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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed. The ASX bouncers having its

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Speaker 1: best day in more than two years, though investors worn.

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Speaker 1: The turmoil isn't over yet. Anthony Obneasy and Peter Dutton

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Speaker 1: face off in last night's first debate, and the Commonwealth

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Speaker 1: Bank and Westpac consider removing numbers on debit and credit

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Speaker 1: cards for security reasons. Plus, retail investors flood the market,

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Speaker 1: buying up ETFs and US tech companies, and consumer confidence

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Speaker 1: takes a tumble. Welcome to Fear and Greed daily business

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Speaker 1: news so people who make their own decisions. It is Wednesday,

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Speaker 1: the ninth of April twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson,

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Speaker 1: and good morning Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Morning, Michael.

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Speaker 1: What a week, Sean incredible.

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Speaker 2: Way cracking week to be a journalist.

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Speaker 1: And a cracking week to have launched your daily newsletter.

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Speaker 2: Right, Sean, absolutely cracking week for a newsletter launch.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, so we launched our daily newsletter. We took our

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Speaker 1: weekly one and we made it daily, every single weekday.

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Speaker 1: Head along to Fearangreed dot com dot au if you

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Speaker 1: have not yet signed up, and every morning by six

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Speaker 1: o'clock you get a short summary of all the business

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Speaker 1: news you need for a successful day, and a few

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Speaker 1: other bits and pieces as well shown, but the main

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Speaker 1: story this morning, the big story today. Share markets recovered yesterday,

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Speaker 1: including the ASX, with tech and energy companies surging. Their

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Speaker 1: investors warned that the turmoil, well it just it isn't

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Speaker 1: over yet right now.

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Speaker 2: I think we can call it a bit of a

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Speaker 2: breathy yesterday. Investors are still grappling with the tariff war.

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Speaker 2: What that means for company's earnings, It's probably better than

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Speaker 2: a breather. The SMPA six two hundred rows more than

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Speaker 2: two percent. The best day since November twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 2: Mind you, came after three horror days. The market was

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Speaker 2: driven by those sectors you mentioned, Michael, tech, energy in particular,

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Speaker 2: plus the big banks and the mining companies. It is

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Speaker 2: still down almost five from just before when Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: announced widespread tariffs, even though it went up two point

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Speaker 2: three percent yesterday. Close to ninety percent of stocks were

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Speaker 2: up yesterday, helping sentiment big time. Higher expectations that the

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Speaker 2: Reserve Bank will cut rates when it bored when it's

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Speaker 2: board meets in May. Some are calling for a fifty

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Speaker 2: basis point reduction. It is quite remarkable how quickly the

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Speaker 2: mood has shifted to will they waitn't they to they will?

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Speaker 2: We haven't heard from the Reserve Bank, of course on

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Speaker 2: that one. The Aussie dollar also appreciated against the Green Bank,

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Speaker 2: reaching sixteen and a half US since oil prices came

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Speaker 2: off their recent loaders on all prices, though they continued

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Speaker 2: to fall. No one though, is saying it's all over.

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Speaker 2: There's something called the volatility index, the VIX index. It

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Speaker 2: is trading at the levels forty five. That's extremely high.

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Speaker 2: That just suggests there's going to be a very very

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Speaker 2: bumpy road ahead. Way too much uncertainty around US policy

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Speaker 2: on tariffs and the prospects of even higher imposs Michael.

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Speaker 1: Well, the thing is here shown global trade tensions are

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Speaker 1: not improving at all, particularly between China and the US.

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Speaker 1: Beijing yesterday was vowing to think what was the quote

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Speaker 1: fight to the end amid escalating trade tensions between These

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Speaker 1: are the world's two biggest economies and they are at

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Speaker 1: each other's throat.

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Speaker 2: So in the last week we started with the Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump tariffs. He put thirty four percent on China on

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Speaker 2: top of the twenty percent that were already there fifty

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Speaker 2: four percent on Chinese goods entering the US. Beijing retaliated,

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Speaker 2: reporting thirty four percent tariffs on US goods into China.

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Speaker 2: That triggered Donald Well, got triggered Donald Trump. Don't know

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Speaker 2: where that's right way of putting it. That was reason

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Speaker 2: for Donald Trump to then come out and say, well,

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Speaker 2: I'm going to put another fifty percent tariff on Chinese

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Speaker 2: exports to the US. There was a statement from the

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Speaker 2: Shinwan News Agency or quote it, the US threat to

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Speaker 2: escalate tariffs is doubling down on its mistakes, once again

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Speaker 2: exposing its nature of coercion. China firmly rejects this. If

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Speaker 2: the US persists in its course, China will resolutely respond

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Speaker 2: with countermeasures to the end. So we have the two

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Speaker 2: of them at each other. There was a suggestion that

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Speaker 2: the tariffs which are due to kicking tonight could be

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Speaker 2: paused for ninety days, but the White House said no.

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Speaker 2: The only good news amongst this really is that the

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Speaker 2: US has started talking to trading partners about reducing tariffs.

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Speaker 2: So there were reports yesterday that suggested Japan and Israel

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Speaker 2: would get priority in trade talks. Australia is actually in

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Speaker 2: a bit of a bind on this one because the government,

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Speaker 2: of course, is in caretaker mode and it can't really

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Speaker 2: do much. The government can't govern as such, it can't

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Speaker 2: do unless there's a national emergency. I don't think he

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Speaker 2: can do much at all. So it's not like they

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Speaker 2: can be reaching out to Washington. And I think it

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Speaker 2: was Mark Butler yesterday, the senior Cabinet minister, saying that

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Speaker 2: you know, we hadn't been in touch with the White

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Speaker 2: House since we went into caretaker mates, since our people

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Speaker 2: went into caretaking made so we're in a bit of

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Speaker 2: a bind on that one.

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Speaker 1: Oh, the timing is terrible and we've got them until

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Speaker 1: May three and then however long it takes to count

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Speaker 1: the votes afterwards, and if we end up with potentially

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Speaker 1: minority government negotiation periods, we could be looking at weeks

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Speaker 1: and weeks and weeks of uncertainty before negotiations even begin

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Speaker 1: between Australia and the US.

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Speaker 2: Yes we could, Michael, we could.

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Speaker 1: So I don't mean to speculate worst case scenarios here.

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Speaker 1: Sean retail traders, how about this. They've been playing the

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Speaker 1: share market in recent sessions, with investing platforms reporting record

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Speaker 1: trading volumes.

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Speaker 2: By the dip the saying gays, and it seems that's

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Speaker 2: exactly what retail investors are trying to do. At least

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Speaker 2: they were on Thursday and Friday of last week and

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Speaker 2: Monday of this week. Now in each of those days,

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Speaker 2: Yes and PA six two hundred fell sharply. The big

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Speaker 2: American text, global ets and gold are amongst the most

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Speaker 2: popular assets according to the Finn Review. Woodside, BHP and

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Speaker 2: some of the big banks have also found plenty of friends.

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Speaker 2: On Monday, NAB Trade marked its biggest trading day ever,

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Speaker 2: with volumes surpassing the highest activity day during the pandemic

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Speaker 2: by about ten percent.

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Speaker 1: Immediately after the show seawan very topical interview today, you're

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Speaker 1: speaking with Sam Kosh from Wilson Asset Management.

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Speaker 2: So Sam looks at after small caps for Wilson Asset Management.

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Speaker 2: He talks about the opportunities that comes with this sort

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Speaker 2: of dislocation that's going on, and in fact, he gives

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Speaker 2: us three options, which you'll have to listen to the

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Speaker 2: interview here what they are and reasons why those three

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Speaker 2: in they're sort of domestic focused rather than globally focused.

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Speaker 2: Why those three stocks offer opportunities for investors.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so good chat it is coming up after the show.

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Speaker 1: Stick around for that one now before we leave tariff's

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Speaker 1: behind Sean as if we ever could really A leading

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Speaker 1: US Republican Senator John Barrasso has singled out Canberra for

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Speaker 1: its treatment of US beef, arguing that America has been

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Speaker 1: unable to sell a single hamburger in Australia.

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Speaker 2: Speaking on Fox News, the second ranking Senate Republican launched

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Speaker 2: a strong defense of Trump's trade agenda in hit out

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Speaker 2: non tariff barriers in Australia, which he said panelized cattle

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Speaker 2: producers in his home state of Wyoming, Big cattle state Wyoming.

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Speaker 2: He said, and I quote, Australia sold twenty nine billion

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Speaker 2: US dollars worth of beef in the United States, and

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Speaker 2: we haven't been able to sell one hamburger in Australia

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Speaker 2: because of barriers. For the record, for you, Michael, our listeners,

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Speaker 2: and also for John Barrasso, for the record, US beef

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Speaker 2: isn't banned in Australia. We haven't actually imported any since

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Speaker 2: two thousand and five. Restrictions were put on in two

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Speaker 2: thousand and three, soon after the outbreak of mad cow

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Speaker 2: disease in that country. We haven't imported anything two thousand

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Speaker 2: and five. However, the Federal Department of Agriculture says the

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Speaker 2: US does have access to our markets, providing it can

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Speaker 2: prove the beef comes from cattle born, raised, and slaughtered

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Speaker 2: in the US. There you go on the record, now, Sean,

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Speaker 2: on the record. Maybe it's just like a cost thing.

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Speaker 1: Maybe. All right, We've got a lot more still to

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Speaker 1: get through today, Sean. We'll be back in a moment

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Speaker 1: with the rest of the day's business news.

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Speaker 2: Sean.

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Speaker 1: The two political party leaders faced off last night in

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Speaker 1: the first debate, with no clear cut winner. Got to say,

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Speaker 1: it was a fairly tame affair. Really, I don't know

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Speaker 1: what I was expecting, but I didn't get it. Whatever

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Speaker 1: I wanted, it wasn't there The economy, healthcare, energy, costs,

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Speaker 1: they all took center stage.

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Speaker 2: Yes, there questions on handling Donald Trump, funding for public

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Speaker 2: education and universities, immigration. It took seventeen minutes before we

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Speaker 2: really got the cost of living issues, tax cuts, fuel excise,

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Speaker 2: pharmaceutical benefits, healthcare plenty. On all that, the gards and

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Speaker 2: conflict was discussed, and there seemed to be a lot

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Speaker 2: of discussion on how much government spend or should spend,

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Speaker 2: or we're going to spend but didn't spend, but wasn't

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Speaker 2: the budget, but then changed and wasn't in the budget.

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Speaker 2: It all got to be confusing. Plenty of discussion abound energy,

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Speaker 2: I would say, gas, nuclear, renewables, the economy, and healthcare.

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Speaker 2: Those sort of three things economy, energy, healthcare, three main

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Speaker 2: points I would say. They answered question. Peter Dutton and

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Speaker 2: Anthony Abernezi answered questions from one hundred undercided voters in

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Speaker 2: Western Sydney. The debate was hosted by Sky News and

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Speaker 2: The Daily Telegraph. In some ways I thought Dunton presented

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Speaker 2: better to begin with, but he just didn't seem to

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Speaker 2: have as much detail a grasp of detail as Anthony

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Speaker 2: aber Anthony Aberneze certainly warmed up. I've got to say

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Speaker 2: neither of them are super impressive debaters. I thought it

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Speaker 2: was kind of interesting how Peter Dutton called the Prime

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Speaker 2: Minister Anthony the whole time, rather than Miss j Albanesi

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Speaker 2: or the Prime Minister. It's sort of diminishous gravitas a bit.

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Speaker 2: You know, there was a point there where the questions

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Speaker 2: were calling them Anthony and Peter. I think it was

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Speaker 2: aedible how well behaved they were. I mean, compared to

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Speaker 2: the US debates, the great Joe Biden verse Donald Trump,

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Speaker 2: where it came down to who's got the best golf swing?

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Speaker 1: That was one for the ages. Though I don't think

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Speaker 1: it is unfair of us to ever compare anything to

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Speaker 1: that debate, because that is just one that I don't

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Speaker 1: think we'll ever forget.

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Speaker 2: No, No, it was just slightly humorless. I mean, I

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Speaker 2: think that's probably how i'd put it. No clear cut winner.

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Speaker 2: It probably depends on which side of the fence you

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Speaker 2: sit on this morning, depending on which media out that

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Speaker 2: you're going to suggest, or which commentator you're going to

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Speaker 2: listen to suggests who won that debate. I think it's

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Speaker 2: fair to say they both were fine, but not much more.

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Speaker 1: Sean consumer confidence in Australia has taken to tumble amid

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Speaker 1: the tariff wall, with sentiment falling sharply this month. It

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Speaker 1: has to raised six months of gains.

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Speaker 2: Sentiment trained up throughout last year Michael, thanks to the

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Speaker 2: Reserve Bank pivoting to easing interest rates, fiscal support from

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Speaker 2: governments of all varieties. Also, the jobs market was pretty strong.

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Speaker 2: That's according to the Westpac Melbourne Institute Survey. However, the

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Speaker 2: recent US tariff increases and large falls and share markets

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Speaker 2: have dampened the mood, with those surveyed following the Liberation

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Speaker 2: Day announcement reporting a sentiment reading of just eighty seven percent.

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Speaker 2: That's down about ten percent versus March. Now, business confidence

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Speaker 2: is also negative according to the National Australia Bank Survey.

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Speaker 2: Mind you, this survey was taken before the tariff announcement.

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Speaker 2: Business conditions are largely unchanged but have continued to soften

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Speaker 2: throughout the year. Business confidence and conditions have lagged consumer

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Speaker 2: sentiment in this particular cycle. Now, the positive views is

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Speaker 2: that the National Australia Bank Survey suggests overall inflation pressures

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Speaker 2: continue to ease consumer and business confidence. All important, Michael,

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Speaker 2: because you know, the happier people are, the more they spend,

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Speaker 2: the more they invest.

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Speaker 1: Sean this next story it might need some explaining. I

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Speaker 1: mentioned it at the top of the show. Commonwealth Bank

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Speaker 1: and Westpacker considering removing the sixteen digit numbers from their

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Speaker 1: credit and debit cards. It's a move that master Card

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Speaker 1: argues will reduce fraud by preventing criminal hackers from stealing

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Speaker 1: card details, but I don't know about you. When I'm

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Speaker 1: buying something online, I know it's all digital. I will

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Speaker 1: still sit there with my card and type out the number,

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Speaker 1: make sure I got it exactly right, the physical card

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Speaker 1: in front of me. So how would I date.

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Speaker 2: You du to electronically? Doesn't it say Apple pay or

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Speaker 2: Google pay or and you just double click.

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Speaker 1: It always then asks me for the CVC CCV yeah

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Speaker 1: number on the big game, and I need to go

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Speaker 1: and find the card, and so it's just it's just

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Speaker 1: easy to do it all now.

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Speaker 2: Nowadays you just go online and that's CBC and it's

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Speaker 2: a much better option because it changes every twenty four

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Speaker 2: hours depending on your bank, and so that's much safer.

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Speaker 2: What you're saying is actually what you're saying is actually

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Speaker 2: the big argument against removing the sixteen digit numbers now.

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Speaker 2: According to reporting the fin review, master Card, which works

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Speaker 2: with Commonwealth Bank and Westpac and dozens of smaller banks,

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Speaker 2: or at least a five year strategic plan, this week,

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Speaker 2: said numberless cards would be accompanied by a new biometric

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Speaker 2: checkout process known as click to Pay. It involves online

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Speaker 2: payments being confirmed with an email address linked to a

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Speaker 2: user's biometric data rather than a card number. Now, master

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Speaker 2: Card said customers with numberless cards will still be able

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Speaker 2: to generate a one time number for a specific transaction

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Speaker 2: if a website requires it from the bank's app. Australian

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Speaker 2: credit card numbers are considered more valuable by criminals than

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Speaker 2: many other countries because credit card limbs in Australia are actually,

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Speaker 2: or typically they're higher than other So if they can

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Speaker 2: break into your credit card in Australia, they can end

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Speaker 2: up with more money, unless the Aussie dollars are about

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Speaker 2: sixty US cents, which it is at the moment. Anyway,

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Speaker 2: Australian numbers sell for a premium on the dark web.

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Speaker 2: I'm digressing all over the place. But the idea is

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Speaker 2: to actually move to a so you don't have those

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Speaker 2: sixteen digits and the use by datat cetera showing on

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Speaker 2: the card.

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Speaker 1: It does make sense. I just it's just going to

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Speaker 1: take me time to adjust, Sean, That's all. I was

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Speaker 1: stuck in my ways. I'm a creature of habit. How

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Speaker 1: about this US casino giant Bally's Corps, which we've talked

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Speaker 1: about a lot in the last few days. It says

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Speaker 1: it's three hundred million dollar buyout of Star Entertainment will

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Speaker 1: allow the business to regain its position as quote Australia's

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Speaker 1: pre eminent gaming destination.

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Speaker 2: Balley's will take a fifty seven percent equity stake in Star.

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Speaker 2: As part of the deal, it saved Star from financial

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Speaker 2: collaps I would say. Balis says it will invest in

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Speaker 2: and partner with the Star as it applies its proven

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Speaker 2: track record of revitalizing underperforming casino businesses. It's chair so

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Speaker 2: Kim was around the place yesterday. He said that the

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Speaker 2: transaction provides the company with a not well his company

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Speaker 2: bellies with an opportunity to infuse the Star with what

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Speaker 2: it needs to gain its position in the Australian gaming market.

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Speaker 2: He didn't mince his words, Michael, I think.

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Speaker 1: He went further than that, Sean. He hammered the executives

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Speaker 1: of the company that they are they taking out? What

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Speaker 1: did you say that? This was a quote from the

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Speaker 1: interview that he did with the Finn where he said

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Speaker 1: the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over

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Speaker 1: and over again and expecting a different result. We need

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Speaker 1: to put different executives in there. This particular mix of

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Speaker 1: executives have generated poor operating performance. So alrighty if you

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Speaker 1: were one of those executives like yeah, okay, all right,

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Speaker 1: that might be the case, but didn't need to say

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Speaker 1: it so publiclys I know, ouch, didn't miss no, Sean

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Speaker 1: turning to international news. Now, Iran and the US are

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Speaker 1: holding high level direct talks over the Middle Eastern country's

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Speaker 1: nuclear program.

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Speaker 2: Iran and US, they're not mates. They're not close, mind you.

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Speaker 2: Who is close to the US nowadays? That's right, that's

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Speaker 2: probably too serious the story to be making jokes about US.

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Speaker 2: President Donald Trump said that the two had a very

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Speaker 2: big meeting coming up on Saturday. He said that the

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Speaker 2: US is dealing with them directly at a high level.

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Speaker 2: He made the comments following a meeting with Benjamin Nett Yahoo,

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Speaker 2: the Israeli Prime Minister. Now, Donald Trump has previously said

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Speaker 2: that while a diplomatic solution to the Iran nuclear problem

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Speaker 2: is preferable, military means are still on the table.

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Speaker 1: Final one for you, Sean. The Volkswagen Group has responded

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Speaker 1: to President Donald Trump's vehicle tariffs in the US by

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Speaker 1: suspending imports of Audi vehicles.

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Speaker 2: VW is the world's second largest car company, owns a

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Speaker 2: bunch of brands including Audi, Porsche, Bentley, Skater, Lamborghini. A

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Speaker 2: bulletin sent to Audi dealers in the US says that

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Speaker 2: the Auto giant is holding back cars that arrived in

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Speaker 2: U sports after April two. According to The Australian, the

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Speaker 2: manufacturer has about two month supplies of vehicles with dealers

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Speaker 2: in the US now. This comes after Britain's Jaguar land

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Speaker 2: Rover suspended exports to the US, instituting a short term pause.

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Speaker 2: Nissen has stopped taking orders for Infinity's SUV vehicles made

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Speaker 2: in Mexico. Solantis owns Jeep, and Dodge suspended production at

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Speaker 2: a Canadian planned on the border with the US. These

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Speaker 2: are real life impacts of these tariff changes, all right.

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Speaker 1: Up next is the Fear and Greed Daily Interview. Your

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Speaker 1: guest today, Sam Kosh from Wilson Asset Management and Don't forget.

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Speaker 1: Head along to Fear and Greed dot com dot a

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Speaker 1: U and sign up for the free daily newsletter Sean.

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Speaker 1: One of the stories that we take a quick look

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Speaker 1: at in the newsletter today about, of all things, the

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Speaker 1: Minecraft movie that opened just a few days ago. It

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Speaker 1: had a stellar opening weekend three hundred and one million

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Speaker 1: US dollars it made worldwide, and I was reading that, Okay,

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Speaker 1: it broke. It set a new record for a movie

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Speaker 1: based on a video game. But I thought, that's got

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Speaker 1: to put it up there in the top ten or so.

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Speaker 1: It wasn't in the top ten, it's not in the

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Speaker 1: top twenty. It's not even in the top thirty or forty.

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Speaker 1: It comes in at number forty three or something. The

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Speaker 1: numbers in some of these big films in recent years

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Speaker 1: are staggering. So I put a bit of a table

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Speaker 1: together of some of the top performers just as a

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Speaker 1: bit of light relief in today's newsletter. So if you

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Speaker 1: haven't signed up already, head along to the website and

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Speaker 1: do so. Thank you very much, Sean, Thank you, Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Wednesday, the ninth of April twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us

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Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, ex TikTok, and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson.

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Speaker 1: And that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.