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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed the week Ahead. I'm Sean Almer,

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Speaker 1: and as always I'm joined by economist Stephen Coculis. You'll

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Speaker 1: find here at the cook dot com and on x

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Speaker 1: using the handle the Kirk Stephen, Good morning.

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Speaker 2: And a very good morning toe you, Sean.

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Speaker 1: Look, we're in a bit of a lull for economic data,

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Speaker 1: let's be honest.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, last week we had the consumer and Business confidence,

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Speaker 2: which we were interesting in their own right. This week

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Speaker 2: we've only got one key release and that's the labor

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Speaker 2: force data. So normally when we get a barrage of

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Speaker 2: news every day or every second day, this has been

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Speaker 2: a period of relative quietness for new economic news on

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Speaker 2: the economy.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so very quickly, the sentiment in the sea's last

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Speaker 1: week consumer and business, what did they say?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the consumer sentiment the decks ticked up half a point,

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Speaker 2: so it's basically unchanged, so that in a sense that's

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Speaker 2: sort of encouraging, but it's still lower than it was

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Speaker 2: at the end of last year, in the early months

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Speaker 2: of twenty twenty five, when we had the first inter

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Speaker 2: straight cut back in February. This survey was conducted after

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Speaker 2: the recent rate cap from the RBA and sentiment, while

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Speaker 2: it's above where it was twelve months ago, is still

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Speaker 2: erring on the side of pessimism. That was consistent with

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Speaker 2: some of these other household spending numbers we've seen in

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Speaker 2: recent weeks where week consumers are still sort of not

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Speaker 2: spending that much. So yes, slightly disappointing. I think it's

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Speaker 2: fair to say the NAB Business Survey, which Sean I

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Speaker 2: know is one of your favorite surveys, has got so

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Speaker 2: much information in it. The confidence and business conditions inducees

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Speaker 2: were up and down a couple of ticks, but just

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Speaker 2: normal monthly volatility. I think it's fair to say for

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Speaker 2: those indicators and again erring on the side of weakness

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Speaker 2: or pessimism, you know, not pointing to recession that wouldn't

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Speaker 2: go anywhere near saying that, but just not getting that

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Speaker 2: upside impetus that we want to see from the business

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Speaker 2: sector if we're going to be seeing better economic conditions

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Speaker 2: in the second half of the year.

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Speaker 1: Now, there is only one major piece of data out,

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Speaker 1: but it is very major. Labor force. We love labor force,

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Speaker 1: especially right now.

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Speaker 2: Right now. Indeed, and gee, last month was that if

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Speaker 2: you remember that shock result you know, ninety thousand jobs

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Speaker 2: created in one month, which of course is more noise

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Speaker 2: than signal, or so we think, so that's going to

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Speaker 2: be validata otherwise with the news we get out on

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Speaker 2: Thursday with the labor force release. So I think the

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Speaker 2: market's looking for a little bit of a pullback, which

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Speaker 2: in itself will not be a concern that the economy

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Speaker 2: is hit a brick wall unless that number is a

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Speaker 2: very big negative. I think just that monthly volatility in

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Speaker 2: the seasonal adjusted numbers, I think we're looking for about

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Speaker 2: a minus twenty thousand, which after a plus ninety do

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Speaker 2: the mass moving average of about thirty thirty five thousand

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Speaker 2: a month, which is sort of okay, which is sort

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Speaker 2: of a solid number. Arguably more importantly will be the

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Speaker 2: unemployment rate. Again. It's been hovering at four to four

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Speaker 2: point one percent for the best part of a year now.

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Speaker 2: If it holds at four point one percent, than maybe

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Speaker 2: those thinking that the RBA has got a bit more

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Speaker 2: time before resuming it's interest rate cutting cycle will be

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Speaker 2: given a bit of comfort by that. The market again

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Speaker 2: is looking for four point one or four point two again,

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Speaker 2: as we've been seeing around the world, unemployment numbers can

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Speaker 2: change and change very quickly, so maybe it's the unemployment

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Speaker 2: rate that will be more important than the number of

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Speaker 2: jobs created in the month.

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Speaker 1: I just wanted to financial markets and investors in particular.

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Speaker 1: What we're saying out of the last week is the

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Speaker 1: ASX two hundred hitting a new high. We also have

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump saying well China and the US suggesting that

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Speaker 1: they're coming to some sort of agreement, but I mean,

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Speaker 1: none of the details have been released, so we're not

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Speaker 1: real sure on that. Serious tensions in the Middle East.

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Speaker 1: The domestic economy is doing oka. It seems to be

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Speaker 1: this juxtaposition of the huge uncertainty internationally and the domestic

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Speaker 1: economy looking ok. We're looking like we're getting more rate cuts.

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Speaker 1: The markets seem to be believing the domestic story and

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Speaker 1: pushing the share market to record levels rather than worrying

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Speaker 1: too much about what's happening offshore.

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Speaker 2: Look, I think that's a fair summary too, and in

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Speaker 2: in a sense, an economy is never perfect, and we

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Speaker 2: are going through a cyclical slow down period now that

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Speaker 2: we've had weakish growth for the best part of a year.

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Speaker 2: You know that per capita recession that we keep hearing

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Speaker 2: discussed about the economy. So it's not great, but it's

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Speaker 2: not catastrophic ether you would normally think with some of

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Speaker 2: these global tensions, the fact that the Chinese economy is

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Speaker 2: still very weak, that international geopolitical issue that you mentioned

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Speaker 2: still dominating a lot of world economic views, that we're

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Speaker 2: sort of still residting. Yeah, our bond markets relatively calm.

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Speaker 2: We've still got the rate cuts priced in over the

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Speaker 2: course of the next six to twelve months. As you said,

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Speaker 2: people still love equities and just by the bye. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: the housing market, you know that high frequency numbers, those

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Speaker 2: numbers we get on house prices are still looking pretty solid. Here.

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Speaker 2: We are roughly halfway through journ and house price looks

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Speaker 2: if they're going to be up again.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's pretty good. Steven, enjoy the week.

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Speaker 2: We'll do it. Thank you.

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Speaker 1: That was economist Stephen Cokurla's better known as the Kok

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Speaker 1: t h E k o u K. You can find

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Speaker 1: here at the cook dot com and follow him on

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Speaker 1: x using the handle the Kirk. I'm Shielma and this

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Speaker 1: is you're in greed. The weak Ahead