Speaker 1: From the United States. This is Paul Murray, Live geta Australia.
Speaker 2: Welcome to Washington, DC, behind us the capital, and today
Speaker 2: is the day when the United States will make a
Speaker 2: decision about what step it takes into the future. An
Speaker 2: extraordinary moment in time that we are all witnessing. And
Speaker 2: it's the privilege of my career to be able to
Speaker 2: sit here in Washington and take you through the start
Speaker 2: of what is going to be a mega day. History
Speaker 2: will be made in either direction here Donald Trump, who
Speaker 2: four years ago was.
Speaker 1: Swept away from the presidency.
Speaker 2: The assumption after the events of January sixth was that
Speaker 2: he would have no chance back in mainstream politics. He
Speaker 2: of course made his way and fought his way all
Speaker 2: the way back to the nomination, a nomination that now
Speaker 2: sees him on the precipice of returning to the presidency.
Speaker 1: This would be the greatest comeback.
Speaker 2: Of the twenty first century politically, and one of the
Speaker 2: greatest in American political history. On the other side, of course,
Speaker 2: is Kamala Harris, the sitting Vice president, a person who
Speaker 2: four months ago was trying to get somebody else elected
Speaker 2: to the presidency. If she wins, she will of course
Speaker 2: be the first female ever to lead the free world.
Speaker 2: Either way, history happens, America makes its choice, the world
Speaker 2: watches on, and we have got one heck of a
Speaker 2: show for you.
Speaker 1: Tonight.
Speaker 2: Rallies took place after midnight. It is just about five
Speaker 2: o'clock in the morning. It is a lot colder in
Speaker 2: Washington than it was in Dallas. But they were getting
Speaker 2: ready all the way in the height before game day
Speaker 2: and then into game day. This was their final pitch
Speaker 2: after midnight, after the clock had struck and it was
Speaker 2: officially election day. First, Donald Trump, are you better off
Speaker 2: now than you were four years ago?
Speaker 3: Because over the past four years, Americans have suffered one
Speaker 3: catastrophic failure, betrayal and humiliation after another.
Speaker 2: He was joined on stage by our friend Megan Kelly,
Speaker 2: who has said that the Trump campaign, particularly after that
Speaker 2: Madison Square Garden event, was frankly too broish. They weren't
Speaker 2: reaching out to women. We'll talk to her again later
Speaker 2: in the week when the results become clearer, but Meghan
Speaker 2: decided it was time to take the stage to make
Speaker 2: it clear that there is a path for women to
Speaker 2: vote for Donald Trump again as president.
Speaker 4: I do want to tell you the main reasons. I
Speaker 4: am voting for Donald Trump. Number one immigration. He mentioned it,
Speaker 4: and people like Leake and Raley. I'll be thinking about
Speaker 4: her tomorrow all day. Twenty two years old, killed in Georgia,
Speaker 4: a young nursing student by an illegal. I'll be thinking
Speaker 4: about Joscelyn Nungari, twelve years old in Texas, murdered by
Speaker 4: two Venezuelan illegals. President Trump closed the border. Kamala Harris
Speaker 4: opened it by choice. It wasn't accidental. She said it
Speaker 4: would be humane. That's what she and her boss believed.
Speaker 4: Tell it to Lake and Riley's face. There was nothing
Speaker 4: human about it. He closed it, they opened it. It
Speaker 4: was an intentional choice, and there's no reason not to
Speaker 4: believe they won't do it again.
Speaker 2: I'd hate to pretend that I know what's going on
Speaker 2: in anyone else's head, But do you think Donald Trump's
Speaker 2: going Why wasn't she.
Speaker 1: My vice presidential candidate.
Speaker 2: She was phenomenal on the stage. We know how great
Speaker 2: she uses a broadcast. I tell you what, she's got
Speaker 2: a future in politics if she wants it.
Speaker 1: The great.
Speaker 2: Megan McCain part of the final rally of Donald Trump
Speaker 2: for Kamala Harris.
Speaker 1: She had multiple rallies, she was late.
Speaker 2: Getting to start to the main one, which of course
Speaker 2: had celebrities like Lady Gaga and all the rest of it.
Speaker 2: This was her final pitch before grand final day.
Speaker 5: Turn the page on a decade of politics that has
Speaker 5: been driven by fear and division. We are done with that.
Speaker 1: We're done, We're exhausted with it.
Speaker 2: Among the celebrities who were there was of course, the
Speaker 2: woman who sat down and helped her when it came
Speaker 2: to the Democratic National Convention, sat down and helped her
Speaker 2: when it came to a video town hall, and hopefully
Speaker 2: is able from her perspective, to be able to give
Speaker 2: her the same support that she was able to give
Speaker 2: Barack Obama during his historic run at the presidency. However,
Speaker 2: Oprah Winfrey, in my view, went way too far last night. Now, yes,
Speaker 2: selections always have consequences and the stakes are always high,
Speaker 2: but this is stupid.
Speaker 6: If we don't show up tomorrow, it is entirely possible
Speaker 6: that we will not have the opportunity to ever cast
Speaker 6: a ballot again.
Speaker 2: Seriously, seriously, you want to know why people end up
Speaker 2: either in some cases, storming the Capitol or if Trump
Speaker 2: wins today, riding in.
Speaker 1: The streets of DC.
Speaker 2: Literally, the local chemists are blocked up as if there
Speaker 2: was a hurricane about to run through here. That is
Speaker 2: because both sides of politics just turn it up to eleven.
Speaker 2: The media will only try to pretend that it's one side. Well,
Speaker 2: did you just see what was being said to the
Speaker 2: potential millions of people who may well be disappointed in
Speaker 2: either direction, but particularly that message the closing from the Democrats.
Speaker 2: They say, it's great when it comes to winning elections,
Speaker 2: but my goodness, if they end up losing this election,
Speaker 2: ceeding the idea that that's the end of literally voting
Speaker 2: in one of the great democracies, what utter garbage. Now,
Speaker 2: I'm not going to do the good news, bad news,
Speaker 2: all the rest of it. Let's get down to brass
Speaker 2: tacks here. How do they win? All right? What will
Speaker 2: you be looking for when you're watching the results here
Speaker 2: on sky News tomorrow? What will we take you through
Speaker 2: when it comes to later today?
Speaker 5: All right?
Speaker 2: This is how Trump wins. If your people vote in
Speaker 2: the election than did in twenty twenty, that's going to
Speaker 2: be good for him. Why because the assumption is that
Speaker 2: his supporters remained just as passionate as sixteen twenty and
Speaker 2: twenty four Biden, of course one, but was only able
Speaker 2: to get there on a massive extra surge of voters
Speaker 2: that came through the COVID situation. Also, Republicans have done
Speaker 2: a very good job of voting early, but they need
Speaker 2: to make sure that they can get even more people
Speaker 2: to vote today now, depending on the state, depending on
Speaker 2: the margin, running up the vote before election day can
Speaker 2: be really important. That's why previously when we see results
Speaker 2: come in from election day, they start to change when
Speaker 2: the early vote comes in. The early vote has been
Speaker 2: better for Republicans, So the assumption is that that will
Speaker 2: not be what he's going to be taking place.
Speaker 1: Instead, they'll have a leader and they'll be able to
Speaker 1: build on it.
Speaker 2: Also, if Donald Trump is able to increase even by
Speaker 2: just a couple of points his ethnic minority vote, well
Speaker 2: he would be able to start to surge towards winning
Speaker 2: this election. If particularly young black men and Hispanic voters
Speaker 2: who want legal immigration prioritized over illegal immigration, that's going
Speaker 2: to get him there. Now, he also has to crack
Speaker 2: one of the Blue Wall states. He has to get
Speaker 2: Pennsylvania or Michigan or Wisconsin. If he gets one of
Speaker 2: those and holds everything that's come to be expected that
Speaker 2: he's going to win, then he will win this election.
Speaker 1: How does Harris win the.
Speaker 2: Presidential election that plays out across the country and around
Speaker 2: the world today. She needs women, and she needs more
Speaker 2: women than Joe Biden got. She needs more women than
Speaker 2: men to back her in and particularly women of all
Speaker 2: different ages. There's a lot of focus on the pop
Speaker 2: stars and young women and women for whom abortion is
Speaker 2: a number one issue, but she also needs women over
Speaker 2: sixty five. Now the polls have shown that she does
Speaker 2: have quite a significant support amongst that group.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 2: Traditionally people over the age of fifty five they vote Republican,
Speaker 2: but in this case they may well be heading towards
Speaker 2: the Democrats. If they do, she will win. The cities,
Speaker 2: of course, have to swamp the vote that is in
Speaker 2: the regions. Put simply in population, there are more people
Speaker 2: that live in a city than live in the outer
Speaker 2: suburban or regional areas. The way that Biden one in
Speaker 2: twenty twenty was more people voting in the city than
Speaker 2: four years ago. But overall, as I said, if the
Speaker 2: vote is down, which is expected because no male and voile,
Speaker 2: no pandemic, well again that's going to be one of
Speaker 2: the worries for her.
Speaker 1: Now she has to win.
Speaker 2: North Carolina or Georgia or Arizona on top of the
Speaker 2: blue Wall to be able to put this thing away,
Speaker 2: and to put this.
Speaker 1: Thing away in the next twenty four hours.
Speaker 2: If it's all down to Pennsylvania and that really is
Speaker 2: her only path, then we are in four not just
Speaker 2: a long day, but potentially days of county. But if
Speaker 2: she can hold the blue Wall, if more women are
Speaker 2: going to vote than even four years ago, and the
Speaker 2: dynamics of the city versus the country, that's how she
Speaker 2: is going to win this election. Now, let's deal with
Speaker 2: the thing that I know plenty of people have sent
Speaker 2: me emails about, and people in my life just send
Speaker 2: me text Missussi about which is okay, Paul, Why is
Speaker 2: this so close?
Speaker 1: Why is this really fifty to fifty?
Speaker 2: Is this really sort of forty nine point nine to
Speaker 2: fifty point one?
Speaker 1: Yes? Why? Because of the polls.
Speaker 2: Now, as we've shown you the polling across the swing
Speaker 2: states seven swing states, five of them currently are trending
Speaker 2: towards Trump, two of them are trending towards Harris. Now
Speaker 2: that would mean that as I said, if he can
Speaker 2: win a Pennsylvania and she's not able to hold the
Speaker 2: Blue Wall, then he is going to win this election.
Speaker 2: If the polls are correct, the averages of the polls,
Speaker 2: and of course there are dozens and dozens and dozens
Speaker 2: of them, and that became the vote that discounted. Later today,
Speaker 2: Donald Trump will win the presidency eighty seven to two
Speaker 2: fifty one. Not my prediction, just telling you that is
Speaker 2: what the polls, if they are correct, are telling us
Speaker 2: is going to happen at this election. So, of course
Speaker 2: when it comes to the seven swing states, you need
Speaker 2: to also understand this that the seven swing states which
Speaker 2: are up for grabs will know what they are and
Speaker 2: what they will be.
Speaker 1: Well, of course, what you need.
Speaker 2: To understand is that while the electoral college might look
Speaker 2: like a blowout where somebody gets two ninety three hundred votes,
Speaker 2: the absolute reality of the situation is the margins by
Speaker 2: which people are winning these.
Speaker 1: States are very very thin. Let me explain that to
Speaker 1: you now.
Speaker 2: Joe Biden won Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania. He also won Georgia, Arizona,
Speaker 2: and Nevada. But have a look by the margins total
Speaker 2: number of votes now in Wisconsin, there were three million
Speaker 2: votes overall difference twenty thousand, Michigan five point four million, difference,
Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty four thousand, Pennsylvania almost seven million people,
Speaker 2: difference less than one hundred thousand. In North Carolina five
Speaker 2: point four million people were voting Trump on that state
Speaker 2: by seventy four thousand. So you see my point over
Speaker 2: and over again. We're literally millions of people will vote.
Speaker 2: But the difference between team Red and team Blue can
Speaker 2: be not just a football stadium, it can be even
Speaker 2: smaller than that.
Speaker 1: In particular areas.
Speaker 2: All right, we'll get back to America in a moment
Speaker 2: or two's time, including I'll give you an idea about
Speaker 2: exactly when in our coverage, which is of course well
Speaker 2: effectively starting right now, but of course picks up again
Speaker 2: in the.
Speaker 1: Morning with the first edition.
Speaker 2: It'll be here all day about when poles close and
Speaker 2: when you're going to start to see some results. But
Speaker 2: let's talk about the greatest country in the world, and
Speaker 2: of course that is ours and some of the other
Speaker 2: news that is around today now. Of course, today was
Speaker 2: Melbourne Cup day. Congratulations if you were somebody who backed
Speaker 2: the what's seventy eight to one favorite, well not favorite outsider,
Speaker 2: And of course it was a day of great drunkenness.
Speaker 1: It didn't start without me, did you.
Speaker 5: I started three days ago in your poon at Derby
Speaker 5: Day in Queensland, Queensland.
Speaker 1: At the top end. And you haven't stopped.
Speaker 5: I haven't stopped. I've had eight hours of sleep in
Speaker 5: about four days.
Speaker 1: But I must I must have missed the bus. You
Speaker 1: did miss the bus. But I'll tell you what.
Speaker 4: The bus doesn't stop until Sunday.
Speaker 1: We're going home on Sunday, but don't come for you.
Speaker 1: Guys got thongs, we got crops. How's that sound, mate?
Speaker 2: But the perhaps more significant information, rather than the people
Speaker 2: who own the winning Melbourne Cup horse, is that, of
Speaker 2: course interest rates no change. The pain continues swolve. Interest
Speaker 2: rate rises since how Beneasy became our prime Minister?
Speaker 1: Grimm Jim the treasurer.
Speaker 2: The pain continues. The media, well this was how they
Speaker 2: told the story.
Speaker 1: Today.
Speaker 7: The Reserve keeps interest rates on hold, the only safe bet.
Speaker 1: Of the day.
Speaker 2: Reserve Bank has left the cash rate unchanged, saying inflation
Speaker 2: is still too high to give borrowers any relief.
Speaker 3: The Reserve Bank has now left the cash rate at
Speaker 3: four point three five percent for a full year.
Speaker 1: So the pain continues.
Speaker 2: The banks tell us there's going to be no change
Speaker 2: until February, and of course that's in and around the
Speaker 2: time the Prime Minister would like to have an election
Speaker 2: and change the subject from upgrade Albow. New poll, by
Speaker 2: the way, showed lots of things today that all of
Speaker 2: the things that Olbo's done is what Australians don't like.
Speaker 2: About sixty percent of people don't like all different things
Speaker 2: when it comes to being an air grade upgrade Albo.
Speaker 2: They don't like the free upgrades, they don't like the
Speaker 2: chairman's club membership. Surprise, surprise. If he thinks that's the
Speaker 2: way he's going to win an election, good luck the ABC.
Speaker 2: Now what a coincidence that on Melbourne Cup Day, that
Speaker 2: was the day when finally the abasc news boss admitted
Speaker 2: what the Channel seven spotlight show exposed and sort of
Speaker 2: Zebrudai like detail, which was someone added extra shots to
Speaker 2: audio in a report that made horrific allegations against an
Speaker 2: Australian soldier, that of course being Heston Russell. Well, today
Speaker 2: they admitted they fiddled with this tape.
Speaker 7: We sincerely regret and apologize those editing errors in the
Speaker 7: video clips, including two members of the second Commando Regiment,
Speaker 7: and that's why we removed the video when it was
Speaker 7: brought to our attention.
Speaker 2: And unsurprisingly, despite the fact that this happened, no one's
Speaker 2: going to lose their job, No managers, nowhere else accountability
Speaker 2: of course, when you're on the left, it doesn't apply.
Speaker 2: Just like a Daniel Andrews when you end up getting
Speaker 2: a little gold medal, no doubt somebody will get Employee
Speaker 2: of the month.
Speaker 1: Can you believe nobody loses their job. That's pretty serious.
Speaker 2: Stuff anyway, well under those that are pushed and pushed
Speaker 2: hard for truth to finally come out, for it to
Speaker 2: happen on effectively the National public Holiday of Drunkenness. Pretty
Speaker 2: low stuff from the ABC. So one more thing about America.
Speaker 2: Here the poll closing times. So I'm going to do
Speaker 2: this in Australian eastern summer time. You can do your
Speaker 2: sums in Queensland or anywhere else around the country, but
Speaker 2: this is when you're going to start to see closings
Speaker 2: and then results.
Speaker 1: Georgia.
Speaker 2: It closes at eleven am North Carolina, eleven thirty am Pennsylvania,
Speaker 2: Michigan midday Arizona, Wisconsin at one pm, Nevada two pm
Speaker 2: this morning.
Speaker 1: The very latest from the book.
Speaker 2: Is is Trump sixty one percent to thirty eight percent
Speaker 2: chance of winning this thing? The statisticians, they say Harris
Speaker 2: fifty out of one hundred chances at winning compared to
Speaker 2: Trump's forty nine exactly the reverse this time again in
Speaker 2: favor of Harris with the Silver bulletin, despite the fact
Speaker 2: that when you actually look at their data, it shows
Speaker 2: that Trump is actually winning all of the significant states
Speaker 2: that he would need to. But that's how tight they are,
Speaker 2: all sort of covering their backside. And just to show
Speaker 2: how tight all of this is, there's a very small
Speaker 2: village that every four years we have to cover because
Speaker 2: it's the first place that votes, and it votes after midnight.
Speaker 2: Guess what tie Three votes for Harris, three votes for Trump.
Speaker 2: To work out whether Trump is going to win or not. Again,
Speaker 2: I talked about those changes about people who are traditionally
Speaker 2: not to vote Republican perfect example would be African American men.
Speaker 2: Now the way that many in the media have decided
Speaker 2: to spend some time to have a chat about what's
Speaker 2: going to happen with this, voters to go to your
Speaker 2: local barbershop, which is exactly what we did to have
Speaker 2: a chat to fellas about which way they're going to
Speaker 2: go today.
Speaker 8: I've believed for the first day we should give a
Speaker 8: fil a try. I believe America and the whole what
Speaker 8: needs change we.
Speaker 1: Drive from before? Now what happened? We came to zero.
Speaker 1: Trump is not coming for nothing. Where you're coming for
Speaker 1: a revenge? Who you're going to vote for? Trumple Harris? Trump?
Speaker 1: Oh why financialise? That was good? In the end, it
Speaker 1: all comes down to the economy. That come down to
Speaker 1: the e kind of Trumple Harris Harris. What do you
Speaker 1: like about Harris?
Speaker 6: I think she's twenty poor?
Speaker 1: Poor people.
Speaker 8: People say Trump don't people play say trumpet raises against
Speaker 8: black people.
Speaker 1: Don't believe he raised against black people.
Speaker 5: I believe he's just trying to make his country about
Speaker 5: a country.
Speaker 1: You know what I'm saying.
Speaker 2: We will all find out together watching on as part
Speaker 2: of a mega coverage here and everyone's sitting out of
Speaker 2: the park. If you want to keep up with the details,
Speaker 2: find us on YouTube or obviously go to sky News
Speaker 2: dot com, dot you or the details. The results will
Speaker 2: be there. That's your homepage today. Skynews dot com dot au.
Speaker 2: Ross Greenwood joins us now, of course from New York,
Speaker 2: where there is so many parts of this story that
Speaker 2: you are going to be playing out. The reaction to
Speaker 2: whatever the result will be will be fascinating. We saw
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty the cheering in the streets when it
Speaker 2: was Biden. We saw the booing in Timesquare when it
Speaker 2: was Trump. What a great place to be Ross. Thanks
Speaker 2: for getting up so early. I know it's probably even
Speaker 2: colder where you are than I am right now. But
Speaker 2: give us an idea of Game Day in New York.
Speaker 5: Well, I'll say what Game Day in New York is
Speaker 5: going to be really a terrific thing to watch because
Speaker 5: most of the polling events are in some of the
Speaker 5: most iconic spots in New York the Metropolitan Museum, for example,
Speaker 5: the New York Library, which is seen of Ghostbusters for example,
Speaker 5: if you've never been there. So some of the great
Speaker 5: buildings in New York are going to be the places
Speaker 5: where people turn out to vote on this day.
Speaker 1: So it's going to be a brilliant day out. And
Speaker 1: you know, I'm going to tell you that.
Speaker 5: You know, even though this is Democrat heartland, there's no
Speaker 5: doubt there's plenty at state, not only in the congressional
Speaker 5: races around here, but also there's other that votes that
Speaker 5: will take place through New York, which leaven be about state.
Speaker 5: Abortion rights are going to be up for grabs as well,
Speaker 5: So there's plenty at state for people to vote about.
Speaker 1: But as you say, it's interesting just.
Speaker 5: To note that the difference mean what the last national
Speaker 5: polls coming out are about right now swinging back towards
Speaker 5: Kamala Harris versus the bookies, which are actually right now
Speaker 5: swinging back towards Donald Trump, and they historically have been
Speaker 5: a better measure of who ultimately wins this presidential race.
Speaker 5: So you go to Polymarket you mentioned a little earlier,
Speaker 5: suggesting sixty one percent to Trump, thirty nine percent to Harris.
Speaker 1: But of course it's.
Speaker 5: When they break down the individual states to start to
Speaker 5: see just a little bit of a nuance suggesting that
Speaker 5: Trump will pick up many of those states, those swing
Speaker 5: states that you spoke about.
Speaker 1: And so that's the key.
Speaker 5: New York today is going to be a great place
Speaker 5: to get a real flavor of.
Speaker 1: What's going on. But I want to tell you another story.
Speaker 5: While I'm here, Paul, and that is an amazing sort
Speaker 5: of as you would have picked this up, and that
Speaker 5: is that migration is one of the absolute keys to
Speaker 5: this election. People in New York are not happy about
Speaker 5: the rate of migration coming into here. People who are
Speaker 5: basically flying across the borders eventually end up in big
Speaker 5: cities like New York. And so what's happened here is
Speaker 5: that the mayor Eric Adams has started to turn grand
Speaker 5: hotels that have been empty into basically shelters for migrants
Speaker 5: and refugees. One of those is the Roosevelt Hotel. It's
Speaker 5: hails the pete likes of Charlie Chaplin, Marilyn Monroe. You've
Speaker 5: had presidential races basically run their Republicans have base themselves
Speaker 5: there and now a migrant center and I'm going to
Speaker 5: see the people around there. We try to speak to
Speaker 5: the migrants. They broadly were warned off by the security
Speaker 5: guards not to talk to us, but have un lesson
Speaker 5: to some of the bystanders who came past when we
Speaker 5: ask them about whether they were happy that one of
Speaker 5: the grandest hotels near Grand Central Station has now been
Speaker 5: turned into a migrant refuge.
Speaker 4: We're all for immigrants, as long as they're added and
Speaker 4: a limited amount that we can afford.
Speaker 5: There was a good thing for New York and aren't
Speaker 5: probably not?
Speaker 1: Why not? What's your sense about this?
Speaker 5: I'man migrants obviously are coming into New York at a
Speaker 5: large rate at the moment.
Speaker 1: Just explain that's well.
Speaker 4: I think tomorrow is going to be really important in
Speaker 4: that process.
Speaker 1: All right, so we'll see what happens.
Speaker 9: And it's like, oh, you know, the n mbys not
Speaker 9: in my backyard.
Speaker 1: But I don't know, do you know when people suffering
Speaker 1: in your one? People starving? I'll see what Paul.
Speaker 5: I don't know whether you've picked this up either, but
Speaker 5: the number of people as we walk around the streets
Speaker 5: with our sky News microphone and stuff like that, they
Speaker 5: roll up and just tell us how much they like sky.
Speaker 1: News in Australia. That's the thing that's really.
Speaker 5: Got me about this.
Speaker 10: I thought nobody'd know who the hell we were on
Speaker 10: the streets, but it really has struck me that sky
Speaker 10: News in Australia actually resonates through our YouTube channel, through
Speaker 10: the ways in which people can get it there, and
Speaker 10: that people actually know who we are when we're walking.
Speaker 5: Around the streets. They know some of the people are there.
Speaker 5: So the funny thing is that the messages that we
Speaker 5: send out that it does get out in America, and
Speaker 5: of course they see this as being really you know,
Speaker 5: it's sort of credible information because they are absorbing so
Speaker 5: much of this as a part of this election campaign.
Speaker 2: Yeah, my Heath, there's so much data, so much color,
Speaker 2: and you know, from lots of different fun as well,
Speaker 2: particularly I think readers the ultimate star over here when
Speaker 2: it comes to left, he's losing it, and plenty of
Speaker 2: other stuff we do. So I dont quickly ask about
Speaker 2: the betting markets, right, people need to understand how much
Speaker 2: money is in that has been bet in this thing.
Speaker 2: I'm looking here.
Speaker 1: One point three billion dollars.
Speaker 2: Has been put on Donald Trump, slowly but surely, eight
Speaker 2: hundred and fifteen million dollars on Kamala Harris. But then
Speaker 2: there's that other betting market called the stock market. It's
Speaker 2: been going pretty well of recent months, pushed particularly with
Speaker 2: AI and the AI bubble. When we hear terms like
Speaker 2: the market has priced in an election result, what does
Speaker 2: that mean?
Speaker 5: Well, effectively, in this case, it's about the fact that
Speaker 5: the market had priced in a.
Speaker 1: Donald Trump victory.
Speaker 5: And so really there was a thing called a Trump trade,
Speaker 5: and what that meant was a whole bunch of stocks
Speaker 5: that might have done really well under Donald Trump, affecting
Speaker 5: people piled into the stocks. Now in the last few
Speaker 5: days there's just been a few wobbles in some of
Speaker 5: those is in particular that Iowa poll came out suggesting
Speaker 5: that Kamala Harris could surprisingly win Iowa. It's kind of
Speaker 5: flicked back the other way since then. So as a result,
Speaker 5: many of those stocks suddenly fell because the Trump trade
Speaker 5: wasn't working so well, and so really, in many ways,
Speaker 5: even the future of the economy. And this is what
Speaker 5: I pick up again with speaking with Americans, is that
Speaker 5: day since that this is such an important election for
Speaker 5: the future of its economy, for the future of the
Speaker 5: direction of the United States as a global power. And
Speaker 5: I think this is one of the keys where so
Speaker 5: many families indeed are going to be split down the middle.
Speaker 5: There could be people in the families voting for Kamala
Speaker 5: Harris on the other side, people in that family.
Speaker 1: Voting for Donald Trump.
Speaker 5: And this is where in many ways it's not just
Speaker 5: unions and left easm, you know, sort of right wingers
Speaker 5: on the other side. This has come down to the
Speaker 5: fundamental view of the future of America. And so that
Speaker 5: goes to the stock market, that goes to the investment markets.
Speaker 5: And you even talked about, say the betting markets and
Speaker 5: the big money there. Well, one guy who is in
Speaker 5: Europe put thirty million dollars into Donald Trump, big old trader,
Speaker 5: lots of money. And they investigated this guy to see
Speaker 5: whether he was actually trying to tip the odds in
Speaker 5: Donald Trump's favor, to try and see whether that could influence.
Speaker 1: The way in which people vote.
Speaker 5: They were investigating even those things as a part of
Speaker 5: this whole election campaign. So as I say, it's really narrow,
Speaker 5: it's pretty fine. And of course we're going to be
Speaker 5: right across the streets today and round America. It's going
Speaker 5: to be a great day out just to see Americans
Speaker 5: go to the poles today.
Speaker 1: All right, do me a favor, Go to your nearest diner.
Speaker 2: Get some French toast with extra sausage and bacon for
Speaker 2: me my friend. Wash it down with the coke and
Speaker 2: feel American on the inside.
Speaker 1: Talk to you soon, Ross.
Speaker 2: Good only thanks lot, the very healthy Ross Greenwood, who
Speaker 2: would no doubt not follow that advice.
Speaker 1: At all the food.
Speaker 2: He's so bad, but it's so amazing orange cheese.
Speaker 1: An international expls in and of itself. All right, quick
Speaker 1: breakback with Moore.
Speaker 2: We'll have a chat to our local panel about big
Speaker 2: news around Australia today, including to the Reserve Banker, the
Speaker 2: right or the wrong thing when it came to interest rates,
Speaker 2: and some more details about upgrade Alvo you need to hear.
Speaker 2: Then two of the most plugged in detail DC insiders.
Speaker 2: They know the numbers, they know the Trump campaign and
Speaker 2: they will join us live in a sect here on
Speaker 2: Paul Murray Life from Washington on.
Speaker 1: Election Day in the United States.
Speaker 2: Almost half past five in the morning where we are
Speaker 2: right now. I hope you're having a great time watching
Speaker 2: us at home. Thank you for all the feedback, thank
Speaker 2: you for all the support for all of our teams.
Speaker 2: News team doing a great job and it's so awesome
Speaker 2: to be doing this in primetime four year as well.
Speaker 2: Paulittsgudis dot com that I used the way to stay
Speaker 2: in touch.
Speaker 1: All right, He's always here to help.
Speaker 2: Stephen Conroy on a Wednesday, nervously hoping that Team Blue
Speaker 2: is going to magically sweep its way towards power, cheering
Speaker 2: on a history as he will have just a little
Speaker 2: tear hopefully in a few hours time. Henry Pike, of
Speaker 2: course LMPMP. Well, I'm assuming he's a trump Man here,
Speaker 2: but we will all find out together in the next
Speaker 2: little while.
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk.
Speaker 2: About Australia and what happened today. Reserve Bank it ain't
Speaker 2: going to move all of the big four banks. They
Speaker 2: say they're not going to be moving on interest rates
Speaker 2: until probably February. Stephen, You've had plenty to say over
Speaker 2: the time about the RBA. What about their decision to
Speaker 2: do nothing today?
Speaker 11: Look, seriously, if you have a read of what they
Speaker 11: actually said, they've done a revision and it's a revision
Speaker 11: that says GDP is going to be lower than we forecast,
Speaker 11: inflation is going to be with forecast, unemployment's going to
Speaker 11: be higher than we forecast. And then you start to
Speaker 11: look at this absurd concept that they have invented called
Speaker 11: the trim demean which isn't part of their charter. I mean,
Speaker 11: there's one economist today saying they're actually in breach of
Speaker 11: the chart. Trimmed demeans not in their charter. And then
Speaker 11: when you understand that twenty percent of the CPI components
Speaker 11: are things like Paul, you'd understand this, like booze and cigarettes.
Speaker 11: So as their forecast to come down because the inflation
Speaker 11: comes down, the indexation of that comes down, twenty percent
Speaker 11: of the prices that are in the basket of goods
Speaker 11: will come down next year, and they just go, doesn't matter,
Speaker 11: doesn't count. We're doing nothing. There's a bunch of clowns
Speaker 11: running the Reserve Bank. Really should resign because they do
Speaker 11: not know what they're talking about when it comes to
Speaker 11: the actual measure, and they're just.
Speaker 1: A final kicker.
Speaker 11: We're going to be data driven, which means they're going
Speaker 11: to wait the extra months to see the actual DOTUT
Speaker 11: because they've been forecasting so badly for the last few
Speaker 11: years now, wage grows barely hit four percent. It was
Speaker 11: going to be a wage price spiral. They just got
Speaker 11: it wrong, wrong, wrong, and they're too stupid and stubborn
Speaker 11: to admit their wrong and lower interest rates.
Speaker 1: Well, I like what you have to say.
Speaker 2: I think many of the wrong wrong, wrong also applies
Speaker 2: to Treasury, but we'll get to that another time. Here
Speaker 2: is the bosson the Reserve Bank, Michelle Bullock, saying nothing really.
Speaker 12: Today, public demand is offsetting a lot of weakness in
Speaker 12: the private sector side, so we still, with those circumstances,
Speaker 12: have inflation coming back to target in a reasonable way.
Speaker 12: My reading, when I speak privately to the Treasurer and
Speaker 12: when I hear him speak on television and radio, is
Speaker 12: that he's fully aware of the inflationary implications of his
Speaker 12: own policies.
Speaker 2: Henry wasn't the Prime Minister telling us on the weekend
Speaker 2: that the worst is behind us. The only problem is
Speaker 2: part of the worst is twelve interest rate rises.
Speaker 3: Absolutely, Paul, They certainly have left that bed out, and
Speaker 3: certainly we've got a year of really high inflation, and
Speaker 3: yes it is coming down a bit. But I think
Speaker 3: the Reserve Bank is quite right in relying on that
Speaker 3: trimmed inflation figure. I think that's the appropriate and the
Speaker 3: cautious way to do it, and I think the government
Speaker 3: still has a lot of work to do to try
Speaker 3: to get that figured down to the band that the
Speaker 3: RBA wants to see it at their warning today that
Speaker 3: it won't be until twenty twenty six that we could
Speaker 3: see that, and of course they're going to be cautious
Speaker 3: in lowering rates that's not going to occur before the
Speaker 3: election now, and I think the government's got to go
Speaker 3: back to the drawing board and go, right, what else
Speaker 3: can we do? How else can we sharpen the pencil?
Speaker 3: How else can we reduce inflationary spending to try to
Speaker 3: bring those rates down and give households a bit of relief.
Speaker 2: Now, there was an interesting bit of speculation daily Mail.
Speaker 2: I focused in on this today and it's actually part
Speaker 2: of the Kamala Harris conversation happening here, which is that
Speaker 2: taxing unrealized gains, we're put simply something that you own,
Speaker 2: like potentially things like stocks that they are technically worth
Speaker 2: more money, but you don't actually have access to it.
Speaker 2: And presumably this means your house may well be that
Speaker 2: next level of taxation that is coming away from this government, Henry.
Speaker 1: They would be.
Speaker 2: Stupid to do it. I could see what the political
Speaker 2: reaction would be instantly. But where does this come from?
Speaker 3: Well, we're already seeing this in government policy, Paul. We've
Speaker 3: already seen this in the new super taxes of the
Speaker 3: government's bringing in from won July next year. That's going
Speaker 3: to be a thirty percent increase on taxes for people
Speaker 3: over three million dollars in their super fund and that's
Speaker 3: all on unrealized gains. And this is of course a
Speaker 3: dangerous path to go down. We see it through land
Speaker 3: taxes at the state level, where it's the theoretical gain,
Speaker 3: the theoretical changes, not the cash that people have in
Speaker 3: their hand, and that's got real serious implications for people's
Speaker 3: cash flow. What this actually means for what holdings are
Speaker 3: going to have within there, within their super funds. I
Speaker 3: think it's a really dangerous path to go down. It
Speaker 3: might sound good for a Treasury official here in Canberra,
Speaker 3: but for those sitting at home without any increase in
Speaker 3: the real value, just in the theoretical value of their assets,
Speaker 3: means something completely different, Stephen.
Speaker 2: Often governments politicians can be accused of being small targets
Speaker 2: trying to be as bige as possible. If they do this,
Speaker 2: it will be the politics of the blood red kind.
Speaker 1: Wouldn't it.
Speaker 11: Look an apologist? Henry? I think I left Parliament before
Speaker 11: you came in. But you actually didn't answer Paul's question,
Speaker 11: which is where did this come from? I don't take
Speaker 11: the Daily Mail as a source of anything other than
Speaker 11: football news for the English EPL, so I'm not taking
Speaker 11: it as anybody in government has remotely.
Speaker 13: Associated come after yourselves with such a proposal. Peebe, I
Speaker 13: could come after me early wants. It would be, to
Speaker 13: use a phrase from Yes Minister, A very courageous government
Speaker 13: decided wanted a tax real life capital gains and I'm
Speaker 13: I'm you know Treasury might be having a discussion, but
Speaker 13: I will about even Jim Chalmers didn't say I authorized
Speaker 13: this one.
Speaker 2: Now, Stephen, I want to talk about whatever the four
Speaker 2: D CHSS is that the greatest Prime Minister of all
Speaker 2: time is playing here, right? I get you know politicians,
Speaker 2: when you're having a bad time, you want to change
Speaker 2: the subject. He has this sort of you know, years
Speaker 2: style rally. It's like, oh, I see what's happening over there?
Speaker 2: Can I do that too? And he decided to do
Speaker 2: so with Peter Melanowskis and people in South Australia. But
Speaker 2: the greatest political tactician of all time, Malcolm Turnbull, was
Speaker 2: a genius who took us through an eight week campaign.
Speaker 2: What does Albo think about what a four month campaign?
Speaker 1: Please?
Speaker 11: Well, I think people are reading in a little too much.
Speaker 11: I mean, I think the fact that you're now talking
Speaker 11: about this rather than upgrades is a measure of some
Speaker 11: success the government. We're desperately trying last week to ovid
Speaker 11: report through and now we're talking about a rally and
Speaker 11: whether the hall it was in or not was was
Speaker 11: appropriate rented. So I think tick one to a strategy
Speaker 11: of getting you happy to.
Speaker 1: Talk about about upgrades. If you want, you want to
Speaker 1: talk about upgrades, let's get well, let's talk about Penny
Speaker 1: Wong and a three and a bit million dollar house.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about Penny Wong and to the Bridget for life. Look,
Speaker 1: if you want to talk about it, Steve, I'm happy
Speaker 1: to do it.
Speaker 11: Bridget McKenzie's got plenty to talk about in the next
Speaker 11: few days with the fifteen nine upgrades that you forgot about.
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right now, Henry.
Speaker 2: The ABC they have now admitted that there was an
Speaker 2: alteration to the audio that made it seem like more
Speaker 2: shots were fired in a story which made a pretty
Speaker 2: gray valigation against Australian soldiers. The apology comes on Melbourne
Speaker 2: Cup Day. This is when the metaphorical trash is taken out,
Speaker 2: when you hope nobody notices. Now, okay, we get that
Speaker 2: that might be when it's scheduled. But what does it
Speaker 2: say that at that organization when something that grave happens,
Speaker 2: no one's going to get sacked.
Speaker 3: I was really concerned with what I saw today because
Speaker 3: I saw an apology. I saw them announce that they'd
Speaker 3: had an inquiry and that no one was to blame.
Speaker 3: But it just didn't pass the pub test. How could
Speaker 3: those sounds be added to a video by accident? It
Speaker 3: just doesn't make any sense. I want ABC to actually
Speaker 3: explain that to the Australian people in a way that
Speaker 3: absolves anyone of blame. To me, it just absolutely cannot
Speaker 3: make sense. There's no other explanation other than they were
Speaker 3: deliberately added to try to achieve an outcome. Until I
Speaker 3: hear an explanation otherwise, That's what I'm going to think,
Speaker 3: and that's what most of strains, I think, are going
Speaker 3: to believe gets done within their public broadcaster.
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is the boss of the other People's money
Speaker 2: news network.
Speaker 7: We sincerely regret and apologize those editing errors in the
Speaker 7: video clips, including to members of the Second Commando Regiment,
Speaker 7: and that's why we removed the video when it was
Speaker 7: brought to our attention.
Speaker 2: All Right, I can't let you go without talking about,
Speaker 2: of course, what is about to happen today, Stephen, You
Speaker 2: and I quite often we talk about the numbers and
Speaker 2: this and that and what's going to happen. We're in
Speaker 2: this very odd situation where most American elections.
Speaker 1: You would know going in. You know, we knew that
Speaker 1: Trump was going to lose last time.
Speaker 2: It was speculative in twenty sixteen, but you could be
Speaker 2: pretty confident if you're a Trump supporter in and around
Speaker 2: that election, and we know there's blowouts like you know,
Speaker 2: a Clinton Dole and a whole collection of others the
Speaker 2: fifty to fifty nature of it, But the book is
Speaker 2: a lot clearer in where they think it's going to go.
Speaker 2: I won't say what's the prediction, because I'm not going
Speaker 2: to put you into that, buine But do you really
Speaker 2: think this is fifty to fifty or do you think
Speaker 2: that even if they were able to win by ten
Speaker 2: thousand here in twenty thousand there, the electoral college ends
Speaker 2: up being the blowout and it's not a lineball.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 11: Look, I mean Biden won electoral college with a very
Speaker 11: narrow margin in a raft of the key states, haven't course,
Speaker 11: seventy thousand votes had been different in those key states,
Speaker 11: Trump would have had a second term. I mean, I
Speaker 11: look at that small booth that has been already voted
Speaker 11: and counted. The three votes all sort of said everything
Speaker 11: except for you. People have forgotten that Biden won at
Speaker 11: six in the last time. So that's that fifty percent
Speaker 11: swing to Trump. Paul, I think you'd be pretty excited
Speaker 11: by that result.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would be.
Speaker 2: Look, we all know what I want as a result
Speaker 2: out of this, but also we're trying to tell people
Speaker 2: how things are going to happen, why they might end
Speaker 2: up happening again. Henry, do you think that we know
Speaker 2: by this time tomorrow Australian time?
Speaker 3: Unfortunately, Paul, I haven't been able to pick a winner
Speaker 3: in the US presidential election for a number of election cycles.
Speaker 1: Now have much better. Don't give us one cup winner.
Speaker 1: Don't disappoint anyone. I certainly what I think.
Speaker 3: We will be waiting a while though, unfortunately, which with
Speaker 3: a bit of an anti climax, And I'm just looking
Speaker 3: forward to see how you're going to cover that as
Speaker 3: we get later into the afternoon and evening, and no
Speaker 3: result is clear, but it will be wonderful viewing.
Speaker 2: I'm looking forward to it, good man, looking forward to it?
Speaker 2: Or I enjoy your time in Parliament, Stephen. We'll be
Speaker 2: talking many times between now and when we know all right,
Speaker 2: quick break back with two blokes who know everything about
Speaker 2: Trump World, but also about the numbers and how they're
Speaker 2: playing out right now, more from Washington.
Speaker 1: Game Day.
Speaker 2: The election is today. We have been looking forward to
Speaker 2: this day for months. I've been looking forward to this
Speaker 2: conversation from the second winne we were coming here. Mick
Speaker 2: mulvaney is a former White House Chief of Staff under
Speaker 2: President Donald Trump Larry Grossman. He is a man who
Speaker 2: knows inside the polls. He is, of course with the
Speaker 2: CT Group and their managing director. Gentlemen, welcome to Game
Speaker 2: Day morning. We're excited, We're.
Speaker 1: Ready to go. Welcome to the center of the interest
Speaker 1: for today. It feels it doesn't and you can feel
Speaker 1: that right now.
Speaker 2: So both sides have made it very clear that they
Speaker 2: think they're going to win, right right down to the
Speaker 2: extent where like their campaign directors are publicly releasing memos
Speaker 2: saying in this state and this voter in this that
Speaker 2: Harris people did a whole YouTube.
Speaker 1: Video explaining how good they are.
Speaker 2: Do you think both sides sitting around are trying to
Speaker 2: push two dots together to find a way to win,
Speaker 2: or they actually think they're going to win based off
Speaker 2: their data.
Speaker 9: Larry, I think they're both very confident in that they've
Speaker 9: run good campaigns with the candidates are doing a good
Speaker 9: job in this home stratch. And how how do you
Speaker 9: go into a presidential action without being confident unless the
Speaker 9: numbers show that you're not? And I think it's too
Speaker 9: close to kyl will know maybe tonight, maybe tomorrow night,
Speaker 9: maybe in a week from now. But I think both
Speaker 9: of the campaigns look back at the past week especially
Speaker 9: and say we've done the best we can. We're getting
Speaker 9: people the polls today, and it's just a matter of
Speaker 9: what turnout is and how people pull the lever.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Mick Peyton Navarro, who is of course part of the
Speaker 2: Trump administration, He's told stories that in and around the
Speaker 2: twenty twenty campaign that there would be people who would
Speaker 2: tell the former president what he'd want to hear about
Speaker 2: numbers as opposed to this is what's really going on
Speaker 2: right in and around Trump World. Do you think that
Speaker 2: he is hearing really what's going on or is he
Speaker 2: just only hearing, Yeah, where Wilson, we're great ninety six
Speaker 2: point two percent jans of winning.
Speaker 14: It is hard to tell the candidate the truth, especially
Speaker 14: when that candidate is either the former president Nited States
Speaker 14: or the current vice president United States. There's going to
Speaker 14: be a little bit of that, but it's always going
Speaker 14: to be sort of with the sheen of but here's
Speaker 14: the good news, mister president, here's the good news, missus
Speaker 14: vice president. So you try and get a little bit
Speaker 14: that that that bad news in if there's any, but
Speaker 14: generally speaking, it's going to come with a sort of
Speaker 14: a special gloss to it that makes it look a
Speaker 14: little better than it might be.
Speaker 2: Funny talking to people about the election, just in the
Speaker 2: normal world, not on television, right, which is that it's
Speaker 2: going to be incredibly obvious after the result about why
Speaker 2: the result was.
Speaker 1: Right, So if Trump lost, it's going to be pretty obvious.
Speaker 2: Right, We're going to talk about gender gaps, We're going
Speaker 2: to talk about maybe a candidacy that to the wider
Speaker 2: electric was doa after twenty twenty and of course January sixth.
Speaker 1: Conversely, if he wins, well, the Democrats were never going
Speaker 1: to win under Biden.
Speaker 2: They were given sort of false hope of a chance here,
Speaker 2: but the reality of the economy meant they were never
Speaker 2: going to never going to get out of first gear.
Speaker 2: But of course what makes it strange on this side
Speaker 2: is everyone trying to pretend that they have any idea
Speaker 2: what's happening around the corner and what are the definitive
Speaker 2: moments of the campaign. Do you think that either that
Speaker 2: one of the two sides in the arm wrestle has
Speaker 2: won the argument before we even get to the votes,
Speaker 2: has won the argument about what the hell this vote
Speaker 2: is about?
Speaker 14: Well, yeah, I think it's just so closely divided. The
Speaker 14: neat is that I think you and I are going
Speaker 14: to be able to dissect this election for almost as
Speaker 14: long after the election as we were before the election.
Speaker 14: Were able to go through why Trump last, why Haras last,
Speaker 14: why the pulsters were wrong, why people did vote, why
Speaker 14: certain people didn't vote. There's going to be a lot
Speaker 14: of analysis once this is over.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, Larry, let's get into the pulse, right. I'm
Speaker 2: not going to ask the stupid question of are they
Speaker 2: right this time? However they have been wrong twice? Okay,
Speaker 2: has the polling industry attempted to show working about how
Speaker 2: it's ever so different, or is the X factor that
Speaker 2: hardcore Trump is will not pick up the phone, will
Speaker 2: not respond to the text message, and.
Speaker 1: That makes it very difficult to come out with an
Speaker 1: honest picture.
Speaker 9: I think everyone looks at the anecdotes of where the
Speaker 9: polls were wrong in past elections, whether it was in
Speaker 9: Wisconsin in the past where there was a huge Trump
Speaker 9: turnout at the last minute, and so the polsters themselves
Speaker 9: are going back and looking at the things that work
Speaker 9: and the things they might.
Speaker 1: Need to change.
Speaker 9: But all the polls are within the margin of error.
Speaker 9: You know, of course you have these outliers from time
Speaker 9: to time, but everything is still within one point two
Speaker 9: point So you have to question. And then you look
Speaker 9: at twenty sixteen, you look at twenty twenty, which was
Speaker 9: within the margin of errors in most places, you have
Speaker 9: to think that the poles are pretty close, just because
Speaker 9: they're so much alike such in every case.
Speaker 2: And I'm also inevitable for all of these polls, right,
Speaker 2: which is if you miss, so does your reputation, meaning
Speaker 2: in four years time, anyone paying attention to what you're
Speaker 2: trying to say.
Speaker 1: So a lot on the line for sort of the industry.
Speaker 1: You know they're absolutely wrong about that.
Speaker 14: This is so too Yeah, in this business you can
Speaker 14: be wrong most of the time and you can still
Speaker 14: have your credibility.
Speaker 1: I'm wrong more than I'm right on it.
Speaker 9: It's like the weather, the traffic.
Speaker 1: Everyone wants that snapshot in time. Yeah.
Speaker 2: And also and also it's this scenario too, where going
Speaker 2: into you know, the big game, Super Bowls, Grand Finals, whatever,
Speaker 2: you can obviously come up with every series of scenarios
Speaker 2: about what may happen and if this does happen, and
Speaker 2: if this state and that person in this demo, But
Speaker 2: of course you don't know to you know that's safe
Speaker 2: keep watching. Well, we try to have that conversation on
Speaker 2: the tilly Larry, what of the data that is out
Speaker 2: there right now? So say Paul's early vote betting, whatever,
Speaker 2: What do you think is the tea leaf that at
Speaker 2: least fills your brain with the ability to start to
Speaker 2: say it might go this way or that way.
Speaker 9: I think if you look at the early voting, which
Speaker 9: is a telltale of enthusiasm, enthusiasm either for a candidate
Speaker 9: or against a candidate is really important. But we don't
Speaker 9: know how that translates into what happens today. But if
Speaker 9: you have to look at Telltales right now, as America
Speaker 9: is waking up to go vote those who haven't done
Speaker 9: it already by mail or early voting, you have to say, Okay,
Speaker 9: that's the one thing we can see is that it's
Speaker 9: a historic number in a year in which there wasn't
Speaker 9: a pandemic, where people weren't worried about going to a
Speaker 9: crowded place.
Speaker 14: I'm looking at something a little bit different, which is
Speaker 14: new registrations, a little different piece of data. In western Pennsylvania,
Speaker 14: Republicans are up and other parts of the country, young
Speaker 14: single women are up, and that to.
Speaker 1: Me sort of gives an indication as to where the
Speaker 1: energy is.
Speaker 14: To Larry's point, if Kamala Harris wins Kamala Harrison, keep
Speaker 14: Ruskin asking me.
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, I'm with you.
Speaker 2: Well, so did the president for the entire time that
Speaker 2: he was advised.
Speaker 14: Yeah, that's why if she wins, there'll be a lot
Speaker 14: of discussion about whether or not the Taylor Swift endorsement
Speaker 14: actually counts, because ordinarily celebrity endorsements don't count, but that
Speaker 14: one celebrity is so powerful within that one demographic group
Speaker 14: that we may be talking about that a couple of
Speaker 14: days from now, could we also.
Speaker 2: Talk about Yeah, something that's strange for Australians is that,
Speaker 2: because it's a non compulsory voting system, you need to
Speaker 2: excite people up to turn up. Now. I understand that
Speaker 2: there's many ways to do so, but to me, it
Speaker 2: feels like we are right out on the edge. When
Speaker 2: Oprah Winfrey last night, Harris Rally says, vote.
Speaker 1: Because there's a chance you may never get the chance
Speaker 1: to do so. Again.
Speaker 2: For all the attacks and all of the eye rolling
Speaker 2: at what Trump has to say, why don't the Dems.
Speaker 1: Have a cop it for things like that, vote like
Speaker 1: your life depends on it.
Speaker 14: That's ridiculous, it is, and I guess it works because
Speaker 14: they've done it now every year since two thousand. I
Speaker 14: wrote a paper here in the Hill newspaper a couple
Speaker 14: weeks back about how the Democrats had referred to every
Speaker 14: Republican since Reagan in some fashion, tying them to Hitler.
Speaker 1: That includes, by the way, Mitt Romney, of all people.
Speaker 14: So after a while, you do wonder if it falls flat,
Speaker 14: and you do wonder if half of the country looks
Speaker 14: at it and says, you know what, I don't like
Speaker 14: Donald Trump, but I also don't like that crap. I'm
Speaker 14: voting for the guy just to sort of pop my thumb,
Speaker 14: and those folks.
Speaker 2: Are So do you think that I'm going to ask
Speaker 2: you about who's going to win unless you want to
Speaker 2: offer something up. But in terms of Trump and how
Speaker 2: he presented himself in that last week, right, I agree
Speaker 2: with what Meghan Kelly said about the Madison Square Garden
Speaker 2: rally too blokey right to mail.
Speaker 1: I think that when she took to the stage, there was.
Speaker 2: Almost like, Wow, you've got a future in politics, right,
Speaker 2: The clarity of the way that she spoke, and certainly
Speaker 2: being able to reach out the way that the electorate's working.
Speaker 2: We know that, Okay, this is a great difference between
Speaker 2: men and women, but the reality is you compare it,
Speaker 2: it's the same margin as twenty twenty right, ever so slightly,
Speaker 2: but it's not like there's this massive twenty five point
Speaker 2: spin in different directions. But when it comes to how
Speaker 2: Trump has closed the argument, do you reckon he's lost
Speaker 2: anyone or because people are so baked in the New
Speaker 2: York Times poll said what eighty percent of people decided
Speaker 2: months ago, So if they decided months ago, and maybe
Speaker 2: if he didn't lose people.
Speaker 1: Then why are you doing four rallies a day.
Speaker 14: He does it because he drives energy from it.
Speaker 1: He's a true extrovert. He has to do it. He
Speaker 1: can't sit home and do nothing. He must do this.
Speaker 14: But to your point, I don't think either of them
Speaker 14: really added any votes in the last week. I think
Speaker 14: they both sort of stumbled to the finish line. He
Speaker 14: never really did very well after the.
Speaker 1: Madison Square Garden. If anything.
Speaker 14: Fine, I don't think her closing argument she can't sell
Speaker 14: hope and change like Barack Obama can, and she's trying
Speaker 14: to sell to Trump as a threat to democracy.
Speaker 1: I always thought that.
Speaker 14: Was one of the weakest Democrat arguments. I sort of
Speaker 14: feel like they're both limping towards the barn, just trying
Speaker 14: to see what happens.
Speaker 2: To name Larry, the sense of a change election, right,
Speaker 2: we know that the country desperately at one point wanted anyone,
Speaker 2: But will they have the opportunity to at least change
Speaker 2: half of that?
Speaker 1: I noticed in Kamala Harris's final.
Speaker 2: Adds, it's all sort of a new way forward, which
Speaker 2: is sort of code for change. But how can you
Speaker 2: be arguing the change conversation when, of course you are
Speaker 2: the co pilot of the plane that is heading towards the.
Speaker 1: Mountain of the data and the polling that's around.
Speaker 2: Do we have any insight into who they think represents change.
Speaker 1: I don't think so.
Speaker 9: I think obviously she's served as vice president for the
Speaker 9: past four years, and she's certainly now the standard bearer
Speaker 9: for the Democratic Party. So there's going to be things
Speaker 9: that will be a continuum. But she is her own person.
Speaker 9: She will be a different president, and I would imagine
Speaker 9: that we will see things some on the margins and
Speaker 9: some very different going forward. It's hard to predict because
Speaker 9: each president is their own individual character and they'll bring
Speaker 9: things of great interest. It's hard to characterize this as
Speaker 9: a change of action other than the fact that she's
Speaker 9: a lot younger than her predices.
Speaker 14: To keep in mind, at any given time during the
Speaker 14: four year term, I'm not talking about the elections, So
Speaker 14: I'll just pick a random day in the middle of
Speaker 14: a four year term.
Speaker 1: Two thirds of America doesn't know who the vice president is. Yeah, okay,
Speaker 1: so this is the point, right.
Speaker 2: So literally four months ago, the Daily Show was doing
Speaker 2: skits about how weird her speech was right four months
Speaker 2: later Obama in a pantsuit, right, Like, I don't look
Speaker 2: and you try to distract people from their own circumstances
Speaker 2: and emotions. But I've got to say, my sense of
Speaker 2: anyone voting, regardless of what country you're in, you do
Speaker 2: make this sober assessment. You can't sort of froth people up.
Speaker 1: You do. But here's what's different. I think about this,
Speaker 1: and curious to what Larry thinks.
Speaker 14: Most elections in this country, selections everywhere, binary choices between
Speaker 14: you and me, between Larry and you.
Speaker 1: Whatever. I don't see. I'm done for Larry. I don't
Speaker 1: see that. I don't see this.
Speaker 14: With Donald Trump, twenty twenty was a referendum on Donald Trump.
Speaker 14: Twenty twenty four is a referendum on Donal Trump. You're
Speaker 14: not voting for Kamala Harris. You'ither voting for Donald Trump
Speaker 14: or against Donald Trump. And that's a unique dynamic I
Speaker 14: think in our system.
Speaker 1: Yeah, good point. Is that is that true?
Speaker 9: I think it's totally unique. And if you look at
Speaker 9: the big word about this election is about enthusiasm. Yeah,
Speaker 9: and you have two different enthusiasms that you have to
Speaker 9: focus on. One is the enthusiasm against him, and one
Speaker 9: is the enthusiasm for her. And if you had to
Speaker 9: put those two things in the balance, the enthusiasm against
Speaker 9: him would outweigh the enthusiasm.
Speaker 1: For good stuff.
Speaker 9: But as a Democrat, people are people are excited about
Speaker 9: her because she's not him, because she's.
Speaker 1: Not because he's not him.
Speaker 2: We'll think of the block who is going to be
Speaker 2: sitting in angrily watching the television who does not on
Speaker 2: the ballot.
Speaker 1: Thank you, let's do appreciate it. Can you look forward
Speaker 1: to it?
Speaker 2: Don't forget you coverage all dialogue on scott News and
Speaker 2: make sure the homepage is scotten New dot com dot au.
Speaker 1: It's game day, Election day in the United States. H
Speaker 1: m hmm.