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Speaker 1: Today on fear and greed. Global equity markets sell off

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Speaker 1: on fears of a recession in the United States, consumer

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Speaker 1: sentiment in Australia finally picks up, hitting a three year high,

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Speaker 1: and the value of losses from scams tumbles. Plus Disney

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Speaker 1: Plus looks at pushing into sport in Australia. And Elon

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Speaker 1: Musk's bad week out of the office. Welcome to Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed. Daily business news for people who make their

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Speaker 1: own decisions. It is Wednesday, the twelfth of March twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael, Sean.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning global share markets are falling

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Speaker 1: as fears of a recession in the US and general

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Speaker 1: nervousness really around global trade wars overwhelm investors. Confidence textocs

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Speaker 1: are among the hardest that.

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Speaker 2: Have been hit, Michael. Yesterday there was the proverbial it's

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Speaker 2: coming red. It's a sever read across the AA six.

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Speaker 2: At one point yesterday all eleven subin this sees were lower.

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Speaker 2: In fact, seventy five percent of stocks yesterday of the

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Speaker 2: top two hundred fell. The market head a seven month

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Speaker 2: low to finish down nearly one percent to seven eight

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Speaker 2: hundred and ninety points. It could have been much worse,

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Speaker 2: with the index almost as low as seventy eight hundred points,

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Speaker 2: down about two percent around lunchtime, as it was, around

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Speaker 2: nineteen billion dollars was wiped off. The value of the

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Speaker 2: boss US focused companies got hit hardest CSL and were

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Speaker 2: Querry Group Brambles, But really it was the tech stocks

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Speaker 2: that got absolutely hammered. Promedicus closed down more than ten percent, zero,

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Speaker 2: Computer Share Technology one all ended sharply lower.

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Speaker 1: It was not a good day on the market, No,

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Speaker 1: certainly wasn't and that selloff followed out Really a wipeout,

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Speaker 1: wasn't it on Wall Street? Where trillions of dollars of

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Speaker 1: value was lost on Monday night?

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Speaker 2: So the tech having Nasdaq ended down five percent, that

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Speaker 2: is a huge amount of value to lose. In fact,

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Speaker 2: there's one point one trillion US dollars in one session.

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Speaker 2: Worst on the day Tesler down fifteen percent. Will talk

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Speaker 2: about that a bit later on. The main reason for

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Speaker 2: the Wall Streets sell off and the ASEX sell off

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Speaker 2: were comments by Donald Trump that the US may feel

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Speaker 2: a little disturbance stemming from trade wars with Canada, Mexico

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Speaker 2: and China.

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Speaker 1: Sounds like something out of Star Wars, doesn't it? A

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Speaker 1: disturbance in the force.

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Speaker 2: A little disturbance. Well, the way, I think that, it's

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Speaker 2: kind of like the King with No Clothes. When Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump says something, you never know whether he's overstating or

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Speaker 2: understating again.

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Speaker 1: Or actually, yeah, saying it accurately straight down the middle.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Anyway, I triggered His comments triggered fears of a

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Speaker 2: recession in the US. That meant that riskier assets were

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Speaker 2: sold off big time. Bitcoin and other cryptos was sold.

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Speaker 2: The benchmark digital unit Bitcoin traded below seventy eight thousand

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Speaker 2: US dollars unit. That's down about twenty five percent since

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Speaker 2: the middle of January. Oil's lower Brent's pushing blows seventy

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Speaker 2: US dollars a barrel oils. I mean, it's just not

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Speaker 2: just important that the petrol boughs are. We like it

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Speaker 2: when oil prices four really significant for the global economy

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Speaker 2: because oil is a primary source of energy for transportation.

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Speaker 2: So thinks trucks and planes and buses and cars and

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Speaker 2: stuff like that used for heating, it's used for medicines

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Speaker 2: and plastics, and all sorts of things. So when the

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Speaker 2: price of oil falls, you actually get a bit of

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Speaker 2: a stimulus to the global economy because the input costs

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Speaker 2: for So that's why we talk about oil so much.

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Speaker 2: Recession talk really isn't good for any risky assets. The

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Speaker 2: Australian dollars a risky asset in the eyes of the world,

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Speaker 2: even though the US dollar is where the recession is

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Speaker 2: going to happen under sixty three US sense. Again, we

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Speaker 2: are having a tough time. Certainly if you're traveling overseas,

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Speaker 2: you're having a rough time because the Asie dollar is

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Speaker 2: worth not much all in all. What a crazy twenty

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Speaker 2: four to thirty six hours on markets.

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Speaker 1: You're absolutely right, But in the midst of all of

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Speaker 1: that volatility. Sean your interview guest today, Tim Hext from Pendle,

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Speaker 1: a voice of calm, a voice of reason.

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Speaker 2: The uncertainty of voice of sensibility or something. Indeed, yep,

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Speaker 2: Tim is great. He talks to us about why we

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Speaker 2: shouldn't panic or even be too worried about what's happened.

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Speaker 2: Sort of. I put it to him that it's maybe

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Speaker 2: the correction we had to have, and he laughed at it.

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Speaker 2: So I don't know quite the he'd agreed with it

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Speaker 2: or not, but his point being, look, there is a

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Speaker 2: sell off, but it had run hard, so let's not

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Speaker 2: panic about it. And he just talks about some of

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump's policies and kind of taking certainly a medium

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Speaker 2: to long term view on what's going on.

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Speaker 1: It's probably the most level headed discussion of this because

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Speaker 1: there is there is so much noise around all of this,

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Speaker 1: and in every newspaper that you read, everywhere you look,

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Speaker 1: there is so much kind of hype and excitement and

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Speaker 1: fear around a lot of what is going on, and

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Speaker 1: this kind of balances that out a bit.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, even the market yesterday it was down almost two

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Speaker 2: percent within half an hour or so, now it came

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Speaker 2: back to finish one percent. Love, So it's a very

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Speaker 2: bad day in the market. But people are scared and

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Speaker 2: they're just selling, not quite willy nilly, but they're selling

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Speaker 2: fearing things that potentially might not happen.

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Speaker 1: Now, Shawn, a bit of good news. Yes, consumer sentiment

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Speaker 1: has hit a three year high on the back of

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Speaker 1: the recent interest rate cut, but unsettled global markets exactly

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Speaker 1: what we've been talking about in this fear, right, that's

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Speaker 1: weighing on confidence in the economy.

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Speaker 2: So the good news is that west pax Melbourne Institute

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Speaker 2: Consumer Sentiment Index post at a four percent jump in March.

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Speaker 2: That's to ninety five point nine points. That's not far

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Speaker 2: up one hundred. Now one hundred is a position where

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Speaker 2: the as many optimists as pessimists. But as we've discussed here,

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Speaker 2: we're a miserable bunch were consumers, so we're always under

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Speaker 2: that one hundred. So ninety five point nine is actually

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Speaker 2: a pretty good result. It's actually back to levels of

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Speaker 2: pre May twenty twenty two. That dates significant because that's

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Speaker 2: when the reserve banks started lifting interest rates, so things

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Speaker 2: amongst consumers at least sentiment amongst consumers is certainly improving.

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Speaker 2: Westpac said. Slowing inflation and the Reserve Bank of Australia's

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Speaker 2: first rate cut in four years last month meant cost

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Speaker 2: of living pressures were easing. That provides a clear lift.

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Speaker 2: And of course if consumers are happier, they spend more.

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Speaker 2: You know, I'm going to ask you something that you

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Speaker 2: may not be able to answer here. Yes, So ninety

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Speaker 2: five point nine is good. What's the worst you've ever seen?

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Speaker 2: It was it during the pandemic. Was it the GFC,

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Speaker 2: these big global events that are really it was a pandemic.

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Speaker 2: I don't have it in front of me, but I

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Speaker 2: think it was a pandemic because we talk about as

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Speaker 2: low the index in about two months ago was as

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Speaker 2: low as it was since the pandemic. No, I don't

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Speaker 2: know whether it was worse during the GFC or not.

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Speaker 2: I will be ferociously googling that, looking it up as

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Speaker 2: we go on with the show.

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Speaker 1: And you'll bring us the answer shortly before we go

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Speaker 1: to a break through, which is a perfect time for

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Speaker 1: some googling. Business confidence isn't quite so good according to

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Speaker 1: the National Australian Bank Measure.

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Speaker 2: Now in some ways it's flipped, so business confidence turned

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Speaker 2: negative in feedbs it's now worse than neutral. Think about

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Speaker 2: the NAB Business Survey. People like that one, particularly around

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Speaker 2: what it says on prices, and there's good news on

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Speaker 2: that front. Of the least, so final product prices a

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Speaker 2: rising by just half the cent per quarter. So if

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Speaker 2: you put labor costs in that as well as input costs,

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Speaker 2: you're coming up with these final product prices, and particularly

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Speaker 2: on the labour side, we're just not seeing the price

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Speaker 2: pressures that we saw previously. That all goes really well

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Speaker 2: for future INFACI readings in fation comes down, we'll end

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Speaker 2: up getting interest rate cuts.

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Speaker 1: All right, we have got a lot still to cover.

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Speaker 1: We're talking about scam losses. Some good news on that front,

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Speaker 1: Shawn Disney getting into sport, Elon Musk's businesses under pressure.

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Speaker 1: Plenty still to come. We'll be back in a moment

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Speaker 1: with the rest of the day's business news. Sean, have

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Speaker 1: you been able to find me an answer when consumer

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Speaker 1: sentiment was at its worst?

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Speaker 2: Yes, I do so consume sentiment. So we talked about

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Speaker 2: the ninety five point nine points in COVID. It fell

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Speaker 2: kind of about seventy five seventy six points.

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Speaker 1: Oh wow.

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Speaker 2: Though last year it actually got down to under eighty points,

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Speaker 2: so it actually fell quite a bit last year as well.

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Speaker 2: But you were right, so the worst period was COVID.

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Speaker 1: Okay, all right, Sean. I mentioned a bit of good

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Speaker 1: news about scam losses, and I suppose it's good depending

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Speaker 1: on which we were having a debate about this in

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Speaker 1: the office, weren't we whether this is actually good news

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Speaker 1: or not. The value of scam losses in Australia fell

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Speaker 1: by twenty six percent to two billion dollars last year.

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Speaker 1: It is it is way too high, but it does

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Speaker 1: seem like things are getting better, right.

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Speaker 2: Yes, So this report combines information from a bunch of watchdogs.

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Speaker 2: It shows that the value of losses has fallen. So

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Speaker 2: to the number of reported scams, they've dropped eighteen percent

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Speaker 2: to under five hundred thousand. Now that's still five hundred

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Speaker 2: thousand in a year. That's a lot of scams every day.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, there's plenty going on unreported. You would imagine as well.

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Speaker 2: The top five scam types in the combined data. We're

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Speaker 2: investment now, I'm going to do it quiz here. Oh, okay,

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Speaker 2: go on, go on, pick any can you get one

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Speaker 2: or two of the other fourths? So investment romance, Ah,

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Speaker 2: well done, number two? Yes?

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Speaker 1: What about you know when you get the Amazon has

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Speaker 1: been suspended like all those delivery ones? Does that come

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Speaker 1: in under one of these ones e commerce scams?

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Speaker 2: I don't think so.

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Speaker 1: So.

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Speaker 2: Payment redirection maybe that is payment redirect, claim that claim

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Speaker 2: it remote access is the fourth one, and phishing scams

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Speaker 2: is a fear.

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Speaker 1: It would be phishing that would technically probably be part

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Speaker 1: of a fishing scam, right, because you were getting these

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Speaker 1: messages asking you to click on this link to reconnect

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Speaker 1: your Amazon or to reconnect or to deal with an

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Speaker 1: inquiry from the ATO. Yes, that would be a phishing scam,

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Speaker 1: because after your info, it's.

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Speaker 2: Investment, romance, payment redirection, remote access and fishing. About seven

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Speaker 2: percent of total combined losses. Investment scams resulted in the

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Speaker 2: highest overall combined losses nearly a billion dollars reported lost

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Speaker 2: in twenty twenty four, though it was lower than a

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Speaker 2: year earlier. Last year, the National Anti Scam Center referred

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Speaker 2: more than eight thousand URLs for takedown.

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Speaker 1: That's a lot. High end housing auctions across the country

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Speaker 1: showed strong growth in prices last month, which is an

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Speaker 1: indicator of a pickup in the overall market.

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Speaker 2: So the top twenty five percent of homes in terms

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Speaker 2: of value, known as the Bellweather segment, they raise zero

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Speaker 2: point two percent in February. They had fallen zero point

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Speaker 2: three percent in January. So that's a great turnaround. Now

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Speaker 2: the lower quarter, or the bottom twenty five percent, actually

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Speaker 2: was up zero point four percent. But the point is

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Speaker 2: that the upper end has seen a much sharper turnaround.

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Speaker 2: According to core Logic, that is the end most sensitive

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Speaker 2: to interest rates. It tends to lead the market, so

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Speaker 2: the fact that that has turned around could be good

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Speaker 2: news for the rest of the market. Core Logic says

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Speaker 2: that Sydney and Melbourne houses and units most again from

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Speaker 2: a reduction in rates.

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Speaker 1: There's another board CEO staush going on. I love Stausch, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: me too. This one is at Burns Group Polinovo, which

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Speaker 1: talked about them in the past, but this time the

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Speaker 1: chairman seems to have actually won, as opposed to what

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Speaker 1: happened at Wistech Global, where the chair and three other

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Speaker 1: directors resigned after the CEO got his way.

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Speaker 2: Yes, so Polyovo's chief executive, Swami Royoti has stepped down

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Speaker 2: effective immediately after the board and he failed to reach

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Speaker 2: agreement over certain interactions between the chair guy called David

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Speaker 2: Williams and some members of the management team. Poly Nave

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Speaker 2: shares fell nine percent following the announcement. It's lost about

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Speaker 2: twenty percent of its value after the dispute between Royoti,

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Speaker 2: Williams and other directors was leaked. It's down about fifty

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Speaker 2: percent over the last year. So it is a really

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Speaker 2: poorly performing stock anyway. But we're just seeing more of

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Speaker 2: these stauss come to light. So you mentioned wis tech

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Speaker 2: Global and Richard White. We also had mineral resources in

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Speaker 2: Chris Ellison. Of course those two were founders. Swami Rayality

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Speaker 2: isn't a founder of Polynovo, but it is kind of

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Speaker 2: I think significant that we're actually hearing more about fights

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Speaker 2: between board and management.

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Speaker 1: And just a quick one while we are in the

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Speaker 1: health sector, Sean, the biggest landlord of health Scope, the

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Speaker 1: country's second largest hospital operator, will allow the company to

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Speaker 1: defer rent on eleven hospitals.

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Speaker 2: So last week it emerged that health Scope had failed

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Speaker 2: to pay rent and was threatened with eviction by another

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Speaker 2: landlord crowd called health Co Healthcare, which are listed but

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Speaker 2: Canada's Northwest Healthcare is a little more for giving health

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Speaker 2: Scope time to re negotiate one point six billion dollars

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Speaker 2: in debt. Later in the day yesterday, one of the

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Speaker 2: options that came out as being explored and confirm it's

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Speaker 2: being explored, is sale of the business.

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Speaker 1: Just give us a quick wrap of the latest corporate

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Speaker 1: We obviously had the share market sell off. What else

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Speaker 1: is going on in corporate land?

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Speaker 2: So kind of some interesting titbits, shall we say, Michael

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Speaker 2: Guzmani Gomez fell two and a half percent after it

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Speaker 2: released fifteen point four million shares from esc Worth around

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Speaker 2: five hundred and fifteen million dollars. That means a bunch

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Speaker 2: of people can now sell those shares and potentially get

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Speaker 2: very rich by that one Sarncorp's hold investors. The majority

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Speaker 2: of insurance claims lodged after extropical cyclone Alfred fell within

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Speaker 2: the government's cyclone reinsurance pool. Good news for them. Nickel

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Speaker 2: Industry share price tumbled eighteen percent. The AX said, why

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Speaker 2: has it fallen so much? They said, well, rather large investors.

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Speaker 2: Looks like they've sold out, or at least sold down.

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Speaker 2: And finally, Star Entertainment has confirmed it's negotiating with property

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Speaker 2: funds management Giant Salter To Brothers for a seven hundred

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Speaker 2: and fifty million dollar refinancing package that would secure the

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Speaker 2: ailing casino groups long term financial future. And Disney Sean

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Speaker 2: is considering spending more money on domestic sports rights as

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Speaker 2: it prepares to launch ESPN on a streaming app in

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Speaker 2: direct competition to Foxtel from the end of the month.

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Speaker 2: This could get intense. Yeah, Look, the NBA, Major League Baseball, NHL,

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Speaker 2: the Hockey League and UFC Fight Night will appear on

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Speaker 2: Disney Pass from March to six. Disney Plus has about

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Speaker 2: three point one million subscribers in this country. It also

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Speaker 2: has investments in the local basketball competition, the National Basketball

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Speaker 2: League here. The NBL. ESPN will remain on Foxtel and

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Speaker 2: ko Telstra's Fetch TV, but Foxtel for example, much much

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Speaker 2: more expensive than Disney Plus. So if you're a fan

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Speaker 2: in my household, we watch the NBA a lot, the

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Speaker 2: children like it. Well, my household, the ESPN's going to

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Speaker 2: beyond Disney Plus, we have that that's a lot cheaper

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Speaker 2: option to Foxtel.

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Speaker 1: Is it going to cost more for Disney.

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Speaker 2: So as it stands, whenever you play for Disney Plus

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Speaker 2: now is and for me it's about twenty percent in

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Speaker 2: the cost of Foxtail and obviously Fox Tail you get

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Speaker 2: a bunch of other stuff as well. But if that's

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Speaker 2: what you want to look at, that's what you're going.

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Speaker 1: It's interesting then where it positions Disney kind of in

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Speaker 1: the middle of the market, and because Disney Plus is

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Speaker 1: more expensive than some of your other streaming platforms, but

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Speaker 1: you will now get more value because of the sporting content.

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Speaker 2: Talking about putting money into sport, and that's gone good

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Speaker 2: for the big sporting codes in Australia who are looking

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Speaker 2: for competitors to Free to wear Disney Disney Plus. Right,

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Speaker 2: it's now the third biggest streaming service in Australia.

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Speaker 1: How many people did you say?

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Speaker 2: Three point one million? Three point one one Flix, Amazon

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Speaker 2: Prime the top two. Disney Plus quite bigger than stan.

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Speaker 1: Let's turn to international news. Now. Elon Musk is under

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Speaker 1: pressure to spend more time running his businesses and less

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Speaker 1: time advising Donald Trump. With all three of his main businesses,

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Speaker 1: and these aren't little kind of small businesses, it's a

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Speaker 1: big This is EV maker, Tesla, social media site X,

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Speaker 1: rocket maker SpaceX. All three of them are running into

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Speaker 1: challenges at the moment.

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Speaker 2: It's been a tough week. On Monday, US time years

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Speaker 2: as the X reported widespread outages. The same day, Tesla

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Speaker 2: stock film more than fifteen percent. As I mentioned, the

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Speaker 2: mid concerns including declining EV sales and politically driven protests

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Speaker 2: against the manufacturer. And of course, last week, a SpaceX

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Speaker 2: rocket exploded in Florida during the launch, showering some places

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Speaker 2: with debris. According to The New York Times, that Musk

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Speaker 2: blamed the X issues on a cyber attack stemming from

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Speaker 2: Ukraine that didn't provide any evidence on that. He posted

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Speaker 2: on an X that Democratic donors were responsible for seeding

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Speaker 2: protests against Tesla, again without evidence, and in response to

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Speaker 2: the space X explosion, he simply said an X rocks

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Speaker 2: are hard.

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Speaker 1: Got to mention another tweet. This one came from the

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Speaker 1: President and it is the most public sign of display

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Speaker 1: for Elon Musk from Donald Trump, and it came through

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Speaker 1: yesterday afternoon, and he basically said, this is Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: on X, Elon Muskers putting it all on the line

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Speaker 1: in order to help our nation, and he is doing

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Speaker 1: a fantastic job.

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Speaker 2: All caps as.

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Speaker 1: Obviously, But he goes on to a whole bunch of

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Speaker 1: other things that Elon Musker's under attack unfairly. All of this.

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Speaker 1: In any event, I'm going to buy a brand new

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Speaker 1: Tesla tomorrow morning as a show of confidence and support

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Speaker 1: for Elon Musk, a truly great American. Why should he

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Speaker 1: be punished for putting his tremendous skills to work in

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Speaker 1: order to help make America great again?

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Speaker 2: All caps fantastic? Does that mean that Donald Trump is

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Speaker 2: conceding that Elon Musk working with him is part of

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Speaker 2: the reason Tesla sales I've gone through the floor.

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Speaker 1: It certainly does feel that way. Yeah, but it's going

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Speaker 1: to buy a Tesla? Does that mean that now instead

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Speaker 1: of the beast, you know, the big kind of armored

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Speaker 1: vehicle that the President has driven around in, it's going

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Speaker 1: to be a cyber truck.

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Speaker 2: I wonder about in Australia at least the typical buyer

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Speaker 2: of a Tesla is like environmentally aware, you would smaller distance.

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Speaker 2: So I'm guessing in a city. Just not sure whether

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Speaker 2: they're quite Donald Trump voters.

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Speaker 1: No, you would say that anecdote, they would be perhaps

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Speaker 1: more left lean, you think so anyway, just an observation, really,

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Speaker 1: Sean Anyway. Up next is the Fear and Greed Daily

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Speaker 1: interview with Tim Hext from Pendle Group. A great conversation,

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Speaker 1: definitely one for anyone who is interested in investing and

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Speaker 1: navigating very all the tile times. It is coming up

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Speaker 1: in the Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform

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Speaker 1: or at Fearangreed dot com Today you which is also

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Speaker 1: where you sign up for our free weekly newsletter, which

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Speaker 1: Sean comes out today.

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Speaker 2: Full of great information opinion. You cannot miss it. In fact,

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Speaker 2: I don't give anything away. I'm that excited about it anyway.

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Speaker 1: Any reason for that, Sean.

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Speaker 2: It's going to be minting in my mind.

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Speaker 1: It's going to be baked fresh, that's it, in the

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Speaker 1: next couple of hours. So sign up for that one

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Speaker 1: at Fear Andgreed dot com today. You thank you very much, Sean,

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Speaker 1: Thank you, Michael. It is Wednesday, the twelfth of March

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty five. Make sure you're following the podcast to

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Speaker 1: please join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael Thompson and that was Fear and Greed. Have

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Speaker 1: a great day.