Speaker 1: From Schwartz Media. I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven am.
Speaker 1: The assent of Donald Trump is likely to have alarming
Speaker 1: consequences for the climate. He was, after all, elected on
Speaker 1: a promise to drill, baby drill. He's already preparing to
Speaker 1: pull out of the Paris Agreement again. This time though
Speaker 1: he could also withdraw from the underlying convention, making it
Speaker 1: much harder for any successor to change course. Climate diplomat
Speaker 1: Tom Woodroffe was there when the Paris Agreement was signed
Speaker 1: and when Trump rescinded the first time round. Now as
Speaker 1: COP twenty nine kicks off and Azerbaijan, he says, all
Speaker 1: of this makes it even more crucial that Australia takes
Speaker 1: a leading role in international climate negotiation. Today, Senior International Fellow
Speaker 1: with the Smart Energy Council, Tom woodriff on Donald Trump
Speaker 1: and whether global action on climate is a lost cause
Speaker 1: without the United States. It's Tuesday, November twelfth, So Tom,
Speaker 1: now that Donald Trump has been elected, what should we expect?
Speaker 1: What are the likely consequences for the climate crisis.
Speaker 2: Let's not make any if saw butts about this. Trump
Speaker 2: is going to be a giant wrecking ball for the planner.
Speaker 3: When I hear these people talking about global warming. That's
Speaker 3: the global warming you have to worry about, not that
Speaker 3: the ocean is going to rise in four hundred years
Speaker 3: and eighth of an inch and you have more seafront property,
Speaker 3: right if that happens, I said, is that good or bad?
Speaker 3: I said, isn't that a good thing? If I have
Speaker 3: a little property on there.
Speaker 2: We can expect him seriously wind back what's called the
Speaker 2: Inflation Reduction Act, which actually was the biggest piece of
Speaker 2: climate legislation pass anywhere in the world, especially in terms
Speaker 2: of the tax credits that it provides for households to
Speaker 2: install solar panels, to improve energy efficiency, and to buy
Speaker 2: electric vehicles, which even Elon must supports scrapping given that
Speaker 2: it tended to flow towards the cheaper manufacturers. Trump has
Speaker 2: even said that climate change is a massive Chinese hoax.
Speaker 3: So Obama is talking about all of this with the
Speaker 3: global warming and a lot of it's a hoax.
Speaker 2: It's a hoax.
Speaker 3: I mean, it's some money making and.
Speaker 2: Whether linked to Trump or not. The Conservative twenty twenty
Speaker 2: five playbook even recommended that he acts the Environmental Protection Agency,
Speaker 2: which Ronald Reagan found it and that does critical work
Speaker 2: like monitoring air pollution and replacing lead pipes around the country.
Speaker 2: So no matter which way you cut it, he is
Speaker 2: going to have a huge and profound impact in terms
Speaker 2: of what is happening on the ground in the United States.
Speaker 2: I think the good news, though this time rautily, is
Speaker 2: that eight years ago, when Trump was first elected, there
Speaker 2: was a sense of infancy about some of this, and
Speaker 2: now there is a sense that a lot of the
Speaker 2: momentum that has been built up is in many ways unstoppable.
Speaker 2: So the US absenteeism from the International Climate Fold will
Speaker 2: not necessarily have the same impact on the flow of
Speaker 2: investment in capital towards green projects around the rest of
Speaker 2: the world as it may have had then.
Speaker 1: And you say absenteeism, how does this work? Because obviously
Speaker 1: Biden's delegates have been preparing for this cop for a
Speaker 1: long time, so they will still go. But how will
Speaker 1: the rest of the world respond and how constrained will
Speaker 1: they be?
Speaker 2: That's right? I mean the weird thing here is that
Speaker 2: for the US negotiating team in Azerbaijan, it will be
Speaker 2: situation normal in many respects. In fact, they will also
Speaker 2: have an eye on their legacy and they will be
Speaker 2: frantically behind the scenes trying to do whatever they can
Speaker 2: to lock in anything that they believe is durable and meaningful.
Speaker 1: Okay, well, let's talk a bit more about what is
Speaker 1: going to happen at COP twenty nine underway now, and
Speaker 1: Azerbaijan tell me about what it's trying to achieve. What
Speaker 1: is the stated goal?
Speaker 2: So this year's COP, the biggest item on the agenda
Speaker 2: is agreeing something which in UN parlance is called the
Speaker 2: new Collective Quantified Goal on Climate finance. And this is
Speaker 2: effectively a promise as to how much governments around the
Speaker 2: world need to provide developing countries, including the most vulnerable countries,
Speaker 2: to help them mitigate and also adapt the impacts they
Speaker 2: enlarge part have not been responsible for. For the most
Speaker 2: vulnerable countries in the world, like those in the Pacific,
Speaker 2: they are already doing everything they can to fight climate change.
Speaker 2: Many have the most impressive renewable energy targets anywhere in
Speaker 2: the world, but they also need money to be able
Speaker 2: to adapt to the impacts as they get more intense
Speaker 2: and more frequent. And that is why a new finance goal,
Speaker 2: and particularly delivery on that new finance goal is going
Speaker 2: to be so important for those countries. I mean, when
Speaker 2: I was working for the Marshall Islands government, they were
Speaker 2: hit by a cyclone that in one night wipe three
Speaker 2: percent of their GDP, and many of these damages are
Speaker 2: also at the point for these countries had been irreversible.
Speaker 2: You can't grow the same crops anymore or fish in
Speaker 2: the same places, so you need money to be able
Speaker 2: to innovate and adapt.
Speaker 1: Coming up after the break the case for Australia to
Speaker 1: take on global climate leadership, Tom, let's talk about Australia's
Speaker 1: role moving forward. How do you think we should be
Speaker 1: approaching this moment as the US walks away from its obligations.
Speaker 2: So Australia's put up its hand to host the twenty
Speaker 2: twenty six COP which will be COP thirty one. We've
Speaker 2: also said we want to host this COP in partnership
Speaker 2: with the Pacific and I think that that needs to
Speaker 2: be more than a SoundBite, because it's actually an opportunity
Speaker 2: to bring the voices of the most vulnerable into the
Speaker 2: driving seat of the international process, which will play a
Speaker 2: huge part in hopefully securing their future. But most important,
Speaker 2: I also think beyond it being good for the planet.
Speaker 2: Hosting a COP is actually a good thing for Australia
Speaker 2: to do for its economy, geopolitically and culturally, and to
Speaker 2: do so in harness with the government's legislated and that
Speaker 2: zero trajectory and future Made in Australia policy. The brutal
Speaker 2: reality is if we don't become a clean energy export superpower,
Speaker 2: we are facing an economic cliff of our own making
Speaker 2: as worldwide demand for fossil fuels drives out. But it
Speaker 2: also means it's an opportunity for developed countries like Australia
Speaker 2: to step up, to reassure the rest of the world,
Speaker 2: reassure the Pacific, to let them know that we are
Speaker 2: not going to follow Trump out of the door, and
Speaker 2: actually to ideally do more to step up right.
Speaker 1: All of that sounds great, of course, but I have
Speaker 1: to ask how much credibility do COPS have at the moment,
Speaker 1: because if you look at last year in Jubai, there
Speaker 1: was this agreement made to transition away from fossil fuels.
Speaker 1: However Australia is not doing that, and globally in the
Speaker 1: past year the amount of fossil fuels used and export
Speaker 1: sales have continued to rise. So how much faith do
Speaker 1: you think that there is in the agreed outcomes that
Speaker 1: come from any cop at this point, I.
Speaker 2: Think you're absolutely right to say the delivery on last
Speaker 2: year's agreements has not been carried through as far us
Speaker 2: as it should have been. But I still think the
Speaker 2: fact that you've got all these countries showing up and
Speaker 2: one hundred world leaders shows that there is faith and
Speaker 2: hope in this process. Yes, we have a hell of
Speaker 2: a lot more to do on our fossil fuel exports
Speaker 2: and we need to be making that transition by twenty fifty.
Speaker 2: The International Energy ATIONCY says that worldwide demand for fossil
Speaker 2: fuels will drop from about eighty percent at the moment
Speaker 2: to twenty percent in terms of its usage for energy production,
Speaker 2: and that could leave Australia absolutely high and dry if
Speaker 2: we don't transition our economy towards being one that can
Speaker 2: export clean energy. But the hope, certainly of the Australian
Speaker 2: government is that they will be able to return from
Speaker 2: Baku victorious and be able to have a full two
Speaker 2: years to be able to prepare for what is a
Speaker 2: massive opportunity at the end of twenty twenty six.
Speaker 1: Okay, I just want to come back to this COP.
Speaker 1: I mean, the overall aim of all of the cops
Speaker 1: is for states to agree and develop and share plans
Speaker 1: to address climate change. And if we take a step
Speaker 1: back and look at the big picture on that, I mean,
Speaker 1: we know that the most catastrophic effects of climate change
Speaker 1: can only be avoided if we limit global warming to
Speaker 1: one point five degrees. Yet at present we are not
Speaker 1: on track for that globally, and summat after summit seems
Speaker 1: to fail to curb that. And even this summit, I mean,
Speaker 1: we're talking about how to get the funds to help
Speaker 1: countries adapt to the effects of climate change now rather
Speaker 1: than stop it. So does it feel to you like
Speaker 1: we've given up on one point.
Speaker 2: Five I hope not. I mean I was part of
Speaker 2: a delegation that put the one point five degree target
Speaker 2: on the table originally, which was the Marshall Islands government.
Speaker 2: I mean we are now in a world, in a
Speaker 2: window where every gigaton of emissions matters, where every fraction
Speaker 2: of a degree matters, and every delay for our ability
Speaker 2: to avoid the worst impacts to come matters. Now, if
Speaker 2: you look at this science and if you look at
Speaker 2: the impact of the Trump administration withdrawing in terms of
Speaker 2: its impact, particularly on the amount of emissions that are
Speaker 2: likely now to be plowed into the atmosphere. Yes, scientifically,
Speaker 2: it's very hard to see a pathway to keeping temperatures
Speaker 2: within one point five degrees. It's also very hard to
Speaker 2: see a pathway to the goal to halve global emissions
Speaker 2: by twenty thirty, which the science says is required to
Speaker 2: keep temperatures below one point five degrees. Like, it is
Speaker 2: a seriously big deal. So, yes, it does start to
Speaker 2: feel like those targets and safe limits are becoming out
Speaker 2: of reach.
Speaker 1: Okay, So going into this cop then, off the back
Speaker 1: of the election of Donald Trump, you're someone who's dedicated
Speaker 1: their life to action on climate change. You've negotiated on
Speaker 1: behalf of one of the most vulnerable countries in the past.
Speaker 1: I believe that you have small children as well. So
Speaker 1: do you have hope? How are you feeling?
Speaker 2: Look, this is the worst moment that I can remember
Speaker 2: when it comes to the climate fight, and at least
Speaker 2: last time, I think that there was some hope that
Speaker 2: Trump would not succumb to his worst cleavages once in office.
Speaker 2: But I think the other point as well is that
Speaker 2: this time around compared to eight years ago, that clean
Speaker 2: energy transformation is more advanced than it was. Even with
Speaker 2: the US rolling back its efforts next thing in the
Speaker 2: Paris agrement, it will not have the same impact on
Speaker 2: the global clean energy market as it did last time.
Speaker 2: China is still the biggest player here. It installed more
Speaker 2: renewable energy last year than the rest of the world combined.
Speaker 2: And momentum is unstoppable as it was when Trump was
Speaker 2: last elected, but this time around it's even more mature.
Speaker 2: But there is absolutely no sugarcoating that this is a
Speaker 2: kick in the guts for the planet. But let me
Speaker 2: also say this. I think that if you are from
Speaker 2: one of the most vulnerable countries in the world, you
Speaker 2: have no choice but to have hope. As indeed, probably
Speaker 2: every pairing in the world also needs to have hope
Speaker 2: about this process. And you need to put your hopes
Speaker 2: in the fact that the world will be able to
Speaker 2: exponentially innovate new and cheaper technologies. You've got to have
Speaker 2: hope that the global community will hold its nerve, including
Speaker 2: in Australia, and not take a step back and instead
Speaker 2: will take a step up. Tom.
Speaker 1: Thank you so much of your time today, no worse,
Speaker 1: Thank you. Also in the news today, Treasurer Jim Chalmers
Speaker 1: says Australia won't be immune from possible economic fallout from
Speaker 1: Donald Trump's re election. Delivering a speech to foreign policy experts,
Speaker 1: Jim Chalmers said Australia is well prepared for a Trump presidency,
Speaker 1: but warned his tariff plans may hit Australia's economy and
Speaker 1: trigger a short term inflation spike. And former senator and
Speaker 1: human rights official Chris Evans has been appointed as Australia's
Speaker 1: first Anti slavery Commissioner. The Commissioner's role will be to
Speaker 1: work with the government to target exploitative practices, including human trafficking,
Speaker 1: forced labor and forced marriages. I'm Ruby Jones. This is
Speaker 1: seven am.
Speaker 2: See you tomorrow.