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Speaker 1: This podcast was recorded on the land of the Gatigel

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Speaker 1: people of the Eur Nation.

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Speaker 2: Hello and welcome to the Real Story with Joe hild

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Speaker 2: Around another absolutely huge week. We've had that crazy, historic,

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Speaker 2: controversial march across the Harbor Bridge over the weekend. So

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Speaker 2: what does it really mean? Is it going to make

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Speaker 2: any difference in the conflict between Israel and Palestine or

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Speaker 2: the starvation in Gaza. Reveal everything about that. Plus, China

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Speaker 2: is not just on our doorstop, it's in among us.

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Speaker 2: We've just had the arrest of an alleged Chinese operative

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Speaker 2: infiltrating organizations in Canberra. So how do these spies really

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Speaker 2: work and how do our spies really work? I'll reveal

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Speaker 2: a little bit about that as well. Plus what is

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Speaker 2: China's endgame? What are they trying to do with us?

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Speaker 2: What are they trying to do to us? I'll speak

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Speaker 2: to someone who is the ultimate expert in these matters.

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Speaker 2: All that more coming up. So first up, I want

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Speaker 2: to talk about the really big issue that has been

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Speaker 2: consuming pretty much everybody in the media and politics this week,

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Speaker 2: and that is this march across the Harbor Bridge on Sunday.

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Speaker 2: This was an asoric event in many ways, almost one

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Speaker 2: hundred thousand people. About ninety thousand people they reckon march

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Speaker 2: across the Harbor Bridge. There were of course other protest

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Speaker 2: marches in Melbourne especially as well, but it was the

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Speaker 2: Harbor Bridge March that really caught the nation's attention because

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Speaker 2: I think so few people expected it to happen, and

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Speaker 2: because the Harbor Bridge is such an iconic image of

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Speaker 2: not just Sydney but Australia, and so when people saw

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Speaker 2: this symbol co operted for a particular cause caused very

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Speaker 2: visceral emotions among some sections of the community. And there

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Speaker 2: are other people who were also a bit uneasy about

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Speaker 2: it as well, people who were very sympathetic to the

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Speaker 2: Palestinian cause but weren't quite weren't quite comfortable with how

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Speaker 2: the bridge got pulled into it. This was of course

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Speaker 2: a march for Gaza, a march for Palestine, a march

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Speaker 2: for humanity, a march against Israel, and a march, according

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Speaker 2: to some placards that were being held, march for the

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Speaker 2: Highatola of Iran. And that I think is part of

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Speaker 2: the problem and the complexity with what took place on

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Speaker 2: the weekend, that there were all these sort of different

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Speaker 2: causes and agendas, some of which were purely humanitarian and compassionate,

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Speaker 2: like the awful situation in Gaza where you have obviously,

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Speaker 2: no matter where you stand, I think you have to

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Speaker 2: acknowledge that there is a huge amount of starvation, just

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Speaker 2: catastrophic results fueled by both I dare say, Hamas and Israel.

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Speaker 2: But there was also a whole bunch of people again

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Speaker 2: who were holding flags that were linked to terror organizations,

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Speaker 2: holding pictures of Ayatola Kamani, who is the most barbarous, brutal,

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Speaker 2: murderous theocratic dictator of Iran. So how did it happen

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Speaker 2: and what was it for and what difference will it

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Speaker 2: even mate? What were they trying to achieve? And this

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Speaker 2: is what kind of gets me about these things, about

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Speaker 2: these protests. Yes, obviously anyone with any sense of compassion

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Speaker 2: with the human heart is horrified by what's happening in Gaza,

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Speaker 2: But what does jumping up and down and saying how

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Speaker 2: horrified you are, and kind of I dare say, making

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Speaker 2: it a bit about you instead of about the people

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Speaker 2: who are starving. What does that actually achieve and what

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Speaker 2: are you trying to achieve by that? So this was

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Speaker 2: a march that like I suppose you know, the march

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Speaker 2: before it, and the March before that, and all the

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Speaker 2: other marches that have been every weekend since the October

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Speaker 2: seven terror attack by her Mass and Israel's reprisals been

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Speaker 2: taking place in capital cities across Australia, but most particularly

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Speaker 2: Sydney and Melbourne. And after this image of a poor

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Speaker 2: young child starving being held by his mother circulated around

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Speaker 2: the world, this seemed to escalate things and certainly created

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Speaker 2: a huge amount of sympathy for the Gazan situation, which

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Speaker 2: was not necessarily there before. Sympathy that came from ultra

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Speaker 2: conservative newspapers for example, that would have been otherwise very

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Speaker 2: pro Israel, but said, hey, I know enough is enough.

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Speaker 2: But anyway, this crowded this sort of global momentum. And

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Speaker 2: of course what does the usual rent a crowd in

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Speaker 2: Australia that's been protesting every week to no avail, what

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Speaker 2: do they think this is the time to do another protest?

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Speaker 2: So you've actually got this kind of sea change in

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Speaker 2: sort of global sentiments and most importantly the sentiment of

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Speaker 2: the US President Donald Trump. I'm not sure the protests

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Speaker 2: are too fond of him. But he's he's the one

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Speaker 2: who's the image has affected, who is in the most

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Speaker 2: powerful position to affect what Israel actually does. And it

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Speaker 2: seems that he did have a word because Israel he'sed

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Speaker 2: the supply of aid into Gaza. Once that picture did

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Speaker 2: the rounds and Donald Trump said how concerned he was

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Speaker 2: by it. But these guys say no, no, we'll just

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Speaker 2: go and have another protest, and well, you know, we'll

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Speaker 2: piss off half of Sydney by shutting down the Harbor

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Speaker 2: Bridge and the CBD and this will again do what

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Speaker 2: So neither the protest is nor the government actually thought

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Speaker 2: that this would be able to go ahead. The government,

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Speaker 2: state government. You said, that was absolutely no way. The

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Speaker 2: cop said no. Why. This is a public safety issue.

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Speaker 2: Apart from the massive inconvenience to shutting down the biggest

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Speaker 2: piece of infrastructure in Sydney or the CBD, where police

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Speaker 2: are just donet go because it's going to be a nightmare,

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Speaker 2: it's also a crowd safety issue, the safety of the

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Speaker 2: marches themselves when you have that many people all in

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Speaker 2: the one place, all on a piece of vital infrastructure,

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Speaker 2: and with no time to actually prepare and for the

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Speaker 2: police to make contingency plans and transport arrangements and make

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Speaker 2: sure there's ways for people to get off and out.

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Speaker 2: And indeed that was what ended up happening, but not

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Speaker 2: before the Supreme Court say oh no, it'll be fine.

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Speaker 2: Very weird decision by the court, but yes, no, they

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Speaker 2: took it to the court. Even the protesters seem to

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Speaker 2: think that they weren't going to get prival because they

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Speaker 2: were making noise, they were just going to do it anyway,

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Speaker 2: But the judge said, yeah, no, fine, yeah that sounds great, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: go for it, no worries inspiring. Exactly what happened was

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Speaker 2: what police had for fear that there was the threat

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Speaker 2: of a massive crush. They were deeply alarmed and they

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Speaker 2: basically had to tell the protesters to stop and turn

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Speaker 2: around when they're halfway across the bridge because they could

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Speaker 2: see it all bottling up into a situation where there

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Speaker 2: could be a massive crowd crush. And eyewitnesses were saying

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Speaker 2: the same thing that it looked really, really hairy. So nonetheless,

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Speaker 2: they got their pickop, they got their photo holding the banner,

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Speaker 2: they got their photo of people holding a picture of

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Speaker 2: the Ietoler Kamane, And what did it actually achieve. What

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Speaker 2: impact did it actually have? Well, did it have any

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Speaker 2: impact on Benjamin et Yahoo, who was the one person

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Speaker 2: in the most immediate position to be able to if

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Speaker 2: you know, again, all these claims that it's simply Israel

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Speaker 2: that's lifting the boomgate on the aid coming in or out,

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Speaker 2: did have any impact on him letting the aid come

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Speaker 2: in there out? Well, no, because Israel had already let

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Speaker 2: more aid in on the back of that picture that

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Speaker 2: did the rounds, however questionable you might think the picture

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Speaker 2: is it created enough of a change in global mood

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Speaker 2: for Israel to think, oh, we better better do something

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Speaker 2: about this and stop looking like the pariah, stop looking

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Speaker 2: like the bad guys. And again, what was the biggest

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Speaker 2: factor in that? It was Donald Trump? It was Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: Just like when Malania saw the pictures of a Ukraine

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Speaker 2: being bombed by the Russians and had a quiet word

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Speaker 2: and oh, oh really, yeah, maybe the Russians are the

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Speaker 2: bad guys. Better do something about that. If only I

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Speaker 2: knew the President of the United saying oh hey, no,

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Speaker 2: that's me whoo So Donald he comes around, comes around

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Speaker 2: in Ukraine and made the same noises about what was

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Speaker 2: happening in Gaza after the photo did the rounds. Donald

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Speaker 2: is a very visual guy. He bombed Syria after he

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Speaker 2: saw the pictures of the children had been affected by

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Speaker 2: the chemical weapons. He sees that says, oh that's not right.

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Speaker 2: Maybe he's a simple man, but you know, he sees something,

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Speaker 2: he doesn't like it, he does something about it. He's

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Speaker 2: been the only person on the face of the planet

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Speaker 2: bar Nan, who's been able to get Benjamin Netanyahoo to

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Speaker 2: change his mind to do something he doesn't want to do.

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Speaker 2: He was the one who got Net and Yahoo to

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Speaker 2: turn the planes around when they were on their way

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Speaker 2: back to Iran for another bombing raid, just after the

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Speaker 2: US had dismantled destroyed the nuclear bunkers and Bibie wanted

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Speaker 2: to re escalate again after a bit of tip for tat,

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Speaker 2: and Trump famously said, you know, they don't know what

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Speaker 2: they're doing, and he got on the phone and those

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Speaker 2: planes got turned around. No one else has been able

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Speaker 2: to do that, right, No one else has that kind

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Speaker 2: of power on the planet. So again, if the protesters

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Speaker 2: really what to make an impact, they should be protesting

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Speaker 2: in favor of Donald Trump. Say go Donald, you tell

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Speaker 2: him he's the only one who's been able to make

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Speaker 2: a difference. That is just a fact, whether you like

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Speaker 2: the guy or not. But of course they don't like

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump either, So that, I suppose is the first

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Speaker 2: kind of question, like what difference do you think this

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Speaker 2: march is going to make over there? The second is, okay, well,

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Speaker 2: maybe we just have to take care of what's happening

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Speaker 2: in our own backyard and say, you know, Anthony Albanezi,

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Speaker 2: we want you to do this. We want Australia to

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Speaker 2: say this that or the other, or do this that

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Speaker 2: or the other. Obviously Israel's not listening to Australia either, Albo.

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Speaker 2: I don't think I was even able to get a

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Speaker 2: phone call or with Benjamin et Yahu this week, and

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Speaker 2: you know why would he? I mean, I don't think

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Speaker 2: the two particularly close friends, and Australia has been very

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Speaker 2: critical of Israel, often rightly. So then you say, all right, well,

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Speaker 2: why doesn't Australia just come out and do what the

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Speaker 2: UK or France has done and just say, oh, now

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Speaker 2: we recognize Palestine as a state. We're just going to

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Speaker 2: recognize it. Okay, well what state? Who? Hermas a mus

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Speaker 2: is still the government of Gaza. But everyone says that

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Speaker 2: the condition of the past unstated. A Musk can have

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Speaker 2: no role because they are literally a prescribed terrorist organization.

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Speaker 2: So to say, oh, now, actually it's okay for us stays.

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Speaker 2: That's fine, they can stay there. Say no, no, no,

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Speaker 2: a maus has to go. So all right, well, what

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Speaker 2: if the people of Gaza vote for Hamas. What if

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Speaker 2: the same people under the same name or even a

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Speaker 2: different name run for election and get voted in. You're

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Speaker 2: going to say no, no, you voted the wrong way.

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Speaker 2: You're not allowed to do that. You could, you know,

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Speaker 2: you can have democracy, but only if you vote the

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Speaker 2: way we tell you to, because that's how Mask got

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Speaker 2: in last time they were elected. They not voted. That

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Speaker 2: is why they are still officially the government of Gaza.

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Speaker 2: So is that the state that the protesters want Australia

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Speaker 2: to just unilaterally recognize, not that even if they did that,

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Speaker 2: even it would make the slow difference whatsoever. Australia or

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Speaker 2: France or the UK doesn't just get to decide to

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Speaker 2: wish a country into existence and it just happens. And that,

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Speaker 2: of course is just Garza. That's just one part of

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Speaker 2: the future Palestinian state. What about the West Bank. West

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Speaker 2: Bank is run by a completely different government, completely different

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Speaker 2: organization by Fatah, which hates ha Mass and it's terrified

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Speaker 2: of for Mass because if they had an election in

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Speaker 2: the West Bank, Mass would probably win there too, or

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Speaker 2: at least would have before the whole you know, who

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Speaker 2: are with the civil war and the terrorist atrocities and everything.

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Speaker 2: And of course even in the West Bank, you've got Hebron,

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Speaker 2: shake of Hebron saying no, we want to declare ourselves

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Speaker 2: our own independent kind of Palestine, align ourselves with other

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Speaker 2: Arab states, recognize Israel. Hebron's largest city in the West Bank.

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Speaker 2: So now you've got three Palestinian states run by three

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Speaker 2: different parties, organizations, systems of government. Do you just recognize

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Speaker 2: all of them? Like what actually happens? And this is

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Speaker 2: a thing. It's fine to jump up and down and

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Speaker 2: say how upset you are, how outraged you are about

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Speaker 2: whatever's happening over there. And I get it, I'm upset,

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Speaker 2: I'm outraged. You couldn't be human and not be upset

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Speaker 2: and outraged by what's happening. But what do you want

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Speaker 2: to happen? How do you want to fix it? What's

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Speaker 2: your plan that you've got in your head that you're

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Speaker 2: so sure about that makes you smarter than the smartest

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Speaker 2: brains on the planet who haven't been able to fix

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Speaker 2: this for the last eighty years. But now you just

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Speaker 2: go and have a protest, go and have a march,

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Speaker 2: do a few chance, that'll solve everything. That is what

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Speaker 2: I don't get. Now. The other big story this week is,

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Speaker 2: of course, the arrest of this alleged Chinese spy operating

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Speaker 2: in camera infiltrating a Buddhist club. Now, I've got to say,

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Speaker 2: I know a lot of people have made a lot

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Speaker 2: of sacrifices for their country, but this, to me seems

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Speaker 2: the ultimate one. I cannot think of anything more boring,

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Speaker 2: more soul crushingly, earnest and dull than having to infiltrate

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Speaker 2: a Buddhist club when you're not even a Buddhist. I mean,

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Speaker 2: that is a level of commitment. You almost kind of think,

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Speaker 2: I wish you'd got away with it, you know, because

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Speaker 2: once you're there, I mean, I don't know, how long

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Speaker 2: do you have to meditate for before you achieve self

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Speaker 2: actualization and nirvana? What if you're there doing it, just

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Speaker 2: sitting there doing the full lotus, you don't even think

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Speaker 2: you're gonna get there, you don't even believe in it,

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Speaker 2: and everyone else has like got their manager there. You

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Speaker 2: just have to sit there through that, knowing that you're

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Speaker 2: never going to get there, knowing that the only true

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Speaker 2: nirvana is the People's Republic of China. I mean that

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Speaker 2: is that is commitment anyway, alleged, led, alleged, alledged, alleged,

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Speaker 2: but great work by our spooks both here and abroad.

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Speaker 2: But ASIO obviously the domestic spy agency which uncovered this,

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Speaker 2: and then of course the AFP which publicly arrested this person,

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Speaker 2: a Chinese national who was a permanent resident of Australia.

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Speaker 2: And the most interesting thing about this, this was done

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Speaker 2: under new laws that were just recently passed. And the

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Speaker 2: most interesting thing is that this was public and it

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Speaker 2: was done under new laws which obviously publicly passed, and

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Speaker 2: it was done by after Mike Burgess, the head of AZO,

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Speaker 2: the Director General of AZIO very publicly said we know

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Speaker 2: that China is in here. It's got its fingers in

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Speaker 2: our pie. We know you're crawling all over the joint

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Speaker 2: and we'd like you to stop it please because it's

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Speaker 2: costing us a lot of money. Cost more than ten

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Speaker 2: billion bucks I think in the last year thirteen billion

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Speaker 2: something like that in the last year. Foreign interference is

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Speaker 2: costing us. And that is the interesting thing about all this,

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Speaker 2: not that it's happening, because it's always happening. You should

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Speaker 2: just assume that spies are just crawling among us all

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Speaker 2: the time, but that it's public. Usually these things get

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Speaker 2: taken care of behind closed doors. Someone might just be

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Speaker 2: quietly booted out of the country, or a spying network

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Speaker 2: or a capability might just be quietly disabled. And again

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Speaker 2: you also have diplomats in Australia who are effectively spying

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Speaker 2: all the time, but they have diplomatic community and we

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Speaker 2: know they're doing it, but there's nothing much we can

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Speaker 2: do about it because of course if we crack down

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Speaker 2: too hard on them. And guess what, our diplomats who

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Speaker 2: are doing the exact same thing in other countries they

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Speaker 2: get cracked down on as well. So there's a sort

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Speaker 2: of thing. It's almost like a gentleman's agreement that all

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Speaker 2: of this stuff is going on, and everyone's gathering information

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Speaker 2: and reporting back to their respective governments. And again this

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Speaker 2: is not James Bond stuff. This is not jumping out

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Speaker 2: of helicopters or you know, unearthing secret lairs at the

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Speaker 2: bottom of volcanoes. This is people who often have perfectly

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Speaker 2: normal or you know, respectable day jobs. Again, they'll often

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Speaker 2: be diplomats or people who work in various overseas roles

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Speaker 2: who will just be doing a little bit of spying

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Speaker 2: on the side. You know, what did you learn today, buddy, Well,

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Speaker 2: I learned that you know, China is ramping up its

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Speaker 2: surveillance of the Taiwan Straits. Oh great, So this sort

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Speaker 2: of thing sort of happens all the time, and so

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Speaker 2: the fact that this has been made public is actually

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Speaker 2: the most interesting thing about it, in my view, is

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Speaker 2: that the government is actually saying and again you get

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Speaker 2: all these people saying, oh, it isn't standing up to China. Actually,

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Speaker 2: this is what standing up to China looks like, saying,

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Speaker 2: you know what, you've crossed the line. You know you've

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Speaker 2: infiltrated the Buddhist Club. You know you can you can

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Speaker 2: take whatever you want, take the Bureau of Meteorology. We

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Speaker 2: know that you did that. But you touch our Buddhists

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Speaker 2: and you're going home, mister. So this is what it

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Speaker 2: actually looks like, and I think it shows that Australia

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Speaker 2: is actually standing up to China. It is actually we

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Speaker 2: are showing them that we know what they're up to

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Speaker 2: and maybe maybe that's our pathway to our own nirvana. Well,

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Speaker 2: it wouldn't be an episode of the real story if

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Speaker 2: we didn't have World War three on our doorstep. And

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Speaker 2: this week well kind of maybe it sort of is.

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Speaker 2: We've just had, of course, the Chinese spy alleged Chinese

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Speaker 2: spy be arrested in Canberra. We've got a new deal

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Speaker 2: with Japan to buy a whole fleet of frigates, which

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Speaker 2: we've been sorely needing for well over a decade now,

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Speaker 2: but basically had one bloken a rowboat circumnavigating the country.

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Speaker 2: And so we need an uber expert to tell us

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Speaker 2: what is actually happening in the region. Are we going

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Speaker 2: to go to war with China over Taiwan? What is

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Speaker 2: China trying to do with us or for us? And

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Speaker 2: we've got one. Jennifer Parker is the principal and founder

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Speaker 2: of Barrier Strategic Advisory. She's an Expert Associate at the

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Speaker 2: National Security College, the Australian National University and an adjunct

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Speaker 2: Fellow in Naval studies at the University of New South

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Speaker 2: Wales in Canberra and has twenty years experience working at

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Speaker 2: very senior levels in the Department of Defense. Jen, Welcome

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Speaker 2: to the real story. What did you make of the

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Speaker 2: revelations about the arrest of the Chinese alleged Chinese operative

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Speaker 2: in Canberra this week? I suppose it just shows how

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Speaker 2: omnipresent China's reach is in this region, doesn't it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it certainly does, Joe, and I think it comes

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Speaker 3: on the back to of quite an impactful speech from

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Speaker 3: the AZO Director General Mike Burgess last week where he

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Speaker 3: actually said that over the past three years there had

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Speaker 3: been twenty four major interference incidents. Now what that involves,

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Speaker 3: it's not exactly clear, but he's talking about this idea

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Speaker 3: of foreign interference costing the economy, you know, twelve point

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Speaker 3: five billion dollars in the last twelve months. So it is,

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Speaker 3: I guess, a public manifestation of what the AZIO director

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Speaker 3: has been talking about, saying that state actors, and particularly China,

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Speaker 3: not just China, There's been examples of Russia and Iraq

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Speaker 3: as well, and other countries are very interesting in what

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Speaker 3: Australia is doing. Now that's not just the Australian government

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Speaker 3: and the Australian military, but that's also as we see

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Speaker 3: from this reporting this week, the Chinese diaspora, and this

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Speaker 3: example is actually foreign interference where we've seen alleged, alleged

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Speaker 3: an Australian permanent resident actually infiltrating and reporting on a

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Speaker 3: group within the Chinese diaspora that is banned in China.

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Speaker 3: So we are seeing this permeate through Australia.

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Speaker 2: And this is obviously and again not talking about this

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Speaker 2: case generally, specifically before the courts, but generally it is

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Speaker 2: a common tactic, is it not of the Chinese Communist

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Speaker 2: Party to apply pressure on Chinese residents in Australia that

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Speaker 2: either a puts pressure on them in their lives here,

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Speaker 2: but also potentially on family members and relations back home

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Speaker 2: as well. So it sort of applies. It's a very

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Speaker 2: totalitarian approachase, isn't it It is.

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Speaker 1: It's not just in Australia.

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Speaker 3: It is happening through kind of a Chinese United Front's

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Speaker 3: work concept around the world, but Australia has had a

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Speaker 3: number of experiences of this now and no, look, this

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Speaker 3: is only the third charges laid under our kind of

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Speaker 3: semi recent twenty eighteen foreign interference laws, but there are

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Speaker 3: other examples, and there's been a lot of investigations into

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Speaker 3: pressure applied through Chinese media in Australia and Chinese social

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Speaker 3: media in Australia, that pressure on the Chinese diaspora to

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Speaker 3: either influenced thinking around elections or other debates within Australia.

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Speaker 3: In fact, there was I can't remember which channel, maybe

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Speaker 3: I can't mention here anyway, there was an interesting documentary

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Speaker 3: in terms of how this was applied through things like

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Speaker 3: the Yes campaign in Australia and the debate around that,

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Speaker 3: and how there was actually a pressure on the Chinese

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Speaker 3: diaspora around this, which seems a little bit strange, but

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Speaker 3: it is part of this broader foreign interference issue that

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Speaker 3: we're experiencing in Australia. And from the Director General Azio's

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Speaker 3: speech last week, it's only going to get worse and

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Speaker 3: that kind of reflects that the greater global uncertainty.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right, and it d election campaigns as well,

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Speaker 2: whether or not there's been tacit or subtle pressure put

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Speaker 2: on the Chinese community here to vote one way or

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Speaker 2: the other, because that's what the CCP perceives to be

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Speaker 2: in China's national interest as well. What do you make

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Speaker 2: of the fact that it was this was done so publicly,

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Speaker 2: obviously under the new laws as well, But these things

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Speaker 2: are often taken care of covertly. You know, ASIO will

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Speaker 2: be aware of things and will monitor them or disable

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Speaker 2: what is going on without it being made public. The

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Speaker 2: fact that this has been made public, do you think

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Speaker 2: this is a deliberate attempt by our security agencies to

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Speaker 2: send a message to Beijing to say, look, we know

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Speaker 2: what you're doing, please stop it.

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Speaker 3: Look look, I think it probably is, and I think

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Speaker 3: that you've again you've got to read that in the

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Speaker 3: messaging that we're seeing from Mike Burgess the directional Asia,

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Speaker 3: where he's becoming increasingly public about some of the incidents.

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Speaker 3: I mean his speech last week he described a range

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Speaker 3: of incidents where foreign actors, Now you can read which foreign.

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Speaker 1: Actors they are. I think it's pretty obvious buying up.

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Speaker 3: Infrastructure around bases, are encouraging some of their agents to

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Speaker 3: apply for government jobs, and he gives a list of examples.

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Speaker 3: So I think the AFP's releasing of these charges having

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Speaker 3: been laid and their statement is pretty clear is part

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Speaker 3: of this I think broader campaign. And that's why I

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Speaker 3: refer so much to my Burgess's speech last week, because

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Speaker 3: it is I think it's making trying to make the

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Speaker 3: general public aware of this pressure.

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Speaker 2: That's right. The first law of spycraft is you don't

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Speaker 2: tell people what you're doing. But he's actually come out

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Speaker 2: and said, look, we see you, we know what you're doing,

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Speaker 2: and you know, I just don't think you care about

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Speaker 2: Speaking more broadly, you wrote a great piece recently about

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Speaker 2: China and its long term ambitions for Taiwan and in

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Speaker 2: the region more generally. But what is China's endgame in

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Speaker 2: your view? Is it just to we know they openly

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Speaker 2: say Taiwan is in a real country, it's part of us.

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Speaker 2: We want it back. Is that their endgame there? Do

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Speaker 2: they say once that's the one United China, do they

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Speaker 2: just stop or are they going to continue to want

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Speaker 2: to assert assert their authority in the region, control all

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Speaker 2: the sea lanes, like in the South China Sea where

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Speaker 2: they're sort of building these man made islands. Are they

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Speaker 2: going to want assert to assert more sort of economic

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Speaker 2: and strategic dominance over other people in the region. What

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Speaker 2: is China's end What do they want jen.

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Speaker 1: Well, look, if I knew that, I'd probably be a billionaire.

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Speaker 3: But I guess some of the key some of the

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Speaker 3: key elements of this is China certainly sees reunification of Taiwan.

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Speaker 3: Now there are debates about whether it was ever part

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Speaker 3: of Pia China. In fact, Taiwan as it is now

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Speaker 3: was never part of the People's Republic of China, which

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Speaker 3: came about in nineteen forty nine after the Civil War.

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Speaker 3: But clearly they see the island of Formosa as part

430
00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:26,440
Speaker 3: of their core interests, and they have stated that they

431
00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:30,440
Speaker 3: also see control over the South China Sea as part

432
00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:32,760
Speaker 3: of their core interests. And China is kind of working

433
00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:36,000
Speaker 3: towards this national rejuvenation, and they've got a number of

434
00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:38,960
Speaker 3: goals under this national rejuvenation which needs to occur by

435
00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:41,800
Speaker 3: twenty forty nine, twenty forty nine being the one hundredth

436
00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:45,440
Speaker 3: anniversary of the People's Republic of China. Those goals are

437
00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:48,320
Speaker 3: economic in nature, they are military in nature, they are

438
00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:51,720
Speaker 3: political in nature when it comes to Taiwan. Look, I

439
00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:55,480
Speaker 3: think China's been incredibly clear, and if anyone is unclear

440
00:25:55,520 --> 00:25:56,640
Speaker 3: on their message, you need to.

441
00:25:56,680 --> 00:25:58,120
Speaker 2: Just watch the footage of the.

442
00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:02,760
Speaker 3: Joint military deurials they are doing around Taiwan now on

443
00:26:03,119 --> 00:26:06,480
Speaker 3: a fairly regular basis. You know, they're releasing cartoons of

444
00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:11,320
Speaker 3: missiles striking Taiwan, They're releasing cartoons of the president of

445
00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:16,040
Speaker 3: Taiwan as a parasite leaking over time. This is quite aggressive,

446
00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:18,760
Speaker 3: and I think, you know, I think China hasn't decided

447
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:20,680
Speaker 3: to get what they intend to do with Taiwan.

448
00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:23,280
Speaker 1: I think, you know, the Chinese Communist.

449
00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:26,199
Speaker 3: Party would very much like Taiwan to just agree, but

450
00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:29,560
Speaker 3: that is not going to happen. And certainly the recent

451
00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:34,520
Speaker 3: election beginning of last year of President Lighting Chai, many

452
00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:38,760
Speaker 3: of his statements around the relationship between China and Taiwan

453
00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:43,280
Speaker 3: have become I guess, more clear about how he sees

454
00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:46,480
Speaker 3: that relationship. And that's certainly not what the CCP is likely.

455
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:48,840
Speaker 3: So where does this all end? Look, I don't think

456
00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:51,480
Speaker 3: we know, but we can't take off the cards the

457
00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:54,360
Speaker 3: chances of some sort of military conflict, right, So it's

458
00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:57,160
Speaker 3: not inevitable, but it is increasingly likely. When we are

459
00:26:57,200 --> 00:27:00,960
Speaker 3: seeing China conduct stockpiling a certain goals and commodities, we

460
00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:06,000
Speaker 3: are seeing this increased the increased size and the increased

461
00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:09,440
Speaker 3: complexity of these drills around Taiwan, the increased strength in

462
00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:12,080
Speaker 3: their propaganda, and so the idea of China attempting to

463
00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:15,760
Speaker 3: either blockade or invade Taiwan in the new future, I think,

464
00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:18,200
Speaker 3: although not inevitable, is certainly not off the cards, and

465
00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:21,000
Speaker 3: it's something that the region Australia needs to be prepared for.

466
00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:25,639
Speaker 3: But I think it extends beyond Taiwan. It is about

467
00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:29,520
Speaker 3: China having a degree of control which they intend to

468
00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:34,840
Speaker 3: assert militarily over the region, both Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia.

469
00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:36,800
Speaker 2: Which of course China historically has It's really only been

470
00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:39,359
Speaker 2: in the last sort of century or two that China

471
00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:43,399
Speaker 2: hasn't been the absolute master of all its surveys. So

472
00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:46,440
Speaker 2: I suppose they said, well, I don't suppose they openly

473
00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:49,600
Speaker 2: say that this is actually just reasserting China's sort of

474
00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:53,959
Speaker 2: historic right. What does that mean for Australia. So if

475
00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:57,919
Speaker 2: there is if China does attempt to retake Taiwa or

476
00:27:57,920 --> 00:28:02,520
Speaker 2: take Taiwan and and invade it, if the US then

477
00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:06,360
Speaker 2: gets drawn into that conflict and in is defending Taiwan,

478
00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:09,639
Speaker 2: and it has you know, sort of deliberately ambiguous and

479
00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:13,199
Speaker 2: has actually called an ambiguous stands on Taiwan, but it

480
00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:17,199
Speaker 2: seems that the US would be prepared to defend it

481
00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:22,800
Speaker 2: in such a case. Does Australia then get drawn into that?

482
00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:26,520
Speaker 2: I mean, the Ances Treaty obviously obliges US to consult

483
00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:29,440
Speaker 2: with the US anytime there's a threat to US. Would

484
00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:32,639
Speaker 2: that constitute a threat to the US and therefore Australia

485
00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:35,440
Speaker 2: would ANSAs would be triggered and we'd have to join

486
00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:38,240
Speaker 2: in or would that require a separate commitment from Australia

487
00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:41,240
Speaker 2: And then if we didn't give that commitment, would that

488
00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:43,880
Speaker 2: mean that Orcus is off the cards? I mean, there's this.

489
00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:46,280
Speaker 2: There's a real sort of house of cards here, isn't there?

490
00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:47,200
Speaker 1: There is?

491
00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:48,840
Speaker 3: And this is really kind of one of the key

492
00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:51,960
Speaker 3: questions at the center of Australia's strategy debate right now.

493
00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:54,160
Speaker 3: I guess before I get to that, i'd just say that,

494
00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:57,000
Speaker 3: you know, China, of course, is an incredibly powerful economy.

495
00:28:57,520 --> 00:29:00,280
Speaker 3: It has a huge population. Although it hasn't challenge just

496
00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:02,600
Speaker 3: with that, that's a huge population. It is a key

497
00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:04,120
Speaker 3: player in this region and we do need to have

498
00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:08,040
Speaker 3: a constructive relationship. But when it comes to their aggression

499
00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:12,120
Speaker 3: in the cyber domain, the space domain, the maritime domain.

500
00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:14,680
Speaker 3: It is not in Australia's interest to exist in a

501
00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:17,960
Speaker 3: region where we're subject to that degree of coercion. And

502
00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:20,360
Speaker 3: you know, we've talked about the economic coercion at length

503
00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:21,920
Speaker 3: in our media, but you know, we don't talk so

504
00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:24,640
Speaker 3: much about the experiences that our adf women and men

505
00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:27,640
Speaker 3: have in Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia where our assets,

506
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:31,320
Speaker 3: you know, our planes, our aircraft operating in international airspace

507
00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:35,320
Speaker 3: and international seas are harassed by Chinese vessels.

508
00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:36,600
Speaker 1: So this there is, is this.

509
00:29:36,520 --> 00:29:39,720
Speaker 3: Military aggression over Taiwan. Look, I think we need to

510
00:29:39,720 --> 00:29:43,200
Speaker 3: think about this debate a little bit differently. I don't

511
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:47,040
Speaker 3: see if China makes a decision to invade Taiwan, they

512
00:29:47,080 --> 00:29:49,200
Speaker 3: need to go one hundred and miles across the strait.

513
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:53,480
Speaker 3: That's a long way with a big invasion force. Taiwan itself,

514
00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:57,360
Speaker 3: geographically is an ireland, is very difficult to invade because

515
00:29:57,360 --> 00:30:00,040
Speaker 3: of the nature of beaches, because of the mountains. I

516
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:03,400
Speaker 3: even getting to Taipei, you'd have to fight through jungle,

517
00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:05,320
Speaker 3: you'd have to fight through mountains. So it's a really

518
00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:08,720
Speaker 3: difficult prospect. And in fact, during World War Two, because

519
00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:11,000
Speaker 3: of course there is a long history of Japan having

520
00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:15,440
Speaker 3: colonized Taiwan. During World War Two, the US actually planned

521
00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:18,920
Speaker 3: initially as part of their campaign moving north, taking islands

522
00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:21,080
Speaker 3: to the north, which ended in them taking ok An.

523
00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:24,720
Speaker 3: Hour they planned to take Taiwan, they actually didn't because

524
00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:28,200
Speaker 3: it was such a difficult military task, so they abandoned it.

525
00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:30,280
Speaker 3: So I think if you think about an invasion Taiwan

526
00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:32,720
Speaker 3: in that context, if China makes the decision to do it,

527
00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:35,320
Speaker 3: my view is that this would be a regional conflict instantly,

528
00:30:35,640 --> 00:30:38,760
Speaker 3: because any military planner looking at that is unlikely to

529
00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:41,880
Speaker 3: leave US and Japanese assets to the north of them

530
00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:45,080
Speaker 3: as they attempt this difficult feat or US assets to

531
00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:46,960
Speaker 3: the south of them in the Philippines. So I think

532
00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:50,000
Speaker 3: that if China made the decision, you may well see

533
00:30:50,560 --> 00:30:53,920
Speaker 3: preemptive strikes on US assets in the region, in Japan

534
00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:56,520
Speaker 3: and the Philippines. And in that context, if that happens,

535
00:30:56,840 --> 00:30:58,880
Speaker 3: then actually what you're looking at as a regional conflict

536
00:30:58,920 --> 00:31:03,520
Speaker 3: where's key alli and til It's key partners have been engaged.

537
00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:07,640
Speaker 3: You're looking at a contested maritime DeMay where Australia as

538
00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:10,640
Speaker 3: a trading nation will be severely impacted. I mean, we

539
00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:12,680
Speaker 3: import ninety one percent of our fuel at the moment

540
00:31:12,720 --> 00:31:15,000
Speaker 3: in a refined state that comes from Northeast Asia and

541
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:18,960
Speaker 3: Southeast Asia. It is difficult to see a scenario where

542
00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:22,120
Speaker 3: in that context Australia isn't directly threatened in terms of

543
00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:26,160
Speaker 3: not our geography necessarily, but our vital interests. So we're

544
00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:29,080
Speaker 3: involved in that scenario. Now, in terms of the ancest Treaty,

545
00:31:29,080 --> 00:31:32,479
Speaker 3: there's different arguments about the interpretation of the eleven articles

546
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:34,920
Speaker 3: in the ancest Treaty. Yes, there is a duty to consult.

547
00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:38,120
Speaker 3: There is also some degree of a duty to respond.

548
00:31:38,200 --> 00:31:41,360
Speaker 3: Now it's not like Article five in NATO, but there

549
00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:43,320
Speaker 3: is some sort of obligation. And I think there would

550
00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:46,200
Speaker 3: be an expectation of Australia, but not just the expectation.

551
00:31:46,560 --> 00:31:48,440
Speaker 3: I mean we need to think back to what are

552
00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:52,600
Speaker 3: our national interests, and our national interests would be significantly impacted.

553
00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:55,120
Speaker 3: So I think we would be involved. Should we be

554
00:31:55,200 --> 00:31:58,760
Speaker 3: pre committing to have deals on submarines. No, as you

555
00:31:58,800 --> 00:32:01,640
Speaker 3: mentioned before, the US position is one of strategic ambiguity.

556
00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:05,440
Speaker 3: No government of Australia should either privately or publicly commit

557
00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:08,200
Speaker 3: to a hypothetical scenario and that's what we're talking about.

558
00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:10,760
Speaker 3: But we should understand that in the event of a

559
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:13,880
Speaker 3: regional conflict, it would be difficult for Australia not to

560
00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:16,800
Speaker 3: be involved, and as I said before, Australia would likely

561
00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:17,360
Speaker 3: to cut off.

562
00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:23,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly. And speaking of obviously the August deal is

563
00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:28,480
Speaker 2: under review quote unquote by the Trump administration. How much

564
00:32:28,920 --> 00:32:31,880
Speaker 2: is this kind of performative and how much do you

565
00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:37,920
Speaker 2: think the treaty is actually the pact is actually under

566
00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:43,440
Speaker 2: threat or under real sort of consideration, Because of course

567
00:32:43,560 --> 00:32:46,880
Speaker 2: Trump came out with Kiir Starmer and at least didn't

568
00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:50,400
Speaker 2: interrupt him when Kis Starmer said that unless the UK

569
00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:54,000
Speaker 2: part of August was absolutely one hundred percent going ahead,

570
00:32:54,640 --> 00:32:58,880
Speaker 2: do you think that this review by you know, the Pentagon,

571
00:32:59,120 --> 00:33:04,160
Speaker 2: is actually Trump about to tear up ucast or is

572
00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:07,720
Speaker 2: it just him posturing to put himself in a better

573
00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:11,440
Speaker 2: position so that when he does meet Albanezi he can say, look,

574
00:33:11,560 --> 00:33:14,120
Speaker 2: you increased defense spending to three percent, or you know,

575
00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:15,200
Speaker 2: the chicken gets it.

576
00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:19,320
Speaker 3: Well, maybe the chicken gets it, but look, actually, I

577
00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:23,160
Speaker 3: think you know, when it comes to August, we need

578
00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:25,120
Speaker 3: to remember that there is a lot in this deal

579
00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:27,560
Speaker 3: for the US, So I can't predict the future. Again,

580
00:33:27,600 --> 00:33:29,360
Speaker 3: if I could predict the future, i'd be a billionaire.

581
00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:31,240
Speaker 1: But I think if we think about.

582
00:33:31,000 --> 00:33:32,880
Speaker 3: The core interest of the US, so the ability to

583
00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:36,440
Speaker 3: operate from Australia, the ability to expand their maintenance base

584
00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:40,600
Speaker 3: for submarines because we'll be able to maintain submarines in Australia,

585
00:33:40,640 --> 00:33:43,760
Speaker 3: and then the wider support Australia support provides, including things

586
00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:46,720
Speaker 3: like you know on Northwest Cape where we support the

587
00:33:46,800 --> 00:33:49,200
Speaker 3: US's ability to communicate with a nuclear submarines through our

588
00:33:49,240 --> 00:33:52,480
Speaker 3: communication station. I think the wider relationship as well plays

589
00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:55,200
Speaker 3: into this. So I think it's highly unlikely the US

590
00:33:55,240 --> 00:33:57,080
Speaker 3: is going to decide that AUCUST is not in their

591
00:33:57,080 --> 00:34:00,040
Speaker 3: interests and rip it up. They didn't enter Aucus for

592
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:03,240
Speaker 3: altruistic reasons. No country does things like this altri risk.

593
00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:06,400
Speaker 3: All three countries entered AUCUST for their own national interests,

594
00:34:06,440 --> 00:34:08,600
Speaker 3: and those national interests aren't the same. So I think

595
00:34:08,640 --> 00:34:10,920
Speaker 3: it is a great benefit to the US if you

596
00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:12,759
Speaker 3: think about it in that context, then I think that

597
00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:15,080
Speaker 3: they will do everything they can to make it work,

598
00:34:15,120 --> 00:34:17,360
Speaker 3: and that to be fair. The person leading the review,

599
00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:19,520
Speaker 3: Eldridge Colby, actually said that when he went through his

600
00:34:19,560 --> 00:34:22,919
Speaker 3: Senate confirmation hearings in January this year. I also don't

601
00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:24,799
Speaker 3: think this review was directed by Trump. In fact, there's

602
00:34:24,800 --> 00:34:27,000
Speaker 3: a lot of evidence that UCUST is not a focus

603
00:34:27,040 --> 00:34:29,640
Speaker 3: of Trump. He's more focused on Europe, he's more focused

604
00:34:29,680 --> 00:34:32,640
Speaker 3: on the Middle East. This was directed internally in the Pentagon.

605
00:34:32,800 --> 00:34:34,920
Speaker 3: Now there are pressures and Arinsk to AUCUST. The US

606
00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:39,040
Speaker 3: submarine industrial base is one, but I would argue three

607
00:34:39,120 --> 00:34:43,040
Speaker 3: submarines in the thirties, so under AUCUST Phase two, Australia

608
00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:45,440
Speaker 3: is meant to be sold through Virginia class submarines to

609
00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:47,880
Speaker 3: get us starting to operate the capability before we be

610
00:34:47,960 --> 00:34:52,000
Speaker 3: at our own three submarines in the thirties for the

611
00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:55,200
Speaker 3: US on paper versus everything they get out of the

612
00:34:55,280 --> 00:34:57,759
Speaker 3: Orcist deal. I mean, to be honest, you can see

613
00:34:57,760 --> 00:34:59,560
Speaker 3: they're getting a lot out of it. So I'm not

614
00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:01,799
Speaker 3: sure that to rip it up, will they change it? Sorry,

615
00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:03,359
Speaker 3: I don't think they're going to rip it up at all.

616
00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:05,520
Speaker 1: Will that change it? Maybe?

617
00:35:05,680 --> 00:35:08,360
Speaker 3: Will that be real changes or just changes around the rhetoric?

618
00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:10,879
Speaker 3: So it looks like a win potentially. I mean, we've

619
00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:13,400
Speaker 3: seen that play out in the tariffs in terms of

620
00:35:13,520 --> 00:35:16,880
Speaker 3: using orcus of leverage. Look probably so if we look

621
00:35:16,920 --> 00:35:20,920
Speaker 3: at the way Donald Trump approached NATO and the NATO

622
00:35:21,000 --> 00:35:23,360
Speaker 3: conference in June this year, I mean at the beginning

623
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:25,160
Speaker 3: of the year when Trump took over, there was a

624
00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:27,719
Speaker 3: lot of concern that the US might pull out of NATO, right,

625
00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:31,160
Speaker 3: this was a real concern. He refused to endorse Article five.

626
00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:32,920
Speaker 3: In fact, in June when he got on the plane

627
00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:36,480
Speaker 3: to the NATO conference, he's like, oh, there's different interpretations.

628
00:35:35,760 --> 00:35:36,400
Speaker 2: Of that article.

629
00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:39,880
Speaker 3: I mean, it's written in plain English, there's no different interpretations.

630
00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:43,480
Speaker 3: But what he was doing is using its leverage US

631
00:35:43,520 --> 00:35:46,200
Speaker 3: commitment to NATO, US commitment to Article five, which is

632
00:35:46,239 --> 00:35:48,280
Speaker 3: an attack on all, attack on one is an attack

633
00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:50,680
Speaker 3: on all. He's using it as leverage to get the

634
00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:52,520
Speaker 3: NATO countries to do what he wants them to do,

635
00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:55,520
Speaker 3: which is to increase spending. And it's not only Trump

636
00:35:55,560 --> 00:35:58,120
Speaker 3: that's been saying that. I mean different US administrations have

637
00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:00,719
Speaker 3: been saying that since like two thousand. I found a

638
00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:02,960
Speaker 3: quote from condoles Arise in two thousand, before she took

639
00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:06,600
Speaker 3: over as a national security advisor, saying, Hey, Europe need

640
00:36:06,640 --> 00:36:08,920
Speaker 3: to spend more on defense and do more on conventional defense.

641
00:36:09,719 --> 00:36:12,759
Speaker 3: The moment Europe agreed to the three point five percent

642
00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:15,799
Speaker 3: on defense plus one point five percent on national infrastructure,

643
00:36:15,800 --> 00:36:19,399
Speaker 3: the big five percent of defense spending. Trump sat there

644
00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:21,320
Speaker 3: with Mark Ruther and said, yeah, of course.

645
00:36:23,120 --> 00:36:25,120
Speaker 2: It's a great it's a great pack. It's a great pack.

646
00:36:25,160 --> 00:36:28,200
Speaker 2: We're going to have a great time, probably the best ever.

647
00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:33,279
Speaker 2: And finally, jed, speaking of defense spending, We've just done

648
00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:36,440
Speaker 2: a deal with the Japanese to buy a bunch of

649
00:36:37,120 --> 00:36:40,680
Speaker 2: navel destroyers. This is a long time coming, isn't it.

650
00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:44,120
Speaker 2: I mean, we've heard these nightmare stories about Australia's defense

651
00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:46,640
Speaker 2: capability where there have been reports that there was only

652
00:36:46,680 --> 00:36:49,320
Speaker 2: one boat in the water at any given point in time.

653
00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:55,000
Speaker 2: How important is this for both Australia's national security and

654
00:36:55,040 --> 00:36:58,480
Speaker 2: again I suppose sending a message to the Americans that yes,

655
00:36:58,520 --> 00:37:01,080
Speaker 2: we are serious about spending. We're not just going to

656
00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:04,400
Speaker 2: ride on their coattails, and we are going to bulk

657
00:37:04,440 --> 00:37:05,839
Speaker 2: up our own capability as well.

658
00:37:06,360 --> 00:37:07,800
Speaker 1: Okay, it's a really important decision.

659
00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:10,719
Speaker 3: So the Australian government has selected the Japanese upgrade of

660
00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:12,000
Speaker 3: Magami Forget.

661
00:37:12,040 --> 00:37:14,200
Speaker 1: We're going to acquire eleven of those.

662
00:37:14,400 --> 00:37:16,399
Speaker 3: Three will be built in Japan and the other eight

663
00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:19,880
Speaker 3: supposedly built in Australia not coming until twenty thirty, so

664
00:37:19,880 --> 00:37:21,799
Speaker 3: there's a time from issue. But it's very important because

665
00:37:21,800 --> 00:37:24,759
Speaker 3: you've got to remember, as somebody on the ABC may

666
00:37:24,760 --> 00:37:26,600
Speaker 3: fund me for saying this, but it's true, Australia is

667
00:37:26,600 --> 00:37:28,440
Speaker 3: an island nation, right. We forget this when we think

668
00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:31,480
Speaker 3: about our strategic geography. So this idea that we could

669
00:37:31,560 --> 00:37:34,160
Speaker 3: just have missiles and UAVs on our borders and protect

670
00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:36,640
Speaker 3: ourselves is kind of null and void because you don't

671
00:37:36,680 --> 00:37:39,319
Speaker 3: need to step foot on Australia to impact Australia's national

672
00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:41,719
Speaker 3: security interests. All you need to do is interdict the

673
00:37:41,840 --> 00:37:44,280
Speaker 3: ninety one percent of fuel we import or the fertilizer

674
00:37:44,360 --> 00:37:46,400
Speaker 3: we imported all yet like you just need to interdict

675
00:37:46,440 --> 00:37:49,240
Speaker 3: this in the maritime domain. So having a strong navy

676
00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:53,000
Speaker 3: really mitigates against that. When you look back at the

677
00:37:53,040 --> 00:37:54,840
Speaker 3: state of our navy. You know the two thousand and

678
00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:57,919
Speaker 3: nine white paper nearly twenty years ago now said hey,

679
00:37:58,040 --> 00:38:00,600
Speaker 3: we need to replace our ends out class, so we

680
00:38:00,600 --> 00:38:02,000
Speaker 3: need to do a bunch of other things like get

681
00:38:02,000 --> 00:38:02,840
Speaker 3: twelve submarines.

682
00:38:03,640 --> 00:38:05,160
Speaker 1: We are in twenty.

683
00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:07,279
Speaker 3: Twenty five and we still hadn't had a concrete plan

684
00:38:07,400 --> 00:38:09,680
Speaker 3: really to replace our Inxact class frigates. There was some

685
00:38:09,719 --> 00:38:11,560
Speaker 3: stuff around the Hunter that we won't delve into that.

686
00:38:12,160 --> 00:38:14,160
Speaker 3: So we have actually gotten to the point where the

687
00:38:14,239 --> 00:38:17,160
Speaker 3: a Andao said in twenty nineteen, our current frigates are

688
00:38:17,160 --> 00:38:19,000
Speaker 3: so old, the holes are sold degraded, They're not going

689
00:38:19,040 --> 00:38:20,200
Speaker 3: to last much longer.

690
00:38:21,040 --> 00:38:22,600
Speaker 1: So we really need to make this decision.

691
00:38:23,000 --> 00:38:25,200
Speaker 3: Maybe is in a bad state in terms of you know,

692
00:38:25,200 --> 00:38:27,359
Speaker 3: despite the hard working women and men, they have ten

693
00:38:27,400 --> 00:38:30,440
Speaker 3: frigates and destroyers, ten frigates and destroyers for a country

694
00:38:30,440 --> 00:38:33,560
Speaker 3: that imports ninety one percent of its fuel is bananas.

695
00:38:34,000 --> 00:38:37,800
Speaker 3: So this was an important decision. Will the US like it, Yes,

696
00:38:37,840 --> 00:38:39,680
Speaker 3: because it is a demonstration that we are trying to

697
00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:43,400
Speaker 3: strengthen our defense capability, but still we are not increasing

698
00:38:43,400 --> 00:38:45,880
Speaker 3: defense spending to the rate they would like at this stage.

699
00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:48,160
Speaker 3: And we do need to do so, not just because

700
00:38:48,239 --> 00:38:50,680
Speaker 3: the US says, but because we actually don't have the

701
00:38:50,760 --> 00:38:53,760
Speaker 3: range of capabilities. We need to protect our own national interest,

702
00:38:53,840 --> 00:38:56,160
Speaker 3: so this needs to be an important national conversation. Frigates

703
00:38:56,200 --> 00:38:58,080
Speaker 3: is a good step, but we need to go further.

704
00:38:58,200 --> 00:39:00,239
Speaker 2: And I dare say an announcement to that effect. We'll

705
00:39:00,280 --> 00:39:04,040
Speaker 2: probably come after Anthony Alberanezi and Donald Trump finally get

706
00:39:04,080 --> 00:39:08,200
Speaker 2: the world's most sought after bilateral meeting. Jen Parker, thank

707
00:39:08,239 --> 00:39:09,719
Speaker 2: you so much for joining us on the Real Story.

708
00:39:09,719 --> 00:39:10,720
Speaker 2: It's been an absolute pleasure.

709
00:39:11,200 --> 00:39:12,200
Speaker 1: Thanks so much, Joe.

710
00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:15,120
Speaker 2: And that is all we have time for this week.

711
00:39:15,239 --> 00:39:17,480
Speaker 2: Once again, we've given you peace in the Middle East

712
00:39:17,520 --> 00:39:21,600
Speaker 2: and we've prevented World War three with China. You're welcome Australia.

713
00:39:22,440 --> 00:39:25,080
Speaker 2: Please join us again next week. But in the meantime

714
00:39:25,120 --> 00:39:27,799
Speaker 2: you can leave us a review, or you can leave

715
00:39:27,880 --> 00:39:30,279
Speaker 2: us a five star rating. I don't know if there

716
00:39:30,280 --> 00:39:33,759
Speaker 2: are any other ratings available hypothetical point, let's not get

717
00:39:33,800 --> 00:39:37,120
Speaker 2: bogged down in academic minutia. You can also drop us

718
00:39:37,120 --> 00:39:40,480
Speaker 2: a line at The Real Story at Nova podcast dot

719
00:39:40,480 --> 00:39:43,319
Speaker 2: com dot au, or you can hit me up on

720
00:39:43,360 --> 00:39:47,120
Speaker 2: the Gram Joe Underscore Hildebrand slide with my DMS. You've

721
00:39:47,120 --> 00:39:49,479
Speaker 2: got any questions or anything you want us to look into,

722
00:39:49,520 --> 00:39:51,719
Speaker 2: and thank you for all the comments and questions and

723
00:39:51,800 --> 00:39:55,120
Speaker 2: messages I've gotten thus far. Just drop us a line

724
00:39:55,160 --> 00:39:57,520
Speaker 2: and we'll get into it. Any questions you want answered.

725
00:39:57,600 --> 00:39:59,800
Speaker 2: Trust me, I know everything so more than happy to

726
00:39:59,840 --> 00:40:02,759
Speaker 2: shar Yeah. You can also grab me in the News

727
00:40:02,800 --> 00:40:07,120
Speaker 2: Corp newspapers every Monday and Saturday. And if that doesn't

728
00:40:07,320 --> 00:40:10,279
Speaker 2: float your boat, if that doesn't fill you up, there'll

729
00:40:10,280 --> 00:40:12,239
Speaker 2: be plenty more of the real story next week. See then,