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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed. Major changes in the Australian

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Speaker 1: retailing landscape as Meyer buys several well known brands and

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Speaker 1: Rivers announces it will close. The on time performance of

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Speaker 1: local airlines improves but remains below pre COVID levels, and

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Speaker 1: Australian's wellbeing hits a low plus. Donald Trump gives his

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Speaker 1: first TV interview since his inauguration, doubling down on immigration,

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Speaker 1: and the Albaneze government puts two billion dollars into its

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Speaker 1: Green Bank. Welcome to Fear and Greed. Daily business news

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Speaker 1: for people who make their own decisions. It is Friday,

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Speaker 1: the twenty fourth of January twenty twenty five. I'm Michael

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Speaker 1: Thompson and good morning Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Morning. Particularly excited this morning, Michael, do you know why

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Speaker 2: I genuinely died lead story that's not Donald Trump? Oh? Yeah,

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Speaker 2: first time all week.

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Speaker 1: That's quite extraordinary that you've there's something going on in

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Speaker 1: the world that isn't Donald Trump right now.

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Speaker 2: You had to look under a few rocks.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, but you found a good story. It is. It's

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Speaker 1: about the shakeup that is underway in the local retailing sector,

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Speaker 1: with shareholders overwhelmingly backing the takeover of Premier's apparel brands

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Speaker 1: and the closure as well of a well known fashion brand.

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Speaker 2: Yes, so let's talk about Maya first. My taking over

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Speaker 2: Premier's apparel brands. It means that billionaire Solomon lou perhaps

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Speaker 2: Australia's best known retailer, is certainly one of the best

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Speaker 2: retailers this country's produced. He will get a seat on

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Speaker 2: the Maya board. That's because he'll hold twenty seven percent

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Speaker 2: of the new company. The one hundred and twenty four

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Speaker 2: year old department store has just added just Jeans, Dottie, Portman's,

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Speaker 2: Jjy's and Jackie e Till to its stable. New company

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Speaker 2: will have seven hundred and eighty three large format stores

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Speaker 2: and specialty stores, seventeen thousand staff, four billion dollars in earnings,

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Speaker 2: no four billion dollars in revenue sales and two hundred

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Speaker 2: and fifty million dollars in earnings. The share prices of

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Speaker 2: both companies Meyer and Premier have fallen in recent weeks,

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Speaker 2: and that's on the back of port pre Christmas sales. Yesterday,

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Speaker 2: Maya was up more than five percent, Premiere was down slightly,

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Speaker 2: so it's easy to see who investors think the deal

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Speaker 2: is best for In any case, we have as of well,

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Speaker 2: I don't know that the paperwork's gone through yet, Michael,

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Speaker 2: but you know, more or less as of today, a

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Speaker 2: new major retailing bahemoth.

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Speaker 1: Oh wow, really kind of laying it on thick there,

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Speaker 1: But that is big. That is actually big, seven hundred

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Speaker 1: and eighty three stores. And obviously the large format stores

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Speaker 1: are in the minority within that. The majority of those

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Speaker 1: are kind of specialty stores because the number of just

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Speaker 1: Jenes and Portman's and JJ's and things that you would

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Speaker 1: find in shopping centers out weigh the kind of the

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Speaker 1: individual Meyer stores. But still, that is it's a big

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Speaker 1: retail footprint.

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Speaker 2: Seventeen thousand staff. That's a lot of people with a job.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it certainly is. That's a good news story. Not

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Speaker 1: so good, Sean. The second part of this, all one

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Speaker 1: hundred and thirty six Rivers stores across the country were

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Speaker 1: closed in mid April after the receivers for the parent company,

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Speaker 1: Mosaic Brands, couldn't find a buyer for the retailer.

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Speaker 2: Yes, that means six hundred and fifty jobs will go.

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Speaker 2: Rivers actually has a deep history in Australia, not so

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Speaker 2: much in retailing but in manufacturing. It actually started selling

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Speaker 2: goods back in nineteen seventy nine to stores such as

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Speaker 2: Grace Brothers and David Jones, but its roots actually go

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Speaker 2: back to eighteen sixty three, when it started making shoes

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Speaker 2: and wholesaling those shoes. The first River's retail store opened

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Speaker 2: in nineteen eighty three in Sydney that was selling footwear

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Speaker 2: back then. However, Rivers will be no more.

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Speaker 1: It is the.

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Speaker 2: Seventh mosaic brand to go under. We've lost Rockman's Autograph, Crossroads,

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Speaker 2: w Lane, b Me, and now Rivers. They're still trying

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Speaker 2: to find a buyer for the two remaining retailers that

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Speaker 2: look to have a future, Miller's and Non e B.

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Speaker 2: The I mean, I don't like to be too negative

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Speaker 2: about or too kind of dancing on the grave here.

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Speaker 2: One thing about the Rivers. They did say yes, so

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Speaker 2: there's gonna be massive sales and River stores ahead of

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Speaker 2: the closure in April. So if you are they said it,

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Speaker 2: not me. So if you are a fan of Rivers close,

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Speaker 2: now's the time to buy it.

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Speaker 1: That is a That is a bit groom, isn't it.

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Speaker 1: The thing is about Rivers they've they've always been at

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Speaker 1: a very low price point anyway.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and often you see them in country to So

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Speaker 2: I grew up in Orange and New South Wales. As

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Speaker 2: you know, Rivers is a big store in that town,

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Speaker 2: and that town had a Maya department store which closed

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Speaker 2: a few years ago, and so stores like Rivers really

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Speaker 2: make a big difference. So some of those country towns

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Speaker 2: will really feel this. Moaic Brands overaw It collapsed last year,

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Speaker 2: owing two hundred and forty nine million dollars wow.

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Speaker 1: Now moving away from retail sean to politics, the Albanese

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Speaker 1: government has put an extra two billion dollars into its

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Speaker 1: Green Bank to boost momentum and clean energy investment. Notwithstanding

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Speaker 1: the shift away from renewables in the US, it'd be

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Speaker 1: hard to kind of commit this kind of money when

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Speaker 1: you look to the world leader it's pulling back. It's like, okay,

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Speaker 1: all right. It feels hard, as though anything you do

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Speaker 1: is just a drop in the ocean.

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Speaker 2: Yes, although I think a bit easy in the last

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Speaker 2: couple of days has hinted at the opportunity because the

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Speaker 2: US is pulling out of many of the renewable energy

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Speaker 2: projects and the Inflation Reduction Act. They say about seven

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Speaker 2: or eight hundred billion dollars worth of spending in that

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Speaker 2: will be pulled back, and so there is opportunities for

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Speaker 2: countries like Australia. The extra funding announced yes today is

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Speaker 2: the first for the Clean Energy Finance Corporation's General Purpose

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Speaker 2: Fund since the organization was set up in twenty twelve

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Speaker 2: with ten billion dollars from the then Labor Government. The

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Speaker 2: Clean Energy Finance Corporation's total investment capacity now so all

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Speaker 2: the money they're put in, all the investment returns all

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Speaker 2: over the years, is about thirty billion dollars a bit

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Speaker 2: over thirty billion dollars. There's also specific investment funds overseen

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Speaker 2: by the organization, so the nine eight and a half

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Speaker 2: billion dollar rewiring the Nation Fund for Electricity transmissions, that's

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Speaker 2: all the polls and whys that the government's putting up,

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Speaker 2: So this organization is overseeing that one. Prime Minist Anthony

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Speaker 2: Albinez He said the extra money would unlock about six

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Speaker 2: billion dollars of private investment in energy transition projects.

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Speaker 1: All right, a big non Trump start to the show,

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Speaker 1: but fear not, there's plenty of Donald coming there certainly is.

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Speaker 1: We've got a lot still to discuss, a lot in

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Speaker 1: other spaces as well, we're talking about kind of why

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Speaker 1: that our government, the federal government is paying another fifty

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Speaker 1: million dollars to Regional Express, the airline. We're talking about

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Speaker 1: Australia's kind of national well being. Why that set a

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Speaker 1: record though. We'll be back in a moment with the

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Speaker 1: rest of the day's business news.

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Speaker 2: Shaw On.

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Speaker 1: The federal government will pay Regional Express another fifty million

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Speaker 1: dollars to keep operating in rural Australia, taking the total

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Speaker 1: amount of taxpayer funding since it's collapsed to one hundred

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Speaker 1: and thirty million dollars.

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Speaker 2: So the administrators of REX, which is Ey said that

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Speaker 2: the company would be wound up if not for those

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Speaker 2: cash injections. The administrators are very pessimistic about finding a

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Speaker 2: buyer for the airline. The fifty million dollars announced yesterday

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Speaker 2: will go to pag Asia Pacific. Sorry, I'll say that again.

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Speaker 2: The fifty million dollars anounced yesterday will go to pag

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Speaker 2: Asia Capital. It's pag pag Asia Capital, the private equity group.

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Speaker 2: It is the biggest financial backup of REX. They'll receive

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Speaker 2: that fifty million dollar payment. That means that Canberra becomes

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Speaker 2: the biggest creditor to REX. The benefit there is it

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Speaker 2: gives the government more say over where the airline will

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Speaker 2: fly and whether or not it should fly. The airline

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Speaker 2: collapsed in July last year after attempting to expand into

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Speaker 2: ultra competitive capital city routes think Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne. Those

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Speaker 2: services have ended and the companies continued to fly its

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Speaker 2: regional routes while run by EY.

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Speaker 1: The government really doesn't have a choice here, does it.

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Speaker 1: It has to keep on doing this because REX plays

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Speaker 1: such a vital role in rural and regional Australia totally.

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Speaker 2: And if there's an election coming up in May and

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Speaker 2: the government did not put money into it, they were

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Speaker 2: to have no chance in a regional seat, full stop.

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Speaker 1: Goodness me, you're a cynic, aren't you? Straight to the

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Speaker 1: political angle on this one. Realist, I'm an idealist. So

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Speaker 1: that's the toolist, the realist and the idealist. Here we go.

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Speaker 1: Now the while we're talking airlines, local airlines on time

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Speaker 1: statistics are improving, but they still remain below pre COVID

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Speaker 1: levels as a lack of new aircraft hamper's efforts to

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Speaker 1: meet demand.

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Speaker 2: So on time arrivals in twenty twenty four, quantus seventy

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Speaker 2: five percent, Jetstar seventy three percent, Virgin seventy two percent.

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Speaker 2: Those numbers were inflated a bit by a really good

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Speaker 2: middle part of the year. They actually came off towards

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Speaker 2: the end of the year. The long term average is

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Speaker 2: about eighty percent according to the Bureau of Infrastructure and

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Speaker 2: Transport Research Economics. So we are still below the long

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Speaker 2: term average, and we are still below the pre COVID level.

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Speaker 2: Much better though than twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three.

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Speaker 2: They were disaster years. Really, as the airlines got back

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Speaker 2: trying to get back capacity, they got back to domestic

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Speaker 2: capacity or pre COVID domestic capacity. We're still on the

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Speaker 2: way in terms of international capacity. Short as to all this,

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Speaker 2: there's just still not enough aircraft in the sky. They

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Speaker 2: were run down during COVID. Now, in Quantas's case, its

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Speaker 2: fleet is particularly old. It's got an average age of

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Speaker 2: nearly sixteen years. According to a group called Syrium, it

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Speaker 2: is the third oldest fleet of major global airlines. So

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Speaker 2: we're doing sixteen years. Singapore Airlines fl is less than

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Speaker 2: eight years. Oh, big difference. It's all about an under

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Speaker 2: I mean, the reason for that is an under investment

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Speaker 2: in planes the previous decade. Alan Joyce turned down buying

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Speaker 2: a bunch of well priced Dreamliners seven eight sevens during

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Speaker 2: his tenure. One of the big criticisms of Alan Joyce

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Speaker 2: is that he didn't do enough capital expanditship, didn't put

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Speaker 2: enough GIF money into getting planes delivered. If he had,

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Speaker 2: those planes would be online now and we wouldn't have

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Speaker 2: some of these issues. The other thing, Michael just quickly.

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Speaker 2: Ticket prices in December there were six percent lower than

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Speaker 2: a year earlier. So that's some good news.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, a little bit of good news. There shan not

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Speaker 1: so good news as this next story, and we've mentioned

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Speaker 1: in this at the top of the show. The National

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Speaker 1: Australian Bank Well Being Index is back to record lows,

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Speaker 1: reflecting growing anxiety in parts of the population and lower

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Speaker 1: life satisfaction. What are we so anxious about? I would

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Speaker 1: assume it's money at cost of living pressures, all that

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Speaker 1: kind of thing.

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Speaker 2: Yes, it is so the big financial I mean financial

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Speaker 2: stress is one of the big drivers of well being.

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Speaker 2: NAB has been doing this survey for more than ten years.

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Speaker 2: It's a quarterly survey. What it found. The headline out

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Speaker 2: of yesterday's results whether Australians were becoming less patient, less

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Speaker 2: polite and less kind.

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Speaker 1: It's disappointing.

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Speaker 2: I don't know, Michael.

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Speaker 1: I'm guessing they interviewed you for this survey.

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Speaker 2: Did no, No, not at all. Financial concerns are growing,

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Speaker 2: particularly among thirty to forty nine year olds and a

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Speaker 2: young among younger people as well. It just seems that

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Speaker 2: all the hurt in the past couple of years, the

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Speaker 2: post COVID years, particularly around finance, has been really hard

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Speaker 2: to overcome, and so no one's overly upbeat about the future.

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Speaker 2: The survey explores how Australians feel about their lives in

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Speaker 2: response to changing economic and social conditions, you know, as

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Speaker 2: well as the personal finance. It's an interesting concept. The

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Speaker 2: vibe of the economy is how National Australia Ben put it.

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Speaker 2: It really does matter because if you feel better about stuff,

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Speaker 2: quite apart from the actual data, you tend to get

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Speaker 2: better economic growth. Now. NAB has been tracking this since

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Speaker 2: twenty thirteen and the December quarter was an equal survey low.

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Speaker 2: In NAB's words, many Australians are fatigued by enduring economic

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Speaker 2: uncertainty and lack of a clear vision for a better future,

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Speaker 2: and this is translated into how they feel more broadly

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Speaker 2: about the quality of their lives.

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Speaker 1: That's not going to improve anytime soon than it. I'm

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Speaker 1: just thinking, of course, about an election campaign, which is

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Speaker 1: always defined by uncertainty. And that's why kind of businesses

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Speaker 1: just put everything on pause during an election campaign because

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Speaker 1: everything is uncertain. So we've got at least another kind

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Speaker 1: of three at least months of uncertainty ahead.

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Speaker 2: Of us one one big, big, big, big caveat to that.

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Speaker 2: If we've got an inter straight cut in February, ah,

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Speaker 2: good point, people would feel a lot better.

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Speaker 1: That'd be a big boost to spirits local market Sean.

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Speaker 1: How did they perform yesterday?

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Speaker 2: The local share market fell just over half a percent,

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Speaker 2: finished at eight three hundred and seventy nine points. The

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump commentary on tariff's isn't really helping. He's talked

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Speaker 2: about tariffs and Mexico and Canada from February one, China

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Speaker 2: from February one. He also threw the European Union into

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Speaker 2: it that one as well. A raw battery metals companies

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Speaker 2: struggled yesterday, as did the big miners, and retailers didn't

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Speaker 2: do so well or the big banks for lower in

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Speaker 2: Corporate News Network posted record net inflows in the December

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Speaker 2: quarter as the company rolled out a series of technology improvements,

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Speaker 2: Its share price jumped, and Baying Capital upped its offer

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Speaker 2: for Insignia, matching the four dollar sixty per share offer

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Speaker 2: put by rival bit at CC Capital. In Sydney's share

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Speaker 2: prices doubled since September last year.

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Speaker 1: And international markets here sean, can you can you do

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Speaker 1: this without too many mentioned of the new president?

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Speaker 2: Yep, yep, yep. Oil prices continue to head south. Bitcoins

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Speaker 2: down to one hundred and two thousand US dollars a unit,

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Speaker 2: actually back to oil prices. Yeah, what's exciting there, right?

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Speaker 2: NRMA came out yesterday. It was not exciting. It's cautionary.

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Speaker 2: Enermy came out yesterday.

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Speaker 1: That's very different, and they basically said.

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Speaker 2: Fill up your car now, So you probably only go

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Speaker 2: about eight hours to do it. Because in Sydney at least,

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Speaker 2: petrol prices are on the rise, and the average price

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Speaker 2: of unleaded petrol in that city was a dollar eighty

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Speaker 2: four perliter. It's going to hit two dollars per liter.

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Speaker 2: So if you haven't filled up and you're about to travel,

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Speaker 2: fill up. According to an hour. I may we are

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Speaker 2: talking about international markets, talking about the Sydney petrol market

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Speaker 2: is anything but international. Let's go back back at Japan.

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Speaker 2: They're expected the central banks meeting today, expected to lift

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Speaker 2: rates today. That economy finally is recovering. It's still the

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Speaker 2: world's third largest economy behind the US and China a

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Speaker 2: really big player, especially for Australia where we saw a

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Speaker 2: lot of stuff like Cole too. So good news in

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Speaker 2: terms of the economy picking up. When we were talking

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Speaker 2: about lifting interest rates, we're talking about lifting them from

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Speaker 2: very very low levels. Gold prices hit their highest levels

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Speaker 2: since October last year, and the Aussie dollar is training

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Speaker 2: just under sixty three.

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Speaker 1: US sense mad it the whole way through without mentioning

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Speaker 1: the US President. I will now mention the US President.

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Speaker 1: Please show on because our interview coming up after the

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Speaker 1: show is a terrific look at the companies in the

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Speaker 1: US that are affected by the inauguration of Donald And

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Speaker 1: speaking to Josh Gilbert from me Toro.

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Speaker 2: Sure we go through companies like Meta Alphabet, Nvidia, Apple, Tesla,

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Speaker 2: obviously Aline Mask what does Donald Trump's election mean for

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Speaker 2: those stocks specifically? It is a fascinating chat Yeah.

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Speaker 1: And of course those they all have one thing in

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Speaker 1: common and that their leaders or their founders were all

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Speaker 1: front and center at the inauguration of Donald Trump. So

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Speaker 1: there's great proximity to the president. And so that I

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Speaker 1: found that really interesting that in that conversation, because Josh

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Speaker 1: is very upfront about his views on what that means

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Speaker 1: for each of these companies and what it means then

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Speaker 1: for investors. So stick around for that one. Sean one

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Speaker 1: last one before we get to international news. The Australian

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Speaker 1: Securities Exchange the AX, the company itself right has explained

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Speaker 1: why the market went down on the Friday before Christmas.

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Speaker 1: It was the first time in its history that all

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Speaker 1: batches of trades couldn't be completed.

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Speaker 2: Yes, so CEO Helen loft House said it was a

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Speaker 2: highly irregular incident. Given it's never happened before, I'd say

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Speaker 2: that it's a definition of highly irregular. And the AX

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Speaker 2: Limited will provide a million dollars in good will payments

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Speaker 2: to stockbrokers who use the system known as chess and

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Speaker 2: were disadvantaged on that Friday. The problem there wasn't enough

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Speaker 2: computer memory allocated to settle trades on that day. Interestingly,

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Speaker 2: it was a bug in the system effectively that had

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Speaker 2: been there since the system was introduced in twenty fourteen.

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Speaker 2: It's i mean lurking the system for years. Hit on

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Speaker 2: that day, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission boss Sho

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Speaker 2: Longo yesterday told the AOFI that the ASEX Limited could

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Speaker 2: face new regulatory action as a result. Now it's already

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Speaker 2: facing scrutiny over failure to replace that chess system in

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Speaker 2: recent years, and bungled that one as well. So plenty

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Speaker 2: going on for the ASEX Limited.

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Speaker 1: All right, turning to international news now, Donald Trump had

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Speaker 1: his first sit down interview with a TV station as

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Speaker 1: second time president yesterday. The interviewer was longtime supporter Sean

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Speaker 1: Hannity from Fox. It was a relatively tame affair.

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Speaker 2: Well, they all they agreed with each other. There was

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Speaker 2: one moment where Sean Hannity tried to interrupt Donald Trump,

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Speaker 2: who off on a tangent and the President didn't like that.

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Speaker 2: But otherwise it kind of went through his normal critical

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Speaker 2: of Joe Biden and Joe Biden's pardons. He bemoaned what

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Speaker 2: he called were the disasters under the previous president. He

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Speaker 2: is worried about migrants coming to Australia. He said, the

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Speaker 2: ones with tattoos all over could be troubled.

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Speaker 1: That is fantastic.

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Speaker 2: Who knows. During the day yesterday, Trump signaled a tough

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Speaker 2: stance on Russia, demanding President Vladimir Putin come to the

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Speaker 2: table to make a peace deal or risk more US sanctions.

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Speaker 2: Of course, he said he would finish that war within

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Speaker 2: twenty four hours of taking office. Hasn't quite managed that.

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Speaker 2: He also warned that he might cut federal funding for

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Speaker 2: states that operate sanctuary cities for undocumented migrants. So he's

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Speaker 2: very much doubled down on the idea that undocumented migrants

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Speaker 2: need to leave the country, and he's threatening organizations who

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Speaker 2: hide them, who don't seek them out, to send them home.

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Speaker 1: And his richest supporter, Elon Musk, doesn't like the only

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Speaker 1: major spending initiative that's been announce so far, the five

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Speaker 1: hundred billion US dollar Stargate project to build infrastructure for AI.

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Speaker 2: So Donald Trump we announced that, called it a monumental

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Speaker 2: undertaking and resounding declaration of confidence in America's potential under

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Speaker 2: a new president. Musk right on X they don't have

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Speaker 2: the money. Talking about the contributors to the project. Open

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Speaker 2: AI's chief executive Sam Altman his apartment. He's part of

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Speaker 2: a team that made that initial announcement, with Trump open

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Speaker 2: AI putting some of the money into it. Altman came

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Speaker 2: out and said Musk was wrong. The Tesla boss then

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Speaker 2: called Stargate fake an Altman a swindler. Now a very

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Speaker 2: unusual move for a White House official, which Elon Musk

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Speaker 2: is to poke holes in the administration's policy, at least publicly.

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Speaker 2: Particularly on about day three. You just feel that this

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Speaker 2: friendship is going to have some rough patches.

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Speaker 1: It's going to sour pretty quickly. You and Sean when

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Speaker 1: it happened. God, it's going to be spectacular, isn't Everyone's

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Speaker 1: waiting for it, considering both of them own social media

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Speaker 1: networks as well, because you've got truth Social and you've

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Speaker 1: got x and it's just going to be whoa something

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Speaker 1: else altogether. One last one quick one. Sean New Zealanders

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Speaker 1: are leaving New Zealand in record numbers as the country's

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Speaker 1: economy remains in recession. That's trying.

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Speaker 2: In the twelve months to November twenty twenty four, a

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Speaker 2: record number of Kiwi's left the nation one hundred and

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Speaker 2: twenty seven, eight hundred. Well, that was the number of

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Speaker 2: people that left, but more than fifty percent of those

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Speaker 2: work New Zealand citizens. New Zealand's got a population of

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Speaker 2: five point three million dollars, but it's this economy has

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Speaker 2: really struggled on the back of very high interest rates.

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Speaker 1: Okay. Up next is the Fear and Greed Daily Interview.

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Speaker 1: We mentioned it before. We're speaking to Josh Gilbert from

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Speaker 1: me Toro. Definitely a good one for investors to have

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Speaker 1: listened to. It is coming up in the Fear and

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Speaker 1: Greed playlist on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot

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Speaker 1: com dot au and stick around for midday as well.

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Speaker 1: Today there's a new episode of Ask Fear and Greed.

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Speaker 1: Whill we answer listen to questions? Thank you very much, Sean,

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Speaker 1: Thank you, Michael. It is Friday, the twenty fourth of

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Speaker 1: January twenty twenty five. Make sure you're following the podcast

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Speaker 1: and please join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok

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Speaker 1: and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson. That was Fear and Greed.

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Speaker 1: Have a great day.