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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use

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Speaker 1: today Inflation rises but not enough to take rate cuts

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Speaker 1: off the agenda. Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi gets his meeting

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Speaker 1: with Donald Trump at the end of a raucus un

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Speaker 1: General Assembly and what people really use chat GPT for.

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Speaker 1: Plus the latest trust rankings and Optus appoints an investigator

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Speaker 1: into last week's triple zero failure. It is Thursday, the

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Speaker 1: twenty fifth of September twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson

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Speaker 1: and good morning, Sean Aylmer, Good morning, Michael Suwan. The

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Speaker 1: main story this morning inflation. It jumped in August on

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Speaker 1: the back of the ending of some electricity rebates. And

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Speaker 1: while the uptick is enough to ensure that the Reserve

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Speaker 1: Bank Board will not cut interest rates when it meets

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Speaker 1: next week, the rise isn't enough to stop further reductions

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Speaker 1: in rates later in the year.

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Speaker 2: Well that's a consensus view. Inflation during the year to

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Speaker 2: augustros three percent, slightly above expectations. The all important underlying

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Speaker 2: rate or trimmed mean CPI was up two point six

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Speaker 2: percent in the year to the end of August. That

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Speaker 2: was slightly lower than July. The underlying rate takes out

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Speaker 2: volatile items like electricity. Prices both headline and trimmed mean

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Speaker 2: inflation remain within the Reserve banks two to three percent

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Speaker 2: target band and a will below the peak scene a

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Speaker 2: couple of years ago. I was back in twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 2: In fact, over the last twelve months, the largest growth

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Speaker 2: in prices has been in electricity, so that's as rebates

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Speaker 2: decreased compared to a year ago. In eggs thanks to

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Speaker 2: the bird flu, coffee, teaen cocoa thanks to supply issues,

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Speaker 2: and tobacco and that's thanks to government regulation. Prices have

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Speaker 2: fallen though for smaller household appliances, garments for men, international

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Speaker 2: holiday travel, and.

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Speaker 1: Books specifically garments for men, so yes, not women, is it?

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Speaker 1: So menswear is getting more affordable, but not necessarily clothes

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Speaker 1: clothes for women specifically men, that's.

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Speaker 2: Right, and not just clothes garments for men.

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Speaker 1: Undergarments go on, Michael.

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Speaker 2: While services inflation is higher than goods inflation, seeing that

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Speaker 2: that's been going on for months years. In fact, the

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Speaker 2: most recent spike was from the good side of the economy,

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Speaker 2: so things like eggs, tea, and coffee, tobacco they're all goods.

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Speaker 2: That's what spiked out the past twelve months. Electricity, of course,

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Speaker 2: is a service. Some components of inflation remain sticky, notably rents,

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Speaker 2: new dwelling, construction costs, and parts of fresh food, though

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Speaker 2: rents in particular have certainly come down from where they

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Speaker 2: were according to Amps. Down to a sena, the share

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Speaker 2: of items with annual inflation below two percent is now

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Speaker 2: forty eight percent, while the share of items with inflation

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Speaker 2: above three percent to the top end of the target

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Speaker 2: band that actually fell to thirty six percent.

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Speaker 1: So the bottom line here, then, Sean, is that underlying

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Speaker 1: inflation pressures are easy across a broader range of goods

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Speaker 1: broader range of services. So interest rate cuts are still

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Speaker 1: in the offing.

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Speaker 2: Yes, yesterday's data was monthly, and in four weeks time

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Speaker 2: or so we get the full September quarter, which gives

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Speaker 2: a much broader reading. We know that the Reserve Banker's

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Speaker 2: confident inflation is back in control, and while the board

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Speaker 2: meets next week, no one really thinks there'll be another

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Speaker 2: rate cut, given there was one last month, but that

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Speaker 2: doesn't mean there won't be another rate cut later in

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Speaker 2: the year. Markets have still priced in a strong chance

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Speaker 2: of a rate cut in November. Inflation is definitely in control.

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Speaker 2: We've found that out employment and re market remains pretty strong,

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Speaker 2: though it's off its peak unemployment rate of four point

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Speaker 2: two percent, but we saw jobs losses last month. The economy, though,

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Speaker 2: it's growing, but probably not fast enough. So financial markets

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Speaker 2: are pricing in a rate cut in November, and there

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Speaker 2: could well be more next year.

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Speaker 1: So all in all, this wasn't at that batter result,

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Speaker 1: was it? Because it really depend on kind of and

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Speaker 1: it always amuses me or I find it interesting that

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Speaker 1: you can have a whole bunch of economists looking at

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Speaker 1: the same set of data and interpreting it entirely differently,

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Speaker 1: that some are saying that that there may be no

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Speaker 1: more rate cuts really needed, and some saying, yes, more

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Speaker 1: rate cuts on the way. But really, at its heart,

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Speaker 1: this wasn't a terrible inflation result.

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Speaker 2: No, not at all. I mean it's suddenly for everyone. Michael,

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Speaker 2: you're a bit cynical on the view about economists there,

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Speaker 2: But you know bdsha's David Bassenesi. He's a guy who

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Speaker 2: said they shouldn't cut rates when they didn't cut rates.

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Speaker 2: He put an out out yesterday saying, well, you know,

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Speaker 2: we think that this data suggests that there's not a

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Speaker 2: lot of need to cut rates much more. Diane Messenia

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Speaker 2: I mentioned her AMP they've been on the rate cut

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Speaker 2: bandwagon for a while. They say that the data suggests

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Speaker 2: that there'll be won this year, another couple next year.

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Speaker 2: I mean, it's all in the eye of beholder, and

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Speaker 2: I think yesterday probably the data because it was higher,

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Speaker 2: people could jump on that. But we knew it was

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Speaker 2: going to be high. The Reserve Bank it was going

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Speaker 2: to be higher, and we've got inflation trim men inflation

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Speaker 2: about two and a half percent, two point six percent.

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Speaker 2: So really I think there will be rate cuts. But

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Speaker 2: there was enough in yesterday's data to suit any economists

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Speaker 2: you might want to chat to.

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Speaker 1: Look so overall the result was pretty good, but it

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Speaker 1: was above expectations, and that did appear to spook local

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Speaker 1: markets a little.

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Speaker 2: Yes the S and p ASX two hundred finished down

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Speaker 2: nearly one percent to eighty seven hundred and sixty five points.

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Speaker 2: Wasn't just prospect of fewer rate cuts here, but also

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Speaker 2: fewer rate cuts in the US. That was probably even

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Speaker 2: more powerful on our market yesterday. Yesterday morning, US Federal

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Speaker 2: Reserve chairs your own power failed to green light further

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Speaker 2: rate cuts. He reiterated his cautious view on monetary policy,

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Speaker 2: saying near term risks to inflation were tilted to the upside.

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Speaker 2: That's not words from someone who thinks they're about to

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Speaker 2: cut interest rates. Put that together with the local rate data,

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Speaker 2: the inflation data, and the interstrate sensitive stocks fell yesterday.

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Speaker 2: All the big banks will lower, so to Macquary Group,

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Speaker 2: the property companies dropped, Tech stocks will lower, zip wise,

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Speaker 2: TEG zero, Life three sixty. They all fel The more

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Speaker 2: defensive companies like Telstra, Coles and Woolies outperformed. Interestingly, there

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Speaker 2: are a few defensive stocks like Transurban, the toll road operator.

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Speaker 2: Normally that would do well in a day like yesterday,

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Speaker 2: except it drives much of its income out of the US.

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Speaker 2: So now more rate cuts in the US hit Transurban,

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Speaker 2: so it's underperformed.

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Speaker 1: What about away from equities? Gold is still on the

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Speaker 1: app what's going on with the Aussie dollar?

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Speaker 2: Well, yeah, goals trading arounds three thousand, seven hundred and

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Speaker 2: seventy five US dollars and now it's up nearly fifty

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Speaker 2: percent this year. The Aussie dollar jumped after the inflation data.

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Speaker 2: It's buying sixty six point two US cents. It's up

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Speaker 2: about seven percent against the green back this year. Iron

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Speaker 2: all still trading above one hundred and five US dollars

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Speaker 2: a ton, which is good news for big miners, and

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Speaker 2: Brent's trading at just under US sixty eight dollars a barrel,

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Speaker 2: and that's actually down ten percent this year. Have plenty

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Speaker 2: going on incomod it is as well.

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Speaker 1: Speaking of commodities, great conversation coming up after the show

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Speaker 1: today in Fear and Greed Q and A. You're speaking

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Speaker 1: with Vivekta, who is the head of Commodities and Sustainability

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Speaker 1: Research at Commonwealth Bank, who just knows this stuff so well.

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Speaker 2: Not only does he know it, he can communicate it

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Speaker 2: really well. So we run through what's happening in gold,

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Speaker 2: We mentioned silver, we talk about iron ore, we talk

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Speaker 2: about copper. I think the copper chat was almost the

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Speaker 2: most interesting of the lot. Certainly if you're an investor,

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Speaker 2: you're interested in commodities, this is a do not miss interview.

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Speaker 1: If you want ten minutes that will make you sound

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Speaker 1: smarter at work, this is listen to. Yeah, absolutely, and

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Speaker 1: you can just drop these little facts into conversations at

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Speaker 1: work and everyone will think you are a commodities expert.

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Speaker 1: That's coming up after the show. In the meantime, Sean,

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Speaker 1: we'll take a quick break back in a moment with

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Speaker 1: the rest of the day's business news Sean. As the

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Speaker 1: United Nations General Assembly winds down, Prime Minister Anthony Alberanezi

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Speaker 1: managed a quick chat with the US President Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: and he set up a formal meeting in a month's time.

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Speaker 1: Is now after the UK to meet Prime Minister Kirs

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Speaker 1: Darma and then on to the United Arab Emirates.

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Speaker 2: Yes, a traveling PM. He will return to the US

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Speaker 2: for the seventh time as Prime Minister next month, and

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Speaker 2: his third trip since June, after Trump finally granted him

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Speaker 2: a meeting at the White House. They did run into

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Speaker 2: each other at a reception. They said hello, and not

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Speaker 2: much more than that. Apparently Albanez he said he for

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Speaker 2: to talking to Trump at the White House next month.

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Speaker 2: So that's where that one was up to. It's benefitly

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Speaker 2: wild few days in New York, not least thanks to

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump using the gathering to blast Europe's immigration policies.

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Speaker 2: Blasted Europe about allowing oil to flow to Russia. He

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Speaker 2: called climate change the greatest con job ever perpetrated. He

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Speaker 2: claimed the UN had done nothing to end conflicts, while

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Speaker 2: he himself had put an end to seven wars. During

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Speaker 2: his speech, some delicates actually walked out, particularly as he

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Speaker 2: railed against the globalist concept in mocked green energy. Albinizi

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Speaker 2: and Penny Wong Foreign Mister was on the floor to

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Speaker 2: listen to that speech. Technical mishaps marred the appearance the

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Speaker 2: forty escalator and a broken teleprompter, prompting Trump to accuse

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Speaker 2: the UN of sabotage, believe it or not. And meanwhile,

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Speaker 2: did you see the video of French President Emanuel Macron

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Speaker 2: trying to cross the road to get into the UN.

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Speaker 2: He was stopped by security who said there was a shutdown.

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Speaker 2: He wouldn't be let into the UN building.

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Speaker 1: So what did he do?

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Speaker 2: He ran Donald Trump rang it on the phone and

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Speaker 2: he got him. And the great thing is you can

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Speaker 2: hear the conversation, at least from Mcron's side, and he said,

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Speaker 2: you know, there's a blockade, I can't get across there

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Speaker 2: by the way, can we talk about Gaza.

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Speaker 1: It's fantastic, Yeah, that is great that the escalator and

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Speaker 1: the broken tellyprompter.

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Speaker 2: It was just.

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Speaker 1: It was quite theatrical, actually, wasn't it. And the faulty escalator,

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Speaker 1: and the fact that there had been rumors, there had

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Speaker 1: been reports, and I think this was in the New

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Speaker 1: York Times that people had been overheard joking about cutting

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Speaker 1: power off to the escalators when the president was on it,

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Speaker 1: and then it actually happened. So it's just not a

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Speaker 1: great look anyway. Now Sean Westpac will cut two hundred

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Speaker 1: bank teller jobs across its branch network, replacing them with

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Speaker 1: concierges who will help customers use the bank's app, ATMs

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Speaker 1: or website.

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Speaker 2: It's part of a major restructure at the country's second

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Speaker 2: largest bank, and the plan is to reduce the number

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Speaker 2: of tellers but increase by two hundred the number of

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Speaker 2: home and business lending roles. The idea is that Westpac

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Speaker 2: introduces concierges to all of its branches to help customers

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Speaker 2: who come into the branch bank electronically for services including deposits,

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Speaker 2: paying bills, and switching money between accounts. With all respect

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Speaker 2: to my beautiful ninety three year old mother, Serge is

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Speaker 2: going to be abuts about to teach her how to

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Speaker 2: use electronic banking anyway. The strategy will be backed by

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Speaker 2: two hundred million dollars spend over the next three years

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Speaker 2: into Westpac ATMs and branches Suan.

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Speaker 1: The latest trust rankings show the big banks climbing up

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Speaker 1: the rankings. Maybe those concierges will help. Bunnings is still

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Speaker 1: at number one, and the two supermarket chains well pretty

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Speaker 1: much stuck as the most distrusted brands.

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Speaker 2: All four major banks improved their rankings, led by Comwealth Bank.

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Speaker 2: It jumped five spots. According to Roy Morgan, that's on

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Speaker 2: the back of increasing levels of trust. It's now on

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Speaker 2: the top ten again, ranking at seventh. National Australia Bank

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Speaker 2: had a good quarter with a rising level of trust

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Speaker 2: as well as decreasing levels of distrust. It came at

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Speaker 2: nineteenth West Pax twenty one a D fifty one. Of course,

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Speaker 2: the AINZ doesn't look very good, and subsequent to that

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Speaker 2: ranking it agreed to pay a massive fine over some

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Speaker 2: of its behavior, so perhaps it won't be doing so

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Speaker 2: well for the discount department stores. Big w which is

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Speaker 2: owned by Woollies, was up for the second straight quarter

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Speaker 2: to come in at number six. Target It's thirteen coming

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Speaker 2: in at number one though for the third straight quarter.

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Speaker 2: Bunnings followed by Aldi, Kmart, Apple and Toyota. The supermarket

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Speaker 2: giants Woolies and Coals are again Australia's two most distrusted brands.

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Speaker 2: That's three straight quarters behind them Facebook, Meta, Temu and

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Speaker 2: Tesla Jeepers.

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Speaker 1: That's pretty damning for Tesla to be sitting alongside something

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Speaker 1: like Timu.

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Speaker 2: Right, It's pretty damning for Woollis and Coals to be

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Speaker 2: sitting alongside Facebook and Tu.

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Speaker 1: That's a very good point, Sean Now. Optus has appointed

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Speaker 1: former investment banker and NBN director doctor Kerry Shott to

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Speaker 1: lead an independent review into last week's failure that prevented

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Speaker 1: more than six hundred people from calling Triple zero and

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Speaker 1: was associated with four deaths.

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Speaker 2: OPTAs said the review will identify the causes of the

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Speaker 2: u S incident on September eighteen and examine how triple

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Speaker 2: zero calls are managed on its network. Optis Chairman John

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Speaker 2: Arthur said the board was working with Chief Executive Stephen

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Speaker 2: Rue to understand what went wrong, was committed to sharing

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Speaker 2: the facts and publicly revealed the outcome of shots review,

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Speaker 2: which is expected by the end of the year now.

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Speaker 2: Later yesterday, at a media conference, Ru acknowledged that Optus's

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Speaker 2: reputation had been damaged by the outage. He indicated he

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Speaker 2: had no plans to step down. There has been some

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Speaker 2: confusion of the number of deaths associated with the outage.

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Speaker 2: Who clarified that four people had lost their lives because

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Speaker 2: they could not reach emergency services.

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Speaker 1: All right, turning to international news now sean super typhoon, Regaso,

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Speaker 1: which is one of these strongest in years, has smashed

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Speaker 1: into Hong Kong interrupted the southern Chinese coast early yesterday,

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Speaker 1: leaving deadly destruction in Taiwan and the Philippines. It is

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Speaker 1: really just wreaking havoc throughout the whole region.

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Speaker 2: It is In Taiwan, fourteen people died in a flooded township.

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Speaker 2: Ten deaths were reported in the Philippines. There are many missing. Still.

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Speaker 2: Strong winds blew away parts of a pedestrian bridges, roof

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Speaker 2: and knocked down hundreds of trees. Across Hong Kong. A

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Speaker 2: vessel crashed onto the shore or into the shore, shadowing

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Speaker 2: a row of glass railings along the waterfront areas around

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Speaker 2: Some rivers and promenades were flooded, including cycling lanes and playgrounds.

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Speaker 2: At several promenade restaurants, furniture were scattered chaotically by the winds.

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Speaker 2: More than sixty people were injured and treated at hospitals.

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Speaker 2: Nearly one point nine million people were relocated out across

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Speaker 2: Gwandong Province in southern China. Schools, factories, and transit services

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Speaker 2: were suspended in about a dozen cities. Let's hope everyone

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Speaker 2: is okay.

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Speaker 1: Sean chat GPT, Let's talk about this. More than seventy

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Speaker 1: percent of chat GPT users are asking for help with

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Speaker 1: personal matters and how to get stuff done, rather than

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Speaker 1: using it for work. This is according to our first

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Speaker 1: of its kind study using millions of anonymized messages.

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Speaker 2: So I used chat GPT for work end home? It

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Speaker 2: turns out that non work queer is comprise about seventy

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Speaker 2: three percent of interactions used to be fifty percent a

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Speaker 2: year ago, now seventy three percent mostly about writing personal

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Speaker 2: issues such as fitness and making information requests. The other

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Speaker 2: twenty seven percent were work related, including asking for help,

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Speaker 2: writing decisions, support, information processing, and technical help. How people

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Speaker 2: use chat GPT is the most detailed study released so

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Speaker 2: far about the AIS tools use was written by academics

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Speaker 2: from Harvard and universities. According to the Finn Review, overall,

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Speaker 2: three quarters of conversations with chap BT monitored by the

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Speaker 2: researchers fell into the sort of broad categories of practical guidance,

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Speaker 2: seeking information and writing. Prompts that were classified as personal

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Speaker 2: included these popular ones My wife is mad at me

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Speaker 2: and I don't know what to do well next month?

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Speaker 2: How did black holes work? Well, that's fair enough. Third one,

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Speaker 2: does ICE reduce pimples?

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Speaker 1: God? I love to see that we are using these

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Speaker 1: huge technological advances so responsible.

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Speaker 2: These are all issues that you know, mad spouses and

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Speaker 2: pimples that we haven't got a handle on yet. Query

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Speaker 2: classified as work rate and it include right PowerPoint slides

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Speaker 2: for a tax law conference like that. Rewrite this HR complaint.

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Speaker 2: I'm not so bad for former aggression on Alison on

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Speaker 2: this data. Research has said that workers in highly paid

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Speaker 2: professional occupations were more likely to use chat GPT and

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Speaker 2: concluded they found the tool most useful as an advisor

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Speaker 2: or research assistant.

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Speaker 1: Still stuck at them My wife as mad at me,

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Speaker 1: and I don't know what to do the whole thing

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Speaker 1: with chat GPT is. It's only as good as the

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Speaker 1: information you put into it, So I don't know. I've

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Speaker 1: can't given it enough to work with there all right,

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Speaker 1: it feels like that's a pretty good place to finish

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Speaker 1: things today, Sean. Make sure you stick around for the

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Speaker 1: VECDA coming up in Fear and Greed Q and A

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Speaker 1: next that's and the Fear and Greed playlist, or at

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Speaker 1: Fearangreed dot com dot au, which is also where you

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Speaker 1: sign up for our free daily newsletter. Thanks very much, Sean.

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Speaker 2: Thanks Michael.

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Speaker 1: It's Thursday, the twenty fifth of September twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us

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Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael

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Speaker 1: Thompson and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.