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Speaker 1: Five double a nice with Matthew pantalas well. As you know.

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Speaker 1: The Liberal Party today formally announced what we expected yesterday,

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Speaker 1: they will not take net zero by twenty fifty to

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Speaker 1: the next federal election. What does that mean? Firstly, they

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Speaker 1: have to win that election for this to become policy,

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Speaker 1: an actual law, I suppose, But what does it actually mean?

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Speaker 1: No net zero by twenty fifty? Does that mean they

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Speaker 1: don't do something? I was driving around thinking what does

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Speaker 1: this actually mean? And then I thought, well, who better

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Speaker 1: to have a chat with than somebody right across all

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Speaker 1: of this. I've had many chats with her before. From

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Speaker 1: Deacon Uni. Professor sam Hepburn is on the line, Samantha Hepburn,

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Speaker 1: good evening to you, Thank you so much for your time.

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Speaker 2: Good evenings.

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Speaker 1: So realistically, politically perhaps it's a smart move. Well we'll

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Speaker 1: know soon enough in the polls and at election time, etc.

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Speaker 1: But what does it mean for us all? No net

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Speaker 1: zero assuming they win, of course, which is a big

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Speaker 1: ask in itself, given where they they are. Does it

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Speaker 1: mean they don't do something? Now? What happens?

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Speaker 2: Yea, And I guess we start off been understanding what

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Speaker 2: net zero means. It generally refers to balancing greenhouse gases

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Speaker 2: that a country emits with the amount of the moves.

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Speaker 2: So the idea, and it's been put in legislation, is

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Speaker 2: that we're going to cut emissions steeply so that we

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Speaker 2: will achieve basically, you know, a neutral framework by twenty fifty.

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Speaker 2: So that's in both state and federal climate change acts.

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Speaker 2: So the nationals have announced they're going to abandon their

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Speaker 2: commitment to net zero, and then the Liberal Party of

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Speaker 2: course has decided to follow that and scrap it from

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Speaker 2: their policy platform. So that doesn't necessarily mean that the

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Speaker 2: formal policy goal is a time frame. So if we

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Speaker 2: look at it strictly, what they're saying is we're not

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Speaker 2: going to achieve it by twenty fifty. They may still

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Speaker 2: aim to reduce emissions, but the specific target and the

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Speaker 2: timeframe have been reduced. They're saying they're going to remain

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Speaker 2: in the Paris Agreement and submit other types of commitments.

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Speaker 2: You know that we have five yearly nationally determined contributions,

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Speaker 2: that's what these are called, where you can set out,

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Speaker 2: you know, how you're going to contribute to a global

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Speaker 2: reduction of emissions. So presumably that might be what they're

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Speaker 2: talking about when they're saying they're going to remain in

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Speaker 2: the Paris Agreement. But clearly there's a fundamental shift in

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Speaker 2: policy direction, so less emphasis on long term zero emissions

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Speaker 2: and possibly more emphasis on delaying or scaling back emissions.

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Speaker 2: Domestic implications. You know, I agree with you politically it

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Speaker 2: might be a savvy move. Targets do give certainty to

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Speaker 2: businesses just as community about what is coming. The change

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Speaker 2: might create uncertainty in the renewable energy sector. If industries

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Speaker 2: are sort of you know, planning for transition, then I

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Speaker 2: guess there's international maybe international credibilities. We've made a commitment

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Speaker 2: under the Powers Agreement, so will that weaken our global

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Speaker 2: standing on climate commitments. But the arguments for abandoning, you know,

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Speaker 2: there's clearly a strategic frame. They're arguing that Australia contributes

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Speaker 2: only a small share of global emissions. I think it's

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Speaker 2: approximately one percent, and that the cost of aggressively kind

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Speaker 2: of you know, pursuing net zero may be too high,

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Speaker 2: particularly in energy intensive sectors. But I don't think we

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Speaker 2: can say it necessarily means that the Liberals deny climate

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Speaker 2: change or refuse to reduce emissions. Altogether, and indeed the

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Speaker 2: National they're not denying climbs lights at all.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, all right, now the Opposition leader saying she

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Speaker 1: won't let Australians be crushed by rising power bills, and

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Speaker 1: I hear commentary today. Power bills over the last few

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Speaker 1: years have risen fifteen, twenty, even thirty percent, So I

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Speaker 1: mean that is a point. But will this lead to

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Speaker 1: a reduction in power.

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Speaker 2: Bills, Well, it's going to be very interesting to see.

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Speaker 2: I mean, there's not necessarily a direct correlation between emission

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Speaker 2: reduction and the shift to renewables and increase in power bills.

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Speaker 2: There is, particularly on the East Coast and obviously the

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Speaker 2: East Coast gas market, there are concerns the power the

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Speaker 2: increase in energy is connected to know, the rise in

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Speaker 2: LNG exports, so that is a possible issue, but you know,

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Speaker 2: we're not I'm not denying that that there may well

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Speaker 2: also be cost associated with renewable transition, but I don't

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Speaker 2: necessarily I think that's the most you know that the

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Speaker 2: price intensive area that it's not really the reason why

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Speaker 2: your power bill is.

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Speaker 1: High, largely because we.

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Speaker 2: Haven't really even though there's a lot of activity in

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Speaker 2: the renewable energy sector shifting hasn't really been as extensive,

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Speaker 2: and we're still heavily reliant on colon.

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Speaker 1: Gas, yes, of course, but and you know, we certainly

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Speaker 1: exported around the world to countries that are using it

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Speaker 1: in ever increasing numbers. Somebody rang through just last night

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Speaker 1: to tell me that coal use around the world in

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Speaker 1: nineteen ninety seven, Well, China's using that amount right now.

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Speaker 1: The total what the world used back in ninety seven,

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Speaker 1: China is using in one year now. And of course

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Speaker 1: it's risen around the world now.

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Speaker 2: And this is this sort of this is a problem

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Speaker 2: with these global you know, with global commitments like this.

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Speaker 2: And I guess the energy security cost concerns mean that

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Speaker 2: the center right opposition has decided to basically remove the

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Speaker 2: formal pledge and focus more presumably on flexible targets and

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Speaker 2: to have maybe different pathways to a mission reduction. I

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Speaker 2: guess the concern is whether or not abandoning net zero

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Speaker 2: will have an impact on Austraia's economic output, and the

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Speaker 2: Climate Council thinks it will. Whether or not government spending

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Speaker 2: on disaster recovery from climate events would increase, that's possible.

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Speaker 2: There are reports suggesting that under an abandonment scenario, it

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Speaker 2: could increase by seven times by twenty ninety. Now, look,

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Speaker 2: there's a prediction we don't know and you know, yes,

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Speaker 2: there's the other factor associated with if we fail to

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Speaker 2: pursue net zero risk, we limit access to sustainable capital

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Speaker 2: markets and that might increase business costs, miss out on

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Speaker 2: green export opportunities. So there's a range of different elements here,

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Speaker 2: and it's all predictive at the moment. But I think

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Speaker 2: what you said at the start is correct. Matter this

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Speaker 2: is you know politics.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, that's right, and that's what they're aiming for

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Speaker 1: at the moment, and having a differentiation to the Labor

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Speaker 1: Party to the government, which is you know, kind of

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Speaker 1: smart politics. I suppose to a point, just whether the

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Speaker 1: community goes along with it, and that is what we'll

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Speaker 1: remain to see. I was interested in much you said

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Speaker 1: about business and uncertainty, and I think that is critical

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Speaker 1: to everything too, isn't it in terms of investment, in

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Speaker 1: terms of jobs, and ultimately in terms of power prices,

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Speaker 1: which is what we all care about at the end

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Speaker 1: of the day.

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Speaker 2: It's what we all care about. It's a huge issue

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Speaker 2: and we're all experiencing it, and we're all concerned. We're

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Speaker 2: all trying to sort of you know, taste back to

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Speaker 2: work out you know, where these costs, what what the

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Speaker 2: source of all these increasing costs is. And I think

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Speaker 2: it's multi factorial, you know, like you can get issues

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Speaker 2: all around the place. So you know, obviously exporting L

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Speaker 2: and G and having to compete for gas on the

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Speaker 2: international spot while we're using gas as a transition resource.

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Speaker 2: There's also going to be cost with the renewable shift.

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Speaker 2: And yes, there are also costs with net zero, but

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Speaker 2: there may also, as I said before, be costs with

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Speaker 2: not being involved in a sort of global transition.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Absolutely, all right, Sam, I appreciate your time this evening,

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Speaker 1: Thank you so much, and we'll see how it all

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Speaker 1: plays out.

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Speaker 2: It's an absolute pleasure, Thank thank you.

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Speaker 1: Professor Samantha Hepburn, Professor of Law at Deacon University. On

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Speaker 1: net zero and what it actually all means should firstly,

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Speaker 1: the Liberals win the next federal election, and that in

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Speaker 1: itself is a mountain that may prove in surmountable given

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Speaker 1: the headstart the Labor Party has in the number of seats.

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Speaker 1: But politics is politics. You never know