WEBVTT - Fires, floods and property values (with Nerida Conisbee) 0:00:08.840 --> 0:00:12.040 Hello and welcome to The Australians Money Puzzle podcast. I'm 0:00:12.160 --> 0:00:15.840 James Kirby, the editor at The Australian. Welcome aboard every body. 0:00:16.680 --> 0:00:18.919 You know, one thing we haven't really spoken of in 0:00:18.960 --> 0:00:22.079 any great detail on the Money Puzzle as been climate 0:00:22.160 --> 0:00:25.239 change and not so much the issue, but what it 0:00:25.400 --> 0:00:28.880 means for you as an investor or for that matter, 0:00:28.960 --> 0:00:32.840 as a property owner. And we're certainly getting a serious 0:00:32.880 --> 0:00:38.560 perspective on the impact of natural disasters fires, obviously in 0:00:38.600 --> 0:00:41.800 the case of the Los Angeles fires that are currently 0:00:41.920 --> 0:00:46.160 in the news so much. Also some fires in Australia, 0:00:46.200 --> 0:00:49.279 as you would have some summers, are worse than others. 0:00:49.560 --> 0:00:52.040 But we still have issues this year. We've had issues 0:00:52.040 --> 0:00:56.640 in Victoria and the Grampians, for instance, and I think 0:00:56.800 --> 0:00:59.880 it's time for us to look as property investors and 0:01:00.080 --> 0:01:07.880 investors at this issue and whether we can also realistically 0:01:07.920 --> 0:01:11.160 expect that this remains something of an issue in coastal 0:01:11.240 --> 0:01:14.080 areas or regional areas or out the bush. Because I 0:01:14.120 --> 0:01:16.880 supposed to extraordinary think about the Los Angeles fires as 0:01:16.920 --> 0:01:20.679 that they were suburban and there is nothing I'm afraid 0:01:20.760 --> 0:01:25.440 to say that we can't have suburban fires in Australia, 0:01:25.520 --> 0:01:28.520 which simply cannot rule that out. Likewise, we can't rule 0:01:28.560 --> 0:01:34.279 out dreadful summers in the future, which will be something 0:01:34.360 --> 0:01:36.560 like dreadful summers we've had in the past, and how 0:01:36.600 --> 0:01:40.520 that might affect properties in various areas, and how we 0:01:40.560 --> 0:01:43.080 will respond to that, and how would investors respond to that. 0:01:43.240 --> 0:01:47.240 So the obvious issue with fires is insurance, but I 0:01:47.240 --> 0:01:51.400 think a deeper issue is property value. Now, on that issue, 0:01:51.880 --> 0:01:54.200 I have been talking on and off for some time 0:01:54.360 --> 0:01:57.600 with Narrati Economsty who is the chief economists at Ray White. 0:01:57.640 --> 0:01:59.640 She's been on the show before, but we talked most 0:01:59.640 --> 0:02:04.080 trees above all this, and she had also been using 0:02:04.120 --> 0:02:07.200 a report which had been done on this issue, an 0:02:07.200 --> 0:02:09.359 academic report which was done on this issue at the 0:02:09.440 --> 0:02:15.760 University of New South Wales, specifically specifically on fires and 0:02:15.760 --> 0:02:18.120 property values. Hi, Narada, how are you? 0:02:18.760 --> 0:02:20.000 Hi? Thanks for having me. 0:02:20.360 --> 0:02:22.839 Great to have you on. As always, look, I think 0:02:22.880 --> 0:02:28.520 most people listening to the show would presume that it's 0:02:28.560 --> 0:02:31.880 basically bad news if there's fire in an area, that 0:02:31.880 --> 0:02:34.720 that area will be damaged, not just in terms of 0:02:34.720 --> 0:02:37.400 it's the natural damage or the insurance damage, but it 0:02:37.400 --> 0:02:40.720 would be damaged as a property zone for some time, 0:02:40.760 --> 0:02:44.519 and so would neighboring zones. What have you found out 0:02:44.520 --> 0:02:46.280 of late from this academic work. 0:02:46.840 --> 0:02:49.560 Yes, so the research that the University of New South 0:02:49.600 --> 0:02:53.919 Wales did show that absolutely there is a negative impact 0:02:54.040 --> 0:02:57.360 on property values. It looks specifically at property values, so 0:02:57.480 --> 0:02:59.840 obviously there's a lot of other damage that takes place, 0:03:00.040 --> 0:03:03.399 but the research found between a six to twenty four 0:03:03.440 --> 0:03:08.840 percent impact on property values. But interestingly that the recovery 0:03:09.040 --> 0:03:13.480 was generally quite quick, So the recovery was between eighteen 0:03:13.840 --> 0:03:18.200 months and two years. So even though the impacts were great, 0:03:18.360 --> 0:03:21.839 things tended to bounce back. But there was a lot 0:03:21.880 --> 0:03:25.040 of nuances and I think this is the key with 0:03:25.160 --> 0:03:29.920 the research, that there was many things which impact influenced 0:03:30.040 --> 0:03:34.840 that impact and as a result is it does make 0:03:34.880 --> 0:03:38.080 it quite difficult to calculate exactly what will happen once 0:03:38.080 --> 0:03:40.760 we do see more natural disasters happening. 0:03:42.360 --> 0:03:47.160 But their work so far came to the conclusion that 0:03:47.240 --> 0:03:52.040 bushfire zilms and there can be anywhere coastal didn't it 0:03:52.080 --> 0:03:55.640 didn't make a difference. In fact, floods and fires as 0:03:55.680 --> 0:03:59.360 I recalled, didn't really make a difference natural disaster in 0:03:59.400 --> 0:04:03.080 an area damages the property value for a short period, 0:04:03.160 --> 0:04:06.560 and this recovers, and it recovers in line with the market. 0:04:06.920 --> 0:04:08.920 Is that right, So if it covers back to where 0:04:08.920 --> 0:04:12.120 it was, so there's no there's no evidence of permanent 0:04:12.160 --> 0:04:15.120 damage to property prices from fires in an area. 0:04:15.240 --> 0:04:18.760 Can we see or that far? No, I don't think 0:04:18.800 --> 0:04:21.000 we can say that far. I mean there are there 0:04:21.040 --> 0:04:25.239 are many influences in terms of how quickly and whether 0:04:25.360 --> 0:04:28.360 whether the era will recover. I guess the first one 0:04:28.400 --> 0:04:31.279 is the desirability of the area. So if you know, 0:04:31.320 --> 0:04:34.520 we know that people love to live near rivers, they 0:04:34.640 --> 0:04:36.800 like to live near beaches, they like to live near 0:04:36.880 --> 0:04:40.480 bush and as a result, if that area is fire 0:04:40.560 --> 0:04:43.760 damaged but it's highly desirable it it does tend to 0:04:43.800 --> 0:04:47.520 recover quicker. Insurance. There's a big one you mentioned insurance earlier. 0:04:47.800 --> 0:04:50.240 If it is an area that is well insured and 0:04:50.400 --> 0:04:53.440 people are able to rebuild, often they will rebuild better, 0:04:53.720 --> 0:04:58.880 better homes, perhaps more flameproof homes or more beautiful homes, 0:04:59.040 --> 0:05:03.000 and that also does impact property values. The wealth of 0:05:03.040 --> 0:05:05.840 an area makes a difference. If people are wealthy, they 0:05:05.880 --> 0:05:08.159 tend to be better and should, but they also do 0:05:08.360 --> 0:05:12.560 tend to build nicer homes when they do rebuild, and 0:05:12.600 --> 0:05:16.480 then nothing important importantly is it's the government response as well. 0:05:16.560 --> 0:05:17.880 So if the. 0:05:17.839 --> 0:05:21.719 Government does make the area more fireproof, if they can 0:05:21.760 --> 0:05:25.840 put in measures to prevent something similar occurring again, then 0:05:25.920 --> 0:05:28.960 that does tend to lead to people feeling more safe 0:05:29.040 --> 0:05:33.080 to rebuild and to buy in these areas. I think, though, 0:05:33.120 --> 0:05:36.159 what the findings did show is that not everywhere recovers, 0:05:36.200 --> 0:05:39.279 and you know, I think that's the key. That there's 0:05:39.320 --> 0:05:41.520 some area, you know, you look at flooding, for example, 0:05:41.560 --> 0:05:45.160 Brisbane River, the flooding of that made little impact of 0:05:45.279 --> 0:05:48.200 property values long term because people in Brisbane love living 0:05:48.240 --> 0:05:50.719 near rivers. But if you have a look at somewhere 0:05:50.760 --> 0:05:54.480 like Lismore, then that has had a much greater negative 0:05:54.560 --> 0:05:58.159 impact and the recovery hasn't been as quick and perhaps 0:05:58.160 --> 0:06:01.320 a little bit to do with the desirability and perhaps 0:06:01.360 --> 0:06:04.720 also because it isn't such a wealthy area as places 0:06:04.760 --> 0:06:06.280 close to the Brisbane River are. 0:06:08.240 --> 0:06:10.919 So would it be fair to say that prime property 0:06:11.279 --> 0:06:16.360 there's no evidence that prime property long term vndues are 0:06:16.400 --> 0:06:17.719 damaged by fire. 0:06:17.680 --> 0:06:19.719 And I think, you know, I think coming back to 0:06:19.760 --> 0:06:24.040 all the influences on the price on prices bouncing back. 0:06:24.400 --> 0:06:27.839 It is prime property and it is insurance related. And 0:06:27.920 --> 0:06:31.839 also I think too there's an element with insurance that 0:06:32.120 --> 0:06:35.279 at some point insurance premiums will be too high for 0:06:35.400 --> 0:06:39.120 people to see these areas as being worthwhile living in, 0:06:39.160 --> 0:06:42.440 and that will definitely have an impact on price on pricing. 0:06:42.600 --> 0:06:46.800 But for now, people are accepting the premiums that are 0:06:46.839 --> 0:06:50.600 put in place, accepting the risk, and as a result, 0:06:50.640 --> 0:06:55.520 prices are coming back following these natural disasters taking place. 0:06:56.480 --> 0:07:00.359 So what would disturb that repeated fires? Is that? Is 0:07:00.400 --> 0:07:02.560 that the issue that might change things? 0:07:02.920 --> 0:07:06.599 Yeah, I think it's I mean, obviously repeated fires. I think, 0:07:06.880 --> 0:07:10.040 you know, price pricing is one thing, and be extremely 0:07:10.080 --> 0:07:13.960 distressing to have to live through multiple fires. But also, 0:07:14.280 --> 0:07:18.000 I mean, premiums will do rise after natural disasters. We 0:07:18.280 --> 0:07:21.120 know that that takes place. But at some point there 0:07:21.160 --> 0:07:24.239 would be for every individual that would be a tipping 0:07:24.280 --> 0:07:27.840 point at which insurance costs are not worth it for 0:07:27.880 --> 0:07:30.960 them to live in these areas, despite them being incredibly 0:07:31.000 --> 0:07:33.240 attractive and desirable areas to live in. 0:07:34.160 --> 0:07:37.520 Okay, have we any data on the level of uninsured 0:07:37.560 --> 0:07:40.240 people in these areas? No? 0:07:40.400 --> 0:07:43.240 I mean, I'm sure the insurance Council would probably have 0:07:43.360 --> 0:07:45.680 some data on that. But you know, we do know 0:07:45.680 --> 0:07:48.800 that there are areas around Australia that, do you know, 0:07:48.960 --> 0:07:52.480 that are very very expensive to ensure, and then these 0:07:52.520 --> 0:07:56.240 areas are often flood prone or bushfire prone, so you know, 0:07:56.920 --> 0:07:59.200 and again coming back to the desirability of the area, 0:07:59.200 --> 0:08:02.000 there's always that between you know, what you're paying on 0:08:02.080 --> 0:08:04.800 insurance and how much you really want to live near 0:08:04.840 --> 0:08:08.120 a beach or a river or a bushfire prine area. 0:08:09.560 --> 0:08:12.800 Okay, so you're the chief economist of very White, So 0:08:13.360 --> 0:08:16.840 tell the listeners, from what you know now and from 0:08:16.880 --> 0:08:20.880 reading these reports, how they should approach property in an 0:08:20.880 --> 0:08:24.000 area where they are knowingly taking the risk of fire 0:08:24.080 --> 0:08:27.440 or flood, which are plenty of areas, and some of 0:08:27.640 --> 0:08:31.240 unfortunately some of the most attractive areas in Australia, like 0:08:31.280 --> 0:08:33.880 Brisbane River a very good, very very very good example. 0:08:33.920 --> 0:08:36.199 You've got areas in Brisbane, like Saint Lucia that are 0:08:36.559 --> 0:08:40.840 literally they are they have been underwater many times in 0:08:40.880 --> 0:08:42.839 their history and it will probably happen again. 0:08:43.840 --> 0:08:45.640 Yeah, so I guess I mean the first point would 0:08:45.679 --> 0:08:48.400 be looking at insurance premiums. I think that would be 0:08:48.760 --> 0:08:51.680 a critical one can you ensure what is it possible 0:08:51.720 --> 0:08:55.520 to ensure for particularly flood. You have different insurance have 0:08:55.600 --> 0:08:58.880 different views as to how they'll ensure for flood and bushfire. 0:08:58.960 --> 0:09:01.640 So that would be my first step. But secondly i'd 0:09:01.679 --> 0:09:04.840 be looking to at the house. You know, how well 0:09:04.880 --> 0:09:08.319 would the property with standard fire, how well would it 0:09:08.600 --> 0:09:10.840 with standard flooding? And what we found on the Brisbane 0:09:11.400 --> 0:09:14.200 River is that following a lot of the flooding that 0:09:14.240 --> 0:09:16.680 took place, people did rebuild and they did put the 0:09:16.720 --> 0:09:19.439 homes on higher still, so you know that that's obviously 0:09:19.480 --> 0:09:22.240 safer than a home that is closer to the ground, 0:09:22.280 --> 0:09:25.200 So that would also be critical. But also looking at 0:09:25.240 --> 0:09:27.920 government what the government has done to prevent a similar 0:09:27.960 --> 0:09:30.240 occurrence happening again. And you know there is a lot 0:09:30.240 --> 0:09:33.719 that government can do in terms of preventing bush fires, 0:09:33.760 --> 0:09:36.640 preventing flooding, and I think that would also be something 0:09:36.679 --> 0:09:40.040 I'd be looking pretty closely to see what's being done 0:09:40.040 --> 0:09:40.720 at that level. 0:09:41.720 --> 0:09:43.959 If I was a buyer of a property, is it 0:09:44.160 --> 0:09:46.320 how hard is it for me to figure out it's 0:09:46.679 --> 0:09:51.640 bush by prawn areas? That's obviously a very clear sort 0:09:51.640 --> 0:09:55.720 of marking of territory across Australia. But more generally, if 0:09:55.720 --> 0:09:59.680 I'm buying a property in a metropolitan or a suburban area, 0:09:59.720 --> 0:10:02.360 can I I find out easy enough it's the propensity 0:10:02.679 --> 0:10:04.440 for flooding or fire in that district. 0:10:04.840 --> 0:10:06.680 Yeah, look, I'd say so. I mean I haven't looked 0:10:06.679 --> 0:10:09.199 in every area across Australia, but you know, most local 0:10:09.240 --> 0:10:13.480 councils do have data on flood prone areas, when state 0:10:13.520 --> 0:10:17.680 government certainly focuses a lot on fire proofing and or 0:10:17.800 --> 0:10:21.600 you know their level of fire risk in in certain areas. 0:10:21.840 --> 0:10:23.680 And then then I think too, you know, there are 0:10:23.720 --> 0:10:27.040 some areas that we know are very flood prone and 0:10:28.080 --> 0:10:31.959 that you know, just understanding places like Brisbane River. We 0:10:32.040 --> 0:10:34.760 know it floods. It doesn't flood everywhere. There certain areas 0:10:34.760 --> 0:10:37.720 that it floods worse than others. But a lot of 0:10:37.720 --> 0:10:40.280 this as well is now well documented. So I think 0:10:40.559 --> 0:10:44.280 really understanding that risk. And also I think too, people's 0:10:44.320 --> 0:10:47.000 attitude to risk is always very different to you know, 0:10:47.200 --> 0:10:50.959 some one person may decide that even a very slight 0:10:51.080 --> 0:10:53.800 risk of bushfires isn't worth it, whereas another person made 0:10:53.840 --> 0:10:55.959 aside that you know, they really want to live in 0:10:56.320 --> 0:10:58.920 a bush fire prone area, and they're prepared to take 0:10:58.960 --> 0:10:59.480 that risk. 0:11:00.400 --> 0:11:02.680 That's a very valid point that your attitude to risk 0:11:02.760 --> 0:11:06.120 and that's obviously relevant to all investors all the time 0:11:06.160 --> 0:11:08.200 on all sorts of issues, and that whole thing of 0:11:08.240 --> 0:11:12.240 your risk profile are your risk disposition and it's something 0:11:12.240 --> 0:11:14.400 I suppose our listeners should keep in mind when they 0:11:14.400 --> 0:11:16.760 are assessing your property. And separately, you could be practical 0:11:16.800 --> 0:11:19.080 and literally look at things like flood maps for your district, 0:11:19.160 --> 0:11:21.640 et cetera, and be aware of the history of the 0:11:21.720 --> 0:11:24.560 area as well. Okay, terrific. And We've got lots of 0:11:24.679 --> 0:11:27.960 questions which I've wanted to have you involved in. Some 0:11:28.040 --> 0:11:31.080 of them I think are absolutely right off your alley, narrator. 0:11:31.160 --> 0:11:32.840 So we'll take a short break and we'll be back 0:11:32.880 --> 0:11:44.120 in a moment. Hello, Welcome back to The Australian's Money 0:11:44.120 --> 0:11:46.840 Positive podcast. I'm James Kirby, the wels editor at The 0:11:46.840 --> 0:11:50.600 Australian talking to Narrati Economy Chief economist Seth Raith White, 0:11:50.679 --> 0:11:54.240 regular on the show, always very good on all issues 0:11:54.520 --> 0:11:59.080 for US property buyers and investors. So, Narrada, I have 0:11:59.120 --> 0:12:02.599 a couple of questions here which I have which I 0:12:02.600 --> 0:12:05.720 have curated especially for you. The first one is from Jeff. 0:12:05.800 --> 0:12:09.000 I'd like to hear some expert advice, and of course 0:12:09.120 --> 0:12:13.000 we don't give advice, Jeff, we are simply giving information here. Nonetheless, 0:12:13.280 --> 0:12:17.160 he asks some property buyers that serve property investors advice 0:12:17.240 --> 0:12:21.840 where to buy based on the same data analytics. Is 0:12:22.160 --> 0:12:26.520 there risk that some markets will be distorted by all 0:12:26.640 --> 0:12:29.920 the investors being coached to look at analytics or to 0:12:30.000 --> 0:12:33.120 move in the same direction. This idea was first raised 0:12:33.400 --> 0:12:36.120 to me on another podcast that I suggest you listen 0:12:36.160 --> 0:12:39.280 to in order to properly understand my hastily written question. 0:12:39.880 --> 0:12:42.120 Unless it is a topic that others have been talking 0:12:42.160 --> 0:12:45.400 about outside my circuit of knowledge, I don't like the 0:12:45.440 --> 0:12:49.000 tone of the hosts. Don't worry about that, Jeff. Okay, 0:12:49.800 --> 0:12:51.719 really good point. I mean, this is your game, right, 0:12:51.760 --> 0:12:55.560 data analytics, property analytics. There was a time, I expect 0:12:55.640 --> 0:12:58.520 that the gulf between what you knew and what the 0:12:58.559 --> 0:13:03.280 average investor, every day property investor new, was enormous, right. 0:13:03.320 --> 0:13:04.680 I mean it used to be a big deal. To 0:13:04.760 --> 0:13:06.760 even find out how much the house that you were 0:13:06.760 --> 0:13:08.640 looking at sold. In the past, you had to go 0:13:08.720 --> 0:13:11.520 down to the titles office. I mean, it's inconceivable to 0:13:11.640 --> 0:13:13.640 someone who was in that market of what you can 0:13:13.720 --> 0:13:17.000 do today in two minutes, name a district in Australia 0:13:17.040 --> 0:13:18.719 and in two minutes I can find out a hell 0:13:18.760 --> 0:13:21.040 of a lot about it, or a single property on 0:13:21.080 --> 0:13:24.640 the internet for free. So what's the flips? Is there 0:13:24.640 --> 0:13:26.600 a flip side of that that that some people are 0:13:26.679 --> 0:13:30.800 running around heavily, perhaps in an amateur fashion, this sitting 0:13:31.280 --> 0:13:33.760 that analyx while you're doing it in a professional fashion. 0:13:33.800 --> 0:13:35.839 I thought you'd like this question. I kept especially for 0:13:35.880 --> 0:13:37.360 you as I say. 0:13:38.400 --> 0:13:43.800 Ah, okay, you know, I suppose even the best experts 0:13:43.840 --> 0:13:45.679 get things wrong. And you know we saw it in 0:13:46.160 --> 0:13:49.320 the most recent optic in house prices that when inter 0:13:49.400 --> 0:13:51.880 straight started to rise, we had a lot of people 0:13:51.880 --> 0:13:55.440 coming out and saying process with crash and I didn't. 0:13:55.559 --> 0:13:58.200 So I think, you know, it does show that even 0:13:58.360 --> 0:14:02.080 people with the best information and don't can often get 0:14:02.080 --> 0:14:05.000 it quite incorrect. The other point, right is is quite 0:14:05.000 --> 0:14:09.200 interesting though around a lot of advisors pushing people into 0:14:09.440 --> 0:14:12.880 certain locations around Australia. And I think this is where 0:14:12.920 --> 0:14:18.400 you do need to look closely at an investment from 0:14:18.440 --> 0:14:22.000 a personal level and look at it in terms of 0:14:22.920 --> 0:14:27.960 what is the rental yield why buying? Is it capital growth? 0:14:28.080 --> 0:14:31.920 Is it rental return? What's your time frame? Also the 0:14:32.040 --> 0:14:36.560 level of also how you would respond if what is 0:14:36.600 --> 0:14:39.280 being claimed doesn't take place. And I think that's particularly 0:14:39.360 --> 0:14:43.840 around capital growth. It is incredibly difficult to predict capital growth. 0:14:44.040 --> 0:14:48.640 So if that property is purchased at seven fifty thousand 0:14:48.840 --> 0:14:51.520 and it stays at seven fifty thousand for five years, 0:14:51.680 --> 0:14:54.440 is it still okay for you to buy at that price, 0:14:54.560 --> 0:14:59.119 because realistically, you know that would be I mean, realistically 0:14:59.160 --> 0:15:02.120 the worst case would be fall in pricing. But if 0:15:02.120 --> 0:15:04.640 someone is claiming the narra will see strong growth, and 0:15:04.800 --> 0:15:07.239 you know, I think I'd be taking that fairly carefully. 0:15:08.320 --> 0:15:09.880 Well, I just just a bit and ask you one thing. 0:15:09.920 --> 0:15:11.760 But it is true, though, isn't it. I mean, if 0:15:12.200 --> 0:15:14.840 a rising tide lifts or boots, and if someone says 0:15:14.920 --> 0:15:18.080 Perth is going to lift, Perth is going to lift, 0:15:18.160 --> 0:15:20.720 right in a way, you could buy the worst house 0:15:20.760 --> 0:15:24.360 on the street in Perth and it lifts. It will 0:15:24.480 --> 0:15:28.880 the data analytics to that extent in the on average 0:15:28.960 --> 0:15:29.800 will work for you. 0:15:31.000 --> 0:15:33.920 Yeah, I mean, I mean, but path does bust, you know, 0:15:33.960 --> 0:15:36.280 I think this is one of the one of the 0:15:36.280 --> 0:15:38.320 things that we have seen. Well, I mean, I think 0:15:38.320 --> 0:15:40.360 this is one of the Perth does come up a 0:15:40.400 --> 0:15:43.280 lot in this discussion because Perth we did see a 0:15:43.280 --> 0:15:48.080 lot of people buy in Perth following you know, finding 0:15:48.480 --> 0:15:51.920 following various mining booms and did become very unstark. Perth's 0:15:52.360 --> 0:15:55.280 property prices dropped for you know, ten fifteen years and 0:15:55.360 --> 0:15:58.800 so it was quite a disasters situation. Also, rents didn't 0:15:58.800 --> 0:16:01.880 grow and then vacancy rates were high. So you know, 0:16:01.880 --> 0:16:03.600 I think a lot of people were very cautious. So 0:16:03.640 --> 0:16:06.080 when we did see a lot of property advisors saying, 0:16:06.200 --> 0:16:08.640 go to Perth, it's a really good idea. You know, 0:16:08.680 --> 0:16:11.080 there was a lot of skepticism as to as to 0:16:11.080 --> 0:16:14.320 what was going to happen there. Personally interesting because it 0:16:14.440 --> 0:16:17.640 has risen. It's it's you know, the strongest price growth 0:16:17.640 --> 0:16:20.200 area over the past five years. So you know, people 0:16:20.200 --> 0:16:23.520 that did buy early stage did do very well. Rents 0:16:23.520 --> 0:16:26.400 have doubled, and you know, it's been a it's been 0:16:26.680 --> 0:16:29.720 a good outcome. But you know, I think, I think, 0:16:29.920 --> 0:16:34.320 I mean, you do need to look at these recommendations carefully. 0:16:34.480 --> 0:16:38.240 You do need to understand understand more broadly what's happening 0:16:38.240 --> 0:16:40.840 in that area. People in Brisbane have done very well 0:16:40.880 --> 0:16:42.600 a lot to do with population growth, So you know, 0:16:42.640 --> 0:16:44.880 I think there's there's certain things that you can look 0:16:44.920 --> 0:16:48.640 at in terms of, you know, why prices are moving 0:16:48.680 --> 0:16:51.400 or why they are expecting to move. But also you 0:16:51.440 --> 0:16:54.760 do need to look at areas like Perth quite carefully, 0:16:54.840 --> 0:16:58.240 like mining towns in Wa quite carefully, because as soon 0:16:58.240 --> 0:17:01.520 as you are in an area that's driven by one 0:17:02.000 --> 0:17:06.320 economics sector, which mining in this case, it does become 0:17:06.400 --> 0:17:09.240 much more susceptible to a boom bus cycle compared to 0:17:09.240 --> 0:17:12.880 someone like seeing in Melbourne, which less likely to say 0:17:12.920 --> 0:17:14.480 such wild swings in pricing. 0:17:15.440 --> 0:17:18.560 Yes, okay, I suppose he's it's always he's alluding to 0:17:18.600 --> 0:17:21.000 that whole issue of which comes across all investing, not 0:17:21.119 --> 0:17:23.840 just property, top down or bottom up. So the top 0:17:23.880 --> 0:17:27.320 down investor would say, buy a house in this town 0:17:27.440 --> 0:17:31.040 because the data suggests that this town is five years 0:17:31.040 --> 0:17:33.280 behind the rest of the country and so if the 0:17:33.320 --> 0:17:35.280 whole town is going to lift. But the bottom up 0:17:35.280 --> 0:17:39.080 investor would say, by this particular property in this town 0:17:39.119 --> 0:17:42.640 where all things aren't neutral, but this is an exceptional property, 0:17:42.640 --> 0:17:44.560 and that's the sort of bottom up approach, right, So 0:17:44.840 --> 0:17:47.199 he's I think, in a way, if I can paraphrase 0:17:47.640 --> 0:17:51.240 or play with Jeff's question, he's kind of saying top 0:17:51.280 --> 0:17:53.400 down investing in property was probably not a big thing 0:17:53.400 --> 0:17:56.280 once upon a time because people didn't have the range 0:17:56.280 --> 0:17:59.440 of the wherewithal to even know what the trends were, 0:17:59.640 --> 0:18:02.040 to dig deep in terms of data analytics, or to 0:18:02.119 --> 0:18:05.040 say or to cherry pick and say, look, I live 0:18:05.080 --> 0:18:07.000 in Brisbane, but I think I'll buy in Perth or 0:18:07.119 --> 0:18:11.439 vice versa. And that's a much stronger theme now for 0:18:11.680 --> 0:18:16.080 property investors. So it does change things. So the data 0:18:16.560 --> 0:18:18.480 just a final thing on Jef down the data, the 0:18:18.520 --> 0:18:22.240 amateur data an analyst. Is it a good thing or 0:18:22.280 --> 0:18:22.760 a bad thing? 0:18:23.400 --> 0:18:25.359 Look, I think it's a good thing. I mean talking 0:18:25.359 --> 0:18:28.679 about the top down, bottom up. I mean people historically 0:18:28.760 --> 0:18:31.560 have only bought in their local area because they understood 0:18:31.680 --> 0:18:34.680 property in their local area, and it did it did 0:18:34.800 --> 0:18:37.120 lead to you know, I mean, I think it has 0:18:37.280 --> 0:18:39.199 created quite a lot of wealth for people that have 0:18:39.359 --> 0:18:43.640 done that top down because people have looked more broadly 0:18:43.960 --> 0:18:47.879 and looked at places like Perth and regional areas and 0:18:48.000 --> 0:18:49.960 have put investment into these areas. 0:18:50.000 --> 0:18:52.560 So that's also helped. So all of those. 0:18:52.400 --> 0:18:55.600 Things have really changed, have really changed property investing? 0:18:56.840 --> 0:19:00.600 Okay, all right, very good, Daniel asks talking to some 0:19:00.640 --> 0:19:05.159 Rediset agents, they've noticed that social media, mostly Instagram, is 0:19:05.200 --> 0:19:07.800 proving a great way to promote and sell property. Do 0:19:07.840 --> 0:19:11.119 you think going forward property marketing will more heavily involve 0:19:11.160 --> 0:19:14.960 social media? Now we have to take this question. Do 0:19:15.119 --> 0:19:18.600 noticing that I happen to be employed by a gigantic 0:19:18.640 --> 0:19:21.600 media company which is not a social media company, and 0:19:21.640 --> 0:19:24.359 you're employed by White which is a real estate agent. 0:19:24.400 --> 0:19:27.200 So I suppose they they can go in any direction, 0:19:27.280 --> 0:19:30.360 but in terms of using social media, and they may 0:19:30.400 --> 0:19:33.520 well use it more than I know. What do you 0:19:33.800 --> 0:19:36.879 think of Daniel's question? Will it become will is it 0:19:36.920 --> 0:19:39.000 become important? And will it become more important? 0:19:40.160 --> 0:19:43.240 Well, it's it's definitely becoming more important in media. I mean, 0:19:43.520 --> 0:19:48.080 the media landscape has changed significantly with social media in 0:19:48.160 --> 0:19:51.800 terms of selling property. That's an agency using it, you know, 0:19:51.840 --> 0:19:54.560 we know that having that a lot of them do 0:19:54.680 --> 0:19:58.680 have very strong social media profiles, they do have followings. 0:19:59.280 --> 0:20:02.880 Luxury it is in particular, there is quite a quite 0:20:02.920 --> 0:20:05.640 a campaign. We've got some of our really top agents 0:20:05.720 --> 0:20:09.679 to pretty good videos that they put on on. 0:20:09.840 --> 0:20:14.200 Oh I've seen these videos. They're extraordinary, and they're extraordinary. Yeah, 0:20:14.280 --> 0:20:16.320 I mean I mean you say you're kidding, Oh, this 0:20:16.359 --> 0:20:18.200 is all for one property. I suppose if the houses 0:20:18.200 --> 0:20:21.600 were fourteen million, you can spend fifty grand on a video. Yeah. 0:20:21.640 --> 0:20:24.520 But what about social media in terms of your work 0:20:24.600 --> 0:20:28.040 and in your trying to understand the market to what 0:20:28.119 --> 0:20:30.520 extent do you tunnel through social media or is it 0:20:30.560 --> 0:20:31.480 relevant to your Yeah? 0:20:31.480 --> 0:20:34.400 Absolutely, I mean we get leads through social media. That's 0:20:34.960 --> 0:20:38.840 an important form of lead generation for us. So it's yeah, 0:20:38.840 --> 0:20:41.360 I mean it is absolutely being used, and it is 0:20:42.000 --> 0:20:44.480 It is something that can be quite experimental as well. 0:20:44.480 --> 0:20:46.879 And I think the nature of social media allows it 0:20:46.920 --> 0:20:50.480 to be quite experimental because you know, if something doesn't work, 0:20:50.480 --> 0:20:52.159 you can pull it off and pull it off the 0:20:52.400 --> 0:20:55.280 social media channel and so but you know, it's just 0:20:55.320 --> 0:20:58.960 a transition. I mean, people used to sell property through ads, 0:20:59.200 --> 0:21:03.800 they then move to portals. Social media gives another way 0:21:04.000 --> 0:21:06.359 of selling property. The other thing too, I mean if 0:21:06.400 --> 0:21:08.199 you have a look at new properties, in particular, if 0:21:08.200 --> 0:21:11.560 you look at apartment projects and house and land projects, 0:21:11.600 --> 0:21:15.000 I mean they sell heavily through social as well. That 0:21:15.040 --> 0:21:17.600 a lot of them will be trying to build communities 0:21:17.640 --> 0:21:21.760 and build their own audience, and by doing so, they 0:21:21.840 --> 0:21:26.399 can more directly target people that like their type of product. 0:21:26.440 --> 0:21:29.040 Maybe look at a really good apartment developer that they 0:21:29.080 --> 0:21:33.280 would have. They would be working heavily in building their 0:21:33.320 --> 0:21:36.640 own audiences to really have a greater influence on their 0:21:36.640 --> 0:21:37.960 buying behavior in the future. 0:21:39.160 --> 0:21:43.280 That's interesting. These these agents, these star agents that have 0:21:43.359 --> 0:21:46.560 a big social media following and sell luxury properties. Do 0:21:46.640 --> 0:21:50.280 you think a large element of that is pure voyeurism 0:21:50.480 --> 0:21:52.520 where people are just watching and looking at it, just 0:21:52.520 --> 0:21:55.920 that they look at television shows rather than de facto 0:21:56.520 --> 0:22:01.040 buyers of those luxury properties every buys. 0:22:01.320 --> 0:22:03.720 I mean, I mean, you're not if you're getting thirty 0:22:03.760 --> 0:22:07.160 thousand views of a video of a beautiful property, that's 0:22:07.200 --> 0:22:10.919 not thirty thousand buyers, obviously, But I think it also is. 0:22:11.000 --> 0:22:13.040 I mean people, you know, we all love looking at property, 0:22:13.040 --> 0:22:15.720