1 00:00:06,320 --> 00:00:09,440 Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed. A Chinese startup creates a 2 00:00:09,560 --> 00:00:13,480 Speaker 1: much cheaper competitor to Chat gpt sending share prices on 3 00:00:13,520 --> 00:00:17,640 Speaker 1: Wall Street and the ASX tumbling. It's Iday inflation day, 4 00:00:17,680 --> 00:00:20,760 Speaker 1: that is, with markets hopeful a low CPI figure will 5 00:00:20,800 --> 00:00:23,880 Speaker 1: trigger a rate cut next month, and the AFL fights 6 00:00:23,880 --> 00:00:26,360 Speaker 1: for a bigger slice of the wagering dollar. Plus more 7 00:00:26,400 --> 00:00:30,360 Speaker 1: on the Sigma Healthcare chemist Warehouse merger and Honda's ambitious 8 00:00:30,400 --> 00:00:33,440 Speaker 1: targets in the motorcycle world. Welcome to Fear and Greed, 9 00:00:33,520 --> 00:00:35,919 Speaker 1: daily business news for people who make their own decisions. 10 00:00:35,960 --> 00:00:39,240 Speaker 1: It is Wednesday, the twenty ninth of January twenty twenty five. 11 00:00:39,520 --> 00:00:41,720 Speaker 1: I'm Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean Aylmer. 12 00:00:42,000 --> 00:00:43,760 Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael, Sean. 13 00:00:43,800 --> 00:00:46,720 Speaker 1: The main story this morning, the emergence of China based 14 00:00:46,880 --> 00:00:50,720 Speaker 1: Deep Seak has sent Tex stocks around the globe tumbling, 15 00:00:50,760 --> 00:00:53,920 Speaker 1: with Leader and Video at one point losing close to 16 00:00:54,000 --> 00:00:58,320 Speaker 1: one trillion dollars in value, the biggest loss in value 17 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:01,880 Speaker 1: terms ever by a company in just one session. The 18 00:01:01,960 --> 00:01:03,040 Speaker 1: numbers here are staggering. 19 00:01:03,040 --> 00:01:06,440 Speaker 2: Shown what an incredible thirty six hours or so. Deep 20 00:01:06,520 --> 00:01:11,320 Speaker 2: SIG's AI assistant is a chatbot to rival chat GPT. 21 00:01:12,280 --> 00:01:15,920 Speaker 2: On Monday, it was the most downloaded app on Apple's 22 00:01:15,959 --> 00:01:20,640 Speaker 2: iPhone store. What scared investors is that pretty much out 23 00:01:20,640 --> 00:01:24,160 Speaker 2: of the blue, a China startup has caught up with 24 00:01:24,240 --> 00:01:27,880 Speaker 2: the American companies at an absolute fraction of the cost. 25 00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:31,679 Speaker 2: If that's the case, then has the vast amounts of 26 00:01:31,720 --> 00:01:35,040 Speaker 2: money ustch companies have spent on data centers and chips 27 00:01:35,040 --> 00:01:38,840 Speaker 2: and energy been worth it. The Chinese don't have a 28 00:01:38,880 --> 00:01:42,840 Speaker 2: better chip, They don't necessarily have a better chatbot. They 29 00:01:42,920 --> 00:01:48,280 Speaker 2: just have one as good as chat GPT, and certainly 30 00:01:48,360 --> 00:01:51,440 Speaker 2: a lot cheaper. It's also open source and free to use, 31 00:01:51,480 --> 00:01:55,920 Speaker 2: so other developers can jump on board. Significantly, it uses 32 00:01:56,040 --> 00:01:59,360 Speaker 2: Nvidia chips to train the system, but not as many 33 00:01:59,480 --> 00:02:02,280 Speaker 2: as rivals such as chat GPT, and they're not actually 34 00:02:02,280 --> 00:02:05,600 Speaker 2: the highest performing chips either. At least that's the claim. Now. 35 00:02:05,640 --> 00:02:08,000 Speaker 2: What we really have to point out here is these 36 00:02:08,040 --> 00:02:12,440 Speaker 2: are comments from the Chinese, and we're assuming we have 37 00:02:12,520 --> 00:02:14,720 Speaker 2: to take it at face value that that is all correct. 38 00:02:14,960 --> 00:02:18,200 Speaker 2: Though people like Elon Musk and others have thrown a 39 00:02:18,240 --> 00:02:20,680 Speaker 2: few bombs into the discussion saying, well, we don't believe 40 00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:23,200 Speaker 2: what they say, but certainly at face value, we need 41 00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:26,079 Speaker 2: to say that, you know, Deep Seak is the emergency 42 00:02:26,080 --> 00:02:30,400 Speaker 2: of this great new technology. Point is, if this is 43 00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:33,040 Speaker 2: all true, you're probably not going to need as many 44 00:02:33,120 --> 00:02:36,520 Speaker 2: Nvidia chips as you might have thought. Hence you get 45 00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:39,799 Speaker 2: that massive sell off in Nvidia yesterday. You know, it's 46 00:02:39,840 --> 00:02:44,680 Speaker 2: more than six hundred billion US dollars. And Vidia released 47 00:02:44,680 --> 00:02:47,600 Speaker 2: the statement basically saying Deep Seak's work was an excellent 48 00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:50,800 Speaker 2: AI advancement. You know, how to wrap this up, It's 49 00:02:50,880 --> 00:02:53,119 Speaker 2: kind of like why buy a Tesla and a BYD 50 00:02:53,280 --> 00:02:56,120 Speaker 2: will do? China just isn't that far behind in the 51 00:02:56,160 --> 00:02:58,880 Speaker 2: tech arms race. Certainly not as far behind as Wall 52 00:02:58,919 --> 00:03:02,560 Speaker 2: Street thought, and that has really spooked markets. 53 00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:05,799 Speaker 1: Well, certainly has. And I was just to put kind 54 00:03:05,800 --> 00:03:08,720 Speaker 1: of some scale, a sense of the scale around this, Sean. 55 00:03:08,760 --> 00:03:11,399 Speaker 1: I was looking at some of the stats around that 56 00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:14,440 Speaker 1: that fall just for Nvidia, right, and other companies were 57 00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:16,880 Speaker 1: affected as well. I think Oracle was one of the 58 00:03:16,880 --> 00:03:22,200 Speaker 1: others that was affected by this. But Nvidia, with its tumble, 59 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:25,880 Speaker 1: just the amount that it lost was larger than the 60 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:31,560 Speaker 1: individual market values of all but thirteen American companies. Isn't 61 00:03:31,600 --> 00:03:34,639 Speaker 1: that amazing? It's more amazing more than the market cap 62 00:03:34,680 --> 00:03:38,160 Speaker 1: of things like Exon Mobile and Costco and a bunch 63 00:03:38,200 --> 00:03:40,480 Speaker 1: of these other kind of giants. And that was just 64 00:03:40,560 --> 00:03:44,840 Speaker 1: the amount that Nvidia lost in its market value. I 65 00:03:44,840 --> 00:03:48,600 Speaker 1: thought that was just staggering. But bigger picture here, what 66 00:03:48,760 --> 00:03:50,680 Speaker 1: does this mean for international markets? 67 00:03:51,120 --> 00:03:54,800 Speaker 2: It's triggered a rethink of the value of the big 68 00:03:54,840 --> 00:03:57,400 Speaker 2: tech companies. Obviously Nvidio was sold off. Some of the 69 00:03:57,400 --> 00:04:01,440 Speaker 2: tech companies yesterday actually rose even though we heard this news. 70 00:04:01,560 --> 00:04:04,240 Speaker 2: It's just made people rethink that what are these worth? 71 00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:07,360 Speaker 2: If China can create a chat GPT equivalent at a 72 00:04:07,440 --> 00:04:10,040 Speaker 2: much much lower cost, reports to saying it was about 73 00:04:10,080 --> 00:04:13,720 Speaker 2: six million US dollars, what else can developers in that 74 00:04:13,800 --> 00:04:16,520 Speaker 2: country do? Are the big Wall Street tech companies really 75 00:04:16,560 --> 00:04:18,120 Speaker 2: worth as much as we thought? Do we need as 76 00:04:18,120 --> 00:04:20,839 Speaker 2: many data centers? Do we need as much energy as 77 00:04:20,880 --> 00:04:23,560 Speaker 2: we thought? This has all sorts of flow on to 78 00:04:23,640 --> 00:04:26,760 Speaker 2: a bunch of sectors. Now. The Magnificent seven tech stocks 79 00:04:26,800 --> 00:04:28,880 Speaker 2: have spoken about them for years. They count for about 80 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:30,760 Speaker 2: forty percent of the S and P five hundred. They 81 00:04:30,760 --> 00:04:33,800 Speaker 2: are priced to perfection, as in any bad news can 82 00:04:33,800 --> 00:04:38,599 Speaker 2: trigger a sell off. A lot of local superannuation funds 83 00:04:38,680 --> 00:04:44,320 Speaker 2: invest in these magnificent seven stocks. Often investors try and 84 00:04:44,720 --> 00:04:47,279 Speaker 2: match what they call the Misky World Index, so it's 85 00:04:47,320 --> 00:04:50,080 Speaker 2: like a big bunch of stocks altogether. Now the US 86 00:04:50,080 --> 00:04:52,040 Speaker 2: stocks account for about seventy five percent of that. If 87 00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:55,360 Speaker 2: my superfund is buying into the Misky index to say 88 00:04:55,360 --> 00:04:57,520 Speaker 2: I just want exposure to global stocks the easy way 89 00:04:57,560 --> 00:05:00,120 Speaker 2: of doing it, Well, if all those US stocks are 90 00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:03,280 Speaker 2: being sold off, that ain't real good for my super returns. 91 00:05:03,800 --> 00:05:10,159 Speaker 2: So this has far reaching implications. It's a fascinating story 92 00:05:10,360 --> 00:05:12,960 Speaker 2: in investing over the last thirty six hours, and one 93 00:05:13,000 --> 00:05:14,160 Speaker 2: you don't get that often. 94 00:05:15,000 --> 00:05:16,880 Speaker 1: It seems a very good time, Sean to mention the 95 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:19,080 Speaker 1: interview that we have coming up after the show, because 96 00:05:19,080 --> 00:05:21,440 Speaker 1: you say that it's a fascinating time for investors. Someone 97 00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:24,919 Speaker 1: who has a great insight into this is Roger Montgomery 98 00:05:24,960 --> 00:05:26,600 Speaker 1: from Montgomery Investment Management. 99 00:05:27,040 --> 00:05:29,320 Speaker 2: He's been talking about froth and bubble in some of 100 00:05:29,360 --> 00:05:33,080 Speaker 2: these tech stocks for a little while. Now you can't 101 00:05:33,200 --> 00:05:36,080 Speaker 2: say that what's happened in the last thirty six hours 102 00:05:36,240 --> 00:05:40,159 Speaker 2: is proof of that, but it certainly is typical of 103 00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:42,520 Speaker 2: a market with froth and bubble. And we talk to 104 00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:47,240 Speaker 2: Roger all about that how he thinks investors should think 105 00:05:47,279 --> 00:05:50,760 Speaker 2: about what's gone on and how they should set themselves 106 00:05:50,760 --> 00:05:51,359 Speaker 2: for the future. 107 00:05:51,760 --> 00:05:53,680 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a really good chatter. It's coming up after 108 00:05:53,680 --> 00:05:56,919 Speaker 1: the show, so stick around for that one. How much 109 00:05:57,200 --> 00:06:00,200 Speaker 1: sean local now perspective? How much of the fallout from 110 00:06:00,200 --> 00:06:02,640 Speaker 1: Wall Street hit the local market yesterday? 111 00:06:02,839 --> 00:06:04,640 Speaker 2: Well, the stocks that were hit hardest with the data 112 00:06:04,680 --> 00:06:07,200 Speaker 2: center owners. The idea being if you can get much 113 00:06:07,320 --> 00:06:09,160 Speaker 2: cheaper products out of China, maybe you don't need all 114 00:06:09,200 --> 00:06:11,719 Speaker 2: these big data centers. So next DC was down seven percent, 115 00:06:11,720 --> 00:06:14,839 Speaker 2: Goodman Group down seven and a half percent. Digico, another 116 00:06:14,920 --> 00:06:18,000 Speaker 2: data center player, was down twelve percent. It also hit 117 00:06:18,160 --> 00:06:21,080 Speaker 2: the uranium providers. Maybe the world just doesn't need as 118 00:06:21,160 --> 00:06:23,520 Speaker 2: much energy as we thought it might in the future, 119 00:06:23,600 --> 00:06:26,880 Speaker 2: so Deep, Yellow, Palette and Energy Boss Energy. They were 120 00:06:26,920 --> 00:06:29,760 Speaker 2: the worst three of the top two hundred yesterday, down 121 00:06:29,839 --> 00:06:32,640 Speaker 2: ten percent or more. It's kind of a funny day 122 00:06:32,720 --> 00:06:36,000 Speaker 2: because some really big moves among some decent sized stocks, 123 00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:37,720 Speaker 2: But by the end of the market it was by 124 00:06:37,720 --> 00:06:39,479 Speaker 2: the end of the day the market was actually flat. 125 00:06:39,520 --> 00:06:42,160 Speaker 2: It was down ten points or something, rather finishing at 126 00:06:42,200 --> 00:06:44,920 Speaker 2: eighty three hundred and nine to nine points. If you 127 00:06:45,000 --> 00:06:47,920 Speaker 2: get beyond the data centers, and the uranium stocks, even 128 00:06:47,920 --> 00:06:50,120 Speaker 2: the tech stocks. The actual banks had a really good 129 00:06:50,160 --> 00:06:53,239 Speaker 2: day in National Australia, Bank, Westpac, ain Z, West Farmers 130 00:06:53,240 --> 00:06:56,840 Speaker 2: did well, Aristocrat Leisure, ariaqbe zero. The point about that 131 00:06:56,960 --> 00:07:00,800 Speaker 2: is a lot of disparate stocks did really well. The 132 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:04,000 Speaker 2: not so strong performance so the energy companies didn't do 133 00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:08,920 Speaker 2: so well Woodside and Santos, Transurban, Macquari, group Wise, Tech Promedicus. 134 00:07:09,400 --> 00:07:11,840 Speaker 2: Plenty of corporate news around as well, Michael, Just very quickly, 135 00:07:11,840 --> 00:07:14,760 Speaker 2: I'll give you the highlights. Myers takeover of Premier Investments 136 00:07:14,760 --> 00:07:18,240 Speaker 2: apparel brands is complete. What's that mean? Well, Dottie, JJ's 137 00:07:18,400 --> 00:07:20,960 Speaker 2: just jenis all part of my nowadays. That's a four 138 00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:24,680 Speaker 2: billion dollar annual sales company. Seven hundred and eighty three outlets. 139 00:07:25,000 --> 00:07:27,560 Speaker 2: Commonwealth Bank had a stake about five and a half 140 00:07:27,600 --> 00:07:31,440 Speaker 2: percent of a Chinese headquartered commercial bank called Bank of 141 00:07:31,520 --> 00:07:33,880 Speaker 2: hangs out They seld that for nine hundred and forty 142 00:07:33,920 --> 00:07:37,720 Speaker 2: million dollars. Gold Digger Neumont sold the mining operation in 143 00:07:37,760 --> 00:07:41,559 Speaker 2: Canada and Fortes QW Metals Group is buying red Hawk Mining, 144 00:07:41,600 --> 00:07:44,160 Speaker 2: which is an iroine ore company in Western Australia, for 145 00:07:44,200 --> 00:07:46,240 Speaker 2: about two hundred and fifty million dollars, it's got the 146 00:07:46,360 --> 00:07:47,800 Speaker 2: backing of the red Hawk board. 147 00:07:49,480 --> 00:07:54,200 Speaker 1: Anything else there? Sure, it's just what an extraordinary as 148 00:07:54,200 --> 00:07:56,160 Speaker 1: you say, thirty six hours. 149 00:07:55,920 --> 00:07:57,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, fantastic, great fun. 150 00:07:57,920 --> 00:08:01,480 Speaker 1: Oh certainly is international. I know we've covered kind of 151 00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:04,880 Speaker 1: Wall Street extensively. What else is going on though globally? 152 00:08:05,440 --> 00:08:08,640 Speaker 2: Not surprisingly Asian markets European markets were sold off in 153 00:08:08,720 --> 00:08:11,680 Speaker 2: the Deep Sea News. The irony, well not the irony. 154 00:08:11,880 --> 00:08:13,560 Speaker 2: The thing about it is no one's quite sure what 155 00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:16,200 Speaker 2: it means. So the initial point was to sell off, 156 00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:20,160 Speaker 2: but we'll see some of the riskier current assets didn't 157 00:08:20,160 --> 00:08:22,480 Speaker 2: do so well. So Bitcoin fell back low one hundred 158 00:08:22,480 --> 00:08:25,720 Speaker 2: thousand US dollars a unit. Our goal was a touch flower. 159 00:08:25,800 --> 00:08:28,640 Speaker 2: Brent cruds also down the Aussie dollars trading around sixty 160 00:08:28,680 --> 00:08:29,920 Speaker 2: three US sense. 161 00:08:30,240 --> 00:08:31,760 Speaker 1: How much of it is kind of like a fear 162 00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:34,360 Speaker 1: kind of contagion kind of thing when you start seeing 163 00:08:34,400 --> 00:08:37,559 Speaker 1: markets going and then it just spreads to Asian and 164 00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:40,240 Speaker 1: European markets following kind of Wall Street and the NASDAK. 165 00:08:41,040 --> 00:08:44,320 Speaker 2: I mean, I would say like ninety percent or something 166 00:08:44,360 --> 00:08:46,440 Speaker 2: or other on a day like that when Wall Street 167 00:08:46,520 --> 00:08:50,360 Speaker 2: sells off, mostly because people aren't like uncertainty. People aren't 168 00:08:50,360 --> 00:08:52,520 Speaker 2: sure what this means and what it means for the 169 00:08:52,520 --> 00:08:55,520 Speaker 2: big techtocks. Plenty of people hold them, people start selling. 170 00:08:55,720 --> 00:08:57,800 Speaker 1: Okay, all right, so much more still to come, Sean. 171 00:08:57,840 --> 00:09:01,240 Speaker 1: We're talking inflation, We're talking about AFL. We've got a 172 00:09:01,240 --> 00:09:04,880 Speaker 1: sorry about Honda, and my favorite story of the day. 173 00:09:05,480 --> 00:09:07,800 Speaker 1: You know it's going to be this one, Sean, the 174 00:09:07,880 --> 00:09:12,160 Speaker 1: successor to the concord. We've got a cracking story about that. 175 00:09:12,240 --> 00:09:13,960 Speaker 1: It's all coming up. We'll be back in a moment 176 00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:24,400 Speaker 1: with the rest of the day's business news. Sean, is 177 00:09:24,400 --> 00:09:26,760 Speaker 1: a big day today, I dame. I don't know if 178 00:09:26,800 --> 00:09:28,360 Speaker 1: that's really going to catch on. 179 00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:29,160 Speaker 2: Probably not. 180 00:09:29,520 --> 00:09:31,280 Speaker 1: That doesn't have much of a ring to it, doesn't. 181 00:09:31,280 --> 00:09:34,240 Speaker 1: But inflation figures are due for release at eleven thirty 182 00:09:34,280 --> 00:09:38,240 Speaker 1: this morning. What what's the expectation here? What a market's 183 00:09:38,280 --> 00:09:39,320 Speaker 1: predicting will happen. 184 00:09:39,520 --> 00:09:42,360 Speaker 2: There's a lot of hope for an interest rate cut 185 00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:45,680 Speaker 2: next month. The best way of looking at that in 186 00:09:45,760 --> 00:09:47,920 Speaker 2: terms of the markets is look at the three year 187 00:09:47,960 --> 00:09:51,960 Speaker 2: bond rate. That shows expectations of interest rates on average 188 00:09:52,120 --> 00:09:55,280 Speaker 2: over the next three years. It's at its lowest point 189 00:09:55,360 --> 00:09:58,240 Speaker 2: in six weeks three point eight to two percent. That 190 00:09:58,559 --> 00:10:02,760 Speaker 2: is about two interest rate cuts, so about fifty bases 191 00:10:02,800 --> 00:10:06,120 Speaker 2: points below what the cash rate is. So that's really 192 00:10:06,200 --> 00:10:11,360 Speaker 2: saying that they think rates are going to fall soon. Now, 193 00:10:11,400 --> 00:10:13,120 Speaker 2: the bond markets a price and a sixty eight percent 194 00:10:13,200 --> 00:10:15,240 Speaker 2: chance of a rate cut next month, one hundred percent 195 00:10:15,320 --> 00:10:19,200 Speaker 2: chance that something will happen by the end of April. 196 00:10:19,440 --> 00:10:22,600 Speaker 2: The shock in tech stocks also helped push yields lower 197 00:10:22,640 --> 00:10:28,480 Speaker 2: because the deep seak news. If anything scares markets, that 198 00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:31,920 Speaker 2: doesn't help the economy, and that's another reason at the 199 00:10:31,960 --> 00:10:35,000 Speaker 2: margins to lower interest rates. The figures are out late 200 00:10:35,040 --> 00:10:39,319 Speaker 2: this morning. Remember a zero point five percent quarterly underlying 201 00:10:39,720 --> 00:10:43,520 Speaker 2: reading means that rate cuts are on zero point seven 202 00:10:43,559 --> 00:10:48,320 Speaker 2: percent quarterly underlying reading. A zero point seven percent reading, 203 00:10:48,679 --> 00:10:51,760 Speaker 2: it's just rate cuts are off zero point six percent. Well, 204 00:10:51,880 --> 00:10:55,000 Speaker 2: depends what you want to look at. Very closely watched 205 00:10:55,040 --> 00:10:58,720 Speaker 2: will be how services inflation is going visa v goods inflation. 206 00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:01,400 Speaker 1: Sean, I know of us this before, but I'm going 207 00:11:01,440 --> 00:11:05,360 Speaker 1: to ask you it again. Markets pricing in the chance 208 00:11:05,360 --> 00:11:08,280 Speaker 1: of a rate cut when they are saying a one 209 00:11:08,400 --> 00:11:12,960 Speaker 1: hundred percent chance in April, how is that the case? 210 00:11:13,080 --> 00:11:16,400 Speaker 1: How is that possible that they are essentially guaranteeing that 211 00:11:16,480 --> 00:11:18,320 Speaker 1: to be the outcome. 212 00:11:18,960 --> 00:11:22,760 Speaker 2: So they're actually inferring it, so they can't. They're taking 213 00:11:22,920 --> 00:11:27,000 Speaker 2: a bet. Think of it as a horse race. They're 214 00:11:27,040 --> 00:11:30,800 Speaker 2: taking a bet on something happening. And so in a 215 00:11:30,800 --> 00:11:33,200 Speaker 2: horse race, you might have an odds on favorite, everyone 216 00:11:33,240 --> 00:11:36,440 Speaker 2: thinks that that horse is absolutely going to win. You 217 00:11:36,480 --> 00:11:40,360 Speaker 2: can't guarantee that it's the same in bond markets with 218 00:11:40,440 --> 00:11:42,480 Speaker 2: one hundred percent chance. What they're saying is we are 219 00:11:42,600 --> 00:11:45,520 Speaker 2: certain that it's going to happen. Maybe because of course 220 00:11:45,520 --> 00:11:46,400 Speaker 2: I don't know what it's going to. 221 00:11:46,400 --> 00:11:49,559 Speaker 1: Happen, So they might be more accurately saying kind of 222 00:11:49,640 --> 00:11:52,079 Speaker 1: ninety eight percent chance or percent chance. 223 00:11:52,240 --> 00:11:55,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, they're saying, we believe it will happen. That's actually 224 00:11:55,160 --> 00:11:55,760 Speaker 2: what that's saying. 225 00:11:55,840 --> 00:12:00,360 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, gotcha, okay, shown Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers yes today, 226 00:12:00,400 --> 00:12:03,560 Speaker 1: said there are real reasons for people to be confident 227 00:12:03,800 --> 00:12:05,040 Speaker 1: about twenty twenty five. 228 00:12:05,640 --> 00:12:09,559 Speaker 2: Real wages are growing, He pointed out inflation's falling, tax 229 00:12:09,600 --> 00:12:12,400 Speaker 2: cuts are rolling out, plenty good news out there. He 230 00:12:12,480 --> 00:12:15,160 Speaker 2: expects growth to pick up a bit, not a lot, 231 00:12:15,240 --> 00:12:18,240 Speaker 2: just a bit. He said there's still some uncertainty around 232 00:12:18,320 --> 00:12:21,240 Speaker 2: global growth. He did point out that there's an improvement 233 00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:25,200 Speaker 2: in the cost of living. Peter Dutton was in Western Australia. 234 00:12:25,559 --> 00:12:27,840 Speaker 2: Interesting one it was asked about the cost of living 235 00:12:28,200 --> 00:12:31,360 Speaker 2: and then about the Coalition and women voters, and he said, 236 00:12:31,400 --> 00:12:35,720 Speaker 2: by and large females run household budgets. The cost of 237 00:12:35,760 --> 00:12:39,520 Speaker 2: living is a real problem. Therefore female voters will turn 238 00:12:39,559 --> 00:12:42,480 Speaker 2: to the Coalition. I don't know whether that's right or wrong. 239 00:12:42,600 --> 00:12:45,480 Speaker 2: And it's not that often that people put it in 240 00:12:45,520 --> 00:12:48,280 Speaker 2: those terms or politicians put it in those sorts of terms, 241 00:12:48,280 --> 00:12:49,720 Speaker 2: but that's what he reckons. 242 00:12:50,080 --> 00:12:52,360 Speaker 1: Okay, I mentioned this one at the top of the show. 243 00:12:52,360 --> 00:12:55,880 Speaker 1: Shown the AFL would significantly increase the amount of money 244 00:12:55,880 --> 00:12:58,440 Speaker 1: it takes from wagering on the sport under a proposal 245 00:12:58,600 --> 00:13:01,600 Speaker 1: that its administrators have to the country's big bookmakers. 246 00:13:01,920 --> 00:13:05,960 Speaker 2: The AFL is negotiating with major gambling companies including tab Corps, 247 00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:11,439 Speaker 2: sports Bettain Containers Ladbrokes needs. They want a deal that 248 00:13:11,480 --> 00:13:14,560 Speaker 2: will allow them to keep offering sports betting products in 249 00:13:14,559 --> 00:13:17,520 Speaker 2: exchange for giving the sport of a cut of the proceeds. 250 00:13:17,600 --> 00:13:19,760 Speaker 2: This is all according to report in the AFR. They're 251 00:13:19,760 --> 00:13:23,040 Speaker 2: known as product fees and the arrangements common across major 252 00:13:23,080 --> 00:13:26,720 Speaker 2: sports and bookmakers have similar agreements with the Rugby League Commission, 253 00:13:26,800 --> 00:13:29,360 Speaker 2: with the A League It's a football competition, and the 254 00:13:29,360 --> 00:13:32,560 Speaker 2: Australian Open Tennis. The AFL makes about forty million dollars 255 00:13:32,600 --> 00:13:36,559 Speaker 2: in product fees from bookmakers every year. It wants more. 256 00:13:36,679 --> 00:13:39,480 Speaker 2: It's currently at about zero point nine percent of turnover. 257 00:13:39,600 --> 00:13:42,240 Speaker 2: It wants one and a half percent of turnover according 258 00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:45,079 Speaker 2: to the finn Therefore that forty million you would think 259 00:13:45,080 --> 00:13:48,280 Speaker 2: would go up significantly. The NRL receives more than fifty 260 00:13:48,320 --> 00:13:51,880 Speaker 2: million dollars from major agreements annually. The NRL read it 261 00:13:51,880 --> 00:13:55,760 Speaker 2: its deal over summer. The product fees themselves are based 262 00:13:55,800 --> 00:13:58,560 Speaker 2: on a percentage of a bookmaker's turnover or total revenue, 263 00:13:58,679 --> 00:14:00,640 Speaker 2: so that's it's the point nine, not the one point 264 00:14:00,640 --> 00:14:03,920 Speaker 2: five percent of that and the I of hel is 265 00:14:03,960 --> 00:14:05,400 Speaker 2: hoping to get a much bigger chunk. 266 00:14:06,280 --> 00:14:10,160 Speaker 1: Sean Sigma Healthcare's share price pretty good day yesterday, jump 267 00:14:10,160 --> 00:14:14,680 Speaker 1: twelve percent after merger partner Chemists Warehouse reported record sales 268 00:14:14,720 --> 00:14:16,840 Speaker 1: and the six months to the end of December. 269 00:14:16,679 --> 00:14:19,920 Speaker 2: The pharmacy giant reported five point one five billion dollars 270 00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:21,760 Speaker 2: in sales over the half year. That was up from 271 00:14:21,800 --> 00:14:24,960 Speaker 2: four point five to six billion dollars in sales twelve 272 00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:27,840 Speaker 2: months earlier. The company said it was on the back 273 00:14:27,880 --> 00:14:32,000 Speaker 2: of new franchise store openings and international expansion. The group 274 00:14:32,080 --> 00:14:35,720 Speaker 2: also said it's implementing new supply agreements to drive efficiencies. 275 00:14:35,960 --> 00:14:40,200 Speaker 2: Sigma Healthcare and Chemists Warehouse are expected to merge next month. 276 00:14:40,640 --> 00:14:43,160 Speaker 2: You will create a thirty billion dollar company. 277 00:14:44,160 --> 00:14:46,680 Speaker 1: So good day for Sigma. Not a good day yesterday 278 00:14:46,680 --> 00:14:50,200 Speaker 1: for Newex though. The share price fell more than twenty 279 00:14:50,280 --> 00:14:53,760 Speaker 1: percent after the software provider said it would post a 280 00:14:53,800 --> 00:14:57,440 Speaker 1: fall in underlying earnings in the half year to December. Shan, 281 00:14:57,480 --> 00:15:01,640 Speaker 1: I really should say the in battle the beleagued soft beleagued. 282 00:15:02,200 --> 00:15:04,760 Speaker 2: Yes, I like that. Well it hasn't been though, I 283 00:15:04,760 --> 00:15:07,320 Speaker 2: mean so the reason for the current down grade is 284 00:15:07,360 --> 00:15:11,160 Speaker 2: project delays and the company taking on more complex contracts. 285 00:15:11,160 --> 00:15:13,160 Speaker 2: It said that growth will be weighted towards the second 286 00:15:13,200 --> 00:15:15,080 Speaker 2: half of the last year. But Newi's is one of 287 00:15:15,080 --> 00:15:17,520 Speaker 2: those incredible companies. Had a wild ride. So it was 288 00:15:17,640 --> 00:15:21,320 Speaker 2: listed in late December twenty twenty, did really well, and 289 00:15:21,360 --> 00:15:24,560 Speaker 2: then it crashed, and it absolutely crashed. It sort of 290 00:15:24,640 --> 00:15:29,040 Speaker 2: bobbled along there. They got new management seemed to improved 291 00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:31,000 Speaker 2: last year, was one of the best performing stocks in 292 00:15:31,040 --> 00:15:35,320 Speaker 2: the IX Neworks quite amazing, up four hundred percent this year, 293 00:15:35,640 --> 00:15:39,600 Speaker 2: including yesterday down thirty percent. So yes, it probably is Beligan. 294 00:15:39,760 --> 00:15:40,720 Speaker 2: That's the bot thing story. 295 00:15:41,360 --> 00:15:43,920 Speaker 1: I mean, all of those challenges that they had, that 296 00:15:44,040 --> 00:15:46,720 Speaker 1: was a it was a wild ride and we were 297 00:15:46,760 --> 00:15:49,400 Speaker 1: talking about it almost every second day. 298 00:15:49,200 --> 00:15:51,120 Speaker 2: In the early days, particularly because it was listed and 299 00:15:51,120 --> 00:15:53,560 Speaker 2: there was so much promise and they had this big 300 00:15:53,800 --> 00:15:55,400 Speaker 2: jump in the first few weeks. 301 00:15:55,480 --> 00:15:58,040 Speaker 1: But then it was the big challenge over the IPO, 302 00:15:58,400 --> 00:16:01,240 Speaker 1: wasn't it. That was all the details in their prospective. 303 00:16:01,280 --> 00:16:02,080 Speaker 2: It ended up in court. 304 00:16:02,240 --> 00:16:07,480 Speaker 1: Yep. Anyway, sean international news time. It feels like today 305 00:16:07,480 --> 00:16:09,200 Speaker 1: it feels like it's been a big day, doesn't it. 306 00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:14,640 Speaker 1: Can we talk about motorbikes? Sure, Japan's Honda Motor Company 307 00:16:15,240 --> 00:16:19,240 Speaker 1: has set a target of capture. This is a big set, 308 00:16:19,320 --> 00:16:23,280 Speaker 1: a target of capturing fifty percent of the world's motorcycle 309 00:16:23,360 --> 00:16:27,720 Speaker 1: market by twenty thirty. That's a that's a fairly solid goal. 310 00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:32,520 Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, they reckon. There'll be sixty million sales per 311 00:16:32,640 --> 00:16:38,200 Speaker 2: year by twenty thirty. This is electric and petrol Japan. 312 00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:41,280 Speaker 2: I mean, so Behonduris is currently the biggest in the 313 00:16:41,320 --> 00:16:43,760 Speaker 2: market anyway. It's got about forty percent market shairs, it 314 00:16:43,760 --> 00:16:46,800 Speaker 2: wants to get fifty percent. It sells about twenty million 315 00:16:47,000 --> 00:16:50,480 Speaker 2: units a year where it's focus on, not surprisingly if 316 00:16:50,480 --> 00:16:56,200 Speaker 2: you've been to these countries India, Indonesia, Philippines, Brazil, those 317 00:16:56,240 --> 00:17:00,880 Speaker 2: sorts of countries, because motorcycle use there is huge to cars. 318 00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:04,919 Speaker 2: It hopes to have thirty E models globally by twenty 319 00:17:05,000 --> 00:17:09,240 Speaker 2: thirty and a target of four million e bikes by then. 320 00:17:10,119 --> 00:17:12,160 Speaker 2: I think it's going to be really fascinating to watch 321 00:17:13,760 --> 00:17:18,040 Speaker 2: just the growth of motorcycles and particularly honted fifty percent 322 00:17:18,080 --> 00:17:22,280 Speaker 2: market share, that's a huge achievement. Do you reckon? 323 00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:25,440 Speaker 1: They still have a contract with Australia Post did they? 324 00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:28,720 Speaker 1: You know? Yeah, like the Posty bikes they. 325 00:17:28,600 --> 00:17:30,359 Speaker 2: Are all Hondas, were they? 326 00:17:30,640 --> 00:17:33,160 Speaker 1: Yeah? And I remember they were Actually there was talk 327 00:17:33,200 --> 00:17:36,240 Speaker 1: of them being phased out, the actual motorbikes being phased 328 00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:36,960 Speaker 1: out altogether. 329 00:17:37,359 --> 00:17:38,000 Speaker 2: And in. 330 00:17:39,720 --> 00:17:42,320 Speaker 1: Their place, you know those little carts, those little kind 331 00:17:42,359 --> 00:17:43,800 Speaker 1: of three wheel kind of things. 332 00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:45,400 Speaker 2: Oh, really have you seen those? 333 00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:48,400 Speaker 1: So they kind of and they've got a little shelter 334 00:17:50,680 --> 00:17:52,600 Speaker 1: I'm gonna put out there, it looks a bit lame, Sean. 335 00:17:54,040 --> 00:17:56,240 Speaker 2: I've got a mate as a posty. And he said, 336 00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:58,600 Speaker 2: in his first like six months or something of being 337 00:17:58,600 --> 00:18:02,240 Speaker 2: a posty, he had so many accidents, like every week 338 00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:03,560 Speaker 2: he'd fall off his bike. 339 00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:05,320 Speaker 1: So really, and he. 340 00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:08,080 Speaker 2: Said, because letterboxes are difficult to get demsy, he'd sort 341 00:18:08,080 --> 00:18:10,399 Speaker 2: of go up a siding and you didn't have steady 342 00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:12,840 Speaker 2: ground underneath you. And he was a motorbike rider. I 343 00:18:12,840 --> 00:18:13,680 Speaker 2: thought it was hilarious. 344 00:18:13,800 --> 00:18:16,439 Speaker 1: Oh gosh. Anyway, look, I might have to do a 345 00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:18,520 Speaker 1: bit more investigating on this one. 346 00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:19,640 Speaker 2: I'll come back. 347 00:18:19,880 --> 00:18:23,560 Speaker 1: I'll come back to you on that one. Concord time, 348 00:18:24,520 --> 00:18:28,760 Speaker 1: the prototype of a passenger jet meant to succeed the concord. 349 00:18:28,840 --> 00:18:31,960 Speaker 1: It was due to attempt to break the sound barrier 350 00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:36,040 Speaker 1: for the first time overnight. That's more than one two 351 00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:38,920 Speaker 1: hundred and forty kilometers per hour. That's quick. 352 00:18:39,640 --> 00:18:45,240 Speaker 2: Yeah. The Boom Supersonic XB one demonstrator was due to 353 00:18:45,280 --> 00:18:47,720 Speaker 2: exceed the barrier in a series of four minute runs 354 00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:52,080 Speaker 2: above the Mahave Desert in California. Now Boom the US 355 00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:54,080 Speaker 2: firm hopes it will pave the way for the introduction 356 00:18:54,119 --> 00:18:57,960 Speaker 2: of passenger services early next decade. According to the Telegraph 357 00:18:58,040 --> 00:19:01,520 Speaker 2: of London. That was pretty cool. When many things cool 358 00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:03,959 Speaker 2: about this, Michael, And you've probably got about another dozen 359 00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:06,760 Speaker 2: cool things because you love this industry so much. Where 360 00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:09,880 Speaker 2: was flying last night? It was the same airspace where 361 00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:12,560 Speaker 2: Chuck Jaeger became the first person to exceed the speed 362 00:19:12,560 --> 00:19:14,040 Speaker 2: of sound in nineteen forty seven. 363 00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:15,240 Speaker 1: Oh that is cool. 364 00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:18,879 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, Now the plane last night was only one 365 00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:22,760 Speaker 2: third the size of Boom's potential passenger jet. Now, when 366 00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:26,160 Speaker 2: that's manufactured to carry about sixty five passengers cost about 367 00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:29,880 Speaker 2: four hundred million dollars. Obviously, with only sixty five million, 368 00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:33,159 Speaker 2: sorry sixty five passengers, is going to be a very 369 00:19:33,240 --> 00:19:37,560 Speaker 2: very expensive plane. And I think the idea is to 370 00:19:37,760 --> 00:19:41,280 Speaker 2: actually get to one point seven mac. Is that the 371 00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:44,040 Speaker 2: speed they want to get to? Last night they turned 372 00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:46,840 Speaker 2: about one point one mac. That's the that's the speed 373 00:19:46,840 --> 00:19:51,320 Speaker 2: of sound, and so it's very cool. I mean, concords 374 00:19:51,320 --> 00:19:51,640 Speaker 2: are back. 375 00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:55,800 Speaker 1: Did you ever fly on the Concorde? I I know 376 00:19:55,840 --> 00:19:58,560 Speaker 1: that tickets were ridiculously expensive, but they often took kind 377 00:19:58,600 --> 00:20:00,560 Speaker 1: of media and everything, and I know that you were 378 00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:02,480 Speaker 1: I mean, they was still flying kind of in the 379 00:20:02,520 --> 00:20:05,119 Speaker 1: early two thousands, two thousand and three. I think it 380 00:20:05,240 --> 00:20:05,880 Speaker 1: was the last fight. 381 00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:08,160 Speaker 2: I know, guys that I worked with run the concord. 382 00:20:08,280 --> 00:20:12,159 Speaker 1: Yeah, pretty amazing thing. Did you know that that Quantas 383 00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:15,159 Speaker 1: originally had orders in for Concord. I did not know 384 00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:17,600 Speaker 1: that they were in the sixties, they placed kind of 385 00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:23,479 Speaker 1: early early orders for concords, and yeah, obviously they'll never 386 00:20:23,520 --> 00:20:25,240 Speaker 1: delivered that. They never kind of took up the option 387 00:20:25,320 --> 00:20:26,919 Speaker 1: to get them. But yeah, it was like half a 388 00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:29,200 Speaker 1: dozen concords and they were going to fly from Sydney 389 00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:32,600 Speaker 1: to London and it was going to take about kind 390 00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:35,240 Speaker 1: of six or seven stops along the way, but it 391 00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:39,360 Speaker 1: was still get there faster than the traditional route. 392 00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:42,720 Speaker 2: I think. So Concord never, I mean certainly didn't. I'm 393 00:20:42,760 --> 00:20:45,760 Speaker 2: sure it visited Australia, but I presume it visited Australia, 394 00:20:45,800 --> 00:20:49,040 Speaker 2: but it never flew roots out of Australia. Concord no never. 395 00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:52,880 Speaker 2: I mean it was like Singapore, Paris, London, New York. Yeah. 396 00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:56,360 Speaker 1: I don't think they ever came any further south than Singapore. Yeah, 397 00:20:55,920 --> 00:20:58,959 Speaker 1: but yeah, isn't that fascinating that? I Mean, Quantus has 398 00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:00,680 Speaker 1: so much history and just the fact that there was 399 00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:03,480 Speaker 1: potential that they did weigh up the idea of kind 400 00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:05,960 Speaker 1: of condens being part of the fleet. Anyway, I'm excited. 401 00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:08,600 Speaker 1: If this is kind of the next generation of Concords, 402 00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:09,720 Speaker 1: then I am on board. 403 00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:12,159 Speaker 2: Sewan excellent, which nice part, I'm. 404 00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:16,200 Speaker 1: Sure, which I'm sure really matters to the to the people. 405 00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:16,919 Speaker 2: Boom. 406 00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:20,280 Speaker 1: That's right up next Fear and Great Daily Interview. Roger 407 00:21:20,280 --> 00:21:23,800 Speaker 1: Montgomery is your guest, and he is talking all about 408 00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:25,800 Speaker 1: the big news that's been kind of the focus of 409 00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:28,000 Speaker 1: the last thirty six hours, all about AI. It is 410 00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:29,679 Speaker 1: coming up in the Fear and Great playlist on your 411 00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:32,040 Speaker 1: podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com dot au. 412 00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:33,960 Speaker 2: Thank you very much, Sean, Thank you, Michael. 413 00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:36,920 Speaker 1: It is Wednesday, the twenty ninth of January twenty twenty five. 414 00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:39,359 Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us 415 00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:42,960 Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael 416 00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:45,200 Speaker 1: Thompson and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.