WEBVTT - The $100,000-a-month market for Trump’s posts

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Daniel James, and you're listening to seven am. Donald

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<v Speaker 1>Trump has found a new way to make money. Trump

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<v Speaker 1>Media and Technology Group is monetizing the president's social media

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<v Speaker 1>posts something Wall Street firms early access to them for

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<v Speaker 1>as much as one hundred thousand dollars a month, and

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<v Speaker 1>in the world of traders, a few milliseconds can mean

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<v Speaker 1>millions of dollars. Now, Trump is being sued over the arrangement,

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<v Speaker 1>and he claims it gives paying customers preferential access to

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<v Speaker 1>official presidential communications. At the same time, Trump Media is

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<v Speaker 1>also moving into prediction markets, a fast growing corner of

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<v Speaker 1>finance that can turn political events into betting opportunities. Today,

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<v Speaker 1>journalists for Reuter's Anabarn said on the extraordinary collision of

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<v Speaker 1>presidential power, private profit, and a booming industry where almost

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<v Speaker 1>anything can become a wager. It's Monday, August twenty four

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<v Speaker 1>a theban Trump Media, which is a company Trump owns,

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<v Speaker 1>is now charging training firms up to one hundred thousand

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<v Speaker 1>dollars a month for fast access to posts from Trump

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<v Speaker 1>and other senior officials. What exactly is being bought and

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<v Speaker 1>sold here?

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<v Speaker 2>So basically truth socialists planning to sell investors and traders

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<v Speaker 2>who deal with stocks, bonds, currencies, derivatives, and other types

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<v Speaker 2>of assets super fast access to posts from Trump himself

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<v Speaker 2>as well as other high profile accounts on the platform.

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<v Speaker 2>So basically, if you're like a high frequency treaty firm

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<v Speaker 2>or a hedge funt who wants to pay for these

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<v Speaker 2>types of posts, you will basically get faster access to

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<v Speaker 2>these posts and from Trump himself and from other high

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<v Speaker 2>profile accounts on the platform, like other government officials and lawmakers.

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<v Speaker 2>As you know, there are some of the most floaded

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<v Speaker 2>accounts on truth Social belong to Trump himself and others

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<v Speaker 2>around in his orbit, including his sons Donald Trump Junior

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<v Speaker 2>and Eric Trump, as well as some of his other

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<v Speaker 2>prominent supporters like d Bontino and Sean Hannity.

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<v Speaker 1>While can getting a presidential announcement even million seconds early,

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<v Speaker 1>it'd be worth so much money.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, So this is the sort of access that is

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<v Speaker 2>immensely valuable to like large one street trading firms and

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<v Speaker 2>hedge funds who typically generate profits that can be worth

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<v Speaker 2>hundreds of thousands of dollars or even more like sometimes

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<v Speaker 2>millions on any given trade. Because faster access to this

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<v Speaker 2>kind of market. Moving information provides like a huge speed

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<v Speaker 2>advantage to trading firms that use sophisticated algorithms and automated

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<v Speaker 2>systems to place or cancel trades. You're often looking to

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<v Speaker 2>profit from feeding differences in the prices of assets. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>that's the orbit rudge that you're looking to profit, which

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<v Speaker 2>means that how fast you respond and were talking about

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<v Speaker 2>milliseconds and nanoseconds over here, you know, and that can

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<v Speaker 2>mean the difference between let's say a million dollar loss

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<v Speaker 2>or a million dollars of profit. So that's the kind

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<v Speaker 2>of difference you know, a millisecond can make in this

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<v Speaker 2>world of high frequency trading.

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<v Speaker 1>So the s calls limit in terms of how much

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<v Speaker 1>money could potentially be made. Here, US News outlet's de

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<v Speaker 1>decept and the Freedom of the Press Foundation suing Trump

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<v Speaker 1>over this scheme. Can you tell me about the case?

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, So what happened was, like the intercept and the

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<v Speaker 2>Freedom of the Press Foundation, they basically made the argument

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<v Speaker 2>that this service violates the United States Constitution, the First

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<v Speaker 2>Amendment rights. What the First Amendment dictates is that everyone

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<v Speaker 2>gets equal access to information that is out there in

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<v Speaker 2>the market. It's like, you know, whether you are like

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<v Speaker 2>a big Want Street trading firm, or if you're like

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<v Speaker 2>a moment pop retail investor, you deserve equal access to information.

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<v Speaker 2>So the argument that the Intercept and the Freedom of

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<v Speaker 2>the Press Foundation is making is that there's no legitimate

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<v Speaker 2>government interest in selling Trump's post to private subscribers and

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<v Speaker 2>letting him profit.

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<v Speaker 1>Trump Maybea's defense is essentially that these posts of public

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<v Speaker 1>information anyway. So how has that defense been received by

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<v Speaker 1>its critics?

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<v Speaker 2>So it depends on midside of the political isle. You

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<v Speaker 2>are taddia like You've had Senator Mark Warner of Virginia

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<v Speaker 2>and a couple of other senators like Elizabeth Warren and

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<v Speaker 2>a few others who've said that this new service is

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<v Speaker 2>sort of amounts to a self dealing by the president

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<v Speaker 2>and it creates like a two tierth system for access

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<v Speaker 2>to government information.

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<v Speaker 3>Raise your hand if you believe that President Trump's selling

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<v Speaker 3>information about our economy and foreign policy to Wall Street

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<v Speaker 3>before everyone else gets access to that information is good

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<v Speaker 3>for the integrity of our capital markets. Well, there we go.

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<v Speaker 3>I see no hand. So maybe if the Republicans on

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<v Speaker 3>this committee want to strengthen the capital markets, we can

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<v Speaker 3>start by outlawing what President Trump is doing and it.

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<v Speaker 2>Sort of threatens the credibility of US capital markets. I

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<v Speaker 2>mean that's the argument that some of his critics have

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<v Speaker 2>sort of made about this service, and some legal experts

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<v Speaker 2>have also argued that this is kind of like a

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<v Speaker 2>form of insider treading, where like a handful of companies

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<v Speaker 2>be for access, you know, to privileged material on public

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<v Speaker 2>information and read massive profits you know, and the expense

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<v Speaker 2>of everyday like retail investors. So all these critics and

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<v Speaker 2>some of these legal experts, they've raised the questions around

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<v Speaker 2>whether this is just another way for Trump and his

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<v Speaker 2>family to sort of boost their fortunes by profiting of

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<v Speaker 2>policies announced by his administration.

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<v Speaker 1>Perish the thought. And on top of this, Seneban Trump

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<v Speaker 1>Media is also developing something called truth predict which would

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<v Speaker 1>move the company into prediction markets. So what's the year

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<v Speaker 1>behind truth predicting? How would it work?

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<v Speaker 2>I think that's service if I'm not mistaken, it's been

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<v Speaker 2>scaled back, so it would have been pretty similar to

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<v Speaker 2>the way like some of these leading prediction markets platforms

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<v Speaker 2>like you know, Polymarket and Calci, these new age sort

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<v Speaker 2>of exchanges where people can bet on real world events,

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<v Speaker 2>which could be like either a sporting event or a

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<v Speaker 2>political event, or the weather. So you can create like

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<v Speaker 2>a yes or no contract based on what event you're

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<v Speaker 2>betting on. And they've really come up over the past

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<v Speaker 2>couple of years, especially dating back to the twenty twenty

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<v Speaker 2>four presidential election, which truly was like a turning point

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<v Speaker 2>for the industry.

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<v Speaker 1>So if you bet on anything, including the weather, you

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<v Speaker 1>know obviously also bet on government actions as well.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, you have seen a number of examples of a

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<v Speaker 2>series of well time pets ahead of important policy announcements,

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<v Speaker 2>especially over the past twelve months.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up the suspiciously well timed bets of what the

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<v Speaker 1>president will do next. Aban tell me more about these

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<v Speaker 1>markets being bet on wars, political decisions and what the

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<v Speaker 1>president is going to do next, which would have been

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<v Speaker 1>unthinkable a couple of years ago. Tell me more about

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<v Speaker 1>how we've arrived at this situation.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, so you need to Daniel wind the clocks back

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<v Speaker 2>a little bit and go back to twenty twenty four,

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<v Speaker 2>especially during the presidential election. It sort of filmed the

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<v Speaker 2>whole industry into like a mainstream phenomenon. Like previously, this

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<v Speaker 2>industry was at the fringes pretty much like it was

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<v Speaker 2>never anywhere close to the mainstream, and there were world

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<v Speaker 2>like regulations that had been sort of developed to sort

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<v Speaker 2>of govern prediction markets. But the presidential election really sort

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<v Speaker 2>of changed that because back then a lot of the

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<v Speaker 2>traditional sort of polling companies they sort of got a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of outcomes wrong, whereas if you were a user

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<v Speaker 2>on Calci or Body Market, like, the majority of the

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<v Speaker 2>polls actually managed to get it right. They all along

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<v Speaker 2>predicted that Donald Trump would win by a landslide, and

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<v Speaker 2>that's pretty much what happens. And then you know, once

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<v Speaker 2>the Trump administration came into power, the industry also benefited

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<v Speaker 2>from easier regulations, like a lighter touch regulatory environment, which

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<v Speaker 2>allowed these platforms to grow even further. Just to give

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<v Speaker 2>you an idea, like Body Market and Calci, I think

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<v Speaker 2>they were both valued at I think somewhere less than

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<v Speaker 2>two billion before twenty twenty five, and now Calci is

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<v Speaker 2>in talks to raise like a fresh round of funding

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<v Speaker 2>at forty billion, So wrap your head around that, like

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<v Speaker 2>from two billion to forty billion in like eighteen months.

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<v Speaker 2>And body Market similarly there I think it talks to

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<v Speaker 2>raise like fresh capital around twenty pillion. So this industry

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<v Speaker 2>has just benefited like immensely from that breakout moment in

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<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty four, and also like an easier regulatory environment,

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<v Speaker 2>which has been a big tail wind.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, there's been a lot of reporting a rand

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<v Speaker 1>suspiciously well timed bets on US government actions. In particular,

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<v Speaker 1>what have you noticed about the timing of some of

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<v Speaker 1>these bets and some of these decisions.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, good question. More than one hundred and fifty wallets

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<v Speaker 2>on polymarket may have traded on inside US military information,

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<v Speaker 2>and it further sort of raises questions and concerns that

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<v Speaker 2>the market could basically broadcast signals which can be exploited

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<v Speaker 2>by foreigner adversaries. So that soldier who was charged back

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<v Speaker 2>in April for using classifying information to bet on the

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<v Speaker 2>removal of former ve President Nicholas Maduro, that.

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<v Speaker 4>A Special Forces soldier has been charged for making more

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<v Speaker 4>than four hundred THO dollars by betting on whether or

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<v Speaker 4>not Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro would be removed from office.

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<v Speaker 4>And here's the thing. According to the indictment, the officer

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<v Speaker 4>participated in the planning and execution of the operation.

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<v Speaker 2>And back in March, just before Trump announced the strikes

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<v Speaker 2>on Iran, like, there were a series of well tiked

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<v Speaker 2>bets that were placed on some of these big exchanges.

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<v Speaker 2>A number of punters have reportedly made about a million

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<v Speaker 2>US dollars by correctly predicting when the United States would

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<v Speaker 2>strike a run at the weekend. They were placed precisely

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<v Speaker 2>a few minutes before the policy announcement from Trump, which

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<v Speaker 2>means that obviously some insiders profited from early access to

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<v Speaker 2>information from Trump Center.

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<v Speaker 5>Circle six accounts in particular correctly predicted the timing of

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<v Speaker 5>the strikes and made about a million dollars from those bets. Now,

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<v Speaker 5>these were all accounts which were funded, generally speaking, the

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<v Speaker 5>twenty four hours leading.

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<v Speaker 2>Up to the strikes. And there's this former congressman called

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<v Speaker 2>George Santos, Like he had publicly posted about attending the

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<v Speaker 2>State of the Union address.

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<v Speaker 4>I'm going to be there for the State of the

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<v Speaker 4>Union in the gallery, guys.

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<v Speaker 1>Just chill.

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<v Speaker 2>Around the same time, Santos police bets against his own

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<v Speaker 2>appearance on calci and then Galciem eventually detected those traits

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<v Speaker 2>and flagged them as potentially suspicious and froze's account and

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<v Speaker 2>alerted the CFTC and the Dog Justice Department is reportedly

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<v Speaker 2>investigating George Santos, the former congressman, for insider trading.

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<v Speaker 6>Sources say the former Republican congressman placed bets on Calci

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<v Speaker 6>over whether he himself would be attending this year's State

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<v Speaker 6>of the Union.

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<v Speaker 2>So yes, Santos did bet on his own appearance at

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<v Speaker 2>the State of the Union address.

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<v Speaker 1>When it comes to when started trading. Even Donald Trump's

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<v Speaker 1>iron teleprompt operator has been under investigation over bets on

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<v Speaker 1>what Trump would say.

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<v Speaker 6>How teleprompter operator allegedly used inside information to make more

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<v Speaker 6>than one hundred thousand dollars betting on the president's speeches.

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<v Speaker 6>The White House saying he's now on administrative leave.

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<v Speaker 1>Isn't that indication of how easily these markets can be exploited.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it goes to the point that we were just

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<v Speaker 2>discussing Daniel, like the guardrails that they put up, like Calci,

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<v Speaker 2>Bollymarket and others have put up. It's just started enough,

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<v Speaker 2>like things are still falling through the cracks. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>if you're a lawmaker, or if you're in any way

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<v Speaker 2>affiliated to any sort of agency in DC, or you're

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<v Speaker 2>connected to political circles in any way, or if you're

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<v Speaker 2>like an executive at a high ranking company, Like basically,

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<v Speaker 2>anyone who's in a position to gain access to privileged

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<v Speaker 2>information which is not yet public should be banned from

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<v Speaker 2>creating accounts on these platforms. I mean, that's what a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of critics have argued. But so far people are

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<v Speaker 2>still getting around the system.

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<v Speaker 1>So at a band, when you can leaveuly bet on anything,

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<v Speaker 1>where does this end? Because it's already pretty dystopian. Some

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<v Speaker 1>of the stuff you can bet on now is kind

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<v Speaker 1>of like beyond what we would have thought of, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>even sort of months ago. How much worse can it get?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I think only time will tell. Daniel Calgy and

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<v Speaker 2>Body Market recently updated their rules to prevent users from

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<v Speaker 2>creating certain types of contracts like for example, both platforms

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<v Speaker 2>I think they band specific categories of bets which were

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<v Speaker 2>sort of regarded as too violent or harmful or which

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<v Speaker 2>could potentially involve insider manipulation, including like contracts on wars

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<v Speaker 2>death things like political assassinations, nuclear conflicts, kidnapping, and missile strikes.

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<v Speaker 2>So both platforms I think currently they prohibit individuals from

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<v Speaker 2>betting on events that they can also directly influence. But

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<v Speaker 2>there is this fight that is already brewing between like

0:13:58.080 --> 0:14:02.360
<v Speaker 2>these new prediction markets platforms and traditional derivatives exchanges like

0:14:03.160 --> 0:14:07.199
<v Speaker 2>the CME and others. So like, I suspect that at

0:14:07.200 --> 0:14:10.120
<v Speaker 2>some point the outcome of this debate will be sort

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<v Speaker 2>of decided by the higher codes, like by the Supreme

0:14:12.480 --> 0:14:15.880
<v Speaker 2>Court potentially, and then you're probably going to see more

0:14:15.920 --> 0:14:20.480
<v Speaker 2>concrete rules around the industry, and regulators are also trying

0:14:20.520 --> 0:14:24.520
<v Speaker 2>to sort of understand like how you can classify like

0:14:24.560 --> 0:14:28.960
<v Speaker 2>a typical events contract, whether that constitutes gambling, and whether

0:14:29.040 --> 0:14:33.480
<v Speaker 2>that needs to be regulated by state gambling regulators instead

0:14:33.520 --> 0:14:37.800
<v Speaker 2>of the CFTC over here, which currently regulates platforms like

0:14:37.880 --> 0:14:42.000
<v Speaker 2>CALCRE and polymarket. But as of now, it's still evolving.

0:14:42.280 --> 0:14:44.320
<v Speaker 2>Let's see where things shake out in a couple of years.

0:14:45.040 --> 0:14:47.480
<v Speaker 1>And in the meantime, people could betting on this podcast

0:14:47.520 --> 0:14:50.360
<v Speaker 1>right now, couldn't they? In the band pretty much and

0:14:50.440 --> 0:14:52.240
<v Speaker 1>a band, Thank you so much for your time.

0:14:52.280 --> 0:15:00.000
<v Speaker 2>Thanks so much for having me, Daniel pleasure talking to you.

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<v Speaker 1>Also in the news along those first seal has become

0:15:11.440 --> 0:15:13.640
<v Speaker 1>the first mammal to die of H five bird flu

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<v Speaker 1>on the Australian mainland. The seal was found at Beechport

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<v Speaker 1>in South Australia. It comes amid an escalation in the outbreak,

0:15:20.360 --> 0:15:23.680
<v Speaker 1>which has seen three mass mortality events involving more than

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<v Speaker 1>one thousand greater crested turns, and it's believed an eighteen

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<v Speaker 1>year old solo hiker found dead last week at Natai

0:15:31.040 --> 0:15:34.000
<v Speaker 1>National Park in New South Wales may have fallen after

0:15:34.040 --> 0:15:37.120
<v Speaker 1>detouring off the main track. The family of Lily Hooper

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<v Speaker 1>have paid tribute to the teenager as an inspiration, saying

0:15:40.160 --> 0:15:42.880
<v Speaker 1>they hope people will be more cautious hiking after her death.

0:15:43.440 --> 0:15:46.760
<v Speaker 1>Police last week were forced to apologize after mistakenly telling

0:15:46.800 --> 0:15:50.560
<v Speaker 1>the family she'd been found alive. I'm Daniel James. Thanks

0:15:50.560 --> 0:15:53.760
<v Speaker 1>again for listening to seven AM. We'll be back tomorrow.

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<v Speaker 6>All on one