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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use. Today,

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Speaker 1: BHP becomes the largest company on the ASX, overtaking the

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Speaker 1: Conwealth Bank. Business confidence picks up ahead of today's all

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Speaker 1: important inflation data and cotality forecasts, The hottest property prices

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six, plus Teal MP, Monnie Cryan's take

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Speaker 1: on naming heat waves and the Donald Trump mean coin tanks.

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Speaker 1: It is Wednesday, the twenty eighth of January twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael, Sean.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning BHP has become the largest

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Speaker 1: company on the Australian share market. There's the shift to

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Speaker 1: miners away from previous market leader Commonwealth Bank gathers pace.

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Speaker 1: We've been watching and waiting for this to happen for

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Speaker 1: a little while now.

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Speaker 2: Very excit. I mean yeah, they're about the same, but

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Speaker 2: at one point yesterday BHP was quite a bit larger.

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Speaker 2: While the likes of bh P four, Escu Metals, Rio

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Speaker 2: Tinto and gold miners Northern Star and Evolution Mining have

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Speaker 2: surged over the past twelve months, the four big bank

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Speaker 2: share of the ASX two hundred has dipped below twenty

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Speaker 2: five percent for the first time in several years. Now

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Speaker 2: the top twenty five companies comprise big four banks plus Macquarie,

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Speaker 2: the five miners are just mentioned, plus energy giants Woodside

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Speaker 2: in Santos, We're up to twelve. There. There's four big retailers.

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Speaker 2: Where's Farmers, which of course owns Bunnings, Woollies Coals and

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Speaker 2: Sigma Healthcare, which of course owns Chemist Warehouse. There's two

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Speaker 2: pure play healthcare companies, CSL and Resme. Now we talk

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Speaker 2: plenty about tech stocks and property companies in this country,

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Speaker 2: yet top twenty five stocks only one property company, Goodman,

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Speaker 2: and it's been one of the worst performers over the

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Speaker 2: last four months, and only one tech company Aria, which

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Speaker 2: is like an online real estate portal. Of course, there's

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Speaker 2: also Telstrom, Tolrod, Goop, Transurban Gaming, Machine, Men Factory, Aristocrat,

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Speaker 2: Leisure palette Maker, Branbles my personal favorite, of course, and

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Speaker 2: Insure a QBE. It just demonstrates the changing nature of

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Speaker 2: the market and the diminishing importance of financials. Now, five

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Speaker 2: years ago CSO was the biggest company. It was replaced

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Speaker 2: by BHP, then Commonwealth Bank overtook BHP in twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 2: Commonwealth banks rise six months ago. Remember it's fifty percent

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Speaker 2: bigger than BHP was just unsustainable. It has come back

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Speaker 2: to the pack. The lesser importance of financials ain't a

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Speaker 2: bad thing, notwithstanding as a former banking writer, I have

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Speaker 2: a total bias to them. However, it is good that

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Speaker 2: they're not as dominant on the ASEX twenty twenty five

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Speaker 2: one hundred two hundred. Being less reliant on the banking

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Speaker 2: sector means you get greater investor diversification, and because of

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Speaker 2: the growth of ETFs passive investing, it's just a bit

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Speaker 2: harder sometimes to come across greater diversification. So this is

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Speaker 2: a good thing. Michael, this is good.

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Speaker 1: And Sean, I just want to make one click quick

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Speaker 1: clarification that when you say that Brambles is your personal favorite,

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Speaker 1: that's not investment advice. That's you just love it because

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Speaker 1: of the number of palettes that it makes and loses

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Speaker 1: and keeps track of around the world.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, just a company that makes palettes. I mean, I

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Speaker 2: mean toll Road, I mean Tolert's boring, but like there's

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Speaker 2: a lot of work in that, but a palette, Yes,

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Speaker 2: Hammer a few nails off your gale.

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Speaker 1: It feels so simple. Yeah, they've built quite the empire

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Speaker 1: out of this. Now, Sean, how important, right is the

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Speaker 1: ASX two hundred in global terms? Obviously it's it's very

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Speaker 1: important to local investors, But is it a good place

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Speaker 1: to put your money, particularly given I suppose how easy

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Speaker 1: it is now to invest offshore?

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Speaker 2: As you say, we're not an investment podcast, so this

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Speaker 2: is not investment advice. Go and see a financial advisor.

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Speaker 2: But a way to put that into perspective, the Tatle

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Speaker 2: market capitalization of the ASEX two hundred is two point

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Speaker 2: six trillion. That's about seventy seven percent of the market.

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Speaker 2: So the Tattle market the Australian Securities Exchange with about

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Speaker 2: three point four trillion dollars sounds like a lot. If

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Speaker 2: the whole Aussie market was listed on the S and

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Speaker 2: P five hundred and Wall Street, it would be just

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Speaker 2: the seventh largest company. Nvidia, the biggest company, is actually

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Speaker 2: about twice the size of all of the AX put together.

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Speaker 2: Another way of looking at it, Depending on the measure,

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Speaker 2: the AX is about one and a half two percent

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Speaker 2: of global equities. Wall Street is seventy two percent. So

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Speaker 2: Michael in other words, no, we are not very big.

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Speaker 2: A minno, then a minno, I think we go minno.

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Speaker 2: I think we can go mino. Big challenge though, because

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Speaker 2: we're all paying twelve percent of our wages in a

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Speaker 2: super there's this massive pool of money that needs investing,

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Speaker 2: and it's not like you know it's going to be

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Speaker 2: cut off anytime soon. It keeps growing. A few issues here.

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Speaker 2: The numbers of companies on the ASEX is shrinking. So

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Speaker 2: the end of December it was nineteen fifteen. Twelve months

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Speaker 2: earlier was about two thousand. The numbers are listening. It

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Speaker 2: sort of explains why institutional shoulders they're getting all this money,

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Speaker 2: not as many places to invest in Australia, no one day,

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Speaker 2: they're putting so much into overseas markets. It also explains

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Speaker 2: why private markets, I think private equity, venture capital, private credit,

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Speaker 2: real estate, infrastructure, they're doing really, really well in Australia

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Speaker 2: because people need to find places to put their money

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Speaker 2: all at all. It's just fascinating to watch the evolution

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Speaker 2: of the equities and then financial markets more generally, with

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Speaker 2: this weight of money going at it. This sick locality

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Speaker 2: of the big miners doing really well Commonwealth being having

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Speaker 2: boomed and now totally come off the boil. The other

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Speaker 2: banks are actually doing pretty well. Fascinating to watch.

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Speaker 1: When we started this whole story by talking about BHP

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Speaker 1: and it's big day yesterday, and I'm assuming there would

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Speaker 1: be celebrations at the ASX. We were discussing yesterday whether

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Speaker 1: there would be balloons, party poppers, all that kind of thing.

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Speaker 1: When suddenly BHP takes over. Is the biggest, the biggest company.

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Speaker 1: But broadly yesterday ASEX, where do we actually finish up yesterday?

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Speaker 1: Put the party poppers to one side.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, a very strong day, up nearly one percent to

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Speaker 2: eighty nine hundred and forty two points, sitting about two

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Speaker 2: percent or a little less than two percent off the

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Speaker 2: all time record of last year. The miners led the way,

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Speaker 2: so BITCH was actually about two and a half percent yesterday.

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Speaker 2: Other big caps jumping that much. West Farmers will quarry

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Speaker 2: in Telstra, So you call that broad based rally, Michael Yep.

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Speaker 2: Gold and silver miners, they're doing pretty well. Gold pushed

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Speaker 2: above fifty one hundred US dollars an ounce yesterday. Silver's

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Speaker 2: run has been even more extraordinary. The price of silver

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Speaker 2: has quadrupled. In the past twelve months, up nearly ninety

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Speaker 2: percent this year. Why precious metals running so hard? So

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Speaker 2: pleas you didn't ask safe haven status. We talk about that,

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Speaker 2: but there's also these fears around the world that governments

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Speaker 2: are so indebted and there are fears of inflation, that

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Speaker 2: holding something outside currency is actually a good thing. Michael,

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Speaker 2: why are you nodding your shaking your head at me?

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Speaker 1: Sometimes I wonder whether I'm even needed here, Sean. Now

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Speaker 1: you've just you just started asking yourself in the questions

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Speaker 1: that you want to be if you're actually quite the

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Speaker 1: politician in that respect. I started it on one question

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Speaker 1: and you just asked the question that you wanted to.

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Speaker 2: Let me say this, well, I will say to get

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Speaker 2: you back interested again. Osie dollar sixteen o one and a

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Speaker 2: half U wes sense Oh.

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Speaker 1: Music to my ears, Sean. We'll be back in a

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Speaker 1: moment with the rest of the day's business news. Sean.

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Speaker 1: Business conditions and confidence rebounded last month, suggesting growth momentum

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Speaker 1: was solid into the end of twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 2: The National Australia Bank monthly Survey show's confidence up one

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Speaker 2: point to plus three, which is slightly below its long

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Speaker 2: term average conditions are up two points to plus nine

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Speaker 2: above the long term average. All states are now reporting

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Speaker 2: positive conditions and confidence. This is good news. Of course,

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Speaker 2: we wanted an economy that's chugging along. Business. This is confident,

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Speaker 2: liking how they're operating. But it also adds weight to

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Speaker 2: the argument that maybe the Reserve Bank will need to

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Speaker 2: lift interest rates. We'll find out much more about that

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Speaker 2: this morning eleven thirty am when the ABS releases its

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Speaker 2: December quarter inflation figures.

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Speaker 1: It was chugging along a term that you learned while

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Speaker 1: you're working at the RBA.

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Speaker 2: Sean Yeah, macro one oh one, and then it morphed

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Speaker 2: into the Reserve Bank day, chugging along. Well that tended

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Speaker 2: to be Friday night drinks.

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Speaker 1: But anyway, yeah, well we might park that one. Queensland,

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Speaker 1: Western Australia and South Australia SEAN have been identified as

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Speaker 1: the hottest property markets for twenty twenty six, while high

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Speaker 1: prices set to somewhat constrain New South Wales and Victoria.

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Speaker 2: Catalities annual survey of real estate agents, bankers and lenders

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Speaker 2: and others in the property sector. So the government policy,

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Speaker 2: including the First Home Guarantee, has spurred increased activity in

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Speaker 2: the market. Now this group real estate agents, bankers and lenders,

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Speaker 2: others in the property sectors. You can us them can'try

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Speaker 2: when it comes to thol absolutely, eighty seven percent of

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Speaker 2: those respondents said prices will rise, three point five percent

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Speaker 2: said they'll fall, and they're not doing much of it.

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Speaker 2: That's three and a half percent about all. Half the

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Speaker 2: respondents expect price growth above five percent. Causalities December Home

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Speaker 2: Value Index shows how values rose across capital cities and

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Speaker 2: regional markets. I mean every capital city, every regional market.

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Speaker 2: Last year. The medium was eight point six percent, so

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Speaker 2: it was a cracking year for housing last year. Sentiment

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Speaker 2: in New South Wales does rain positive, though increasingly conditional

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Speaker 2: due to higher prices and stretched serviceability. You've got to

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Speaker 2: repay those loans. That makes New South Wales more sensitive

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Speaker 2: to interest rate increases than other states. Victoria continues to lag.

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Speaker 2: Let's about money or less about costs because it actually

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Speaker 2: was the weakest state in twenty twenty five. People think

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Speaker 2: price will grow, but is a confidence issue there, influenced

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Speaker 2: by higher property taxes, reduced in best of participation, and

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Speaker 2: softer population flows.

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Speaker 1: O Now Oil and Gas group Santos has shipped the

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Speaker 1: first LNG cargo from its delayed Barossa venture in the

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Speaker 1: team Orse. This is a significant milestone for the projects,

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Speaker 1: which cost a hefty six point one billion dollar Sean.

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Speaker 2: Yes, but the great thing about this it's actually on budget.

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Speaker 2: Like how one of these big projects that actually comes

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Speaker 2: in what they originally planned. It was going to cost

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Speaker 2: very rare and it was about six months within its

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Speaker 2: planned startup day, so it neatly wasn't delayed. HOLI are

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Speaker 2: you amazing?

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Speaker 1: I hope the project manager got a decent out of that.

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Speaker 2: I'm with you. The cargo depart of the day on

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Speaker 2: LNG plant in the Northern Territory on as day before

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Speaker 2: Australia Day. It's being delivered to Japan. Chief Executive of

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Speaker 2: Santos Kevin Gallagher said the inaugural cargo marked an outstanding

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Speaker 2: achievement for a project of its scale and complexity. I'm

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Speaker 2: with him. Santos's fifture center of the Bross adventure, along

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Speaker 2: with Korean and Japanese interests.

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Speaker 1: Now speaking of Santos, Sean TLMP Monique Ryan, whose seat

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Speaker 1: of Kuyong in Melbourne pushed beyond forty degrees yesterday, It's

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Speaker 1: made a somewhat humorous and very pointed suggestion about climate change,

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Speaker 1: name heat waves after the oil and gas companies.

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Speaker 2: Ryan argued that heat waves, which are more common in

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Speaker 2: recent years, should be treated like other extreme weather events

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Speaker 2: so people can help them consider their cause. Extreme heat

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Speaker 2: wave stresses the heart, she said, destabilizes diabetes, worsens respiratory conditions,

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Speaker 2: and intensifies mental health incidents. In fact, Nik Ryan, who

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Speaker 2: is a medical doctor, Doctor Ryan says heat waves are

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Speaker 2: bigger killers than fuds, storms and bushfires combined. I quote her,

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Speaker 2: when it comes to climate hazards, people like faster when

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Speaker 2: they immediately grasp what's at risk. Declaring a category four

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Speaker 2: heat waves Santos or a heat wave woodside would be

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Speaker 2: more salient than communicating a temperature spike. A bit rough

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Speaker 2: on the energy giants, to be honest, but amusing.

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Speaker 1: Nonetheless, Yeah, yeah, though I don't think anybody listening in

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Speaker 1: Victoria right now would have been unaware that there was

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Speaker 1: a heat wave sweeping through yesterday, considering it was setting

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Speaker 1: new temperature records for the state. Quite extraordinary. Turning to

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Speaker 1: international news now, US President Donald Trump has signaled a

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Speaker 1: shift in his administration's immigration crackdown as he seeks to

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Speaker 1: quell the growing anger over the killing of a man

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Speaker 1: by federal agents in Minnesota over the weekend.

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Speaker 2: Yesterday, the President deployed Border Czar Tom Homan to Minnesota

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Speaker 2: in a move that pretty much seen as a rebuke

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Speaker 2: of Christie Name, the Homeland Security Secretary. Name has been

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Speaker 2: the person that's overseeing Trump's aggressive campaign to detain and

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Speaker 2: deport immigrants. The President also dialed down his rhetoric about

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Speaker 2: Democrats in Minnesota, said it, speaking to the governor Tim Wills,

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Speaker 2: they're on the similar wavelength, was the way that the

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Speaker 2: President put it. He's previously described Will's as grossly incompetent

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Speaker 2: in a stupid low IQ governor, so he certainly had

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Speaker 2: changed his view. According to the Fteam, the shooting of

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Speaker 2: a thirty seven year old intensive care nurse by federal

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Speaker 2: agents over the week and as prompted outrage on both

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Speaker 2: sides of politics. The incident, of course, came less than

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Speaker 2: three weeks after Immigration and Customs enforcement agents shot and

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Speaker 2: killed Renee Nicole Good in the same city. Recent opinion

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Speaker 2: poll suggest the public approval rating for the president's immigration

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Speaker 2: enforcement tactics is at an all time low. We've got

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Speaker 2: midterm elections coming up in November. So clearly Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: has decided to tone down the rhetoric. And I mean

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Speaker 2: a lot to play out in it, but yeah, good news.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And you were talking yesterday morning about the fact

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Speaker 1: that a lot of Republicans were starting to voice concerns

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Speaker 1: over that, and then the afternoon report yesterday I was

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Speaker 1: talking about the fact that even the NRA, which is

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Speaker 1: usually a very very staunch supporter of the Trump administration,

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Speaker 1: has voiced concerns over it. And so clearly a lot

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Speaker 1: of things influencing are the President's decision to back down

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Speaker 1: on this one. Speaking of Donald Trump, Sean his meme

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Speaker 1: coin has tumbled more than no. Twenty percent in price

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Speaker 1: from its peak a year ago, and a sign of

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Speaker 1: just how the excitement around the president's somewhat controversial cryptocurrency

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Speaker 1: is pretty much evaporated.

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Speaker 2: So was launched ahead of his inauguration in January last year,

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Speaker 2: the dollar Trump meme coin went from dollar twenty to

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Speaker 2: seventy five dollars and thirty five cents according to coin

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Speaker 2: markets Cap data today, so seventy five bucks today's training

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Speaker 2: at four dollars eighty three. A couple of days after

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Speaker 2: the dollar Trump coin was launched, his wife Millenia, also

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Speaker 2: debut a meme coin price, so that one jumped to

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Speaker 2: a high of thirteen seventy three now training about seventeen cents,

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Speaker 2: fall of ninety nine percent from its peak. The Trump's

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Speaker 2: cryptoactivities have generated more than one billion dollars in pre

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Speaker 2: tax profits for them, according to the Financial Times. But

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Speaker 2: the meme coin, the Trump meme coin craze is well

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Speaker 2: and truly over.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Okay, up next Sean is Fear and Greed Q

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Speaker 1: and A. Your guest today is Matt Berg, who as

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Speaker 1: the founder and co CEO of Local Residential a great

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Speaker 1: supporter of this podcast. But this is a really interesting

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Speaker 1: conversation about bill to rent.

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Speaker 2: It's all about long term rentals and so what Local

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Speaker 2: Residential do. They've got properties in Victoria in Queensland. They're expanding.

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Speaker 2: They build apartments it might be for example, and you

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Speaker 2: can rent them out from somewhere between six months and

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Speaker 2: five years. And their communities so they have cinemas in

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Speaker 2: them and they have what we would call after trip

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Speaker 2: after work facilities, but they're kind of gyms and stuff

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Speaker 2: like that in them. And it's just a way of

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Speaker 2: addressing the housing crisis, which the government's kind of interested in.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it kind of feels like maybe it's the missing

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Speaker 1: piece of the puzzle, and map kind of goes into

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Speaker 1: it in some detail. It's great. Up next in the

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or at

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Speaker 1: Fearandgreed dot com dot au, which is where you sign

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Speaker 1: up Sean for the quite remarkable daily newsletter, which is.

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Speaker 2: It is I must today. I've actually given some space

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Speaker 2: to Monique the till Independent about just what she said. Specifically,

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Speaker 2: this is Monique Ryan from Kung because it's just entertaining. Like,

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Speaker 2: you know, we're certainly bipartisan here. We're not baking Monique

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Speaker 2: Ryan in any way, shape or form a bit like

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Speaker 2: we gave space to Jim Chalmers last week. But sometimes

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Speaker 2: in the discourse you get some really entertaining commentary and

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Speaker 2: so we're just going to share that one today.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, nice one. You can sign up in the show notes.

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Speaker 1: I'll put a link in the show notes, super easy,

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Speaker 1: popular email address in get it in your inbox every morning.

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Speaker 1: Thank you very much, Sean.

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Speaker 2: Thanks Michael.

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Speaker 1: It's Wednesday, the twenty eighth of January twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and join us online

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Speaker 1: on LinkedIn and Instagram. I'm Michael Thompson, and that was

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Speaker 1: fear and greed. Have a great day.