1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:02,719 Speaker 1: This podcast was recorded on the land of the Gatigel 2 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:10,080 Speaker 1: people of the Eur Nation. Hello and welcome to the 3 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,640 Speaker 1: Real Story with Joe Hildebrand. And I've got to stop 4 00:00:13,640 --> 00:00:16,239 Speaker 1: there because my best mate in Melbourne says, every time 5 00:00:16,280 --> 00:00:19,480 Speaker 1: I introduce the show, it sounds like I'm introducing play school. 6 00:00:22,040 --> 00:00:26,159 Speaker 1: There's a bed there, So what do you want me 7 00:00:26,200 --> 00:00:31,080 Speaker 1: to say? What up? Dog? Here's the down low the 8 00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:36,040 Speaker 1: DL on the RS with jh. Anyway, great to have 9 00:00:36,080 --> 00:00:38,680 Speaker 1: your company. Absolutely huge week. I've got the election date 10 00:00:38,720 --> 00:00:42,680 Speaker 1: for you, I think definitely maybe this time. Plus what 11 00:00:42,800 --> 00:00:46,320 Speaker 1: is going on with these artists who are doing kind 12 00:00:46,360 --> 00:00:50,440 Speaker 1: of pro terrorists artwork or sympathetic terrorist artwork on maybe 13 00:00:50,440 --> 00:00:54,680 Speaker 1: it's just art, maybe it's just controversial. And and we've 14 00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:56,840 Speaker 1: also got a bit of a breakdown of how the 15 00:00:56,880 --> 00:00:59,200 Speaker 1: election is going to play out. What does the interest 16 00:00:59,240 --> 00:01:02,440 Speaker 1: rate cut this week mean? And what is going on 17 00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:06,920 Speaker 1: in the Ukraine? Is a World War three again? Donald 18 00:01:06,959 --> 00:01:10,600 Speaker 1: Trump has just weighed in, is having meetings with Vladimir 19 00:01:10,720 --> 00:01:14,160 Speaker 1: Putin about Ukraine and the only thing missing in these 20 00:01:14,200 --> 00:01:19,360 Speaker 1: meetings is Ukraine because they weren't invited in selling their 21 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:33,160 Speaker 1: country whatever. All that much much more coming up. So 22 00:01:33,280 --> 00:01:35,640 Speaker 1: the first thing I want to get into this week 23 00:01:35,880 --> 00:01:38,679 Speaker 1: is something a little birdie told me, and it seems 24 00:01:38,680 --> 00:01:41,440 Speaker 1: to be doing the rounds, and that is the date 25 00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:45,120 Speaker 1: of the election. Now, there had been a bit of 26 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:50,120 Speaker 1: money firming around April twelve, and the argument there was 27 00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:54,480 Speaker 1: that it was early enough so that you would avoid 28 00:01:54,680 --> 00:01:58,640 Speaker 1: having to hand down the budget. So the government has 29 00:01:58,640 --> 00:02:01,320 Speaker 1: called this special budget for the end of March, which 30 00:02:01,360 --> 00:02:03,160 Speaker 1: obviously so they could get out of the way before 31 00:02:03,200 --> 00:02:04,840 Speaker 1: the election. But then, of course they realized it was 32 00:02:04,840 --> 00:02:06,480 Speaker 1: going to be a deficit, so suddenly they didn't want 33 00:02:06,480 --> 00:02:07,800 Speaker 1: to get it out of the way before the election, 34 00:02:08,200 --> 00:02:11,600 Speaker 1: and they realized they could call an election and therefore 35 00:02:11,639 --> 00:02:14,400 Speaker 1: not have to hand down a budget because the government 36 00:02:14,400 --> 00:02:16,840 Speaker 1: would be in caretaker mode, and so instead of actually 37 00:02:16,919 --> 00:02:20,560 Speaker 1: handing down a deficit, they can just announce shiteloads of 38 00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:23,520 Speaker 1: money to spend in every marginal electric they feel like, 39 00:02:23,720 --> 00:02:27,440 Speaker 1: with basically no scrutiny whatsoever, although they release the costings 40 00:02:27,520 --> 00:02:30,359 Speaker 1: usually at about midnight on the Friday night before election day. 41 00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:33,080 Speaker 1: So that'll be nice too, So well played. That's great. 42 00:02:33,120 --> 00:02:38,080 Speaker 1: That made April twelve and no later the very firm favorite. 43 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:43,440 Speaker 1: But there is a catch. Somebody went hang on a minute. 44 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:49,239 Speaker 1: That's the first day of Passover. And I don't know 45 00:02:49,280 --> 00:02:53,800 Speaker 1: if you've been watching the news much recently. The Jewish 46 00:02:53,840 --> 00:02:56,680 Speaker 1: community's a bit upset about a few things at the moment, 47 00:02:56,760 --> 00:03:00,800 Speaker 1: and they're not too happy with the Albert the Labor government. 48 00:03:00,840 --> 00:03:03,600 Speaker 1: They reckon maybe could be doing a little bit more 49 00:03:03,680 --> 00:03:07,200 Speaker 1: on the old anti Semitism, stop the fire bombing kind 50 00:03:07,240 --> 00:03:12,600 Speaker 1: of front. And so a very bright spark has realized. 51 00:03:12,639 --> 00:03:15,120 Speaker 1: And maybe it's the PM himself in all his infant wisdom, 52 00:03:15,120 --> 00:03:19,520 Speaker 1: because he's a smart guy. Anyway, they've realized, hang on 53 00:03:19,560 --> 00:03:24,480 Speaker 1: a minute, we don't want to antagonize the Jewish community anymore. 54 00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:27,520 Speaker 1: They've kind of had enough. Probably, you know, they've got 55 00:03:27,520 --> 00:03:30,120 Speaker 1: a couple of nurses who are saying that if any 56 00:03:30,240 --> 00:03:32,760 Speaker 1: Israelis rock up in Bangs Down Hospital, they're going to 57 00:03:32,800 --> 00:03:35,680 Speaker 1: go under. So, you know, probably let them have their 58 00:03:35,720 --> 00:03:41,160 Speaker 1: pass over unmolested by an election. So the idea is, 59 00:03:41,200 --> 00:03:42,880 Speaker 1: you get all out of the way before then you 60 00:03:42,920 --> 00:03:45,920 Speaker 1: have it on April the fifth, the Saturday before. So 61 00:03:46,080 --> 00:03:49,760 Speaker 1: April five is the day. Circle it and red on 62 00:03:49,800 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 1: your calendars or whatever your little millennials do. Put it 63 00:03:52,480 --> 00:03:57,000 Speaker 1: in your outlook. April five looks to be the day 64 00:03:57,040 --> 00:03:59,600 Speaker 1: that we go to the polls, and that will avoid 65 00:04:00,000 --> 00:04:04,720 Speaker 1: the necessity for having to hand down that early budget, 66 00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:07,920 Speaker 1: which would be the first deficit that the government's had 67 00:04:07,920 --> 00:04:10,720 Speaker 1: to deliver. It got two very lucky surpluses, good on them. 68 00:04:11,200 --> 00:04:13,960 Speaker 1: And it would also avoid the PM having to go 69 00:04:14,040 --> 00:04:17,719 Speaker 1: back to Parliament, which you don't want to do unless 70 00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:20,919 Speaker 1: you really really have to. And it also means that 71 00:04:21,600 --> 00:04:23,760 Speaker 1: they can just basically get the whole thing. I mean, 72 00:04:23,760 --> 00:04:26,400 Speaker 1: everyone's on election footing anyway, Get it done, get it 73 00:04:26,400 --> 00:04:29,159 Speaker 1: out of the way, throw the money out there and 74 00:04:29,839 --> 00:04:33,000 Speaker 1: fight what is going to be this kind of seat 75 00:04:33,040 --> 00:04:36,839 Speaker 1: by seat call it almost urban guerrilla warfare kind of 76 00:04:36,880 --> 00:04:41,000 Speaker 1: campaign where they're just going to be going healthful leather 77 00:04:41,760 --> 00:04:44,520 Speaker 1: in a few key seats and a few surprise seats 78 00:04:44,520 --> 00:04:46,840 Speaker 1: I'm going to talk to you about very shortly, and 79 00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:49,880 Speaker 1: just sort of try to just pull together what will 80 00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:54,120 Speaker 1: probably be a very scrappy and a very messy but 81 00:04:54,200 --> 00:04:59,599 Speaker 1: who cares if you get there? Minority government. Now the 82 00:04:59,640 --> 00:05:02,159 Speaker 1: state of play at the moment, and this is where 83 00:05:02,800 --> 00:05:05,919 Speaker 1: incumbency being the government is just such a huge advantage. 84 00:05:05,920 --> 00:05:09,000 Speaker 1: Not only do you get to determine the election timing 85 00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:12,000 Speaker 1: at a federal level. All the states have fixed terms, 86 00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:16,560 Speaker 1: but not the Feds. But you also have this wall, 87 00:05:16,640 --> 00:05:20,320 Speaker 1: this red wall, as they say, of seats that the 88 00:05:20,400 --> 00:05:25,640 Speaker 1: coalition and the opposition has to climb into. And again 89 00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:28,000 Speaker 1: it's a bit like we're talking about war here. It 90 00:05:28,120 --> 00:05:31,200 Speaker 1: is much easier to defend than it is to attack. 91 00:05:31,279 --> 00:05:34,120 Speaker 1: If you are sitting up there in your citadel and 92 00:05:34,160 --> 00:05:37,880 Speaker 1: you're just firing your arrows down at the soldiers camp below, 93 00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:43,600 Speaker 1: you are in a much better position than however, many people, 94 00:05:44,120 --> 00:05:46,680 Speaker 1: however far ahead these soldiers are in the poles. I'm 95 00:05:46,680 --> 00:05:49,159 Speaker 1: really mixing my metaphors, but you know, you get my drift. 96 00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:52,520 Speaker 1: However well armed they are, however many of them, they are, 97 00:05:52,640 --> 00:05:55,200 Speaker 1: however good the strategy, however much they've got God or 98 00:05:55,240 --> 00:05:57,400 Speaker 1: the people or whatever it is on their side. If 99 00:05:57,400 --> 00:05:59,840 Speaker 1: you're sitting there and you are the one that needs 100 00:05:59,880 --> 00:06:03,000 Speaker 1: to be beaten, you have got all the armaments around you, 101 00:06:04,160 --> 00:06:06,800 Speaker 1: then that is just a huge advantage. And I was 102 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:10,000 Speaker 1: having a look at the pendulum just the other day, 103 00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:12,960 Speaker 1: and we've seen a whole bunch of poles. I think 104 00:06:12,960 --> 00:06:15,760 Speaker 1: three polls this week alone that shay the government's in 105 00:06:15,880 --> 00:06:18,920 Speaker 1: all sorts of trouble. You know, fifty one forty nine. 106 00:06:19,320 --> 00:06:22,920 Speaker 1: You know the primary votes down below thirty percent for Labor. 107 00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:26,039 Speaker 1: All these things are true, and the government really does 108 00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:29,599 Speaker 1: have the fight of its life on its hands. But 109 00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:31,760 Speaker 1: let's just have a look at a couple of the stats. 110 00:06:31,800 --> 00:06:34,320 Speaker 1: So the news pole that came out today showed again 111 00:06:34,680 --> 00:06:38,240 Speaker 1: fifty one forty nine. That is not insurmountable for a 112 00:06:38,279 --> 00:06:43,359 Speaker 1: government that is defending its first term. And then you 113 00:06:43,360 --> 00:06:45,560 Speaker 1: look at the swing, and so that's a swing of 114 00:06:45,800 --> 00:06:51,520 Speaker 1: about three percent to the coalition. Now that might seem 115 00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:55,200 Speaker 1: like a lot, and you'd certainly rather if you're Anthony 116 00:06:55,240 --> 00:06:58,400 Speaker 1: Alberanezi you have no swing at all. But that is 117 00:06:58,920 --> 00:07:03,400 Speaker 1: less than half, less than half of what the coalition 118 00:07:03,560 --> 00:07:08,120 Speaker 1: needs if it's going to even scrape home to the baarest, tiniest, 119 00:07:08,279 --> 00:07:12,200 Speaker 1: slimmest of majorities. The coalition needs to pick up nineteen 120 00:07:12,320 --> 00:07:15,320 Speaker 1: seats to get to a majority, and that is a 121 00:07:15,400 --> 00:07:18,840 Speaker 1: legacy obviously of the last election where Labor didn't win 122 00:07:18,840 --> 00:07:22,160 Speaker 1: in a landslide, but the Coalition lost in a landslide, 123 00:07:22,600 --> 00:07:28,040 Speaker 1: So the Coalition went down to fifty eight seats, So 124 00:07:28,160 --> 00:07:31,040 Speaker 1: Labor just scraped home with seventy seven that's just two more. 125 00:07:31,520 --> 00:07:36,120 Speaker 1: So seventy six is your outright majority, and they just 126 00:07:36,200 --> 00:07:39,120 Speaker 1: got seventy seven, so it's just one or two more 127 00:07:39,120 --> 00:07:40,640 Speaker 1: because then you've got to put your speaker in. But 128 00:07:41,240 --> 00:07:44,400 Speaker 1: one or two more then they needed to get over 129 00:07:44,400 --> 00:07:50,440 Speaker 1: the line, just a b's appendage. But that didn't mean 130 00:07:50,480 --> 00:07:54,640 Speaker 1: that it was close, because the Coalition took an absolute 131 00:07:55,040 --> 00:07:57,680 Speaker 1: bath and went right down to fifty eight seats. And 132 00:07:57,720 --> 00:07:59,960 Speaker 1: then of course you had that historic aston bio elect 133 00:08:00,320 --> 00:08:05,240 Speaker 1: in suburban Melbourne not long after the election, and Labor 134 00:08:05,360 --> 00:08:08,440 Speaker 1: got a ten percent swing to it. That is the 135 00:08:08,520 --> 00:08:12,440 Speaker 1: first time in a century that you have had a swing, 136 00:08:12,520 --> 00:08:15,520 Speaker 1: let alone a swing that big towards a government in 137 00:08:15,560 --> 00:08:18,000 Speaker 1: a by election. Swings normally always go the other way. 138 00:08:18,000 --> 00:08:19,960 Speaker 1: There's normally a five percent swing against the government. This 139 00:08:20,000 --> 00:08:22,960 Speaker 1: time the government got a ten percent swing towards it. 140 00:08:23,240 --> 00:08:26,920 Speaker 1: So suddenly it's got seventy eight seats and the coalition's 141 00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:30,800 Speaker 1: got just fifty seven. So again the government has a 142 00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:34,160 Speaker 1: tiny majority, but the coalition is so far back, it 143 00:08:34,160 --> 00:08:37,320 Speaker 1: has got so far to go to get within striking 144 00:08:37,360 --> 00:08:41,079 Speaker 1: distance of even its own workable minority. So in other words, 145 00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:44,480 Speaker 1: winning more seats than Labor, so it gets asked to 146 00:08:44,559 --> 00:08:50,000 Speaker 1: form government before Labor Party does, And there's all sorts 147 00:08:50,000 --> 00:08:52,320 Speaker 1: of weird conventions here. So if you are if neither 148 00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:55,840 Speaker 1: party wins a majority, the Governor General will ask one 149 00:08:55,920 --> 00:08:59,400 Speaker 1: of the two parties to form government. Now there's basically 150 00:08:59,440 --> 00:09:02,600 Speaker 1: just convention here. There's no particular hard and fast rule, 151 00:09:02,640 --> 00:09:06,199 Speaker 1: but would usually be the party that won the most seats. 152 00:09:07,240 --> 00:09:10,320 Speaker 1: And in the case of the last one in twenty ten, 153 00:09:10,840 --> 00:09:13,880 Speaker 1: both parties actually won the exact same number of seats 154 00:09:14,360 --> 00:09:17,720 Speaker 1: and seventy two seats each between Julia Yard's Labor and 155 00:09:17,760 --> 00:09:21,400 Speaker 1: Tony Abbott's Coalition, and Julia Gillard got the chance to 156 00:09:21,440 --> 00:09:24,080 Speaker 1: try to form government first because she won the popular 157 00:09:24,160 --> 00:09:28,280 Speaker 1: vote and she was the incumbent government. So again, whichever 158 00:09:28,640 --> 00:09:32,000 Speaker 1: is seen to be the most sort of consistent or 159 00:09:32,040 --> 00:09:36,760 Speaker 1: the most I suppose has the strongest, most small sort 160 00:09:36,760 --> 00:09:41,160 Speaker 1: of conservative basis is usually going to be the party 161 00:09:41,200 --> 00:09:43,640 Speaker 1: that gets to try to form government, that wins the 162 00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:46,040 Speaker 1: most seats, or wins the popular vote, or is the incumbent. 163 00:09:46,920 --> 00:09:50,520 Speaker 1: So again, the coalition the opposition has none of this 164 00:09:50,559 --> 00:09:53,240 Speaker 1: on its side. It's obviously not the incumbent. It's probably 165 00:09:53,280 --> 00:09:56,679 Speaker 1: not going to get to more seats than Labor, and 166 00:09:56,720 --> 00:10:01,440 Speaker 1: it almost certainly cannot possibly get to already in its 167 00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:05,720 Speaker 1: own right. But of course swings are never uniform, and 168 00:10:06,200 --> 00:10:10,520 Speaker 1: so the Coalition could get a uniform swing of three 169 00:10:10,559 --> 00:10:12,800 Speaker 1: percent or an average swing of three percent, but still 170 00:10:12,800 --> 00:10:16,160 Speaker 1: be picking up massive numbers in the seats that it 171 00:10:16,200 --> 00:10:18,280 Speaker 1: needs to win. No, this is rocket science, of course. 172 00:10:18,840 --> 00:10:22,360 Speaker 1: But there's also the chance that Labor could sneak in 173 00:10:22,400 --> 00:10:25,840 Speaker 1: a couple of seats to compensate for the seats that 174 00:10:25,880 --> 00:10:28,439 Speaker 1: it's expected to lose. So if you look at Queensland, 175 00:10:28,480 --> 00:10:30,600 Speaker 1: for example, now most people think, all right, that's a 176 00:10:30,640 --> 00:10:34,720 Speaker 1: done deal. Ironically, because Labor udn't performed there in twenty 177 00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:38,959 Speaker 1: twenty two, doesn't actually have much to lose. It doesn't 178 00:10:39,000 --> 00:10:41,760 Speaker 1: have seats that at won last time round that are 179 00:10:41,760 --> 00:10:44,319 Speaker 1: going to disappear this time round, that are going to 180 00:10:44,360 --> 00:10:48,480 Speaker 1: swing back. But it does have that's just against the Coalition, 181 00:10:48,559 --> 00:10:53,360 Speaker 1: mind you. It does have three seats in Brisbane that 182 00:10:53,480 --> 00:10:56,559 Speaker 1: it lost or failed to win against the Greens. Now 183 00:10:56,559 --> 00:10:59,120 Speaker 1: these were seats that Labor really thought it was going 184 00:10:59,200 --> 00:11:01,880 Speaker 1: to pick up, but the Green snuck in the dirty 185 00:11:01,880 --> 00:11:04,720 Speaker 1: little trots that they are stole them right from under 186 00:11:04,760 --> 00:11:08,040 Speaker 1: Labour's nose. Now this was seat of Ryan which went 187 00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:11,760 Speaker 1: from Liberal to Green, and the seat of Brisbane itself 188 00:11:12,280 --> 00:11:15,120 Speaker 1: as well as the seat of Griffith, Kevin Rudd's old seat, 189 00:11:15,160 --> 00:11:19,240 Speaker 1: a Labor seat that went from Labor to Green in 190 00:11:19,280 --> 00:11:23,160 Speaker 1: an election Labour one and that's the seat of Max Chandler. 191 00:11:23,160 --> 00:11:26,040 Speaker 1: May you have the hyphenated surname and the housing staff 192 00:11:26,040 --> 00:11:28,599 Speaker 1: and everything wants everyone to build more houses except in 193 00:11:28,640 --> 00:11:33,280 Speaker 1: his electorate where he opposes them anyway, So Labour could 194 00:11:33,320 --> 00:11:35,880 Speaker 1: actually pick up two out of three of those seats. 195 00:11:35,960 --> 00:11:38,240 Speaker 1: Ryan would probably go back to the Libs, but Brisbane 196 00:11:38,760 --> 00:11:42,040 Speaker 1: and Griffith may actually get and get back. So that's 197 00:11:42,080 --> 00:11:45,360 Speaker 1: another couple then that the coalition has to offset. Also, 198 00:11:45,520 --> 00:11:48,720 Speaker 1: if you look at South Australia, there's Sturt and Boothby, 199 00:11:48,960 --> 00:11:51,360 Speaker 1: a couple of seats there. Now Boothby they already got, 200 00:11:51,400 --> 00:11:54,160 Speaker 1: Labour already got, could be in all sorts maybe, or 201 00:11:54,200 --> 00:11:56,040 Speaker 1: they might actually hold on to it. The Labor government 202 00:11:56,040 --> 00:11:59,200 Speaker 1: in South Australia is pretty popular. There's not really any 203 00:11:59,240 --> 00:12:02,160 Speaker 1: sense of a massive anti labor backlash. Is there is 204 00:12:02,200 --> 00:12:06,200 Speaker 1: in Victoria and already has been in Queensland and the 205 00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:08,920 Speaker 1: seat of stirt. Now that's a Liberal seat. They only 206 00:12:08,920 --> 00:12:12,640 Speaker 1: hold it zero point five percent, and the candidate who 207 00:12:12,679 --> 00:12:16,840 Speaker 1: took it to that brought it down from seven percent, 208 00:12:16,920 --> 00:12:19,920 Speaker 1: so they got a massive six and a half percent 209 00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:23,040 Speaker 1: swing against Again, this is more than double the three 210 00:12:23,080 --> 00:12:25,280 Speaker 1: percent swing that everyone's saying the coalition's going to get 211 00:12:25,280 --> 00:12:29,120 Speaker 1: at the next election. Last time round she got six 212 00:12:29,200 --> 00:12:31,920 Speaker 1: and a half percent and nearly stole it off the Libs, 213 00:12:31,920 --> 00:12:35,040 Speaker 1: so Labor could sneak that in as well. So already 214 00:12:35,080 --> 00:12:37,560 Speaker 1: that could be another three more that the Libs have 215 00:12:37,679 --> 00:12:42,320 Speaker 1: to win on top of everything else. So I'm still 216 00:12:42,360 --> 00:12:45,240 Speaker 1: reckoning that it's going to be a really tough, tough, 217 00:12:45,280 --> 00:12:49,640 Speaker 1: tough race. But when everyone says, you know, it's all over, 218 00:12:49,840 --> 00:12:51,760 Speaker 1: Peter Dutton's going to be the next Prime minister and 219 00:12:51,840 --> 00:12:53,760 Speaker 1: thin Albini is going to lose, I'll tell you something. 220 00:12:53,920 --> 00:12:58,719 Speaker 1: Last time that happened was almost a century ago. A 221 00:12:58,880 --> 00:13:04,280 Speaker 1: first term government has always been given a second term 222 00:13:04,559 --> 00:13:08,600 Speaker 1: by the Australian electorate every single time they had exception, 223 00:13:08,800 --> 00:13:13,360 Speaker 1: even when the government itself has imploded. And of course 224 00:13:13,400 --> 00:13:15,920 Speaker 1: this has happened in every single one of the last 225 00:13:16,200 --> 00:13:19,840 Speaker 1: what five governments we've had. So Kevin Rudd gets in 226 00:13:19,840 --> 00:13:23,080 Speaker 1: in a landslide in two thousand and seven, the party 227 00:13:23,440 --> 00:13:27,280 Speaker 1: decapitates itself, knocks off its own prime minister, basically first 228 00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:30,520 Speaker 1: time in modern history, and the electorate still gives it 229 00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:33,760 Speaker 1: another shot, still gives it another chance, and Alex Julia 230 00:13:33,760 --> 00:13:36,599 Speaker 1: Gillard in minority, and this next government might look a 231 00:13:36,640 --> 00:13:40,280 Speaker 1: lot like that, minus any deal with the Greens. And 232 00:13:40,320 --> 00:13:42,440 Speaker 1: of course Tony Abbott gets in in a landslide in 233 00:13:42,480 --> 00:13:45,240 Speaker 1: twenty thirteen. What does the Liberal Party do the exact 234 00:13:45,320 --> 00:13:49,600 Speaker 1: same thing, decapitate him, put in Malcolm Turnbull sky high 235 00:13:49,600 --> 00:13:51,760 Speaker 1: approval ratings to start with, and then suddenly it's a 236 00:13:51,840 --> 00:13:54,160 Speaker 1: nail byder. Looks like on election night he might even 237 00:13:54,200 --> 00:13:58,880 Speaker 1: have lost it. But no Australian public. Even when the 238 00:13:58,920 --> 00:14:02,320 Speaker 1: party that's in power says we're so crap, we're going 239 00:14:02,400 --> 00:14:05,319 Speaker 1: to kill ourselves, the Australian voting public says, oh no, 240 00:14:05,480 --> 00:14:07,840 Speaker 1: you don't, We'll give you another shot. And of course 241 00:14:07,840 --> 00:14:09,079 Speaker 1: what do they do to Malcolm do But they do 242 00:14:09,160 --> 00:14:13,280 Speaker 1: it again. They knock over Malcolm Turnbull for Peter Dutton 243 00:14:13,280 --> 00:14:16,400 Speaker 1: and even that doesn't work, and Scott Morrison comes up 244 00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:18,640 Speaker 1: through the middle, up the guts as the honey Badger 245 00:14:18,640 --> 00:14:22,080 Speaker 1: would say, he takes over as prime minister. So again 246 00:14:22,120 --> 00:14:24,640 Speaker 1: the party is even more shambal like it's destroyed itself 247 00:14:24,840 --> 00:14:28,360 Speaker 1: not once, not twice, but kind of three times, because 248 00:14:28,400 --> 00:14:31,200 Speaker 1: the person who was meant to destroy itself even the 249 00:14:31,200 --> 00:14:33,800 Speaker 1: third time didn't even end up getting the job that 250 00:14:33,840 --> 00:14:35,520 Speaker 1: the people who were trying to destroy the prime minister 251 00:14:35,560 --> 00:14:37,640 Speaker 1: were trying to give him. Does that make sense. They 252 00:14:37,640 --> 00:14:40,640 Speaker 1: couldn't even kill the prime minister properly and the guy 253 00:14:40,640 --> 00:14:42,560 Speaker 1: they weren't going to replace him with ends up being 254 00:14:42,600 --> 00:14:45,200 Speaker 1: replaced and they go, oh, well that'll do anyway, no worries. 255 00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:48,200 Speaker 1: And what happens then then they think that's twenty nineteen. 256 00:14:48,280 --> 00:14:51,280 Speaker 1: That is the unlosable election. There no way the Liberal 257 00:14:51,320 --> 00:14:54,360 Speaker 1: Party is a laughings dog. It is a joke. What 258 00:14:54,440 --> 00:14:57,960 Speaker 1: happens Australian public says, ah, have another crack at it, 259 00:14:58,360 --> 00:15:01,320 Speaker 1: see if you get it right this time. And he 260 00:15:01,400 --> 00:15:05,240 Speaker 1: gets it, and he gets it, Scott Morrison wins. He 261 00:15:05,360 --> 00:15:07,400 Speaker 1: declares it an actual miracle, and it might as well 262 00:15:07,440 --> 00:15:11,560 Speaker 1: have been, because little short of divine intervention could have 263 00:15:11,640 --> 00:15:16,360 Speaker 1: delivered that result. And now here we are down thing beneathy. Look, 264 00:15:16,360 --> 00:15:18,280 Speaker 1: there's the cost of living crisis going on. Times are 265 00:15:18,320 --> 00:15:21,640 Speaker 1: pretty tough. We've just had a rate cut, everyone's got 266 00:15:21,640 --> 00:15:24,640 Speaker 1: a tax cut. Things seem to be turning the corner. 267 00:15:24,640 --> 00:15:26,920 Speaker 1: You got low inflation, it's come right back down to 268 00:15:27,000 --> 00:15:30,120 Speaker 1: about three percent, depending on which measure you measured on 269 00:15:30,800 --> 00:15:34,000 Speaker 1: low unemployment. Things are getting better. And people say, oh, 270 00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:36,640 Speaker 1: now it's a one term government. Well, when was the 271 00:15:36,720 --> 00:15:39,480 Speaker 1: last time we had a one term government in Australia. 272 00:15:39,480 --> 00:15:42,120 Speaker 1: I'll tell you the last time a one term government 273 00:15:42,640 --> 00:15:45,280 Speaker 1: got voted out in Australia was nineteen thirty one, and 274 00:15:45,280 --> 00:15:50,440 Speaker 1: it was the Labor government of James Scullen and that 275 00:15:50,600 --> 00:15:56,520 Speaker 1: was in the middle of the Great Depression. Now again, 276 00:15:56,640 --> 00:15:59,760 Speaker 1: I know times are tough, but I'm not quite sure 277 00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:03,960 Speaker 1: we are walking the hungry mile just yet. And again 278 00:16:04,600 --> 00:16:07,000 Speaker 1: I know things really, I know people are literally going 279 00:16:07,080 --> 00:16:09,360 Speaker 1: hungry and struggling to put food on the table. But 280 00:16:09,400 --> 00:16:11,720 Speaker 1: we have turned that corner. We are not in an 281 00:16:11,760 --> 00:16:15,800 Speaker 1: era of thirty percent unemployment. And that was in the 282 00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:18,040 Speaker 1: middle of the Great Depression nineteen thirty one, where the 283 00:16:18,080 --> 00:16:20,200 Speaker 1: Labor Party itself was imploding and I think his own 284 00:16:20,240 --> 00:16:23,880 Speaker 1: treasurer left, abandoned the party, split the party to go 285 00:16:23,960 --> 00:16:28,400 Speaker 1: and form the United Australia Party. And so that is 286 00:16:28,440 --> 00:16:31,160 Speaker 1: what it takes. A crisis of that intensity is what 287 00:16:31,200 --> 00:16:36,320 Speaker 1: it takes to reduce someone to a one term government 288 00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:42,120 Speaker 1: in Australia. So if you're a labor supporter or you're 289 00:16:42,120 --> 00:16:45,240 Speaker 1: worried about Paul Little Elbow, don't worry. He's happy. He's 290 00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:47,160 Speaker 1: the only happy guy in Australia. He's loved up, he's 291 00:16:47,200 --> 00:16:48,960 Speaker 1: got a couple of houses, got a beach house if 292 00:16:48,960 --> 00:16:53,280 Speaker 1: he wants it. He's going to get married in the spring. Jeez, 293 00:16:53,320 --> 00:16:54,840 Speaker 1: I wish that guy would just act a bit more 294 00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:58,000 Speaker 1: miserable and worried. Going around smiling all the time anyway, 295 00:16:58,160 --> 00:17:01,400 Speaker 1: can't help it, love him. I think you know it's 296 00:17:01,400 --> 00:17:04,000 Speaker 1: going to go down to the wire that the government 297 00:17:04,040 --> 00:17:05,719 Speaker 1: might just scrape through. But you know what we're going 298 00:17:05,760 --> 00:17:14,119 Speaker 1: to find out on April five. Now, look, Aus, I'm 299 00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:16,119 Speaker 1: sure you will know, and certainly anyone who knows me 300 00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:19,840 Speaker 1: and will know, I'm a very refined gentleman. I'm a 301 00:17:19,920 --> 00:17:24,200 Speaker 1: renaissance man. I'm a patron of the arts. I'm someone 302 00:17:24,200 --> 00:17:27,879 Speaker 1: who both knows a lot about art and knows what 303 00:17:27,920 --> 00:17:31,600 Speaker 1: he likes. And so I took a particular interest in 304 00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:35,040 Speaker 1: the recent selection to the Venice B and R, which 305 00:17:35,119 --> 00:17:41,280 Speaker 1: is the most prestigious arts festival on the globe, and 306 00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:46,399 Speaker 1: we selected an artist called Karled Subsabi. I was surprised 307 00:17:46,400 --> 00:17:48,639 Speaker 1: I hadn't heard of him, because usually I'm all across 308 00:17:48,680 --> 00:17:52,119 Speaker 1: this stuff. You know, you're Michael Angelo's, your Donna Tello's, 309 00:17:52,240 --> 00:17:56,440 Speaker 1: your Leonardo's, your Raphael's, I know at least those four. 310 00:17:57,800 --> 00:18:00,399 Speaker 1: And so I had a bit of a look into 311 00:18:00,760 --> 00:18:04,680 Speaker 1: Subsabi's work. Well I didn't, but you know, some journals did, 312 00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:11,200 Speaker 1: and they found some very strange artworks. One was the 313 00:18:11,320 --> 00:18:16,400 Speaker 1: leader of Hesbela, which is a terrorist organization. Not sure 314 00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:18,080 Speaker 1: if it was when he painted it. Maybe back then 315 00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:21,720 Speaker 1: it was just a freedom fighting organization. Anyway, this sort 316 00:18:21,760 --> 00:18:25,040 Speaker 1: of installation not painting, no one paints anymore. It had 317 00:18:25,119 --> 00:18:30,119 Speaker 1: him with beams of light sort of emanating down on 318 00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:33,800 Speaker 1: his face. He's now X face because he's dead. He's 319 00:18:33,840 --> 00:18:37,800 Speaker 1: an ex parrot, and people say, my on, this is 320 00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:40,120 Speaker 1: lionizing him, this is treating this guy's kind of divine 321 00:18:40,200 --> 00:18:44,640 Speaker 1: or divinely inspired, and he's a terrorist. So that caused 322 00:18:44,680 --> 00:18:49,160 Speaker 1: a little bit of controversy, and then it emerged that 323 00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:54,159 Speaker 1: he done another bit of art video artwork of the 324 00:18:54,200 --> 00:18:56,840 Speaker 1: World Trade Center attacks of nine to eleven. So the 325 00:18:56,880 --> 00:18:59,520 Speaker 1: September eleven terrorist attacks you might remember them, started the 326 00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:02,320 Speaker 1: war on terror? Are three thousand people dead? You know? 327 00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:06,120 Speaker 1: Not many people liked that. Not many people thought nine 328 00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:12,120 Speaker 1: to eleven was a good idea. However, this video artwork 329 00:19:12,560 --> 00:19:16,400 Speaker 1: had the planes flying into the World Trade Center towers 330 00:19:16,560 --> 00:19:20,600 Speaker 1: on September eleventh, two thousand and one, and then cut 331 00:19:20,600 --> 00:19:23,800 Speaker 1: it up with George W. Bush saying thank you very much, 332 00:19:24,600 --> 00:19:27,520 Speaker 1: thank you so saying, and I think it was even 333 00:19:27,560 --> 00:19:30,920 Speaker 1: called thank you very much. So weird that you would 334 00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:36,160 Speaker 1: have someone thanking someone for a terrorist attack, particularly the 335 00:19:36,280 --> 00:19:39,520 Speaker 1: leader of the country that had just been attacked. And 336 00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:45,000 Speaker 1: this artwork, believed or not, was not even exhibited anywhere. 337 00:19:45,119 --> 00:19:50,040 Speaker 1: It wasn't even put on display. Subsabi had merely put 338 00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:53,080 Speaker 1: it on his own website, so he was so proud 339 00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:55,560 Speaker 1: of it. No one else seemed to pick up the thought, No, 340 00:19:55,680 --> 00:19:57,000 Speaker 1: this has got to get out there. The world has 341 00:19:57,000 --> 00:19:59,560 Speaker 1: got to see this, and so he's put it on 342 00:19:59,600 --> 00:20:02,680 Speaker 1: his own website, and of course the world did see 343 00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:09,040 Speaker 1: it belatedly. This was from two thousand and seven, and 344 00:20:09,560 --> 00:20:14,480 Speaker 1: that was it. Suddenly this guy is no longer Australia's 345 00:20:14,600 --> 00:20:18,120 Speaker 1: representative to the Venice bn R, and the arts community 346 00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:21,119 Speaker 1: is up in arms about this. How dare you stop 347 00:20:21,160 --> 00:20:29,760 Speaker 1: this brave, pioneering terrorist adjacent Maybe he's just interested in them, 348 00:20:29,880 --> 00:20:31,960 Speaker 1: maybe it's a great study, Maybe he just wants to 349 00:20:31,960 --> 00:20:34,800 Speaker 1: know more about them. How dare you deny this this 350 00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:39,840 Speaker 1: freedom loving artist, his rightful jew as Australia's representative at 351 00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:43,119 Speaker 1: the Venice b and R. This is censorship and in 352 00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:50,679 Speaker 1: fact Subsabi himself declared art should not be censored. You 353 00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:56,119 Speaker 1: know what, I am one hundred percent team Subsabi. It 354 00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:59,239 Speaker 1: shouldn't be sense. I believe in freedom of speech. I 355 00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:02,880 Speaker 1: believe in free of expression. It is the most fundamental 356 00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:06,119 Speaker 1: thing about any liberal democracy. It is the only way 357 00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:10,000 Speaker 1: for democracy to flourish, let alone for creativity and the 358 00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:15,200 Speaker 1: arts to flourish. There is, however, just one catch, one 359 00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:20,399 Speaker 1: little catch, because Subsabi, it turns out, isn't all about 360 00:21:20,560 --> 00:21:25,359 Speaker 1: freedom of expression himself. Because I remember thinking there was 361 00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:28,200 Speaker 1: some other kind of little brew haha over this whole 362 00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:30,560 Speaker 1: issue and the arts community, And that was when the 363 00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:35,919 Speaker 1: Sydney Festival was hosting a piece by an Israeli choreographer, 364 00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:42,600 Speaker 1: and that performance had been sponsored in part by the 365 00:21:42,680 --> 00:21:46,280 Speaker 1: Israeli Embassy. They'd kicked in twenty thousand bucks to help 366 00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:48,680 Speaker 1: put on the show at the Sydney Festival. Now, there's 367 00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:52,440 Speaker 1: nothing particularly controversial about the show as far as I'm aware. 368 00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:55,080 Speaker 1: I would not watch a piece of contemporary dance if 369 00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:57,760 Speaker 1: you put a gun to my head. But you know, 370 00:21:58,280 --> 00:22:00,760 Speaker 1: I don't think there was anything particularly versial about the show. 371 00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:04,200 Speaker 1: Don't think there was anything particularly controversial about the artist. 372 00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:10,760 Speaker 1: But no, a whole bunch of Australian artists decided that 373 00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:15,320 Speaker 1: they were going to boycott the Sydney Festival because it 374 00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:20,880 Speaker 1: had accepted money from the Israelis. I thought, oh, that's 375 00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:25,159 Speaker 1: just silly. Why do you Why can't why shouldn't funding 376 00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:27,760 Speaker 1: for the arts be encouraged. But no, they weren't going 377 00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:32,359 Speaker 1: to contaminate themselves with even appearing at or under the 378 00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:38,080 Speaker 1: banner of the festival that had received from among countless 379 00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:44,360 Speaker 1: dozens hundreds of donors, thousands twenty grand from the Israeli embassy, 380 00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:47,520 Speaker 1: just so that they could help put on a show 381 00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:52,879 Speaker 1: by an Israeli choreographer. I thought to myself, surely carled 382 00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:57,359 Speaker 1: Subsabi wouldn't be one of those people who boycott's the 383 00:22:57,359 --> 00:23:00,359 Speaker 1: Sydney Festival just because they put on some other that 384 00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:04,000 Speaker 1: has nothing to do with him. Surely he would never 385 00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:06,720 Speaker 1: do such a thing because he believes that art should 386 00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:09,400 Speaker 1: not be censored. And here you are trying to put 387 00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:12,640 Speaker 1: pressure on Sydney Festival not to put on a show 388 00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:18,400 Speaker 1: by as an Israeli choreographer. But no, it appears that 389 00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:22,760 Speaker 1: Subsabi said I've decided to withdraw from the Sydney Festival 390 00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:27,520 Speaker 1: out of solidarity with the Palestinian people and the Palestinian cause. 391 00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:30,240 Speaker 1: That's how I feel about it. But I thought he 392 00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:34,000 Speaker 1: felt art should not be censored about it. I thought 393 00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:36,000 Speaker 1: that was how he felt about it. It's funny how 394 00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:38,840 Speaker 1: people's morals and principles change, don't they. But of course 395 00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:43,080 Speaker 1: the artist would say, hey, we're not worried about the 396 00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:45,879 Speaker 1: actual performance. We're not trying to we're not trying to 397 00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:50,360 Speaker 1: shut down. We're not trying to censor this Israeli choreographer 398 00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:52,679 Speaker 1: or the show being put on. This is just an 399 00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:56,160 Speaker 1: argument about money, where the money comes from, about which 400 00:23:56,200 --> 00:24:01,280 Speaker 1: government puts its money towards these artistic endeavors. It's a 401 00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:07,840 Speaker 1: bit like the Australian government putting its money towards Subsabi 402 00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:13,000 Speaker 1: going to Venice for the B and L, and maybe 403 00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:19,679 Speaker 1: it's decided that it should withdraw that funding too. Now 404 00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:22,480 Speaker 1: I don't know much about art, but I can tell 405 00:24:22,520 --> 00:24:31,160 Speaker 1: you that's a bit of poetic justice. Well, it's either 406 00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:33,879 Speaker 1: peace in our time or World War III. But Donald 407 00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:37,240 Speaker 1: Trump has come to power again and is solving all 408 00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:41,080 Speaker 1: the world's problems again. And he has now had his 409 00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:44,680 Speaker 1: people talked to Vladimir Putin's people about a little war 410 00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:49,040 Speaker 1: you might have heard of in Ukraine. And they've sat 411 00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:54,040 Speaker 1: down at the table, the Russian officials, the US officials. 412 00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:56,080 Speaker 1: The only people who seem to be missing from said 413 00:24:56,280 --> 00:24:59,520 Speaker 1: table are the Ukrainian officials. And I thought we'd get 414 00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:02,040 Speaker 1: someone who a little bit about this to tell us 415 00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:04,920 Speaker 1: what exactly is going on. His name is Missus Zelinsky. 416 00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:09,919 Speaker 1: He was a correspondent in Ukraine during the Russian invasion. 417 00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:12,720 Speaker 1: He is the author of the magnificent book The Sun 418 00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:15,560 Speaker 1: Will Rise, about his time in Ukraine. He's also a 419 00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:19,679 Speaker 1: full Bright scholar who is right up the wazoo with 420 00:25:19,720 --> 00:25:23,639 Speaker 1: all sorts of qualifications and expertise in international relations. And 421 00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:24,159 Speaker 1: he joins me. 422 00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:26,200 Speaker 2: Now, okay, mate, how are you good to be with you? Joe, 423 00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:29,480 Speaker 2: appreciate that very generous read. Mate, You're credible. 424 00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:31,720 Speaker 1: It's exactly as you put it in the email. So 425 00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:38,360 Speaker 1: you follow instructure, follow instructures very well. So talk us through. 426 00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:44,480 Speaker 1: You obviously have been completely buried in this stuff. Where 427 00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:49,120 Speaker 1: do you see is Trump actually acting? I think first 428 00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:51,720 Speaker 1: of all, is he acting in good faith? Does he 429 00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:56,080 Speaker 1: actually want peace in the Ukraine or is he just 430 00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:59,399 Speaker 1: doing a deal with his old mate Vlad to carve 431 00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:01,240 Speaker 1: out a whole bunch of stuff in the East and 432 00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:02,399 Speaker 1: handed to him on a platter. 433 00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:04,359 Speaker 2: Well, it's hard to know, right, I mean, I think 434 00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:08,480 Speaker 2: he genuinely wants peace, but everyone wants peace. It's peace 435 00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:11,959 Speaker 2: cost at what costs Joe? So we don't know. The 436 00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:14,080 Speaker 2: truth is we don't know. The only people that really 437 00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:16,240 Speaker 2: know the scope of what's been said are those in 438 00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:20,160 Speaker 2: the room between, as you mentioned, the United States officials 439 00:26:20,160 --> 00:26:23,840 Speaker 2: and Russian officials. But what's worrying is that you're talking 440 00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:26,480 Speaker 2: about a deal without Ukraine. Now, the previous administration and 441 00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:28,679 Speaker 2: that Joe Biden I had critiques of how they handled 442 00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:30,760 Speaker 2: the conflict in terms of the amount of support they gave. 443 00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:32,560 Speaker 2: It was a little bit too little, too late most 444 00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:36,480 Speaker 2: of the time, but their position was always no peace 445 00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:40,640 Speaker 2: in Ukraine without Ukraine. Yes, it's like someone talking about 446 00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:43,359 Speaker 2: your job and you're not in the room. And so 447 00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:47,159 Speaker 2: it's really quite troubling about what peace might look like, 448 00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:49,840 Speaker 2: because peace at all costs ends up being far worse. 449 00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:52,840 Speaker 2: And the problem we have here is that Ladimir put 450 00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:54,760 Speaker 2: In three years ago, and it's three years ago, which 451 00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:58,440 Speaker 2: is quite extraordinary when you think about it. He invaded Ukraine, 452 00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:01,920 Speaker 2: no question, who is the bad guy, right, So the way, 453 00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:04,000 Speaker 2: the fastest way to end this war is for Russia 454 00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:07,960 Speaker 2: and Vladimir Putin to uninvade Ukraine and so to reward 455 00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:13,000 Speaker 2: Putin for this act of complete bastardry, butchery, and frankly 456 00:27:13,119 --> 00:27:15,439 Speaker 2: a type of war we haven't seen since World War II, 457 00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:18,159 Speaker 2: A land war in Europe, a war of conquest, a 458 00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:20,400 Speaker 2: war where he's trying to essentially destroy a country next 459 00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:24,520 Speaker 2: door to reward him with land, with a seat at 460 00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:26,560 Speaker 2: the table with exactly what he wants, which is Russia 461 00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:28,240 Speaker 2: to be treated like a great power one on one 462 00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:29,560 Speaker 2: conversation with the United States. 463 00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:30,640 Speaker 3: Everyone else doesn't matter. 464 00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:33,280 Speaker 2: That would be rewarding the worst kind of behavior, and 465 00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:36,480 Speaker 2: that kind of behavior rewarded will I believe, lead to 466 00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:37,359 Speaker 2: worse outcomes. 467 00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:40,720 Speaker 1: And also the real politic of it is questionable as well, 468 00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:44,000 Speaker 1: because in Russia you invading Ukraine and trying to prove 469 00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:46,480 Speaker 1: what a big man it is on the world stage 470 00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:48,800 Speaker 1: still and we're looking at a country that's clearly in decline, 471 00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:51,399 Speaker 1: trying to prove it that it's still a big player. 472 00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:53,800 Speaker 1: It actually exposed its sweetness. I mean, as you say, 473 00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:56,440 Speaker 1: the fact that it invaded three years ago and they're 474 00:27:56,480 --> 00:27:59,880 Speaker 1: still scrapping it out, a much smaller country than I thought, 475 00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:03,119 Speaker 1: just be able to take a giant bite out of, 476 00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:04,720 Speaker 1: and it wouldn't be able to do anything. In fact, 477 00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:07,479 Speaker 1: it's resisted. Russia is sort of bogged down in this 478 00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:11,560 Speaker 1: quagmire of a war. Ukrainian parts has actually invaded Russia 479 00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:14,439 Speaker 1: just to be cheeky, basically, to show that it can. 480 00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:17,280 Speaker 1: And so you've got Russia, I would have thought, in 481 00:28:17,320 --> 00:28:23,240 Speaker 1: a position of weakness, actually being rewarded and dealt with 482 00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:25,120 Speaker 1: as though it's in a position of strength. 483 00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:25,320 Speaker 3: Right. 484 00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:27,960 Speaker 2: Vladimir Putin is descerate right now, right, I mean they're 485 00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:31,840 Speaker 2: three years into Vladimir Putin's three Day war. And so 486 00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:34,159 Speaker 2: the fact of the matter is we thought Russia was 487 00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:36,320 Speaker 2: the second most powerful army in the world. Turns out 488 00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:39,040 Speaker 2: they're not even more powerful than Ukraine. That's right, and 489 00:28:39,520 --> 00:28:43,120 Speaker 2: it's been an extraordinarily embarrassment. Now at the moment, Russia's 490 00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:45,320 Speaker 2: going forward a little bit, but at enormous costs. They 491 00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:48,440 Speaker 2: can't win this war. They're losing thousands of men a day. 492 00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:51,120 Speaker 2: They may have lost somewhere between five hundred and eight 493 00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:53,760 Speaker 2: hundred thousand men already in three years, which is just 494 00:28:53,760 --> 00:28:56,200 Speaker 2: a staggering cost. No country can ever sustain that level 495 00:28:56,240 --> 00:28:59,320 Speaker 2: of losses. Their economy is a mess. Inflations at nine 496 00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:01,400 Speaker 2: and a half percent, interest rates at twenty one percent. 497 00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:04,160 Speaker 2: Everyone talks about instrates in Australia being high twenty one 498 00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:07,680 Speaker 2: percent interest rates. They're desperate, they're under sanctions. Now they're 499 00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:10,080 Speaker 2: evading sanctions, but they are not in a good position. 500 00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:13,000 Speaker 2: And so right now in the battlefield, would you believe 501 00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:17,120 Speaker 2: they are sending out Soviet era cars onto the battlefield 502 00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:19,920 Speaker 2: because they're no longer able to manufacture modern, modern vehicles. 503 00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:21,200 Speaker 3: Everyone left with the same. 504 00:29:21,200 --> 00:29:22,800 Speaker 1: Imagine those little three wheeled ones. 505 00:29:23,360 --> 00:29:25,840 Speaker 3: The lardeners look it up. The Russian lardeners are on 506 00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:26,480 Speaker 3: the battlefield. 507 00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:29,840 Speaker 2: So you've got these Russian soldiers that are poorly trained 508 00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:32,240 Speaker 2: driving around in cars on the battlefield, and we are 509 00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:34,959 Speaker 2: going to reward that army and that nation, which is, 510 00:29:35,160 --> 00:29:38,080 Speaker 2: as you mentioned, in decline, under enormous stress, alcoholism through 511 00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:40,320 Speaker 2: the roof the economy, under enormous stress. 512 00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:41,840 Speaker 3: They're falling apart. 513 00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:47,120 Speaker 2: Suicide rates are up, life expectancies down, economy is down, 514 00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:49,720 Speaker 2: and we're going to reward that which is essentially a 515 00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:52,960 Speaker 2: nation in decline. It's more or less a basket case 516 00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:55,040 Speaker 2: with the nuclear arsenal and a petrol station. 517 00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:57,240 Speaker 3: And we're going to reward them with a. 518 00:29:57,080 --> 00:30:01,280 Speaker 2: Conquest and illegally annexing land in a democracy next to it. 519 00:30:01,360 --> 00:30:04,200 Speaker 2: It's a dangerous, dangerous world that we're looking to create. 520 00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:06,240 Speaker 1: Here and again it's Russia fighting wars the way it's 521 00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:09,560 Speaker 1: always fort wars, which was to generally be less well 522 00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:14,560 Speaker 1: equipped and less tactically and strategically proficient, but just using 523 00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:17,680 Speaker 1: just weight, huge amounts of waste, just numbers and numbers, 524 00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:20,960 Speaker 1: just the meat grinder. They've always got more people, more 525 00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:23,040 Speaker 1: soldiers to send to the front line, and eventually they 526 00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:27,920 Speaker 1: just wear other armies down. So Russia has already said 527 00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:31,200 Speaker 1: this obviously started over an argument. Well it didn't really, 528 00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:33,400 Speaker 1: but the pretext of it was an argument over whether 529 00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:36,520 Speaker 1: or not Ukraine could join NATO. Russia is now saying 530 00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:41,720 Speaker 1: join not joining NATO won't be enough that and this 531 00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:46,000 Speaker 1: seems to be extracting at least some land. We know 532 00:30:46,040 --> 00:30:50,040 Speaker 1: that there's contested regions in the east of Ukraine where 533 00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:53,320 Speaker 1: there is a high Russian speaking or ethnically Russian whatever 534 00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:57,040 Speaker 1: that means proportion of the population. It looks like they're 535 00:30:57,080 --> 00:31:01,200 Speaker 1: going to want some of that, some of that territory 536 00:31:01,240 --> 00:31:04,640 Speaker 1: carved out, and that is going to be the cost 537 00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:06,880 Speaker 1: of peace if it ends up being agreed to. Do 538 00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:11,240 Speaker 1: you think that that will happen? And if it doesn't, 539 00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:15,520 Speaker 1: what happens is there just sort of endless war of attrition. 540 00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:17,920 Speaker 2: Well, the fear here, I mean the fear here, Joe, 541 00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:19,760 Speaker 2: is that we end up in a situation where Vladimir 542 00:31:19,800 --> 00:31:21,880 Speaker 2: Putin gets what he wants on this occasion, which is 543 00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:24,760 Speaker 2: a land bridge from what he'd already illegally annext with 544 00:31:24,840 --> 00:31:27,440 Speaker 2: Crimea in twenty fourteen. He's then invaded in twenty twenty 545 00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:29,440 Speaker 2: two to get a land bridge. Essentially the ability to 546 00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:32,760 Speaker 2: go across Russia through Ukraine into Crimea and have a 547 00:31:32,840 --> 00:31:36,400 Speaker 2: quote land bridge, but essentially occupying Ukraine's territory. And he's 548 00:31:36,440 --> 00:31:40,160 Speaker 2: taken about fifteen percent of that territory of Ukraine's sovereign 549 00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:44,480 Speaker 2: land mass. You're currently occupied by Russian forces. But what 550 00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:49,560 Speaker 2: we would fear is, does this inverted Commas peace just 551 00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:51,680 Speaker 2: end up being a breather for Vladimir Putin to come 552 00:31:51,720 --> 00:31:53,760 Speaker 2: back once and again back right? So, I mean the 553 00:31:53,840 --> 00:31:56,280 Speaker 2: lesson of history is every time Vladimir Putin gets a 554 00:31:56,280 --> 00:31:58,800 Speaker 2: way of bad behavior, we get worse behavior. He's already 555 00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:01,400 Speaker 2: invaded Georgia and to the eight and the sort of 556 00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:04,680 Speaker 2: esentiallygot about that world, did nothing, and then the behavior 557 00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:09,200 Speaker 2: got a bit worse. He invaded it in Crimea and 558 00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:12,479 Speaker 2: into don Bass in twenty fourteen, no penalty. Twenty sixteen 559 00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:15,080 Speaker 2: he medals in the US election, he medals in Brexit 560 00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:18,240 Speaker 2: again very little penalty. So the whole way along, Ladimir 561 00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:20,760 Speaker 2: Putin thinks to himself, well, the West is a paper tiger. 562 00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:22,040 Speaker 3: I can outweight you guys. 563 00:32:22,520 --> 00:32:26,080 Speaker 2: And it would appear that that might be right, which 564 00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:28,240 Speaker 2: is really troubling because a year and a half ago 565 00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:32,080 Speaker 2: Vladimir Putin nearly had a coup against. 566 00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:33,680 Speaker 1: Him, that's right, Maybe another one. 567 00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:35,720 Speaker 2: This how badly the war was going. This is the 568 00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:38,240 Speaker 2: sort of pressure that Russia is under domestically. The war 569 00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:40,400 Speaker 2: is not going well and Russians know that. And so 570 00:32:40,920 --> 00:32:43,160 Speaker 2: the idea that we are going to now allow Putin 571 00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:46,400 Speaker 2: to extract a victory from what is a tremendous strategic 572 00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:48,840 Speaker 2: defeat is just staggering to me. I can't understand it. 573 00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:51,400 Speaker 2: And it's a world that Australia should be very worried about. 574 00:32:51,600 --> 00:32:54,880 Speaker 2: A world where big countries destroy small countries because they 575 00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:58,720 Speaker 2: don't like them. He's a world where Australia cannot survive, cannot. 576 00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:02,320 Speaker 1: And just to completely flip the argument, just overnight, a 577 00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:06,480 Speaker 1: war of words is erupted between Donald Trump and Zelenski. 578 00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:11,080 Speaker 1: The President, not Zelenski, but Zelenski. There no relation the 579 00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:14,560 Speaker 1: president of Ukraine. Donald Trump has accused him of being 580 00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:18,480 Speaker 1: a dictator, of refusing to hold elections, and there is 581 00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:21,360 Speaker 1: I think most people would agree. There is actually an 582 00:33:21,440 --> 00:33:24,520 Speaker 1: historic argument where you know, nine to eighty nine, when 583 00:33:24,520 --> 00:33:26,440 Speaker 1: the Berlin Wall came down and it was the end 584 00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:28,600 Speaker 1: of the Cold War and the end of history. According 585 00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:31,520 Speaker 1: to Francis Fukiyama and the West had one. There was 586 00:33:31,520 --> 00:33:36,200 Speaker 1: a commitment by the then US Secretary of State, NATO 587 00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:38,840 Speaker 1: will not take one step further. We will bring in 588 00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:42,040 Speaker 1: Germany to NATO, but we're not going to go any further. 589 00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:46,280 Speaker 1: That was backtracked on a decade later. Poland comes into NATO, 590 00:33:46,760 --> 00:33:48,520 Speaker 1: and there are some people that say, well, Russia is 591 00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:51,479 Speaker 1: actually right to see this as a backflip on an 592 00:33:51,520 --> 00:33:55,320 Speaker 1: agreed kind of detent or an agreed sort of border, 593 00:33:56,000 --> 00:33:59,080 Speaker 1: and that the West is encroaching on Russia. It's getting right, 594 00:33:59,120 --> 00:34:02,920 Speaker 1: and it's goal right. Face Zelenski's refusing to hold elections. 595 00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:05,080 Speaker 1: If you had a poll in some of these Eastern regions, 596 00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:10,040 Speaker 1: the Russian populations may well vote to go with Mother 597 00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:15,239 Speaker 1: Russia and Moscow. Is there is there any kind of 598 00:34:15,440 --> 00:34:16,480 Speaker 1: argument to that? 599 00:34:16,640 --> 00:34:19,520 Speaker 2: You well, I mean, firstly, Vladimir Putin accusing other leaders 600 00:34:19,560 --> 00:34:22,799 Speaker 2: of being illegitimate is pretty wild. I think Vladimir Putin 601 00:34:22,800 --> 00:34:24,080 Speaker 2: at the last leagu you got one hundred and twenty 602 00:34:24,120 --> 00:34:27,080 Speaker 2: percent of the vote, right, So I mean it is. 603 00:34:27,000 --> 00:34:29,399 Speaker 1: Like Donald Trump. Donald Trump saying that I. 604 00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:31,279 Speaker 2: Don't love the term gas lighting, but that is like 605 00:34:31,400 --> 00:34:33,160 Speaker 2: gas lighting at a whole new level. 606 00:34:33,160 --> 00:34:34,080 Speaker 3: So that the idea that. 607 00:34:34,200 --> 00:34:36,400 Speaker 1: Seems gas lit Trump and Trumps parady, but. 608 00:34:36,600 --> 00:34:39,680 Speaker 2: The fact that look, truth, there hasn't been elections in 609 00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:41,160 Speaker 2: Ukraine because they're under invasion. 610 00:34:41,120 --> 00:34:41,279 Speaker 3: You know. 611 00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:45,000 Speaker 2: The last time this happened, Winston Churchill also didn't have 612 00:34:45,040 --> 00:34:48,920 Speaker 2: elections during the forties when Britain was fighting for its survival, 613 00:34:49,040 --> 00:34:51,440 Speaker 2: ended up having an election just before victory in the Pacific. 614 00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:52,960 Speaker 2: But it wasn't n til Hitler was defeated that they 615 00:34:52,960 --> 00:34:55,200 Speaker 2: held an election and Churchill lost. He lost to Atlet 616 00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:56,640 Speaker 2: save the World, Thanks so much. 617 00:34:57,880 --> 00:34:58,279 Speaker 3: That's right. 618 00:34:58,360 --> 00:35:01,000 Speaker 1: And at that point Churchill had actually never won an election. 619 00:35:01,000 --> 00:35:02,960 Speaker 3: Right, that's right, that's true, did win one till fifty one, 620 00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:03,319 Speaker 3: that's right. 621 00:35:03,360 --> 00:35:05,120 Speaker 2: So he only came to power through a sort of 622 00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:06,480 Speaker 2: an internal party machinations. 623 00:35:06,520 --> 00:35:08,839 Speaker 1: Right, the world's greatest Britain, they keep voting for. 624 00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:10,920 Speaker 3: It, right, So there's that. Right. 625 00:35:10,960 --> 00:35:13,280 Speaker 2: So their idea that hasn't been elections, it's kind of silly, 626 00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:16,239 Speaker 2: And the majority of Ukrainians are very comfortable. You look 627 00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:18,360 Speaker 2: at polling, they're like, look, it's fine, we understand and 628 00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:20,719 Speaker 2: you know that, you know, we'll deal with that once 629 00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:23,480 Speaker 2: we have a piece where Ukraine's safe and prosperous in 630 00:35:23,600 --> 00:35:26,040 Speaker 2: terms of the questions around the expansion of NATO. Look, 631 00:35:26,360 --> 00:35:27,880 Speaker 2: I get that as the argument. That's the sort of 632 00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:31,640 Speaker 2: chomskiest view to Trump view. The West is encroaching westward 633 00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:33,880 Speaker 2: towards Russia. The other way looking at it is countries 634 00:35:33,920 --> 00:35:36,239 Speaker 2: that were under the occupation of the Soviets, random. 635 00:35:36,040 --> 00:35:39,479 Speaker 1: West, that's right to join, that's right. 636 00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:42,239 Speaker 2: These countries have been begging to join NATA, begging to 637 00:35:42,320 --> 00:35:44,799 Speaker 2: join NATA. Now, if the argument against NATO is now, 638 00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:48,279 Speaker 2: NATO's defensive alliance is a defensive ones never invaded anyone ever. 639 00:35:48,760 --> 00:35:50,920 Speaker 2: So if the argument is you don't need to have NATO, 640 00:35:51,160 --> 00:35:53,520 Speaker 2: and I'm going to prove it to you by invading Ukraine, 641 00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:56,240 Speaker 2: you don't need to join the defensive alliance against Russia. 642 00:35:56,320 --> 00:35:58,279 Speaker 2: And the logic for that is, I'm going to now 643 00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:00,480 Speaker 2: invade you. So you know, the first thing that happened 644 00:36:00,920 --> 00:36:02,880 Speaker 2: now putin fears NATO expansion. 645 00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:06,120 Speaker 3: He's the greater greatest NATO expansionist in history. 646 00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:10,080 Speaker 2: The moment he invaded Sweden and Finland, two countries that 647 00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:13,320 Speaker 2: stayed out of NATO for seventy years were famously neutral, 648 00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:16,200 Speaker 2: said we're straight in because the logic isn't the logic 649 00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:19,720 Speaker 2: is obvious. So Putin he fears NATO, He's the expander 650 00:36:19,760 --> 00:36:23,520 Speaker 2: of NATO, he fears a sovereign, Western leaning democratic Ukraine. 651 00:36:23,560 --> 00:36:24,719 Speaker 3: He's the father of it. 652 00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:28,200 Speaker 1: Out you think you need to be defended against me, 653 00:36:28,280 --> 00:36:30,080 Speaker 1: and I'm going to invade you just to prove it. 654 00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:32,680 Speaker 2: There's no need for a defensive lines against Russia, and 655 00:36:32,719 --> 00:36:34,880 Speaker 2: top prove it by staging an invasion of my neighbors. 656 00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:36,560 Speaker 3: And the logic of it is baffling. 657 00:36:36,680 --> 00:36:39,319 Speaker 2: And as I said, I think any nation that has 658 00:36:39,400 --> 00:36:42,879 Speaker 2: joined NATO in the last decade, or the last twenty years, 659 00:36:42,960 --> 00:36:45,400 Speaker 2: or since the for the Berlin War, they know what 660 00:36:45,440 --> 00:36:47,400 Speaker 2: the Soviets are like, they know what Putin's like. He 661 00:36:47,440 --> 00:36:50,040 Speaker 2: wants the Soviet Union back, and so I think that 662 00:36:50,120 --> 00:36:52,520 Speaker 2: they are made the right decision joining NATO clearly. 663 00:36:52,760 --> 00:36:56,560 Speaker 1: And finally, is it possible that Trump has actually sensed 664 00:36:56,760 --> 00:37:00,360 Speaker 1: Russia's weakness since its eagerness to do a dear It 665 00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:03,360 Speaker 1: knows it needs a sort of a backdoor to extract 666 00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:05,960 Speaker 1: itself from this morass that it's got it in. And 667 00:37:06,120 --> 00:37:10,080 Speaker 1: he is actually going to fix this where others have 668 00:37:10,200 --> 00:37:12,359 Speaker 1: not been able to do that. Is it in any 669 00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:15,359 Speaker 1: way in your mind possible that maybe Trump is doing 670 00:37:15,520 --> 00:37:17,759 Speaker 1: a little bit of three D chess here, a little 671 00:37:17,760 --> 00:37:20,640 Speaker 1: bit of dropping the rock in the puddle and sort of, 672 00:37:20,880 --> 00:37:24,520 Speaker 1: you know, destabilizing a bit or getting people sort of 673 00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:26,600 Speaker 1: a bit while he so that a deal can actually 674 00:37:26,600 --> 00:37:29,319 Speaker 1: be made, or is he just being We'll see. 675 00:37:29,760 --> 00:37:33,120 Speaker 2: We don't know, right, We'll see the negotiations they are ongoing. 676 00:37:33,160 --> 00:37:34,840 Speaker 2: I think the Ukrainians need to see at the table, 677 00:37:34,840 --> 00:37:36,560 Speaker 2: the Europeans need to see at the table. I think 678 00:37:36,640 --> 00:37:40,319 Speaker 2: there is some critique that's worthy of the Europeans. They 679 00:37:40,320 --> 00:37:43,800 Speaker 2: haven't done enough, not just in this invasion of Ukraine, 680 00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:46,440 Speaker 2: but they've had a lot of meetings and also a 681 00:37:46,480 --> 00:37:48,680 Speaker 2: lot of meeting It's criticism that goes back to the 682 00:37:48,680 --> 00:37:52,200 Speaker 2: Obama administration, the first Trump administration, the Biden administration. Europeans 683 00:37:52,239 --> 00:37:53,920 Speaker 2: need to do more for their own security. They need 684 00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:56,280 Speaker 2: to invest. So does Australia, so does every nation around 685 00:37:56,280 --> 00:37:59,040 Speaker 2: the world. So I understand that critique. In terms of 686 00:37:59,040 --> 00:38:01,200 Speaker 2: what sort of piece we see, we won't know. But 687 00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:04,640 Speaker 2: the worst kind of peace would be that Ukraine has 688 00:38:04,680 --> 00:38:06,719 Speaker 2: to give up its land. Ukraine has to give up 689 00:38:06,760 --> 00:38:10,320 Speaker 2: as sovereignty, it has no security guarantees, it's not in NATO, 690 00:38:10,480 --> 00:38:13,040 Speaker 2: it has no troops defending it, and it's a sitting 691 00:38:13,160 --> 00:38:15,279 Speaker 2: duck for Putin in a couple of years time, once 692 00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:17,360 Speaker 2: his war machine has res tooled and re stopped and 693 00:38:17,400 --> 00:38:19,920 Speaker 2: he's able to invade again, that'd be a terrible outcome. 694 00:38:20,200 --> 00:38:21,919 Speaker 2: When I looked at this conflict, they said, we're either 695 00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:25,040 Speaker 2: at the beginning of a peaceful era or were at 696 00:38:25,080 --> 00:38:27,680 Speaker 2: the beginning of something darker and something much worse. When 697 00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:30,799 Speaker 2: World War Two started, it wasn't a whistle blown said 698 00:38:30,840 --> 00:38:33,839 Speaker 2: we're starting World War Two. It was Hitler marching through 699 00:38:33,840 --> 00:38:36,880 Speaker 2: the RhE Island. It was the carving up Czechoslovakia. It 700 00:38:37,000 --> 00:38:39,840 Speaker 2: was the Italians invading into Africa. It was a Japanese 701 00:38:39,880 --> 00:38:42,719 Speaker 2: going into China. And that happened over a half decade, 702 00:38:42,800 --> 00:38:44,799 Speaker 2: and then suddenly we're in a global conflict. We had 703 00:38:44,840 --> 00:38:47,960 Speaker 2: three conflicts convergedon to one, and I'm fearful that we're 704 00:38:48,000 --> 00:38:48,759 Speaker 2: heading that way again. 705 00:38:49,080 --> 00:38:53,480 Speaker 1: There you go, World War three on our doorstep uplifting, 706 00:38:53,640 --> 00:38:59,200 Speaker 1: uplifting stuff. You ended on Missius Olinski, Ukraine expert there 707 00:38:59,239 --> 00:39:01,040 Speaker 1: in the front line and also the author of the 708 00:39:01,040 --> 00:39:04,560 Speaker 1: Sudden Will Rise, a fantastic book about his experiences there 709 00:39:04,600 --> 00:39:07,120 Speaker 1: in a fictionalized form. Thank you so much for joining us. 710 00:39:07,200 --> 00:39:08,680 Speaker 3: I'm a real story, thanks joke. 711 00:39:10,680 --> 00:39:12,640 Speaker 1: And that's all we have time for this week. If 712 00:39:12,640 --> 00:39:15,160 Speaker 1: you've got any comments, any questions, anything you'd like us 713 00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:17,640 Speaker 1: to look into or answer, drop us an email at 714 00:39:17,640 --> 00:39:21,760 Speaker 1: the Real Story at Nova Podcasts dot com dot Au. 715 00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:23,719 Speaker 1: But I'm no longer on Instagram, I'm no longer on 716 00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:26,879 Speaker 1: any social media at all, but you can still send 717 00:39:26,880 --> 00:39:30,080 Speaker 1: me an email. That's an electronic letter, and that is 718 00:39:30,120 --> 00:39:33,720 Speaker 1: the Real Story at Nova podcast dot com dot Au. 719 00:39:33,800 --> 00:39:35,680 Speaker 1: And of course you can read me every Monday and 720 00:39:35,719 --> 00:39:39,280 Speaker 1: Saturday and all the various news court mastheads around the country. 721 00:39:39,280 --> 00:39:41,239 Speaker 1: And of course you can leave us a review, and 722 00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:44,319 Speaker 1: you can leave us at a rating of five stars 723 00:39:44,440 --> 00:39:47,520 Speaker 1: or more whatever it goes up to. And I'll see 724 00:39:47,520 --> 00:39:48,000 Speaker 1: you next week.