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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.

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Speaker 1: Treasurer Jim Chalmers hints at major tax reform in the

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Speaker 1: current parliament. Prime Minister Anthony Ibanezi considers heading to Europe

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Speaker 1: next week to meet Donald Trump, and Optus agrees to

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Speaker 1: a one hundred million dollar fine for selling customers phones

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Speaker 1: and contracts they did not want or need. Plus Airlines

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Speaker 1: stop flying to Bali after a volcanic eruption and the

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Speaker 1: extraordinary prices being offered to buy AI Gurus. It is Thursday,

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Speaker 1: the nineteenth of June twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson

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Speaker 1: and good morning, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael.

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Speaker 1: Great newsletter today, Sean. I love the AI Guru story.

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Speaker 2: Yes, it's a cracker, isn't it. I think the newsletters

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Speaker 2: full of plenty of great stories. There's six stories, there's

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Speaker 2: a commentary in there, there's by the numbers, Well it's

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Speaker 2: actually not by the numbers, it's actually a table of

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Speaker 2: numbers that we particularly like, and of course our interview.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a cracker. If you haven't signed up already,

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Speaker 1: it is entirely free. What are you doing? Head along

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Speaker 1: to Fearangreed dot com dot au and pop your email

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Speaker 1: address in. I'll put a link in today's show notes

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Speaker 1: as well, and you'll get it in your inbox every

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Speaker 1: morning by six am. It's a great three minute.

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Speaker 2: Read, Sean, it is a great three minute read.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning, let's get going. Treasurer Jim

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Speaker 1: Chalmers says an overhaul of the tax system is necessary

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Speaker 1: to reduce the budget's growing reliance on income tax and

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Speaker 1: improve the long term sustainability of the country's finances.

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Speaker 2: Speaking at the National Press Club yesterday, mister Chalmers comments

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Speaker 2: suggests the government will use its huge mandate one at

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Speaker 2: the May election to take on tax reform. Oh, Michael,

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Speaker 2: your eyes dropped. No exciting, it actually is.

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Speaker 1: And we joke a lot about reform here, but it's

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Speaker 1: actually just exciting to hear it finally being talked about,

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Speaker 1: right it is.

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Speaker 2: Chalmer said any tax reform would focus on lifting productivity

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Speaker 2: and investment and lower the income tax burden. Current projections

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Speaker 2: suggest that by the end of this decade, the income

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Speaker 2: tax burden will hit its highest level since the introduction

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Speaker 2: of the GST. That'll be in twenty twenty nine. That'll happen. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 2: the federal budget is forecast to be in deficit for

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Speaker 2: the next decade. Charmers concedes the budget position as it

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Speaker 2: stands at the moment is unsustainable. There are a couple

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Speaker 2: of big ticket items working against the budget and coming years. One,

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Speaker 2: the aging population means there will be proportionately fewer working

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Speaker 2: age Australians contributing to the budget in the future. And

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Speaker 2: number two, the shift to renewables means revenue from resources

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Speaker 2: will decline. If you take that into consideration, the government

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Speaker 2: really needs to find new, improved ways to find some revenue.

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Speaker 1: We've heard a few little bits and pieces from Jim

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Speaker 1: Chalmers here and there since the election, but this is

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Speaker 1: his first big, meaty chunky speech post election. Tax wasn't

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Speaker 1: a part of the re election platform for the alp

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Speaker 1: apart from the superannuation tax for balances above three million dollars,

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Speaker 1: which is certainly a very lumpy thing and hasn't had

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Speaker 1: the easiest run so far. Does this suggest Sean that

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Speaker 1: the government does genuinely want to use that mandate and

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Speaker 1: do more.

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Speaker 2: It sounds that normally when people like Jim Chalmers float

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Speaker 2: these ideas at the National Press come it's sounding out

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Speaker 2: the response trying to work out the appetite for serious

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Speaker 2: tax reform, running it up the flagpole, running up a flagpole,

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Speaker 2: if you want to use a overuse cliche. Now, Ever,

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Speaker 2: since the former head of Treasury, Ken Henry did the

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Speaker 2: last major tax review back in two thousand and nine,

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Speaker 2: most of that wasn't implemented, there's been calls for an

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Speaker 2: overhaul the tax system. The mainstays of the debate include

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Speaker 2: the need for a higher GST rate to offset company

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Speaker 2: and income tax cuts. So lower company tax, lower income tax,

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Speaker 2: higher GST, more of a user pay idea. Now, Chalmers

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Speaker 2: didn't categorically rule that out, though he didn't seem very

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Speaker 2: enthusiastic about it, and I think everyone from Ken Henry

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Speaker 2: since has said that GST has to be part of

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Speaker 2: any reform. The whole thing about taxes on mining, particular

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Speaker 2: fossil fuels, there needs to be a lot of work

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Speaker 2: around that as well. Chalmers yesterday reiterated that the changes

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Speaker 2: on the taxation of super earnings of three million dollars

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Speaker 2: we're going ahead. That means that earnings over three million

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Speaker 2: dollars will be subject to a thirty percent tax rate,

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Speaker 2: not fifteen percent. Unrealized gains will be caught up in that,

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Speaker 2: which is where all the controversy is about. Chalmers also

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Speaker 2: urged participants in the upcoming Productivity round table to come

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Speaker 2: up with fresh tax reform ideas. We've had tax reform

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Speaker 2: ideas every year for decades.

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Speaker 1: There's no shortage of ideas.

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Speaker 2: No, we just need to do something about them.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Indeed, now, Prime Minister Anthony Aberanezi could meet Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump next week now after changing his mind and deciding

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Speaker 1: to attend the NATO summit in the Hague.

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Speaker 2: It seems the condition is that Albanezi wants to arrange

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Speaker 2: a meeting with Trump before he goes. He doesn't want

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Speaker 2: to find himself in the same situation as he did

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Speaker 2: in the last couple of days, where he was hoping

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Speaker 2: to meet Trump in Canada at Calgary at the G

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Speaker 2: seven summit and Trump went home. Basically on Tuesday, the

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Speaker 2: government said Defense Minister Richard Miles would at tend NATO

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Speaker 2: on Australia's behalf when Trump went home to Prime Minister,

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Speaker 2: looks like he's changed his mind so he can meet

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump. Meanwhile, the Prime Minister, speaking from Canada, says

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Speaker 2: Australia could be close to securing a free trade deal

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Speaker 2: with the European Union. As some issues have been resolved, sheep,

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Speaker 2: meat and beef remain hurdles there. He also says he's

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Speaker 2: begun negotiations on the defense partnership with the European Union.

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Speaker 1: And he also said that he presented Australia's position on

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Speaker 1: Tariff's to US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant.

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Speaker 2: Yes, so the Trump meeting actually did happen, just that

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump wasn't there, so he still had a meeting

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Speaker 2: with the US White House officials the Economics team. He

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Speaker 2: said that he discussed how Australia can support the US

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Speaker 2: and critical minerals as well as Tariff's Albanez. He also

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Speaker 2: met with the leaders of Japan.

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Speaker 1: It's just sounding very fancy, India. I don't know about that.

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Speaker 1: You went too far, okay, Sean, We're going to take

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Speaker 1: a quick break before we do need to mention our

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Speaker 1: survey that we are doing, which is we're doing it

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Speaker 1: with Fonto, a research agency. We are we just want

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Speaker 1: to learn more about the Fear and Greek community. So

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Speaker 1: we want to hear from you what you enjoy, what

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Speaker 1: you think we could improve on. Do you want more

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Speaker 1: tax reform? Do you want to hear Sean being increasingly

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Speaker 1: fancy in the studio. If you take part before June thirty,

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Speaker 1: you will be in the running to win a three

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Speaker 1: thousand dollars luxury escapes voucher. There is a link in

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Speaker 1: today's show notes. There is also a link at the

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Speaker 1: bottom of the newsletter each day, so just scroll on

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Speaker 1: down to the bottom and click on through there. It

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Speaker 1: only it takes a couple of minutes. Definitely worthwhile, We

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Speaker 1: very much appreciate it. Sean will take a break back

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Speaker 1: in a moment with the rest of the day's business news.

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Speaker 2: Sean.

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Speaker 1: The High Court has rejected ousted CFMEU officials challenge to

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Speaker 1: the Albanese government's laws to force the Union into administration.

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Speaker 2: After six months of deliberation, the court dismissed all grounds

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Speaker 2: of the constitutional challenge. Some of the reasons the administration

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Speaker 2: laws have breached the separation of powers not true the

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Speaker 2: implied freedom of political communication, The ruling did not have

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Speaker 2: a sufficient connection to a common of power and it

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Speaker 2: amounted to taking union property without just terms compensation. High

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Speaker 2: Court found against the CFMEU in all cases. According to

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Speaker 2: the fin Review, the decision is expected to open the

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Speaker 2: way for the CFME. You administrator to take strong action,

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Speaker 2: including dismissing organizers loyal to the old regime, and boost

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Speaker 2: the confidence of the building industry to reveal corruption and

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Speaker 2: misconduct allegations. That's really the big hope here. Workplace Relations

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Speaker 2: Minister Amanda Rishworth welcomed the decision, saying it will give

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Speaker 2: the administrator the confidence to clean out the industry.

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Speaker 1: Sean, we were talking last week about reports that the

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Speaker 1: administrators of Regional Express wereally close to a sale of

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Speaker 1: the failed carrier. Now those hopes have been somewhat dashed.

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Speaker 1: It's not completely off the table, but it's not happening

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Speaker 1: just yet. The government says it will continue to support

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Speaker 1: REX for another six months.

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Speaker 2: Transport Minister Catherine King said the sale of REX is

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Speaker 2: progressing positively, but we need administrators for another six months.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so progressing positively, just not quickly, that's right.

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Speaker 2: The government will provide a further thirty million dollars in support,

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Speaker 2: taking the total amount of funding so far to about

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Speaker 2: one hundred and sixty million dollars when you include that

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Speaker 2: thirty million dollars. Mus King confirmed that the bidding field

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Speaker 2: had narrowed in an extension of the eleven month administration

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Speaker 2: would allow time to secure a market led solution. According

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Speaker 2: to The Australian Let's.

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Speaker 1: Say So indeed mentioned this at the top of the show.

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Speaker 1: Optus has agreed to pay a one hundred million dollar

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Speaker 1: penalty for selling customers phones and contracts they didn't want

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Speaker 1: they didn't need, after the Consumer watchdog accused the telco

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Speaker 1: of unconscionable conduct.

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Speaker 2: In competition and Consumer Commission sued Optus in October over

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Speaker 2: its sales practices, which included selling people products they could

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Speaker 2: not afford or did not have coverage where they lived.

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Speaker 2: It occurred between August twenty nineteen and July twenty twenty three. Yesterday,

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Speaker 2: Optis admitted to unconscionable conduct and apologized to its customers.

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Speaker 2: Optis chief executive Stephen Rue said customers would receive refunds

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Speaker 2: and that retail sales staff who were found to be

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Speaker 2: responsible for these practices have actually been fired. Rue said

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Speaker 2: that Telco had made numerous executive and senior leadership changes

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Speaker 2: since then, and discipline reaction has been taken. In some circumstances.

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Speaker 2: The HBC and Optors will jointly ask the Federal court

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Speaker 2: to impose a total penalty of one hundred million dollars

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Speaker 2: on Optics for breaching the Australian consumer law.

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Speaker 1: Now, further falls in the price of iron ore has

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Speaker 1: sent the share prices of the big miners down. Sent

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Speaker 1: them down obviously because the price is falling with the

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Speaker 1: key still making ingredients hitting ninety three US dollars a

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Speaker 1: ton those levels last scene in was it September of

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Speaker 1: last year.

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Speaker 2: It was the big three miners, Bage, p Fortescue and

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Speaker 2: Rear Tinto are all top twenty stocks, so when they

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Speaker 2: four the market doesn't tend to do so well. The

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Speaker 2: slowdown in China and reduction in demand for the ore,

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Speaker 2: alongside stronger competition from other miners very much putting pressure

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Speaker 2: on the Aussie players now. Earlier this week, three figures

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Speaker 2: from China show that nationwide steel output last month was

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Speaker 2: below the previous month, about seven percent less than a

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Speaker 2: year ago. Four to Skew Metals is mostly an iron

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Speaker 2: ore company, so it gets hit hardest when or benefits most,

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Speaker 2: whether it the move in the price of iron or

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Speaker 2: yesterday it was down four percent. It's down about thirty

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Speaker 2: percent over the last year. BHP was off about one

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Speaker 2: percent yesterday fourteen percent for the last year. Roye's cheer

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Speaker 2: price was also lower. It's down about ten percent.

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Speaker 1: We did a good episode of Ask Fear and Greed

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Speaker 1: yesterday on that didn't we it was. I described it

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Speaker 1: as good, but about how dependent Australia is on China

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Speaker 1: and the packed of just anything that happens in China,

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Speaker 1: how it has that flow on effect to Australia's economy,

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Speaker 1: and in particular we see it through the big miners.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, sure did. In fact, if you want it, it's

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Speaker 2: on your playlist, Ask Fear and Greed. There's another great

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Speaker 2: one out today, Michael. Related to that first story, we

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Speaker 2: had the lead story, the tax story.

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Speaker 1: It's all about tax reform and Green colleague Adam Lane

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Speaker 1: is just there smashing the download button on that one.

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Speaker 1: You can guarantee the sheer. Markeert just very quickly, how

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Speaker 1: do we finish up yesterday?

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Speaker 2: Well, SMPA six two hundred, close down slightly eight five

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Speaker 2: three two points, traded in a narrow range, lots close

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Speaker 2: in two weeks. Absolutely not much going on, Michael, I

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Speaker 2: saw that, well, good, Yeah, it's taken. Let's get an

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Speaker 2: international news.

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Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, let's move on very quickly, now Sean, the

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Speaker 1: situation in the Middle East continues to it's deteriorating, isn't it?

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Speaker 1: Israeli air strikes targeted Iran's capital city, Tehran over the

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Speaker 1: past thirty six hours. The death toll in the country

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Speaker 1: is now pushing towards six hundred.

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Speaker 2: As US President Donald Trump called for Iran's unconditional surrender,

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Speaker 2: he also said the US is considering joining Israel's strikes

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Speaker 2: targeting Iran's underground nuclear sites. Now, Iran Supreme Leader Aotola

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Speaker 2: Ali Kamani has responded, saying Iran will never compromise. Washington

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Speaker 2: based group Human Rights Activists said Israeli strikes had killed

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Speaker 2: at least five hundred and eighty five people and wounded

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Speaker 2: thirteen twenty six others so far in this war the

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Speaker 2: conflict between Israel and Iran, it's also spilling into the

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Speaker 2: digital world. The pro Israel hacking group claimed responsibility for

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Speaker 2: a disruptive cyber attack against a major Iranian bank. Also,

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Speaker 2: the state run Irib News reported that Israel had launched

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Speaker 2: a full scale cyber attack on Iran's critical infrastructure. So

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Speaker 2: as you say things are escalating.

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Speaker 1: At Bali Airport, Sean has canceled dozens of flights because

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Speaker 1: of a volcanic eruption, stranding holidaymakers and threatening the area's

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Speaker 1: key tourism industry.

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Speaker 2: Singapore Airlines, Jetstar Air Asia and others have halted flights

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Speaker 2: this week. Disruptions followed Tuesday's eruption of I'm going to

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Speaker 2: deal it wrong, Michael of the Mount Lower Toby Lucky

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Speaker 2: Lucky volcano in the east of Indonesia's Floors Island.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, that's pretty good. Do you remember the one

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Speaker 1: in Iceland a few years ago? That was fantastic and

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Speaker 1: you had all of the news readers trying to pronounce it,

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Speaker 1: and No, Bye.

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Speaker 2: Nine really nailed it. Mount Lower Toby Lucky Lucky volcano.

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Speaker 2: There you go. Authorities raised the volcanoes disaster alert to

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Speaker 2: the highest level of four after the eruption center nash

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Speaker 2: column of over ten kilometers into the sky. According to Bloomberg,

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Speaker 2: the airport at Dempasa, which obviously is the main gateway

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Speaker 2: to Bali, it remains open. Some carriers grew to air

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Speaker 2: for example, are still checking in passengers, but some many

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Speaker 2: of the others, as I mentioned, are not so. I

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Speaker 2: think monitoring devices are still detecting tremors indicating ongoing volcanic activity,

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Speaker 2: according to Indonesia's Disaster Management Agency.

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Speaker 1: Finally, Sean, this is just next level this story. Open

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Speaker 1: ai chief executive Sam Altman says, competitor meta platforms see

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Speaker 1: the owner of Facebook has offered his employees sign on bonuses.

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Speaker 1: That's fairly standard, except these sign on bonuses are as

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Speaker 1: high as one hundred million US dollars and even larger

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Speaker 1: annual compensation packages.

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Speaker 2: I mean, there's a battle of fine talent in the

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Speaker 2: artificial intelligence field, but this is pretty extreme. In a

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Speaker 2: podcast called Uncapped, Altman made that claim. He called it crazy.

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Speaker 2: Now the podcasts actually hosted by Sam Altman's brother, Sam

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Speaker 2: Altman said, so far, no one at open ai had

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Speaker 2: taken up the offer. OK, that's the crazy part. If

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Speaker 2: someone's offering me one hundred million to sign on and

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Speaker 2: then one hundred million dollars, you'd think about it. Medicine,

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Speaker 2: Mark Zuckerberg has been personally recruiting for a new superintelligence group.

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Speaker 2: I don't want to be rude here, but the super

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Speaker 2: intelligence group, do you really want to go and have

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Speaker 2: morning tea with them?

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Speaker 1: Doesn't sound super biped.

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Speaker 2: He's offering high sums to top AI researchers across the industry.

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Speaker 2: Last week the company now so FOURT two point three

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Speaker 2: billion dollar investment in scale AI. They're not commenting on

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Speaker 2: this particular what Sam Moltman has said, but one hundred

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Speaker 2: million dollars sign on bonus.

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Speaker 1: I've used chap GPT before that can I qualify well,

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Speaker 1: Sam Moltman, you know where to find me. Shine. Up

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Speaker 1: next is the Fear and Great Daily Interview. Your guest today,

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Speaker 1: amp's deputy chief economist Diana Messina.

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Speaker 2: We talk about what the geopolitical uncertainty means for share

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Speaker 2: markets now. Downerstone is a great piece of research which

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Speaker 2: over that looks at geopolitical certainty over the last hundred

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Speaker 2: years and what's happened to share markets before and afterwards.

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Speaker 2: And we put that into a framework of okay, so

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Speaker 2: this is what has happened before and we're having this

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Speaker 2: huge geopolitical uncertainty at the moment. What should investors do?

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Speaker 2: And so we give them Diana tells us how investors

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Speaker 2: should play what's going on.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a really good conversation. It is definitely worth

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Speaker 1: the listeners. Coming up next to the Fear and Greed

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Speaker 1: Playlist on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com

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Speaker 1: dot au, which is where you sign up for that

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Speaker 1: free daily newsletter. Thank you Sean, Thank you Michael. It

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Speaker 1: is Thursday, the nineteenth of June twenty twenty five. Make

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Speaker 1: sure you're following the podcast and please join us online

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Speaker 1: on LinkedIn, Instagram, ex TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson

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Speaker 1: and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.