WEBVTT - Why the peace plan for Gaza has stalled 

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Daniel James and you're listening to seven AM. Two

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<v Speaker 1>months ago, Israel and her mass agreed to the first

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<v Speaker 1>phase of a ceasefire plan for Gaza. But since the

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<v Speaker 1>truce began on October tenth, Gaza authorities say Israel has

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<v Speaker 1>carried out now the eight hundred attacks, killing almost four

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<v Speaker 1>hundred people, including a recent strike targeting as senior Hamas

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<v Speaker 1>commander Israel. Meanwhile, his militants have reportedly violated the ceasefire,

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<v Speaker 1>killing at least three Israeli soldiers, and as Amas refuses

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<v Speaker 1>to disarm, Washington seems to have gone silent today. Middle

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<v Speaker 1>East correspondent for The Economist, Greg Carlstrom, and why plans

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<v Speaker 1>for peace have stalled and who may end up running Gaza.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Friday, December nineteenth. Greg. There is currently on paper

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<v Speaker 1>a ceasefire in Gaza, but people is still being killed.

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<v Speaker 1>Tell me a bit some of the reports you're getting

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<v Speaker 1>from paple on the ground in Gaza right now? What's

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<v Speaker 1>the situation like?

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<v Speaker 2>It's bleak, and particularly over the past few weeks. It's

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<v Speaker 2>not just that there are ongoing violations of the ceasefire,

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<v Speaker 2>both by Israel and by Hamas.

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<v Speaker 3>It's been sixty four days since a ceasefire was struck,

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<v Speaker 3>but the child wreckage of this car as evidence of

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<v Speaker 3>its weakness. Indeed, there have been Israeli strikes already on

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<v Speaker 3>fifty one of those days.

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<v Speaker 2>It's also has a lot to do with the conditions

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<v Speaker 2>in Gaza right now. We saw earlier this month a

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<v Speaker 2>very strong winter storm that swept through that hit the

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<v Speaker 2>eastern Mediterranean, and the images that came out of Gaza

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<v Speaker 2>were really apocalyptic.

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<v Speaker 3>On Unis medics say eight month old were half Abu

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<v Speaker 3>Jazzar died of exposure to cold after the floodwaters inundated

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<v Speaker 3>have family shelter on Wednesday night.

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<v Speaker 2>Entire tent cities were flooded. People were trying to dig

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<v Speaker 2>ditches with their bare hands to try and redirect at

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<v Speaker 2>least some of the water away from their tents. They

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<v Speaker 2>were standing all night holding their children in the air

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<v Speaker 2>so that their kids wouldn't be in the freezing water.

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<v Speaker 2>There were at least four babies that died of hypothermia.

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<v Speaker 2>There were several other people killed when high winds knocked

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<v Speaker 2>down walls concrete walls onto their tents or onto their

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<v Speaker 2>shelters and crushed them to death.

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<v Speaker 4>I don't have a tent or anything to make her warm.

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<v Speaker 4>I fed her and there was nothing wrong with her.

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<v Speaker 4>When we woke up, we found the rain over her

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<v Speaker 4>and the wind on her, and the girl died of cold. Suddenly.

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<v Speaker 2>This is what life is like in Gaza right now.

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<v Speaker 2>Two months on from the ceasefire. There's been no progress

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<v Speaker 2>on the sort of long term political goals, the effort

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<v Speaker 2>at reconstruction, all of these things that were meant to

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<v Speaker 2>happen in phase two of the sea they're just not

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<v Speaker 2>happening yet.

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<v Speaker 1>So what I was saying progress on the second phase,

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<v Speaker 1>does that mean we're still stuck in phase one of disagreement?

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<v Speaker 5>In practice? I think we are.

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<v Speaker 2>So you go back to what was signed in October

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<v Speaker 2>and the way everyone interpreted it.

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<v Speaker 5>As you say, there are two main phases to it.

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<v Speaker 2>The first was what happened immediately after the deal was signed.

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<v Speaker 2>The fighting largely stopped in Gaza. Hamas freed the remaining

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<v Speaker 2>Israeli hostages from captivity. The Israeli army pulled back from

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<v Speaker 2>the main population centers in Gaza to what's known as

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<v Speaker 2>the Yellow Line, which is a boundary now that splits

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<v Speaker 2>the half of Gaza controlled by Israel from the half

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<v Speaker 2>controlled by Hamas. All of that, again happened in the

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<v Speaker 2>first few days after this agreement was implemented. Phase two

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<v Speaker 2>is meant to play out over a longer term. What's

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<v Speaker 2>meant to happen according to this deal is Israel carried

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<v Speaker 2>out that first withdrawal once the hostages were freed in October.

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<v Speaker 2>There are meant to be several subsequent withdrawals once international

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<v Speaker 2>peacekeepers go into Gaza, and then once they certify that

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<v Speaker 2>Hamas has gone through some process of disarmament. But Hamas,

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<v Speaker 2>of course, refuses to disarm. It's been very clear about

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<v Speaker 2>that throughout two years of war. It has stuck to

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<v Speaker 2>that position since the ceasefire took effect. And if they

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<v Speaker 2>don't disarm, then that will preclude further is rarely withdrawal,

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<v Speaker 2>or probably preclude any serious effort at reconstruction. And so

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<v Speaker 2>that yellow line, which is meant to be again a

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<v Speaker 2>temporary interim boundary between the two halves of Gaza, is

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<v Speaker 2>looking more and more like it might become permanent. And

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<v Speaker 2>we've heard the Israeli Army chief among other senior officials

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<v Speaker 2>start to talk about it that way, start to talk

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<v Speaker 2>about the possibility that Israel will not withdraw any further

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<v Speaker 2>from Gaza, and this is just going to become formalized.

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<v Speaker 1>So it seems like we're essentially at a stand off here.

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<v Speaker 1>Israel and Trump say that they want her mass disarming,

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<v Speaker 1>and that's non negotiable. Her mass wants to see Israel

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<v Speaker 1>withdraw first. So is that where things are at greg

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<v Speaker 1>a stale.

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<v Speaker 5>Might more or less.

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<v Speaker 2>And if you look at what the Americans are doing

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<v Speaker 2>right now, I think it's very telling. The plan that

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<v Speaker 2>some of Donald Trump's allies have been pushing in recent weeks.

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<v Speaker 2>They have different euphemisms for it. They call it alternative

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<v Speaker 2>safe communities, or model communities, or there's various terms of art.

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<v Speaker 2>But the idea is to start doing small scale reconstruction

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<v Speaker 2>on the Israeli controlled side of this yellow line, So

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<v Speaker 2>in Israeli occupied Gaza, to build small villages or hamlets

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<v Speaker 2>that can each house a few thousand Palestinians. The idea

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<v Speaker 2>is they would have a school, a clinic, other basic services,

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<v Speaker 2>and this would serve as a model for reconstruction. If

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<v Speaker 2>you listen to the way Trump's allies are selling it,

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<v Speaker 2>there's a number of problems with this plan, starting with

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<v Speaker 2>the fact that almost no Palestinians live in the.

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<v Speaker 5>Israeli occupied half of Gaza.

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<v Speaker 2>Almost the entire two million population is to the west

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<v Speaker 2>of the Yellow line. So you would have to convince

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<v Speaker 2>people to move into Israeli occupied territory. No doubt Hamas

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<v Speaker 2>would try to dissuade them from doing that, perhaps it

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<v Speaker 2>would even threaten their relatives who remained in the controlled.

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<v Speaker 5>Half of Gaza.

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<v Speaker 2>Then once they get there, it's not at all clear

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<v Speaker 2>will they have any freedom of movement or will they

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<v Speaker 2>essentially be locked in these towns which are again surrounded

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<v Speaker 2>by Israeli controlled territory. It seems like a very unworkable

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<v Speaker 2>scheme in a lot of ways. But the fact that

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<v Speaker 2>that is the focus for some of Donald Trump's advisors,

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<v Speaker 2>I think it's almost a tacit admission that the rest

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<v Speaker 2>of the ceasefire plan is not moving forward, that talk

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<v Speaker 2>of new governance and reconstruction in the whole of Gaza

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<v Speaker 2>is just not happening right now, and so they are

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<v Speaker 2>looking for these small scale initiatives that they can show off,

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<v Speaker 2>even though again it seems they're very unworkable.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up one, no one wants to join Trump's peacekeeping

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<v Speaker 1>force Greg, I want to talk about how the ceasefire

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<v Speaker 1>is supposed to be being enforced at the moment. Who

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<v Speaker 1>is responsible for shippeting things to the next phase.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, we're waiting for announcements on that. What is meant

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<v Speaker 2>to happen according to the deal in theory is there's

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<v Speaker 2>something called the Board of Peace. Donald Trump is the

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<v Speaker 2>chairman of that board, and then there will be other

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<v Speaker 2>world leaders and grandees appointed to the board.

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<v Speaker 6>The leaders of the Arab world, Israel and everybody involved

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<v Speaker 6>asked me to do this, so it would be headed

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<v Speaker 6>by a gentleman known as President Donald J. Trump of

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<v Speaker 6>the United States.

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<v Speaker 7>It's what I want is some extra work to do,

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<v Speaker 7>but it's so important that I'm willing to do it,

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<v Speaker 7>and we'll do it right. And we're going to put

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<v Speaker 7>leaders from other countries on and leaders that are very

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<v Speaker 7>distinguished leaders.

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<v Speaker 2>And then there will be a transitional authority it's called

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<v Speaker 2>a government that will have Palestinian representation that will be

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<v Speaker 2>in charge of running the day to day affairs of Gaza. Again,

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<v Speaker 2>we're two plus months into the ceasefire. Now no one

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<v Speaker 2>has been appointed to either of those bodies. Trump has

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<v Speaker 2>been teasing big announcements for weeks. He keeps saying that

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<v Speaker 2>he's about to announce members of the board, but those

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<v Speaker 2>announcements haven't come, and my understanding is they may not

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<v Speaker 2>happen until after the new year.

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<v Speaker 1>Now, what's the delight great with nancying the board?

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<v Speaker 2>I think some of it is the usual Donald Trump chaos.

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<v Speaker 2>I think he was very engaged in September and October

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<v Speaker 2>in trying to push the ceasefire forward, and then once

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<v Speaker 2>the deal was signed, you know, it seems as if

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<v Speaker 2>he thinks everything is fixed in Gaza. Now we have

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<v Speaker 2>peace in the Middle East and everything is wonderful. And

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<v Speaker 2>I was speaking to an official from a country in

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<v Speaker 2>the region last week and I asked this person, when

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<v Speaker 2>was the last time your government heard from Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 2>personally about Gaza? And the response was in October when

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<v Speaker 2>the deal was signed. So it's been two months where

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<v Speaker 2>Trump has not personally reached out to one of the

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<v Speaker 2>countries in the region that is supposed to play a

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<v Speaker 2>big role in post war Gaza. That's one issue, and

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<v Speaker 2>then I think there's just been a lot of as

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<v Speaker 2>always in the Middle East, a lot of jockeying for

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<v Speaker 2>power amongst countries in the region. Everybody wants to have

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<v Speaker 2>a say in post war Gaza, but not everyone can

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<v Speaker 2>agree on who should have a say. So Turkey wants

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<v Speaker 2>to play a major role in reconstruction. Israel as opposed

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<v Speaker 2>to that because it thinks Turkey is too sympathetic to Hamas.

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<v Speaker 2>There's been similar criticism directed at Katar and the Persian Gulf.

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<v Speaker 2>Other Gulf states are all jockeying for power within this

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<v Speaker 2>transitional authority, and so they just can't agree even amongst

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<v Speaker 2>themselves on who they want to lead this effort.

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<v Speaker 1>US officials have talked about deploying an international stabilization force

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<v Speaker 1>to calling it as early as January. So what details

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<v Speaker 1>do need to be figured out for that to happen?

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<v Speaker 2>Very minor detail, which is who's going to join it,

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<v Speaker 2>where the troops are going to come from. There's still

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<v Speaker 2>no answer to that question yet. The Americans have been

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<v Speaker 2>shopping this idea around, not only since the ceasefire was

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<v Speaker 2>signed in October, but for months before that. It's been clear,

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<v Speaker 2>I think to everyone that you would need some sort

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<v Speaker 2>of international force to go into Gauza because the alternative

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<v Speaker 2>is open ended Israeli occupation. This is going to be

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<v Speaker 2>an American led initiative. Trump is talking about appointing a

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<v Speaker 2>two star American general who would oversee.

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<v Speaker 5>This future stabilization force.

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<v Speaker 2>None of the Arab countries really want to take part

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<v Speaker 2>because they don't want the image of Arab troops policing Palestinians.

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<v Speaker 2>That's going to be very unpopular with their domestic constituencies

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<v Speaker 2>at home. The White House has been talking to other

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<v Speaker 2>countries Muslim majority but non Arab countries, Azerbaijan, Indonesia.

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<v Speaker 5>There has been some outreach.

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<v Speaker 2>To Pakistan, I think as well, but no firm commitments

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<v Speaker 2>from any of these countries. If you talk to advisors

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<v Speaker 2>to the President of Azerbaijan, for example, they'll say, we're

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<v Speaker 2>willing to send a contingent to Gaza, but it has

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<v Speaker 2>to be part of a broader multinational force, and we

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<v Speaker 2>don't want our troops to be policing in Gaza city,

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<v Speaker 2>or in Rufa or in the populated.

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<v Speaker 5>Areas of Gaza.

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<v Speaker 2>They're willing to serve as maybe a monitoring force and

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<v Speaker 2>a border security force along the Yellow Line and along

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<v Speaker 2>Gaza's border with Egypt, but they don't want to be

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<v Speaker 2>in a literal peacekeeping role where they are going neighborhood

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<v Speaker 2>by neighborhood trying to disarm Hamas. So there's a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of opposition from not just Arab countries, but anyone who's

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<v Speaker 2>been approached about joining this force.

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<v Speaker 1>So as we approach the end of twenty twenty five, GREG,

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<v Speaker 1>there's a lot to watch out for what the Stabilization

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<v Speaker 1>Force may look like and what its mandate might be,

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<v Speaker 1>as well as the Board of Peace that will act

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<v Speaker 1>as a temporary government. So where does this leave Palestinians

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of determining Gaza's future and their own future?

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<v Speaker 2>I think with a very limited role, unfortunately, in determining that.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean again, there is meant to be Palestinian representation

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<v Speaker 2>on this transitional government, but we don't know who these

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<v Speaker 2>Palestinians will be. We don't know if they will be

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<v Speaker 2>people from Gaza or from the West Bank or from

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<v Speaker 2>the Palestinian diaspora. So how much say the Palestinians of

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<v Speaker 2>Gaza will have over their future is really unclear. And

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<v Speaker 2>I think the longer it goes on like this, the

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<v Speaker 2>longer we don't have any progress on Phase two of

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<v Speaker 2>the deal, the more pressure there is going to be

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<v Speaker 2>on people to try and leave Gaza, which of course

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<v Speaker 2>has been the dream of the Israeli far right throughout

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<v Speaker 2>the war. They wanted to expel huge numbers of Palestinians

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<v Speaker 2>and then reoccupy and resettle Gaza. They weren't able to

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<v Speaker 2>do that during the war. But something I keep hearing

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<v Speaker 2>when I speak to Palestinians is maybe Israel will achieve

0:13:14.960 --> 0:13:17.520
<v Speaker 2>that through peace. What they couldn't achieve through war, maybe

0:13:17.559 --> 0:13:26.200
<v Speaker 2>they will achieve through peace. I don't think imminently they're

0:13:26.240 --> 0:13:32.480
<v Speaker 2>going to start building settlements and moving Israeli civilians into Gaza,

0:13:32.600 --> 0:13:35.320
<v Speaker 2>but I do think that yellow line is going to

0:13:35.360 --> 0:13:39.360
<v Speaker 2>become a more and more formal boundary. And if you

0:13:39.400 --> 0:13:41.559
<v Speaker 2>go back and look at the history of how the

0:13:41.600 --> 0:13:44.559
<v Speaker 2>occupation started in the West Bank, I mean before there

0:13:44.559 --> 0:13:47.920
<v Speaker 2>were civilian settlements there. It began with the military setting

0:13:47.960 --> 0:13:51.280
<v Speaker 2>up outposts in the West Bank, and years went by

0:13:51.320 --> 0:13:54.160
<v Speaker 2>and eventually you had what has become.

0:13:54.280 --> 0:13:56.800
<v Speaker 5>A large settler population now.

0:13:56.880 --> 0:13:59.600
<v Speaker 2>So even if that isn't the intent in the beginning,

0:13:59.640 --> 0:14:02.920
<v Speaker 2>I think long term Israeli control of half of Gaza,

0:14:03.520 --> 0:14:06.319
<v Speaker 2>it at least opens the possibility that at some point

0:14:06.360 --> 0:14:07.760
<v Speaker 2>the right wing will get its wishes.

0:14:13.120 --> 0:14:15.760
<v Speaker 1>Greg, thank you so much. For your reporting this year.

0:14:15.760 --> 0:14:17.560
<v Speaker 1>It's been really great and thank you once again for

0:14:17.600 --> 0:14:18.280
<v Speaker 1>coming on the show.

0:14:18.440 --> 0:14:19.920
<v Speaker 5>Thanks for having me, it's always a pleasure.

0:14:35.320 --> 0:14:38.160
<v Speaker 1>Also in the use as in the Alberanezi has announced

0:14:38.200 --> 0:14:41.360
<v Speaker 1>new laws to crack down on anti Semitism, including Tophane

0:14:41.440 --> 0:14:44.920
<v Speaker 1>hate speech laws. The Prime Minister's five point plan also

0:14:45.000 --> 0:14:47.760
<v Speaker 1>gives new powers to the Home Affairs Minister to cancel

0:14:47.920 --> 0:14:51.280
<v Speaker 1>or reject visas for people who spread hate, and there

0:14:51.280 --> 0:14:54.080
<v Speaker 1>will be an Education task Force led by David Gonski.

0:14:54.520 --> 0:14:56.560
<v Speaker 1>His job will be to work with the anti Semitism

0:14:56.640 --> 0:15:00.840
<v Speaker 1>Envoid Gillian Siegel on her recommendations to reform the curriculum

0:15:00.920 --> 0:15:04.240
<v Speaker 1>to better educate students on the Holocaust. We'll have a

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<v Speaker 1>full reporting the government's response to the Bondai massacre with

0:15:07.360 --> 0:15:10.760
<v Speaker 1>Paul bon Jordo tomorrow. And the funeral for the youngest

0:15:10.800 --> 0:15:13.160
<v Speaker 1>victim of the Bondai attacks has been held in Sydney.

0:15:13.840 --> 0:15:16.800
<v Speaker 1>Crowds gathered yesterday afternoon to commemorate the life of ten

0:15:16.880 --> 0:15:20.080
<v Speaker 1>year old Matilda, who was killed by a government on Sunday.

0:15:20.920 --> 0:15:23.160
<v Speaker 1>I met A Lahmed, the man who disarmed one of

0:15:23.160 --> 0:15:25.960
<v Speaker 1>the government is still in the hospital and is suspected

0:15:26.000 --> 0:15:30.320
<v Speaker 1>to want to go a third surgery today. I'm Daniel James.

0:15:30.320 --> 0:15:32.360
<v Speaker 1>This is seven am. Thanks for listening.