WEBVTT - Trump v Zelensky: Round 2

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<v Speaker 1>Hi, I'm Ruby Jones, and you're listening to seven AM.

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<v Speaker 1>Fresh off the back of his meeting with Putin in Alaska,

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<v Speaker 1>US President Donald Trump has held talks with ukraine'st Lord Miszelenski.

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<v Speaker 2>While details of those.

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<v Speaker 1>Talks are still trickling out, this time things seem to

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<v Speaker 1>have gone well. Trump has promised Ukraine's security and is

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<v Speaker 1>now talking about a peace deal, though not a ceasefire.

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<v Speaker 2>Today Associate professor of political.

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<v Speaker 1>Science and International Affairs at George Washington University David Sikoni

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<v Speaker 1>on Trump's plan to profit from providing protection and whether

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<v Speaker 1>we might see an end to the Russia Ukraine War.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Wednesday, August twenty David. The last time we spoke,

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<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump and Lord Miszelensky had just had that desire

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<v Speaker 1>fosterous meeting in the Oval Office. Zelensky has now been

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<v Speaker 1>back for another one.

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<v Speaker 2>How did it go?

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<v Speaker 3>I would open by saying Zelensky clearly took a couple

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<v Speaker 3>of important lessons away from that February encounter in the

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<v Speaker 3>Oval Office.

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<v Speaker 4>Almost, President, you look fabulous in that suit, I said, Yeah,

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<v Speaker 4>Look you look good, I said the same thing.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah. First she wore a suit military inspired in all

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<v Speaker 3>black but still a suit, and not only got a

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<v Speaker 3>thumbs up from Trump, but Selensky even got a chance

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<v Speaker 3>to banter with the Fox News journalists, who regretibly tried

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<v Speaker 3>to call him out on it back in February in

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<v Speaker 3>the same suit. I changed. Second, he didn't come alone,

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<v Speaker 3>which really changed the dynamic. He and Trump met for

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<v Speaker 3>an hour one on one, but they're joined by the

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<v Speaker 3>French President, German Chancellor, NATO Secretary General, Finnish president, a

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<v Speaker 3>whole host of characters that I think put Trump in

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<v Speaker 3>a very different position where he wasn't able to die dominate.

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<v Speaker 4>Thank you too much. I think that we had a

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<v Speaker 4>very good conversation with President, very good and it really

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<v Speaker 4>was the best one or so maybe the best one

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<v Speaker 4>will be in the future.

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<v Speaker 3>So Lensky also made a point of expressing gratitude, supposedly

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<v Speaker 3>told Trump thank you ten times during the meeting, which

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<v Speaker 3>again Trump really likes to hear. Now, in terms of outcomes,

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<v Speaker 3>we don't know much about what actually happened. Trump supposed

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<v Speaker 3>lead left for a forty minute phone call with Putin

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<v Speaker 3>in the middle of negotiations. Has said that the US

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<v Speaker 3>is going to provide potentially troops on the ground and

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<v Speaker 3>full security. However, you know, water has already been poured

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<v Speaker 3>on some of these hopes from the Russian side, and

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<v Speaker 3>I think there's a bit of kind of maybe misunderstanding

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<v Speaker 3>about what we should expect next between Ukraine and Russia,

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<v Speaker 3>especially in the US.

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<v Speaker 1>In the middle Okay, and central to the negotiations that

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<v Speaker 1>are happening at the moment is this idea of land swapping.

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<v Speaker 1>So that's something that Trump signaled in the lead up

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<v Speaker 1>the talks that he had with Putin.

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<v Speaker 2>So tell me.

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<v Speaker 1>About the Ukrainian territory that Russia currently occupies and what

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<v Speaker 1>we know about what Putin would like to see happen.

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<v Speaker 3>Sure, Russia currently occupies about twenty percent of Ukraine proper,

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<v Speaker 3>and that includes Crimea and roughly two thirds of four

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<v Speaker 3>eastern and southern oblasts Danietskukan, Zaparija, and Hrson, collectively known

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<v Speaker 3>as say the don Bus. Now, Putin not only wants

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<v Speaker 3>to cement that area of control and annexation that Russia

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<v Speaker 3>has claimed, but he's demanding full sovereignty almost as a

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<v Speaker 3>precondition for a ceasefire over the remaining twenty five percent

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<v Speaker 3>of danetsk Olblust. Now, this is area that Russia is

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<v Speaker 3>claiming but has not yet captured and is still in

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<v Speaker 3>ukraine hands, and Putin wants it transferred basically as soon

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<v Speaker 3>as possible, as a condition for stopping the fighting on

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<v Speaker 3>the ground.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, and just in terms of that region, how important

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<v Speaker 1>is it to Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, the part of the Dambast that Putin is targeting

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<v Speaker 3>is critical to protecting the rest of Ukraine. It's highly fortified,

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<v Speaker 3>it's very strategic. Conceding it would severely weaken Ukraine's defensive

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<v Speaker 3>posture and endanger the remaining front line. I think it's

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<v Speaker 3>foolish to think that Putin would want this specific territory

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<v Speaker 3>and then stop there. That kind of acquisition would give

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<v Speaker 3>him a lot of momentum and advantages to keep pushing

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<v Speaker 3>westward towards Kiev and potentially the rest of the country.

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<v Speaker 3>And I think it's obvious why Zielenski is so reluctant

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<v Speaker 3>to concede any territories, because without a firm commitment from

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<v Speaker 3>the West as a security guarantee, giving Putin more land

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<v Speaker 3>could embolden and even kind of incentivize further military action

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<v Speaker 3>throughout the rest of Ukraine. And that's just unthinkable from

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<v Speaker 3>the Ukrainian current position.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, let's talk a little bit about a potential security guarantee.

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<v Speaker 2>We've got Trump saying that there will be one.

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<v Speaker 4>But we will give them very good protection, very good security,

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<v Speaker 4>and that's part of it. And the people that are

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<v Speaker 4>waiting for us, they are I think they're very like minded.

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<v Speaker 2>They want to what do we know about what might

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<v Speaker 2>happen there?

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<v Speaker 3>We know very little in great detail about what that

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<v Speaker 3>guarantee would look like. Trump is vacillated even over the

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<v Speaker 3>weekend about whether or not US troops or US forces

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<v Speaker 3>would be involved in some way in public and probably

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<v Speaker 3>behind closed doors. He's telling different people different things, and

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<v Speaker 3>I'm not sure that the Trump administration has really come

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<v Speaker 3>to affirm conclusion about what they're prepared to deploy within Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 3>It's clear what Ukraine and the European allies want, which

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<v Speaker 3>is something like an Article five NATO asks guarantee that

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<v Speaker 3>a Russian would ever restart military operations that the West

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<v Speaker 3>and NATO specifically would come to Ukraine's defense. But I

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<v Speaker 3>think it's very premature to know what the Trump administration

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<v Speaker 3>is willing to do in Ukraine, and it conflicts with

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of Trump's campaign rhetoric that we as America

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<v Speaker 3>wouldn't be sending more troops to Ukraine. So I think

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<v Speaker 3>he might be in a difficult domestic position that could

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<v Speaker 3>conflict with some of the things he's been telling other leaders.

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<v Speaker 1>And so how do you think that Zelenski and his

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<v Speaker 1>allies in Europe will be feeling after this meeting at

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<v Speaker 1>the White House.

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<v Speaker 3>I think they're going to sleep well tonight. There was

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<v Speaker 3>this fear that Trump could tell them something very much

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<v Speaker 3>that they didn't want to hear and revert back to

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<v Speaker 3>positions that are much more favorable to Russia's side. But

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<v Speaker 3>with Trump going forward, you just never know. A meeting

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<v Speaker 3>ends on a high note, and within twenty four hours

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<v Speaker 3>or forty eight hours, you get a new truth social

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<v Speaker 3>or a new statement from a Trump ally that completely

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<v Speaker 3>contradicts what he told the last person in the room

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<v Speaker 3>on the last day. At the end of the day,

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<v Speaker 3>Trump's interests come first, oftentimes and mostly above the US interests,

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<v Speaker 3>and definitely above Ukraine's. So there's so much power invested

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<v Speaker 3>in this one person, and he is inherently unpredictable.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up why Trump's meeting with Putin last week was

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<v Speaker 1>a huge victory for Russia.

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<v Speaker 5>Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are in talks tonight to

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<v Speaker 5>try to bring an end to the war in Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 5>The leaders arrived in Anchorage in Alaska a couple of

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<v Speaker 5>hours ago, greeting each other on a red carpet laid

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<v Speaker 5>out on a US Air Force base David.

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<v Speaker 1>On Friday, Trump met with Putin in Alaska. Tell me

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<v Speaker 1>a bit about that meeting and what came.

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<v Speaker 3>Out of that. And first, the fact that the meaning

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<v Speaker 3>happened at all was already a victory for the Russians.

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<v Speaker 3>They got a red carpet on US soil, the first

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<v Speaker 3>Putin visit in a decade, without having to concede anything

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<v Speaker 3>or make any type of gift to the US side,

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<v Speaker 3>and order to make that happen. Yeah, and this is

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<v Speaker 3>a moment. It was a real moment.

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<v Speaker 2>And there you see President of the United States first

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<v Speaker 2>deeplaning Air Force one. You know, let's just take a

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<v Speaker 2>moment and listen to this moment.

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<v Speaker 3>I also think the Russians realized early on that Trump

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<v Speaker 3>was so focused on breaking the diplomatic impasse that he

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<v Speaker 3>was very much unprepared for how negotiations would actually go.

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<v Speaker 3>There was sort of no planning, no pre agreements, no

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<v Speaker 3>real specific items. The plan was going to be built

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<v Speaker 3>mid flight, and the Russians correctly calculated that they could

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<v Speaker 3>give away nothing and come out ahead. I think that's

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<v Speaker 3>what we saw. That Trump administration was very surprised about

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<v Speaker 3>how intransigent he was during those talks, and he felt

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<v Speaker 3>like he got this high profile summit that restored Russia's

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<v Speaker 3>status as a great superpower. To quote some of the

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<v Speaker 3>Moscow newspapers, Trump was embarrassed and very much wanted to

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<v Speaker 3>change the subject as soon as possible onto the next

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<v Speaker 3>meeting with Zelensky, rather than dwell in the fact that

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<v Speaker 3>he had raised expectations that there could be a ceasefire

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<v Speaker 3>coming out of it.

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<v Speaker 4>I believe we had a very productive meeting. There were

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<v Speaker 4>many many points that we agreed on most of them,

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<v Speaker 4>I would say a couple of big ones that we

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<v Speaker 4>haven't quite got there, but we've made some headway. So

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<v Speaker 4>there's no deal until there's a deal, I will.

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<v Speaker 3>But Putin left smiling and returned home triumphantly demonstrating that

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<v Speaker 3>Russia had broken through the diplomatic isolation of the last

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<v Speaker 3>four years.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, and there was so much talk about a ceasefire

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<v Speaker 1>going into those talks, Obviously there was no agreement made

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<v Speaker 1>for one. Now instead the language is around having some

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<v Speaker 1>sort of peace steal.

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<v Speaker 2>But can you have a peace deal without a ceasefire?

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<v Speaker 3>I think it's unlikely, but not impossible. I think most

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<v Speaker 3>successful peace talks begin with the ceasefire and allow the

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<v Speaker 3>sides to breathe a little bit. These two sides are

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<v Speaker 3>bit at each other's throats since February twenty twenty two.

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<v Speaker 3>There's a lot of enmity between them, and I just

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<v Speaker 3>can't imagine that you could hash out peace while Russian

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<v Speaker 3>bombers are killing Ukrainian civili And.

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<v Speaker 1>When we talk about strong and durable agreements, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>to what extent do you think Zelenski can or should

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<v Speaker 1>trust anything that is being said about a security deal

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<v Speaker 1>at this point or is it just too unpredictable to.

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<v Speaker 2>Really be able to put faith into.

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<v Speaker 3>I think he's still correctly reticent, but things have evolved

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<v Speaker 3>considerably since that February encounter in the Oval Office. The

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<v Speaker 3>US is still providing the level of military aid that

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<v Speaker 3>had committed to under Biden, of course, with some caveats,

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<v Speaker 3>major ones. Republicans in Congress have hardened their stance towards Russia.

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<v Speaker 3>Since then, Trump's rhetoric has changed a lot, at least

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<v Speaker 3>the public rhetoric about what Putin is guilty of in

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<v Speaker 3>Ukraine and how he needs to stop. So with time,

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<v Speaker 3>I wouldn't put it out of the realm possibility that

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<v Speaker 3>the US could offer real security guarantees to Ukraine. Of course,

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<v Speaker 3>I think this is critical exchange for material compensation, which

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<v Speaker 3>tragically seems to drive every US foreign policy move these days.

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<v Speaker 2>And what would material compensation be.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, I think it's clear that Trump administration wants

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<v Speaker 3>to sell weapons to Ukraine and have somebody else pay

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<v Speaker 3>for them. There's this obsession with cutting budget spending and

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<v Speaker 3>anything that's not a core Conservative or MAGA priority, and

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<v Speaker 3>this falls into that category. And I think they think

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<v Speaker 3>there is some political value in saying that we help Ukraine,

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<v Speaker 3>but we were paid to do so. I don't understand

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<v Speaker 3>that logic. It really contravenes centuries of American foreign policy,

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<v Speaker 3>but that seems very important to the Trump administration. So

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<v Speaker 3>as long as somebody else is footing the bill, even

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<v Speaker 3>for the troops themselves, not just the weaponry, I think

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<v Speaker 3>it's very possible that Trump would come around to that

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<v Speaker 3>and try to champion this as a victory because the

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<v Speaker 3>US was not just giving away things for free, right.

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<v Speaker 1>And Trump has been calling on Europe to spend more,

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<v Speaker 1>to do more for a while.

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<v Speaker 2>So has that happened. Is europe playing a stronger role.

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<v Speaker 3>Absolutely, But the Europeans were already doing a ton before

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<v Speaker 3>Trump said that, So he was I think very unfair

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<v Speaker 3>in the way that he described what the US had

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<v Speaker 3>done compared to what the Europeans had done. But it

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<v Speaker 3>is good that this is galvanizing a European coalition that

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<v Speaker 3>is committed to the long term economic, political, and military

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<v Speaker 3>development of Ukraine, and that is allied and is also

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<v Speaker 3>seemingly adept at working with Trump and salvaging the Transatlantic Alliance,

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<v Speaker 3>which again, six months ago, Trump was still talking about

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<v Speaker 3>leaving NATO an abandoning military bases, and there were all

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<v Speaker 3>these rumors that the US was pulling out of Europe.

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<v Speaker 3>We're not having those same conversations today. Meetings are happening

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<v Speaker 3>like they get on Monday in the White House with

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<v Speaker 3>this huge contingent, and Trump seems way more open to

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<v Speaker 3>cooperation with the Europeans as long as he seeses them

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<v Speaker 3>pulling their weight more than they have over the last

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<v Speaker 3>couple of decades.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, and we've now heard that the next step in

0:13:02.640 --> 0:13:06.560
<v Speaker 1>all of this will be a meeting between Zelenski and Putin.

0:13:06.800 --> 0:13:09.559
<v Speaker 2>So what do you think we're likely to see out

0:13:09.600 --> 0:13:09.800
<v Speaker 2>of that.

0:13:10.320 --> 0:13:13.120
<v Speaker 3>I'm not a betting man, but I still wouldn't bet

0:13:13.160 --> 0:13:15.200
<v Speaker 3>on this, or I'd bet against.

0:13:14.920 --> 0:13:17.840
<v Speaker 2>It, against the meeting happening, against.

0:13:17.400 --> 0:13:21.160
<v Speaker 3>The meeting happening. Now there are still people who are

0:13:21.160 --> 0:13:24.280
<v Speaker 3>participants in this meeting coming out and saying that Trump

0:13:24.280 --> 0:13:26.400
<v Speaker 3>got off the phone and Putin said that it's going

0:13:26.480 --> 0:13:30.160
<v Speaker 3>to happen the next two weeks. I think there's two

0:13:30.240 --> 0:13:33.679
<v Speaker 3>big reasons to be skeptical, And the first is that

0:13:33.920 --> 0:13:35.880
<v Speaker 3>the Russians have already come out and said they discussed

0:13:35.880 --> 0:13:38.400
<v Speaker 3>the idea of a meeting, rather than gave any type

0:13:38.440 --> 0:13:42.959
<v Speaker 3>of commitment to it, so they're walking back whatever Putin said.

0:13:43.520 --> 0:13:48.439
<v Speaker 3>The second is that we've had these translation issues between

0:13:48.559 --> 0:13:53.280
<v Speaker 3>Trump emissaries and Putin specifically, and I think it's possible

0:13:53.320 --> 0:13:57.200
<v Speaker 3>that something just got lost or misunderstood in the phone call,

0:13:57.280 --> 0:14:02.720
<v Speaker 3>that Putin never promised a concrete date or setting. So

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<v Speaker 3>and I'll believe it when I see it, but yeah,

0:14:06.280 --> 0:14:07.559
<v Speaker 3>you can hold me to that prediction.

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<v Speaker 2>David, Thank you so much for your time.

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<v Speaker 3>Thank you for having me. H.

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<v Speaker 1>Also in the news today, Defense Minister Richard Moles says

0:14:31.960 --> 0:14:35.400
<v Speaker 1>the government is open to sending peacekeeping forces to Ukraine

0:14:35.720 --> 0:14:38.480
<v Speaker 1>if a peace steal is agreed to with Russia. The

0:14:38.520 --> 0:14:41.920
<v Speaker 1>comments come after Shadow Finance Minister James Patterson said the

0:14:41.920 --> 0:14:45.320
<v Speaker 1>Coalition was open to contributing to a peacekeeping effort, a

0:14:45.360 --> 0:14:48.440
<v Speaker 1>shifting stance from formal Opposition leader Peter Dutton, who was

0:14:48.520 --> 0:14:53.040
<v Speaker 1>dismissive of Australian involvement. And Foreign Minister Penny Wong has

0:14:53.040 --> 0:14:55.520
<v Speaker 1>called the decision from Israel to revoke the visas of

0:14:55.560 --> 0:15:00.840
<v Speaker 1>Australia's diplomatic representatives to the Palestinian authority unjustified, saying well

0:15:00.920 --> 0:15:04.360
<v Speaker 1>undermine AID efforts. Israel says the call was in response

0:15:04.400 --> 0:15:07.960
<v Speaker 1>to both Australia's decision to recognize the Palestinian state, as

0:15:07.960 --> 0:15:11.080
<v Speaker 1>well as to cancel the visa of far right Israeli politicians.

0:15:11.080 --> 0:15:13.680
<v Speaker 1>Sim To Rothman, who was due to start a speaking

0:15:13.680 --> 0:15:17.600
<v Speaker 1>tour in Australia, I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven AM

0:15:17.720 --> 0:15:20.480
<v Speaker 1>and tomorrow on the show A conversation with journalist Joe

0:15:20.480 --> 0:15:24.480
<v Speaker 1>Aston about the record ninety million dollar fine Quantus has

0:15:24.480 --> 0:15:28.200
<v Speaker 1>to pay and why despite the public relations disaster, the

0:15:28.240 --> 0:15:30.200
<v Speaker 1>airline still came out on top.

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<v Speaker 2>See you that