Speaker 1: From Schwartz Media. I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven am.
Speaker 1: When Arthur Sinnadinas arrived in Washington in twenty twenty, he
Speaker 1: was told the best way to get things done with
Speaker 1: Donald Trump was to go straight to the person in
Speaker 1: the White House handling the issue. In a lot of
Speaker 1: cases that wasn't a typical official. It was a business figure,
Speaker 1: a loyalist, or even a family member. And now Trump
Speaker 1: two point zero has a cabinet of even more MAGA loyalists,
Speaker 1: a stronger America First agenda, and according to Arthur Synadinus,
Speaker 1: what Trump sees as unfettered power to enact it unchallenged.
Speaker 1: Today Australia's former ambassador to the United States, Arthur Cynadinas,
Speaker 1: on what it takes to negotiate with a Trump administration
Speaker 1: and Australia's place in an America first world. It's Wednesday,
Speaker 1: March fifth, So Arthurs and Adidas. You served as Australia's
Speaker 1: ambassador to the United States from twenty twenty to twenty
Speaker 1: twenty three, which meant that for your first year in
Speaker 1: that role you were up close with the Trump administration.
Speaker 1: So could you take me back to that time to
Speaker 1: twenty twenty and to your first impressions of how that
Speaker 1: administration was working.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 3: So I got there in early February twenty twenty, about
Speaker 3: a month before COVID. I started to get around meet people.
Speaker 3: I met the President presenting my credentials. He knew a
Speaker 3: bit about Australia. It was clear that he had a
Speaker 3: fairly benign view of the place as far as I
Speaker 3: could tell, connections with people like Greg Norman and the like.
Speaker 3: The piece of advice I got from an ambassador who'd
Speaker 3: been serving there for about ten years already. He was
Speaker 3: from Southeast Asia. He said, Look, the way to do
Speaker 3: business with the administration, the Trump administration is get to
Speaker 3: know who at the White House is the point person
Speaker 3: on the particular issue, Go and do a with them,
Speaker 3: and then that's it. The point he was making was
Speaker 3: they were deal makers. A lot of them were from business,
Speaker 3: so they weren't necessarily into process in the way that
Speaker 3: you might otherwise expect in Washington, DC and.
Speaker 1: Those point people. The deal makers in this Trump administration
Speaker 1: include Elon Musk. He's wielding a lot of power and
Speaker 1: is becoming increasingly interventionist in politics around the world, in
Speaker 1: the UK, in Germany, here in Australia. He had that
Speaker 1: standoff with Australia's e Safety Commissioner not very long ago.
Speaker 1: So how do you think that this Australian government should
Speaker 1: be thinking about diplomacy specifically with Musk, given the level
Speaker 1: of influence that he's currently enjoying.
Speaker 3: Well, one of the things I've argued in stuff that
Speaker 3: I've written is that dealing with the Trump administration in
Speaker 3: Washington means also dealing with the operatives outside the government
Speaker 3: who have influence on the government. This may be longtime
Speaker 3: republicanyalists and lobbyists working in Washington itself. It means dealing
Speaker 3: with the business figures like Elon Musk who have influence
Speaker 3: over government. In Elon Musks, that influence is very direct
Speaker 3: because he's been given a very senior, non elected role,
Speaker 3: being in charge of the Department of Government Efficiency or DOGE.
Speaker 3: And you've got to get to know these circles because
Speaker 3: that's where you pick up information, learn about who may
Speaker 3: in certain circumstances have influence or not have influence, and
Speaker 3: understand also that the decision making model with someone like
Speaker 3: President Trump may vary from issue to issue. There will
Speaker 3: be issues where he will take advice. There are issues
Speaker 3: where he may listen to the last person in the room.
Speaker 3: There will be issues where he just goes with his gut,
Speaker 3: and then there will be issues where if he doesn't
Speaker 3: like someone, for example, that may well be a factor
Speaker 3: that colors his decision making, whether consciously or unconsciously. I
Speaker 3: think we see that a bit with someone like Zelenski.
Speaker 3: He clearly has not gone long with Zelenski in the past,
Speaker 3: going back to the time when he was impeached because
Speaker 3: of a phone call he made two presidents Zelenski, My.
Speaker 4: Call was perfect. The president yesterday of Ukraine said there
Speaker 4: was no pressure put on him whatsoever, none whatsoever, and
Speaker 4: he said it loud and clear for the pred what
Speaker 4: these guys are doing Democrats.
Speaker 3: My own view is that overwhelmingly the president makes up
Speaker 3: his own mind. He feels that he has at the
Speaker 3: moment the democratic equivalent of unfeathered power, and therefore he
Speaker 3: is going to push the envelope on all the issues
Speaker 3: on his agenda as far as he can. And there
Speaker 3: the courts, there, the Congress, theare the opposition, Democrats and
Speaker 3: others to try and stop him or claw him back.
Speaker 1: And you mentioned this sort of benign attitude toward Australia
Speaker 1: that you witnessed from Trump the first time around. Do
Speaker 1: you I think that that has changed at all? And
Speaker 1: more broadly, how do you think that Donald Trump views
Speaker 1: America's role and its relationship with its allies like Australia.
Speaker 3: I think he's still going to benign view of Australia,
Speaker 3: but I wouldn't be betting my house on him giving
Speaker 3: us an exemption on steel and aluminium. We'll find out
Speaker 3: soon enough, I guess. I just feel that with this
Speaker 3: administration they're going to go further in lifting tariffs than
Speaker 3: they did in the first administration. There's a very strong
Speaker 3: faction in the White House, led by people like Peter Navarro,
Speaker 3: the trade manufacturing advisor, who feel that a mistake in
Speaker 3: the first administration was to have too many exemptions from tariffs.
Speaker 3: They're clearly going to implement the tariffs on Mexico and Canada.
Speaker 3: They're raising the tariff on China further, and that potentially
Speaker 3: has impacts on inflation depending on the extent and duration
Speaker 3: of those increases in tariffs. So on economics and trade,
Speaker 3: it is business is business as far as Trump is concerned.
Speaker 3: Whether you're an ally or a potential adversary. Depending on
Speaker 3: how much he believes that America is being shortchanged in
Speaker 3: a particular relationship, he will take action. I don't think
Speaker 3: we're going to escape the effects of that, either directly
Speaker 3: or indirectly. We're in a world where increasingly it looks
Speaker 3: like America is acting as another great power, seeking to
Speaker 3: advance its own interest as defined by the President, and
Speaker 3: not seeing for itself an expansive role as the underwriter
Speaker 3: of the global order. They will argue that they've had
Speaker 3: too many freeloaders, that others should take up the cause.
Speaker 3: But the reality is America has had huge influence in
Speaker 3: the world by being the underwriter of that order, and
Speaker 3: that huge influence has been important to its own security.
Speaker 3: So I think, you know, if you take a more
Speaker 3: generous view of what the role of America has been
Speaker 3: in the world, they have benefited. It's enlightened self interest.
Speaker 3: Taking a more narrow view of American interests in the world,
Speaker 3: I don't think in the long term serves America well.
Speaker 1: After the break, rethinking the Australia America alliance in the
Speaker 1: age of.
Speaker 2: Trump, Hi, I'm Daniel James seven Am tells stories that
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Speaker 1: The Australians and the Bridge.
Speaker 2: Where you discussing discussing August with the Prome Minister the
Speaker 2: sun but what does that mean August the Australia US
Speaker 2: defense line, So well.
Speaker 3: We'll discussing there. We've had another great relationship and you
Speaker 3: have to deal.
Speaker 1: With arthursin Adinez. I want to talk about Australia's relationship
Speaker 1: with the US on security. Trump appeared to not know
Speaker 1: what UCUS stood for when he was asked about it recently.
Speaker 1: Did that surprise you and do you think that there
Speaker 1: are ramifications at all for the deal going forward?
Speaker 3: Well, well, people say that he can't remember all the acronyms,
Speaker 3: but personally I would have hoped that he would remember
Speaker 3: that acronym. I think he's broadly aware of the Defense
Speaker 3: Alliance and of the submarine deal, which is pillar one
Speaker 3: of orcus. He may not know all the technicalities and details.
Speaker 3: He may also have been told that we're investing three
Speaker 3: billion into the US submarine industrial base and a similar
Speaker 3: amount into the UK, so that we're more than carrying
Speaker 3: our weight when it comes to UCUS. His attitude to
Speaker 3: Augus ultimately, well, it depends if he wants to further
Speaker 3: build up the US submarine industrial base accelerate the construction
Speaker 3: of submarines. He may well say, well, I need more
Speaker 3: contributions from Australia in the UK towards this as well.
Speaker 3: I'm sure in all of that there's a capacity to
Speaker 3: do mutually beneficial things, but we have to remind him
Speaker 3: that this is a deal where ultimately we more than
Speaker 3: pay our own way, we augment the submarine capacity available
Speaker 3: in the region with the US to do more to
Speaker 3: counter potential adversaries up north.
Speaker 1: And in this context, how do you think that we
Speaker 1: should be thinking about our other relationships, particularly with China?
Speaker 1: As Trump introduces tariffs and sanctions, do you think that
Speaker 1: there will be pressure on us to fall into line.
Speaker 3: The pressure that could happen is if the Trump administration said, well,
Speaker 3: we want allies and partners to put similar trade and
Speaker 3: investment controls on China to the ones that we. The
Speaker 3: US administration have done tressured us on this in the past,
Speaker 3: but we had already been ahead of the game, for example,
Speaker 3: in saying that Huawei would not be part of our
Speaker 3: rollout of five G in the telecommunications space. I think
Speaker 3: our answer to this would be that we're happy to
Speaker 3: talk with the US and others about how we counter
Speaker 3: potential economic and trade coercion from China, but we clearly
Speaker 3: have an interest in maintaining a stable relationship with China,
Speaker 3: who is our main trading partner. Now, we're not about
Speaker 3: to abandon the US for China because of the Trump administration,
Speaker 3: but we will, I think increasingly also strengthen our relationships
Speaker 3: with other like minded countries in our own region and beyond,
Speaker 3: because I think it's important for like minded democracies do
Speaker 3: everything they can to stand together to support the global
Speaker 3: rules based order. And I hope that we can persuade
Speaker 3: the US that all of us standing together means we
Speaker 3: create the circumstance is particularly in Indo Pacific for more
Speaker 3: peace and stability.
Speaker 1: And in recent days we've heard the Prime Minister Anthony
Speaker 1: Alberanezi stress Australia's support for Ukraine and for President Zelenski,
Speaker 1: but he did decline to comment directly on how that
Speaker 1: confrontation at the Oval Office might affect Australia's relationship with
Speaker 1: the US, and similarly, he said he didn't want to
Speaker 1: offer a running commentary when he was asked about Trump's
Speaker 1: press conference in relation to Gaza Donald Trump, the US president,
Speaker 1: says the US will take over and own the Gaza strip.
Speaker 1: Do you support that position, Prime Minister.
Speaker 3: Well, I've said before though, I don't intend to have
Speaker 3: a running commentary on the President of the United States statements.
Speaker 1: So he's in a pretty tricky position. What are you
Speaker 1: observing about the relationship there and how would you handle
Speaker 1: this moment?
Speaker 3: Well, I think he's been careful and he's being diplomatic,
Speaker 3: and whether it's Albanese or Dutton, we can't be a
Speaker 3: commentator any and every time the US or the President
Speaker 3: of the US says something. I think Macron and Starma
Speaker 3: in their appearances in the Oval Office showed by the
Speaker 3: way they treated the President that it's a mixture of
Speaker 3: trying to be as friendly as possible, trying to gently
Speaker 3: coax in a particular direction, rather than seek to be
Speaker 3: confrontational or argumentative or seek to lecture the US president.
Speaker 3: I think as Prime Minister, mister Albanezi has to be
Speaker 3: pretty measured in his approach, and I think you'd find
Speaker 3: the same from Peter Dutton if he was the Prime minister.
Speaker 3: You have to be measured because we have our own
Speaker 3: issues to prosecute with the US and there's no point
Speaker 3: gratuitously insulting them, certainly not in public. If we want
Speaker 3: to discuss something and have it out with them about something,
Speaker 3: that's best done in private, and that's always been the
Speaker 3: best way to do it in relationships like this.
Speaker 1: It's interesting, though, because news at the moment is dominated
Speaker 1: by the disruption that Donald Trump is causing, in particular
Speaker 1: the way that he is upending foreign policy and old alliances.
Speaker 1: But here in Australia, as we get closer to an election,
Speaker 1: it doesn't really seem like this is an election issue.
Speaker 1: Do you think that it should form a bigger part
Speaker 1: of the debate.
Speaker 3: I think that Trump is a bit like the weather.
Speaker 3: He's there and sort of he'll loom over the election.
Speaker 3: And you've already seen commentary about who is better placed
Speaker 3: the Prime Minister or the opposition leader to deal with
Speaker 3: someone like Trump. Now, I don't know that the issue
Speaker 3: will explicitly form part of the election debate, but I
Speaker 3: think the issue that should be part of the election
Speaker 3: debate is if we are going into a world where
Speaker 3: we are dealing more with great powers who seek to
Speaker 3: carve out spheres of influence, whether it's the Western Hemisphere,
Speaker 3: Europe or in the Indo Pacific, what are the options
Speaker 3: for a middle power like Australia. And what I've argued
Speaker 3: in the past is, apart from seeking to continue to
Speaker 3: have good relationships with allies like the US, we also
Speaker 3: need to keep building up our relationships with other like
Speaker 3: minded countries. We need to be more doing more for
Speaker 3: our own defense. Our diplomacy in statecraft is as important
Speaker 3: as our military build up, because our diplomacy in statecraft
Speaker 3: goes to the way in which we build up relationships
Speaker 3: with other countries and thereby strengthen our capacity to work
Speaker 3: for common interest. I think it'd be good to have
Speaker 3: an election debate which focuses on what is Australia's grand
Speaker 3: strategy as we enter this potentially far more transactional world.
Speaker 3: Where we can no longer have the US potentially underwriding
Speaker 3: the global rules based order.
Speaker 1: Arthur Sinidinis, thank you so much for your time.
Speaker 3: Thanks Ruby.
Speaker 1: Also in the news today, Anthony Albanezi says his government
Speaker 1: is open to Australia playing a peacekeeping role in Ukraine,
Speaker 1: amid a push from Europe to send troops in the
Speaker 1: event of a peace steal. The comments come after the
Speaker 1: announcement that European leaders will draft a proposal to take
Speaker 1: to the United States following the hostile meeting between US
Speaker 1: President Donald Trump and Ukraine's Lord Miszelenski in the Oval Office. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: White House officials say the United States has paused all
Speaker 1: military aid to Ukraine and a federal court action has
Speaker 1: been launched against Environment Minister Tanya Plibasak, alleging she's failing
Speaker 1: to meet the duties required for a number of threatened species.
Speaker 1: Conservation group the Wilderness Society are arguing the minister has
Speaker 1: not complied with a legal requirement to create recovery plans
Speaker 1: for eleven species threatened with extinction, including the greater glider,
Speaker 1: the ghost bat, and the Tasmanian wedgetailed eagle. Am Ruby
Speaker 1: Jones seven Am see tomorrow