1 00:00:05,280 --> 00:00:07,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed the week Ahead. I'm Sean Elmer, 2 00:00:07,880 --> 00:00:09,920 Speaker 1: and as always at this time on a Monday morning, 3 00:00:09,960 --> 00:00:13,160 Speaker 1: I'm joined by economist Stephen Cooculis. You'll find him at 4 00:00:13,160 --> 00:00:15,880 Speaker 1: the cook dot com and on x using the handle 5 00:00:16,000 --> 00:00:18,120 Speaker 1: the Kirk Stephen, Good morning. 6 00:00:18,320 --> 00:00:19,160 Speaker 2: Good morning, Sean. 7 00:00:20,360 --> 00:00:22,600 Speaker 1: Well, it was kind of an interesting week last It's 8 00:00:22,640 --> 00:00:25,360 Speaker 1: always an interesting week in the economics world. But there 9 00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:30,040 Speaker 1: was plenty around trade, retail, trade, building approvals, house prices. 10 00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:33,280 Speaker 1: It does seem that, I mean, the economy is not 11 00:00:33,320 --> 00:00:35,479 Speaker 1: exactly rocketing along at the moment, Stephen. 12 00:00:35,960 --> 00:00:40,320 Speaker 2: It's not rocketing, but nor is it continuing to slow down. 13 00:00:40,360 --> 00:00:42,239 Speaker 2: I suppose the slow down that I think we saw 14 00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:44,839 Speaker 2: during the first half of twenty twenty four. We know 15 00:00:44,920 --> 00:00:47,720 Speaker 2: that the last two quarters, the March engine quarter GDP 16 00:00:47,800 --> 00:00:50,600 Speaker 2: numbers one point two. But as you alluded to, retail 17 00:00:50,640 --> 00:00:54,760 Speaker 2: sales in August, so the monthly nominal retail sales were 18 00:00:55,120 --> 00:00:58,320 Speaker 2: decent plus point seven. The Bureau of Statistics that it 19 00:00:58,320 --> 00:01:01,440 Speaker 2: could have been warm weather and early Father's Day. Plus 20 00:01:01,560 --> 00:01:04,200 Speaker 2: of course the income tax cuts which were paid during 21 00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:07,280 Speaker 2: the course of July that boosted that number. So a 22 00:01:07,440 --> 00:01:09,480 Speaker 2: decent result. Obviously, we want two months in a row 23 00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:12,080 Speaker 2: to be confirming that there's a there's a better trend there. 24 00:01:12,280 --> 00:01:15,320 Speaker 2: Building approvals ticked down a bit after sort of trending up. 25 00:01:15,319 --> 00:01:17,360 Speaker 2: But the yeah, the interesting thing about building approvals is 26 00:01:17,400 --> 00:01:21,360 Speaker 2: that they're starting to rise orbit from a horribly low base, 27 00:01:22,240 --> 00:01:25,440 Speaker 2: and that sort of indicator the house price series is 28 00:01:25,440 --> 00:01:28,200 Speaker 2: slowing down, which is probably good for affordability in housing construction, 29 00:01:28,319 --> 00:01:30,520 Speaker 2: these sorts of things. So you know, as we sit 30 00:01:30,560 --> 00:01:33,000 Speaker 2: here and now, it didn't really add or subtract a 31 00:01:33,000 --> 00:01:35,399 Speaker 2: lot to the monetary policy debate. You know, the Reserve 32 00:01:35,440 --> 00:01:38,480 Speaker 2: Bank doesn't meet until Melbourne Cup day, fifth of November 33 00:01:38,480 --> 00:01:40,680 Speaker 2: for those who aren't as clued into the races cover 34 00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:43,360 Speaker 2: as I am. Yeah, so it's still a month away 35 00:01:43,400 --> 00:01:47,400 Speaker 2: basically to the next RBA board meeting. But for these numbers, yeah, 36 00:01:47,440 --> 00:01:50,400 Speaker 2: they sort of would have been of a little bit 37 00:01:50,400 --> 00:01:52,600 Speaker 2: of comfort to the RBA, but not really. The ones 38 00:01:52,600 --> 00:01:54,960 Speaker 2: that make them are going to make them change their 39 00:01:55,000 --> 00:01:57,760 Speaker 2: mind on leaving Great Steady for a while now. 40 00:01:57,800 --> 00:01:59,320 Speaker 1: Talking to me on the IRBO, we have a few 41 00:01:59,320 --> 00:02:02,120 Speaker 1: speeches this week. What's interesting. We'll get the board minutes too, 42 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:06,960 Speaker 1: but they were before that monthly CPI figure, which was 43 00:02:07,000 --> 00:02:09,280 Speaker 1: probably a bit softer than some thought. What do you 44 00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:11,760 Speaker 1: think the Reserve Bank will say this week, because everyone 45 00:02:11,840 --> 00:02:15,400 Speaker 1: will be listening to hear some sort of language change 46 00:02:15,560 --> 00:02:17,799 Speaker 1: around interest rates. Do you think we're going to get it? 47 00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:18,880 Speaker 1: We might. 48 00:02:18,919 --> 00:02:20,880 Speaker 2: We've got the Deputy Governor, Andrew Howes and a couple 49 00:02:20,880 --> 00:02:23,560 Speaker 2: of the assistant governors giving talks on different parts of 50 00:02:23,600 --> 00:02:26,480 Speaker 2: the economy and if they want to send a message 51 00:02:26,520 --> 00:02:30,160 Speaker 2: they will. This is a great coordinated approach to just 52 00:02:30,240 --> 00:02:33,560 Speaker 2: softening up the markets or the general population about any 53 00:02:33,680 --> 00:02:36,120 Speaker 2: change in views that they had. And even though the minutes, 54 00:02:36,120 --> 00:02:39,520 Speaker 2: as you quite rightly point out, came before the monthly 55 00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:41,640 Speaker 2: inflation level was a bit lower than expected, so it 56 00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:44,720 Speaker 2: probably won't include that much information. But the speeches if 57 00:02:44,760 --> 00:02:47,040 Speaker 2: the RBA is now of the year, they're looking at 58 00:02:47,120 --> 00:02:50,320 Speaker 2: rate cuts around the world, they're seeing that slightly better 59 00:02:50,400 --> 00:02:53,679 Speaker 2: news on local inflation. They're seeing well volatility and commodity 60 00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:57,360 Speaker 2: prices because of geopolitical events, but generally tracking a little 61 00:02:57,400 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 2: bit lower rather than a little bit higher. They might 62 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:02,040 Speaker 2: I want to just say, look, we're not about to 63 00:03:02,040 --> 00:03:04,040 Speaker 2: cut racing. We're not going to cut rates tomorrow. But 64 00:03:04,160 --> 00:03:07,400 Speaker 2: that hawkishness, that raid hiking bias that we had for 65 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:09,800 Speaker 2: the last few months is probably well and truly gone. 66 00:03:10,040 --> 00:03:12,000 Speaker 2: That will probably come through in the minutes. As Michelle 67 00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:14,959 Speaker 2: Bullock spoke about in her press conference after the last 68 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:19,680 Speaker 2: Board meeting, and the fact that consumer sentiments still crooked 69 00:03:19,680 --> 00:03:22,520 Speaker 2: the global economies, Iffy, you know a lot of as 70 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:24,280 Speaker 2: I said, a lot of central banks of cutting interest 71 00:03:24,320 --> 00:03:27,240 Speaker 2: rates around the world. It might just be a chance 72 00:03:27,280 --> 00:03:31,639 Speaker 2: for them to just tweak market expectations a little more interesting. 73 00:03:31,880 --> 00:03:35,119 Speaker 1: We also get business confidence and conditions as well as 74 00:03:35,160 --> 00:03:36,760 Speaker 1: consumer confidence this week, Stephen. 75 00:03:36,960 --> 00:03:40,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, oh, look, I love these confidence surveys, as you know, Sean, 76 00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:42,880 Speaker 2: because they're up to date, like this is for the 77 00:03:42,880 --> 00:03:44,680 Speaker 2: These will be for the what are we the month 78 00:03:44,760 --> 00:03:48,240 Speaker 2: of September, So the surveys have been done literally in 79 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:50,640 Speaker 2: the last couple of weeks. So yeah, here we are 80 00:03:50,640 --> 00:03:54,400 Speaker 2: alying on June Corter GDP data. We have got July August, 81 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:57,120 Speaker 2: and this week we'll have September data for consumer and 82 00:03:57,160 --> 00:04:02,200 Speaker 2: business confidence. Both are pretty week. Consumer senterance has found 83 00:04:02,200 --> 00:04:04,360 Speaker 2: a bit of a flow. It's no longer deteriorating, but 84 00:04:04,480 --> 00:04:08,320 Speaker 2: it's at a low level. Whereas business confidence business conditions 85 00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:10,320 Speaker 2: have been tracking a little bit lower in line with 86 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:14,720 Speaker 2: the weakening economy over the last little while. And importantly, 87 00:04:14,920 --> 00:04:19,880 Speaker 2: I want to shout this from the rooftops. Their price indicators, 88 00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:25,720 Speaker 2: the expectations they have on selling prices, input prices, wages, 89 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:28,680 Speaker 2: which are all part of this inflation mix, will be 90 00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:31,359 Speaker 2: arguably more important than their activity indicators, because they've got 91 00:04:31,400 --> 00:04:34,880 Speaker 2: a fantastic track record at picking these turning points up 92 00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:38,360 Speaker 2: and down in the inflation momentum. So we'll be watching 93 00:04:38,360 --> 00:04:40,640 Speaker 2: those surveys. Even though they you might not get the 94 00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:43,440 Speaker 2: attention that they you should get in the media. A 95 00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:45,080 Speaker 2: lot of US economists will be watching them for any 96 00:04:45,120 --> 00:04:45,640 Speaker 2: clues there. 97 00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:47,160 Speaker 1: Stephen, enjoy your week. 98 00:04:47,480 --> 00:04:47,920 Speaker 2: Thank you. 99 00:04:48,279 --> 00:04:50,679 Speaker 1: That was economist Stephen kokulis better Nana as the COOKI 100 00:04:50,720 --> 00:04:52,880 Speaker 1: can find here at the cook dot com and follow 101 00:04:52,960 --> 00:04:55,320 Speaker 1: him on X using the handle the Cook. I'm Sean 102 00:04:55,360 --> 00:04:57,440 Speaker 1: Almer and this is Fear and Greed The week Ahead.