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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed. Big company bosses push Australia's

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Speaker 1: strong position in the global economy, highlighting big opportunities for

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Speaker 1: the country. Netflix does revenue in Australia surges, but the

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Speaker 1: tax at pays remains minuscule. And more bad economic news

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Speaker 1: from the consumer sector. Plus seven thousand builders and subcontractors

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Speaker 1: go under in three years, and Donald Trump wants to

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Speaker 1: reopen alcatraz As of prison. Welcome to Fear and Greed,

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Speaker 1: daily business news for people who make their own decisions.

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Speaker 1: It is Wednesday, the seventh of May twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Morning, Michael, do you reckon? We'll get a day where

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Speaker 2: we don't talk about Donald Trump.

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Speaker 1: If he keeps delivering gems like this, I doubt it.

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Speaker 2: Okay, good on with the show.

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Speaker 1: On with the show. First, a mention of the newsletter. Yes,

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Speaker 1: another great newsletter today, Sean. Our Fear and Greed daily newsletter.

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Speaker 1: It used to be weekly and we moved it to daily.

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Speaker 1: Every weekday you can get a free email email.

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Speaker 2: It tells you when you're going into work. If you

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Speaker 2: have a quick glance at the news, that'll take you

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Speaker 2: two or three minutes to read. By the time you

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Speaker 2: get to your desk, you'll be across the five big stories.

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Speaker 2: You'll have a bit of opinion to think about, ah,

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Speaker 2: some quirky tables and that you can throw at friends

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Speaker 2: to boast at the water cooler. Basically, you want to

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Speaker 2: get ahead, just read the newsletter before you get to work.

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Speaker 1: Well said, It is entirely free, and you sign up

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Speaker 1: at our website Fear Andgreed dot com dot au. I'll

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Speaker 1: put a link in today's show notes as well, so

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Speaker 1: you can just click on that and head straight through

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Speaker 1: to pop your email address in. And it has taken

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Speaker 1: off in the last few weeks, so thank you to

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Speaker 1: everyone who has subscribed. On with the show. As you say, Sean,

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Speaker 1: the main story this morning, the bosses of Macquarie Bank,

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Speaker 1: Westpac and West Farmers, among others, are confident about the

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Speaker 1: Australian outlook amid global uncertainty, saying that we benefit from

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Speaker 1: a new stable government and being an attractive destination for

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Speaker 1: global capital.

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Speaker 2: More than one hundred companies are presenting the annual Macquarie

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Speaker 2: Conference this week. Not often do you get so many

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Speaker 2: listed companies all in the same place. The message is

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Speaker 2: pretty clear. Amid all the Trump craziness, Australia is looking

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Speaker 2: pretty good. Mcquarie CEO Shamara Ramena Yaka said Australia is

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Speaker 2: well positioned as we head into troubled waters flowing from

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Speaker 2: the US. The economy is reasonably okay in Australia inflations falling,

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Speaker 2: a recession is unlikely. We also have a stable government,

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Speaker 2: as demonstrated by the weekend's poll. Both these factors are

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Speaker 2: in sharp contrast to the US. The result is that

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Speaker 2: capital could flow into Australia, according to Ramena Yaka, out

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Speaker 2: of the US as investors look to park funds during

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Speaker 2: the Trump years. It's an argument similar to what Anthony Miller,

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Speaker 2: the CEO of Westpac, made on Monday after the bank's results.

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Speaker 2: Another talking on the topic yesterday was West Farmer's boss

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Speaker 2: Rob Scott. He said the election result gave the Labour

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Speaker 2: government a unique opportunity to lean into some much needed reform,

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Speaker 2: productivity tax, that type of stuff. Seven Groups Ryan Stokes

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Speaker 2: was speaking. He also argued that there is an opportunity

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Speaker 2: in Australia now to grow profits. Now. There's always an opportunity,

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Speaker 2: but the point they're making is given how stable our

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Speaker 2: environment is, Australia is relatively more attractive than many other economies.

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Speaker 1: I know that stability and certainty is all important for business,

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Speaker 1: but it does seem somewhat ironic that big business is

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Speaker 1: talking so positively about a center left government. How much

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Speaker 1: of this, sean is wishful thinking? How much of it

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Speaker 1: is well reality?

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Speaker 2: Yes, it's a very good point, is and I mean,

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Speaker 2: I'm sure there's a bit of both. I'm sure it

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Speaker 2: is wishful thinking, but there is reality. Because the federal

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Speaker 2: government as we have it today has such a mandate

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Speaker 2: it is able to do stuff. I mean, there's a

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Speaker 2: sense that label will govern Australia for quite some time

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Speaker 2: six years at least, that gives them runway to create

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Speaker 2: change in Big business is trying to encourage them to

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Speaker 2: do that. Business I mean, it wants to do things

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Speaker 2: about economic growth at are fundamental to earnings productivity, But

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Speaker 2: they're actually just really pushing for reform without actually having

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Speaker 2: one unified voice about exactly what needs to change now.

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Speaker 2: The union movement is keen for the ALP to look

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Speaker 2: at after workers wages conditions. Of course, as well, there's

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Speaker 2: many community groups out there who put their hand up

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Speaker 2: as a healthcare universal healthcare, for example, is a really

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Speaker 2: important policy. Whatever they ask, the ALP does have the

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Speaker 2: opportunity to make a difference, and business leaders want Anthony

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Speaker 2: Alberanezi and his team to do that.

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Speaker 1: All right, now, local markets, how did things go yesterday?

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Speaker 2: Well, there's in PISX two hundred closed down slightly to

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Speaker 2: eighty one hundred and fifty one points. Healthcare stocks led

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Speaker 2: the market lower. Energy and property companies did best. There

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Speaker 2: was a stack of information out yesterday because of this

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Speaker 2: Macquarie conference. So worst on the boss was HMC Capital.

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Speaker 2: It fell six percent after saying it's in talks with

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Speaker 2: hospital operators about them taking control a lot of the

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Speaker 2: eleven health Scope hospitals it owns seeing their healthcare. Fell

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Speaker 2: sharply after it revealed the cost of that merger with

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Speaker 2: Chemist Warehouse. Tabcorp actually did really well, jump nine percent

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Speaker 2: after it said it hadn't noticed the discernible change in

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Speaker 2: consumer demand. I always think that's interesting because it's in gaming,

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Speaker 2: one of the few things that does well in a recession.

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Speaker 2: People are in cigarettes in gaming. Yes, Data Center Builder

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Speaker 2: and Operated NEXTDC share price jump d eight percent after it

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Speaker 2: said it was accelerating spending on new facilities following a

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Speaker 2: rush of orders. Very good news for it. The other

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Speaker 2: interesting we've spoken a bit about all prices in recent days.

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Speaker 2: Crude oil prices picked up a touch yesterday, still about

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Speaker 2: sixty one US dollars a barrel. People still think it

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Speaker 2: will fall or the price world will fall lower, which

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Speaker 2: of course leads to lower costs at the bowser and

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Speaker 2: not so good news for Woodside and Santos Tho Sean.

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Speaker 1: Before we take a quick break, I need to mention

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Speaker 1: the fact that this time next.

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Speaker 2: Week, don't mention it, you will.

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Speaker 1: Be saddling up. Do you saddle up a bike?

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Speaker 2: I think you settle up a bike.

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Speaker 1: Certainly get a source saddle indeed on the bike, and

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Speaker 1: especially after three hundred and eighty kilometers, which is a

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Speaker 1: long way to ride.

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Speaker 2: I went for a twenty five kilometer ride yesterday and

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Speaker 2: I thought I'm going to ride hard. I wrote hard

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Speaker 2: twenty five. My legs were sore and all sorts. I'm thinking, well,

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Speaker 2: each day I've only got to do five times that

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Speaker 2: surely it can't be too hard.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the effects won't like compound.

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Speaker 2: Or no no, no no no, Good night sleep I think.

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Speaker 1: You'll be fine anyway. You're doing it for a good cause.

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Speaker 1: You're writing three hundred and eighty kilometers through parts of

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Speaker 1: kind of far western New South Wales. You're doing it

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Speaker 1: for the This is the ride for Country Kids as

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Speaker 1: part of Royal Far West of fantastic charity. It raises

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Speaker 1: money to really help give rural and regional kids the

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Speaker 1: best opportunity.

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Speaker 2: That's exactly right. And it's our five year anniversary this year,

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Speaker 2: this month it is and we decided that, you know,

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Speaker 2: we kind of work hard and we should give back

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Speaker 2: to the community because the community gives us so much.

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Speaker 2: And that's why Royal Far West, which is one hundred

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Speaker 2: years this year, is our charity of choice at least

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Speaker 2: for mate to celebrate our fifth year anniversary.

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Speaker 1: And so thank you to everyone who has donated to

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Speaker 1: the team, people like Anika Bradley from Uni Souper, Charrelle Murphy,

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Speaker 1: Rachel Slade from NAB But it's basically who of people

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Speaker 1: who are who have kind of been listening to Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed for a while and appeared on the show.

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Speaker 1: So thank you very much. I'll put a link in

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Speaker 1: the show notes and maybe if you're able to help out.

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Speaker 1: It will be very much appreciated. We'll take a quick break,

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Speaker 1: Sewan and'll be back in a moment with the rest

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Speaker 1: of the day's business news.

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Speaker 2: Sean.

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Speaker 1: In politics, the recriminations for the Liberal Party continue. There

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Speaker 1: is a push within the party to adopt gender quotas

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Speaker 1: to help its appeal to more voters.

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Speaker 2: The Libs have a problem appealing to women. That seems

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Speaker 2: pretty clear. New South Wales Liberal Senator Maria Covid Chick

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Speaker 2: yesterday said the coalition needs to implement gender quotas to

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Speaker 2: ensure more women are elected now. The lack of female

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Speaker 2: support contributed to the Liberal Party being on track to

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Speaker 2: record its lowest primary vote since its formation in the

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Speaker 2: nineteen forties. Extraordinary. At the moment, it has just thirty

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Speaker 2: nine seats in the one hundred and fifty seat House

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Speaker 2: of Reps, though it does look a little better in

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Speaker 2: a couple of electorates where they're up against teals. While

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Speaker 2: leadership candidates Susan Lee, Angus Taylor and Dan Tien are

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Speaker 2: weighing up their bids to lead the party, National Senate

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Speaker 2: leader Bridget Mackenzie says the coalition, including the Nationals, need

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Speaker 2: a deep honest and brutal examination.

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Speaker 1: I was reading yesterday that based on the demographic splits,

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Speaker 1: female voters of every single age preferred Labor Wow, which

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Speaker 1: does tell you that the Liberal Party has a significant

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Speaker 1: problem there. You've got a great conversation about this after

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Speaker 1: the show. You're speaking with Charles Croucher from nine.

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Speaker 2: Yes, we go into the fact that women didn't vote

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Speaker 2: for the Coalition and for the Liberals for Peter Dunn.

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Speaker 2: Charles of course ran the nine coverage over the weekend,

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Speaker 2: one of the you know, the best political commentators in

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Speaker 2: the country without a doubt. Also, as you like to say,

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Speaker 2: he's got a great turn of phrase, he really does.

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Speaker 2: So it's a very entertaining chat. It's about where the

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Speaker 2: Libs go from here, what Labour can do, what about

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Speaker 2: the Greens, what about the Teals.

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Speaker 1: The best part is that he just he doesn't mince words.

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Speaker 1: He tells you exactly what he thinks, and that's what

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Speaker 1: you want from an analyst, totally political analyst Sean. Netflix

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Speaker 1: has reported a sharp jump in Australian revenue to one

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Speaker 1: point three billion dollars, most of which was sent overseas

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Speaker 1: to reduce its local tax obligations.

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Speaker 2: Netflix has an estimated six point two million subscribers in Australia.

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Speaker 2: It posted a twenty three point three million dollar profit

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Speaker 2: in the last calendar year according to annual account's Lodge

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Speaker 2: with Assex, so one point three billion only made twenty

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Speaker 2: three point three million officially. That compares to revenue the

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Speaker 2: previous financial year of one point one and twenty two

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Speaker 2: million dollar profit. According to the AFR, the streaming giants

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Speaker 2: thin one point seven percent profit margin came primarily because

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Speaker 2: the company paid one point two billion dollars in distribution fees.

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Speaker 2: Whatever they are to other companies in the Netflix group

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Speaker 2: basically means it shifted ninety three percent of its local

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Speaker 2: revenue abroad and didn't have to pay tax on it.

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Speaker 1: The boss of building group Mervak, says the collapse of

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Speaker 1: almost seven thousand builders and subcontractors in the last three

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Speaker 1: years is weighing on developers and pushing up the cost

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Speaker 1: of building a new home amid the housing crisis.

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Speaker 2: Campbell Hannon said building costs were one of the sector's

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Speaker 2: greatest challenges. According to report in The Australian and I

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Speaker 2: quote Campbell, the fact that you have wonderful Tier one

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Speaker 2: builders losing money still four years after COVID. That's a

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Speaker 2: sign that things have to correct in a certain way.

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Speaker 2: The result, he said, is the cost of building is

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Speaker 2: going to keep going up and up for a long time.

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Speaker 1: That's the anecdotal evidence I suppose, you'd say, of a

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Speaker 1: tough time for the building sector. The problem is, though, Shawn,

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Speaker 1: the official figures from the Bureau of Stats, well, there's

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Speaker 1: no better news.

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Speaker 2: There either, no, not really. The recovery in building approvals

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Speaker 2: well and truly stalled in March. In fact, approvals in

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Speaker 2: that month were down nine percent. Building approvals though, are

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Speaker 2: runing at about one hundred and ninety five thousand K a month,

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Speaker 2: which is up twenty three percent from its low of

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Speaker 2: early twenty twenty three. The good news, I suppose Australia's

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Speaker 2: population growth is now slowing from lower net migration. That

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Speaker 2: means that dwelling approvals and they are running about a

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Speaker 2: comparable pace to additional housing demand from migration. That takes

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Speaker 2: some of the heat out of the crisis.

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Speaker 1: And just staying with the Bureau of Statistics, it's it's

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Speaker 1: hard to say, Sean, your our statistics it's not really

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Speaker 1: showing off now, aren't you. Well, staying with the ABS.

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Speaker 1: It's a new measure of household spending disappointed in March

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Speaker 1: with spending going backwards.

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Speaker 2: It's the first fall after five consecutive positive months now.

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Speaker 2: It did include ex tropical cyclone Alfred spending in Queensland

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Speaker 2: that dragged back. It's a new series. It will eventually

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Speaker 2: replace retail sales. A lot of caution around the figure,

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Speaker 2: but it's quite inclusive and it really does tell you

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Speaker 2: what the consumer is doing. There is no doubt based

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Speaker 2: on those numbers, plus what we heard at the mcquari

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Speaker 2: conference yesterday that consumers are still cautious about spending things

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Speaker 2: like alcohol, tobacco, hotels, cafes, restaurants. Spending in those areas

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Speaker 2: are all going backwards. The consumer sector seems to have stalled,

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Speaker 2: just as an adjunct rate cut announcement twenty may reserve bank.

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Speaker 2: If you're listening, you need a reason here, it is there.

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Speaker 1: It is right there. CSL says a reluctance to get

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Speaker 1: vaccinated in the US has been challenging, but it's encouraged

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Speaker 1: by an uptick in expansion in other markets, including Germany

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Speaker 1: and France.

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Speaker 2: So speaking at the mcquarie's at McQuary's annual conference, CFO

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Speaker 2: Chief financial Officer Joy Linton said that the US experienced

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Speaker 2: one of the worst flu seasons ever, which would usually

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Speaker 2: result in an increase in doctors recommending a vaccine in

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Speaker 2: the following period, but they reckon this way happened due

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Speaker 2: to the new Republican administration's aversion to inoculations. Linton said,

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Speaker 2: CSL has no confidence in vaccinations peaking up, which is

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Speaker 2: bad for public health now. The one hundred and twenty

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Speaker 2: three billion dollar company has been producing seasonal flu vaccine

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Speaker 2: since the nineteen forties. Its share price closed down three

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Speaker 2: percent yesterday.

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Speaker 1: Okay, turning to international news now sean overnight. Friedrich Mertz

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Speaker 1: took office as Germany's Chancellor at a time of economic

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Speaker 1: and geopolitical upheaval for Europe's largest democracy.

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Speaker 2: The sixty nine year old Christian Democrat, who won elections

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Speaker 2: in February and has teamed up with the Social Democrats

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Speaker 2: to form a majority government, became Postwar War Germany's tenth chancellor.

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Speaker 2: It ends six months of government near paralysis following the

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Speaker 2: collapse of departing Chancellor ol Off Schultz's coalition in November.

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Speaker 2: Germany at the moment, Michael It hasn't got a budget.

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Speaker 2: It's pretty much been unable to deal with any of

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Speaker 2: the Trump tariff threats. Ukraine is on its doorstep now. Mertz,

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Speaker 2: who returned into politics in twenty eighteen after a decade

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Speaker 2: in the parrivate sector, we will have to tackle an

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Speaker 2: export oriented economy that's stagnated in the past three years

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Speaker 2: and higher energy prices in fierce Chinese competition. A very

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Speaker 2: big job ahead of him, and given how important Germany

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Speaker 2: is to Europe and the rest of the global economy,

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Speaker 2: I wish him well.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, massive job. Finally, Sean, we cannot possibly have a

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Speaker 1: show entirely devoid of Donald Trump. Well we could, theoretically,

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Speaker 1: but we would be missing out on some great stories,

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Speaker 1: wouldn't we. Because today's contribution, the President wants to reopen

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Speaker 1: the notorious Alcatraz, which is the prison island in San

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Speaker 1: Francisco Bay.

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Speaker 2: It's been closed for sixty years. He wants to substantially

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Speaker 2: enlarge and rebuild Alcatraz two house. I quote him America's

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Speaker 2: most ruthless and violent offenders end quote. And then he was,

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Speaker 2: of course, he was doing this on truth social The

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Speaker 2: reopening of Alcatraz, all in caps will serve as a

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Speaker 2: symbol of law, order and justice or caps. Trump has

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Speaker 2: instructed the Bureau of Prisons, the Justice Department in the

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Speaker 2: Homeland Security Department to work on his idea, along with

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Speaker 2: the FBI. Now I don't know why the FBI is

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Speaker 2: in there, because I don't actually incarcerate people.

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Speaker 1: Don't run prisons, do they They don't.

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Speaker 2: It would cost billions of dollars. Nowadays, Alcoatraz is a

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Speaker 2: national park and major tourist attraction. Have you ever been there?

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Speaker 1: I have? Have you been? Yeah, it's incredible, It is incredible.

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Speaker 2: I think the al Capones of the world were there. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: pretty phenomenal.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, my favorite part of this story, Royce's reported that

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Speaker 1: the President was talking to reporters when he got back

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Speaker 1: to the White House and said that reopening the prison

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Speaker 1: was just an idea I've had and decided to act on.

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Speaker 2: I do. I have to laugh a little bit, right,

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Speaker 2: But it's like one hundred percent tariff on film production, right.

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Speaker 2: They're really walking that backhard. No one thinks it's a

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Speaker 2: good idea. No one in the US, no one outside

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Speaker 2: the US. The White House has said, well, yeah, no,

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Speaker 2: I mean, this is something we're thinking about. And Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump said he was going to do it. It must

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Speaker 2: be very hard to work for him.

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Speaker 1: It must be really hard, and things like that. That

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Speaker 1: particular announcement has a massive effect. It disrupts a lot

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Speaker 1: of people in a very big industry. The Alcatraz announcement

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Speaker 1: isn't quite so significant, but just maybe a little bit

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Speaker 1: more planning before the announcement anyway. Showing up next Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed Daily Interview with nine's Charles Croucher. A great conversation.

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Speaker 1: Don't miss that one. It is coming up in the

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or at

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Speaker 1: Fearangreed dot com dot a. You thank you very much.

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Speaker 2: Hey you, Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Wednesday, the seventh of May twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us

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Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael

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Speaker 1: Thompson and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.