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Speaker 1: Today on Beear and Greed, the governments of the world's

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Speaker 1: two biggest economies, the USA and China, provide their outlooks

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Speaker 1: for twenty twenty five, as global trade wars kickoff, the

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Speaker 1: Aussie economy grows at its fastest pace in two years,

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Speaker 1: and residents of northern New South Wales and southern Queensland

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Speaker 1: get ready for the arrival of Cyclone Alfred. Plus sales

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Speaker 1: of a plug in BYD hybrid vehicle saw and the

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Speaker 1: value of vineyards around the world tumble. Welcome to Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed. Daily business news for people who make their

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Speaker 1: own decisions. It is Thursday, the sixth of March twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Morning, Michael, great adjectives this morning. We've got things soaring,

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Speaker 2: We've got value of vineyards tumbling, kicking off, all sorts

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Speaker 2: of things.

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Speaker 1: It's a very descriptive show, descriptive show. You're right, the

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Speaker 1: main story this morning, Sean. Six weeks into the job,

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Speaker 1: we're speaking of someone who's very descriptive.

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Speaker 2: Here.

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Speaker 1: US President Donald Trump has addressed a joint Congress sitting,

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Speaker 1: trumpeting his administration's trumpeting Trump trumpeting Yes, yes, I like it,

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Speaker 1: trumpeting his administration's achievements. It was very much a self

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Speaker 1: congratulatory speech. Perhaps most notable though, from more consiliatory tone

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Speaker 1: towards Ukraine, which is very significant.

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Speaker 2: That came after Ukrainian President Vodimir Zelensky tweeted that he

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Speaker 2: regretted his angry exchange with the President in the White

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Speaker 2: House late last week and he's hoping to do a deal.

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump, in his speech took credit for swift and

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Speaker 2: unrelenting action in turning around the nation's economy, and praised

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Speaker 2: Elon Musk's work as the head of DOGE. Trump also

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Speaker 2: reiterated plans to impose reciprocal tariffs from April II, though

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Speaker 2: it's unclear what that actually means. For example, does it

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Speaker 2: include Australia's GST The president during his speech, yes, they

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Speaker 2: listed a bunch of countries affected, but didn't mention Australia.

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Speaker 2: So he talked about the European Union, China, Brazil, India, Mexico, Canada.

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Speaker 2: Australia wasn't mentioned, but who knows. Trump set a record

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Speaker 2: for the longest address to Congress one hour and forty minutes.

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Speaker 2: I think the previous record was one hour twenty eight minutes,

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Speaker 2: which I think was Bill Clinton. Wow, so Trump set

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Speaker 2: a record there. He covered a range of topics. It's

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Speaker 2: fair to say you actually listened to it more than

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Speaker 2: I like, from mars to illegal immigration, reducing rates of autism,

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Speaker 2: all sorts of things. He received a cheer from Republican

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Speaker 2: politicians when he said, quote America is woke, no more

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Speaker 2: end quote. It was enthusiasticly received by his supporters. To

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Speaker 2: take the whole speech was enthusiastically received by his supporters, well, Democrats,

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Speaker 2: and attendance well, they basically didn't clap or engaged in

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Speaker 2: forms of protest, including holding up paddles saying lies love.

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Speaker 2: His conclusion, he said he was saved by God to

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Speaker 2: return America get greatness.

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Speaker 1: It did look like things were going to get derailed

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Speaker 1: at about the two minute mark when there was a

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Speaker 1: protest by one congressman, a Democrat from Texas. Our green

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Speaker 1: is seventy seven, and he was standing up waving his

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Speaker 1: walking stick and pointing it at the president, saying you

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Speaker 1: have no mandate, and he was getting really stuck in,

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Speaker 1: and in the end he was escorted out, and that

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Speaker 1: really kind of looked like it was going to derail

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Speaker 1: things for a bit, and no, President of Trump kind

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Speaker 1: of sat down, waited, then spoke for another hour and

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Speaker 1: thirty five minutes after that point, now showing the other superpower.

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Speaker 1: China is also holding a very important get together the

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Speaker 1: National People's Congress, which is the highest parliament in the country,

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Speaker 1: and yesterday it set the agenda for the next twelve months.

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Speaker 2: Most importantly, Beijing said a growth target of five percent.

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Speaker 2: It always seems to hit its target China, even if

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Speaker 2: this year is going to be particularly challenging. The Chinese

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Speaker 2: government also announced a bunch of new stimulatory measures, though

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Speaker 2: analysts called them underwhelming. Since Donald Trump took office in January,

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Speaker 2: his administration has so far added an extra twenty percentage

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Speaker 2: points on existing imports taris tariff's on those imports for

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Speaker 2: Chinese goods, the latest one kicking in on Tuesday. In

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Speaker 2: Premier League, Kang said that those sort of changes internationally

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Speaker 2: hadn't been seen for a century. In some ways, China's

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Speaker 2: more important to us in the US because it's such

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Speaker 2: a big trading partner. Beijing is pushing to boost consumption.

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Speaker 2: That doesn't necessarily help Australia directly because we sell iron

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Speaker 2: ore and we sell commodities. They're not consumer goods obviously,

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Speaker 2: they're more about steelmaking and infrastructure. Whilst that will continue,

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Speaker 2: the focus is definitely on the household sector in China,

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Speaker 2: so nowhere near as much prominence I suppose in the

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Speaker 2: media what happened yesterday in China, but probably more important

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Speaker 2: for us well.

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Speaker 1: It may not be a five percent growth rate Sean,

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Speaker 1: but the Australian economy grew at it's fastest paced since

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Speaker 1: the end of the pandemic last quarter on the back

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Speaker 1: of government spending. Though the zero point six percentage point

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Speaker 1: increase did point economists somewhat.

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Speaker 2: Ah, just a touch, I mean a bit of a

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Speaker 2: grumby Budge the economist. I mean it kind of came

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Speaker 2: in on expectations, so it's probably unfair to say that

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Speaker 2: we're a bit disappointed. But you know, when you say

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Speaker 2: zero point six, you're actually one zero point seven.

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Speaker 1: Yes, African, that's a good point.

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Speaker 2: For the three months at the end of December, growth

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Speaker 2: in household and government spending in exports helped offsetting declines

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Speaker 2: in investment and in residential home building. It's the fastest

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Speaker 2: pace that zero point six percent since the end of

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty two lifted the annual pace to one point

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Speaker 2: three percent. Now, that's well below the long term average,

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Speaker 2: which is two point seven percent, but it's better than

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Speaker 2: it's been for about two years now, so we'll take it.

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Speaker 2: I think that's the bottom line there. GDP per person,

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Speaker 2: which actually measures living standards, rose for the first time

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Speaker 2: in seven quarters. Decent stead of numbers. Really accept that

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Speaker 2: government spending continues to prop up the economy, that's a

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Speaker 2: bit of a problem. The figure suggests that the Reserve

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Speaker 2: Bank could cut interest rates, but may not need to

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Speaker 2: income months because the economy is already picking up. The

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Speaker 2: reason the Reserve bet would cut rates is to give

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Speaker 2: the economy a bit of a burst. Not sure that's

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Speaker 2: exactly what the Prime Minister, Anthony Alberanezi wants to hear

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Speaker 2: ahead of an election.

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Speaker 1: No, I don't think so. Talking about this topic, and

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Speaker 1: someone who always has an interesting take on this is

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Speaker 1: ewy's chief economist, Scharrelle Murphy speaking to her after the show.

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Speaker 2: Sure, I am churel great economist talks us through what

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Speaker 2: GDP means and where we sit and what the art

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Speaker 2: looks like.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, if you want a good understanding a good overview

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Speaker 1: of this whole subject. Listen to this conversation coming up

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Speaker 1: a little bit later on Shaw and we do a

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Speaker 1: fair bit still to get through. We're talking about the

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Speaker 1: latest on Cyclone Alfred, the vineyard values, We're talking about

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Speaker 1: wine Sewan, the extraordinary success of a new hybrid plug

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Speaker 1: in vehicle. I love talking about EV's It's just a

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Speaker 1: fascinating topic. We'll be back in a moment with the

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Speaker 1: rest of the day's business news Sean. Residents of south

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Speaker 1: these Queensland and northeast New South Wales are preparing for

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Speaker 1: Cyclone Alfred, which is due to make landfall tonight as

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Speaker 1: a Category two system.

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Speaker 2: Schools are closed in the area, Plains are being diverted,

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Speaker 2: public transport is on whole, People have been evacuated and

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Speaker 2: tens of thousands of homes risk being inundated with water.

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Speaker 2: Alfred is supposed to make landfall at high tide, exacerbating

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Speaker 2: the potential for flooding in the region. Destructive wind gusts

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Speaker 2: of about one hundred and thirty kilometers are expected to

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Speaker 2: hit heavily populated regions between Gimpi in Queensland and Yamba

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Speaker 2: in New South Wales. Australian Defense Forces on standby. Hundreds

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Speaker 2: of thousands of emergency sandbags have been rushed to at

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Speaker 2: risk regions. The latest update from the Bureau of Meteorology

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Speaker 2: about eight hundred mills of rain in some areas with

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Speaker 2: those winds up to one hundred and thirty kilometers. We

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Speaker 2: wish everyone living through that all the best. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, now I mentioned this story earlier Sean. After just

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Speaker 1: two months on the market, id plug in hybrid ut

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Speaker 1: the Shark six. It's a great name. It has become

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Speaker 1: the sixth best selling vehicle in Australia.

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Speaker 2: The other notable fact from the Federal Chamber of Automotive

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Speaker 2: Industries February figures is that Tesla sales tumbled down more

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Speaker 2: than seventy percent over the past year. Now, part of

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Speaker 2: that is resale values of Tesla's have fallen big time,

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Speaker 2: but analysts also think it could be a bit of

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Speaker 2: a backlash from Elon Musk's association with Donald Trump. In fact,

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Speaker 2: pure evs now are just six percent of sales really

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Speaker 2: come off. The boil hybrids make up about sixteen percent

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Speaker 2: of sales. The top selling vehicle is the Toyota Rav four.

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Speaker 2: Most of those I mean, there was more than four

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Speaker 2: thousand sold, and I think twenty seven were internal combustion,

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Speaker 2: so most of those are hybrids. Number two is of

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Speaker 2: Ford Ranger Ute, then the Toyota Highlus. But this Shark six,

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Speaker 2: the BYD Shark six six best selling vehicle. It actually

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Speaker 2: outsold the perennial tradey favorite, the Isuzu Dmax last month.

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Speaker 1: Not bad, that's incredible.

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Speaker 2: It is absolutely incredible, And once you get the trades

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Speaker 2: people buying hybrids, that gives it a real boost.

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Speaker 1: I reckon giving it a name like the Shark six

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Speaker 1: helps with the trade true, I would buy it.

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Speaker 2: Overall, just under ninety five thousand vehicles were sold last month.

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Speaker 2: That's actually down nearly ten percent from a year earlier.

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Speaker 2: The cost of living crisis is hitting that sector.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, the local share market SEAN fell zero point seven

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Speaker 1: percent yesterday after a selloff on Wall Street. Fears of

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Speaker 1: a trade war is hitting markets. It's hitting it hard, right, Yeah.

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Speaker 2: So everything we were talking about the top of the show,

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Speaker 2: markets are feeling it. The SMPA six two hundred finished

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Speaker 2: yesterday at eight one hundred and forty one points. It's

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Speaker 2: lost all its gains from earlier in the year, it's

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Speaker 2: back to where it was late December. This is all

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Speaker 2: on the back of the idea that tariff's could be

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Speaker 2: instituted by the US on Canada and China, and the

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Speaker 2: faith that Kenda and China said they're going to implement

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Speaker 2: the their own tariffs. The slight caveat at the moment

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Speaker 2: is whether or not they go ahead. So Trump's Commerce

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Speaker 2: Secretary Howard Lutnik, over the last twenty four hours suggested

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Speaker 2: there could be middle ground between the USA and Canada

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Speaker 2: and Mexico, so we have to wait and see what happens.

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Speaker 2: In any case, there's definitely a trade war underway that

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Speaker 2: could hit earnings of local companies, hence the selloff. Big

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Speaker 2: banks were losers on the day, while miners are benefited

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Speaker 2: from a bunch of new economic stimulus measures out of Beijing.

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Speaker 2: Away from equities, the Aussie dollars trading around sixty two

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Speaker 2: and a half usent s goals higher at twenty nine

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Speaker 2: to thirteen an ounce. Iron are continues to trade under

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Speaker 2: one hundred US dollars a ton.

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Speaker 1: Jean Rio Tinto will allow its Australian investors to vote

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Speaker 1: on whether it should consider dumping its London listing, even

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Speaker 1: though the board of the mining giant is against any

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Speaker 1: such move.

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Speaker 2: So rarez listed both in Australia and the United Kingdom.

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Speaker 2: It's faced pressure from activist shareholders to follow its major

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Speaker 2: rival BHP and only trade on the AIX. BHP left

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Speaker 2: the London socket change back in twenty twenty two. The

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Speaker 2: current implied valuation discount between the shares of Rio PLC

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Speaker 2: and the Australian companies around eighteen percent. So basically what

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Speaker 2: that says is that ASX listed shares are training eighteen

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Speaker 2: percent higher than the UK listed shares. That difference in

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Speaker 2: large part is due to tax treatment of dividends, and

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Speaker 2: we have frankent credits here. They don't have that in

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Speaker 2: the UK, so that's kind of the reason there. The

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Speaker 2: company will allow of it. It's AGM. Even though it

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Speaker 2: publicly says the current dual listing continues to be effective

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Speaker 2: and provide benefits to investors, it says that it would

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Speaker 2: be value destructive to just come back to Australia and

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Speaker 2: result in tax costs in the area of billions of dollars.

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Speaker 2: It probably also likes access to European investors. I'd imagine we've.

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Speaker 1: Talked a lot about Mineral Resources. Sean has had a

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Speaker 1: fairly extensive list of problems in recent months. The latest

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Speaker 1: challenge for the iron ore and lithium minor is a

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Speaker 1: downgrade from ratings agency Fitch.

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Speaker 2: Yes ratings down grade basically means it's more expensive for

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Speaker 2: the company to raise money, and it already owes billions

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Speaker 2: of dollars, so that is bad news. It now has

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Speaker 2: a rating of double B minus, which in Fitch's words,

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Speaker 2: suggests an elevated vulnerability to default risk, particularly in the

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Speaker 2: event of adverse changes in business or economic conditions over time.

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Speaker 2: The way I was taught about a double B minus

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Speaker 2: junk bond, Really, that's what a junk bond is. Now

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Speaker 2: nowadays we call it non investment grade, but junk bond

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Speaker 2: Religan Wall Street. It just cuts through. Yeah, yep, yep.

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Speaker 2: Mineral Resources, a company in all sorts earning season, came

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Speaker 2: out with an interim loss of eight hundred and seven

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Speaker 2: million dollars on all production targets were cut so to

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Speaker 2: its dividend. It's got a regulatory probe going on into

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Speaker 2: the behavior of founder and CEO Chris Ellison. Down three

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Speaker 2: percent yesterday, nearly forty percent over the past year.

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Speaker 1: Non investment grade sounds like it's been named by a committee,

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Speaker 1: doesn't it, as opposed to the marketing team with younk bond.

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Speaker 2: So I have actually worked inside fund managers, and the

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Speaker 2: thing about junk bonds or non investment grade bonds is

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Speaker 2: the yields are so much higher. So if you want

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Speaker 2: to diverse flight your portfilo, it's not a bad thing

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Speaker 2: to hold junk bonds. And some people deliberately sorry, non

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Speaker 2: investment grade bonds. So some funds deliberately hold them and

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Speaker 2: they lose some, but you know, they win some and

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Speaker 2: in the end they end up better off. Others have

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Speaker 2: a few of them as part of a diverse flight portfoilio.

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Speaker 2: So I think we should go back to calling them

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Speaker 2: junk bonds.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, indeed, And of course we're not an investing podcast,

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Speaker 1: seeing professional advice before making investment decisions and see whether

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Speaker 1: your financial advisor calls them junk bonds or And.

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Speaker 2: We're not the macroa dictionary, are they? So they are?

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Speaker 1: No, we're not owing quite a limited vocabulary here sean

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Speaker 1: a quick one on domain.

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Speaker 2: Yes.

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Speaker 1: Nine Entertainment's second largest shareholder, Pendle, is urging nine to

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Speaker 1: pursue a deal with US real estate giant Costar to

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Speaker 1: sell the property platform domain.

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Speaker 2: So co starts off at two point seven billion domain

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Speaker 2: nine sixty percent of domain. Hence Coastar needs nine to agree.

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Speaker 2: Pendle owns a big chunk of nine about eight percent.

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Speaker 2: It wants the media group to do a deal. According

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Speaker 2: to the fin review, the challenge for nine what happens

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Speaker 2: if they sell domain? They end up with STAN the

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Speaker 2: nine TV network, a bunch of publishing assets, radio stations,

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Speaker 2: but a much much smaller business domains share price at

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Speaker 2: the moment is above four dollars thirty. Now the office

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Speaker 2: four dollars twenty. So investors clearly think there's another bid

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Speaker 2: coming at a higher price and a deal will be done.

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Speaker 2: And now the big shareholder in nine is pushing bit

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Speaker 2: to sell domain.

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Speaker 1: Turning to international news, now, vineyard values around the globe

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Speaker 1: Sean have tumbled by as much as a third in

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Speaker 1: the past year. That's a big drop, right as the

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Speaker 1: oversupply of wine weighs down on the industry amid sinking

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Speaker 1: global consumption.

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Speaker 2: I think there's a lot of millennials and others have

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Speaker 2: to answer.

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Speaker 1: Forth well that no one's everyone's getting healthier. No one's

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Speaker 1: getting as much wine.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we gen x's we don't like that sort of behavior.

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Speaker 1: You just have to increase your own consumption to offset

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Speaker 1: now ah.

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Speaker 2: And as late as well. To report Property Group Knight,

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Speaker 2: Frank says few of the world's key vineyard regions remain

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Speaker 2: unscathed by dropping demand for wine. Addink that consumption has

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Speaker 2: full and twelve percent globally from its peak in two

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Speaker 2: thousand and seven. New Zealand's vineyard values have suffered. Most

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Speaker 2: prices in the country's Marlborough region have fallen thirty three percent.

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Speaker 2: That's just in one year. Incredible valleys in California's Napa

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Speaker 2: Valley region down fifteen percent. Vineyard prices in Austrades Barossa

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Speaker 2: and France's coach deir Own both down ten percent, according

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Speaker 2: to report. In the Ft, wine producers battling shifting taste,

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Speaker 2: younger generations are opting for different beverages or shame on

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Speaker 2: them shunning alcohol altogether. Jaron France, the youngest generation jen

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Speaker 2: Z consume about half as much wine per capita as

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Speaker 2: all the millennials in GeneXus. Outrageous.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you also have a lot of people that

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Speaker 1: they are just generally more health conscious, right.

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Speaker 2: Actually it's just been a shame.

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Speaker 1: But then again we've just finished February.

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Speaker 2: That was feb Free Feed Fast.

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Speaker 1: Oh you did feb.

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Speaker 2: Fast Fast and we got there and actually we won't

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Speaker 2: talk about it, dad, but Fear and Greed've got a

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Speaker 2: bit of health kick coming on over the next couple

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Speaker 2: of months which we're raising money for a great charity for.

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Speaker 1: Yes, sorry that it was about not about the charity,

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Speaker 1: that was about the health help. Yeah, sorry, just to

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Speaker 1: clarify that. We'll come to that anyway, yeap soon. Up

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Speaker 1: next is the Fear and Greed Daily Interview. EY Chief

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Speaker 1: economist Charelle Murphy is our guest stick around for that one.

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Speaker 1: It is coming up in the Fear and Greed playlist

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Speaker 1: or at Fear and Greed dot com today. You thank

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Speaker 1: you very much, Sean, Thank you.

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Speaker 2: Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Thursday, the sixth of March twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you following the podcast and please join us

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Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, ex TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson.

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Speaker 1: That was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.