1
00:00:06,280 --> 00:00:08,840
Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed, the labor market bounces, but

2
00:00:08,920 --> 00:00:11,879
Speaker 1: not enough to stop a rate cut. In May twenty one,

3
00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,200
Speaker 1: big investors demand to say on James Hardy's Shift to

4
00:00:15,280 --> 00:00:18,520
Speaker 1: Wall Street and we explore the true stories of Easter.

5
00:00:18,800 --> 00:00:21,640
Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed's Good Friday edition. It is

6
00:00:21,760 --> 00:00:25,560
Speaker 1: the eighteenth of April. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning,

7
00:00:25,640 --> 00:00:26,439
Speaker 1: Sean Aylmer.

8
00:00:26,640 --> 00:00:28,800
Speaker 2: Good morning Michael, Sean.

9
00:00:28,880 --> 00:00:32,479
Speaker 1: Given everyone is taking public holiday today, the show is

10
00:00:32,560 --> 00:00:36,640
Speaker 1: much shorter, significantly shorter than normal, it is still packed

11
00:00:36,640 --> 00:00:39,520
Speaker 1: with everything that you need to know, though for Easter lunch.

12
00:00:40,120 --> 00:00:43,600
Speaker 1: And you know what, actually, Sean, because this is a

13
00:00:43,640 --> 00:00:46,680
Speaker 1: long weekend, and because people have time on their hands,

14
00:00:47,240 --> 00:00:50,680
Speaker 1: you know what, everybody should spend a little bit of

15
00:00:50,720 --> 00:00:52,000
Speaker 1: time this weekend doing a.

16
00:00:51,960 --> 00:00:55,760
Speaker 2: Minute and a half probably signing up to the Fear

17
00:00:55,760 --> 00:01:00,360
Speaker 2: and Greed newsletter at frearngreed dot com dot au and

18
00:01:00,400 --> 00:01:05,520
Speaker 2: then in your inbox about five fifty every working day

19
00:01:06,120 --> 00:01:08,280
Speaker 2: there will be a newsletter everything you need to know

20
00:01:08,480 --> 00:01:11,800
Speaker 2: to get ahead of your colleagues at work, to get

21
00:01:11,840 --> 00:01:13,240
Speaker 2: ahead just generally in life.

22
00:01:13,280 --> 00:01:17,319
Speaker 1: Michael, I love that you actually emphasize every working day,

23
00:01:17,600 --> 00:01:20,200
Speaker 1: just because of what I know. That's not what if

24
00:01:20,240 --> 00:01:22,240
Speaker 1: you're looking for one, there was not one this morning,

25
00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:25,800
Speaker 1: but there will be. We'll be back next week. But yes,

26
00:01:25,880 --> 00:01:27,400
Speaker 1: head along to Fear and Green dot com. You will

27
00:01:27,400 --> 00:01:29,040
Speaker 1: put a link in the show notes as well, Sean.

28
00:01:29,120 --> 00:01:33,679
Speaker 1: The main story this morning, the labor market rebounded strongly

29
00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:36,600
Speaker 1: in March, but economists still believes the Reserve Bank will

30
00:01:36,640 --> 00:01:39,520
Speaker 1: cut interest rates when it meets in May, which is

31
00:01:39,640 --> 00:01:41,360
Speaker 1: of course after the election.

32
00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:44,880
Speaker 2: Indeed, thirty two thousand people found work, which was slightly

33
00:01:45,040 --> 00:01:49,120
Speaker 2: fewer than expected, and the unemployment rate stayed at four

34
00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:52,040
Speaker 2: point one percent. We've been at that four percent, give

35
00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:55,480
Speaker 2: or take, for about eighteen months now. It followed a

36
00:01:55,680 --> 00:01:59,720
Speaker 2: surprising drop off fifty three thousand jobs in the previous

37
00:01:59,800 --> 00:02:03,040
Speaker 2: month month. What it suggests the trend is your friend, Michael.

38
00:02:03,920 --> 00:02:07,400
Speaker 2: It does suggest that the labor market is softening a

39
00:02:07,440 --> 00:02:09,680
Speaker 2: bit now. The best way to judge what professional investors

40
00:02:09,840 --> 00:02:13,720
Speaker 2: think about the labor force data yesterday is to check

41
00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:16,720
Speaker 2: in on what bond market's saying about interest rates. They've

42
00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:19,680
Speaker 2: priced in a twenty five basis point cut next month.

43
00:02:19,960 --> 00:02:21,880
Speaker 2: In fact, they reckon there's about a twenty five percent

44
00:02:22,000 --> 00:02:25,720
Speaker 2: chance of a fifty basis point cut next month now

45
00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:28,280
Speaker 2: earlier this week, minutes from Reserve Bank Board meeting of

46
00:02:28,320 --> 00:02:31,160
Speaker 2: two weeks ago said the central Bank is focused on inflation,

47
00:02:31,720 --> 00:02:35,120
Speaker 2: the labor market, and international events. Well, we've got labor

48
00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:38,960
Speaker 2: market information yesterday. We know what's going on internationally. In

49
00:02:39,000 --> 00:02:42,120
Speaker 2: about ten days or so, we'll find out more about inflation.

50
00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:48,000
Speaker 2: Only a surprisingly high inflation figure is likely to stop

51
00:02:48,080 --> 00:02:50,639
Speaker 2: a rate cut, according to economists.

52
00:02:50,960 --> 00:02:55,400
Speaker 1: Sean, it's worth a quick mention now of the interview

53
00:02:55,440 --> 00:02:56,920
Speaker 1: that you have coming up after the show. It might

54
00:02:56,960 --> 00:02:59,000
Speaker 1: be a shorter show and it might be kind of

55
00:02:59,240 --> 00:03:01,280
Speaker 1: a public holiday, but we've still got a great interview.

56
00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:04,239
Speaker 1: Katrina McPhee from Aware super is your guest today.

57
00:03:04,280 --> 00:03:07,160
Speaker 2: So I talked to kat about Aware Surper's State of

58
00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:11,480
Speaker 2: Retirement report, and it's all about how it means trends

59
00:03:11,520 --> 00:03:15,000
Speaker 2: in retirement in short, but how the cost of living

60
00:03:15,040 --> 00:03:18,880
Speaker 2: crisis is impacting people who are saving for retirement the furrow.

61
00:03:19,400 --> 00:03:23,080
Speaker 2: It's called fear of running out furrow. There's a real

62
00:03:23,200 --> 00:03:28,000
Speaker 2: thing particularly for people as a near retirement, talking about

63
00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:31,040
Speaker 2: when people are retiring, how gen X is actually an

64
00:03:31,080 --> 00:03:35,280
Speaker 2: anxious generation around retirement, how people when they are retired

65
00:03:35,280 --> 00:03:38,360
Speaker 2: so the baby boomers, they actually need more information about

66
00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:40,360
Speaker 2: what they can do with their money. It's a fantastic

67
00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:41,360
Speaker 2: chat with Katrina.

68
00:03:41,920 --> 00:03:42,960
Speaker 1: Are you gen X?

69
00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:44,480
Speaker 2: I'm gen X. Yes.

70
00:03:44,920 --> 00:03:47,520
Speaker 1: Would you describe yourself as anxious?

71
00:03:47,880 --> 00:03:51,200
Speaker 2: Yes? Absolutely. When I'm working with you, you make me anxious.

72
00:03:51,720 --> 00:03:53,280
Speaker 1: I know I have that effect on people.

73
00:03:53,760 --> 00:03:56,000
Speaker 2: I don't know. Why then come out next?

74
00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:59,480
Speaker 1: All right, local markets, that's fairly predictable. What's going on

75
00:03:59,520 --> 00:04:01,520
Speaker 1: in local because how did things finish up yesterday?

76
00:04:01,720 --> 00:04:04,480
Speaker 2: All about gold and gold and gold. Now, because I'm

77
00:04:04,560 --> 00:04:07,200
Speaker 2: gen X. I know a guy called Norman May who

78
00:04:07,280 --> 00:04:11,760
Speaker 2: was an ABC commentator and in the Olympic Games early eighties,

79
00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:15,000
Speaker 2: I don't know, he was famous for going gold, gold, gold,

80
00:04:15,560 --> 00:04:19,159
Speaker 2: and someone was swimming and someone I don't even remember

81
00:04:19,160 --> 00:04:20,960
Speaker 2: who won the goal. I just remember Norman May going

82
00:04:21,000 --> 00:04:25,440
Speaker 2: gold gold goal. Anyway, the index itself was pretty flat yesterday,

83
00:04:25,680 --> 00:04:29,240
Speaker 2: but gold stocks continue to do well. That's because people

84
00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:33,279
Speaker 2: like them. The sae Haven status is all important at

85
00:04:33,279 --> 00:04:36,000
Speaker 2: the moment. Gold hit a new high yesterday. Energy stocks

86
00:04:36,040 --> 00:04:38,039
Speaker 2: also did well on the back of slightly higher oil

87
00:04:38,080 --> 00:04:41,480
Speaker 2: prices for the day. For the day ahead of the

88
00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:45,320
Speaker 2: easter break, there's a bunch of corporate news around. Probably

89
00:04:45,400 --> 00:04:48,040
Speaker 2: the biggest was the BHP announcement that it shipped weaker

90
00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:50,919
Speaker 2: than expected volumes vine all over the past three months now,

91
00:04:50,960 --> 00:04:52,800
Speaker 2: and that was in part due to weather. But Boss

92
00:04:52,839 --> 00:04:55,000
Speaker 2: Mike Henry came out and said China's ability to ramp

93
00:04:55,040 --> 00:04:59,880
Speaker 2: up domestic consumption will determine whether the Trump's administration's TARA

94
00:05:00,360 --> 00:05:05,600
Speaker 2: will create a global economic downturn. What he's saying, people

95
00:05:05,640 --> 00:05:10,920
Speaker 2: are hoping that Beijing will stimulate consumption in China. In fact,

96
00:05:10,920 --> 00:05:13,480
Speaker 2: we've been waiting for it for weeks now. It hasn't

97
00:05:13,520 --> 00:05:16,440
Speaker 2: really happened, but that could be the turning point about

98
00:05:16,440 --> 00:05:18,120
Speaker 2: a global recession or not.

99
00:05:18,720 --> 00:05:24,160
Speaker 1: Okay, back home, then, Sean Transurban's newest Sydney toll road,

100
00:05:24,200 --> 00:05:27,840
Speaker 1: West Connects, is becoming more popular with drivers, with average

101
00:05:27,960 --> 00:05:30,719
Speaker 1: daily traffic jumping more than ten percent in the March

102
00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:33,000
Speaker 1: quarter compared with a year earlier.

103
00:05:33,200 --> 00:05:35,280
Speaker 2: So motorists in that city can use West Connects to

104
00:05:35,320 --> 00:05:38,240
Speaker 2: get to the airport after a new connecting free road,

105
00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:42,240
Speaker 2: the Sydney Gateway, opened in September. The bad news, at

106
00:05:42,279 --> 00:05:45,440
Speaker 2: least for Transurban shareholders, is that the surge of vehicles

107
00:05:45,440 --> 00:05:48,799
Speaker 2: on West Connects has reduced a number of drivers using

108
00:05:48,839 --> 00:05:51,240
Speaker 2: some of the other companies roads, like the Crossity Tunnel

109
00:05:51,240 --> 00:05:55,279
Speaker 2: and the Eastern Distributor. Overall traffic numbers increased in Sydney

110
00:05:55,360 --> 00:05:58,279
Speaker 2: and in Melbourne. They dropped slightly in Brisbane, with Transurban

111
00:05:58,279 --> 00:06:02,000
Speaker 2: blaming the impact of cyclone Alfred Transurban share price has

112
00:06:02,080 --> 00:06:05,400
Speaker 2: risen sharply in recent weeks amid all the tariff turmoil.

113
00:06:05,760 --> 00:06:08,560
Speaker 2: It's just, you know, it's a steady stock infrastructure. We

114
00:06:08,680 --> 00:06:11,919
Speaker 2: like those of the steady stocks providing return. It actually

115
00:06:11,960 --> 00:06:13,600
Speaker 2: tumbled at the beginning of the year, so it's back

116
00:06:13,640 --> 00:06:15,680
Speaker 2: to about where it started the year now.

117
00:06:15,720 --> 00:06:17,039
Speaker 1: I mentioned this one at the top of the show.

118
00:06:17,080 --> 00:06:20,760
Speaker 1: Sewan twenty one of the country's biggest investors are demanding

119
00:06:20,800 --> 00:06:23,880
Speaker 1: that the AOSEX allow local shareholders to say on whether

120
00:06:23,960 --> 00:06:26,919
Speaker 1: James Hardy can move its primary share market listing to

121
00:06:26,960 --> 00:06:31,320
Speaker 1: the United States. As the fury grows over the building

122
00:06:31,360 --> 00:06:36,880
Speaker 1: materials giants fourteen billion dollar merger with American group AzaC

123
00:06:37,640 --> 00:06:38,160
Speaker 1: and it led it.

124
00:06:38,120 --> 00:06:41,359
Speaker 2: To the ASEX Chair David Clark and chief executive Helen

125
00:06:41,400 --> 00:06:44,320
Speaker 2: off Tause. The group of investors who control more than

126
00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:47,479
Speaker 2: a trillion dollars in capital have also asked the Market

127
00:06:47,480 --> 00:06:50,520
Speaker 2: Operator to review its listing rules that allow companies to

128
00:06:50,520 --> 00:06:54,560
Speaker 2: issue large numbers of shares for takeovers without a shareholder vote.

129
00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:57,599
Speaker 2: According to report in the AFR, Now it does seem

130
00:06:58,520 --> 00:07:02,000
Speaker 2: it doesn't make intuity sense that you don't get a

131
00:07:02,000 --> 00:07:04,800
Speaker 2: shareholder vote when the company's issuing a large number of shares.

132
00:07:04,839 --> 00:07:07,560
Speaker 2: That's exactly what James Hardy is doing. It also wants

133
00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:10,840
Speaker 2: to make its primary listing on Wall Street. Local shareholders

134
00:07:10,880 --> 00:07:13,560
Speaker 2: don't get to vote on that. A quote from the letter,

135
00:07:13,640 --> 00:07:17,520
Speaker 2: these issues create investment risk for shareholders invested in ASX

136
00:07:17,600 --> 00:07:20,640
Speaker 2: listed companies generally, and we would encourage the AX to

137
00:07:20,640 --> 00:07:23,160
Speaker 2: have proper regard to the rights of long standing investors

138
00:07:23,160 --> 00:07:27,600
Speaker 2: in these important decisions. There's some serious umph behind this letter.

139
00:07:27,680 --> 00:07:32,360
Speaker 2: Signatories include Ossie, super Unisuper Aware, super Hester, Early Funds

140
00:07:32,360 --> 00:07:34,080
Speaker 2: Management and Forjeloity Australia.

141
00:07:35,080 --> 00:07:38,480
Speaker 1: Finally, Sean, we thought we'd checking in on some fun

142
00:07:38,560 --> 00:07:41,560
Speaker 1: facts about Easter, the stuff you probably don't think about,

143
00:07:41,600 --> 00:07:44,280
Speaker 1: and indeed maybe you actually don't need to know, but

144
00:07:44,440 --> 00:07:47,400
Speaker 1: it is Easter and I know you, Sean, and the

145
00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:50,240
Speaker 1: thing is that you would have just started here by

146
00:07:50,560 --> 00:07:52,640
Speaker 1: just looking up one thing that you needed to check

147
00:07:52,760 --> 00:07:55,560
Speaker 1: about Easter, and you go down a rabbit hole, so

148
00:07:55,640 --> 00:07:58,840
Speaker 1: to speak. You go and all of a sudden you've

149
00:07:58,840 --> 00:08:00,920
Speaker 1: got a dozen facts to spit out at us.

150
00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:02,600
Speaker 2: So I didn't really want to talk about how many

151
00:08:02,640 --> 00:08:05,200
Speaker 2: eggs we eat and the biggest like that's kind of

152
00:08:05,600 --> 00:08:08,400
Speaker 2: how hum So I did actually do exactly what you

153
00:08:08,440 --> 00:08:12,240
Speaker 2: were saying. And you know, for the Christian community, it's

154
00:08:12,280 --> 00:08:16,280
Speaker 2: about the resurrection of Christ, new beginnings, and most of

155
00:08:16,480 --> 00:08:21,600
Speaker 2: Easter traditions, even if they're not Christian, reflect that whole idea.

156
00:08:21,760 --> 00:08:25,280
Speaker 2: So chocolate eggs or eggs generally in chocolate eggs, they're

157
00:08:25,320 --> 00:08:29,920
Speaker 2: the symbol of fertility, not actually from christian probably from Paganism,

158
00:08:30,400 --> 00:08:34,000
Speaker 2: but that whole sort of idea of regeneration. The Easter

159
00:08:34,040 --> 00:08:36,600
Speaker 2: bunny nothing to do with religion. I mean, what sort

160
00:08:36,640 --> 00:08:41,120
Speaker 2: of bunny brings eggs anyway, that's just an aside of ridiculous.

161
00:08:41,360 --> 00:08:44,040
Speaker 2: But the origin of the Easter bunny dates back hundreds

162
00:08:44,080 --> 00:08:49,080
Speaker 2: of years, probably pre Christian Germany. Back there, the hair

163
00:08:49,160 --> 00:08:51,320
Speaker 2: was said to be the symbol of the pagan goddess

164
00:08:51,440 --> 00:08:55,679
Speaker 2: of spring and fertility, so once again rebirth and that

165
00:08:55,840 --> 00:08:59,520
Speaker 2: kind of got intermingled with Christianity over the years Easter

166
00:08:59,559 --> 00:09:03,160
Speaker 2: Bunny and somewhere the word Easter, which I just assumed

167
00:09:03,280 --> 00:09:07,160
Speaker 2: was the Christian word. Well, it was named after the

168
00:09:07,160 --> 00:09:11,920
Speaker 2: Anglo Saxon goddess Estray, so it's e O s Tre.

169
00:09:13,440 --> 00:09:16,120
Speaker 2: She was depicted as a fertility goddess and goddess of

170
00:09:16,200 --> 00:09:20,000
Speaker 2: dawn and light, so again fertility, nothing to do with Christianity.

171
00:09:20,679 --> 00:09:23,600
Speaker 1: I had no idea about any of that.

172
00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:26,560
Speaker 2: Well, then I found myself the big Easter eggs, the

173
00:09:26,600 --> 00:09:30,920
Speaker 2: biggest in ol Berta of Canada, five thousand pounds, most expensive,

174
00:09:31,120 --> 00:09:34,320
Speaker 2: probably a Faberge egg sole that Christie's in London in

175
00:09:34,360 --> 00:09:38,120
Speaker 2: two thousand and seven nine million pounds, is actually made

176
00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:40,480
Speaker 2: in Saint Petersburg by Carl Fabaga back in nine and

177
00:09:40,559 --> 00:09:44,200
Speaker 2: oh two. Yeah, I mean that's probably all I've got

178
00:09:44,240 --> 00:09:45,800
Speaker 2: to say about it, Easter. But I just thought it

179
00:09:45,800 --> 00:09:46,559
Speaker 2: was kind of interesting.

180
00:09:47,400 --> 00:09:49,960
Speaker 1: Did you notice did you like the stats that we

181
00:09:50,040 --> 00:09:55,920
Speaker 1: put into the Fear Angry Daily newsletter yesterday?

182
00:09:56,000 --> 00:09:56,559
Speaker 2: Yesterday?

183
00:09:57,000 --> 00:10:01,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, about the world's biggest chocolate produce uses the companies

184
00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:04,240
Speaker 1: and it's just such an interesting battle between numbers one

185
00:10:04,280 --> 00:10:08,600
Speaker 1: and two on that list. Yeah, because Mars has been

186
00:10:08,679 --> 00:10:11,720
Speaker 1: number one for a long time, but in fact it

187
00:10:11,800 --> 00:10:17,960
Speaker 1: has been dethroned, displaced at the top by Ferrero.

188
00:10:18,080 --> 00:10:22,319
Speaker 2: It's melted, maybe melted from the top.

189
00:10:22,800 --> 00:10:25,400
Speaker 1: But anyway, it's really interesting. But it's also a little

190
00:10:25,440 --> 00:10:28,560
Speaker 1: bit unclear as to exactly how much of Mars's revenue

191
00:10:28,640 --> 00:10:33,360
Speaker 1: comes from chocolate, specifically because it is yeah, and because

192
00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:36,480
Speaker 1: it's a private company. It is one of the biggest

193
00:10:36,520 --> 00:10:38,440
Speaker 1: privately held companies in the US.

194
00:10:38,559 --> 00:10:41,760
Speaker 2: And if you feel you've missed out on that particular

195
00:10:42,240 --> 00:10:46,040
Speaker 2: piece of information which you do need for Easter lunch, well,

196
00:10:46,360 --> 00:10:48,079
Speaker 2: if you had signed up to the newsletter, if you

197
00:10:48,160 --> 00:10:50,640
Speaker 2: Andgreed dot com today, you would have it go.

198
00:10:51,240 --> 00:10:53,360
Speaker 1: Yeah. I love the fact that you weren't actually offering

199
00:10:53,400 --> 00:10:56,280
Speaker 1: anyone away to get that particular piece of information. It

200
00:10:56,320 --> 00:10:58,319
Speaker 1: was just to learn from your mistake.

201
00:10:58,440 --> 00:10:59,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, and sign up.

202
00:10:59,800 --> 00:11:02,600
Speaker 1: Now that's it. There is a link in today's show notes.

203
00:11:02,679 --> 00:11:04,680
Speaker 1: Up next is The Fear and a daily interview Katrina

204
00:11:04,720 --> 00:11:08,319
Speaker 1: McFee from Aware super So still plenty of good listening

205
00:11:08,400 --> 00:11:10,800
Speaker 1: and something a bit of a surprise coming up later

206
00:11:10,840 --> 00:11:14,199
Speaker 1: in the day as well, particularly when you're interested in

207
00:11:14,200 --> 00:11:16,520
Speaker 1: investing a little bit of extra information for you. Great

208
00:11:16,600 --> 00:11:18,559
Speaker 1: interview coming up later as well Today Seawan thank you

209
00:11:18,679 --> 00:11:19,040
Speaker 1: very much.

210
00:11:19,160 --> 00:11:19,800
Speaker 2: Thank you, Michael.

211
00:11:20,080 --> 00:11:22,720
Speaker 1: It is Friday, the eighteenth of April twenty twenty five.

212
00:11:22,800 --> 00:11:24,880
Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us

213
00:11:24,920 --> 00:11:28,720
Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. Oh, Michael Thompson,

214
00:11:28,760 --> 00:11:32,839
Speaker 1: that was fear and greed. Have a great day.