WEBVTT - Donald Trump and the future of climate action

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<v Speaker 1>From Schwartz Media. I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven am.

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<v Speaker 1>The assent of Donald Trump is likely to have alarming

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<v Speaker 1>consequences for the climate. He was, after all, elected on

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<v Speaker 1>a promise to drill, baby drill. He's already preparing to

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<v Speaker 1>pull out of the Paris Agreement again. This time though

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<v Speaker 1>he could also withdraw from the underlying convention, making it

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<v Speaker 1>much harder for any successor to change course. Climate diplomat

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<v Speaker 1>Tom Woodroffe was there when the Paris Agreement was signed

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<v Speaker 1>and when Trump rescinded the first time round. Now as

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<v Speaker 1>COP twenty nine kicks off and Azerbaijan, he says, all

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<v Speaker 1>of this makes it even more crucial that Australia takes

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<v Speaker 1>a leading role in international climate negotiation. Today, Senior International Fellow

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<v Speaker 1>with the Smart Energy Council, Tom woodriff on Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 1>and whether global action on climate is a lost cause

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<v Speaker 1>without the United States. It's Tuesday, November twelfth, So Tom,

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<v Speaker 1>now that Donald Trump has been elected, what should we expect?

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<v Speaker 1>What are the likely consequences for the climate crisis.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's not make any if saw butts about this. Trump

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<v Speaker 2>is going to be a giant wrecking ball for the planner.

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<v Speaker 3>When I hear these people talking about global warming. That's

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<v Speaker 3>the global warming you have to worry about, not that

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<v Speaker 3>the ocean is going to rise in four hundred years

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<v Speaker 3>and eighth of an inch and you have more seafront property,

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<v Speaker 3>right if that happens, I said, is that good or bad?

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<v Speaker 3>I said, isn't that a good thing? If I have

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<v Speaker 3>a little property on there.

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<v Speaker 2>We can expect him seriously wind back what's called the

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<v Speaker 2>Inflation Reduction Act, which actually was the biggest piece of

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<v Speaker 2>climate legislation pass anywhere in the world, especially in terms

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<v Speaker 2>of the tax credits that it provides for households to

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<v Speaker 2>install solar panels, to improve energy efficiency, and to buy

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<v Speaker 2>electric vehicles, which even Elon must supports scrapping given that

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<v Speaker 2>it tended to flow towards the cheaper manufacturers. Trump has

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<v Speaker 2>even said that climate change is a massive Chinese hoax.

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<v Speaker 3>So Obama is talking about all of this with the

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<v Speaker 3>global warming and a lot of it's a hoax.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a hoax.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, it's some money making and.

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<v Speaker 2>Whether linked to Trump or not. The Conservative twenty twenty

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<v Speaker 2>five playbook even recommended that he acts the Environmental Protection Agency,

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<v Speaker 2>which Ronald Reagan found it and that does critical work

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<v Speaker 2>like monitoring air pollution and replacing lead pipes around the country.

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<v Speaker 2>So no matter which way you cut it, he is

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<v Speaker 2>going to have a huge and profound impact in terms

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<v Speaker 2>of what is happening on the ground in the United States.

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<v Speaker 2>I think the good news, though this time rautily, is

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<v Speaker 2>that eight years ago, when Trump was first elected, there

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<v Speaker 2>was a sense of infancy about some of this, and

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<v Speaker 2>now there is a sense that a lot of the

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<v Speaker 2>momentum that has been built up is in many ways unstoppable.

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<v Speaker 2>So the US absenteeism from the International Climate Fold will

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<v Speaker 2>not necessarily have the same impact on the flow of

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<v Speaker 2>investment in capital towards green projects around the rest of

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<v Speaker 2>the world as it may have had then.

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<v Speaker 1>And you say absenteeism, how does this work? Because obviously

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<v Speaker 1>Biden's delegates have been preparing for this cop for a

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<v Speaker 1>long time, so they will still go. But how will

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<v Speaker 1>the rest of the world respond and how constrained will

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<v Speaker 1>they be?

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<v Speaker 2>That's right? I mean the weird thing here is that

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<v Speaker 2>for the US negotiating team in Azerbaijan, it will be

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<v Speaker 2>situation normal in many respects. In fact, they will also

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<v Speaker 2>have an eye on their legacy and they will be

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<v Speaker 2>frantically behind the scenes trying to do whatever they can

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<v Speaker 2>to lock in anything that they believe is durable and meaningful.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, well, let's talk a bit more about what is

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<v Speaker 1>going to happen at COP twenty nine underway now, and

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<v Speaker 1>Azerbaijan tell me about what it's trying to achieve. What

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<v Speaker 1>is the stated goal?

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<v Speaker 2>So this year's COP, the biggest item on the agenda

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<v Speaker 2>is agreeing something which in UN parlance is called the

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<v Speaker 2>new Collective Quantified Goal on Climate finance. And this is

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<v Speaker 2>effectively a promise as to how much governments around the

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<v Speaker 2>world need to provide developing countries, including the most vulnerable countries,

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<v Speaker 2>to help them mitigate and also adapt the impacts they

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<v Speaker 2>enlarge part have not been responsible for. For the most

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<v Speaker 2>vulnerable countries in the world, like those in the Pacific,

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<v Speaker 2>they are already doing everything they can to fight climate change.

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<v Speaker 2>Many have the most impressive renewable energy targets anywhere in

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<v Speaker 2>the world, but they also need money to be able

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<v Speaker 2>to adapt to the impacts as they get more intense

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<v Speaker 2>and more frequent. And that is why a new finance goal,

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<v Speaker 2>and particularly delivery on that new finance goal is going

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<v Speaker 2>to be so important for those countries. I mean, when

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<v Speaker 2>I was working for the Marshall Islands government, they were

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<v Speaker 2>hit by a cyclone that in one night wipe three

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<v Speaker 2>percent of their GDP, and many of these damages are

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<v Speaker 2>also at the point for these countries had been irreversible.

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<v Speaker 2>You can't grow the same crops anymore or fish in

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<v Speaker 2>the same places, so you need money to be able

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<v Speaker 2>to innovate and adapt.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up after the break the case for Australia to

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<v Speaker 1>take on global climate leadership, Tom, let's talk about Australia's

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<v Speaker 1>role moving forward. How do you think we should be

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<v Speaker 1>approaching this moment as the US walks away from its obligations.

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<v Speaker 2>So Australia's put up its hand to host the twenty

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<v Speaker 2>twenty six COP which will be COP thirty one. We've

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<v Speaker 2>also said we want to host this COP in partnership

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<v Speaker 2>with the Pacific and I think that that needs to

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<v Speaker 2>be more than a SoundBite, because it's actually an opportunity

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<v Speaker 2>to bring the voices of the most vulnerable into the

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<v Speaker 2>driving seat of the international process, which will play a

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<v Speaker 2>huge part in hopefully securing their future. But most important,

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<v Speaker 2>I also think beyond it being good for the planet.

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<v Speaker 2>Hosting a COP is actually a good thing for Australia

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<v Speaker 2>to do for its economy, geopolitically and culturally, and to

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<v Speaker 2>do so in harness with the government's legislated and that

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<v Speaker 2>zero trajectory and future Made in Australia policy. The brutal

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<v Speaker 2>reality is if we don't become a clean energy export superpower,

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<v Speaker 2>we are facing an economic cliff of our own making

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<v Speaker 2>as worldwide demand for fossil fuels drives out. But it

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<v Speaker 2>also means it's an opportunity for developed countries like Australia

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<v Speaker 2>to step up, to reassure the rest of the world,

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<v Speaker 2>reassure the Pacific, to let them know that we are

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<v Speaker 2>not going to follow Trump out of the door, and

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<v Speaker 2>actually to ideally do more to step up right.

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<v Speaker 1>All of that sounds great, of course, but I have

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<v Speaker 1>to ask how much credibility do COPS have at the moment,

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<v Speaker 1>because if you look at last year in Jubai, there

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<v Speaker 1>was this agreement made to transition away from fossil fuels.

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<v Speaker 1>However Australia is not doing that, and globally in the

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<v Speaker 1>past year the amount of fossil fuels used and export

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<v Speaker 1>sales have continued to rise. So how much faith do

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<v Speaker 1>you think that there is in the agreed outcomes that

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<v Speaker 1>come from any cop at this point, I.

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<v Speaker 2>Think you're absolutely right to say the delivery on last

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<v Speaker 2>year's agreements has not been carried through as far us

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<v Speaker 2>as it should have been. But I still think the

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<v Speaker 2>fact that you've got all these countries showing up and

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<v Speaker 2>one hundred world leaders shows that there is faith and

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<v Speaker 2>hope in this process. Yes, we have a hell of

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<v Speaker 2>a lot more to do on our fossil fuel exports

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<v Speaker 2>and we need to be making that transition by twenty fifty.

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<v Speaker 2>The International Energy ATIONCY says that worldwide demand for fossil

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<v Speaker 2>fuels will drop from about eighty percent at the moment

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<v Speaker 2>to twenty percent in terms of its usage for energy production,

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<v Speaker 2>and that could leave Australia absolutely high and dry if

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<v Speaker 2>we don't transition our economy towards being one that can

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<v Speaker 2>export clean energy. But the hope, certainly of the Australian

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<v Speaker 2>government is that they will be able to return from

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<v Speaker 2>Baku victorious and be able to have a full two

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<v Speaker 2>years to be able to prepare for what is a

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<v Speaker 2>massive opportunity at the end of twenty twenty six.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, I just want to come back to this COP.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, the overall aim of all of the cops

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<v Speaker 1>is for states to agree and develop and share plans

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<v Speaker 1>to address climate change. And if we take a step

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<v Speaker 1>back and look at the big picture on that, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>we know that the most catastrophic effects of climate change

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<v Speaker 1>can only be avoided if we limit global warming to

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<v Speaker 1>one point five degrees. Yet at present we are not

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<v Speaker 1>on track for that globally, and summat after summit seems

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<v Speaker 1>to fail to curb that. And even this summit, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>we're talking about how to get the funds to help

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<v Speaker 1>countries adapt to the effects of climate change now rather

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<v Speaker 1>than stop it. So does it feel to you like

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<v Speaker 1>we've given up on one point.

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<v Speaker 2>Five I hope not. I mean I was part of

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<v Speaker 2>a delegation that put the one point five degree target

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<v Speaker 2>on the table originally, which was the Marshall Islands government.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean we are now in a world, in a

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<v Speaker 2>window where every gigaton of emissions matters, where every fraction

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<v Speaker 2>of a degree matters, and every delay for our ability

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<v Speaker 2>to avoid the worst impacts to come matters. Now, if

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<v Speaker 2>you look at this science and if you look at

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<v Speaker 2>the impact of the Trump administration withdrawing in terms of

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<v Speaker 2>its impact, particularly on the amount of emissions that are

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<v Speaker 2>likely now to be plowed into the atmosphere. Yes, scientifically,

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<v Speaker 2>it's very hard to see a pathway to keeping temperatures

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<v Speaker 2>within one point five degrees. It's also very hard to

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<v Speaker 2>see a pathway to the goal to halve global emissions

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<v Speaker 2>by twenty thirty, which the science says is required to

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<v Speaker 2>keep temperatures below one point five degrees. Like, it is

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<v Speaker 2>a seriously big deal. So, yes, it does start to

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<v Speaker 2>feel like those targets and safe limits are becoming out

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<v Speaker 2>of reach.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, So going into this cop then, off the back

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<v Speaker 1>of the election of Donald Trump, you're someone who's dedicated

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<v Speaker 1>their life to action on climate change. You've negotiated on

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<v Speaker 1>behalf of one of the most vulnerable countries in the past.

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<v Speaker 1>I believe that you have small children as well. So

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<v Speaker 1>do you have hope? How are you feeling?

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<v Speaker 2>Look, this is the worst moment that I can remember

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<v Speaker 2>when it comes to the climate fight, and at least

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<v Speaker 2>last time, I think that there was some hope that

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<v Speaker 2>Trump would not succumb to his worst cleavages once in office.

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<v Speaker 2>But I think the other point as well is that

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<v Speaker 2>this time around compared to eight years ago, that clean

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<v Speaker 2>energy transformation is more advanced than it was. Even with

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<v Speaker 2>the US rolling back its efforts next thing in the

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<v Speaker 2>Paris agrement, it will not have the same impact on

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<v Speaker 2>the global clean energy market as it did last time.

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<v Speaker 2>China is still the biggest player here. It installed more

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<v Speaker 2>renewable energy last year than the rest of the world combined.

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<v Speaker 2>And momentum is unstoppable as it was when Trump was

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<v Speaker 2>last elected, but this time around it's even more mature.

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<v Speaker 2>But there is absolutely no sugarcoating that this is a

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<v Speaker 2>kick in the guts for the planet. But let me

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<v Speaker 2>also say this. I think that if you are from

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<v Speaker 2>one of the most vulnerable countries in the world, you

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<v Speaker 2>have no choice but to have hope. As indeed, probably

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<v Speaker 2>every pairing in the world also needs to have hope

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<v Speaker 2>about this process. And you need to put your hopes

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<v Speaker 2>in the fact that the world will be able to

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<v Speaker 2>exponentially innovate new and cheaper technologies. You've got to have

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<v Speaker 2>hope that the global community will hold its nerve, including

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<v Speaker 2>in Australia, and not take a step back and instead

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<v Speaker 2>will take a step up. Tom.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much of your time today, no worse,

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you. Also in the news today, Treasurer Jim Chalmers

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<v Speaker 1>says Australia won't be immune from possible economic fallout from

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<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump's re election. Delivering a speech to foreign policy experts,

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<v Speaker 1>Jim Chalmers said Australia is well prepared for a Trump presidency,

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<v Speaker 1>but warned his tariff plans may hit Australia's economy and

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<v Speaker 1>trigger a short term inflation spike. And former senator and

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<v Speaker 1>human rights official Chris Evans has been appointed as Australia's

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<v Speaker 1>first Anti slavery Commissioner. The Commissioner's role will be to

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<v Speaker 1>work with the government to target exploitative practices, including human trafficking,

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<v Speaker 1>forced labor and forced marriages. I'm Ruby Jones. This is

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<v Speaker 1>seven am.

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<v Speaker 2>See you tomorrow.