WEBVTT - Greenland: How far will Trump really go?

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<v Speaker 1>From the Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Kristanamie.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Wednesday, January twenty one, twenty twenty six. Anti Israel

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<v Speaker 1>author Randa Abdelphatar has scrubbed her social media profiles of

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<v Speaker 1>provocative posts. That includes a profile picture showing a Palestinian paraglider,

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<v Speaker 1>which she says she only posted because she wasn't aware

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<v Speaker 1>how many people had been killed by HERMAS militants on

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<v Speaker 1>October seven, twenty twenty three, but an investigation by The

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<v Speaker 1>Australian shows Abdelphatar used the profile picture for at least

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<v Speaker 1>five months after the attack where Harmas militants paraglided over

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<v Speaker 1>the border into southern Israel and slaughtered and kidnapped more

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<v Speaker 1>than twelve hundred Jews. That story is live right now

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<v Speaker 1>at the Australian dot com dot au. Donald Trump has

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<v Speaker 1>doubled down on his plan to acquire Greenland by any

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<v Speaker 1>means necessary. The President claims the United States needs to

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<v Speaker 1>buy or take the Danish territory to stop China or

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<v Speaker 1>Russia from moving in, but has the deal maker in

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<v Speaker 1>chief backed a loser. Today, Washington correspondent Joe Kelly joins

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<v Speaker 1>me to crunch the numbers. Donald Trump wants Greenland.

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<v Speaker 2>President Trump not backing down from his push to take

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<v Speaker 2>over Greenland.

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<v Speaker 1>Tensions arising as European allies joined together to blast President Trump.

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<v Speaker 2>Donald Trump denouncing Britain and calling Keirstom's plant great stupidity.

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<v Speaker 1>He really really wants Greenland.

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<v Speaker 2>I would like to make a deal, you know, the

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<v Speaker 2>easy way. But if we don't do it the easier way,

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<v Speaker 2>we're going to do it the hard way.

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<v Speaker 1>The US president says, America needs to acquire the Danish

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<v Speaker 1>territory for national security purposes.

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<v Speaker 2>And we'll have to defend Greenland if we don't do it,

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<v Speaker 2>or Russia will.

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<v Speaker 1>And he'll do anything to get it.

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<v Speaker 2>President Donald Trump using the power of tariffs to try

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<v Speaker 2>and get his way Greenland with military force on the table.

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<v Speaker 2>This is really an extraordinary situation that we're in right now.

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<v Speaker 1>Joe Kelly is The Australian's Washington correspondent.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't think anyone reasonably twelve months ago would have

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<v Speaker 2>thought that we'd be right here. And essentially Europe now

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<v Speaker 2>not only has to contend with Russia, but really the

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<v Speaker 2>key issue it has to contend with right now is

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<v Speaker 2>economic coercion from an ally and really the central plank

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<v Speaker 2>of the NATO alliance in the form of the United States.

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<v Speaker 2>So we're really in new territory here. And I would

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<v Speaker 2>argue there are very compelling reasons to think that the

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<v Speaker 2>United States under Donald Trump is really unpicking the foundations

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<v Speaker 2>of that post World War two international order.

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<v Speaker 1>So is this actually a good deal?

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<v Speaker 2>The short answer is no, Chris, and I think it's

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<v Speaker 2>a bad deal. In fact, I don't think it makes

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<v Speaker 2>very much sense at all, whether you're talking about strategically

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<v Speaker 2>or economically. I just think it's a bad deal. So

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<v Speaker 2>the first thing is it's expensive. There's a variety of

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<v Speaker 2>different estimates. On the high side, there are estimates over

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<v Speaker 2>a trillion dollars. On the low side, people are talking

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<v Speaker 2>about two hundred and fifty billion dollars, but some of

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<v Speaker 2>the estimates in the middle are about six hundred billion,

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<v Speaker 2>seven hundred billion, seven hundred and fifty billion. That's a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of money that's going to increase the debt. It's

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<v Speaker 2>going to increase annual deficits, it's going to increase interest

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<v Speaker 2>payments for the US, and it's really going to put

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<v Speaker 2>a squeeze on average every day Americans, and I don't

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<v Speaker 2>think they get very much in return. They don't get

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<v Speaker 2>very much in return because strategically, the United States doesn't

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<v Speaker 2>need to own Greenland. Strategically, there's a defense agreement signed

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<v Speaker 2>back in nineteen fifty one. They can have bases there,

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<v Speaker 2>it would just require them to cooperate. So I think

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<v Speaker 2>it's a bad deal in economic terms, and worst of all,

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<v Speaker 2>it invites retaliation from Europe, and it destroys the Transatlantic partnership,

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<v Speaker 2>which has been really so crucial in preserving stability in

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<v Speaker 2>Europe for so long. I think we're really on the

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<v Speaker 2>precipice of something big, something unpredictable, and we're only one

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<v Speaker 2>year in to Trump's four year term.

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<v Speaker 1>Ambassadors from twenty seven European Union member nations met in

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<v Speaker 1>Brussels this week thrash out their response to Trump's tariff

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<v Speaker 1>threats and the more concerning possibility he'll deploy the US

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<v Speaker 1>military to the Danish territory. Danish Foreign Minister Lars Luka

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<v Speaker 1>Rasmussen was clear, but yours are meeted crystal clear that

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<v Speaker 1>this is a red line, while British PM Kirstarmer said

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<v Speaker 1>Trump's tariff threats are a betrayal. The use of tariffs

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<v Speaker 1>against allies is completely wrong. A further face to face

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<v Speaker 1>meeting of European leaders has been slated for Thursday.

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<v Speaker 2>So this is going to be a really tricky decision

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<v Speaker 2>how Europe responds. Europe is big, There's a whole range

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<v Speaker 2>of different countries and they're not going to agree. Some

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<v Speaker 2>are going to be more inclined to try and keep

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<v Speaker 2>the US on side, Some are going to be more

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<v Speaker 2>inclined to try and do something. There are going to

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<v Speaker 2>be different positions, but in terms of what options are

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<v Speaker 2>available to them at the moment, the EU has not

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<v Speaker 2>yet ratified the trade deal that had struck with Donald Trump,

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<v Speaker 2>so they can pull that ratification. That means the US

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<v Speaker 2>doesn't get the lower tariffs that it was hoping. The

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<v Speaker 2>other thing is they can put on their own retaliatory

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<v Speaker 2>tariffs on over one hundred billion dollars worth of US goods.

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<v Speaker 2>But one of the options that French President Emmanuel Macron

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<v Speaker 2>has floated is the idea of this anti coercion instrument,

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<v Speaker 2>and this is referred to as the trade bazooka, and

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<v Speaker 2>effectively that gives the EU a range of different options.

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<v Speaker 2>More forceful export controls to put tariffs on services, restrict

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<v Speaker 2>intellectual property rights, and a suite of other measures. Now,

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<v Speaker 2>going one step beyond that, there is the possibility, very

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<v Speaker 2>unlikely this would be a nuclear option if Europe decided

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<v Speaker 2>to do it in offloading US treasuries. Now that won't

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<v Speaker 2>happen because that inflicts harm on Europe, but it holds

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<v Speaker 2>an all for a lot of US treasuries. The US

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<v Speaker 2>is vulnerable in that regard. The fact that we're discussing

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<v Speaker 2>some of these options, I think, however, is extraordinary and

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<v Speaker 2>it shows the strain, the pressure that's been put on

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<v Speaker 2>this transatlantic partnership, and really the fact that we're now

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<v Speaker 2>in uncharted territory.

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<v Speaker 1>So this isn't, as you said, a great deal economically,

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<v Speaker 1>it's not strategically necessary. So what is actually driving Donald

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<v Speaker 1>Trump in this issue? As much as you can try

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<v Speaker 1>to glean what's driving Donald Trump at any given time.

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<v Speaker 2>I think Donald Trump has a throwback view of the

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<v Speaker 2>world that the post World War two order really has

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<v Speaker 2>not worked to the advantage of America. That America has

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<v Speaker 2>suffered has been ripped off as a result of this system.

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<v Speaker 2>It's carried burdens on behalf of other countries, allies and partners,

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<v Speaker 2>and it shouldn't have to do that. He doesn't think

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<v Speaker 2>it's benefited the United States. He's got really a nineteenth

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<v Speaker 2>century view of the world. We're going back here to

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<v Speaker 2>the Monroe doctrine, the idea that the United States should

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<v Speaker 2>really worry about its piece of the globe and the

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<v Speaker 2>other big powers can worry about their piece of the globe.

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<v Speaker 2>So if you look at what he's doing through that lens,

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<v Speaker 2>things seem to make more sense. The adventurism in Venezuela,

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<v Speaker 2>the capture of Maduro, really the exercise in resource colonialism

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<v Speaker 2>in Venezuela, trying to get indefinite control over its oil sector,

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<v Speaker 2>encouraging the big US oil companies to go in. And

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<v Speaker 2>now this look towards Greenland. I think Trump would like

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<v Speaker 2>to have a legacy that he expanded the geographical territory

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<v Speaker 2>of the United States. So he'd be looking at things

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<v Speaker 2>like the Louisiana purchase back in eighteen o three, which

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<v Speaker 2>is an enormous purchase of land on the western side

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<v Speaker 2>of the Mississippi, and he'd be looking to carve out

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<v Speaker 2>a legacy on that scale. And this is how he

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<v Speaker 2>sees it being able to be realized.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up, what American voters think about Donald Trump's ambitions

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<v Speaker 1>in Europe. You mentioned earlier that everyday Americans don't get

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<v Speaker 1>a huge amount of anything out of a deal like

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<v Speaker 1>this if it does proceed. Donald Trump, of course, campaigned

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<v Speaker 1>on a platform of bringing manufacturing back to America, making

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<v Speaker 1>groceries cheaper, ultimately making life easier for Americans. Are voters

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<v Speaker 1>behind this push to acquire Greenland and are they even

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<v Speaker 1>aware of the possible implications for them if it does

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<v Speaker 1>go ahead.

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<v Speaker 2>I think Donald trump'sen risky political territory. He campaigned on

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<v Speaker 2>the idea of ending these sorts of foreign interventions forever wars,

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<v Speaker 2>and already his mega political constituency is fracturing. We've seen

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<v Speaker 2>that over a range of issues from foreign affairs to politics,

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<v Speaker 2>but we are now seeing a range of more aggressive

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<v Speaker 2>foreign policy decisions being made by a president who's really

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<v Speaker 2>under pressure over his domestic agenda. People are still concerned

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<v Speaker 2>that the cost of living hasn't come down enough. That

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<v Speaker 2>was one of the key things the president campaigned on

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<v Speaker 2>and the lead up to his election in twenty twenty four,

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<v Speaker 2>and now we're seeing a focus on ven aswell. Removing

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<v Speaker 2>dictators from power, possible strikes and interventions in Iran. He

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<v Speaker 2>already bombed the nuclear enrichment sites last year and now

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<v Speaker 2>these threats over Greenland. So I think he needs to

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<v Speaker 2>be very careful that he doesn't further lose support among

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<v Speaker 2>his Maga constituency, who, for the most part, were concerned

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<v Speaker 2>about these sorts of foreign escapades.

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<v Speaker 1>Joe Kelly is The Australian's Washington correspondent. You can read

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<v Speaker 1>all the latest on Greenland right now at the Australian

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<v Speaker 1>dot com dot au