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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.

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Speaker 1: Federal Parliament is back with legislation to reduce HEX debt

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Speaker 1: and safeguard childcare facilities likely to pass with broad support.

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Speaker 1: House prices are rising in all eight capital cities, the

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Speaker 1: first time that's happened since COVID and staying in the

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Speaker 1: property market, new research shows renters are paying around ten

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Speaker 1: thousand dollars per year, more than pre pandemic. Plus NABS

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Speaker 1: boss addresses concerned about his behavior and the US and

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Speaker 1: Japan to a trade deal. It is Thursday, the twenty

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Speaker 1: fourth of July twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson and

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Speaker 1: good morning, Sean Ayle.

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Speaker 2: Good morning to you, Michael Thompson.

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Speaker 1: Sean. A very quick mention. We haven't mentioned this for

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Speaker 1: quite a while our newsletter.

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Speaker 2: Do you know why we haven't mentioned ITAKS have been

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Speaker 2: doing a survey and people say stop mentioning the newsletter

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Speaker 2: at the top of the show. So we haven't been.

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Speaker 2: But I'm sorry today you're going to have to put

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Speaker 2: up with us. That's right, the newsletter. If you don't.

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Speaker 2: If you haven't signed up yet, please do show notes

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Speaker 2: Orfearangreen dot com dot au. It means you get to

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Speaker 2: your desk one step ahead of your client or the

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Speaker 2: person sitting next to you, unless, of course they've signed

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Speaker 2: up for the newsletter. Please go for.

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Speaker 1: It absolutely and it's entirely free and it's very easy

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Speaker 1: to sign up. As you said, I'll put the link

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Speaker 1: in the show notes anyway, Sean, we won't mention it

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Speaker 1: again for at least another week. On with the show.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning the Labor government yesterday introduced

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Speaker 1: bills to cut student debt and put safeguards around funding

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Speaker 1: of childcare facilities, both look like being backed by the Coalition.

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Speaker 1: Then came question time and Susan Lee's first question times

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Speaker 1: as head of the Opposition, and it was dominated by tax.

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Speaker 2: Yes, look, it wasn't exactly a wild and rowdy question time.

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Speaker 2: There was no sort of poor keating moments in it.

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Speaker 2: What we did learn from it though, is that the

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Speaker 2: opposition believe they can make ground on the government around tax.

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Speaker 2: But first of the legislation you mentioned, the first piece

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Speaker 2: of legislation put forward by the government as promised, was

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Speaker 2: cutting student debt for university and take students by twenty percent,

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Speaker 2: wiping off about sixteen billion dollars in people's debt. The

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Speaker 2: average debt today is about seven thousand, six hundred. The

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Speaker 2: legislation will reduce that by about five five hundred. It

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Speaker 2: will also increase the threshold for how much someone will

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Speaker 2: have to earn before they have to start repaying the

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Speaker 2: debt from fifty four thousand to sixty seven thousand. It

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Speaker 2: will also reduce the minimum repayments, so reduce the minimum

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Speaker 2: repayments on student debt. The legislation was introduced by Education

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Speaker 2: minists the Jason Claire, who will also introduce a bill

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Speaker 2: to remove funding from childcare centers that breach safety and

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Speaker 2: quality standards. Claire said the bill will give the Secretary

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Speaker 2: of the Education Department powers to take a provider's quality,

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Speaker 2: safety and compliance history into account when considering whether a

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Speaker 2: provider should be approved to receive the childcare subsidy.

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Speaker 1: Back to the opposition, m Seanden said the coalition will

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Speaker 1: arrive at a position on net zero emissions at the

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Speaker 1: end of a review process that's currently underway, which remains irksome.

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Speaker 1: You got to say to the Nationals.

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Speaker 2: We can talk about an hour on the first proper

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Speaker 2: day of Parliament, because Monday was pomp and ceremony stories

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Speaker 2: in papers yesterday morning, and all of a sudden, Susan

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Speaker 2: Lee's got a barney on her hands.

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Speaker 1: It was always going to happen, wasn't it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, just so quickly. There are reports that some Nationals

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Speaker 2: want to introduce a private members bill that would abandon

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Speaker 2: net zero commitments immediately. National MP Michael McCormack, of course,

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Speaker 2: former leader of the NATS, says the coalition can remain

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Speaker 2: together if the two parties take different positions on zero.

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Speaker 2: Remember when they split after the election, it was on

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Speaker 2: that issue. So I'm not sure they can mean who knows,

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Speaker 2: who knows? It's a unnecessary headache so early the Nationals.

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Speaker 1: It's a complicated party, isn't it, Especially when you've got

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Speaker 1: a few leaders ex leaders within the party itself and

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Speaker 1: so there's no one short of an opinion in that party.

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Speaker 1: And it's a matter of keeping kind of party unity

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Speaker 1: and discipline within the minority party within a coalition, because

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Speaker 1: that can then spread out to the broader coalition and

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Speaker 1: make a massive headache for Susan Lee.

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Speaker 2: Totally, totally. When it came to question time yesterday, the

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Speaker 2: first of the forty eighth Parliament, six of The opposition's

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Speaker 2: last seven questions were about Labour's controversial proposed tax hike

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Speaker 2: on high value superannuation accounts. As we said before, they're

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Speaker 2: fighting on tax Susan Lee actually kicked off question time

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Speaker 2: accusing the ALP of having let down young Australians in housing.

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Speaker 2: So that sounds like another point of contention which the

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Speaker 2: Opposition will be pushing. When it was Labour's turn, there

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Speaker 2: was a lineup of Dorothy Dixon's from first term MPs

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Speaker 2: like Ali France from Dixon Melbourne, Sarah Whitty and Petre's

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Speaker 2: Emma Coma. Anyway, we're often running.

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Speaker 1: We are quite intimidated asking your first question in parliament would.

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Speaker 2: And your first speech and some of that actually must

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Speaker 2: I mean Ali Francis story is quite incredible. Yeah, a

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Speaker 2: woman with a disability who lost a child. That was

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Speaker 2: incredibly emotional. Her first speech which was Monday night, very touching.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Indeed, turning to markets now, Sean, the local share

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Speaker 1: market jumped more than half a percent yesterday, nearing a

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Speaker 1: record finish with the s and PA s X two

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Speaker 1: hundred closing it eight thousand, seven hundred and thirty seven.

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Speaker 2: You are trying to give it some vim and Vigor,

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Speaker 2: but not enough eighty seven hundred and thirty seven plants.

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Speaker 2: I was exciting the market's near a record high.

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Speaker 1: Okay, you did it much better than I was. All

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Speaker 1: I was thinking was it sounds like an aeroplane, A

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Speaker 1: seven three seven an eight seven three seven. There we go.

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Speaker 1: I was kind of just heading off in another direction altogether.

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Speaker 1: I should have given it a bit more.

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Speaker 2: You should have. You should have. Was a better day

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Speaker 2: for the big banks, particularly aan Z, which rose two

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Speaker 2: and a half a cent. Westpac was up nearly one

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Speaker 2: and a half aercent. The big miners again outperformed fortes

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Speaker 2: Kew Metals rose more than two percent to tech stocks

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Speaker 2: were among the laggards, Promedicus, Aria and Zero all falling.

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Speaker 2: Best on the day was white Haven Coal, up six

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Speaker 2: and a half percent after Chinese officials said they're cracking

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Speaker 2: down on coke and coal over production. So less coke

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Speaker 2: and coal production in China should be good for white Haven.

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Speaker 1: Okay, still a bit to cover. Let's take a quick break.

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Speaker 1: We'll be back in a moment with the rest of

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Speaker 1: the day's business news. Sean. In the housing market, prices

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Speaker 1: in all eight capital cities are now rising. Now that's

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Speaker 1: the first time that's happened in four years, and largely

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Speaker 1: you've got to say it's thanks to lower interest rates.

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Speaker 2: I think. So. House prices are now at record highs

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Speaker 2: in Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth. Melbourne and Hobart are

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Speaker 2: at their highest levels in several years. This is according

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Speaker 2: to online property group Domains quarterly report on house prices.

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Speaker 2: In Sydney, the medium price is now one point seven

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Speaker 2: million dollars, in Melbourne's just under one point one million dollars. Interestingly,

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Speaker 2: units are actually outperforming, with the same four cities city Brisbane, Adelaide,

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Speaker 2: Perth recording record high prices, but it's actually Darwin and

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Speaker 2: Canberra leading quarterly growth rates for units. Moral of the

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Speaker 2: story invest wisely. By wisely, you'd come.

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Speaker 1: Up from Look, there's just this moment between us where

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Speaker 1: we both looked at each other and said, who's going

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Speaker 1: to a volunteer position? Position anyway. I mean, that's obviously

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Speaker 1: good news for homeowners, not so great if you're trying

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Speaker 1: to get into market the market. And I suppose that

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Speaker 1: leads us neatly onto the next story, which is about

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Speaker 1: the rental market, because over the past five years the

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Speaker 1: median weekly rent has jumped forty three percent, or two

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Speaker 1: hundred dollars to six hundred and sixty five dollars a week.

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Speaker 1: The good news within this, though, is the growth in

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Speaker 1: rental values are.

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Speaker 2: Slowly, slightly cold comfort, I think, yeah, I think so.

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Speaker 2: If you annulize out the ink, it means people are

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Speaker 2: paying on average about ten thousand dollars a year more

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Speaker 2: than pre COVID for the same rental. Another way of

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Speaker 2: measuring things is how much of a person's income goes

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Speaker 2: to rent payments. In the middle of COVID, it was

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Speaker 2: twenty six percent. Now it's thirty three percent. According to Cotality,

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Speaker 2: Sydney is the most expensive, with a median rental value

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Speaker 2: of just under eight hundred dollars a week, followed by

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Speaker 2: Perth and Brisbane second cheapest. Only head of mobart is Melbourne. Interestingly,

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Speaker 2: as you said that the pace of growth has slowed,

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Speaker 2: which I suppose is of some comfort.

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Speaker 1: Just quickly. This story is interesting. New research suggests that

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Speaker 1: more than fifty percent of Australians rely on the federal

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Speaker 1: and state governments as their main source of income, so

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Speaker 1: not just a source but their primary source.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think this is quite incredible, so government spending

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Speaker 2: during and after COVID rammed up. More recently there's been

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Speaker 2: big outlays in areas like aged care and childcare. But

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Speaker 2: the main reason for the rise in the number of

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Speaker 2: people relying on the government as their main source of

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Speaker 2: income is the ndis. It costs fifty two billion dollars

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Speaker 2: a year and Australia is among the largest disability spenders

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Speaker 2: in the world. The fifty percent figure so it includes

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Speaker 2: welfare payments subsidies as well as public sector wages, so

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Speaker 2: lots of people, of course are employed by the state government's,

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Speaker 2: local governments and federal governments. This all comes from a

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Speaker 2: Center for Independent Studies report. Total federal and state government

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Speaker 2: spending has hit a postwar high of thirty nine percent

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Speaker 2: of GDP, up from about thirty four to thirty five

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Speaker 2: percent before the two thousand and eight global financial crisis.

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Speaker 2: The difference, of course, thirty nine percent fifty percent. They

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Speaker 2: spend more than just on wages and subsidies and yeah,

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Speaker 2: wealthare payments.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, of course. This next story has grabbed its probably

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Speaker 1: more than its fair share of headlines over the last

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Speaker 1: few days. Shaw National Australia Bank CEO Andrew Irvine has

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Speaker 1: spoken for the first time about reports that investors were

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Speaker 1: concerned about his socializing, which drew scrutiny from the board.

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Speaker 2: Yes, originally the reports were drinking. Now it's become socializing,

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Speaker 2: but it probably means the same thing. Irvine, appearing at

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Speaker 2: an Australian Bankers Association lunch, said it's been a difficult

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Speaker 2: week and hard on me and my family. He said

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Speaker 2: he didn't speak to the board about the reports last

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Speaker 2: week because he was on holidays in Canada. He apparently was.

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Speaker 2: The board did meet, but he hasn't spoken to them

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Speaker 2: about it. So He also added that it's a privilege

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Speaker 2: to be CEO of the bank. He went on to

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Speaker 2: say that housing and productivity are at the core of

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Speaker 2: Australia's challenges and the banking sector needs a champion reducing

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Speaker 2: red tape and pushing for solutions. He said housing is

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Speaker 2: the number one issue for Australia, adding that it's also

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Speaker 2: too hard to start a business in this country.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I noted that that informal board meeting call to

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Speaker 1: discuss that it was three am in Toronto, so it

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Speaker 1: was going to be a tough one for him to join.

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Speaker 1: Now Australia is one of only a handful of OECD

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Speaker 1: countries where there is more money being held in savings

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Speaker 1: accounts than in capital market investments.

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Speaker 2: So that's according to a new report from global fund

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Speaker 2: manager Vanguard, it's significant for a couple of reasons. So

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Speaker 2: you put your money into a term deposit rather than

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Speaker 2: investing it in equities or a managed fund, what it

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Speaker 2: could mean lower returns, people could be missing out. The

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Speaker 2: flip side is that it means there's plenty of money

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Speaker 2: going into savings accounts that's not going into Australian businesses,

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Speaker 2: for example. So the couple of reasons why this may

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Speaker 2: not be a good thing. Most other economies, it's not

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Speaker 2: like that. The US is a prime example. A place

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Speaker 2: like Canada, Italy, Mexico, Spain and the Netherlands. They put

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Speaker 2: their money when we would term it like they invest

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Speaker 2: as opposed to save. They're actually misnown as those names,

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Speaker 2: but generally we would say they invest their money rather

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Speaker 2: than put it in a bank account. Vanguard says the

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Speaker 2: change the behavior, new motivations are needed, like tax and

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Speaker 2: centers outside super more affordable financial advice that one before,

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Speaker 2: and improving financial literacy.

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Speaker 1: Levels Okay, let's turn to international news. Now, Sean and

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Speaker 1: the US and Japan, this is a big one, have

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Speaker 1: done a trade deal, which President Donald Trump says will

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Speaker 1: result in Japan investing five hundred and fifty billion US

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Speaker 1: dollars into the world's biggest economy in return for a

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Speaker 1: reduced fifteen percent tariff.

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Speaker 2: So Japan originally was given a twenty five percent tariff,

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Speaker 2: so there's the reduction. The deal was announced by Trump

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Speaker 2: on truth Social Though details are somewhat limited, it did

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Speaker 2: send the Japanese share market high yesterday, especially the automakers

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Speaker 2: Toyota Masda. The US is by far their biggest market.

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Speaker 2: Japan is the world's fourth largest economy. It is the

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Speaker 2: sixth trade deal the US has done, alongside agreements with

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Speaker 2: Britain via Vietnam, Indonesia, China, the Philippines which they announced yesterday. Again,

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Speaker 2: details are fairly scanned. Few major trading deals still to

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Speaker 2: be negotiated, so talks are ongoing with the EU that's

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Speaker 2: definitely a tricky one. Canada and Mexica to be his

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Speaker 2: trading partners, so they're still to be done.

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Speaker 1: And how are we going talking to the president?

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Speaker 2: He's not taking the call yet still.

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Speaker 1: Not yet, Not yet General Motors. This is still another

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Speaker 1: tariff related story here. General Motors profit in the second

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Speaker 1: quarter fell by more than a third after President Trump's

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Speaker 1: tariffs cost the company more than a billion dollars.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's fascinating. It's the second auto made a cab

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Speaker 2: this week to show the toll that the Trump Administration's

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Speaker 2: trade policies are taking on the industry. The other groups

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Speaker 2: to Atlantis, which makes Chrysler Jeepsreen vehicles, they said they'd

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Speaker 2: lost two point three billion euros in the first half

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Speaker 2: of the year, partly because of tariff's. Automakers are an

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Speaker 2: important pillar of the US economy right and the industry

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Speaker 2: employs about one million manufacturing workers. According to report in

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Speaker 2: New York Times. Cutting profits makes it much harder for

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Speaker 2: them to invest in new technologies to withstand growing competition

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Speaker 2: from Chinese automakers. The real downside in real terms and

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Speaker 2: terms employment technology, that type of thing for the sector.

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Speaker 2: General Matters profit for the quarters one point nine billion

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Speaker 2: US dollars. It manufactures cars in Canada, Mexico, and South Korea.

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Speaker 2: They're exported to the United States. They've been subject to

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Speaker 2: twenty five percent tariffs and the company rexisens tariffs will

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Speaker 2: cost it five billion dollars for the full year.

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Speaker 1: Wow, Okay up Next, Sean is the Fear and Greed

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Speaker 1: Daily Interview. You're speaking today with the chief executive of FONTO,

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Speaker 1: Ben Dixon. So.

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Speaker 2: FONTE is an organization that has ninety thousand people that

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Speaker 2: have agreed to provide real time data on what they

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Speaker 2: spend on. And so we talk about what's happening in

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Speaker 2: a bunch of different sectors. So what's happening in liquor

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Speaker 2: and real changes in liquor, what's happening in pharmaceutic calls,

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Speaker 2: in beauty products, in hardware. It's a great chat because

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Speaker 2: what FONTO does is have information pretty much in real

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Speaker 2: time about consumer trends. Now, companies pay FONTO for that

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Speaker 2: information and then they change or don't their offerings to consumers.

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Speaker 2: So it's a great chat about all that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, indeed, and I love how specific it gets talking

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Speaker 1: about kind of what's happening with colds and liquorland and

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Speaker 1: Bunnings and chemist warehouse and things. It is a really

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Speaker 1: good conversation for anyone in that space, but just anyone

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Speaker 1: just broadly, you know.

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Speaker 2: Broadly, No if you're in there.

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Speaker 1: If you are a person, you will enjoy this. That

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Speaker 1: is quite broad. That's coming up next in the Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed

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Speaker 1: dot com today you which is where you sign up

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Speaker 1: for that free daily newsletter. Thank you, sure, thank you, Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Thursday of the twenty fourth of July twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty five. Make sure you're following the podcast and please

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Speaker 1: join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael Thompson and that was Fear and Greed and

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Speaker 1: have a great day.