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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed, shareholders are set to receive

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Speaker 1: nearly twenty seven billion dollars in dividends at the end

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Speaker 1: of a mediocre reporting season. The Wayala steel Works is

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Speaker 1: still losing one and a half million dollars a day,

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Speaker 1: and Prada is set to buy Versaci. Plus good news

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Speaker 1: for crypto lovers and Star Entertainment on the brink of collapse.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed, Daily business news for people

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Speaker 1: who make their own decisions. It is Tuesday, the fourth

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Speaker 1: of March twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson and good

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Speaker 1: morning Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael, Sean.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning shareholders are set to receive

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Speaker 1: nearly twenty seven billion dollars in dividends during the next

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Speaker 1: seven weeks as the December half profit season wraps up,

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Speaker 1: with the consensus view among investors being that it was

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Speaker 1: actually a pretty ordinary profit season.

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Speaker 2: Mixed is in another way of putting it, Michael. Several

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Speaker 2: analysts note how big share price shifts were, particularly if

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Speaker 2: companies appointed. There are a bunch of companies, not just

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Speaker 2: small caps, but National Australia Bank for example, four s

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Speaker 2: Q middles their share prices dropped or rose really sharply

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Speaker 2: after earnings. That's a bit unusual. A way of measuring

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Speaker 2: the overall profit season is to look at what happened

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Speaker 2: to consensus earnings for the rest of the year. They

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Speaker 2: were downgraded by about one percent, so twenty twenty four

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Speaker 2: to twenty five is now forecast to be the third

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Speaker 2: year in a row for lower earnings. About thirty eight

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Speaker 2: percent of companies beat expectations, thirty nine percent missed expectations,

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Speaker 2: and as we always talk about, share prices are based

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Speaker 2: on expectations, not what happened, but what people think will happen.

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Speaker 2: More than half the company's up to earnings and fifty

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Speaker 2: six percent lifted dividends. About six hundred and twenty million

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Speaker 2: dollars will be paid to investors this week, but the

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Speaker 2: big week is the final week of March. Dividends from

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Speaker 2: Commwealth Bank, BADGPD, Tolstra and others we paid about twelve

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Speaker 2: point six billion dollars. Another way to look at earning

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Speaker 2: season is how to the share market do during the

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Speaker 2: month of February, which is the month where earning season

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Speaker 2: was on four percent, it was down, so all in all,

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Speaker 2: not a great earning season.

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Speaker 1: I think pretty ordinary sums it up reasonably well. They're

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Speaker 1: the numbers which sectors did the best, and of course

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Speaker 1: then which sectors did the worst as well.

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Speaker 2: So big question that one. Let's look at the highlights.

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Speaker 2: Not a great reporting season for the banks. National Australia

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Speaker 2: Bank had a disappointing out look, so too Bendigo and Adelaide. Westpac,

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Speaker 2: to a lesser extent, aine zed a little bit. The

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Speaker 2: flip side was that Commonwealth Bank was really good.

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Speaker 1: Is that unusual for one bank to be kind of

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Speaker 1: out performing the rest to such a significant degree.

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Speaker 2: So it's a bit of an unfair comparison because the

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Speaker 2: Commwealth Bank reports December end, the others report March end,

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Speaker 2: so we've got more details than Commonwealth Bank. It is

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Speaker 2: a little unusual, and Commonwealth Bank still just seems to

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Speaker 2: be outperforming the rest. That particular company is quite incredible.

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Speaker 2: The big miners, well, the bottom line wasn't so good.

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Speaker 2: From BHP, reare tend to orders QEW the outlook wasn't

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Speaker 2: that great. Eye the bit problematic the China story. What

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Speaker 2: I really took out of the resources though, is the

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Speaker 2: importance of copper, and especially for BHP, I suppose you

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Speaker 2: can throw potash as well. So copper is now, we

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Speaker 2: say iron ore is now and coppers the future Coppers now,

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Speaker 2: And you're seeing that in the share prices. Retailers pretty

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Speaker 2: good sales growth. Places like jab Hi Fi and Harvey

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Speaker 2: Norman did well on the back of AI enabled products,

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Speaker 2: Woolies and Coals. Coals sort of winning that battle at

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Speaker 2: the moment. I mean it always goes to and fro.

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Speaker 2: Telstra It actually had a really good result basically on

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Speaker 2: the back of mobile the fact that they're in improving

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Speaker 2: their five G coverage to deal with ericson to do that,

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Speaker 2: still got all sorts of problems in its enterprise business,

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Speaker 2: legacy products, that.

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Speaker 1: Type of thing.

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Speaker 2: The other one which I thought was really interesting was property.

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Speaker 2: Now Goodman Group led the way. It's got about forty

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Speaker 2: five percent of its business now in data centers. But

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Speaker 2: what we found out from the rest center, Vicinity, Dexas, Scotland,

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Speaker 2: et cetera. Residential struggling, but retail, industrial, even office is

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Speaker 2: doing okay again that work from home is fading, the

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Speaker 2: office block, the office tower is back.

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Speaker 1: So bosses are winning.

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Speaker 2: Bosses are winning getting people back.

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Speaker 1: Into the office exactly Okay, so that's reporting season, that's

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Speaker 1: what you say, down four percent.

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Speaker 2: Down four percent for the month of February.

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Speaker 1: Okay, how did markets go yesterday?

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Speaker 2: Well? Up one percent?

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Speaker 1: All right, the top part of that cloring those games back.

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Speaker 2: We don't want to work against our main story of

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Speaker 2: the day, Michael. The ASEX two hundred finished at two

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Speaker 2: hundred and forty six points strong day, or eleven sub

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Speaker 2: indices were higher. About eighty percent of stocks rose. Good

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Speaker 2: day for the miners. Now they fell back on Friday

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Speaker 2: after Donald Trump talked about instituting twenty five percent tariffs

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Speaker 2: and mixicoming Canada. This week another ten percent on China

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Speaker 2: kind of rebounded yesterday. Goodman Group did pretty well. Tech stocks, Telstra, Woodside,

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Speaker 2: they all all did. AKA. Not much corporate news around though,

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Speaker 2: because it's the end of profit season, Michael. We're all

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Speaker 2: very sad about.

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Speaker 1: That, Yes, indeed. But there's some good news Sean at last.

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Speaker 2: For crypto lovers, well, there is in a while.

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Speaker 1: This is something from US President Donald Trump, and he

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Speaker 1: said that a US strategic reserve of digital assets would

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Speaker 1: include bitcoin as well as a few lesser known tokens

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Speaker 1: as well.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, like you know, fort Knox, but all the gold. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: this is the equivalent of Fort Knox for cryptis.

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Speaker 1: That is awesome? Is it actually a wallet? So yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's an image. It doesn't really work as well, does it.

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Speaker 1: It's very small.

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Speaker 2: So Trump signed an executive order supporting digital assets and

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Speaker 2: blockchain technology. He said it create a stockpile of digital assets.

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Speaker 2: Yesterday he came out and said bitcoin and ethereum will

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Speaker 2: be the heart of the reserve, but it will also

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Speaker 2: include Solana, XRP Kadano. They all jumped as a result.

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Speaker 2: In fact, he announced it on truth Social of course,

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Speaker 2: as is his want.

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Speaker 1: Any capital letters, Yes, so let me quote it quite.

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Speaker 2: I will make sure the US is the crypto capital

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Speaker 2: of the world. Fair enough, we are capital letters all

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Speaker 2: through making America great again.

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Speaker 1: You'd expect nothing less.

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Speaker 2: Wouldn't bitcoin junt nearly ten percent back to ninety three

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Speaker 2: thousand US dollars a unit.

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Speaker 1: It feels appropriate that we're talking about kind of the

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Speaker 1: Fort Knox of crypto, considering last week we were talking

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Speaker 1: about that massive crypto heist at one point four to

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Speaker 1: five billion Yeah, yeah, yeah, US dollars worth, and this

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Speaker 1: idea that it was just kind of just disappeared in

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Speaker 1: the night. Wouldn't have happened if it was in Fort Knox,

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Speaker 1: would it? It wouldn't have Now, what else is going

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Speaker 1: on in international markets?

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Speaker 2: Brent quids training around seventy three US dollars a barrel

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Speaker 2: goals around twenty eight to sixty US do was an

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Speaker 2: ounces dollar, just a bit above sixty two US cents.

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Speaker 1: All right, we've got a lot more still to come, Sean.

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Speaker 1: We are talking about a bit of an update on

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Speaker 1: the troubled Whaleless steel Works, Star Entertainment on the brink,

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Speaker 1: Prita's bid to buy Thesaci. So I mean you're very

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Speaker 1: comfortable talking about luxury fashion.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely, I'd be interested with you're a pritor or asarchi.

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Speaker 1: Man, do we have to pick? Yeah?

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Speaker 2: No, no, no, it's like fortye so little of it, yes, exactly,

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Speaker 2: kind of in a different world. That's like Ford v. Holder.

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Speaker 1: Okay, got it, all right, We'll be back in a

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Speaker 1: moment with the rest of the day's business news, Sean.

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Speaker 1: In politics, the crisis between the US and Ukraine is

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Speaker 1: dominating discussions. Prime Minister Anthony Albernezi says Australian support for

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Speaker 1: Ukraine is quote an issue of doing what's right but

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Speaker 1: also what is in Australia's national interest. Opposition leader Peter

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Speaker 1: Dutton says he was disappointed by the way Ukrainian President

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Speaker 1: Vladimir Zelenski was treated by US President Donald Trump and

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Speaker 1: Vice President jd Events over the weekend.

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Speaker 2: In Dutton's case, it marked the strongest coalition rebuke of

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Speaker 2: the extraordinary competition at the White House. The Opposition leader

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Speaker 2: said it was important that European leaders are arranging a

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Speaker 2: coalition of the willing to support Ukraine. However, he says

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Speaker 2: Australia should not send troops to support that grouping if

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Speaker 2: that's to eventuate.

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Speaker 1: Now I mentioned Whyala earlier Sean. The steel works lost

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Speaker 1: three hundred and nineteen million dollars in just seven months

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Speaker 1: before the South Australian government seized the plant and a

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Speaker 1: nearby mine and called in administrators QUADAMENTA. The restructuring experts

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Speaker 1: now running the mill said the steel works nearby iron

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Speaker 1: or mine in the Middle Back Ranges are losing about

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Speaker 1: one point five million dollars a day in creditors are

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Speaker 1: owed one point three five billion dollars. The steel works

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Speaker 1: is owned by British Industrials San Jeev Gupta, but South

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Speaker 1: Australian Premier Peter Melanouskis expects quod Amantha to run the

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Speaker 1: mill until the middle of twenty twenty six. Is a

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Speaker 1: and one the complex links with Gupta's business. Gupta's GfG

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Speaker 1: Alliance acquired the steel works in twenty seventeen out of

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Speaker 1: the collapse of Ararium, the ASX listed business that was

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Speaker 1: actually once part of BHP. Quadamensa oversaw that administration, which

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Speaker 1: ran for seventeen months, so it is very familiar with

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Speaker 1: the operations. Gupta told the meeting of creditors yesterday that

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Speaker 1: he was owed five hundred and thirty six million dollars.

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Speaker 2: Gef G blamed negative press for making it difficult to

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Speaker 2: refinance the steel mill, and it had been running at

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Speaker 2: about twenty five percent of its usual capacity because of

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Speaker 2: extended problems with the blast furnace over the last year.

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Speaker 2: They couldn't get the money to fix the last furnace

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Speaker 2: and cooked blamed the media.

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Speaker 1: Another day, another Star Entertainment update. But it does feel

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Speaker 1: like we are getting closer to a critical point here

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Speaker 1: with the company remaining on the brink of collapse. It

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Speaker 1: shares are suspended from trading with no last minute rescue

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Speaker 1: package driving.

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Speaker 2: Yet yet we still have to say yet now. In

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Speaker 2: a statement yesterday, the group said there remains a material

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Speaker 2: uncertainty as to the group's ability to continue as a

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Speaker 2: going concern. That does not sound promising. It went on

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Speaker 2: to say the company's unlikely to be in a position

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Speaker 2: to lodge its accounts unless and until it secured a

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Speaker 2: refinancing commitment to refinance all of the group's exist in

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Speaker 2: corporate debt as well as to provide additional liquid e'd

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Speaker 2: it is desperately trying to find someone to fund it.

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Speaker 2: Of course, Star has casinos in Brisbane, the Gold Coast

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Speaker 2: and Sydney. Last week it said it had one week

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Speaker 2: of cash left. Not sure that's up to the new

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Speaker 2: South Wales Premier Chris Min's yesterday reiterated there won't be

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Speaker 2: any more financial assistance for Star from that state. At

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Speaker 2: least it could end up going into administration, It could

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Speaker 2: end up selling parts of the business. It could have

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Speaker 2: some last minute angel coming and helping it out.

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Speaker 1: We will wait and see. I've got an interview coming

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Speaker 1: up though after the show that really gets into this.

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Speaker 1: Really Star is the entry point for this conversation. You're

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Speaker 1: speaking with Damon Callahan from ECP Asset Management.

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Speaker 2: Yes, all about how big companies can fail. So we

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Speaker 2: talk about ASEX two hundred companies and Star being one

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Speaker 2: of those, the fact that it could fall over this week.

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Speaker 2: We've had instances like HIH falling over previously. We then

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Speaker 2: talk about companies like AMP didn't fall over but went

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Speaker 2: from a blue chip to a small cap. Basically great

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Speaker 2: chat about why that happens.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it really is. It's coming up after the show.

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Speaker 1: Bumper sales in its prime subscription business pushed Amazon to

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Speaker 1: record local revenues of seven point seven billion dollars last year,

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Speaker 1: which is up by around twenty percent, really helping cement

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Speaker 1: its dominance of Australia's e commerce sector.

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Speaker 2: In accounts lodged with the Corporate regulator, Amazon said revenues

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Speaker 2: from its e commerce business raise twenty three percent to

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Speaker 2: about three point eight billion dollars last year. Cloud computing

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Speaker 2: was up about eighteen percent. That's Amazon Web Services of course,

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Speaker 2: to about three point nine billion, the biggest business has

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Speaker 2: here in Australia. According to the fin Review, its prime

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Speaker 2: subscription program had revenues of four hundred and eighty million dollars,

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Speaker 2: up about forty percent, according to the accounts. The subscription

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Speaker 2: service gives us as access to services like same day

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Speaker 2: delivery for products purchased through the Amazon Store, and to

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Speaker 2: streaming on its video platforms. The Seattle headquartered technology giant

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Speaker 2: has invested about twenty billion dollars in Australia over the

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Speaker 2: past fourteen years.

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Speaker 1: It is really interesting how much money they are making

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Speaker 1: from that subscription program because it is significantly cheaper than

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Speaker 1: a lot of the other streaming platforms. It's Amazon Prime

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Speaker 1: is seventy nine dollars a year, right, and that includes

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Speaker 1: all of this access to the various delivery kind of free,

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Speaker 1: kind of standard delivery, all this kind of stuff. Disney

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Speaker 1: Plus is one hundred and sixty dollars a year, no

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Speaker 1: delivery bonuses anything like that. Netflix without ads two hundred

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Speaker 1: and twenty seven dollars. It comes down to ninety six

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Speaker 1: if you get some ads in there as well. It

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Speaker 1: is significantly cheaper with all of these kind of delivery

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Speaker 1: things in there.

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Speaker 2: I didn't realize that. So Amazon, that subscription fee per

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Speaker 2: year is cheaper than Fox til per month.

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Speaker 1: Yeah wow, yeah, and look there aren't as many kind

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Speaker 1: of shows and things as say Netflix, but there is

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Speaker 1: still quite a bit and it does get you access

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Speaker 1: to all of the free delivery and a whole lot

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Speaker 1: of other bonus things, and so like no wonder, they

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Speaker 1: are luring a lot of people in.

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Speaker 2: It's like you're talking to your children. We are not

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Speaker 2: going to get Netflix. We're not going to get foxed here.

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Speaker 1: But you do have you can have Amazon Prime. I

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Speaker 1: watch the same show over and over again. It's just

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Speaker 1: like what I did when I was a child, So

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Speaker 1: deal with it.

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Speaker 2: Show.

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Speaker 1: That's international news, shall we. Britain and France are leading

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Speaker 1: a frantic European attempt to salvage peace hopes in Ukraine

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Speaker 1: to a plan to end the war that would include

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Speaker 1: an initial one month truce with Russia covering airc and infrastructure.

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Speaker 2: UK Prime Minister sir Key Starmer said that Europe would

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Speaker 2: step in as intermediaries for Vladimir Zelenski to try to

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Speaker 2: stop the fighting. After the Ukrainian leaders roul with US

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Speaker 2: President Donald Trump in the Oval Office over the weekend.

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Speaker 2: Starmer and French President Emmanuel mccron are promoting a deal

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Speaker 2: which they hope we'll see Trump provide US cover for

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Speaker 2: troops from a European coalition of the willing deployed to

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Speaker 2: secure any cease far in Ukraine. Starma said Europe must

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Speaker 2: do the heavy lifting, but the effort must have strong

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Speaker 2: US backing. A second key part of the European plan

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Speaker 2: would involve Zelenski signing a proposed deal to provide the

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Speaker 2: US with a share of revenues from some of Ukraine's

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Speaker 2: mineral reserves, giving Washington an economic stake in a peace settlement.

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Speaker 1: Finally, let's talk fashion. Sean, we're the two least qualified

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Speaker 1: people in the world to be discussing. Oh sorry, I

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Speaker 1: shouldn't speak for both.

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Speaker 2: We compared to Adam Lang, we are underqualified.

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Speaker 1: That's right.

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Speaker 2: He's a very stylish, stylish fella and his wife, Lara,

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Speaker 2: of course, is a stylist.

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Speaker 1: Yes, so he's got an unfair advantage, doesn't he. That's right? Okay, anyway, Prada,

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Speaker 1: Sean is the.

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Speaker 2: Front trouble at home for saying that Lara's stylist and

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Speaker 2: not suggesting Jackie is because jack is very stylish and

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Speaker 2: Sean is also very stylish infect she is. It's us

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Speaker 2: three boys.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we let the team down. Anyway, good, I think

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Speaker 1: we've successfully got ourselves out of trouble. Prada is the

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Speaker 1: front runner to buy Versaci from Capri Holdings for about

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Speaker 1: one and a half billion euros, in a move that

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Speaker 1: would combine two of Australia's best known luxury fashion brands.

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Speaker 2: Funny thing about that, you just said, two of Australia's

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Speaker 2: best known Australia.

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Speaker 1: Dude, Well, I mean we do love them. We do

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Speaker 1: love them. I mean they obviously belong to Italy. He

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Speaker 1: doesn't try to have this same trying to claim it,

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Speaker 1: trying to boost Australia's fashion industry. Show break.

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Speaker 2: Milan based Prita, Milan being Italy obviously Land based Prita

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Speaker 2: and Capri, which owns brands including Michael Kors and Jimmy Chub,

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Speaker 2: are edging closer to an agreement, and a deal could

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Speaker 2: be concluded within weeks. According to the FT. Capri's initial

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Speaker 2: asking price was about three billion euro. Capri purchased the

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Speaker 2: Italian luxury brand founded by the late Gianni Versaci for

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Speaker 2: about one point eight five billion dollars including debt, in

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Speaker 2: twenty eighteen, but has been looking to sell for some time.

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Speaker 2: The plan accelerated last year when Capri called off a

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Speaker 2: major merger with rival Tapestry. Tapestry coaches their big brand.

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Speaker 2: Prita is Italy's largest luxury fashion group and its financial

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Speaker 2: performance has remained strong despite a selected sector slow down,

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Speaker 2: partly due to its booming Mui Mui brand. Why are

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Speaker 2: you laughing at me?

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Speaker 1: I just love how you just talk about yes, Tapestry,

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Speaker 1: which obviously owns Coach, as though you know this and

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Speaker 1: didn't just research at three minutes before we walked into

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Speaker 1: the Michael.

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Speaker 2: I was fortunate enough in my working life to live

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Speaker 2: in New York. And when you live in New York,

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Speaker 2: you get to read the Wall Street Journal, which we're

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Speaker 2: obsessed with two topics. One was luxury goods and the

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Speaker 2: other was healthcare and the coverage on that. And then

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Speaker 2: you'd go down to Soho and I remember the Prita

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Speaker 2: store at the time in Soho Is on Broadway and

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Speaker 2: there was no name Prat did not appear on the

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Speaker 2: outside of the building. Oh wow, incredibly intimidating to walk into.

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Speaker 2: And you know, I'd walk in with my shorts and

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Speaker 2: T shirt, I'll see myself out and you go down

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Speaker 2: there was never any and I didn't know it was

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Speaker 2: a prior store. It was beautiful until someone explained to

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Speaker 2: me that's actually the Prita store and literally there was

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Speaker 2: no branding on it.

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Speaker 1: Did you buy anything or were you just window shopping?

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Speaker 2: That'scared. I wouldn't even talk to people down there. It's ferocious.

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Speaker 1: Oh that is fantastic.

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Speaker 2: Hm.

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Speaker 1: I sort of snapshot there, Sean. Up next is the

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed Daily Interview with Damon Callahan from ecp

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Speaker 1: Asset Management and is coming up in There and Greed

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Speaker 1: playlist on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com

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Speaker 1: today you and at midday today a bonus episode of

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Speaker 1: Ask Fear and Greed where we answer listener questions. Great

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Speaker 1: question coming up. Thank you very much, Sean.

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Speaker 2: Thanks Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Tuesday, the fourth of March twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us

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Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael

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Speaker 1: Thompson and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day,