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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed. Business news you can use today.

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Speaker 1: Local investors are hoping for a benign inflation reading this

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Speaker 1: week amid all the global turmoil, but if they don't

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Speaker 1: get one, then a rate hike next week is likely.

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Speaker 1: Australia's largest steel company, blue Scope, shops itself around, and

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Speaker 1: the push to replace Liberal leader Susan Lee intensifies. Plus

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Speaker 1: protests My Australia Day across the nation, and the story

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Speaker 1: of a former flight attendant who conned his way onto

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Speaker 1: hundreds of free flights by posing as a pilot. It

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Speaker 1: is Tuesday, the twenty seventh of January twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael. Doesn't it feel like the summer breaks over?

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Speaker 1: Oh? Everyone is back to Workay, So, good morning. If

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Speaker 1: you have been if you have been on holidays for

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Speaker 1: an extended period and you're coming back to fear and

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Speaker 1: greed for the first time, welcome back. Let's get into it.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning. Get ready for a big

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Speaker 1: week for local markets. Inflation data due for release tomorrow,

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Speaker 1: and that's set to determine whether the RBA hikes interest

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Speaker 1: rates next week. That is significant.

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Speaker 2: It is, and bond markets think there is a better

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Speaker 2: than even chance of a rate hike in eight days

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Speaker 2: time after the Reserve Bank Board meets. Annual inflation is

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Speaker 2: tip to come in around three point six percent when

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Speaker 2: the bureau releases it's a data tomorrow.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: The Reserve Bank's forecast three point five percent the all

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Speaker 2: important underlying rate, that's what we care about. It's likely

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Speaker 2: to print at about zero point eight percent for the quarter,

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Speaker 2: three point two percent for the year. That's what we're hoping.

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Speaker 2: Anything above that gives the Reserve Bank ample evidence alongside

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Speaker 2: strong labor force figures last week, to increase interest rates

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Speaker 2: three point two percent or less could enable the Central

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Speaker 2: Bank to stay on hold. But Michael, obviously i'm reading

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Speaker 2: Tea Le's here. Everything does remain on the table. But

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Speaker 2: it really is a very very big week for the economy.

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Speaker 2: It's a very very big a days really because this

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Speaker 2: will impact equities, it will impact the Aussie dollar, It

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Speaker 2: obviously will impact bond markets, which given the geopolitical landscape

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Speaker 2: at the moment, is very very significant.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, because we've got all of this going on at home,

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Speaker 1: but overseas there have been some big moves in markets,

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Speaker 1: and it most of the reflects investors getting wary about

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Speaker 1: the US, which of course is the most important market

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Speaker 1: in the world.

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Speaker 2: So it gets a bit techy here. But there's lots

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Speaker 2: going on. For example, in currency markets, the Japanese yen

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Speaker 2: has surged against the US dollar, with suggestions that central

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Speaker 2: banks and both economies might actually step in. That doesn't

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Speaker 2: happen very much. That's kind of extreme. The uas rising

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Speaker 2: against the greenback. It's all about investors worrying about what's

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Speaker 2: going on in the US and thinking about putting their

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Speaker 2: money elsewhere. Japan is particularly interesting because lots of people

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Speaker 2: they call it a carry trade, lots of people they

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Speaker 2: borrow in Japan low interest rates, invest somewhere else, get

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Speaker 2: good returns. If Japanese interest rates are starting to rise,

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Speaker 2: then that whole trade doesn't work so well. So that

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Speaker 2: would be a fundamental reorganization between two of the world's

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Speaker 2: bigause economies. We're not there yet, right, so don't panic,

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Speaker 2: but the signs are there. Ossie dollar continues to try along.

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Speaker 2: It's now fetching more than sixty nine US sents goed

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Speaker 2: on for you. We're also about to high against the

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Speaker 2: Canadian dollar. If you're visiting the US, Michael, you want

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Speaker 2: to duck North, you can do that. Eight in month

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Speaker 2: high against the end goal prices, Gold pushed through five

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Speaker 2: thousand US dollars announced for the first time ever over

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Speaker 2: the past twenty four hours. That of course, reflects its

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Speaker 2: safe haven statu It's also the fact that the US

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Speaker 2: dollar has dropped the price of gold has almost doubled

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Speaker 2: in the past year. When you have a safe haven status,

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Speaker 2: you're not supposed to get a doubling of price. That

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Speaker 2: is quite phenomenal. Some big Wall Street textocs are being

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Speaker 2: dumped over the week. Intel the chip maker, fell seventeen

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Speaker 2: percent in one session. It came out and said Dune

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Speaker 2: quarter might not be as good as it had thought.

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Speaker 2: The steam has come out of the magnificent seven stocks. Apple,

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Speaker 2: for examples, down eight percent this year. Most of the

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Speaker 2: others are flat. There's also Donald Trump's threat to slap

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Speaker 2: one hundred percent tariff in Canadian goods if Prime Minister

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Speaker 2: Mark Carney does any sort of deal with China. Also

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Speaker 2: spooking markets is the US a marta heading towards the

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Speaker 2: Middle East. Trump's saying he's watching Iran very closely on

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Speaker 2: that one. Not helping, of course, the internal unrest in

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Speaker 2: the US over the ice arrests or the ice incident,

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Speaker 2: shall we say, on incidents in Minnesota. Investors are just

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Speaker 2: starting to get weary of the US.

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Speaker 1: Curious about your description of the steam coming out of

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Speaker 1: the Magnificent seven text stocks. Can't imagine too many of

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Speaker 1: those textocks are steam powered. That's true.

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Speaker 2: The heat, the energy is coming yeah, oh yeah.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the buzz. Yeah, it's a minor quibble though, sure, no, no,

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Speaker 1: except totally. That's a very good wrap though. And while

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Speaker 1: all this is going on, you've got Australia, these bigger

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Speaker 1: steelworks company blue Scope shopping around for a buyer.

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Speaker 2: Blue Scope execs were in Korea and Japan talking to

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Speaker 2: representatives from more Posco and Korea Nipon in Japan about

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Speaker 2: the global steel companies taking a stake in the Aussie

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Speaker 2: company or even buying it. According to a couple of

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Speaker 2: media reports, the company we change the Port Kemler steel

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Speaker 2: Works in New South Wales and is currently looking at

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Speaker 2: taking out the Whaler Steel Works in South Australia. Has

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Speaker 2: already knocked back a bit from a consortium including the

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Speaker 2: Stakes family backed SGH and another US group called Steel Dynamics.

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Speaker 2: The winners in all this so far, Michael shareholders. The

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Speaker 2: company's already offered a massive dividend at its February sixteen results,

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Speaker 2: its share prices up twenty six percent this year. Love

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Speaker 2: takeover action here at fear and greed, especially when the

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Speaker 2: shareholders the people winning.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, very exciting quick Breakshawan back in a moment with

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Speaker 1: the rest of the day's business news. Sean's speculation about

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Speaker 1: who will lead the Federal Liberal Party in twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: six as gathering pace, with incumbent Susan Lee facing potential

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Speaker 1: challenges from front bencher Angus Taylor and also backbencher Andrew Hasty.

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Speaker 1: It feels like we have been here before. These are

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Speaker 1: all very familiar names talked about in leadership circles.

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Speaker 2: Yes asked about challenging Lee, Taylor yesterday notably avoided the questions.

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Speaker 2: He said he couldn't add anything because he was a

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Speaker 2: member of the shadow cabinet. Of course, if he wasn't

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Speaker 2: considering it, he could have just said.

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Speaker 1: No, no, it's not a hard word to say.

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Speaker 2: Hasty wasn't much better. He basically said he wouldn't comment

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Speaker 2: on party matters well, just no, probably anyway, a leadership

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Speaker 2: spill could occur as early as next week when Parliament

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Speaker 2: returns and the Deputy liberally a Ted O'Brian doesn't think

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Speaker 2: that'll happen for her part. Lee, when asked if her

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Speaker 2: leadership as over, said absolutely not. It's kind of like

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Speaker 2: when the board of a company comes out and says

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Speaker 2: we have full faith in CEO. You know something's about

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Speaker 2: to happen.

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Speaker 1: The riding's on the wall, then now sew. On Australia

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Speaker 1: Day yesterday a mix of celebration end protests of course,

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Speaker 1: with rallies from both sides held in cities including Sydney,

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Speaker 1: Melbourne and Canberra.

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Speaker 2: There were Invasion Day protests organized by Indigenous Australians as

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Speaker 2: well as Mars for Australia rallies in Melbourne, and brawl

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Speaker 2: broke out at the Mass for Australia rally, and there

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Speaker 2: were clashes between those rally goers and the Invasion Day

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Speaker 2: protesters in Sydney. Former members of the recently disbanded now

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Speaker 2: Nazi group the National Socialist Network helped marshal and anti

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Speaker 2: immigration march in Brisbane. One Nation leader Pauline Hansen attended.

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Speaker 2: She was a focus in many of the marches. Prime

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Speaker 2: inst Anthony Albanezi was in Canberra welcoming new citizens to Australia.

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Speaker 2: Nearly nineteen thousand people from more than one hundred and

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Speaker 2: fifty countries became citizens yesterday. I thought that was an

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Speaker 2: astonishing number of people.

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Speaker 1: Fantastic, Yeah, welcome.

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Speaker 2: I hope they're alllessleately welcome.

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Speaker 1: Yeah maybe. And if you're not, sign up, get on board.

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Speaker 1: Speaking of getting on board, let's talk about that was

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Speaker 1: a terrible segue. We're talking about airlines and on time performance,

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Speaker 1: so it's loosely getting on board. On average, sewn four

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Speaker 1: in five Quantus flights take off within fifteen minutes of

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Speaker 1: their scheduled time, while seventy seven percent of Virgin and

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Speaker 1: seventy four percent of Jet Star are on time. See.

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Speaker 2: I thought that was a pretty good result, particularly since

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Speaker 2: between seventy six seventy eight percent of flights of the

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Speaker 2: carrier's land on time as well. Well. Long term average

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Speaker 2: is actually eighty one point six percent according to I mean, yeah,

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Speaker 2: that's actually pretty poor. Of course. The data comes from

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Speaker 2: my favorite department, my favorite federal department, The GET distills

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Speaker 2: a cup of teable.

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Speaker 1: So here we go.

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Speaker 2: The Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Region Development, Communications, Sports and

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Speaker 2: the Arts.

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Speaker 1: Ditch red CASP.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, ditterders because yeah, perhaps less satisfying. Connus canceled more

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Speaker 2: than three percent of flights just that was at two

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Speaker 2: point two percent. Virgin under two percent. Quanus has taken

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Speaker 2: to trying to get early flights away ahead of schedules.

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Speaker 2: So I've been at the airport, you know, so six

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Speaker 2: or seven in the morning and you're actually leaving ahead

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Speaker 2: of time, and you think, wow, this is great. But

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Speaker 2: the whole idea is that DeLay's constantina during the day,

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Speaker 2: so they're trying to get their flights away. First thing.

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Speaker 2: The route with the best on time arrival record Perth Darwin, okay, right,

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Speaker 2: the worst fifty percent of the time you'll be late

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Speaker 2: Hamilton Island, Sydney holiday makers.

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Speaker 1: That is not a good record to hold, right.

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Speaker 2: Talking of which, Michael, this next time.

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Speaker 1: Oh I have about this? Yeah, you're right. Domino's has

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Speaker 1: become the most shorted stock on the ASX, which is

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Speaker 1: a most unwelcome record. It is not a title that

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Speaker 1: anyone wants because it means investors are punting on the

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Speaker 1: stock falling, and.

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Speaker 2: It has already fallen a long way, from more than

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Speaker 2: one hundred and sixty dollars a share in COVID to

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Speaker 2: about twenty four dollars today. Yet investors reckon it's got

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Speaker 2: more to go. It's basically gone. Domino has gone from

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Speaker 2: fifteen billion dollar company to a two point three billion

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Speaker 2: dollar company. That is a lot of money down the toilet.

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Speaker 2: Of course, the big shareholder is Jack Cowan of Hungry

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Speaker 2: Jack's fame. He owns from memories like mid twenties or

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Speaker 2: something other, so he's lost a lot of money. Then

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Speaker 2: seventeen point three percent of its entire share registry is

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Speaker 2: reported as a short position according to ASEK. Number two

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Speaker 2: males short at Stock Uranium Minor Boss Energy, It's always

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Speaker 2: there or thereabouts. Number three goosman E Gomez. It's had

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Speaker 2: quite the ride. Listed eight months ago, got to forty

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Speaker 2: three bucks a share, now trading about half that level thereabouts.

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Speaker 2: Next on the list Treasury Wine Estates, and then IDP Education.

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Speaker 1: Okay, turning to international news now Sean and protests have

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Speaker 1: continued in Minneapolis and other US cities, As Minnesota Governor

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Speaker 1: Tim Wall said America was at quote an inflection point

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Speaker 1: and repeated calls for US President Donald Trump to remove

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Speaker 1: federal immigration agents from the city.

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Speaker 2: The US president response called for the government to turn

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Speaker 2: over all criminal illegal aliens incarcerated in state prisons for deportation.

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Speaker 2: All this follows the fatal shooting by immigration agents of

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Speaker 2: thirty seven year old intensive care nurse Alex Pretty in

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Speaker 2: Minneapolis over the weekend. US Homeland Security Secretary Christie Nomes

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Speaker 2: said Pretty was shot because he was brandishing a gun. Now,

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Speaker 2: local authority say the gun was legally registered, he was

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Speaker 2: not brandishing it, and he was shot after the gun

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Speaker 2: was removed. According to the BBC, the actions of ICE

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Speaker 2: agents in Minnesota is becoming a major problem for the

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Speaker 2: Trump mid administration. What's different this time around, what's different

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Speaker 2: to Epstein, what's different to Greenland, what's different to Taris.

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Speaker 2: People within the Republican Party are now criticizing Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: on what's going on. And you have the kind of

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Speaker 2: influencers out there, the Joe Rogans of the world, very

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Speaker 2: much vocal against what's going on in Minnesota.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: Trump signaled in an interview at The Wall Street Journal

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Speaker 2: that he might be willing to eventually withdraw ICE agents

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Speaker 2: from the Minneapolis area. He didn't provide a timeframe, but

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Speaker 2: clearly he is rethinking that position.

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Speaker 1: Okay, change of pace now to finish on Sean. How

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Speaker 1: about this story? A former flight attendant conned his way

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Speaker 1: onto hundreds of free flights over four years by posing

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Speaker 1: as a pilot. He's emerged in court Dallas.

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Speaker 2: Popcornick used a fake employer ID card and his inside

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Speaker 2: of knowledge to fly for free across three major airlines.

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Speaker 2: Prosecutors alleged they've led to Pitcornick from Toronto regularly tried

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Speaker 2: to convince staff that he'd be given the jump seat

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Speaker 2: in the cockpit of the aircraft, a seat typically reserved

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Speaker 2: for off judy pilots, trainees or inspectors. Pitcornick, who worked

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Speaker 2: as a steward for a Toronto based airline just between

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Speaker 2: July twenty seventeen and October night, twenty nineteen, now faces

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Speaker 2: twenty years in prison. According to the Telegraph of London,

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Speaker 2: photo show him hopping onto planes traveling across the world

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Speaker 2: New York, London. He was in a floating beach club

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Speaker 2: in Thailand, Los Angeles, Mexico, all for free. In one

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Speaker 2: video uploaded in September twenty twenty two. Pcornick, wearing a

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Speaker 2: Hugo Boss embossed polo shirt, films himself stepping onto a

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Speaker 2: private jet reclining and they led the seat with a

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Speaker 2: glass of wine. Now he has pleaded not guilt to

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Speaker 2: do the chart, so let justice be done here. But

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Speaker 2: I tell you what, it's pretty cool.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you've seen the movie Catch Me If you Can.

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Speaker 2: You haven't on one of the few people who haven't.

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Speaker 2: Everyone says that's like a catch Me if you Can story.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, it's great, which is based on a true

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Speaker 1: story as well by someone who actually did all of

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Speaker 1: this stuff. The biggest risk here is with Dallas Percornick,

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Speaker 1: because if it was ever called on to help out

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Speaker 1: in any kind of meaningful capacity, I suspect it would

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Speaker 1: have been found out rather quickly. Up next, Sean has

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed Q and A Brian Cito from Morning

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Speaker 1: Star DBRs is speaking to you all the way from

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Speaker 1: actually Toronto.

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Speaker 2: You just mentioned it, yes, yes, And so we're talking

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Speaker 2: about em and A In mining. We've had a potentially

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Speaker 2: big deal with Rio Tinto and Glencore talking to each other.

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Speaker 2: What's that mean for BHP when other deals are in

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Speaker 2: the pipeline. Why is there so much going on, plenty

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Speaker 2: going on in M and A at the moment, and

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Speaker 2: particularly in mining, so we talk to Brian about that.

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Speaker 2: Fantastic for anyone interested in mining, but especially anyone interested in investing.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, it's a great. It's coming up next in

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Speaker 1: the Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or

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Speaker 1: at Fearandgreed dot com dot au, which is where you

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Speaker 1: sign up for our free daily newsletter in your inbox

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Speaker 1: every morning by six am. I'll put a link in

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Speaker 1: today's show notes as well. Super easy to sign up.

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Speaker 1: Thank you Sean, Thank you Michael. It's Tuesday, the twenty

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Speaker 1: seventh of January twenty twenty six. Make sure you're following

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Speaker 1: the podcast and join us online on LinkedIn and Instagram.

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Speaker 1: I'm on Thompson. That was Fear and Greed. Have a

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Speaker 1: great day.