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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed Q and A, where we

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Speaker 1: ask an answer questions about business, investing, economics, politics and more.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael Thompson and Black Friday and Cyber Monday have

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Speaker 1: very much muscled their way into the Australian retail calendar,

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Speaker 1: becoming what is now the biggest retail event of the year,

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Speaker 1: and in doing so, it's really shifted the focus from

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Speaker 1: a month long retail build up to Christmas to a

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Speaker 1: really intense week or so where there's an enormous amount

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Speaker 1: of pressure on businesses and staff to deliver a seamless,

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Speaker 1: very efficient shopping experience for customers. And for so many businesses,

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Speaker 1: both big and small, the online component of what they

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Speaker 1: offer has become critical. My guest today is Carl Durrance,

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Speaker 1: who is the managing director Australia and New Zealand, a

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Speaker 1: payments platform Stripe, which is a supporter of this podcast. Carl,

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Speaker 1: Welcome back to Fear and Greed Q and A.

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Speaker 2: It's great to be here. Thanks for having me again.

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Speaker 1: How did we get here right? Because Black Friday Cyber

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Speaker 1: Monday have not always been on the retail calendar, yet

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Speaker 1: it managed to get so big so quickly. To the

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Speaker 1: point that it's actually shifted the focus for retailers.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I think it's a relatively new thing

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Speaker 3: in this market here in Australia. It's gone back many

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Speaker 3: many years. In the US, Black Friday started in the

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Speaker 3: sixties and is aligned to the Thanksgiving holiday, and classically

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Speaker 3: what would happen is people would have Thanksgiving off, they

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Speaker 3: do a bunch of shopping the day after. Cyber Monday

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Speaker 3: was introduced in the US about twenty years ago in

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Speaker 3: order to incent a degree of online shopping.

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Speaker 2: But you're right.

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Speaker 3: With respect to Australia and New Zealand, I'd say it's

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Speaker 3: probably only really picked up in the last maybe five

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Speaker 3: plus years. And I mean it's huge, the transaction volumes

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Speaker 3: that we're seeing, the amount that Australian retailers are driving.

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Speaker 3: It's pretty phenomenal.

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Speaker 1: Internationally because Strip is obviously a big global player. How

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Speaker 1: big was Black Friday? Cyber Monday? And do I have

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Speaker 1: to call it b FCM?

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Speaker 2: Is it?

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Speaker 1: I've got a bit of an allergy to acronyms.

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Speaker 2: No, No, we don't have to call it that today.

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Speaker 3: So it's still going right now, So there's still a

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Speaker 3: few more hours to go. In the US, but right

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Speaker 3: now we've just crossed thirty five billion dollars of transaction

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Speaker 3: volume on the Stripe Network across the sales season. I

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Speaker 3: think what's interesting though, is when you measure Black Friday

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Speaker 3: Cyber Monday classically in the US, it really is concentrated

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Speaker 3: into those two days. It elongates a little, but here

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Speaker 3: because we don't have the Thanksgiving holiday, it's become almost

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Speaker 3: a month long sales season. But what that means is

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Speaker 3: there's a huge amount of concentration of growth in that period.

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Speaker 3: So we see some retailers in this part of the

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Speaker 3: world doing twenty to thirty percent of their annual transaction

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Speaker 3: volume just in Black Friday Cyber Monday. So it's an

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Speaker 3: incredible moment in time for retailers to drive growth.

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Speaker 1: That is extraordinary. And you have so much data as well,

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Speaker 1: which I have been pouring over that over the last

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Speaker 1: few days, just watching the transaction value, ticking over anything

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Speaker 1: that you've seen that affects the local markets.

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Speaker 3: Yes, so interestingly, when it comes to the currencies being

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Speaker 3: transacted on the Stripe Network during this sale season, we've

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Speaker 3: seen the Australian dollar be the fourth biggest currency globally,

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Speaker 3: so only behind the US dollar, the British pound, the

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Speaker 3: euro and then Australia as being fourth, and that's a

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Speaker 3: relative proxy for the amount that consumers in this market

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Speaker 3: are leaning into. We also have seen that Sydney is

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Speaker 3: the ninth biggest city in the world in participation in

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Speaker 3: Black Friday Soyber Monday sales on the Stripe network. So

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Speaker 3: again you would suggest that Australians are really leaning in

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Speaker 3: to getting a great deal during this season.

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Speaker 1: Okay, in terms of it's probably worth adding a little

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Speaker 1: bit of context in terms of what Stripe is doing here,

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Speaker 1: the fact that you are partnering with everyone from kind

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Speaker 1: of Amazon through to small businesses. Right, it is really

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Speaker 1: both ends of the spectrum and everything in between.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean classically in these kind of use cases,

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Speaker 3: it's the acceptance of payments online. And because such a

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Speaker 3: large proportion of annual traffic gets concentrated into this season,

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Speaker 3: you know, businesses are choosing Stripe because we just have

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Speaker 3: such high levels of availability in performance. So during Black

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Speaker 3: Friday Cyber Monday, we're very proud to be delivering over

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Speaker 3: six nines of availability, So that's ninety nine point nine

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Speaker 3: nine nine percent availability. So if you kind of work

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Speaker 3: that out, well, how available is that over an entire

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Speaker 3: month that would be degraded performance of two point six

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Speaker 3: seconds or less than one hundred milliseconds a day of

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Speaker 3: degraded performance. So it means that retailers can trust that

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Speaker 3: they can they can get the transactions when they need them.

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Speaker 1: Okay, how important is that for a retailer? But then

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Speaker 1: for the impact that it has on a consumer, because

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Speaker 1: I was curious about just how much pressure something like

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Speaker 1: Black Friday Cyber Monday puts on transactions and puts on

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Speaker 1: the infrastructure behind it where all of us and you

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Speaker 1: have got so many people rushing out there to do

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Speaker 1: their Christmas shopping early, and they are all expecting everything

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Speaker 1: to be processed instantly and smoothly, and in some cases,

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Speaker 1: speaking from experience, if something goes wrong, you just walk away.

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Speaker 1: And so it puts pressure on the retailer to nail

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Speaker 1: it and in doing so puts pressure on their partners

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Speaker 1: like Stripe totally.

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Speaker 3: I mean, the attention span during these periods is very small.

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Speaker 2: Speaking more the best of times. Yeah, it's smaller the

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Speaker 2: best of times.

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Speaker 3: But I think the way that we think about it

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Speaker 3: is actually the pressure is more on our customers on

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Speaker 3: the retailers to be available to make sure they capture

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Speaker 3: the market opportunity when it's there, and it's our responsibility

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Speaker 3: to make sure that we're able to meet that expectation.

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Speaker 3: So you're right, though, it is the hugest sales season

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Speaker 3: of the year classically. In the past, we would probably

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Speaker 3: expect that to be the post Christmas sales, but the

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Speaker 3: data shows us that the majority of sales now are

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Speaker 3: happening in November, where people are looking for great deals

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Speaker 3: for the Christmas giving season is still big, but not

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Speaker 3: as big as Black Friday, Summer Monday.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's extraordinary. I want to park that just for

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Speaker 1: a moment and go to the future of shopping because

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed partnered with Stripe on the Stripe Tour

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Speaker 1: earlier this year, and so I was sitting in the

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Speaker 1: crowd watching this presentation about agentic AI and the future

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Speaker 1: of shopping and it's it's one of those things it's

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Speaker 1: almost hard to explain if you don't see it, but

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Speaker 1: the way that transactions were being processed essentially by AI

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Speaker 1: representing the shopper, this isn't representing the retailer and doing

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Speaker 1: it at the retailer's end, but actually doing the shopping

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Speaker 1: for you and comparing prices and doing all of that.

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Speaker 1: Where are we heading.

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Speaker 3: We're heading to a world where agents actually start acting

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Speaker 3: on behalf of consumers and it becomes you know, a

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Speaker 3: decent portion of transaction volume that retailers are dealing with

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Speaker 3: and consumers are authorizing. Right, So it's still early, and

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Speaker 3: we've got a global partnership with open around the Augentic

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Speaker 3: Commerce Protocol allowing basically consumers who are operating inside chat

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Speaker 3: GPT to start transacting and buying goods and services in

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Speaker 3: there autonomously. So as opposed to the classic use case

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Speaker 3: where you may ask CHATGBT to do some research, which

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Speaker 3: is excellent, what it can start doing is actually conducting

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Speaker 3: the purchase for you as well as part of that engagement.

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Speaker 3: Instead of you then having to hop out of CHATBT

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Speaker 3: into a browser, find the product and conduct the purchase,

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Speaker 3: actually it'll do it for you.

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Speaker 1: So say you were shopping and now I'm just really

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Speaker 1: curious as to how it actually plays out. If I

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Speaker 1: was to be looking for something, researching a particular product,

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Speaker 1: whereas in the past I'd go to CHATBT, I would

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Speaker 1: say look around, tell me in Sydney or in Melbourne,

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Speaker 1: where I can find the best deal on this. I

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Speaker 1: can now actually just go essentially tell it to find

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Speaker 1: the best deal and to complete the purchase and go

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Speaker 1: through it knowing that I'm looking for kind of good reviews,

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Speaker 1: best quality. I don't want to pay shipping, and it

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Speaker 1: can actually work its way through.

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Speaker 3: That process, yeah, and conduct a purchase for you with

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Speaker 3: a payment credential that you've enabled it with YEP, and

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Speaker 3: then complete the last mile fulfillment as well to make

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Speaker 3: sure that the product gets posted to you. We've got

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Speaker 3: early use cases now in the US with ets and

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Speaker 3: so it's a marketplace and so essentially in chat Chept

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Speaker 3: it will do the search. But in the fullness of time,

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Speaker 3: we're expecting many many businesses to be surfaced here where

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Speaker 3: you can start doing searches for experiences or products and

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Speaker 3: then have chat Chept complete that purchase on your behalf.

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Speaker 1: It pretty much changes the way we shop, and I'm

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Speaker 1: not unhappy about that because I find I find the

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Speaker 1: Black Friday shopping experience to be really, really stressful, where

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Speaker 1: you are trying to find a deal and the best deal,

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Speaker 1: and I find it overwhelming when everyone is offering a

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Speaker 1: deal and you're trying to calculate what is actually going

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Speaker 1: to be the best and I would just love to

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Speaker 1: be able to step back.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, imagine delegating that to an agent and saying, actually,

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Speaker 3: this is a lego set, and this is the budget,

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Speaker 3: and this is the time frame around how long it

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Speaker 3: may take to ship and go and find that deal

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Speaker 3: for me, along to those parameters. And then also imagine

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Speaker 3: a future agent that does grocery reloads for you, and

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Speaker 3: it knows how often you're buying these things, and it

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Speaker 3: just takes all that buying away so that you can

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Speaker 3: focus on things that you really want to invest in

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Speaker 3: where you get a joy of buying, but maybe the

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Speaker 3: administrative buying you can delegate to an agent. And so

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Speaker 3: there's this future where there's actually more transactions that are happening,

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Speaker 3: where you can focus on the ones that you want

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Speaker 3: to focus on and you can delegate the rest.

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Speaker 1: So when we talk about AI improving productivity, right, this

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Speaker 1: is a great example of speeding up a whole lot

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Speaker 1: of individual transactions and the research that goes into it

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Speaker 1: and making it a more smooth, seamless experience. What does

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Speaker 1: it mean for retailers then, are they going to benefit,

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Speaker 1: mostly because it will increase the speed at which that

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Speaker 1: has done and reduce the potential friction between customers and retailers.

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Speaker 3: I think there's a few things. Firstly, based on what

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Speaker 3: we're seeing in the early data, this is going to

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Speaker 3: be a net new channel of growth. It's early, but

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Speaker 3: the expectation is that it is probably not going to

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Speaker 3: replace human buying, and so there's an opportunity for a

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Speaker 3: new growth vector, which I think is interesting. I think

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Speaker 3: the way that generally online retailers dealt with bots and

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Speaker 3: the fact that non human interactions with a website does

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Speaker 3: need to change because historically that's been associated with some

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Speaker 3: sort of spam or threat, and so that needs to evolve.

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Speaker 2: But there's a future where.

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Speaker 3: A percentage of the transactions are going to be agent based,

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Speaker 3: a percentage is going to be human based, and how

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Speaker 3: do you engage both of those channels as a channel

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Speaker 3: for growth. So there's a huge amount of I guess

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Speaker 3: innovation that's going to happen over the next twelve to

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Speaker 3: eighteen months in enabling this.

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Speaker 2: But it's a super exciting time.

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Speaker 1: Timeline twelve to way ten months. So what in the

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Speaker 1: next maybe two or three years, we could see it

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Speaker 1: really affecting the way that say you or I shop.

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Speaker 3: I think it's going to be earlier than that. I

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Speaker 3: think what we're going to see is Australian merchants be

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Speaker 3: listening on these platforms as early as next year.

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Speaker 2: Okay.

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Speaker 3: I think the more merchants that get listened on these

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Speaker 3: platforms create some surface area where suddenly it becomes a

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Speaker 3: place where you expect to be able to shop. And

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Speaker 3: then we're going to start seeing a decent percentage of volume.

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Speaker 3: And I'm really looking forward to next year or even

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Speaker 3: the year later around Black Friday Sober Monday, of what

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Speaker 3: percentage of those transactions have been driven by agents versus humans,

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Speaker 3: because I think it's going to be meaningful.

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Speaker 1: Bringing it back to Black Friday. We are out of time,

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Speaker 1: but bringing it back to Black Friday and online sales.

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Speaker 1: Is everyone doing it now in terms of retailers or

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Speaker 1: is there are there still pockets that are potentially holding

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Speaker 1: out and not getting involved in this and then maybe

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Speaker 1: setting themselves up to miss out on the next wave

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Speaker 1: being AGENTICAI and those changes to shopping.

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Speaker 3: I think the majority of retailers are leaning in and

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Speaker 3: we're seeing it though it extend. So now we're seeing

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Speaker 3: the emergence of travel Tuesday, and so business is saying, well,

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Speaker 3: hang on a second, maybe I'm getting lost a little

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Speaker 3: in the classic retail season and let's create something new.

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Speaker 3: In the US, they've got Giving Tuesday, which is classically

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Speaker 3: more aligned to donating to charity, and so we're seeing

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Speaker 3: it extend getting bigger versus getting smaller. So generally speaking, retail,

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Speaker 3: we're seeing them lean in because it's just so important.

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Speaker 3: But then some of these other sectors are starting to

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Speaker 3: create individual areas to make sure that they're able to surface.

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Speaker 1: Awesome, Kyl, thank you for talking to Fear and Greed.

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Speaker 2: Wonderful, Thanks for having me.

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Speaker 1: That was Kyle Durrance, Managing Director Australia and New Zealand,

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Speaker 1: a payments platform Stripe, which is a great supporter of

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Speaker 1: this podcast. If you've got something that you'd like to know,

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Speaker 1: then send through your question on LinkedIn, Instagram, Facebook or

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Speaker 1: at Fearandgreed dot com dot au. I'm Michael Thompson and

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Speaker 1: this is Fear and Greed Q and A