1 00:00:03,930 --> 00:00:07,290 Jennifer Duke: Welcome to the Fear and Greed daily interview. I'm Jennifer Duke. 2 00:00:07,530 --> 00:00:10,680 Jennifer Duke: We talk so much about local equities on this podcast. 3 00:00:10,889 --> 00:00:13,080 Jennifer Duke: Today I wanted to look to the US and see 4 00:00:13,080 --> 00:00:15,809 Jennifer Duke: what's happening on Wall Street. Now of course, this is 5 00:00:15,809 --> 00:00:19,499 Jennifer Duke: general information only and you should definitely seek professional advice 6 00:00:19,499 --> 00:00:23,370 Jennifer Duke: before making any investment decisions. Now, Josh Gilbert is a market 7 00:00:23,370 --> 00:00:26,819 Jennifer Duke: analyst at Social Investment Network, eToro, and a regular guest 8 00:00:26,820 --> 00:00:29,069 Jennifer Duke: on the podcast. Josh, welcome back to Fear and Greed. 9 00:00:29,400 --> 00:00:30,240 Josh Gilbert: Thanks for having me, Jen. 10 00:00:31,799 --> 00:00:34,649 Jennifer Duke: How much exactly does our market here in Australia follow 11 00:00:34,650 --> 00:00:35,159 Jennifer Duke: Wall Street? 12 00:00:36,570 --> 00:00:40,380 Josh Gilbert: A fair bit. So depending on how the US market's 13 00:00:40,380 --> 00:00:43,769 Josh Gilbert: going overnight is usually a good guide of how we 14 00:00:43,769 --> 00:00:47,010 Josh Gilbert: can expect the Australian market to open the next day. 15 00:00:47,010 --> 00:00:49,888 Josh Gilbert: It's usually a bit of an indicator of what to 16 00:00:49,889 --> 00:00:53,820 Josh Gilbert: expect. Usually gives us a bit of an idea of 17 00:00:53,820 --> 00:00:55,920 Josh Gilbert: what's going to happen on the Australian market because the 18 00:00:55,920 --> 00:00:58,260 Josh Gilbert: US markets are the biggest in the world and they 19 00:00:58,260 --> 00:01:00,660 Josh Gilbert: drive pretty much everything. The US is the biggest economy 20 00:01:00,660 --> 00:01:03,660 Josh Gilbert: in the world as well. It is a big factor. 21 00:01:03,840 --> 00:01:07,500 Josh Gilbert: Again, the Australian market will trade by itself, so the 22 00:01:07,500 --> 00:01:10,529 Josh Gilbert: performance that we've seen from the Australian market and the 23 00:01:10,529 --> 00:01:15,630 Josh Gilbert: US markets this year are pretty stark in difference. It 24 00:01:15,630 --> 00:01:17,550 Josh Gilbert: usually just acts as a bit of a guide on 25 00:01:17,550 --> 00:01:20,760 Josh Gilbert: direction. It doesn't always mean that if US markets are 26 00:01:20,760 --> 00:01:23,670 Josh Gilbert: down, Australian markets will trade down, but they are usually 27 00:01:23,670 --> 00:01:24,929 Josh Gilbert: a bit of a guide. 28 00:01:25,889 --> 00:01:28,650 Jennifer Duke: There have been quite a few big tech IPOs lately 29 00:01:28,650 --> 00:01:31,440 Jennifer Duke: in the US, I think chip-maker Arm Holdings is a 30 00:01:31,440 --> 00:01:33,149 Jennifer Duke: really big one. What can you tell me about that? 31 00:01:34,620 --> 00:01:37,708 Josh Gilbert: IPOs are sort of catching the attention of investors again 32 00:01:37,709 --> 00:01:40,590 Josh Gilbert: with some big name listings coming back to the market. 33 00:01:40,889 --> 00:01:44,910 Josh Gilbert: You mentioned Arm Holdings there, which was probably the biggest 34 00:01:45,450 --> 00:01:49,800 Josh Gilbert: name of them all, particularly recently. We had a big 35 00:01:49,800 --> 00:01:53,220 Josh Gilbert: IPO fever in 2021 when we saw a record number 36 00:01:53,220 --> 00:01:56,849 Josh Gilbert: of IPOs. Then obviously in 2022, we had a really 37 00:01:56,849 --> 00:02:01,019 Josh Gilbert: difficult year for markets and for corporate businesses. It wasn't 38 00:02:01,020 --> 00:02:06,089 Josh Gilbert: the most perfect time to list publicly with share markets 39 00:02:06,090 --> 00:02:09,510 Josh Gilbert: being in a pretty deep bear market. This year, things have obviously 40 00:02:09,510 --> 00:02:12,450 Josh Gilbert: picked up. We're obviously in a much better position in 41 00:02:12,450 --> 00:02:18,120 Josh Gilbert: terms of how confident corporate businesses feel about listing their 42 00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:20,698 Josh Gilbert: businesses publicly, and I think that comes down to investor 43 00:02:20,700 --> 00:02:24,570 Josh Gilbert: appetite as well. You mentioned that we had Arm Holdings, 44 00:02:24,570 --> 00:02:27,900 Josh Gilbert: but we've also had Instacart. We've also had a couple 45 00:02:27,900 --> 00:02:30,270 Josh Gilbert: of other names in that time as well. As I say, 46 00:02:30,270 --> 00:02:33,960 Josh Gilbert: it's a sign that corporate sentiment is improving. As I said, 47 00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:38,130 Josh Gilbert: and that investors' appetite for buying is still healthy, and that's 48 00:02:38,130 --> 00:02:41,219 Josh Gilbert: a good thing. It shows that although we do have 49 00:02:41,219 --> 00:02:45,810 Josh Gilbert: interest rates at near decade highs globally, investors are still 50 00:02:45,810 --> 00:02:49,200 Josh Gilbert: I investing capital into financial markets and they have been 51 00:02:49,200 --> 00:02:53,669 Josh Gilbert: well received by investors. IPOs have caught the eye of investors. Arm, 52 00:02:53,669 --> 00:02:57,599 Josh Gilbert: as you mentioned, their shares were up 25% on its 53 00:02:57,599 --> 00:03:00,329 Josh Gilbert: first day of trading. It's also important to remember as 54 00:03:00,329 --> 00:03:03,000 Josh Gilbert: well that the number of stocks listed in the US 55 00:03:03,360 --> 00:03:05,700 Josh Gilbert: is something like 40% lower than what we had a 56 00:03:05,700 --> 00:03:10,560 Josh Gilbert: few decades ago. IPOs give investors new choices in markets 57 00:03:10,620 --> 00:03:14,400 Josh Gilbert: and that's brilliant, especially given that we are obviously far 58 00:03:14,400 --> 00:03:17,850 Josh Gilbert: lower than what we've seen many, many years ago. I 59 00:03:17,850 --> 00:03:19,590 Josh Gilbert: think that this isn't going to be the end. I 60 00:03:19,590 --> 00:03:22,200 Josh Gilbert: still think we've got plenty of IPOs to come. We've 61 00:03:22,200 --> 00:03:24,810 Josh Gilbert: got the likes of Birkenstock, obviously a big name here 62 00:03:24,810 --> 00:03:26,340 Josh Gilbert: that many will know here in Australia. 63 00:03:26,429 --> 00:03:26,639 Jennifer Duke: Yes. 64 00:03:26,639 --> 00:03:29,910 Josh Gilbert: That's set to make it debut soon over in Europe. 65 00:03:30,508 --> 00:03:33,089 Josh Gilbert: There are still plenty of big businesses and big corporates 66 00:03:33,089 --> 00:03:35,909 Josh Gilbert: that are flirting with the idea of IPOs. And for 67 00:03:35,910 --> 00:03:38,310 Josh Gilbert: those investors that like them, I think they should keep 68 00:03:38,310 --> 00:03:40,410 Josh Gilbert: their eyes out because there's going to be more coming 69 00:03:40,410 --> 00:03:41,970 Josh Gilbert: across Europe and the US soon. 70 00:03:42,750 --> 00:03:45,510 Jennifer Duke: You mentioned the effect of the higher interest rates and 71 00:03:45,960 --> 00:03:48,389 Jennifer Duke: the fact that confidence is still actually high among corporates 72 00:03:48,389 --> 00:03:51,210 Jennifer Duke: and investors regardless. Why do you think that is? What's 73 00:03:51,210 --> 00:03:52,530 Jennifer Duke: driving that confidence at the moment? 74 00:03:52,530 --> 00:03:57,420 Josh Gilbert: I think that we've now got this view looking ahead, 75 00:03:57,420 --> 00:04:01,650 Josh Gilbert: to the year ahead particularly. So usually when we get 76 00:04:01,650 --> 00:04:05,040 Josh Gilbert: to this period of the year, Q4 seasonality is usually 77 00:04:05,040 --> 00:04:07,680 Josh Gilbert: really good. Everyone starts to look ahead to the year. 78 00:04:07,980 --> 00:04:10,949 Josh Gilbert: They're probably more positive on what's ahead. We don't see 79 00:04:10,949 --> 00:04:13,920 Josh Gilbert: those risks that maybe can come at us in the 80 00:04:13,920 --> 00:04:20,700 Josh Gilbert: short term. Particularly if we look to 2024, I think 81 00:04:20,700 --> 00:04:24,899 Josh Gilbert: there is lots of positivity ahead and I think that 82 00:04:24,900 --> 00:04:28,260 Josh Gilbert: view is built on, we are seeing economies being more 83 00:04:28,260 --> 00:04:33,900 Josh Gilbert: resilient than many expected: We're avoiding recessions, we've got inflation 84 00:04:33,900 --> 00:04:37,560 Josh Gilbert: that's lowering and we've got this expectation that rate cuts 85 00:04:37,560 --> 00:04:41,460 Josh Gilbert: are going to come in 2024. For now, we're still in 86 00:04:41,460 --> 00:04:45,839 Josh Gilbert: this period of central banks saying that rates will stay 87 00:04:45,839 --> 00:04:48,570 Josh Gilbert: higher for longer, which is why we've seen a little 88 00:04:48,570 --> 00:04:51,150 Josh Gilbert: bit of weakness coming from markets over the last couple 89 00:04:51,150 --> 00:04:55,860 Josh Gilbert: of months. But particularly in the US, core inflation is 90 00:04:55,860 --> 00:04:59,069 Josh Gilbert: moving in the right direction. We've got earnings that are 91 00:04:59,070 --> 00:05:02,669 Josh Gilbert: recovering and we're going to see double-digit earnings growth next year. 92 00:05:03,120 --> 00:05:06,238 Josh Gilbert: I think investors are looking ahead to what is going 93 00:05:06,240 --> 00:05:09,839 Josh Gilbert: to happen. I think the biggest risk that we see 94 00:05:10,080 --> 00:05:13,589 Josh Gilbert: is actually being out of markets, not being in them 95 00:05:13,710 --> 00:05:17,639 Josh Gilbert: because some of those best days can come when being 96 00:05:17,639 --> 00:05:20,428 Josh Gilbert: out of markets and what we believe is going to 97 00:05:20,428 --> 00:05:25,320 Josh Gilbert: be a strong 2024. There are always things to worry about 98 00:05:25,320 --> 00:05:28,830 Josh Gilbert: in markets. If you worry about what's happening in markets, there's 99 00:05:29,130 --> 00:05:32,399 Josh Gilbert: always a good excuse to not be invested. We've got 100 00:05:33,120 --> 00:05:36,810 Josh Gilbert: higher oil prices at the moment, higher bond yields, but 101 00:05:37,170 --> 00:05:40,350 Josh Gilbert: we think these self- correct, especially on the oil side. 102 00:05:40,469 --> 00:05:45,810 Josh Gilbert: And ultimately the view of earnings recoveries at double- digit 103 00:05:45,810 --> 00:05:49,500 Josh Gilbert: growth next year and lower inflation and rate cuts, we 104 00:05:49,500 --> 00:05:51,900 Josh Gilbert: believe that's an environment that sets up a good year 105 00:05:51,900 --> 00:05:52,620 Josh Gilbert: for markets. 106 00:05:53,339 --> 00:05:55,349 Jennifer Duke: It's kind of interesting, a lot of those features are 107 00:05:55,349 --> 00:05:58,258 Jennifer Duke: very much global ones, but in Australia we haven't had 108 00:05:58,260 --> 00:06:01,259 Jennifer Duke: very much IPO activity at all lately. Why do you 109 00:06:01,260 --> 00:06:02,160 Jennifer Duke: think that's the case? 110 00:06:04,050 --> 00:06:06,000 Josh Gilbert: It's a good question and I think that comes down 111 00:06:06,000 --> 00:06:09,750 Josh Gilbert: to a couple of reasons. Obviously our equity market is 112 00:06:09,960 --> 00:06:12,150 Josh Gilbert: a little bit smaller than the rest of the world, 113 00:06:12,750 --> 00:06:18,149 Josh Gilbert: has underperformed really against global markets for a number of 114 00:06:18,150 --> 00:06:20,910 Josh Gilbert: years now. I think that we do obviously see those 115 00:06:20,910 --> 00:06:24,360 Josh Gilbert: smaller listings, but we don't really see those bigger name 116 00:06:24,480 --> 00:06:27,779 Josh Gilbert: listings, if you like. I think that can come down 117 00:06:27,779 --> 00:06:31,589 Josh Gilbert: to performance. We've obviously still got a Chinese economy that 118 00:06:31,589 --> 00:06:34,349 Josh Gilbert: is pretty weak and a lot of capital that is 119 00:06:34,529 --> 00:06:37,829 Josh Gilbert: ultimately overseas at the moment as well. I think if 120 00:06:38,550 --> 00:06:43,560 Josh Gilbert: corporate businesses are looking where to list publicly, the ASX may 121 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:46,380 Josh Gilbert: not always be the first place that they look to. 122 00:06:46,678 --> 00:06:48,479 Josh Gilbert: I think that will change though. I think, as I 123 00:06:48,480 --> 00:06:53,159 Josh Gilbert: say, we are going to start seeing more IPOs over 124 00:06:53,430 --> 00:06:56,430 Josh Gilbert: the next 12 to 18 months. I do think we will see 125 00:06:57,360 --> 00:07:01,230 Josh Gilbert: corporate businesses decide to list publicly. It will be a 126 00:07:01,230 --> 00:07:05,999 Josh Gilbert: better time for capital markets. We will see investors putting 127 00:07:06,000 --> 00:07:09,509 Josh Gilbert: money back into financial markets, particularly when we see those 128 00:07:09,509 --> 00:07:13,650 Josh Gilbert: rate cuts happening. That will leave investors with the freedom 129 00:07:13,650 --> 00:07:16,230 Josh Gilbert: to add a little bit more risk. I think that's 130 00:07:16,230 --> 00:07:19,950 Josh Gilbert: when we will start to see more businesses going public, 131 00:07:19,980 --> 00:07:21,810 Josh Gilbert: and I think Australia will be part of that. 132 00:07:22,260 --> 00:07:24,059 Jennifer Duke: Stay with me Josh, we'll be back in a minute. 133 00:07:30,270 --> 00:07:33,750 Jennifer Duke: I'm speaking to Josh Gilbert from eToro. For a lot 134 00:07:33,750 --> 00:07:37,170 Jennifer Duke: of the Aussie investors listening, some of their most popular 135 00:07:37,170 --> 00:07:40,139 Jennifer Duke: US stock', obviously Apple and Tesla. I don't want to 136 00:07:40,139 --> 00:07:41,969 Jennifer Duke: be basic, but I've got to ask you what's happening 137 00:07:41,969 --> 00:07:44,520 Jennifer Duke: with those. And also with some of the other big 138 00:07:44,520 --> 00:07:47,250 Jennifer Duke: gainers this year, so Meta and NVIDIA, what's kind of 139 00:07:47,250 --> 00:07:48,269 Jennifer Duke: going on in that space? 140 00:07:49,679 --> 00:07:51,120 Josh Gilbert: I mentioned it a little bit earlier, but we have 141 00:07:51,120 --> 00:07:53,700 Josh Gilbert: had a bit of a slowdown. We peaked with US 142 00:07:53,700 --> 00:07:58,799 Josh Gilbert: markets in July and then since that time, we've had 143 00:07:58,800 --> 00:08:00,360 Josh Gilbert: a bit of a pullback. There's been a number of 144 00:08:00,360 --> 00:08:04,739 Josh Gilbert: reasons for that. We've had this US credit rating downgrade. 145 00:08:05,129 --> 00:08:09,720 Josh Gilbert: We had the US Treasury announcing trillion dollar debt issuance plans. 146 00:08:09,780 --> 00:08:14,820 Josh Gilbert: We've got that weak summer seasonality from obviously overseas. I 147 00:08:14,820 --> 00:08:16,500 Josh Gilbert: think we saw a little bit of profit taken after 148 00:08:16,500 --> 00:08:18,690 Josh Gilbert: what was a huge start to the year. You had 149 00:08:18,690 --> 00:08:22,559 Josh Gilbert: the NASDAQ 100 up more than 40%, you had the S&P 150 00:08:22,559 --> 00:08:27,240 Josh Gilbert: 500 up more than 15 to 16% as well. I think it 151 00:08:27,240 --> 00:08:31,290 Josh Gilbert: was a healthy breather with that as well. But within that, 152 00:08:31,290 --> 00:08:35,280 Josh Gilbert: you've still got NVIDIA that's up more than 200%, Tesla 153 00:08:35,280 --> 00:08:39,209 Josh Gilbert: and meta up more than a hundred per cent. Obviously a 154 00:08:39,210 --> 00:08:42,119 Josh Gilbert: big part of why NVIDIA has done so well has 155 00:08:42,389 --> 00:08:46,050 Josh Gilbert: come from that AI boom. They've reaped the rewards of 156 00:08:46,320 --> 00:08:49,920 Josh Gilbert: this huge demand that we've seen from consumers and obviously 157 00:08:49,920 --> 00:08:54,239 Josh Gilbert: businesses alike, and they're leading that sort of race, and 158 00:08:54,540 --> 00:08:57,749 Josh Gilbert: they're ultimately delivering. I think that's really the key point. 159 00:08:58,619 --> 00:09:03,510 Josh Gilbert: Their Q2 earnings that came out late in August, early 160 00:09:03,510 --> 00:09:07,320 Josh Gilbert: in August, they promised a big quarter and they absolutely 161 00:09:07,320 --> 00:09:10,439 Josh Gilbert: delivered revenue climb by more than 100% year over year. 162 00:09:11,130 --> 00:09:15,299 Josh Gilbert: Earnings jumped by more than 400% as well. When you're 163 00:09:15,299 --> 00:09:18,449 Josh Gilbert: delivering those sort of numbers, that's the reason why we're 164 00:09:18,449 --> 00:09:22,530 Josh Gilbert: seeing shares up so significantly. Then you've got Meta. They're 165 00:09:22,530 --> 00:09:25,860 Josh Gilbert: obviously probably on a slightly different period to what we 166 00:09:25,860 --> 00:09:29,820 Josh Gilbert: had with NVIDIA, but they've gone into this year of efficiency. 167 00:09:30,150 --> 00:09:33,419 Josh Gilbert: 2022 is when we started to see interest rates come up. 168 00:09:33,660 --> 00:09:37,710 Josh Gilbert: Inflation was obviously starting to peak and you had businesses 169 00:09:37,710 --> 00:09:41,429 Josh Gilbert: hunkering down, you had consumers hunkering down, and then this 170 00:09:41,429 --> 00:09:45,478 Josh Gilbert: year they've gone into cost-cutting mode. They've completely saved billions 171 00:09:45,480 --> 00:09:49,620 Josh Gilbert: of dollars on expenses. They've got back to double-digit revenue 172 00:09:49,620 --> 00:09:53,340 Josh Gilbert: growth for the first time in two years. The 3.8 173 00:09:53,760 --> 00:09:56,010 Josh Gilbert: billion users that it has is obviously a bit of 174 00:09:56,010 --> 00:09:59,400 Josh Gilbert: a help as well. That's been a draw card for advertisers. 175 00:09:59,400 --> 00:10:06,179 Josh Gilbert: It's brought advertisers back. So advertising revenue has, what we believe, bottomed. 176 00:10:06,509 --> 00:10:10,530 Josh Gilbert: And we believe that advertisers feel more confident to spend now, 177 00:10:10,590 --> 00:10:13,530 Josh Gilbert: especially with, as I said at the start, economies being 178 00:10:13,530 --> 00:10:15,958 Josh Gilbert: more resilient than we first thought. At the start of 179 00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:20,220 Josh Gilbert: this year. The big conversation was recession, recession, recession, and ultimately, 180 00:10:20,220 --> 00:10:22,679 Josh Gilbert: it's not been that. The R word has been resilient, 181 00:10:22,980 --> 00:10:25,830 Josh Gilbert: and that's exactly what we've seen. There's businesses that have 182 00:10:25,830 --> 00:10:29,190 Josh Gilbert: done well and there have been businesses that have maybe underperformed. 183 00:10:29,400 --> 00:10:32,520 Josh Gilbert: We can look to things like the material sector. Obviously 184 00:10:32,520 --> 00:10:34,710 Josh Gilbert: China hasn't been a big help to that. You can 185 00:10:34,710 --> 00:10:38,488 Josh Gilbert: also look to financials, those sort of businesses have underperformed, 186 00:10:38,760 --> 00:10:41,549 Josh Gilbert: but we still look to tech as that sort of 187 00:10:42,030 --> 00:10:45,330 Josh Gilbert: safe haven, if you like, that has continued to perform 188 00:10:45,330 --> 00:10:48,569 Josh Gilbert: for investors despite what has been a difficult couple of years. 189 00:10:49,890 --> 00:10:52,830 Jennifer Duke: I'm curious as well, because crypto is something that we were 190 00:10:52,830 --> 00:10:55,020 Jennifer Duke: hearing a lot about previously, now everyone seems to be 191 00:10:55,020 --> 00:10:57,479 Jennifer Duke: just talking about AI, but what is actually going on 192 00:10:57,480 --> 00:10:59,520 Jennifer Duke: with crypto at the moment? Is it still as hype 193 00:10:59,520 --> 00:11:00,389 Jennifer Duke: as it was before? 194 00:11:01,770 --> 00:11:04,379 Josh Gilbert: It's a great point you make when you speak about 195 00:11:04,379 --> 00:11:07,800 Josh Gilbert: AI there, because I think that this sort of AI hype has sucked 196 00:11:07,800 --> 00:11:10,920 Josh Gilbert: some of the lifeblood away from crypto. That sort of 197 00:11:11,190 --> 00:11:14,489 Josh Gilbert: volatility and these big gains that we've seen from AI 198 00:11:14,490 --> 00:11:18,300 Josh Gilbert: stocks and the hype around AI has taken some of 199 00:11:18,300 --> 00:11:21,540 Josh Gilbert: that excitement away from crypto. But having said that, Bitcoin is 200 00:11:22,350 --> 00:11:24,870 Josh Gilbert: still up more than 60% year to date and is still 201 00:11:24,870 --> 00:11:29,280 Josh Gilbert: the best performing asset class in 2023, which is pretty surprising. 202 00:11:29,460 --> 00:11:32,099 Josh Gilbert: And many people won't know that because we are used 203 00:11:32,099 --> 00:11:35,160 Josh Gilbert: to this huge volatility and these big gains and these 204 00:11:35,160 --> 00:11:38,728 Josh Gilbert: big falls, but the volatility has kind of gone. We 205 00:11:38,730 --> 00:11:41,968 Josh Gilbert: do still see sell- offs, but I don't think it's 206 00:11:42,208 --> 00:11:46,770 Josh Gilbert: anything more dramatic than what we've seen from stock markets 207 00:11:47,400 --> 00:11:49,978 Josh Gilbert: and other asset classes. Oil, for example, in the last 208 00:11:50,099 --> 00:11:53,279 Josh Gilbert: couple of years. We are still significantly off those all 209 00:11:53,280 --> 00:11:57,599 Josh Gilbert: time highs, which is pretty important to know. The all 210 00:11:57,599 --> 00:12:02,490 Josh Gilbert: time high was around US$69,000 back in 2021, that's US dollars, 211 00:12:02,610 --> 00:12:05,850 Josh Gilbert: and we're still a fair distance from that. We had 212 00:12:05,850 --> 00:12:08,700 Josh Gilbert: some weakness recently as well coming off the back of 213 00:12:09,330 --> 00:12:12,569 Josh Gilbert: SpaceX writing off the value of its' Bitcoin. When you 214 00:12:12,570 --> 00:12:15,238 Josh Gilbert: have a big name like Elon Musk making moves in 215 00:12:15,240 --> 00:12:18,119 Josh Gilbert: the crypto space, it's always going to make a difference. 216 00:12:18,119 --> 00:12:22,470 Josh Gilbert: But similar to what I mentioned earlier with US markets 217 00:12:22,830 --> 00:12:25,228 Josh Gilbert: having a good year next year, we think the fundamentals 218 00:12:25,950 --> 00:12:29,670 Josh Gilbert: for crypto, and particularly Bitcoin, are aligning. We think that it's 219 00:12:29,670 --> 00:12:32,700 Josh Gilbert: setting up a strong year next year. First of all, 220 00:12:32,700 --> 00:12:35,909 Josh Gilbert: we can start with that macro improvement, we mentioned that earlier, 221 00:12:35,910 --> 00:12:40,950 Josh Gilbert: lower inflation, interest rate cuts. That's really important for risk assets. 222 00:12:41,010 --> 00:12:44,250 Josh Gilbert: As I said, it allows investors to take on more risk, 223 00:12:44,670 --> 00:12:48,478 Josh Gilbert: and crypto absolutely falls into that category. Then we can 224 00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:53,009 Josh Gilbert: look at the approval of spot ETFs, whether that's Bitcoin or Ethereum. 225 00:12:53,549 --> 00:12:57,780 Josh Gilbert: We've got improving regulatory clarity, and then in April next 226 00:12:57,780 --> 00:13:01,020 Josh Gilbert: year we've got the Bitcoin halving. Every Bitcoin halving in 227 00:13:02,190 --> 00:13:05,880 Josh Gilbert: its history has sort of been followed by a bull market. 228 00:13:05,880 --> 00:13:09,838 Josh Gilbert: So although history doesn't repeat itself, it certainly does rhyme. 229 00:13:10,230 --> 00:13:13,290 Josh Gilbert: But I think the big point to all of that 230 00:13:13,320 --> 00:13:16,290 Josh Gilbert: is a spot ETF, and it seems we are getting 231 00:13:16,290 --> 00:13:20,070 Josh Gilbert: closer to that reality. We had the BlackRock application that 232 00:13:20,070 --> 00:13:23,578 Josh Gilbert: went through a few months ago. They've got a pretty 233 00:13:23,580 --> 00:13:27,150 Josh Gilbert: stellar record for having ETFs accepted. I think only one 234 00:13:27,150 --> 00:13:30,718 Josh Gilbert: declined in their long history. And then we had Grayscale, 235 00:13:30,780 --> 00:13:33,990 Josh Gilbert: they had a recent court win to convert their current 236 00:13:33,990 --> 00:13:38,160 Josh Gilbert: trust into an ETF. And it's so important because this 237 00:13:38,160 --> 00:13:42,569 Josh Gilbert: allows institutional investment into the space, which we so need 238 00:13:42,570 --> 00:13:47,669 Josh Gilbert: into crypto. It paves the way for new capital, and 239 00:13:48,090 --> 00:13:50,280 Josh Gilbert: I think that's going to be really important. We've even got 240 00:13:50,280 --> 00:13:55,290 Josh Gilbert: the conversation now of central banks diversifying their FX reserves 241 00:13:55,530 --> 00:13:59,250 Josh Gilbert: to include Bitcoin alongside gold. We are talking about some 242 00:13:59,250 --> 00:14:04,019 Josh Gilbert: smaller central Asian countries there, but still, it's a step 243 00:14:04,020 --> 00:14:08,069 Josh Gilbert: in the right direction. I think all of those factors 244 00:14:08,070 --> 00:14:13,230 Josh Gilbert: coming together, improving macro, a spot ETF, the idea of 245 00:14:13,770 --> 00:14:18,989 Josh Gilbert: an improving regulatory environment and the Bitcoin halving, again, investors 246 00:14:18,990 --> 00:14:22,649 Josh Gilbert: are forward- looking. They're looking ahead to what will happen, 247 00:14:22,859 --> 00:14:27,330 Josh Gilbert: and all of those catalysts combined, I think set up 248 00:14:27,690 --> 00:14:31,530 Josh Gilbert: for a great period for crypto after/ probably being in 249 00:14:31,530 --> 00:14:33,750 Josh Gilbert: the cold for a period there, as you say, sort 250 00:14:33,750 --> 00:14:37,170 Josh Gilbert: of a lot of people forgetting or moving away from crypto. 251 00:14:37,770 --> 00:14:39,570 Jennifer Duke: It sounds like we'll be talking about crypto a lot 252 00:14:39,570 --> 00:14:42,359 Jennifer Duke: more for the months ahead. Look, Josh, thank you so 253 00:14:42,359 --> 00:14:43,649 Jennifer Duke: much for talking to Fear and Greed. 254 00:14:44,249 --> 00:14:45,059 Josh Gilbert: Thanks for having me, Jennifer. 255 00:14:45,690 --> 00:14:48,690 Jennifer Duke: That was Josh Gilbert, market analyst at Social Investment Network, 256 00:14:48,690 --> 00:14:51,870 Jennifer Duke: eToro. This is the Fear and Greed daily interview. Remember, 257 00:14:51,870 --> 00:14:54,809 Jennifer Duke: this is general information only and you should seek professional 258 00:14:54,809 --> 00:14:58,650 Jennifer Duke: advice before making any investment decisions. Join us every morning 259 00:14:58,650 --> 00:15:00,989 Jennifer Duke: for the full episode of Fear and Greed, Australia's most 260 00:15:00,990 --> 00:15:05,040 Jennifer Duke: popular business podcast. I'm Jennifer Duke, economics correspondent at Capital 261 00:15:05,040 --> 00:15:07,590 Jennifer Duke: Brief, and filling in for Sean Aylmer. Have a great day.