WEBVTT - Labor vs the Coalition: Which housing plan is worse?

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<v Speaker 1>So, Mike, I want to start with Peter Dutton's son, Harry.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, we're saving luck mad but it doesn't look

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<v Speaker 2>like we'll get there in the near future, but we'd

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<v Speaker 2>love that to change.

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<v Speaker 1>What did you think when you saw that press conference

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<v Speaker 1>where we had the opposition leader's son talking about his struggles.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I thought it was an effort to kind of

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<v Speaker 3>humanize Dutton. I guess. I mean Harry's twenty, right, he's

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<v Speaker 3>a second year apprentice, and so his inability to save

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<v Speaker 3>enough to get into a house. It's a common story

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<v Speaker 3>and millions of other would be homeowners might relate to it,

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<v Speaker 3>except in one regard, which is, of course, that Harry

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<v Speaker 3>Dutton's father is a very wealthy man due to his

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<v Speaker 3>buying and selling of real estate.

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<v Speaker 1>Mike Secam is a reporter for the Saturday Paper. He's

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<v Speaker 1>been watching closely as Peter Dutton has made the dream

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<v Speaker 1>of home ownership for young Australians central to his campaign.

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<v Speaker 3>But it seemed to me that he failed to anticipate

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<v Speaker 3>the obvious question when he trotted Harry up, you're doing

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<v Speaker 3>pretty well yourself.

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<v Speaker 1>Why won't you support him a bit and give him

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<v Speaker 1>a bit of help with getting his house.

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<v Speaker 2>I haven't finished the excellent points I was making. The

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<v Speaker 2>next point is to why people should vote liberally.

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<v Speaker 3>We so, having failed to answer quite a period of

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<v Speaker 3>time elapse better part of a day, and eventually, belatedly

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<v Speaker 3>on Tuesday, Dutton came out and conceded that he and

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<v Speaker 3>his wife would at some stage give Harry and Harry's

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<v Speaker 3>two siblings helped to buy a home.

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<v Speaker 2>And I think our households are no different to many

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<v Speaker 2>households where you want our kids to work hard to

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<v Speaker 2>save and will help them with a deposit at some stage.

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<v Speaker 3>Which is lucky for them because frankly, under the housing

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<v Speaker 3>policies that their father advocates, the cost of buying a

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<v Speaker 3>home is only going to increase. On that all the

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<v Speaker 3>expert opinion is just overwhelming.

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<v Speaker 1>But it's not just the Coalitions housing policy set to

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<v Speaker 1>drive up prices. Experts agree that Labour's will too, and

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<v Speaker 1>with the majority of Australians either owning their own home

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<v Speaker 1>or paying one off, it seems that maybe the point

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<v Speaker 1>schwarts Media. I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven am today.

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<v Speaker 1>National correspondent for the Saturday paper, Mike Sekham on what

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<v Speaker 1>the major parties are offering on housing and what it

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<v Speaker 1>means for the housing crisis. It's Wednesday, April twenty three,

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<v Speaker 1>so Mike, to begin with, can you just lay out

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<v Speaker 1>for me what Peter Dunne has said about housing in

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<v Speaker 1>this election campaign and what we know about his plans.

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<v Speaker 3>Dutton was very clear about this in his Budget reply

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<v Speaker 3>speech last month. He promised, and I'm quoting him, I

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<v Speaker 3>don't want young Australians locked out of the property market

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<v Speaker 3>or having to rely on the bank of Mum and dad.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't want young Australians locked out of the property

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<v Speaker 2>market or having to rely on the bank of mum

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<v Speaker 2>and dad. I want to see fewers Australians homeless and

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<v Speaker 2>more Australians in homes.

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<v Speaker 3>There are two aspects to the Coalition's policy, and when

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<v Speaker 3>I spoke to the veteran independent economist Saul Eslick, he

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<v Speaker 3>described it as a contender for the title of worst

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<v Speaker 3>public policy of the twenty first century. So that's how

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<v Speaker 3>bad he thought it was. The first part is called

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<v Speaker 3>the Super Home Biers Scheme, and this has been Coalition

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<v Speaker 3>policy for a while and it would allow first home

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<v Speaker 3>buyers access to up to forty percent of their superannuation

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<v Speaker 3>balance up to a maximum of fifty thousand dollars to

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<v Speaker 3>put towards a deposit. Leaving aside the impact that would

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<v Speaker 3>have by allowing young people to raid their super and

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<v Speaker 3>what the impact that would have on their retirement, the

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<v Speaker 3>measure would inevitably pump up prices, says Eslack, and if

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<v Speaker 3>I might quite him at some length, sixty years of

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<v Speaker 3>history shows, without any shadow of it out that anything

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<v Speaker 3>else that allows people to spend more on housing than

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<v Speaker 3>they otherwise would whether that's first home an a grants,

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<v Speaker 3>stamp duty concessions, mortgage guarantee schemes, shared equity schemes, lower

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<v Speaker 3>interest rates, easier credit conditions, or tax breaks for property investors.

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<v Speaker 3>Anything that allows people to spend more than they otherwise

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<v Speaker 3>would results in more expensive housing. So it just means

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<v Speaker 3>more money chasing less housing. Essentially, you know, you have

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<v Speaker 3>two sides to the housing equation. One is supply, one

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<v Speaker 3>is demand. All of these sorts of things pump up

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<v Speaker 3>demand and do nothing for supply.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, And for it to work at all, Mike, young

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<v Speaker 1>people would presumably have to actually have the super to

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<v Speaker 1>be able to draw down. So how realistic is that?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, You make a very good point, and I found

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<v Speaker 3>tax Office starter. It's a few years old. In twenty

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<v Speaker 3>twenty two, the median superannuation balance for a woman aged

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<v Speaker 3>thirty to thirty four, you know, peak home buying sort

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<v Speaker 3>of age group, was just thirty four thousand dollars, and

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<v Speaker 3>for men of the same age it was just a

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<v Speaker 3>shade under forty thousand dollars. Now, bearing in mind that

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<v Speaker 3>the Coalition policy would only allow them to withdraw forty

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<v Speaker 3>percent of that nest egg, that would you give a

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<v Speaker 3>woman thirteen thousand, seven hundred and thirty dollars eighty cents

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<v Speaker 3>and fifteen nine hundred and eighty dollars forty for.

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<v Speaker 1>Men, Well, that's not going to get you very far.

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<v Speaker 3>Not in not in today's housing market. You're quite right,

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<v Speaker 3>And of course that was across all people. When you

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<v Speaker 3>look at the data for people who are in rental accommodation,

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<v Speaker 3>a quarter of them had balances of less than six

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<v Speaker 3>thousand dollars, which means, you know, they would only be

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<v Speaker 3>able to pull two four hundred dollars out of their suitpit,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, which is essentially nothing in today's market. Perhaps

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<v Speaker 3>the only real redeeming feature to it I suppose is

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<v Speaker 3>that it wouldn't cost taxpayers a lot. This would just

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<v Speaker 3>allow people access to their own superannuation money. So that's

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<v Speaker 3>a big aspect of this plan, and it's quite different

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<v Speaker 3>from the second aspect of the Coalition's plan, which the

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<v Speaker 3>Opposition as estimated would cost taxpayers one point twenty five

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<v Speaker 3>billion over the first four years of its operation. And

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<v Speaker 3>I've seen a number of commentators say it will probably

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<v Speaker 3>cost a lot more than.

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<v Speaker 1>That, right okay, And this is the scheme like where

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<v Speaker 1>you can claim tax deductions from up to six hundred

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<v Speaker 1>and fifty thousand dollars dollars of your mortgage. So tell

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<v Speaker 1>me more about exactly how that would work and what

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<v Speaker 1>economists are saying about its impact.

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<v Speaker 3>Right okay, Well, this is the one that came pretty

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<v Speaker 3>much out of a clear blue sky at Dutton's policy launch.

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<v Speaker 2>A Coalition government will allow you to deduct interest payments

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<v Speaker 2>on the first six hundred and fifty thousand dollars of

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<v Speaker 2>a mortgage against your taxable income. We will allow these

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<v Speaker 2>deductions for five years, provided you continue to live in

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<v Speaker 2>that home for that period. This policy will be available

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<v Speaker 2>to individuals with the taxable income of one hundred and

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<v Speaker 2>seventy five thousand dollars or less, enjoyed applicants earning a

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<v Speaker 2>combined income of two hundred and fifty thousand dollars or less.

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<v Speaker 3>Probably the most salient factor here is that this would

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<v Speaker 3>also disproportionately benefit people who are doing better. Going back

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<v Speaker 3>to Solsli, the way he sees this is one aspect

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<v Speaker 3>of the Coalition's policy. Super for housing allows people to

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<v Speaker 3>put down bigger deposits, which in turn allows them to

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<v Speaker 3>borrow more and pumps up the price of houses. The

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<v Speaker 3>interest deductibility on mortgages allows people to borrow a lot

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<v Speaker 3>more because it's the equivalent of reduction in interest rates

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<v Speaker 3>of roughly one third. So what's likely to happen is

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<v Speaker 3>that the beneficiaries of this scheme will just bid up

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<v Speaker 3>prices and make housing more expensive for everyone else. It's

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<v Speaker 3>hard to recall another policy that has been so comprehensively

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<v Speaker 3>bagged as the first home by a mortgage deductibility scheme.

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<v Speaker 3>There were hit pieces all over the place about this,

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<v Speaker 3>you know. One professor of economics called it frankly terrible

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<v Speaker 3>tax policy. Another said that it was incredibly administratively burdensome,

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<v Speaker 3>and if you wanted to just give people first home

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<v Speaker 3>bio grants. Then just give them first home bio grants.

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<v Speaker 3>Brendan Coates from the Gratin Institute said he was frankly

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<v Speaker 3>mystified about what compelled the Coalition to put this forward

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<v Speaker 3>when no quoting him, no serious housing policy expert had

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<v Speaker 3>called for it. He called it nuts.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up after the break is Labour's plan nuts as well,

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<v Speaker 1>so Mike. On the same weekend that the Coalition announced

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<v Speaker 1>this doublem housing policy, Labor also announced their own. So

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<v Speaker 1>tell me what is on offer from them.

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<v Speaker 3>What Anthony Albanez you promised at the campaign launch was

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<v Speaker 3>that if Labor were re elected, the government would allow

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<v Speaker 3>all first home buyers, regardless of their income, to buy

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<v Speaker 3>a home on just five percent deposit.

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<v Speaker 4>Our five percent deposit plan will be opening to every

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<v Speaker 4>Australian looking to buy their first home. It will be

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<v Speaker 4>available for homes valued all the way up to the

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<v Speaker 4>average price in every city and region, and you won't

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<v Speaker 4>have to pay a single dollar in mortgage insurance. Our

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<v Speaker 4>government will cover it.

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<v Speaker 3>But the view is that just guaranteeing a lower deposit

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<v Speaker 3>would encourage what one called imprudent borrowing. The fact that

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<v Speaker 3>they know that the government will be covering them and

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<v Speaker 3>they left, but five percent buyers will probably once again

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<v Speaker 3>bid up the prices of housing. When comparing the respective

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<v Speaker 3>policies from the major party, Saulslake told me, quote, while

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<v Speaker 3>I don't like either of them, Labour's policy is less.

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<v Speaker 1>Worse, right, well, less worse is hardly an endorsement Mike

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<v Speaker 1>in the debate, though, last week Anthony Abernezi He was

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<v Speaker 1>arguing that Labor does have a policy to deal with supply.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's not just about helping people get into the market,

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<v Speaker 1>but it's also about broadening what is actually available. So

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<v Speaker 1>tell me a bit about that plan to boost housing stock.

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<v Speaker 3>Actually, both parties have plans that they say will increase supply,

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<v Speaker 3>but let's start with Labours because it's the bigger. Labour's

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<v Speaker 3>latest promise was to invest ten billion dollars in the

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<v Speaker 3>form of grants and zero interest loans in partnership with

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<v Speaker 3>state developers and the housing industry, and it claims that

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<v Speaker 3>by supplying these funds that will see up to one

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<v Speaker 3>hundred thousand new homes built, and those homes would be

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<v Speaker 3>reserved solely for first home buyers. Labor, of course has

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<v Speaker 3>a whole suite of other housing policies.

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<v Speaker 4>You know.

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<v Speaker 3>There's the Help to Buy a scheme under which the

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<v Speaker 3>government would take an equity stake of forty percent in

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<v Speaker 3>first home purchases. It has a Build to Rent scheme

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<v Speaker 3>which offers tax incentives to developers to provide affordable units.

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<v Speaker 3>And it's ten billion dollar Housing Australian Future Fund, which

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<v Speaker 3>aims to build some thirty thousand social and affordable homes.

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<v Speaker 3>On the Coalition side, the big new promise was a

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<v Speaker 3>five billion dollar investment to go to local government to

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<v Speaker 3>help with the supply of infrastructure like water and surge

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<v Speaker 3>and roads and so on for new housing developments, which

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<v Speaker 3>it claims would help accelerate was the word they used,

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<v Speaker 3>the development of five hundred thousand homes. So the point

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<v Speaker 3>here is that both parties do have supply side measures

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<v Speaker 3>as well as things that pump up demand. But what's

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<v Speaker 3>really worth noting here is that neither of the major

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<v Speaker 3>parties is talking about reforming aspects of the tax system

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<v Speaker 3>that have long been identified as contributing to the housing crisis,

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<v Speaker 3>such as negative gearing and the overly generous discount on

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<v Speaker 3>capital gains tax for housing investors and stamp duties.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I mean, as far as the major parties are concerned,

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<v Speaker 1>that conversation seems to be definitively over for the time being.

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<v Speaker 1>But what about the cross betch what do they have

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<v Speaker 1>to say about that?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, this I think is really interesting. As the act

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<v Speaker 3>Independent Senator David Percock told the ABC a week or

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<v Speaker 3>so back, what the community, he said, was crying out

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<v Speaker 3>for was a long term vision.

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<v Speaker 5>We want to plan for this. We want to tackle

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<v Speaker 5>the things that have been in the too hard basket

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<v Speaker 5>for too long. When it comes to our tax system.

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<v Speaker 3>He itemized them. He said, capital gains tax discounts, negative gearing,

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<v Speaker 3>stamp duty. They were all things that quote, we should

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<v Speaker 3>be dealing with, he said.

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<v Speaker 5>And one of the ones that actually makes a lot

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<v Speaker 5>of sense, I think, given the politics and given the

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<v Speaker 5>need to start to turn the ship around, is to

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<v Speaker 5>grandfather existing arrangements to then cap going forward negative gearing

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<v Speaker 5>to one investment property seventy percent. People only have one

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<v Speaker 5>investment property. That seems pretty fair. And then to reduce

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<v Speaker 5>the capital gains tax discount to twenty five percent for

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<v Speaker 5>new bills for new supply.

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<v Speaker 3>Likewise, the Greens would limit negative gearing to one property

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<v Speaker 3>and grandfather the capital gains tax. Tasmania's Jackie Lamby would

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<v Speaker 3>be a little more generous to landlords. She would allow

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<v Speaker 3>maybe two or three negatively geared properties. And Allegraspender, who

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<v Speaker 3>took the Blue ribbon seat of Wentworth from the Liberals

0:12:30.640 --> 0:12:33.600
<v Speaker 3>at the last election, has actually produced possibly the most

0:12:33.640 --> 0:12:35.840
<v Speaker 3>comprehensive analysis of what needs to change.

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<v Speaker 6>We need to put tax reform on the table. Just

0:12:38.160 --> 0:12:40.840
<v Speaker 6>look at stamp duty New South Wales. Trufetory says that

0:12:40.840 --> 0:12:43.480
<v Speaker 6>we could increase home ownership by six point six percent

0:12:43.679 --> 0:12:46.400
<v Speaker 6>in New South Wales if we replace stamp duty with

0:12:46.520 --> 0:12:46.960
<v Speaker 6>land tax.

0:12:47.120 --> 0:12:50.160
<v Speaker 3>Stamp duty is charged by the state and the general

0:12:50.160 --> 0:12:52.760
<v Speaker 3>criticism of stamp duty is that it imposes a big

0:12:52.800 --> 0:12:56.480
<v Speaker 3>transaction cost and that slows down the turnover of housing.

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<v Speaker 3>So the idea is that it should be replaced with

0:12:59.360 --> 0:13:02.160
<v Speaker 3>a land tax, which would remove the cost of buying

0:13:02.160 --> 0:13:04.559
<v Speaker 3>a house, but replace it with a long term tax

0:13:04.600 --> 0:13:07.520
<v Speaker 3>on actually living in that house. And so the theory

0:13:07.600 --> 0:13:09.600
<v Speaker 3>is that if that were done, you know, more of

0:13:09.600 --> 0:13:12.240
<v Speaker 3>those empty nesters who are living in big houses once

0:13:12.280 --> 0:13:14.920
<v Speaker 3>their kids have flown, would be encouraged to sell up

0:13:14.920 --> 0:13:17.120
<v Speaker 3>and buy something more suitable and there would be a

0:13:17.160 --> 0:13:20.040
<v Speaker 3>round robin of effects and as a result, more people

0:13:20.080 --> 0:13:21.720
<v Speaker 3>would be able to buy housing.

0:13:23.240 --> 0:13:25.840
<v Speaker 1>And so, Mike, you have been paying very close attention

0:13:26.000 --> 0:13:28.720
<v Speaker 1>to the housing debate in Australia for a long time now.

0:13:28.800 --> 0:13:31.600
<v Speaker 1>You and I have had many conversations about it. What

0:13:31.840 --> 0:13:35.760
<v Speaker 1>is your view now on why it is that neither

0:13:35.960 --> 0:13:39.199
<v Speaker 1>major party really seems up to the task on this

0:13:40.160 --> 0:13:43.800
<v Speaker 1>particular issue, an issue that really I think almost every

0:13:44.000 --> 0:13:46.240
<v Speaker 1>voter has a stake in at this point.

0:13:46.640 --> 0:13:49.920
<v Speaker 3>Well, that's absolutely right. And perhaps the first point here

0:13:50.000 --> 0:13:53.040
<v Speaker 3>is that until a few decades ago, home prices increased

0:13:53.080 --> 0:13:55.480
<v Speaker 3>at roughly the same rate as wages, right, and then

0:13:55.520 --> 0:13:58.400
<v Speaker 3>they decoupled and house prices took off. Part of the

0:13:58.440 --> 0:14:01.200
<v Speaker 3>reason for that was various governments, state and federal level,

0:14:01.320 --> 0:14:03.560
<v Speaker 3>pursued policies that pumped up demand. You know. There were

0:14:03.640 --> 0:14:08.480
<v Speaker 3>various generous first home owner grant schemes, both state and

0:14:08.520 --> 0:14:10.760
<v Speaker 3>federal that put more money in the pockets of home

0:14:10.760 --> 0:14:13.120
<v Speaker 3>buyers so they could bit against other home buyers. And

0:14:13.160 --> 0:14:15.280
<v Speaker 3>there were also tax breaks you know that made housing

0:14:15.320 --> 0:14:18.400
<v Speaker 3>attractive to investors. You know, it's notable. I think that

0:14:18.440 --> 0:14:22.080
<v Speaker 3>the real escalation in home prices coincided with a decision

0:14:22.080 --> 0:14:24.640
<v Speaker 3>by the Howard government way back in nineteen ninety nine

0:14:25.120 --> 0:14:28.640
<v Speaker 3>to have the capital gains tax, and John Howard famously

0:14:28.720 --> 0:14:31.800
<v Speaker 3>celebrated the fact that that led a rocket house prices

0:14:32.040 --> 0:14:34.280
<v Speaker 3>and said that no one had ever complained to him

0:14:34.320 --> 0:14:36.960
<v Speaker 3>that the value of their home was going up. So

0:14:37.440 --> 0:14:41.720
<v Speaker 3>while these dumb policies over decades have seen a large

0:14:41.760 --> 0:14:44.080
<v Speaker 3>and growing number of people struggling to get into the

0:14:44.120 --> 0:14:47.040
<v Speaker 3>housing market or locked out of the housing market, it's

0:14:47.040 --> 0:14:49.160
<v Speaker 3>still the fact that an even larger group of people

0:14:49.440 --> 0:14:52.680
<v Speaker 3>own or are paying off a house. And so you know,

0:14:52.720 --> 0:14:56.400
<v Speaker 3>the parties have been pandering to that majority, and that majority,

0:14:56.480 --> 0:14:59.520
<v Speaker 3>naturally enough, wants to see the value of their asset increase.

0:15:02.120 --> 0:15:04.440
<v Speaker 1>Mike, thank you so much for your time.

0:15:05.000 --> 0:15:05.440
<v Speaker 3>Thank you.

0:15:17.200 --> 0:15:19.560
<v Speaker 1>Also in the news today, both the Prime Minister and

0:15:19.600 --> 0:15:22.800
<v Speaker 1>opposition leader have taken time out of their election campaign

0:15:23.120 --> 0:15:26.800
<v Speaker 1>to mark the Pope's passing at age eighty eight. Prime

0:15:26.800 --> 0:15:30.440
<v Speaker 1>Minister Albanezi attended an early morning mass in Melbourne yesterday

0:15:30.760 --> 0:15:32.680
<v Speaker 1>where he told the press the Pope will quote be

0:15:32.800 --> 0:15:35.400
<v Speaker 1>recorded in history as one of the most significant of

0:15:35.440 --> 0:15:39.280
<v Speaker 1>all the Holy Fathers. Meanwhile, Peter Dutton paid his respects

0:15:39.280 --> 0:15:41.880
<v Speaker 1>at a mass held at Saint Mary's Cathedral in Sydney.

0:15:42.240 --> 0:15:45.360
<v Speaker 1>It's estimated that around twenty percent of the Australian population

0:15:45.840 --> 0:15:49.560
<v Speaker 1>just over five million people a Catholic, and more than

0:15:49.560 --> 0:15:52.600
<v Speaker 1>one hundred leaders from universities and colleges across the United

0:15:52.640 --> 0:15:57.400
<v Speaker 1>States have denounced the Trump administration's unprecedented government overreach and

0:15:57.520 --> 0:16:02.520
<v Speaker 1>political interference within higher education. The statement published yesterday comes

0:16:02.560 --> 0:16:06.239
<v Speaker 1>after a campaign by the Trump administration against many universities,

0:16:06.520 --> 0:16:10.240
<v Speaker 1>including Harvard. Harvard University is the first school to sue

0:16:10.240 --> 0:16:13.440
<v Speaker 1>the federal government after President Trump threatened to freeze two

0:16:13.520 --> 0:16:16.840
<v Speaker 1>point three billion dollars in university funding over its handling

0:16:17.040 --> 0:16:21.240
<v Speaker 1>of anti Semitism on campus. Harvard has previously rejected a

0:16:21.240 --> 0:16:24.880
<v Speaker 1>list of demands by the Trump administration, labeling them overreach.

0:16:25.520 --> 0:16:28.240
<v Speaker 1>I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven am. See tomorrow.