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Speaker 1: The Reserve Bank keeps interest rates on holes and strukes

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Speaker 1: a more pessimistic tone about the outlook for inflation. There

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Speaker 1: could be big changes for the buy and hour pay

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Speaker 1: later industry, including the potential for a surcharge on purchases

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Speaker 1: and Australia climbs the competitiveness rankings. Welcome to Fear and Greed.

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Speaker 1: Daily business news for people who make their own decisions.

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Speaker 1: It is Wednesday, the nineteenth of June twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael Thompson and good morning Sean Ayller.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael Sewan.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning. The Reserve Bank left the

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Speaker 1: benchmark interest rate on hold yesterday, meaning no relief for homeowners,

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Speaker 1: and it warned that it's still worried about persistent inflation, or.

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Speaker 3: In Reserve Bank speak, Governor Michelle Bullock said, the Central

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Speaker 3: Bank is still alert to upside risks. In fact, the

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Speaker 3: board discussed lifting interest rates and a rate cut wasn't

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Speaker 3: even considered. The official cash rate remains at a twelve

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Speaker 3: year high four point three five percent after this week's

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Speaker 3: two day board meeting, but the Board's worried that inflation

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Speaker 3: remains above target and it's proving persistent. The April monthly

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Speaker 3: consumer price index data, which was up three point six

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Speaker 3: percent for the year in headline terms, was noted in

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Speaker 3: the statement yesterday, as was the strong labor market at

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Speaker 3: in decent wages growth, recent federal and state budgets, and

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Speaker 3: a lack of productivity improvement, and the Reserve Bank reckons

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Speaker 3: there's still excess demand in the economy. That's a bad thing.

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Speaker 3: We want an economy where excess and supply are matched.

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Speaker 3: The Bank said the outlook is highly uncertain and the

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Speaker 3: process of returning inflation to the two to three percent

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Speaker 3: target band is unlikely to be smooth, noting that services

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Speaker 3: inflation is particularly problematic. As always, the bank said its

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Speaker 3: main priority is getting inflation back to target. Perhaps the

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Speaker 3: silver lining in this is a comment from Michelle Bullock

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Speaker 3: during the press conference. She said that she believes the

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Speaker 3: Board has done enough to get inflation back in control.

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Speaker 3: That the inference in that is that they don't have

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Speaker 3: to lift interest rates anymore to get inflation back to

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Speaker 3: the target. But really the statement that came out yesterday

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Speaker 3: was much more hawkish than normal.

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Speaker 1: So I think I'm addicted to the Reserve Bank press conferences.

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Speaker 1: I can't look away. I don't know what it is.

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Speaker 1: It is just she uses such direct language and just

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Speaker 1: and explains things so simply and answers questions so directly.

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Speaker 1: My favorite, my favorite one yesterday was the journalist who

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Speaker 1: asked about and we talk about the significance of language,

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Speaker 1: don't we, in particularly in the Reserve Bank, say the

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Speaker 1: statements and the minutes and everything, and howeveryone kind of

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Speaker 1: it really analyzes the language used by the Reserve Bank.

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Speaker 1: And someone asked her about that yesterday and said in

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Speaker 1: particular about the use of the word vigilance, and said

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Speaker 1: that the European Central Bank had used the word vigilance

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Speaker 1: and that that was actually kind of seen almost as

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Speaker 1: a code word now for the potential for interest rate hikes.

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Speaker 1: And the journalist said, now that you actually have somebody

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Speaker 1: from the ECB kind of working within the Reserve Bank,

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Speaker 1: does that mean also the vigilance here means the potential

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Speaker 1: for interest rate hikes? And she just laughed and said, no, no,

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Speaker 1: that's not what that means. And it was just it

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Speaker 1: was just one of those really kind of light moments

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Speaker 1: where almost kind of poking a bit of fun at

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Speaker 1: the way that that journalists and everyone really probably over

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Speaker 1: analyzes a lot of the language that the Reserve Bank

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Speaker 1: uses at times.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it'd be very hard to be the

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Speaker 3: Reserve Bank governor because no matter what she says, people

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Speaker 3: are trying to read something into it. Oh yeah, probably

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Speaker 3: just trying to say what she's thinking.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, it was an absolute rippar. Anyway, Sean, how

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Speaker 1: did markets and economists react to the statement yesterday?

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Speaker 3: Well, shares fell after the two thirty pm announcement, and

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Speaker 3: bond yields roses did the Aussie dollar that jumped back

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Speaker 3: above sixty six yuss sense that all suggests that the

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Speaker 3: turne of the statement was a little more hawkish, little

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Speaker 3: more supportive of higher rates than lower rates. The critical

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Speaker 3: reference point will be the quarter CPI figures, which aren't

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Speaker 3: you out for another six weeks the end of July.

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Speaker 3: If that comes in higher than expected, then a rate

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Speaker 3: rise at the August A board meeting is actually a possibility. Now,

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Speaker 3: the consensus view among economists isn't that it's still that

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Speaker 3: the Reserve Bank's next move will be to cut interest

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Speaker 3: rates either.

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Speaker 2: Late this year or early next year.

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Speaker 3: But where we stand this morning, maybe just not quite

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Speaker 3: as confident about getting inflation back in control, though it's

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Speaker 3: probably fairly marginal.

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Speaker 1: Now, Sean, straight after the show, you have an interview

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Speaker 1: coming up with Diana Messina, deputy chief economist at AMP.

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Speaker 3: Sure do we ask her what she makes of yesterday's

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Speaker 3: Reserve Bank statement and also just how the economy is traveling.

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Speaker 3: They've got fairly definite views on what's going to happen

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Speaker 3: to interest rate, so definitely well worth listening to my

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Speaker 3: chat with Diana.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, certainly is all right. Taking a broader look now

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Speaker 1: at local markets, what happened.

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Speaker 2: Yesterday was actually a really good day.

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Speaker 3: The SMPA SX two hundred closed the day up one

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Speaker 3: percent to seven seven hundred and seventy eight points, notwithstanding

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Speaker 3: that slight HICCU after the Reserve Bank rates announcement. Utilities

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Speaker 3: led the wave, followed by financials and industrials, and it

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Speaker 3: was one of the best sessions in more than a month.

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Speaker 3: Comwealth Bank hit in another all time high, closing at

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Speaker 3: one hundred and twenty seven dollars and ninety eight cents,

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Speaker 3: up two percent on the day. Now, that's despite high

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Speaker 3: profile investor Phil King coming out very publicly and saying

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Speaker 3: he's betting against the bank. He expects its share price

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Speaker 3: to fall. Well, I actually went the other way yesterday.

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Speaker 3: National Australian Bank also jumped two percent to reach a

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Speaker 3: new nine year high. Macquarie Groups urged two point six percent,

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Speaker 3: while CS Sir laine' Z, Telstret Transerv and Aristocrat Leisure

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Speaker 3: Coles they all outperformed. Best on the day was Toll

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Speaker 3: Road Group Atlas Arteria, which rose more than five percent.

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Speaker 3: Sigma Healthcare was up four and a half percent. Worst

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Speaker 3: was four Toeskew. Interesting this one, its share price tumbled

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Speaker 3: more than five percent. That followed a one point one

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Speaker 3: billion dollar block trade on Monday night after the closing bell.

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Speaker 3: Now block trade is a privately negotiated sale or purchase

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Speaker 3: of a large block of shares, in this case for

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Speaker 3: sq Metals Group. Media reports say the trade was being

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Speaker 3: offered at twenty one dollars sixty, which is a six

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Speaker 3: percent discount to Ford Eskew's last trading price, hence that

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Speaker 3: big drop yesterday. Beach Energy was another interesting one. Yesterday's

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Speaker 3: share price film more than two percent after it came

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Speaker 3: out and said it will cut spending, operating costs and

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Speaker 3: jobs and raise the hurdle and returns for future projects

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Speaker 3: in a bid to improve the company's performance.

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Speaker 1: And what about international markets?

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Speaker 3: The Wall Street tech stocks keep on keeping on, but

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Speaker 3: this time it's Tesla's share price that's surging up five

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Speaker 3: percent yesterday. It's now up more than thirty percent from

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Speaker 3: its low point a couple of months ago. Apple also

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Speaker 3: did well, up another couple of percent. Its value is

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Speaker 3: now three point three trillion US solos has way more

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Speaker 3: than the total value of the Australian superannuation sector, about

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Speaker 3: thirty percent more than the value of the Australian superannuation sector.

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Speaker 3: Incredible Bitcoin feld were one month low on the back

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Speaker 3: of the prospect of higher for longer US interest rates.

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Speaker 3: It's worth about sixty five one thousand and three hundred

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Speaker 3: US dollars a unit. Other smaller tokens also fell. I

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Speaker 3: mentioned the Aussie dollar back above sixty six US cents.

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Speaker 3: Not a lot happening in oil and gold markets with

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Speaker 3: prices pretty flat.

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Speaker 1: And of course, Sean Today is Wednesday, it is newsletter today,

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Speaker 1: and so mid morning the Fear and Greed newsletter will

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Speaker 1: be coming out head along to Fearanngreed dot com dot au.

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Speaker 1: Pop your email addressing and you will get today's newsletter.

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Speaker 2: It's full of.

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Speaker 1: Your views on these stories. Usually you're just reporting the facts,

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Speaker 1: and when the newsletter comes out, we get a little

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Speaker 1: bit of what you really think.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, bit on the Reserve Bank today, bit on sort

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Speaker 3: of AFL bosses taking out of publicly listed companies, a

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Speaker 3: little bit on China as well.

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Speaker 2: Plenty in it, Michael plenty in it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, Alma unloads unleashed, Yeah, unloads.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, maybe there's definitely like unloads.

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Speaker 1: I really you know what, I kind of like it.

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Speaker 1: Just just sign up fearangreed dot com, Doda, you put

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Speaker 1: to email address in and you can see whether Alma

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Speaker 1: unloads is a is a fitting title.

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Speaker 2: I think it is.

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Speaker 1: We'll be back in a moment with the rest of

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Speaker 1: the day's business news.

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Speaker 2: Shawn.

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Speaker 1: The federal government has lodged a protest with the Chinese

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Speaker 1: embassy after members of Premier League Chung's delegation attempted to

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Speaker 1: block journalist Chung Lay from view at a press conference

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Speaker 1: on Monday.

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Speaker 3: MS Chung was detained for three years in China on

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Speaker 3: national security grounds, but was released as relations stabilized between

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Speaker 3: the two countries. She now works for Sky News. Prime

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Speaker 3: Minister Anthony Alberzi told ABC West Australian Radio yesterday that

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Speaker 3: the attempt by Chinese officials to block her from site

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Speaker 3: during a parliamentary ceremony was concerning. Miss Lay actually moved

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Speaker 3: seats at the signing ceremony, but her view was again obstructed.

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Speaker 3: Miss Albernzi said there should be no impediments to Australian

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Speaker 3: journalists going about their job, and he said he had

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Speaker 3: made that clear to the Chinese embassy.

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Speaker 1: Communications Minister Michelle Roland said she is very keenly watching

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Speaker 1: studies in Australia about the effect of social media on

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Speaker 1: children's health, though she stopped short of endorsing a push

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Speaker 1: in the US for cigarette style warnings.

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Speaker 3: Earlier this week, the US Surgeon General suggested that warnings

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Speaker 3: be placed on social media due to risks to children's

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Speaker 3: mental health. Now. Mss Roland yesterday said she was very

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Speaker 3: cleanly watching several reviews and trials the government's commissioned on

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Speaker 3: the problems around social media, including Facebook, TikTok, Instagram and YouTube.

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Speaker 3: She also mentioned a trial of an age threshold that

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Speaker 3: would lift legal use of social media apps from thirteen

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Speaker 3: to sixteen. Miss Roland said Australia was the head on

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Speaker 3: regulation and delivered education programs in schools to warn about

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Speaker 3: the dangers of social media. It comes a week after

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Speaker 3: both sides of politics endorsed the concept of lifting the

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Speaker 3: legal age for accessing social media from thirteen to sixteen

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Speaker 3: years now.

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Speaker 1: Sean I mentioned this next one at the top of

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Speaker 1: the show. There could be major changes coming to the

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Speaker 1: buy and now pay later sector, including retailers adding on

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Speaker 1: a surcharge for the surve us after the Reserve Bank

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Speaker 1: said it will launch a review of payments regulation.

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Speaker 3: One of the selling points of Buying Our Pay Later

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Speaker 3: is that there is no surcharge like there is on

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Speaker 3: a credit card. But the Reserve Bank's inquiry will consider

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Speaker 3: forcing bine our pay later operators to allow retailers to

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Speaker 3: pass the cost of services through to customers. That doesn't happen.

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Speaker 3: It happens in the card industry, but a retailer who

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Speaker 3: is accepting a buy in our pay later product can't

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Speaker 3: pass on the cost of that to the customer. It

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Speaker 3: may well find its way into the total cost of

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Speaker 3: a good, but you can't do it as a specific charge.

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Speaker 3: If it's allowed, it might mean a small percentage charge

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Speaker 3: when you actually do a Buying our Pay Later transaction,

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Speaker 3: which takes away some of the advantage of that type

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Speaker 3: of transaction. The Reserve Bank said it will launch review

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Speaker 3: once the federal government passes the bill to provide it

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Speaker 3: with stronger powers over digital wallets such as Apple Pay

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Speaker 3: and buy Our Pay Later operators. A senior official yesterday

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Speaker 3: said that the buy and Our Pay Later sector continues

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Speaker 3: to grow. It's worth about twenty billion dollars each year,

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Speaker 3: but the average fee charged to retailers for buying our

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Speaker 3: Pay Later servers is about three point four percent the

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Speaker 3: cost of goods. That compares to about zero point four

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Speaker 3: percent for debit card zero point eight percent for credit cards.

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Speaker 3: This all comes as Apple scraps its own by Our

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Speaker 3: Pay Later service just a year after launch. Instead, Apple

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Speaker 3: we used third party providers member Last week, A and

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Speaker 3: Z became the first Australian beak to do a deal

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Speaker 3: with Apple to offer buy our Pay Later options directly

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Speaker 3: via the iPhone.

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Speaker 1: Sean Australia has been placed thirteenth out of sixty seven

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Speaker 1: countries in terms of competitiveness, helped by global commodity prices

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Speaker 1: and a pretty healthy jobs market.

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Speaker 3: Yes the Swiss based Institute for Management Development is considered

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Speaker 3: one of the top schools in the world. Its rankings

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Speaker 3: are highly regarded. Australia's ranking this year is its best

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Speaker 3: since twenty eleven, helped along by business and government investment,

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Speaker 3: population growth and a reasonable budget position. IMD's rankings consider

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Speaker 3: economic performance, government efficiency, business efficiency and infrastructure very much

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Speaker 3: focused on economics. Singapore acclaimed first place after slipping the

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Speaker 3: last few years. Switzerland was second, Denmark third. Survey respondents

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Speaker 3: were all asked to consider what factors would have the

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Speaker 3: greatest impact on business in twenty twenty four, AI adoption

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Speaker 3: came in first, ahead of the risk of a global

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Speaker 3: economic slow down and then geopolitical conflicts.

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Speaker 1: Sean. Yesterday we heard about the pollys getting a pay rise.

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Speaker 1: Now it's the public servants, with the head of the

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Speaker 1: Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet becoming the first federal

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Speaker 1: bureaucrat to earn more than a million dollars a year.

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Speaker 3: His name is Glynn Davis. He's now the highest paid

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Speaker 3: secretary in the public service. He'll take home an extra

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Speaker 3: thirty four thousand dollars a year in line with new

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Speaker 3: changes that come into effect on July one. Means his ennery,

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Speaker 3: your salary will be one million, eleven four hundred and

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Speaker 3: two dollars. Treasury Secretary Stephen Kennedy will receive thirty three

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Speaker 3: thousand dollars more to nine hundred and eighty six thousand dollars,

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Speaker 3: while level three department secretaries think the bosses of Attorney General's, Defense, Education, Finance,

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Speaker 3: Home Affairs, et cetera, they'll receive an extra thirty two

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Speaker 3: thousand dollars to nine hundred and sixty one thousand dollars. Now,

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Speaker 3: keep in mind this compares to the Prime minister salary

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Speaker 3: of six hundred and seven thousand dollars, so they make

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Speaker 3: a lot more. The bureaucrats make a lot more than

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Speaker 3: the politicians.

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Speaker 2: That's a little bit awkward, isn't it. That's right.

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Speaker 3: Don't tell me what to do. You're not at my

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Speaker 3: pay grade.

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Speaker 2: Indeed, I'll do it.

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Speaker 1: I want you here very much sewn. The new South

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Speaker 1: Wales budget was released yesterday. Higher property taxes is a feature,

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Speaker 1: as is more frontline public servants and nine years of

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Speaker 1: budget deficits.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, just the nine years.

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Speaker 3: There weren't any energy rebates as other states have offered,

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Speaker 3: but transferred duties and land tax will deliver nearly eight

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Speaker 3: billion dollars extra over the next four years. The budget

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Speaker 3: shows that the state's GST revenue will be about six

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Speaker 3: billion dollars lower than previously forecasts through to twenty twenty eight.

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Speaker 3: In terms of spending, the government is aiming to deliver

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Speaker 3: thirty thousand new homes on surplus government land that would

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Speaker 3: be freed up for development. Also, there's money for domestic

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Speaker 3: violence support services, a rebate of payroll tax the GPS

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Speaker 3: who bulk bill, and more money for essential workers. There's

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Speaker 3: also one and a half billion dollars for maintenance at

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Speaker 3: hundreds of public schools across the state, more money for

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Speaker 3: health services in regional Australia Okay.

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Speaker 1: Turning to international news now, and South Korean soldiers fired

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Speaker 1: warning shots of what appeared to be dozens of North

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Speaker 1: Korean troops who briefly crossed the border dividing the peninsula,

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Speaker 1: in the second such incidents in less than two weeks.

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Speaker 3: More than twenty North Korean soldiers who were on maintenance

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Speaker 3: work across the line yesterday and moved back north after

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Speaker 3: the shots were fired. According to a report on Bloomberg,

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Speaker 3: the incident took place amid North Korean activities near the

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Speaker 3: border region with its soldiers recently spotted laying new mines,

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Speaker 3: renovating roads, and establishing what appears to be an anti

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Speaker 3: tank barrier along the border. That's according to South Korean military.

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Speaker 3: Tensions between the rivals have been on the rise since

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Speaker 3: late last month, when North Korea began sending hundreds of

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Speaker 3: balloons carrying rubbish over the border after complaining about South

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Speaker 3: Korea conducting surveillance of flights. Now, I know this is

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Speaker 3: a very serious story, but I have loved this story

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Speaker 3: about North Korean sending balloons carrying rubbish across the border.

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Speaker 3: Maybe I shouldn't make light of it because.

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Speaker 1: There were some that they weren't just containing rubbish, some

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Speaker 1: also containing human waste, right.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, which is just rubbish.

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Speaker 3: It's a nice generic term.

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Speaker 2: It's like that is just it's oldish.

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Speaker 1: It's quite childish, isn't it. This will get them. Let's

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Speaker 1: send a couple of balloons full of you know what.

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Speaker 3: The incident yesterday took place just hours before Russian President

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Speaker 3: Vladimir Putin was due to a ribe in Pyeongyang for

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Speaker 3: his first trip to North Korea since two thousand. I

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Speaker 3: think we should move on. I would never be much

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Speaker 3: of a diplomat, I'd laugh too much.

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Speaker 1: I've got to keep a very straight face with all

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Speaker 1: of that show. Now, this last one's actually really serious,

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Speaker 1: isn't it. Johnson and Johnson has been hit with a

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Speaker 1: new lawsuit from former users of TALC, who claimed that

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Speaker 1: the world's largest maker of healthcare products hid the cancer

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Speaker 1: risks of its iconic baby powder.

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Speaker 3: Did you grow up with Johnson and Johnson Talc? Yes,

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Speaker 3: baby powter, Yes me too, Yeah, totally so. Lawyers representing

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Speaker 3: ex TALC users have asked a New Jersey federal judge

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Speaker 3: to set up a medical monitoring class to cover the

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Speaker 3: expenses of doctors' visits and tests for women worried about

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Speaker 3: godeological and ovarian cancers. Johnson and Johnson officials have dismissed

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Speaker 3: the proposed class action as a meritless complaint. This is

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Speaker 3: part of a much bigger campaign. Johnson and Johnson now

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Speaker 3: faces more than sixty one thousand lawsuits blaming TALC used

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Speaker 3: in baby powder and similar products for different types of cancers.

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Speaker 3: Many of those cases have been consolidated before the judge

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Speaker 3: in New Jersey who's overseeing the proposed medical monitoring class

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Speaker 3: action case, Jane Jay maintains its TALC based products don't

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Speaker 3: cause cancer, and it's marketed it's baby powder appropriately for

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Speaker 3: more than a century. But it's also asked the thousands

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Speaker 3: of people suing it to vote for a settlement that

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Speaker 3: would resolve all litigation for about eleven billion US dollars.

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Speaker 3: It's about two billion dollars more than the company offered

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Speaker 3: last year. You know, this is an ongoing massive dispute

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Speaker 3: around talcmpowder.

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Speaker 1: All right, Up next, Sean, is the Fear and Greed

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Speaker 1: Daily Interview. You're speaking today with Dana Messina, deputy chief

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Speaker 1: economist at AMP.

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Speaker 3: All about yesterday's at Reserve Bank decision, what they said

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Speaker 3: and what's going to happen in the economy. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: It is up next in the Fear and Greed playlist

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Speaker 1: on your podcast platform or at Fearinggreed dot com dot au,

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Speaker 1: which is also where you sign up for the newsletter,

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Speaker 1: which is coming out in just a handful of hours. Sean,

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Speaker 1: and I trust it is.

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Speaker 2: It's all done. I'm assuming very close, very close to being.

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Speaker 1: It's inching towards completion moments away.

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Speaker 2: Thank you very much, Sean, Thank you, Michael.

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Speaker 1: It's Wednesday, the nineteenth of June. Twenty twenty four. Make

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Speaker 1: sure you're following the podcast and please join us online

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Speaker 1: on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson

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Speaker 1: and that was fear and greed.

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Speaker 2: Have a great day.