01:46,500 Peter Hartcher: in a frenzied all- out military attack against Iran to 29 00:01:46,500 --> 00:01:49,500 Peter Hartcher: bring on a full scale war between Israel and Iran. 30 00:01:50,460 --> 00:01:53,790 Peter Hartcher: On the other hand, his allies, and the US in 31 00:01:53,790 --> 00:02:00,029 Peter Hartcher: particular, are adamant that he should not, that he should, 32 00:02:00,030 --> 00:02:04,020 Peter Hartcher: to quote Joe Biden, " Netanyahu should count the failed or 33 00:02:04,020 --> 00:02:10,680 Peter Hartcher: the ineffectual attack by Iran as a win." A win 34 00:02:10,680 --> 00:02:14,010 Peter Hartcher: for Israel, that Israel now is in a strong position, 35 00:02:14,010 --> 00:02:17,550 Peter Hartcher: Iran has been shown to be ineffectual, Israel has been 36 00:02:17,550 --> 00:02:21,240 Peter Hartcher: shown to be well protected from aerial bombardment, and Israel 37 00:02:21,240 --> 00:02:24,989 Peter Hartcher: is now in a strong position to negotiate a regional 38 00:02:24,989 --> 00:02:28,918 Peter Hartcher: agreement, to get a ceasefire, to get the Israeli hostages 39 00:02:28,950 --> 00:02:32,399 Peter Hartcher: out of Gaza, and to put pressure on Hamas. So, 40 00:02:33,150 --> 00:02:36,570 Peter Hartcher: they're the two competing pressures, and he's got time to 41 00:02:36,570 --> 00:02:39,989 Peter Hartcher: think this through. If I had a crystal ball, I'd 42 00:02:39,990 --> 00:02:42,719 Peter Hartcher: tell you which way he's going to jump. I can't, 43 00:02:43,049 --> 00:02:47,489 Peter Hartcher: but I would add this, Sean. The most tempting thing, 44 00:02:48,030 --> 00:02:52,049 Peter Hartcher: the most tempting option and target for Netanyahu has to 45 00:02:52,050 --> 00:02:56,819 Peter Hartcher: be the nuclear facilities in Iran. As you know, for 46 00:02:57,570 --> 00:03:00,600 Peter Hartcher: more than 20 years Iran's been working towards building a 47 00:03:00,600 --> 00:03:04,470 Peter Hartcher: nuclear weapon with Israel as its principle enemy. The Israelis 48 00:03:04,470 --> 00:03:06,600 Peter Hartcher: have been terrified for years of what happens on the 49 00:03:06,600 --> 00:03:10,530 Peter Hartcher: day when the Iranians get that capability. But with this 50 00:03:10,530 --> 00:03:15,329 Peter Hartcher: attack, direct strike against Israel from Iran, from its own 51 00:03:15,330 --> 00:03:19,138 Peter Hartcher: territory for the first time, the Ayatollahs have essentially given 52 00:03:19,410 --> 00:03:23,820 Peter Hartcher: Israel an invitation now to strike them directly, and the 53 00:03:23,820 --> 00:03:28,200 Peter Hartcher: biggest and juiciest target are the nuclear facilities in the 54 00:03:28,320 --> 00:03:30,029 Peter Hartcher: Islamic Republic of Iran. 55 00:03:31,320 --> 00:03:35,729 Sean Aylmer : Just explain to me, why have the Ayatollahs done what 56 00:03:35,730 --> 00:03:38,610 Sean Aylmer : they've done in the past 24 hours, but also more 57 00:03:38,610 --> 00:03:43,050 Sean Aylmer : broadly, Iran doesn't attack Israel normally, not directly anyway, but 58 00:03:43,050 --> 00:03:45,959 Sean Aylmer : it is such a major force in the area, why 59 00:03:45,960 --> 00:03:46,500 Sean Aylmer : is that? 60 00:03:47,550 --> 00:03:51,029 Peter Hartcher: Well, it doesn't attack Israel directly. It hasn't until this 61 00:03:51,030 --> 00:03:57,450 Peter Hartcher: weekend, simply because it's scared. It doesn't have the military 62 00:03:57,690 --> 00:04:01,740 Peter Hartcher: firepower and the defensive capability to go to war directly 63 00:04:01,740 --> 00:04:06,059 Peter Hartcher: with Israel, and of course, Israel's sponsor and ally, the 64 00:04:06,059 --> 00:04:09,750 Peter Hartcher: US. And of course, a full- on war may also 65 00:04:09,750 --> 00:04:13,170 Peter Hartcher: bring in other Israeli allies, and we can talk about 66 00:04:13,170 --> 00:04:15,960 Peter Hartcher: that if you like, but we've discovered that Israel has 67 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:19,260 Peter Hartcher: more allies than we realized as a result of the weekend. 68 00:04:19,260 --> 00:04:19,320 Sean Aylmer : Yeah. 69 00:04:19,800 --> 00:04:23,790 Peter Hartcher: So, that's the reason that it hasn't attacked until now. 70 00:04:23,790 --> 00:04:26,909 Peter Hartcher: But the reason that Iran's made an exception and for 71 00:04:26,910 --> 00:04:31,529 Peter Hartcher: the first time struck Israel directly is because Israel, on 72 00:04:31,529 --> 00:04:37,890 Peter Hartcher: April 1, launched cruise missiles to destroy an Iranian diplomatic 73 00:04:37,890 --> 00:04:42,450 Peter Hartcher: compound in Syria. Now, that Iranian diplomatic compound contained seven 74 00:04:42,809 --> 00:04:46,529 Peter Hartcher: senior Iranian military officials, and one in particular, the head 75 00:04:46,529 --> 00:04:49,829 Peter Hartcher: of the Quds Force, a very senior General in Iran, 76 00:04:49,860 --> 00:04:53,880 Peter Hartcher: and diplomatic territory, diplomatic properties are sovereign territory of the 77 00:04:53,880 --> 00:04:57,270 Peter Hartcher: country that has them. So, Iran said it considered the 78 00:04:57,900 --> 00:05:01,678 Peter Hartcher: strike to be a direct attack on Iranian soil, and 79 00:05:01,678 --> 00:05:05,400 Peter Hartcher: it would retaliate. And I guess it had to demonstrate, 80 00:05:05,400 --> 00:05:08,160 Peter Hartcher: the regime, the Ayatollahs had to demonstrate credibility in front 81 00:05:08,160 --> 00:05:09,779 Peter Hartcher: of their own people, that they were not afraid to 82 00:05:09,779 --> 00:05:13,469 Peter Hartcher: strike Israel and not afraid to risk the wrath of 83 00:05:13,470 --> 00:05:17,099 Peter Hartcher: the Great Satan as they call the US. So that's 84 00:05:17,099 --> 00:05:19,170 Peter Hartcher: why it's done it, but it's done it in a 85 00:05:19,170 --> 00:05:24,000 Peter Hartcher: very limited way, 300 armed drones and missiles, as you say. 86 00:05:24,959 --> 00:05:27,240 Peter Hartcher: Iran has much more capability than that. So this is 87 00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:30,539 Peter Hartcher: really a fairly cautious strike, but that's why they've broken 88 00:05:30,540 --> 00:05:32,789 Peter Hartcher: all precedent and struck Israel directly. 89 00:05:33,749 --> 00:05:36,300 Sean Aylmer : How does this play out for the US? Is it 90 00:05:36,599 --> 00:05:39,870 Sean Aylmer : possible for there to be a conflict without the US 91 00:05:39,870 --> 00:05:40,680 Sean Aylmer : being involved? 92 00:05:41,609 --> 00:05:46,500 Peter Hartcher: Yes, absolutely there is, although, because of the political system 93 00:05:46,500 --> 00:05:50,220 Peter Hartcher: in the US and the pressure that would come onto 94 00:05:50,220 --> 00:05:54,059 Peter Hartcher: any US President, whether it's Joe Biden today or tomorrow, 95 00:05:54,059 --> 00:05:59,369 Peter Hartcher: or Donald Trump, from their own parties, would oblige them 96 00:05:59,369 --> 00:06:01,620 Peter Hartcher: to give some sort of support to Israel, but the 97 00:06:01,920 --> 00:06:05,700 Peter Hartcher: extent and nature of it is open for negotiation. But 98 00:06:05,700 --> 00:06:10,170 Peter Hartcher: Israel has more than enough strike power to deal directly 99 00:06:10,230 --> 00:06:15,299 Peter Hartcher: with Iran. So yes, it could easily and quickly become 100 00:06:15,299 --> 00:06:19,740 Peter Hartcher: a one- on- one Israel versus Iran war even without 101 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:22,710 Peter Hartcher: direct US support, although, as I say, it's most likely 102 00:06:22,710 --> 00:06:24,900 Peter Hartcher: that, at the end of the day, the US would weigh 103 00:06:24,900 --> 00:06:28,560 Peter Hartcher: in quite decisively on Israel's hand, in Israel's favor. 104 00:06:29,520 --> 00:06:31,438 Sean Aylmer : Stay with me, Peter, we'll be back in a minute. 105 00:06:38,519 --> 00:06:42,030 Sean Aylmer : I'm speaking to Peter Hartcher, political editor and international editor 106 00:06:42,210 --> 00:06:46,049 Sean Aylmer : of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age. How do 107 00:06:46,050 --> 00:06:48,480 Sean Aylmer : you think Joe Biden's thinking about these sorts of things? 108 00:06:48,480 --> 00:06:51,419 Sean Aylmer : It seems to me there we have Ukraine- Russia, we 109 00:06:51,420 --> 00:06:55,589 Sean Aylmer : have the Indo- Pacific- China, we have Middle East now. 110 00:06:56,129 --> 00:06:58,950 Sean Aylmer : Is that, for the world's placement, is that just business 111 00:06:58,950 --> 00:07:01,409 Sean Aylmer : as usual, or is it a particularly tense time at 112 00:07:01,410 --> 00:07:03,928 Sean Aylmer : the moment with, of course, the poll at the end 113 00:07:03,928 --> 00:07:04,409 Sean Aylmer : of the year? 114 00:07:05,010 --> 00:07:09,419 Peter Hartcher: Joe Biden's top priority is not getting involved in a 115 00:07:09,420 --> 00:07:11,039 Peter Hartcher: war in the Middle East. 116 00:07:11,039 --> 00:07:11,249 Sean Aylmer : Yes. 117 00:07:12,270 --> 00:07:18,480 Peter Hartcher: He's only very reluctantly been supporting Israel financially and militarily 118 00:07:18,600 --> 00:07:23,009 Peter Hartcher: in its confrontation with Hamas and with Iran so far. 119 00:07:23,429 --> 00:07:27,180 Peter Hartcher: But Biden has said directly to Netanyahu, and said publicly 120 00:07:27,660 --> 00:07:33,209 Peter Hartcher: that the Israelis should restrain themselves, should count their effective defense against 121 00:07:33,870 --> 00:07:35,970 Peter Hartcher: the Iranians as a win and put it in the 122 00:07:35,970 --> 00:07:38,729 Peter Hartcher: bank, and return to business as normal and try and 123 00:07:38,730 --> 00:07:41,760 Peter Hartcher: crush the Hamas terrorists, and all the rest of it. 124 00:07:42,059 --> 00:07:45,840 Peter Hartcher: The US, as you've said, is already under severe strain. 125 00:07:46,320 --> 00:07:50,700 Peter Hartcher: The US considers its principle problem, its greatest rival, and 126 00:07:50,700 --> 00:07:56,040 Peter Hartcher: its superpower challenge to be Beijing, not Russia. Russia is 127 00:07:56,280 --> 00:08:00,480 Peter Hartcher: a temporary but acute problem, dealing with Ukraine and threatening 128 00:08:00,599 --> 00:08:04,920 Peter Hartcher: all of Europe, of course, and Israel to be simply 129 00:08:04,949 --> 00:08:09,000 Peter Hartcher: a temporary skirmish while the US girds itself and tries 130 00:08:09,000 --> 00:08:12,900 Peter Hartcher: to prepare itself for the crisis that it sees coming 131 00:08:13,170 --> 00:08:16,289 Peter Hartcher: with Xi Jinping. So, the last thing that the US 132 00:08:16,290 --> 00:08:19,830 Peter Hartcher: wants, any of the people in the security establishment, but 133 00:08:19,830 --> 00:08:23,820 Peter Hartcher: also Biden and Trump, the last thing they want is 134 00:08:23,820 --> 00:08:26,130 Peter Hartcher: for the US to get caught up in a war, a full- 135 00:08:26,130 --> 00:08:29,100 Peter Hartcher: scale war in Israel. And I just point out to 136 00:08:29,100 --> 00:08:32,760 Peter Hartcher: you that Donald Trump, although he likes to boast about 137 00:08:32,760 --> 00:08:35,700 Peter Hartcher: how supportive he is of Israel and what a great 138 00:08:35,700 --> 00:08:39,750 Peter Hartcher: friend of Israel he is, he's actually backed off from 139 00:08:39,750 --> 00:08:42,239 Peter Hartcher: supporting Israel in the last few weeks. He has said 140 00:08:42,840 --> 00:08:46,080 Peter Hartcher: a couple of times now, he said, " Netanyahu should get 141 00:08:46,080 --> 00:08:51,030 Peter Hartcher: out of Gaza now. Netanyahu is losing the global PR 142 00:08:51,030 --> 00:08:54,929 Peter Hartcher: war. It's going on too long, it's too horrible, and 143 00:08:54,929 --> 00:09:00,088 Peter Hartcher: Israel needs to get out." So, Trump's actually withdrawn at 144 00:09:00,090 --> 00:09:03,750 Peter Hartcher: least his rhetorical support for Israel, even though Joe Biden 145 00:09:04,110 --> 00:09:06,330 Peter Hartcher: obviously has remained pretty steadfast. 146 00:09:06,809 --> 00:09:09,030 Sean Aylmer : One quick one, a final one. What does it all 147 00:09:09,030 --> 00:09:12,240 Sean Aylmer : mean for Anthony Albanese in Australia? Are we far enough 148 00:09:12,240 --> 00:09:16,350 Sean Aylmer : away for it to not really impact domestic politics apart 149 00:09:16,350 --> 00:09:18,900 Sean Aylmer : from the occasional Penny Wong skirmish, or is there more 150 00:09:18,929 --> 00:09:19,590 Sean Aylmer : to it for us? 151 00:09:20,100 --> 00:09:22,830 Peter Hartcher: There's more to it. And the really big picture here 152 00:09:22,830 --> 00:09:27,780 Peter Hartcher: is that Australia also expects that, in the next years, 153 00:09:28,230 --> 00:09:34,108 Peter Hartcher: pressure from China and China's campaign for global dominance will 154 00:09:34,109 --> 00:09:36,720 Peter Hartcher: come to a head, that Australia wants, as far as 155 00:09:36,720 --> 00:09:41,100 Peter Hartcher: possible, US support, and Australia, like Biden, like Trump, the 156 00:09:41,100 --> 00:09:46,319 Peter Hartcher: last thing they want is to be distracted, diverted politically, 157 00:09:46,380 --> 00:09:53,069 Peter Hartcher: militarily, financially in a war against Iran. So really, nobody 158 00:09:53,070 --> 00:09:58,020 Peter Hartcher: wants this war except for, perhaps, we'll see, Netanyahu, and 159 00:09:58,020 --> 00:10:01,140 Peter Hartcher: it must be said, Sean, some of the Sunni- Arab 160 00:10:01,140 --> 00:10:06,060 Peter Hartcher: states of the Middle East would cheer on Israel striking 161 00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:08,730 Peter Hartcher: Iran and taking it on in a war and perhaps 162 00:10:08,730 --> 00:10:14,220 Peter Hartcher: even destroying its nuclear facilities. The Saudis, the Emiratis, the 163 00:10:14,220 --> 00:10:17,040 Peter Hartcher: Egyptians, they would be quite happy for that to happen. 164 00:10:17,040 --> 00:10:19,679 Peter Hartcher: But certainly, from the Australian viewpoint, we do not want 165 00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:23,910 Peter Hartcher: our principal ally distracted and diverted in an avoidable war. 166 00:10:24,300 --> 00:10:26,130 Sean Aylmer : Peter, thank you for talking to Fear & Greed. 167 00:10:26,460 --> 00:10:27,090 Peter Hartcher: Always a pleasure. 168 00:10:27,570 --> 00:10:30,420 Sean Aylmer : That was Peter Hartcher, political editor and international editor of 169 00:10:30,420 --> 00:10:32,670 Sean Aylmer : the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age. This is The 170 00:10:32,670 --> 00:10:35,189 Sean Aylmer : Fear & Greed Business Interview. Join us every morning for the 171 00:10:35,190 --> 00:10:38,670 Sean Aylmer : full episode of Fear & Greed, Australia's best business podcast. I'm 172 00:10:38,670 --> 00:10:40,350 Sean Aylmer : Sean Aylmer, enjoy your day.