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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed. The Reserve Bank signals it

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Speaker 1: is open to cutting interest rates if inflation is contained

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Speaker 1: and Donald Trump's trade wars hit growth. Moscow wants access

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Speaker 1: to Indonesian airfields, potentially basing Russian military planes within thirteen

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Speaker 1: hundred kilometers of Darwin, and GUZMANI Gomez is winning the

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Speaker 1: Mexican food wars. Plus Rebel Sport set to get a

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Speaker 1: major new competitor with UK based phrases pushing into the

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Speaker 1: local market. And Star Entertainment finally releases its half year

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Speaker 1: accounts and they aren't good. Welcome to Fear and Greed.

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Speaker 1: Daily business news for people who make their own decisions.

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Speaker 1: It is Wednesday, the sixteenth of April twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael Thompson, and good morning Sean Ayleman. Good morning, Michael,

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Speaker 1: sean newsletter newsletter. He just looked at me expectedly. Come on,

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Speaker 1: come on, I'm going to mention the newsletter because we've

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Speaker 1: just had such a response to it over the last

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Speaker 1: week and a half. Comes out every morning by six am,

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Speaker 1: and it is basically the everything you need to know

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Speaker 1: to arrive at your desk ready to go for the day.

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Speaker 1: And it only takes a few minutes to read, so

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Speaker 1: head along to Fear and Greed dot Com tod A.

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Speaker 1: You pop your email addressing and you will get the

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Speaker 1: next edition when it drops.

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Speaker 2: In the morning.

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Speaker 1: In the morning, what about an hour away? Actually yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 1: depending on what time you're listening to this Sean on

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Speaker 1: with the show the main story this morning. The Reserve

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Speaker 1: Bank is open to cutting interest rates in May after

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Speaker 1: the federal election, if inflation data continues its downward trend

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Speaker 1: and if Donald Trump and his trade was threatened growth.

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Speaker 2: In fact, the Reserve Bank expects its preferred measure of

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Speaker 2: underlying inflation to be within its two to three percent

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Speaker 2: target band when mass corter inflation figures are released in

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Speaker 2: two weeks time. The Central Bank released the minutes of

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Speaker 2: its meeting from two weeks ago yesterday that was held

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Speaker 2: immediately ahead of the Liberation Day Tariff's announcement from the

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Speaker 2: Reserve Bank says it did not cut the cash rate

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Speaker 2: last time round, and that cash rate, of course, is

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Speaker 2: used to set all other interest rates, because it judged

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Speaker 2: that it was not appropriate at this stage for monetary

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Speaker 2: policy to react to the potential risks that could move

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Speaker 2: outcomes in either direction.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: It went on to say, members observed that the main

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Speaker 2: meeting would be an opportune time to revisit the monetary

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Speaker 2: policy setting with the benefit of additional data about inflation.

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Speaker 2: They're talking about the number that comes out in two weeks,

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Speaker 2: the labor market we get that tomorrow, and trends and

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Speaker 2: economic activity, along with a fresh set of economic forecasts,

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Speaker 2: and further information about the likely evolution of global trade policies.

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Speaker 2: We've had the US trade shock, We're getting the labor

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Speaker 2: for staff. They say inflation figures will be within that

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Speaker 2: two to three percent range when that comes out in

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Speaker 2: a couple of weeks. Economists believe the central banks commentary

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Speaker 2: opens the way for a potential rate cut next month.

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Speaker 1: You've got to say, the Central Bank is always talking

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Speaker 1: about we need more data, we need to see more data.

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Speaker 1: This seems like the first time they actually say, hey,

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Speaker 1: at the next meeting, we're going to have enough data. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Well, yes, that's actually a really good point. They're actually

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Speaker 2: saying by May we will have enough data to make

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Speaker 2: a better call on whether to cut rates or not.

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Speaker 1: That's the big question, though, because it's all great for

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Speaker 1: economists out there to have all of this data. But

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Speaker 1: for you and for me, anyone with a mortgage, all

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Speaker 1: we want to know is whether we will get a

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Speaker 1: rate cut on May twenty. We had one in February,

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Speaker 1: When can we realistically expect the next one.

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Speaker 2: Reading the Minutes yesterday, I reckon there's a better than

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Speaker 2: even chance of a rate cut on May twenty. The

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Speaker 2: inflation figures out in two weeks will probably determine the result.

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Speaker 2: If they are good, then it's hard for the Reserve

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Speaker 2: Bank not too now. A few months ago, Reserve Bank

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Speaker 2: Governor Michelle Bullet was talking about moving towards the inflation rate.

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Speaker 2: Then she shifted to being wanting to be in the target,

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Speaker 2: and now she's talking about two and a half percent.

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Speaker 2: As I said in the news letter, a bit of

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Speaker 2: scrooge when it comes to interest rates, Michelle Bullock. But

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Speaker 2: they're kind of getting there. And if those inflation figures

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Speaker 2: in two weeks suggest that, you know it is heading

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Speaker 2: towards that two and a half percent, really hard for

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Speaker 2: the Reserve Bank not to do it. At bottom line,

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Speaker 2: I reckon there's a very good chance of a rate cut.

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Speaker 1: In May, a very good chance. Indeed, that's exciting, It

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Speaker 1: is exciting, Okay, moving away from the reserve bank. Now

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Speaker 1: shown Russian military planes. That's about as far from the

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Speaker 1: reserve bank, isn't it Anyway? These planes get there quickly. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: so they could. They could be based within thirteen hundred

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Speaker 1: kilometers of Duh and after Moscow requested access to Indonesian airfields.

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Speaker 2: Very true, Michael, but it's not going to happen. Australian

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Speaker 2: officials were scrambling last night and yesterday afternoon when the

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Speaker 2: James Defense News website quoted multiple unidentified Indonesian government sources

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Speaker 2: saying that Russia had launched an official request to base

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Speaker 2: several long range aircraft at Manua Air Force in Papular Province,

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Speaker 2: Indonesia's easternmost territory. Now. The request followed a visit by

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Speaker 2: one of Russia's top security officials to Indonesia in February.

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Speaker 2: According to the Finn Review, Russia has been focused on

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Speaker 2: its war in Ukraine, but it's also stepped up its

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Speaker 2: military exercises and Pacific in recent months, including holding bilateral

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Speaker 2: naval drills with the Indonesian forces in the Java Sea.

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Speaker 2: We thought for a while there that was going to happen,

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Speaker 2: but late last night an Indonesian official. The Defense Minister

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Speaker 2: spoke to Richard Miles, our Defense minister, and said that

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Speaker 2: they had not given the green light to it, though interestingly,

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Speaker 2: the Defense minister from Indonesia didn't actually deny that the

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Speaker 2: request had been made.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: Earlier in the day, Prime Minister Anthony Albanize, who was

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Speaker 2: caught on the hot really he said at the time

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Speaker 2: they were trying the governments trying to ascertain information on

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Speaker 2: the report. Peter Dutton said he'd asked the government for

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Speaker 2: an official briefing. Generally, generally on these issues, issues of

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Speaker 2: international or national defense, they're not particularly political. Both sides

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Speaker 2: tend to work together and so it probably won't become

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Speaker 2: a big issue in this election campaign.

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Speaker 1: Okay, housing really has taken sender stage though in the

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Speaker 1: election campaign with both leaders they were really focusing on

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Speaker 1: the issue. Yesterday.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, they surely, I mean clearly both think it's a winner,

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Speaker 2: or at least their policies are winners.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: Economists are in broad agreement that both a five percent

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Speaker 2: deposit for first home buyers as the government's proposing and

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Speaker 2: tax deductibility of mortgage payments for first home buyers as

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Speaker 2: a coalition is recommending both of them would push up

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Speaker 2: the price of homes. But it's sort of self evident

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Speaker 2: because when you make buying house easier, you're necessarily going

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Speaker 2: to put pressure on prices outside housing. Opposition lander petted

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Speaker 2: Dutton said that his party is not shying away from

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Speaker 2: nuclear power. Anthony ALBERNIZI was pushing Labour's healthcare credentials. What

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Speaker 2: I did? He did yesterday admit that the elections May three,

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Speaker 2: And someone said, what are you going to do on

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Speaker 2: May four, good day after the election, and he said,

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Speaker 2: no matter what, hell be wear watching Star Wars.

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Speaker 1: Do you know what may the fourth? May the fourth

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Speaker 1: be with you?

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Speaker 2: That is amazing, very very kind of reference to eighties

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Speaker 2: and nineties culture.

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Speaker 1: Oh my god, it's speaking to me. I'll tell you

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Speaker 1: what that is. Something Sean Worth. A quick mention of

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Speaker 1: what's coming up at midday today. It is our bonus episode.

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Speaker 1: It comes out once a week. It is called the

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Speaker 1: aptly titled Politics and Stuff. And I have a feeling

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Speaker 1: that I'm going to mention on the episode today.

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Speaker 2: It will today's episode. We're just going to check in

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Speaker 2: on where the battle is at the moment, how they're performing,

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Speaker 2: the biggest issues they're pushing and what it is, politics

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Speaker 2: and stuff is kind of our attempt that once a week,

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Speaker 2: if you're not interested interested in politics, just listen to

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Speaker 2: this once a week you kind of just get a

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Speaker 2: taste for what's going on and go from there.

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Speaker 1: It's enough to get by, that's right. Indeed, all right,

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Speaker 1: plenty still to get through. Sean will be back in

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Speaker 1: a moment with the rest of the day's business news.

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Speaker 1: Sean Guzmani Gomez is winning the Mexican food Wars in Australia,

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Speaker 1: with the owner of the Taco Bell franchise locally putting

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Speaker 1: the brand up for.

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Speaker 2: Sale ASX listed. Colin's Foods says it will sell its

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Speaker 2: rights to the brand in Australia or closed stores. A

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Speaker 2: strategic review found that Tarco Bell, not Taco Bell, but

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Speaker 2: Taco Bell. Michael doesn't have the brand to cut through

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Speaker 2: in Australia and Collins doesn't want to invest in it.

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Speaker 2: Go and say it.

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Speaker 1: I was just going to say that. For so long

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Speaker 1: we didn't know whether Goosman was going to win or

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Speaker 1: Taco Bell was going to win. They're in I suppose

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Speaker 1: a Mexican stand off. Sorry, I couldn't quite deliver there

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Speaker 1: could I.

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Speaker 2: Colin's Foods will instead expand its network off KFC stores

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Speaker 2: aggressively in Germany, where it has its rights, and open

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Speaker 2: more stores in Australia. It will write off though more

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Speaker 2: than thirty million dollars from its business in the Netherlands.

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Speaker 2: It's the KFC business, where it runs sixty two stores.

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Speaker 2: Colins operates two hundred and eighty five of the seven

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Speaker 2: to fifty KFC stores in Australia. Up to ten Sea

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Speaker 2: stores are planned to open every year. It also runs

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Speaker 2: twenty seven Taco Bell stores in Queens and Victoria, Western Australia.

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Speaker 2: They are actually a few independents as well, but broadly

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Speaker 2: Colins has given up the fight in Mexican third to Goozman.

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Speaker 1: It's really quite interesting seeing Colins running KFC in Germany

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Speaker 1: and the Netherlands, just as you see Domino's running pizza

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Speaker 1: in those European markets.

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Speaker 2: Australia's too fast food real well.

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Speaker 1: Apparently we do. British retailer Phrases is making an aggressive

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Speaker 1: porstion into the sport and fitness goods market, planning to

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Speaker 1: open more than one hundred sports direct store here.

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Speaker 2: It's a direct attack on rebel sport and part of

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Speaker 2: Phraser's efforts to create a global sporting retailer. Phrases listed

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Speaker 2: in the uk an's brands including Slazenger. Everlast it also

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Speaker 2: plans to up at stake in shoe retailer Accent, which

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Speaker 2: owns Hype DC and Platypus, to just under twenty percent now.

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Speaker 2: The plan is that Accent will actually operate the sports

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Speaker 2: Direct stores in Australia then pay a royalty to Phrases

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Speaker 2: based on sales. Phrase is one of the world's largest

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Speaker 2: owners and retailers of sports, premium and luxury brands, more

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Speaker 2: than fifteen hundred stores in thirty countries. The retailer, which

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Speaker 2: last year reported revenue of about eleven billion dollars, brings

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Speaker 2: global scale and brand relationships to Accent or make a

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Speaker 2: big difference. It was founded by a billionaire guy called

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Speaker 2: Mike Ashley, former own or a football club Newcastle United,

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Speaker 2: opened his first sports store in nine to eighty two

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Speaker 2: with ten thousand pounds from his parents doing deals Ever since,

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Speaker 2: I love this story. Do you know why? Because why, well,

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Speaker 2: you know my children they pay a lot of sport.

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Speaker 2: That means you're spending a lot of time at rebel.

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Speaker 2: I want competition, You want competition?

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Speaker 1: Ye fatally sense. Now Star Entertainment has finally released its

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Speaker 1: accounts for the second half of last year, and the

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Speaker 1: gaming group lost more than three hundred million dollars on

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Speaker 1: the back of falling revenue and high regulatory costs.

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Speaker 2: The half year result had been delayed until Starr found

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Speaker 2: a rescue package. Now it had happened last week when

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Speaker 2: US based Bally's Corporation provided three hundred million dollars to

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Speaker 2: the company. Once complete, Ballets will control Star. In fact,

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Speaker 2: Ballet's and Boost Matheson who's another big shareholder, they'll account

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Speaker 2: for about sixty percent of shares. The accounts released yesterday

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Speaker 2: showed revenues fell sixteen percent, which Star said was related

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Speaker 2: to the introduction of mandatory cards to play in Sydney,

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Speaker 2: and lost the market share on the Gold Coast. Despite

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Speaker 2: Ballet's rescue office, Star said there remains material uncertainty regarding

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Speaker 2: the group's ability to continue as a going concern now.

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Speaker 2: Some of the key initiatives critical to the group's liquidity

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Speaker 2: outlook includes completing the Bally Strategic and vestment, securing the

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Speaker 2: proceeds from the sale of the Sydney Events center and

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Speaker 2: completing the transaction entered into with its joint venture partners

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Speaker 2: to exit Queen's Wholf bottom line. With this Star Entertainment,

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Speaker 2: it'll probably make it through. I think that's more likely

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Speaker 2: than not now, but it has really lost ground in

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Speaker 2: terms of that gaming business.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, what a roller coaster. Just quickly, How did local

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Speaker 1: markets go yesterday?

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Speaker 2: What almost say was boring now we have had.

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Speaker 1: After last week and before would be boring.

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Speaker 2: It was wonderful, up slightly basically, healthcare stocks did well,

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Speaker 2: consumer staples taking property companies not so well, and the

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Speaker 2: banks did with the big banks did well, Big minus

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Speaker 2: did well, you know, all and all pretty steady day,

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Speaker 2: which we haven't had for quite some time.

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Speaker 1: It's nice to be dull. International markets.

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Speaker 2: Oil slightly high but still trading around multi year lies.

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Speaker 2: Good for petrol prices, Michael Iron. All prices had been

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Speaker 2: falling past couple of sessions. They're rising again. Ossie dollar

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Speaker 2: on fire against the greenback, up to sixty four US

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Speaker 2: since my word, long term average with the Aussies between

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Speaker 2: seventy and seventy two cents, So when we're excited that

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Speaker 2: it's sixty four cents, really says something going wrong? Remember them?

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Speaker 1: Oh, we used to talk about them a fair bit,

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Speaker 1: didn't we.

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Speaker 2: Bitcoin's training around eighty six thousand US a year. Now,

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Speaker 2: for the past six weeks, bitcoin's been in that eighty

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Speaker 2: thousand eighty five thousand range. It's actually doing all right.

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Speaker 1: Isn't it remarkable that equities have been super exciting and

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Speaker 1: it's actually Bitcoin that's been quite dull.

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Speaker 2: Yes, that's well said.

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Speaker 1: That's good observation there, Michael turning to International News now

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Speaker 1: showing Donald Trump's administration has frozen more than two billion

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Speaker 1: US dollars that's about three point one billion Aussie in

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Speaker 1: federal funding for Harvard University. Just happened just hours after

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Speaker 1: the school rejected his demands that it makes deep policy

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Speaker 1: changes on diversity.

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Speaker 2: Yes, it's been a running story, the relationship between universities

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Speaker 2: and Donald Trump's administration. A US Education Department task force

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Speaker 2: on combating Anti Semitism said in a statement it was

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Speaker 2: freezing two point two billion US in multi year grants

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Speaker 2: about sixty million in multi year contract value to Harvard University.

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Speaker 2: According to Reuter's the move marks a new level of

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Speaker 2: contentiousness between the administration and US universities, which it accuses,

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Speaker 2: as in the Trump administration accuses the universities of being

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Speaker 2: captured by the extreme left. Trump's administration is phrase and

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Speaker 2: hundreds of millions of dollars in federal funding for numerous universities.

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Speaker 2: Harvard rejected demands from the Trump administration a couple of

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Speaker 2: days ago that in order to receive funding, it must

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Speaker 2: end diversity efforts and take other steps that the university

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Speaker 2: said would stifle intellectual freedoms and faculty and students.

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Speaker 1: Sales at the world's biggest luxury brand, LVMH fell more

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Speaker 1: than expected during the March quarter, sean highlighting the tough

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Speaker 1: time that luxury goods companies are having.

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Speaker 2: So paris list at lvmhh's the first major fashion house

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Speaker 2: to report March quarter results, so everyone was waiting on

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Speaker 2: this one. Organic sales in l vmh's Fashion and Leather

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Speaker 2: Goods division, which includes Louis Vaton and Kristen Dull, fell

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Speaker 2: five percent to about ten billion euros in the first

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Speaker 2: three months of the year unless it actually expected a

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Speaker 2: small increase too, because luxury markets, of course US and

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Speaker 2: China real concerns that the trade ward will actually decimate

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Speaker 2: the industry. Sales in Asia ex Japan we're down about

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Speaker 2: eleven percent. US are off about three percent. That's ahead

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Speaker 2: of the tariffs, so who knows where they end up.

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Speaker 2: Luxury goods buyers often, well they're rich, aren't they. They

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Speaker 2: can absorb those price increases. The fear is though, the

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Speaker 2: tariffs in particular, that push prices up so much they

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Speaker 2: just too high to handle.

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Speaker 1: All right, Up next, Sean is the Fear and Greed

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Speaker 1: Daily Interview. Today you're speaking with Don Desuza, who is

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Speaker 1: head of Investments at HSBC Australia. Really it is a

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Speaker 1: reflection of the volatility that we've had in markets recently

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Speaker 1: and how well Ozzie investors have handled it.

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Speaker 2: Yes, how will retail investors handle it? So this is

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Speaker 2: the fourth year the HSBC Investment Report. It looks at

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Speaker 2: how retail investors are managing the situation now was actually

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Speaker 2: done before Liberation Day tariffs. What it shows though that

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Speaker 2: Ossie retail investors had put in place strategies to handle volatility,

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Speaker 2: and that's really really encouraging. For example, they held more cash,

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Speaker 2: they thought about whether or not to hold US stocks

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Speaker 2: or not, and it just shows just how clued in

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Speaker 2: many of these investors are and were ahead of the

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Speaker 2: turmoil of recent weeks.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a good one. It is coming up next

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Speaker 1: Sean in the Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast

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Speaker 1: platform or at Fearangreed dot com dot au, which is

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Speaker 1: where you're signing up today for the Fear and Greed

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Speaker 1: daily newsletter out every morning, out every morning by six

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Speaker 1: av you say that, you genuinely mean it. I can

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Speaker 1: see it in your face, see it in your eyes.

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Speaker 1: That's the website. I'll put a link in the show

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Speaker 1: notes as well. Thank you, Sean, Thank you Michael. It

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Speaker 1: is Wednesday, the sixteenth of April twenty twenty five. Make

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Speaker 1: sure you're following the podcast and please join us online

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Speaker 1: on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson

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Speaker 1: and that with Fear and Greed. Have a great day.