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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed, Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers announces

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Speaker 1: a major shakeup for the Reserve Bank, appointing new members

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Speaker 1: to the Interest Rates Setting Board, AI takes hold in

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Speaker 1: Corporate Australia and a major oil spill off the coast

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Speaker 1: of Russia, plus is baux site, the new iron ore

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Speaker 1: and heat wave conditions down the East Coast. Welcome to

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed, daily business news for people who make

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Speaker 1: their own decisions. It is Tuesday, the seventeenth of December

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning Michael, Sean.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning. Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers has

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Speaker 1: appointed an academic and a former bank boss to the

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Speaker 1: new Reserve Bank Interest Rates Setting Committee, while two long

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Speaker 1: standing board members will move off the committee.

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Speaker 2: Australian National University professor Renee Frye mckibbon, who was an

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Speaker 2: author of last year's independent review into the Reserve Bank,

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Speaker 2: got a gig. She's got a very resume, having been

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Speaker 2: at the Crawford School of Public Policies at A and

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Speaker 2: U for twenty years, as well as having had stints

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Speaker 2: at the European Central Bank, the International Monastery Fund, the

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Speaker 2: Bank of England, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and

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Speaker 2: the Atlanta Fed. She's married to Warwick mckibbon, who's a

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Speaker 2: former Reserve Bank staffer. He also sat on the board

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Speaker 2: for a while and nowadays is probably better known as

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Speaker 2: an occasional critic of the Central Bank. Anyway, congratulations to

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Speaker 2: Renee Fry McKibben. Another person to get the night is

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Speaker 2: former Bank of Bendigo and Adelaide boss Marnie Baker. A

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Speaker 2: friend of the show we've had her on. She spent

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Speaker 2: thirty five years with the Bank of Bendigo, including six

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Speaker 2: as chief executive officer. What I like about Marney's appointment

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Speaker 2: she brings real life experience around interest rates and what

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Speaker 2: it means for customers. Two existing Reserve Bank Board members,

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Speaker 2: Telstra director Elina Rubin and businesswoman Carol Schwartz, will shift

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Speaker 2: to a new separate governance committee that will oversee the

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Speaker 2: internal operations of the Central Bank, but not set interest rates.

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Speaker 2: Are reckoning be a bit dirty about that, Michael, Thank you, reckon,

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Speaker 2: Like you just shoved off the interest rates setting board

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Speaker 2: looking after governance.

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Speaker 1: Off the rock star board.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Really, that's what the interesting like those who've got to

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Speaker 1: admit though those two appointees coming on, Marnie Baker and

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Speaker 1: Renee Fry McKibben, they are very very well credentialed for

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Speaker 1: those jobs.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, absolutely. There are four new faces on the

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Speaker 2: governance boards that remember the boards being split into two,

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Speaker 2: one that sets interest rates, the other that looks after governance.

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Speaker 2: In that second, the Governance Board, we've got four new people.

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Speaker 2: Jennifer Westercott used to be the Business Council of Australia CEO.

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Speaker 2: David thirty he used to run Telstra, among other things,

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Speaker 2: Danny Gilbert, corporate lawyer Gilbert and Tobin we know that one,

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Speaker 2: and Board Director Swatty Dave. The Governance Board will oversee

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Speaker 2: human resources, internal finances, risk management, technology, corporate strategy and

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Speaker 2: the renovation of thisbecis riddled Martin place building. The interest

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Speaker 2: rates setting board looks at interest rates. I know which

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Speaker 2: one I'd rather be too, perfectly the artist Michael.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, rather overseeing the renovation. That's an important job, and

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Speaker 1: it's an important job, but but it's probably not going

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Speaker 1: to get the headlines in the same way that being

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Speaker 1: on the interest rates setting board is going to right.

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Speaker 2: The new structure kicks off in March after the first

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Speaker 2: meeting of the year in February.

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Speaker 1: Does it matter, Sean, like, does all of this matter?

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Speaker 1: I don't mean to be so skeptical about everything, but

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Speaker 1: does it?

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Speaker 2: You are a cynic. I think Steven could Cooles might

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Speaker 2: be on your side. I don't think he's sure that's

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Speaker 2: going to matter that too much. I totally disagree. I

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Speaker 2: actually think it really does matter. Now. We don't know

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Speaker 2: what Renee Frye, McKinnon or Marney Baker think about interest rates.

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Speaker 2: In fact, we don't really know what the other non

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Speaker 2: Reserve Bank Board members still on the Rate committee. Stephen

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Speaker 2: Kennedy from Treasury, Ian Harper, an economist Alison Watkins, the

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Speaker 2: company director Carol Houston saying, but Ian Ross, we don't

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Speaker 2: really know what they think about rates, but under this

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Speaker 2: new structure they definitely will get much more of a say.

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Speaker 2: It just won't be the Reserve Bank bureaucrats presenting a

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Speaker 2: bunch of slides saying this is what we need to

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Speaker 2: do on rates.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: I'm probably being a bit mean to the board members

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Speaker 2: at the moment, but there's no doubt the Reserve Bank

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Speaker 2: senior staff Michelle Bullock and her team have the biggest vote.

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Speaker 2: The new structure and the spotlight that's been on the

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Speaker 2: Reserve Bank will force individuals to have a view. Maney

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Speaker 2: Baker will definitely have a view. She's run a bank

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Speaker 2: for six years, but she's in banking for thirty five years.

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Speaker 2: Renee Frei mckibbon. She's the one that came up with

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Speaker 2: the idea saying, hey, we need more outsiders inside the

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Speaker 2: bank giving their view. So I actually think it really matters.

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Speaker 1: So I suppose better for accountability, better for real world

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Speaker 1: insights into the impact of these decisions and the necessity

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Speaker 1: of these decisions as well. So overall, it kind of

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Speaker 1: probably does tick a fair few boxes.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think so, I think.

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Speaker 1: So, Okay, all right, let's take a look at local markets.

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Speaker 1: How did things go? Yesterday?

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Speaker 2: The S and PASX two hundred close down a little

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Speaker 2: over half percent to eighty two hundred and fifty points A.

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Speaker 2: Local miners fell further after the Chinese government failed to

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Speaker 2: deliver a decent stimulus package over the weekend. Tech stocks

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Speaker 2: also suffered after Nasdak dropped over the weekend. While property

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Speaker 2: groups were lower generally, banks were high, as were the retailer's.

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Speaker 2: Not a great day too. For Digiko, listed on Friday,

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Speaker 2: fell five percent that day, dropped another five percent. Yesterday.

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Speaker 2: Shares Inventi had dropped after executives at the infrastructure giant

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Speaker 2: were named in a case over alleged price fixing brought

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Speaker 2: by the hble C last week. The shares a down

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Speaker 2: eighteen percent in the past five days. Now, the Worth

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Speaker 2: of mentioned corporate regulator has formally opened an investigation into

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Speaker 2: oneline retailer Cogan after two of its most senior executives,

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Speaker 2: including founder Rustlin Cogan, struck a profitable options deal with

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Speaker 2: the board, enriching them collectively by more than seventeen million dollars.

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Speaker 1: What's going on in international market? It's big week.

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Speaker 2: Well, mostly it's about the Federal Reserve this week with

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Speaker 2: an interest rate setting meeting into straight setting meeting. I

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Speaker 2: don't think that's proper English, Michael. They're going to meet

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Speaker 2: and set interest rates? How about that?

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Speaker 1: Yes, it's slightly more words of the problem, a little

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Speaker 1: bit clunkier, but you know, let's roll with it.

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Speaker 2: The big economic news globally yesterday we're figures out of

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Speaker 2: China retail sales were worse than forecast last month. This

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Speaker 2: is we care about that because the Chinese consumer is

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Speaker 2: a very powerful driver of global economic growth and they

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Speaker 2: don't have their foot on the accelerator at the moment.

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Speaker 2: There was also a drop in house prices in China,

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Speaker 2: so generally the world's second largest nation is looking just

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Speaker 2: a bit ordinary. That certainly hasn't helped Iron all prices

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Speaker 2: which are lower, Hence the big miners, or that contributed

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Speaker 2: to the big miners falling yesterday, the positive news, maybe

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Speaker 2: it's positive or not, Maybe it's positive. Bitcoin hit a

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Speaker 2: new record high yesterday of above one hundred and six

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Speaker 2: thousand US dollars at a unit. Other cryptos benefited. The

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Speaker 2: Gussie dollar is trading just under sixty four US since.

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Speaker 1: Now, Sean, I'm a little bit wary of this next story.

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Speaker 1: You want to talk about baux Site. And the reason

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Speaker 1: I'm wary of it is because you and I been

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Speaker 1: chatting about this off air, and you are you've taken

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Speaker 1: to calling baux Site sexy. It is absolutely sick. You

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Speaker 1: know what it is? Even well, funny, funny story, Sean,

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Speaker 1: baux Site has been introduced to a whole new generation

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Speaker 1: because it is referenced in the TV show Bluey Is

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Speaker 1: that right? Just randomly on one episode, baux site is

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Speaker 1: mentioned several times. There's really no explanation as to what

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Speaker 1: it is or why it's important or anything. But suddenly

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Speaker 1: all of these preschoolers around the country and around the

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Speaker 1: world in fact, are hearing the word baux site. It

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Speaker 1: might be the first mineral they actually hear.

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Speaker 2: Wow, that's very cool. It's a raw material for producing aluminium,

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Speaker 2: so it's a very important natural product. Just occurs because

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Speaker 2: of weathering. It's kind of a white to grade, a

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Speaker 2: reddish orange brown crust you see sort of on rocks

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Speaker 2: and that sometimes sometimes you break off a rock and

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Speaker 2: there's like an orange tinge and you crack of.

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Speaker 1: Oh, that's a nice box site. That's where the creepiness

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Speaker 1: starts to come into this where slinking box side is sexy.

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Speaker 1: Please go on.

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Speaker 2: Did you know that Michael Australia is the world's largest

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Speaker 2: book site producer.

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Speaker 1: I did not know that.

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Speaker 2: Now we're getting interested the benchmark price known as Guinea

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Speaker 2: grade book site. That's because Guinea in Africa is the

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Speaker 2: also one of the largest producers Guinea grade box site.

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Speaker 2: It's hit one hundred and twelve US dollars a ton. Well,

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Speaker 2: why should we get excited about that? Because it's at

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Speaker 2: a record high and it's like double what was not

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Speaker 2: long ago. It's also more expensive than iron ore. Suddenly,

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Speaker 2: book site is sexy more so than iron or. And

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Speaker 2: Australia is the biggest exporter, well, no, biggest producer of

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Speaker 2: box site. The main reason there's a supply crunch in

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Speaker 2: Africa and Guinea is being crunched in that and there's

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Speaker 2: a big jump in demand from China. Why is that? Well,

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Speaker 2: I'm so pleased to ask me, Michael.

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Speaker 1: Do you just want me to step out of the studio?

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Speaker 2: Please say nothing.

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Speaker 1: It feels like you are just on a roll here

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Speaker 1: a box site. It's exciting element.

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Speaker 2: There's a bit of an aluminium verse steel thing going

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Speaker 2: on at the moment.

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Speaker 1: There's a weird seorn box site thing going on at

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Speaker 1: the moment, But please go on.

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Speaker 2: Steel obviously is really important in kind of big construction.

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Speaker 2: That's what that's about, iron ore being a raw material

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Speaker 2: for that. Aluminium is used in smaller products like solar panels,

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Speaker 2: electric vehicles, batteries. Now, part of the reason for the

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Speaker 2: price jum is that people think aluminium will do a

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Speaker 2: lot better than steel, or the demand for aluminium will

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Speaker 2: be greater the demand for steel over the next year,

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Speaker 2: at least as it pertains to China, which of course

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Speaker 2: is the biggest, has a Biggs demand for both iron

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Speaker 2: or and box heart. So what we're getting is this

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Speaker 2: steal the aluminium thing. Aluminium seems to be winning, at

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Speaker 2: least in the eyes of investors. Hence box Site is

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Speaker 2: beating iron Or. Look, I'm blowing this up out of

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Speaker 2: all proportion. Don't get me wrong, I understand that. But

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Speaker 2: isn't this exciting and really exciting if you're a Rio

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Speaker 2: Tinto investor because it is the country's biggest exporter of

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Speaker 2: box heart. It may not be the world's biggest exporter,

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Speaker 2: but it's very close to it.

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Speaker 1: You're done, yes, yes, yes, yes, get on with the show.

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Speaker 1: Sorry off now, No, this is great.

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Speaker 2: Look.

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Speaker 1: If ever, if anyone ever encounters a baux Site trivia

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Speaker 1: question at a Wednesday night pub trivia, I've got Sean

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Speaker 1: Almer to thank for that. Thank you Sean for taking

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Speaker 1: us through that quick mention of the interview that we

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Speaker 1: have coming up after the show. It's sill got plenty

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Speaker 1: to go, so don't go anywhere yet. But coming up

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Speaker 1: after the show doctor David Stamler, who is the chief

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Speaker 1: executive of Altiy of Pharmaceuticals.

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Speaker 2: Fascinating company. They have a drug or an oral treatment

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Speaker 2: which they hope we'll be able to treat multiple system atrophy.

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Speaker 2: Now it's part of the Parkinson family. They're at stage

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Speaker 2: two trial point. They're getting results out next month. In January.

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Speaker 2: We talked about the whole process they've been through, why

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Speaker 2: they are working on that drug, where they're up to.

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Speaker 2: Really fascinating look into that company.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's coming up after the show. It is a

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Speaker 1: really interesting conversation. Still plenty more to come. We got

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Speaker 1: some fascinating polls about the likelihood of a minority government

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Speaker 1: next year. We're talking AI in the workplace, Russian oil spills.

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Speaker 1: So much still to get through. Sean will be back

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Speaker 1: in a moment with the rest of the day's business news. Sean.

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Speaker 1: The majority of voters believe Australia will have a minority

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Speaker 1: government after the next election, which is due of course,

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Speaker 1: by the middle of May next year. That's not far away.

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Speaker 2: The latest Financial Review Freshwater Strategy poll shows the Coalition

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Speaker 2: ahead on a two party preferred basis fifty one forty nine.

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Speaker 2: The primary vote's unchanged to ILP thirty percent, Coalition forty percent,

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Speaker 2: Greens fourteen percent. It suggests a minority government with Anthony

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Speaker 2: Albanesi in charge, although they actually asked respondents who they

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Speaker 2: thought would run a minority government and they said Peter Dutton.

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Speaker 2: Currently betting markets have Peter Dutton in front. The survey

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Speaker 2: says that in a bunch of areas, Peter Dutton leads

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Speaker 2: Anthony Alberesi. So we're talking about things like understanding the

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Speaker 2: problems facing Australians, can get things done, has a clear

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Speaker 2: vision for Australia. Strong leader, shares my values. In fact,

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Speaker 2: Anthony Albanesi was only in front in two one was

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Speaker 2: would be easy to speak to and the second one

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Speaker 2: is in touch with ordinary people.

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Speaker 1: Mentioned AI earlier in the show, Sean law firm Mintor

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Speaker 1: Ellison says at least eighty percent of its lawyers and

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Speaker 1: partners will have to use artificial intelligence tools in their

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Speaker 1: daily work by March next year. So what three months time?

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Speaker 2: Mentors will provide three AI tools and give training for them.

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Speaker 2: Firm leaders will have to hit AI metrics as part

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Speaker 2: of their performance hurdles. Partners and staff report that using

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Speaker 2: co pilot has saved them, on average, about two to

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Speaker 2: five hours per week of work, according to report in

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Speaker 2: the fin Review. Now, not all tasks can be done

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Speaker 2: using AI, there are certainly prescribed functions, but that whole

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Speaker 2: sector professional services sector is embracing AI relatively quickly. Other

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Speaker 2: companies who have reportedly jumped into AI and have seen

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Speaker 2: it the leading the pack on that comm off Banks,

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Speaker 2: One BHPS and other Promdicus, the imaging group, Sonic Healthcare.

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Speaker 2: There is no doubt AI is filtering through the economy

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Speaker 2: very very quickly.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Indeed, Now Treasurer Jim Chalmers Sean, it must be said,

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Speaker 1: has been very very busy, apart from announcing new members

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Speaker 1: for the RBA board, so downgraded the value of mining

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Speaker 1: exports by one hundred billion dollars for this financial year.

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Speaker 2: That will hit the bottom line of my EFO, which

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Speaker 2: is due for release tomorrow. Do you remember what my

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Speaker 2: EFO stands for? Michael?

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Speaker 1: Oh god, I do remember this mid year economic h

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Speaker 1: fiscal outlook?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, beautiful. We'll get all the details on MYIFO tomorrow.

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Speaker 2: But yesterday he said he you know, he wasn't pessimistic

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Speaker 2: about the mining sector, but the downgrade was reality of

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Speaker 2: weaker demand out of China. MYFO will also include a

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Speaker 2: downgrading company taxes by about eight point five billion dollars.

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Speaker 2: It should actually include lower than expected outgoings in terms

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Speaker 2: of unemployment benefits. Given the labor markets so strong, market

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Speaker 2: economists expect a budget deficit this financial year of between

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Speaker 2: twenty five and thirty billion dollars.

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Speaker 1: I'm still sweating from you putting me on the on

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Speaker 1: the spot, this instant sweat sean in Victoria Treasurer Tim

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Speaker 1: Pallas is leaving politics after nearly twenty years in Spring Street.

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Speaker 2: Expert in state politics, but to last twenty years in

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Speaker 2: Victorian politics is a pretty good effort. Pallas said the

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Speaker 2: state's economy is in a strong position, notwithstanding recent data

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Speaker 2: and plenty of criticism suggesting the opposite. The longest serving

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Speaker 2: standalone state Treasurer Victoria has had said, it's been an

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Speaker 2: honor and privilege to serve the people of Werriby. He's

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Speaker 2: electric staying local. Canberra Airport says Qatar Airlines will restart

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Speaker 2: flights to the ACT next year after ceasing services during

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Speaker 2: the pandemic.

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Speaker 1: That's cool. The East Coast Sean is experiencing an extreme

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Speaker 1: heat wave, with temperatures in some locations pushing beyond forty degrees.

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Speaker 2: Yesterday was one of the hottest December days on records.

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Speaker 2: Parts of Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland were expected

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Speaker 2: to reach the high forties, while the Northern territory faces

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Speaker 2: severe to extreme heat wave conditions for much of the

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Speaker 2: next three days. Alice Springs and the northern territories expected

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Speaker 2: to reach up to forty three degrees. Southwest Queensland's Birdsville

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Speaker 2: forty five to uries. Melbourne expected to hit forty one degrees.

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Speaker 2: That'll be its hottest day since January, hottest December day

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Speaker 2: since twenty nineteen. Some locations in western New South Wales

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Speaker 2: could approach December records temperatures of forty six forty seven

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Speaker 2: degrees will Kenya in the northwest is expected to hit

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Speaker 2: forty seven degrees.

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Speaker 1: That is hot. In international news Sean, a Russian tanker

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Speaker 1: has broken a part during a heavy storm in the

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Speaker 1: Black Sea over the weekend, spilling some of its forty

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Speaker 1: three hundred ton cargo of fuel oil and what could

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Speaker 1: potentially be one of the region's largest environmental disasters. In

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Speaker 1: several years.

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Speaker 2: The carrier came apart about eight kilometers from the shore

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Speaker 2: and its prow sank during bad weather in the Kirch Strait,

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Speaker 2: which separates the east coast of the Russian annexed Crimean

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Speaker 2: Peninsula from mainland Russia. At least one of its crew

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Speaker 2: members was killed, according to emergency services. Another carrier with

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Speaker 2: a similar cargo ran a ground after sustaining damage. Shortly afterwards,

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Speaker 2: according to report in the Financial Times, Russian President Vladimir

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Speaker 2: Putin ordered a working group to rescue the ship's crews

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Speaker 2: and deal with the consequences of the spill. Officials told

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Speaker 2: Russian newswire inter Facts that they were investigating a possible

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Speaker 2: error by the crew and storm damage as the reasons

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Speaker 2: for the breaching. The tankers were built in the early

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Speaker 2: nineteen eighties. They're actually designed to be used on rivers.

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Speaker 2: They're only based to venture into coastal waters during calm weather,

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Speaker 2: and it wasn't calm weather.

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Speaker 1: And finally, showing several hundred people and possibly even thousands

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Speaker 1: may have been killed when the most powerful cyclone in

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Speaker 1: nearly a century hit the French Indian Ocean archipelago of mayote.

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Speaker 2: A, senior local French official said there will certainly be

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Speaker 2: hundreds of people killed, maybe thousands. Cyclone Cheeto hit Mayote

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Speaker 2: yesterday with winds of more than two hundred kilometers an hour,

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Speaker 2: damaging housing, government buildings in a hospital. Stronger storm in

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Speaker 2: more than ninety years hit the islands, which are situated

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Speaker 2: three hundred kilometers northwest of Madagascar. Aerial footage shared by

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Speaker 2: the French police show the wage of hundreds of makeshift

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Speaker 2: houses strewn across the hills of one of Mayotte's islands.

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Speaker 2: According to Reuters, it's a really interesting island. In the

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Speaker 2: last few decades, thousands of people have attempted to make

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Speaker 2: the crossing from Comoros, off the coast of East Africa

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Speaker 2: to Mayotte, which has a much higher standard of living

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Speaker 2: and access to the French welfare system. It is part

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Speaker 2: of France. It's estimated that over one hundred thousand undocumented

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Speaker 2: migrants live in Mayotte. It's having to be very difficult

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Speaker 2: to work at how many were killed.

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Speaker 1: Sean Up next is the Fear and Greed Daily Interview.

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Speaker 1: Your guest today, doctor David Stanler, chief executive of al

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Speaker 1: Terty Pharmaceuticals. A great conversation, well worth a listen. They're

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Speaker 1: a good supporter of Fear and Greed as well. They

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Speaker 1: are coming up next in the Fear and Greed playlist

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Speaker 1: on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com dot au,

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Speaker 1: which is also Sean where you can sign up for

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Speaker 1: the free weekly newsletter which comes out tomorrow. So there's

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Speaker 1: never been a better time than right now to sign

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Speaker 1: up for that one. Thank you very much, Sean.

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Speaker 2: Thank you, Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Tuesday, the seventeenth of December twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us

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Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael

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Speaker 1: Thompson and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.