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Speaker 1: The Banking Regulator says it's worried about the outlook for

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Speaker 1: home borrowers. Hospitality businesses are failing at the fastest pace

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Speaker 1: ever and Deadpool and Wolverine's record opening three days selling

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Speaker 1: four hundred and thirty eight million US dollars worth of tickets.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed. Daily business news for people

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Speaker 1: who make their own decisions. It is Tuesday, the thirtieth

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Speaker 1: of July twenty twenty four. Are Michael Thompson and Good Morning,

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Speaker 1: Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael, Sean.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning. The Banking Regulator remains worried

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Speaker 1: about the outlook for people repaying their home loans, telling

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Speaker 1: lenders like the Big four banks to maintain a three

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Speaker 1: percentage point serviceability buffer.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. So that's the amount above the advertised rate that

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Speaker 2: new borrowers must be able to afford to repay. So

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Speaker 2: if someone takes out a home liun on a seven

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Speaker 2: percent interest rate, the bank needs to go in. It

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Speaker 2: takes into account the three percentage points serviceability buffer, and

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Speaker 2: it means the banks need to make sure that the

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Speaker 2: borrower can repay a ten percent loan. It's a lot

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Speaker 2: of money. The APPRA said in reaching its decision to

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Speaker 2: maintain the relatively high buffer, it took into account the

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Speaker 2: uncertained interest rate and economic outlook, with high levels of

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Speaker 2: household debt and inflation still above the Reserve Bank of

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Speaker 2: Australia's target range, as well as ongoing geer political instability.

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Speaker 2: Balancing these risks, APRE said was the quality of new

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Speaker 2: housing lending remains sound and rears. Rates on mortgages and

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Speaker 2: business loans continue to rise only slowly, and they're still

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Speaker 2: actually below COVID peaks. The Australian Prudential and Regulation Authority

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Speaker 2: also said it credit growth for homes is now below

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Speaker 2: the long term average, while business credit is above historical norms.

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Speaker 1: Short of three percentage points too much, given that that

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Speaker 1: interest rates aren't expected to rise much more. If they

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Speaker 1: do rise, it's not going to be a huge amount.

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Speaker 1: Is that going to be too much?

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Speaker 2: Perhaps it does make it harder for people to get

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Speaker 2: a home own, particularly on lawer incomes, and given the

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Speaker 2: interest rate cycles turning as you mentioned, it does seem

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Speaker 2: to make a lot less sense now than perhaps a

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Speaker 2: couple of years ago when rates were very low, Like

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Speaker 2: I locked in a rate at two point two nine

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Speaker 2: percent three percent buffer. They said, hey, Sean, can you

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Speaker 2: pay five point two nine percent, which was fine if

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Speaker 2: I locked in now it's seven percent? Can you pay

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Speaker 2: ten percent? It just seems like there's a really big

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Speaker 2: penalty involved. Having said that, if the economy goes into recession,

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Speaker 2: then lower income households could suffer most Certainly, these title

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Speaker 2: credit standards could help slow the housing market. Price growth

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Speaker 2: is definitely slowing, and we'll find out more about that

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Speaker 2: at the end of the week when the full month

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Speaker 2: of July data comes out. But auction clurence rates remained

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Speaker 2: pretty good over the weekend. The preliminary clear and straight

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Speaker 2: nationally was up one percentage point to seventy two point

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Speaker 2: two percent. Sydney led the way there. Actually, Adelaide led

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Speaker 2: the way it always does. It had like an eighty

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Speaker 2: five percent clearance rate, but otherwise it was Sydney. We'll

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Speaker 2: know more about prospects for the housing market and whether

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Speaker 2: the reg has been too cautious in its mortgage serviceability

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Speaker 2: buffer probably after tomorrow's inflation data is released. If that's

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Speaker 2: a high number, then maybe it does make sense to

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Speaker 2: keep that buffer at three percentage points. If not, you

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Speaker 2: wonder why it's still so high.

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Speaker 1: Speaking of the inflation data tomorrow, Sean, Tomorrow is, of

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Speaker 1: course Wednesday, and that is the Fear and Greed newsletter day,

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Speaker 1: which usually comes out kind of ten thirty eleven or

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Speaker 1: so in the morning, but it'll be a little bit

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Speaker 1: delayed tomorrow morning to take into account the inflation Darty.

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Speaker 1: You can't get much fresher than that, can you.

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Speaker 2: No, No, I think it'll be out by about ten

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Speaker 2: to twelve. The data comes out eleven thirty, and I'll

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Speaker 2: certainly be having my say on what I reckon the

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Speaker 2: data means and what it means for interest rates, plus

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Speaker 2: plenty more.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, so you better get onto the mailing list for

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Speaker 1: that one. Head along to Fearandgreed dot com dot au

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Speaker 1: and pop your email addressing and when that newsletter hits

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Speaker 1: the hits the pot. The air press was the equivalent

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Speaker 1: of the inbox, yes, I suppose, So maybe head along

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Speaker 1: to Fearandgreed dot com dot Au and put your email

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Speaker 1: address in, and it means that you will get that newsletter.

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Speaker 1: It comes out every week and you will be one

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Speaker 1: of the first to receive it. And here's Sean's thoughts

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Speaker 1: on what the inflation data means for interest rates, so

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Speaker 1: don't miss out on that. How did local markets perform yesterday?

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Speaker 2: Sean S and PASX two hundred closed up zero point

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Speaker 2: nine percent to seven nine hundred and ninety points, with

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Speaker 2: tech stocks leading the way. I had plenty of friends.

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Speaker 2: Telcos and real estate investment trusts were also outperformers. Among

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Speaker 2: the large caps, the banks were mixed. National Australian Bank

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Speaker 2: and Westpac jump sharply, while A and Z film more

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Speaker 2: than one percent more on Commonwealth Bank in a moment.

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Speaker 2: Goodwin Group was up more than two percent as we're

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Speaker 2: a ristra cut leisure and weis tech global, while Aria

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Speaker 2: Group was three percent higher. The Star Entertainment Group had

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Speaker 2: a lot of friends yesterday or maybe one rich friend.

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Speaker 2: It was up fifteen percent. No corporate news there, just

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Speaker 2: to share price surge. Something going on in corporate news.

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Speaker 2: Vvyny you think Shell and Cole's expressed said first half

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Speaker 2: earnings will be up on a year ago, notwithstanding sector

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Speaker 2: wide softness in parts of its business. Fuel sales are

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Speaker 2: up nearly six percent, though convenience sales were lower. Its

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Speaker 2: share price jump more than four percent. One of the

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Speaker 2: best of the top two hundred yesterday the boss of

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Speaker 2: anib mark Fitzgiven he announced his intention to retire. Interesting

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Speaker 2: timing there, given that the health insurer is in the

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Speaker 2: midst of a battle with private hospital groups, and Vincent's

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Speaker 2: gold producer and Mealist Resources announced recorded gold production for

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Speaker 2: the June quarter, and worst the top two hundred yesterday

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Speaker 2: was Fletcher Building after announcing another earning's warning.

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Speaker 1: And what about international markets.

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Speaker 2: Well, the US Federal Reserve is this week expected to

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Speaker 2: set the stage for lower interest rates later in the year,

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Speaker 2: while the Federal Open Market Committee is expected to again

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Speaker 2: hold its benchmark interest rates steady at a twenty three

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Speaker 2: year high of five point two five to five point

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Speaker 2: five percent. The meeting on Wednesday is expected to set

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Speaker 2: up the case for a rate cut in September. Otherwise,

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Speaker 2: oily is steady, Brent's fetching just under eighty two US

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Speaker 2: dollars a barrel, goals training slightly below twenty four hundred

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Speaker 2: US dollars an ounce, and the Aussie dollar is buying

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Speaker 2: sixty five point six US scents.

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Speaker 1: Sewan, You've got a great chat coming up after the show.

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Speaker 1: You're speaking with Nile O'Sullivan, who is the Global Solutions

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Speaker 1: chief investment officer at Investment Giant Mercer.

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Speaker 2: I certainly Am. We have a great chat to Nil

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Speaker 2: about well, particularly about what the elections around the world

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Speaker 2: mean for markets and means for investing. The US is

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Speaker 2: obviously the big one there, but there have been plenty

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Speaker 2: of other elections around the world, particularly places with huge

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Speaker 2: populations Indonesia, India, Iran, the UK. So we talk about

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Speaker 2: all that and what the whole geopolitical atmosphere means for investors.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a great interviewer's coming up after the show

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Speaker 1: and coming out at midday today, Sean is the next

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Speaker 1: bonus episode of Ask Fear and Greed, where we take

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Speaker 1: a listener question and we'll do our best to answer

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Speaker 1: you really answer it. I just asked the question, and

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Speaker 1: sometimes I interject and add little value. But if you

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Speaker 1: have a question that you would like us to answer,

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Speaker 1: you can send it on through via the website Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed dot com dot au, or head along to

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Speaker 1: any of our social media platforms Instagram, Facebook, LinkedIn. Send

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Speaker 1: your question on through there and yours maybe the next

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Speaker 1: one that we answer.

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Speaker 2: Sewan.

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Speaker 1: We've still got a bit to get through. We'll be

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Speaker 1: back in a moment with the rest of the day's

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Speaker 1: business news Sean National Party frontbencher Barnaby Joyce is in

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Speaker 1: hot water for using a gun analogy to encourage voters

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Speaker 1: to get rid of Prime Minister Anthony Alberanezi. This is

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Speaker 1: not in the best taste no.

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Speaker 2: He made the comments at a protest against an offshore

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Speaker 2: wind zone in the Yellow Warra. He said, and I

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Speaker 2: quote the bullet you'll have is that little piece of

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Speaker 2: paper and it goes in the magazine called the voting box,

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Speaker 2: and it's coming up. Get ready to load that magazine.

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Speaker 2: Goodbye Chris as In Bowen, Goodbye Steven as In Jones,

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Speaker 2: goodbye albow End quote. After it emerged, mister Joyce apologized,

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Speaker 2: while his leader Peter Dutton said the apology was enough

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Speaker 2: and appropriate. Mister Albanezi was less forgiving, saying he should

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Speaker 2: be cut from the front bench, saying the comment was

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Speaker 2: completely unacceptable and the language has no place in any

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Speaker 2: part of Australians society.

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Speaker 1: The noise around Barnaby Joyce yesterday distracted attention from the

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Speaker 1: swearing in ceremony at Government House Now.

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Speaker 2: It was one of the first public official duties of

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Speaker 2: the new Governor General sam Mostyn Tony Burke was the

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Speaker 2: big winner from the reshuffle yesterday. He was sworn into

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Speaker 2: the Home Affairs, Immigration and Multicultural Affairs, cybersecurity and arts

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Speaker 2: portfolios plenty there, Murray, what got employment and workplace relations?

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Speaker 2: The Prime Minister moved Andrew Giles from Immigration and clara'

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Speaker 2: neil from Home Affairs yesterday he was forced to defend

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Speaker 2: their performances. And then along came Barnaby Joyce and that

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Speaker 2: all seemed to fade away and all the focus was

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Speaker 2: on what mister Joyce had said.

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Speaker 1: Now shaw I mention this one at the top of

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Speaker 1: the show. Hospitality businesses failed at the fastest rate on

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Speaker 1: record last financial year, as rising food and energy prices

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Speaker 1: and a pullback in consumer spending pushed cafes and restaurants

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Speaker 1: to the wall.

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Speaker 2: Cafes, restaurants and small retailers registered disproportionate growth in insolvency

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Speaker 2: appointments in the past year, according to report in The Australian,

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Speaker 2: as consumers were forced to pay more for essential items

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Speaker 2: and pulled back from discretionary purchasers. Figures from the Australian

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Speaker 2: Securities and Investments Commission that shows the number of collapses

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Speaker 2: in the sector jumped fifty percent to record one thousand,

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Speaker 2: six hundred and sixty seven. We are talking about the

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Speaker 2: last financial year ending June thirty Retail appointments served by

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Speaker 2: more than forty percent, and total insolvencies were up thirty

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Speaker 2: nine percent to just over eleven thousand. That eleven thousand

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Speaker 2: figure is a record, but it is much more like

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Speaker 2: normal pre COVID numbers a bit higher, but not sharply higher. Now,

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Speaker 2: thanks to all the government handouts during the pandemic, insultancies

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Speaker 2: fell sharply in the twenty twenty one fiscal years, just

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Speaker 2: over four thousand, less than five thousand the year after,

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Speaker 2: surprising given when we're in the middle of COVID. Asek

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Speaker 2: also said there were three point three eight million businesses

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Speaker 2: now registered in Australia. That's at the end of June.

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Speaker 2: Twelve years ago there was one point eight eight million,

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Speaker 2: So it means we're not quite double, but nearly doubled

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Speaker 2: in that twelve year period.

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Speaker 1: That's significant, isn't it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I was really surprised by how fast it's grown.

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Speaker 1: That is huge. Now shown this next one, I suppose

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Speaker 1: it's a bit of a worry, really Australians are still

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Speaker 1: dying at higher rates than before the pandemic, suggesting that

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Speaker 1: COVID nineteen's lingering effects maybe driving a sustained increase in

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Speaker 1: death and disease.

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Speaker 2: Excess mortality. The increase above the expected toll had the

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Speaker 2: pandemic not occurred, with five percent last year according to

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Speaker 2: the Actuaries Institute. Now the figure is significantly higher than

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Speaker 2: the one to two percent excess seen in the years

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Speaker 2: of strong seasonal influenza epidemics. According to a report in Bloomberg,

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Speaker 2: Australia has relatively high COVID vaccination rates, but still the

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Speaker 2: many survivors have for lingering ailments. For example, more than

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Speaker 2: four years on, hospitals are still experiencing an unexpected increase

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Speaker 2: in coronary artery disease. The local finding support growing evidence

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Speaker 2: that COVID nineteen worsened health across populations, especially the elderly

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Speaker 2: and marginalized racial and ethnic minority groups, resetting the baseline

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Speaker 2: for expected mortality.

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Speaker 1: Hey about this, John. Commonwealth Bank share price closed at

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Speaker 1: a record high of one hundred and thirty four dollars

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Speaker 1: ninety yesterday, really denying the naysayers who argue that the

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Speaker 1: country's largest company is overvalued.

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Speaker 2: Almost all the major bank analysts these are investment analysts

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Speaker 2: think Commonwealth Bank's share price is too high and they

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Speaker 2: expect a correction, but investors aren't listening, and it seems

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Speaker 2: Overseas investors in particular aren't listing, and the group's share

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Speaker 2: price just keeps rising. It's up around forty percent since

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Speaker 2: October last year and is the main reason the ASEX

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Speaker 2: two hundred has performed so well recently. On top of that, investors,

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Speaker 2: of course, have been receiving dividends, great return for people

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Speaker 2: who got in ack. In October a couple of weeks ago,

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Speaker 2: Commonwealth Bank became the largest company on the ASEX. It's

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Speaker 2: now about eleven billion dollars, bigger than BHP, the number

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Speaker 2: two company. It's nearly twice the size of the next

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Speaker 2: biggest bank, National Australia Bank.

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Speaker 1: Another hot company at the moment is James Hardy Industries.

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Speaker 2: Hardy's business is focused on the US construction industry, and

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Speaker 2: while the sector hasn't exactly boomed, expectations of lower interest

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Speaker 2: rates has helped the group's share price. It jumps three

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Speaker 2: percent yesterday, but in the last three weeks. Ever since

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Speaker 2: the US inflation figures came in slightly weaker than expected.

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Speaker 2: Hardy's share price is up twenty percent. Pretty phenomenal.

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Speaker 1: On the flip side, Sean Coogan dot com share price

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Speaker 1: fell one percent yesterday after its fourth quarter. Trading up

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Speaker 1: to it showed sliding traffic to the site.

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Speaker 2: We haven't really looked at Cogan for a while, of course,

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Speaker 2: it was the darling of the COVID period. Yesterday it

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Speaker 2: came out and said gross sales were down one and

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Speaker 2: a half percent, while earnings were higher during the fourth quarter,

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Speaker 2: the gym quarter. It said for the full year, which

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Speaker 2: it will announce next month, earnings will be around twenty

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Speaker 2: five million dollars from last year's loss of ten million dollars.

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Speaker 2: All that is good. As part of the update, the

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Speaker 2: retail i said its covid First loyalty program hit more

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Speaker 2: than half a million subscribers for the first time. While

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Speaker 2: profits are going in the right direction, investors are concerned

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Speaker 2: about the competition in this sector. There's plenty of it.

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Speaker 2: Think Amazon, eBay, Temu. Cogan's share price closed yesterday four

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Speaker 2: dollars thirty one, and mid COVID it was closer to

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Speaker 2: twenty five bucks he fell as low as three dollars,

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Speaker 2: then picked up, and earlier in the year, about March,

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Speaker 2: it was closer to high six's seven bucks. It's more

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Speaker 2: than half since then.

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Speaker 1: Turning to international news now Sean how this is quite incredible.

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Speaker 1: Democrat presidential nominee Krmla Harris has raised two hundred million

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Speaker 1: US dollars for her White House bid in less than

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Speaker 1: a week, which her campaign has called a quote record

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Speaker 1: shattering hall and about.

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Speaker 2: Two thirds of it came from first time donors. That's

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Speaker 2: what's pretty incredible about it. Now Harris needs to boost

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Speaker 2: fundraising to make up for the slowdown into donations to

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Speaker 2: President Joe Biden after his disastrous debate performance against Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump in late June. Harris raised more in a week

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Speaker 2: than Biden and Trump raised in the month of June combined. Incredible.

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Speaker 2: The Trump campaign and affiliated political action committees had raised

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Speaker 2: a total of about seven fifty seven million US dollars

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Speaker 2: by the end of last month, Joe Biden and affiliated

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Speaker 2: groups with seven forty six million US dollars neck and

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Speaker 2: neck there. In the week since Biden ditched his bid,

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Speaker 2: Harris has pretty much united the Democratic Party behind her,

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Speaker 2: gained some ground against Trump in opinion polls, though must

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Speaker 2: they have the weekend at a fundraise as she conceded

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Speaker 2: that Trump remains a favorite in the election, which is

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Speaker 2: now just one hundred days away.

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Speaker 1: Israel's Security Cabinet has authorized Prime Minister Benjamin and Yahu's

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Speaker 1: government to decide on the quote, manner, and timing of

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Speaker 1: a response to a rocket strike in the Israeli occupied

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Speaker 1: Golden Heights that killed twelve teenagers and children.

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Speaker 2: Israel and the United States blamed the hit on Lebanese

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Speaker 2: arms group Hesbalah, which actually denied it was responsible. It

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Speaker 2: was the deadliest hit on Israeli territory since Palestinian militant

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Speaker 2: group Hamas's October seven assault sparked the war in Gaza.

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Speaker 2: Israel has vowed retaliation against Hezbollah, and Israeli jets hit

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Speaker 2: targets in southern Lebanon during the day on Sunday. Prime

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Speaker 2: Minister Anthony Alberinezi yesterday said there's a risk of a

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Speaker 2: far more savage conflict starting in the Middle East following

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Speaker 2: the strike, saying you could see trouble brewing over the weekend.

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Speaker 2: Mister Albanzi issued another joint statement with Canadian Prime Minister

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Speaker 2: Justin Trudeau and New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxen calling

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Speaker 2: for a cease firing Gaza.

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Speaker 1: All right, a change of pace, Sewan. Something a bit

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Speaker 1: lighter to finish on Deadpool and Wolverine. The film not

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Speaker 1: two separate people. They are together.

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Speaker 2: They're not real, Michael, They're not real.

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Speaker 1: It's something, as I was saying, and I've put too

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Speaker 1: much emphasis on them, separate Deadpool and Wolverine. I'll say

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Speaker 1: it together. I'll say it quickly. Deadpool and Wolverine looks

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Speaker 1: to a reversed Marvel's box office slump, with the superhero

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Speaker 1: sequel expected to have made about two hundred million US

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Speaker 1: dollars over the weekend, about the same as Kamela Harris.

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Speaker 2: Well, that's right, and that's in the US. It was

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Speaker 2: an all time record for an R rated movie. Pretty incredible.

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Speaker 2: Marvel deployed two of its most popular characters following a

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Speaker 2: couple of relative duds, and it's expected that Deadpool and

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Speaker 2: Wolverine collected another two hundred and thirty eight million US

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Speaker 2: dollars overseas. That means about four hundred and thirty eight

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Speaker 2: million US dollars over three days. Not bad. The movie

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Speaker 2: itself costs about three hundred and twenty million US dollars,

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Speaker 2: nice after already. Of course, it stars Hugh Jackman, Australia's

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Speaker 2: Hugh Jackman. Two years ago, Marvel's Doctor Strange in the

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Speaker 2: Multiverse of Madness made about the same amount on weekend one.

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Speaker 2: Eventually it made about a billion dollars in ticket revenue. Now,

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Speaker 2: having said all that, I had never even heard of

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Speaker 2: Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. But clearly Marvel isn't.

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Speaker 2: I'm the target audience for Marvel, but it made a

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Speaker 2: billion dollars. It reckons that Deadpool and Wolverine it's on

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Speaker 2: track to make something similar. Have you seen it?

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Speaker 1: No, I haven't. Have you seen the two previous Deadpool movies?

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Speaker 2: No? Have you?

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Speaker 1: Yes? Yes, very good. You clearly are not the target

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Speaker 1: audience at all. Have you seen any of the.

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Speaker 2: Marvel movie No, no, I haven't. Everyone that mean, my

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Speaker 2: household kids and that just think I'm ridiculous. I mean

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Speaker 2: I've never seen a Harry Potter movie either. That I

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Speaker 2: got to tell you. Not a movie goer. It's certainly

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Speaker 2: not a Marvel comic moviegoer. But everyone else in my

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Speaker 2: house house.

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Speaker 1: I just every time you say these things, I just

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Speaker 1: I make a note in a list of things that

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Speaker 1: I call things I'm surprised to learn about Sean Almer.

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Speaker 1: And on that list is the fact that you don't

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Speaker 1: like hot Chips, which makes you un Australian. And now

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Speaker 1: you don't like movies in general. And you've never seen

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Speaker 1: Harry Potter. Have you at least read Harry Potter?

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Speaker 2: Oh? Maybe I think I read the first book and

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Speaker 2: it's just not The Hobbit. So I mean, again, this

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Speaker 2: is generational thing, probably, but you know, for me, the

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Speaker 2: Hobbit and the trilogy was sort of the great fantasy

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Speaker 2: book for my generation.

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Speaker 1: I honestly don't know what to say. I was going

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Speaker 1: to ask you about the fact that this was an

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Speaker 1: all time record for Deadpool and Wolverine, an all time

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Speaker 1: record for an R rated movie, because don't you kind

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Speaker 1: of assume as soon as you I know, it's R

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Speaker 1: rated bit for violence and stuff, and that's a US

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Speaker 1: R rating. As soon as you hear R rated movie,

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Speaker 1: don't you automatically think something else?

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Speaker 2: Not anymore? Maybe I did when I was growing up

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Speaker 2: because R RA it was whoa yeah, sneak in?

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Speaker 1: Do you see that something else all together, and we

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Speaker 1: got on like two hundred million dollars out of an

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Speaker 1: E RANDD movie, crist Crises.

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Speaker 2: There's a word we need to bring back.

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Speaker 1: It's getting hot in here all right. Up next, Sean

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Speaker 1: is the Fear and Greed Daily Interview. Nial O'Sullivan from

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Speaker 1: Mercer is your guest today.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we talk about the geopolitical atmosphere at the moment,

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Speaker 2: particularly with all these elections going on in populous nations

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Speaker 2: to be going of course later in the year, being

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Speaker 2: the US election, and what that means for investors. Fascinating chat.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it certainly is. It is coming up next to

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Speaker 1: the Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or

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Speaker 1: at Fearangreed dot com today you which is where you

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00:19:44,280 --> 00:19:46,880
Speaker 1: can sign up for our free weekly newsletter out tomorrow

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Speaker 1: and keep an eye on your playlist around midday today

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Speaker 1: for the next episode, the bonus episode of Ask Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed.

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Speaker 2: Thank you, Sean, Thank you Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Tuesday, the thirtieth of July twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join online

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Speaker 1: on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. By Michael Thompson

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Speaker 1: and that was peer and greed. Have a great day.

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Speaker 1: M