WEBVTT - Is a New Nuclear Arms Race Brewing?

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Nicole Johnston and you're listening to seven AM. The

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<v Speaker 1>US and Russia account for ninety percent of the world's

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<v Speaker 1>nuclear firepower. But today the New Start Treaty, which limits

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<v Speaker 1>the number of missiles and warheads in their arsenals, expires.

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<v Speaker 1>President Putin first suspended it two years ago. Now without

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<v Speaker 1>a last minute deal, it looks set to collapse for

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<v Speaker 1>good today. Paul Dean, who helped implement the treaty and

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<v Speaker 1>is now a vice president for the US Based Nuclear

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<v Speaker 1>Threat Initiative, on the possibility of a new nuclear arms race.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Thursday, February five. Paul, if you could take us

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<v Speaker 1>back a bit, what is the New Start Treaty and

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<v Speaker 1>how did it reduce the risk of a nuclear crisis?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I appreciate that question, Nicole. You know, the treaty

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<v Speaker 2>is now in its fifteenth year. This is a treaty

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<v Speaker 2>that reduces and limits the number of both US and

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<v Speaker 2>Russian strategic nuclear forces, so warheads, strategic launchers, delivery vehicles,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, the nuclear arsenal that the US and the

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<v Speaker 2>Russians have on intercontinental range weapons. But what I would

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<v Speaker 2>really emphasize is that the treaty is a lot more

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<v Speaker 2>than those limits. The limits themselves are on maybe two

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<v Speaker 2>pages of a three hundred page treaty, and the rest

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<v Speaker 2>of the treaty is really made up of intricately designed

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<v Speaker 2>verification measures that include short notice inspections and channels of

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<v Speaker 2>communication that give both sides a predictable and transparent picture

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<v Speaker 2>of what the nuclear forces are doing and how they're composed.

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<v Speaker 2>And that kind of confidence is highly stabilizing and preventing miscommunications, miscalculations,

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<v Speaker 2>and invertent escalations. So not only do treaties like the

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<v Speaker 2>New Star Treaty constrain nuclear arms races, but they also

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<v Speaker 2>act as a really important hedge against the threat of

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<v Speaker 2>a miscalculation.

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<v Speaker 1>So how did this nuclear deal come about in the

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<v Speaker 1>first place and was it difficult to broke up?

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<v Speaker 2>The New Start Treaty is the most recent in a

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<v Speaker 2>fairly long line of bilateral US Soviets and then US

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<v Speaker 2>Russia and nuclear arms con treaties dating back to nineteen

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<v Speaker 2>seventy two.

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<v Speaker 3>The governments of the United States and the Soviet Union,

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<v Speaker 3>after reviewing the courts of their talks and the limitation

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<v Speaker 3>of strategic armaments, have agreed to concentrate this year on

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<v Speaker 3>working out an Agreement for the Limitation of the Deployment

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<v Speaker 3>of Antiballistic Missile Systems ABM.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, it's interesting, you know, New Start was in

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<v Speaker 2>some ways remarkable for how fast it was negotiated, which

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<v Speaker 2>was about two years, and that's fast in the realm

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<v Speaker 2>of nuclear arms control. And it really does illustrate what

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<v Speaker 2>the stakes of this moment are. Where this week the

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<v Speaker 2>treaty will expire under its terms, and there have not

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<v Speaker 2>been serious, sustained efforts to negotiate a success or agreement,

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<v Speaker 2>and I think that introduces the risks of initiating those

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<v Speaker 2>dangerous action, reaction and miscalculation dynamics that these treaties have

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<v Speaker 2>been designed and have successfully prevented for the last almost

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<v Speaker 2>fifty years. But it's a really important point to note

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<v Speaker 2>that all of these treaties and going back to you know,

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<v Speaker 2>President Nixon on our side, and then very famously Ronald

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<v Speaker 2>Reagan and Mikhil Gorbachev, and then you know, most recently

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<v Speaker 2>with Obama and Medvedev.

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<v Speaker 4>And I'm pleased to announce that, after a year of

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<v Speaker 4>intense negotiations, the United States and Russia have agreed to

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<v Speaker 4>the most comprehensive arms control agreement in nearly two decades.

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<v Speaker 2>It illustrates that these kinds of national security undertakings usually

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<v Speaker 2>necessitate involvement at the very highest levels of government. These

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<v Speaker 2>have been top level presidential priorities. And I think it's

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<v Speaker 2>important to emphasize that President Trump has been quite vocal

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<v Speaker 2>for a lot of years on his desire to limit

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<v Speaker 2>nuclear dangers.

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<v Speaker 5>When they explain what it represents and the kind of

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<v Speaker 5>destruction that you're talking about, it is a very sobering moment, yes.

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<v Speaker 2>Very and so he does have an opportunity here to

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<v Speaker 2>assume a place in that tradition in brokering an agreement

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<v Speaker 2>that reduces the dangers of nuclear weapons.

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<v Speaker 5>When we need nuclear weapons, like the kind of weapons

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<v Speaker 5>that we're building and that Russia has and that China

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<v Speaker 5>has to a lesser extent but will have. That's going

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<v Speaker 5>to be very said, that's going to be probably oblivion.

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<v Speaker 1>All this nuclear arms deal. It's actually been on ice

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<v Speaker 1>for a while. Putin suspended it a couple of years ago.

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<v Speaker 1>Could you talk us through what happened up until that

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<v Speaker 1>point and are we now looking at its total collapse?

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<v Speaker 1>Really game over?

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<v Speaker 2>You're quite right that the Russian side illegitimately suspended its

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<v Speaker 2>participation in the New Star Treaty very transparently trying to

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<v Speaker 2>link this to the Ukraine War in an attempt to

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<v Speaker 2>extract concessions out of the US side.

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<v Speaker 6>They want to deliver us a strategic defeat well sneaking

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<v Speaker 6>into our strategic nuclear objectives. Regarding this, but I'd have

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<v Speaker 6>to say that Russia suspends its participation in the New

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<v Speaker 6>Start Treaty quoted.

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<v Speaker 2>And so I think the treaty was very much on

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<v Speaker 2>life support for the last couple of years, and as

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<v Speaker 2>you say, that ends this week because the treaty cannot

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<v Speaker 2>be extended any further. And so the issue is what

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<v Speaker 2>comes next. What can the US and the Russian Federation

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<v Speaker 2>do to preserve guardrails on the nuclear deterrence equation. I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>one thing we have learned over the course of these

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<v Speaker 2>decades of nuclear arms control is that they do not

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<v Speaker 2>materialize overnight. But that has to happen soon, and that

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<v Speaker 2>has to happen, you know, in the near term, and

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<v Speaker 2>it has to happen frankly, in an era that's even

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<v Speaker 2>more complicated than it was in two thousand and ten

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<v Speaker 2>when the New Star Treaty was first negotiated, because now

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<v Speaker 2>we don't have a bipolar US Russia nuclear relationship. We

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<v Speaker 2>have a tripolar nuclear competition that also involves China coming up.

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<v Speaker 1>We on the brink of another nuclear arms race, Paul,

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<v Speaker 1>what is the greatest danger when this deal collapses? And

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<v Speaker 1>could we see another Cold War style nuclear arms race again?

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<v Speaker 2>So I try not to overstate this because you know,

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<v Speaker 2>obviously when you're talking about nuclear weapons, there is a

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<v Speaker 2>worst case scenario. But without those guardrails in place, the

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<v Speaker 2>pressures and action reaction dynamics that we know for a

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<v Speaker 2>fact can and do drive arms races are no longer

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<v Speaker 2>going to have a circuit breaker, and those arms race

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<v Speaker 2>dynamics do not regulate them selves. If in this new

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<v Speaker 2>tripolar nuclear situation that we find ourselves in, the US

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<v Speaker 2>side starts to build up the Russian side and the

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<v Speaker 2>Chinese side will see that and will take steps accordingly,

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<v Speaker 2>and so you'll start to see the risk of a

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<v Speaker 2>renewed nuclear arms race, which I might add is extremely

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<v Speaker 2>expensive for all players. I mean this is you know,

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<v Speaker 2>in the US alone, currently we're talking about one hundred

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<v Speaker 2>billion dollars a year on our nuclear modernization budget, and

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<v Speaker 2>if that is accompanied by a build up that number

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<v Speaker 2>goes up. Equally importantly, you lose the channel of communication

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<v Speaker 2>and you lose the predictability and transparency into the other

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<v Speaker 2>sides nuclear posture. That will push you to start planning

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<v Speaker 2>for worst case scenarios and could potentially drive a catastrophic

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<v Speaker 2>miscalculation if you're making decisions based on speculation and not

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<v Speaker 2>based on fact.

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<v Speaker 1>You mentioned China's nuclear build up. How extensive is it,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I.

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<v Speaker 2>Think the precise numbers are going to be something that

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<v Speaker 2>only the governments and their militaries know. The two largest

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<v Speaker 2>nuclear arsenals right now are unambiguously the US and the

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<v Speaker 2>Russian Federation.

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<v Speaker 5>There's no reason for US to be building brand new

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<v Speaker 5>nuclear weapons. We already have so many you could destroy

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<v Speaker 5>the world fifty times over one hundred times over.

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<v Speaker 2>China has embarked on a rapid and frankly opaque nuclear

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<v Speaker 2>build up over the last you know, several years.

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<v Speaker 6>There are no official figures regarding China's nuclear arsenal.

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<v Speaker 2>That's because it's one of the biggest state secrets of all.

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<v Speaker 2>The end state of that is not clear, but it

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<v Speaker 2>does inject some major questions into what the next era

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<v Speaker 2>of nuclear stability can look like.

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<v Speaker 1>China's President shet Iping with a grand show of force

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<v Speaker 1>marking eighty years since the end of World War Two

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<v Speaker 1>with its biggest ever military.

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<v Speaker 7>Parade, fifty thousand spectators right there and tee enimin square

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<v Speaker 7>through cheered when nuclear capable missiles and launchers went past

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<v Speaker 7>in batches on trucks, the first ever show of its

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<v Speaker 7>nuclear tria.

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<v Speaker 2>It's not simply the case that the United States has

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<v Speaker 2>to deter one nuclear armed potential competitor, but more than one,

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<v Speaker 2>and that is relatively new, and that's going to require

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<v Speaker 2>a significant rethink to ensure that the next nuclear stability

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<v Speaker 2>framework that we so desperately need is fit for purpose

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<v Speaker 2>to bring stability to a world that has become multipolar

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<v Speaker 2>and multidimensional in the nuclear.

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<v Speaker 1>Sel Does the end of this new treaty actually increase

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<v Speaker 1>the risk of a nuclear war in your opinion?

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<v Speaker 2>Without a successful approach to stabilizing the US Russia nuclear relationship,

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<v Speaker 2>that's going to put more and more pressure on all

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<v Speaker 2>of our extended military alliances. I think there are tangible

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<v Speaker 2>global security implications if we're entering a world in which

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<v Speaker 2>those nuclear guardrails have fallen away. We will see what

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<v Speaker 2>the next few days old. But I think any way

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<v Speaker 2>you slice it, the treaty does expire, and I think

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<v Speaker 2>for the first time, and you know, fifty years, we'll

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<v Speaker 2>be looking at a world in which there are not

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<v Speaker 2>guardrails on the US Russia and nuclear competition, and I

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<v Speaker 2>think that makes the world a more dangerous place.

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<v Speaker 1>Paul, thank you so much for joining us.

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<v Speaker 2>Great thank you.

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<v Speaker 1>Also in the news, organizers are continuing to plan a

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<v Speaker 1>protest against the upcoming visit of Israeli President Isaac Hertzog,

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<v Speaker 1>despite New South Wales police extending protest restrictions in parts

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<v Speaker 1>of Sydney. President Herzog is due to visit Sydney on

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<v Speaker 1>February nine, and police have extended limits on approvals for

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<v Speaker 1>public assemblies for the next two weeks. Under the restrictions,

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<v Speaker 1>gatherings are still permitted, but police may issue move on directions.

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<v Speaker 1>And Colombian President Gustavo Petro has described his nearly two

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<v Speaker 1>hour White House meeting with US President Donald Trump as

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<v Speaker 1>optimistic and constructive. It follows Trump's earlier comments accusing Petrow

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<v Speaker 1>of being tied to cocaine trafficking. Petro says Trump had

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<v Speaker 1>been confused about the realities in Colombia. Both leaders talked

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<v Speaker 1>up closer cooperation on counter narcotics, but no specific agreements

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<v Speaker 1>have come out of the meeting. I'm Nicole Johnston. This

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<v Speaker 1>is seven am. Thanks for listening.