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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.

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Speaker 1: Reserve Bank Governor Michelle Bullock warns that inflation isn't falling

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Speaker 1: as fast as hoped. Australia faces a fifteen percent US

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Speaker 1: tariff rate, and one of only four Seratosaurus fossils has

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Speaker 1: been sold at auction for more than thirty million dollars plus.

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Speaker 1: Macquarie Banks board faces an investor backlash over pay rates,

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Speaker 1: and the share price of bapcoor owner of retailers including

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Speaker 1: Autobarn and Burston, tumbles thirty percent on the back of

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Speaker 1: week sales. It is Friday, the twenty fifth of July

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning. Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael, very busy morning.

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Speaker 1: Do you ever think we would hear RBA and tariffs

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Speaker 1: and in the middle of it all dinosaurs Serratosaurus is No,

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Speaker 1: We'll get to it a little bit later on because

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Speaker 1: the main story this morning. Sewan Reserve Bank Governor Michelle

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Speaker 1: Bullock provided a stark warning to us all yesterday to

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Speaker 1: everyone wanting several rate cuts this year, inflation might not

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Speaker 1: fall as fast as anticipated, meaning unfortunately rate cuts are

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Speaker 1: not guaranteed.

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Speaker 2: She also said that economists might have overreached or overreacted

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Speaker 2: to the rise in unemployment last month the four point

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Speaker 2: three percent, pointing out that it's still very low and

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Speaker 2: the labor market remains tight. The Central Bank expects headline

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Speaker 2: inflation to fall to the lower part of the two

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Speaker 2: to three percent target bend next week when we got

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Speaker 2: in when we get inflation data, but Bullock says it

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Speaker 2: will bounce back towards three percent at the end of

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Speaker 2: the year as temporary government electricity rebates expire. Now the

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Speaker 2: Reserve beings more interested in what they know as the

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Speaker 2: underlying inflation rate that strips out all those volatile price movements.

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Speaker 2: It was two point nine percent in the March quarter.

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Speaker 2: That's the first time it's under three percent since twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty one, and Bullock expects it to fall further. However,

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Speaker 2: there's always a button economics, isn't there. But the monthly figures,

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Speaker 2: which are relatively new series, suggests the drop might not

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Speaker 2: be as much as expected. The cost of housing, construction

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Speaker 2: and consumer durable goods think, you know, appliances, fridges, We're

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Speaker 2: a bit higher in May than the bank thought. Reserve

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Speaker 2: Bank still thinks underlying inflation is heading to two and

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Speaker 2: a half percent, but it's just looking for data to

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Speaker 2: support that forecast.

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Speaker 1: Michelle Bullock is a very measured person, very very considered,

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Speaker 1: but saying that economists might have overreacted, that's about as

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Speaker 1: close to a public kind of slap down as you

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Speaker 1: can get.

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Speaker 2: Right. See, I don't know that Michelle Bullock is particularly measured.

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Speaker 2: Glenn Steve Glenn Stevens was super measured. Yes, yes, true,

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Speaker 2: Phil Low, Phil, I don't know that. I mean, I

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Speaker 2: suppose he's measured because he's a Reserve banker, but I

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Speaker 2: don't think privately feels overly measured. I don't think Michelle

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Speaker 2: is either.

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Speaker 1: Okay, well, maybe it's just very very cautious. Perhaps that's

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Speaker 1: that's a better word. Not taking rate cut off the

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Speaker 1: table though here is she's just tempering us supposing enthusiasm

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Speaker 1: about lower underlying inflation. Are we still likely to get

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Speaker 1: a rate cut? Then?

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Speaker 2: Yes, yes, yes, the economy, including the labor market, inflation

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Speaker 2: is traveling more or less in line with the Reserve

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Speaker 2: Bank's forecasts. Michelle Bullock made it clear yesterday the Bank

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Speaker 2: has a dual mandate priced ability and for employment. She

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Speaker 2: wants to get both. She said the downside risks to

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Speaker 2: the global economy have diminished. That's good, though there's still

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Speaker 2: plenty of uncertainty. She wanted to talk about the gradual

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Speaker 2: approach to monetary policy easing is appropriate, highlighting that there's

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Speaker 2: already been two rate cuts. I don't like the wood

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Speaker 2: gradual habit. We just go, you know, go for it,

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Speaker 2: get the gradual part of it. Bullok also said rates

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Speaker 2: didn't go up as much in Australia compared to other economies,

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Speaker 2: so they might not fall as much. Very hawkish all round,

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Speaker 2: but underlying that there probably will still be rate cuts,

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Speaker 2: but maybe just not as many as we had hoped.

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Speaker 1: Okay, all right now. The other big story during the

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Speaker 1: round is tariff's sean. Australia faces a fifteen percent tariff

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Speaker 1: on goods sold into the United States, even after the

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Speaker 1: Albanese government lifted biosecurity restrictions on US beef, paving the

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Speaker 1: way for the full resumption of American exports to Australia.

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Speaker 2: US President Donald Trump yesterday said tariffs would not be

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Speaker 2: below fifteen percent after the August one deadline. He said

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Speaker 2: they'll be between fifteen and fifty percent. Even though Australia

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Speaker 2: has a trade surplus with the US, we're initially hit

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Speaker 2: with ten percent. It is likely that will attract the

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Speaker 2: fifteen percent impost unless something crazy happens in the next

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Speaker 2: seven days and we get a deal. That's very unlikely. Though.

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Speaker 2: Trump's comments came after the Albanese government lifted the biosecurity

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Speaker 2: restrictions on US beef, removing a reason given by the

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Speaker 2: Trump administration for imposing tariffs on Australia to begin with.

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Speaker 2: Having said that, Trade Minister Don Farrell categorically denied that

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Speaker 2: the decision had anything to do with wider trade talks

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Speaker 2: between the US and Australia. Just you know, coincidental. No,

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Speaker 2: no one's buying that. The Opposition isn't buying that, and

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Speaker 2: they're calling for a full inquiry into why it occurred.

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Speaker 1: See, this is why we need to be cynical. Sean,

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Speaker 1: I felt bad about being too cynical lately, but no, no,

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Speaker 1: embrace the cynicism because of that. Right, it's just ridiculous.

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Speaker 1: It was day three yesterday of the new parliament, so

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Speaker 1: day one was ceremony, Day two starting to get into it.

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Speaker 1: Day three, what legislation was introduced well.

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Speaker 2: Minister for Employment and Workplace Relations Amanda Rishworth, introduced a

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Speaker 2: bill to protect penalty rates. She said, if you rely

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Speaker 2: on the modern award safety net and work weekends, public holidays,

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Speaker 2: early mornings of late nights, she's talking to us, Michael,

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Speaker 2: she's talking to us. You deserve to have your wages protected.

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Speaker 2: I don't think we get penalty rates.

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Speaker 1: No, I've never received a penalty rate of you.

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Speaker 2: We'll talk to Danski. The Coalition accused the government of

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Speaker 2: trying to rush through the legislation on penalty rates without

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Speaker 2: proper consultation with more businesses. Otherwise, in question time the

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Speaker 2: Arji Bard you revolved around the US beef biosecurity restrictions,

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Speaker 2: and I just mentioned also potential changes to taxation of

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Speaker 2: superbalances above three million dollars.

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Speaker 1: All right, big start, plenty more to come. We'll be

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Speaker 1: back in a moment with the rest of the day's

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Speaker 1: business news. Sean mcquarie Group's share price fell five percent

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Speaker 1: yesterday after it released a softer June quarter trading update,

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Speaker 1: and longtime chief financial officer Alex Harvey said he is

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Speaker 1: leaving the group. But the real shock was that the

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Speaker 1: group received a first strike at its AGM as shareholders

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Speaker 1: protested its remuneration report.

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Speaker 2: This came after proxy firms CGI, Glass Lewis and Ownership

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Speaker 2: Matters criticized mcquarie for failing to slash executive pay sufficiently

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Speaker 2: after a series of compliance blunders. Now it's not so

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Speaker 2: much that they don't deserve the money. It's just that

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Speaker 2: they deserve the money in good times, but they should

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Speaker 2: actually have it cut in bad times, and they have

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Speaker 2: had compliance blunders. Chief executive Shamara Wickrameni Yaka earned twenty

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Speaker 2: four million dollars for the year ending thirty one March.

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Speaker 2: It was down from twenty five million dollars but one percent.

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Speaker 2: On twenty five it's down four percent. So what the

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Speaker 2: proxy firms are saying is that's not enough enough. Shareholders

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Speaker 2: listened to that argument and at least twenty five are

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Speaker 2: voted against the remuneration report. Hence a first strike. If

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Speaker 2: there's a second strike next year, then the board must

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Speaker 2: be spilled. Otherwise. The CFO mister Harvey, Alex Harvey, he's

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Speaker 2: been in that role for many many years. He's been

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Speaker 2: there well sorry, he's been in a mcquarif twenty eight years,

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Speaker 2: in that role for about seven. I think he's moving

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Speaker 2: on very highly regarded. Also has said that the first

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Speaker 2: quarter for mcquarie in terms of incomes weaker in another

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Speaker 2: in a number of areas, including commodities and global markets.

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Speaker 1: I've got a few questions for you about all of this,

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Speaker 1: about Macquarie Bank, about remuneration, strikes and all of that,

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Speaker 1: but I'm going to save it for our episode of Ask,

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed, which we're going to release at midday,

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Speaker 1: so we can really just dive into that topic a bit.

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Speaker 1: Automotive parts group Bapcore, which owns the Autobarn, auto Pro

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Speaker 1: and Burston Brands, says trading has been weaker than expected

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Speaker 1: in May and June and announced fifty million dollars in

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Speaker 1: post tax right downs and the exit of three directors.

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Speaker 1: There's a bit in that.

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Speaker 2: There is a bit in that, and that's why the

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Speaker 2: share price fell thirty percent on the news, lowest level

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Speaker 2: in a decade, finished twenty eight percent low, but not

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Speaker 2: often to get a stock losing thirty percent in one day.

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Speaker 2: Babcore said weaker trading and write downs of old inventry

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Speaker 2: would push net profit to around that thirty two thirty

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Speaker 2: seve three million dollars for the last financial year. Chief

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Speaker 2: executive Angus Mackay, who joined the company in August last year,

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Speaker 2: said heavy restructuring had taken place. In fact, forty five

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Speaker 2: sites have been closed or shifted. Three directors also tended

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Speaker 2: their resignations yesterday.

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Speaker 1: Ford Esku's share price rose yesterday after it shipped a

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Speaker 1: record volume of iron ore in the year to June

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Speaker 1: and forecast stronger growth in the next twelve months. Although

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Speaker 1: there are more problems for the miners green energy ambitions.

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Speaker 2: Ja Michael ford SKUs share price is up close to

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Speaker 2: thirty percent over the past month. We talked about the

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Speaker 2: switch from banks to minors. Fordesku has done better than

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Speaker 2: BHP and Rear switched to Fortescue. Now. Most of that

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Speaker 2: is on the back of renewed conference around iron ore.

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Speaker 2: The minor expects iron or export volumes to rise three

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Speaker 2: percent over the next year. When you have higher volumes,

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Speaker 2: you get reduced unit costs, so it's a virtuous circle there.

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Speaker 2: But the group flagged a two hundred and twenty seven

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Speaker 2: million dollar impairment on two failed energy projects. Ford Sku

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Speaker 2: has gone big into renewables, but it's really struggling to

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Speaker 2: make them work, So the Arizona Hydrogen and Gladston electoralizer

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Speaker 2: projects won't go ahead. Now the assets, in Fortescu's words,

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Speaker 2: will be repurposed, which presumably means they're giving up on that.

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Speaker 1: Okay, and just quickly more generally local markets, how do

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Speaker 1: they perform?

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Speaker 2: Yesterday, SMPA six two hundred closed down a bit to

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Speaker 2: eighty seven hundred and nine points goals. Okay, zero point

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Speaker 2: three percent. There you go.

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Speaker 1: A bit that is now just we're going to have

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Speaker 1: to come up with a scale. A bit is anything

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Speaker 1: less than zero point five percent, and a smidgeon is

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Speaker 1: like zero point one percent.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah. Basically, gold stocks fell on lower prices.

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Speaker 2: The Industrials index was the worst performer of the sub indices.

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Speaker 2: Banks and minors were mixed, Retailers generally down. Healthcare stocks

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Speaker 2: once again, they're doing really well. They were hire led

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Speaker 2: by CSL. It's up fifteen percent over the past four

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Speaker 2: weeks or so. Clarity, Pharmaceutical, New and Pharmaceutical, and Mesoblast

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Speaker 2: all did well.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Turn into international news now, and the EU, U

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Speaker 1: and US are closing in on a trade deal that

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Speaker 1: would impose fifteen percent tariffs on European imports, similar to

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Speaker 1: the agreement that Donald Trump struck with.

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Speaker 2: Japan this week, Brussels could agree to the so called

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Speaker 2: reciprocal levies to avoid the US President's threat to raise

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Speaker 2: them to thirty percent from August one. According to the

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Speaker 2: Financial Times, under the deal, both sides would waive tariffs

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Speaker 2: on some products, including aircraft, spirits and medical devices. Love

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Speaker 2: the fact that spirits are in there. The European Commission,

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Speaker 2: which runs a U trade policy, briefed envoys from member

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Speaker 2: states overnight following talks with the US. Counterparts.

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Speaker 1: Wall Street's trading at another record high after earnings from

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Speaker 1: a couple of the big tech stocks.

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Speaker 2: Sean That's right, good news and bad news. Alphabet, owner

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Speaker 2: of Google, beat expectations and said it was lifting its

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty five couple expenditure budget by about ten billion

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Speaker 2: US dollars lazy fifteen bill. That's amid surging demand for

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Speaker 2: cloud products and services that triggered a jump in its

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Speaker 2: share price. Hiver At Tesla not so good. The EV

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Speaker 2: maker confirmed sales and revenue tumbled last quarter that sent

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Speaker 2: its share price lower. The manufacturer also said it has

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Speaker 2: begun initial production of a cheaper EV model, but Boss

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Speaker 2: Elon Musk warned of a potential rough stretch ahead. Part

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Speaker 2: of that is because Donald Trump's one big beautiful bill

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Speaker 2: actually Withdrewe subsidies for Tesla. So the hip pocket Elon

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Speaker 2: Musk's hip pocket is hurting from that fullat with Donald Trump.

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Speaker 1: It certainly is okay, let's finish strong, let's talk dinosaurs.

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Speaker 1: Sean not something I've ever been able to say on

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Speaker 1: this podcast before, but a Seratosaurus fossil that is one

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Speaker 1: of only four known to exist has sold four thirty

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Speaker 1: point five million US dollars at auction. Can you imagine

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Speaker 1: being someone bidding for a dinosaur?

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Speaker 2: Well, I mean the interesting thing it was basically go

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Speaker 2: for like five million, but there were six bidders and

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Speaker 2: it was a six minute battle at Southerbees. According to

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Speaker 2: souther Bees, it's one of the finest and most complete

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Speaker 2: examples of its kind ever found. This is all in

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Speaker 2: a report on CNN. It's the only juvenile serah. I

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Speaker 2: can't say the word Michael Serratosaurus, thank you. It's the

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Speaker 2: only juvenile Seratosaurus fossil of the four complete models. It was,

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Speaker 2: as I said, expected to fetch five million, ended up

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Speaker 2: at more than thirty million dollars. The Seratosaurus was a

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Speaker 2: meat eating predator with a nasal horn, long teeth, and

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Speaker 2: bony armor that rang down its back and tail. Not

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Speaker 2: one point nine meters tall, three point twenty five meters long,

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Speaker 2: one hundred and thirty nine bone elements. That's a lot,

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Speaker 2: but what I think is incredible fifty seven of them

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Speaker 2: are actually in the skull. It was found in nineteen

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Speaker 2: ninety six at the appropriately named Bone Cabin Quarry in Wyoming,

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Speaker 2: dates from the late Jurassic period, around one hundred and

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Speaker 2: fifty million years ago.

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Speaker 1: Well, there we go, Seratosaurus fossils and another first for

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed, a reference to a nasal horn that

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Speaker 1: took me by surprise. Immediately after the show stick Around,

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Speaker 1: you are speaking Sean with Brad Pulford from HP.

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Speaker 2: Yes, so we talked to him about We start talking

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Speaker 2: about productivity and how Australia needs to improve its productivity output.

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Speaker 2: But then we expand into a bunch of other areas

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Speaker 2: and HP has done a lot of work around the

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Speaker 2: workforce and so to have great insight into it. It's

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Speaker 2: really well worth listen.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's coming up next in the Fear and Greed

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Speaker 1: playlist on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com

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Speaker 1: dot au which is of course Sean where you sign

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Speaker 1: up for the free Fear and Greed daily newsletter. And

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Speaker 1: I'll put a link in today's show notes.

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Speaker 2: So that one.

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Speaker 1: Thank you very much.

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Speaker 2: Thanks Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Friday, the twenty fifth of July twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us

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Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael

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Speaker 1: Thompson and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.