WEBVTT - Will Trump go to war with Iran?

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<v Speaker 1>Is the world about to see the US intervene in

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<v Speaker 1>another country, this time Iran. US President Donald Trump is

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<v Speaker 1>threatening to take action against the regime, declaring help is

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<v Speaker 1>on the way and by.

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<v Speaker 2>The way, to all Iranian patriots, keep protesting, take over

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<v Speaker 2>your institutions if possible, and save the name of the

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<v Speaker 2>killers and the abusers that are abusing. You're being very

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<v Speaker 2>badly abused.

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<v Speaker 1>Since the end of December, Iran's been rocked by the

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<v Speaker 1>largest protests in decades. The government has responded with brutal force,

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<v Speaker 1>shutting down the internet, killing hundreds of people and detaining

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<v Speaker 1>thousands more. I'm Nicole Johnston and you're listening to seven

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<v Speaker 1>AM today Treta Parsi, an Iranian expert from the Quincy

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<v Speaker 1>Institute in the US, on a regime fighting for survival

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<v Speaker 1>while the world watches to see will this lead to war.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Thursday, January fifteenth. Trader Aaron's been in a communications blackout,

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<v Speaker 1>but enough's leaking out to show what's happening is huge.

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<v Speaker 1>Can you take us through the situation on the ground.

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<v Speaker 3>Yes. So, for about three days, the government completely blacked

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<v Speaker 3>out all Internet communications, even very difficult to even get

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<v Speaker 3>in touch with folks by phone. They even jammed the

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<v Speaker 3>starlink and did so, I think, far more successfully than

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<v Speaker 3>anyone had expected. So for the first twenty four to

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<v Speaker 3>thirty six hours, whatever came out actually came out by

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<v Speaker 3>people who left the country and took the video with

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<v Speaker 3>them on their phones. The image that has emerged, of

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<v Speaker 3>course now is that the government used extreme brutal force

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<v Speaker 3>against protesters. According to the estimate of the US government,

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<v Speaker 3>it was about one thousand, six hundred deaths. I think

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<v Speaker 3>there are human rights organizations that have put it closer

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<v Speaker 3>to two thousands. These are huge numbers. It shows that

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<v Speaker 3>the regime has really probably used the most amount of

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<v Speaker 3>violence than we've seen since nineteen eighty eight towards the

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<v Speaker 3>end of the Iraq War. There's also another element of

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<v Speaker 3>this that is also quite unprecedented, which is that there

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<v Speaker 3>is at least an element of the protesters that also

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<v Speaker 3>have been using a degree of violence that we have

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<v Speaker 3>not seen in previous protests. When you take a look

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<v Speaker 3>at this over the course of the last twenty five years,

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<v Speaker 3>you see a steady radicalization of the protest movement, which

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<v Speaker 3>frankly is mainly driven by the repression of the government itself.

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<v Speaker 1>What is it that's triggered this latest round of protest

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<v Speaker 1>and how did we really end up here?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, the in media trigger was the collapse of the currency,

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<v Speaker 3>which caused shopkeepers and were immediately affected by that to

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<v Speaker 3>start protesting, But it very quickly morphed into much broader protests.

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<v Speaker 3>It is not just about the economy, but about the

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<v Speaker 3>lack of freedom, the lack of political freedoms and the

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<v Speaker 3>Islamic Republic as a whole, with clear calls for the

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<v Speaker 3>downfall of the current regime. It went very fast from

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<v Speaker 3>economic protests to that.

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<v Speaker 2>Now.

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<v Speaker 1>Iran's been run by theocratic clerics since the country had

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<v Speaker 1>an Islamic revolution and overthrew the shower back in nineteen

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<v Speaker 1>seventy nine. We have seen these types of big protests before,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe not on this scale, though. Could you tell us

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<v Speaker 1>about the previous ones and why this one feels so different.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, the biggest process we've seen in the country was

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<v Speaker 3>in two thousand and nine, where the government cheated in

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<v Speaker 3>the elections and ensured that then President Admadinejad essentially one

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<v Speaker 3>a second term, even though everything indicates that he actually

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<v Speaker 3>had not won. You had at one point two million

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<v Speaker 3>people out on the streets in Tehran calling for the

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<v Speaker 3>votes to be counted. You had major protests in twenty

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<v Speaker 3>seventeen over economic issues, and then, of course the twenty

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<v Speaker 3>twenty two protests over the death of Massa Amini, a

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<v Speaker 3>young woman who died in police custody or was killed

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<v Speaker 3>in police custody over what they accused of or failure

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<v Speaker 3>or wearing proper hirdjob.

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<v Speaker 4>Tens of thousands flocked to Massa Ameni's grave just outside

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<v Speaker 4>her hometown of Sekis. This is the year of blood,

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<v Speaker 4>chanted the mourners, the supreme leader will be overthrown.

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<v Speaker 3>Even though they failed to overthrow the government, they absolutely

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<v Speaker 3>succeeded in achieving a cultural revolution in which today the

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<v Speaker 3>government no longer is enforcing the hedejob laws in the

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<v Speaker 3>manner that it was doing before. But this feels different

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<v Speaker 3>for several different reasons. One is, of course, massive speed

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<v Speaker 3>in which it grew. They're also very different for another reasons.

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<v Speaker 3>If you take a look at footage from all of

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<v Speaker 3>the previous protests, they were protests during daytime. These protests,

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<v Speaker 3>except for the first couple of days, were all taking

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<v Speaker 3>place at ninth It makes it much more difficult to

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<v Speaker 3>assess exactly what's going on, and then of course you

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<v Speaker 3>have now slogods that are being heard that were never

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<v Speaker 3>heard before. Maybe not representative of all protesters at all

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<v Speaker 3>in any way, Shop performed, but nevertheless in a noticeable

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<v Speaker 3>way in favor of the sun of the former Shaw.

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<v Speaker 3>That is also something we haven't seen before. Whether that

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<v Speaker 3>is a deeper change or whether that is one of

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<v Speaker 3>the most aggressive ways of insulting the theocracy, It's unclear

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<v Speaker 3>at this point, because the son of the Shaw has

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<v Speaker 3>tried to play a leadership role. He did call for

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<v Speaker 3>people to go out. As I said, this is a war,

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<v Speaker 3>and war has casualties. In fact, in order to preserve

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<v Speaker 3>and protect.

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<v Speaker 5>And minimize the death roll, minimize innocent victims yet again

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<v Speaker 5>be killed by this regime, action is needed.

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<v Speaker 1>How is the regime justifying its brutal response.

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<v Speaker 3>It is justifying it by saying that there are foreign

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<v Speaker 3>elements that are fueling this, that these are not the

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<v Speaker 3>legitimate concerns of people. There's is vandalism, there is violence.

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<v Speaker 6>We have recorded voices of individuals giving orders from abroad

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<v Speaker 6>two terrorist agents instructing them to fight at police forces

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<v Speaker 6>and to fire at demonstrators if police forces were not present.

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<v Speaker 6>Their intention was to spread killing.

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<v Speaker 3>And you know, it is pretty standard for the Rarnan

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<v Speaker 3>government to say that the protests are driven by elements

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<v Speaker 3>on the outside. But for the first time, you actually

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<v Speaker 3>now have Israeli officials and Israeli TV saying that Israel

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<v Speaker 3>is involved in these protests. You have the former head

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<v Speaker 3>of the CIA saying that Israel is involved in these protests.

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<v Speaker 1>The real wild card in all of this now is

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<v Speaker 1>what will Trump do? What's he been saying, and how

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<v Speaker 1>prepared is the US to attack Iran.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, Trump has been saying quite a lot, but one

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<v Speaker 3>of the more important things that he said is that suddenly,

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<v Speaker 3>even though he had earlier on said that he might

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<v Speaker 3>attack Iran again over its nuclear program and over its

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<v Speaker 3>missile program, now suddenly he said that he's going to

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<v Speaker 3>attack Iran. If Therny has killed protesters, then of course

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<v Speaker 3>the Varani has killed the tremendous amount of protesters.

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<v Speaker 2>I think it's already it looks like it.

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<v Speaker 5>There seemed to be some people killed that aren't supposed

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<v Speaker 5>to be killed. These are violent, if you call them leaders,

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<v Speaker 5>I don't know if their leaders are just they rule

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<v Speaker 5>through violence. But we're looking at it very seriously. The

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<v Speaker 5>military is looking at it.

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<v Speaker 3>There's been no military action, but there's been preparation, and

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<v Speaker 3>the United States is probably in a position, if not now,

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<v Speaker 3>within twenty four or forty eight hours, to take on strikes.

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<v Speaker 5>You ask him to say, what will they do, Where

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<v Speaker 5>will we attack where? And at what angle will we

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<v Speaker 5>attack from.

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<v Speaker 3>If Trump thinks that he can do another Venezuela and

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<v Speaker 3>try to do some sort of decapitation of the regime,

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<v Speaker 3>I think the system here on is very different from

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<v Speaker 3>that of Venezuela, much more difficult for the United States

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<v Speaker 3>to do, nor will it necessarily lead to the type

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<v Speaker 3>of transition towards the government that the people want. So

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<v Speaker 3>it's much riskier, and Trump in the past has been

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<v Speaker 3>attracted to bold action that at the end of the day,

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<v Speaker 3>carries very low risk. So it remains unclear whether he

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<v Speaker 3>is bluffing or whether there's a sincerity behind it. From

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<v Speaker 3>his own basis, is not a popular move. They aren't

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<v Speaker 3>understandaby he's involved in more foreign military entanglements since he

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<v Speaker 3>made it clear that he's running into end wars.

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<v Speaker 5>During the four years of the Trump administration, we had

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<v Speaker 5>no terror, We had no wars against other countries, expensive,

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<v Speaker 5>never ending, stupid wars like we had under other presidents.

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<v Speaker 5>I won't say which one.

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<v Speaker 3>That he's going to try to win the Nobel Peace Prize,

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<v Speaker 3>and that he's going to not be the type of

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<v Speaker 3>a president that gets the US dragged into new wars,

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<v Speaker 3>particularly not in the Middle East.

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<v Speaker 2>Coming up?

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<v Speaker 1>Could US intervention lead to civil war and an even

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<v Speaker 1>greater catastrophe for the Middle East? Traitor if the United

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<v Speaker 1>States did intervene, What sort of options would Trump have?

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<v Speaker 1>How could that happen?

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<v Speaker 3>Well? I think some of the things they probably are

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<v Speaker 3>looking at is to see if they can do what

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<v Speaker 3>the Israelis failed to do in June, which was to

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<v Speaker 3>decapitate the regime by taking out as many of its

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<v Speaker 3>key leaders as possible. These Raelis were successful in killing

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<v Speaker 3>about thirty top Ivanian generals and commanders, but that neverthe

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<v Speaker 3>only paralyzed the army and the state apparatus for about

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<v Speaker 3>a couple of hours. The United States obviously has far

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<v Speaker 3>greater capabilities than Israel does, but the United States does

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<v Speaker 3>not have the element of surprise which the Israelis had

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<v Speaker 3>back in the summer. There could also be exactly what

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<v Speaker 3>Trump probably was planning or being advised to do earlier

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<v Speaker 3>on but is go after some nuclear sites and go

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<v Speaker 3>after missile sites and then say that this is being

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<v Speaker 3>done to protect the protesters, even though it doesn't have

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<v Speaker 3>any direct bearing on that. And the degree to which

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<v Speaker 3>the unasitates would have to take them all out quickly

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<v Speaker 3>before the Yvanias started using them to strike at the

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<v Speaker 3>US or at US basis is another element and again

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<v Speaker 3>a much riskier proposition than what he has been pursuing elsewhere.

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<v Speaker 1>More broadly traded, since the war in Gaza, we know

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<v Speaker 1>Iran's been losing its regional influence. Could you take us

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<v Speaker 1>through some of those big moments that have really shaken

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<v Speaker 1>the region to its core over the last couple of years,

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<v Speaker 1>and it hasn't left it fund mentally weakened to try

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<v Speaker 1>and send off any attack by the US.

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<v Speaker 3>So it has suffered some tremendous blows to its regional position.

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<v Speaker 3>A key one, of course, is the Pager attacks against

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<v Speaker 3>the Hesbola leadership that really weaken Hesbola, which was in

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<v Speaker 3>many ways Iran's first line of defense against Israel.

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<v Speaker 7>The leader of Lebanon's Hesbola group, Hassan Nostrada has just

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<v Speaker 7>delivered his first televised speech since the device attacks that

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<v Speaker 7>killed at least thirty two people across the country. Nostrada

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<v Speaker 7>also admitted this week's attacks were an unprecedented blow to

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<v Speaker 7>the resistance movement, but said Hezbolah will not fall.

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<v Speaker 3>The fall of the Asset regime also a very very

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<v Speaker 3>significant blow to Iran's forward defense that they had put together.

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<v Speaker 3>It doesn't necessarily change the picture tremendously for its potential

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<v Speaker 3>to be able to fight back or defend itself against

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<v Speaker 3>the US. And those are two very very significant losses

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<v Speaker 3>that I think account for more of the loss that

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<v Speaker 3>Ivan has suffered. But then there's a new picture in

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<v Speaker 3>the region right now. Countries such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iraq,

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<v Speaker 3>Pakistan are now very concerned that the United States will

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<v Speaker 3>attack Iran. They do not believe that it will lead

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<v Speaker 3>to some sort of a smooth transition to a new

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<v Speaker 3>stable government, but rather that it will lead to a

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<v Speaker 3>regional war, perhaps the civil war in Iran, major refugee flows,

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<v Speaker 3>major instability.

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<v Speaker 1>How could Iran decide to fight back if there was

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<v Speaker 1>a war, where would it want to target?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I think the Iranians probably understand they're not going

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<v Speaker 3>to win a war against the United States. The United

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<v Speaker 3>States is overwhelm mainly powerful. But there's a different way

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<v Speaker 3>that the Ivanians may think that they can win, which

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<v Speaker 3>is that they don't have to defeat the United States militarily,

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<v Speaker 3>and they can't. They just need to make sure that

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<v Speaker 3>they destroy Trump's presidency before they lose the war. If

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<v Speaker 3>this war between the United States and Iran would go

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<v Speaker 3>on for several weeks, perhaps two three months, there would

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<v Speaker 3>be large number of casualties on the US side as well,

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<v Speaker 3>because the Iranians will be targeting American bases in the

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<v Speaker 3>region or other types of assets that the US has.

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<v Speaker 3>This would be devastating for the Trump presidency, who has

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<v Speaker 3>promised that he would get the US out of all

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<v Speaker 3>of these wars, would no longer go back into war

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<v Speaker 3>in the Middle East in particular. And now suddenly, three

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<v Speaker 3>weeks after talking about the Western Hemisphere, the US is

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<v Speaker 3>back bogged down in the war in the Middle East.

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<v Speaker 1>And finally, Trader, does Irun look anything like a regime

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<v Speaker 1>on the brink of collapse or do you think it

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<v Speaker 1>can continue to hold on?

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<v Speaker 3>So in many ways, the regime is actually on the

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<v Speaker 3>brink of collapse. I think they definitely did see themselves

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<v Speaker 3>being in an existential situation. I think they right now

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<v Speaker 3>probably think of themselves that are in a safer situation,

0:13:51.679 --> 0:13:54.080
<v Speaker 3>that they have turned some sort of a corner because

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<v Speaker 3>they clamp down on the protest. But at the same time,

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<v Speaker 3>every time they use this amount of force, and this

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<v Speaker 3>time more than m before, they continue to erod their

0:14:02.400 --> 0:14:05.800
<v Speaker 3>ownly vicimancy. So yes, I think in many ways it

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<v Speaker 3>is on the brink, but it's also been on the

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<v Speaker 3>brink for some time without necessarily collapsing.

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<v Speaker 1>Treeta, thank you so much for joining us.

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<v Speaker 3>Appreciate it, thank you for having me.

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<v Speaker 1>Also in the news, the federal government says it will

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<v Speaker 1>look at stronger legal protections for religious groups, people with

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<v Speaker 1>disability and too LGBTQ plus Australians after new hate speech

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<v Speaker 1>laws pass Parliament. The laws were written in the wake

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<v Speaker 1>of the Bondai beat shootings and will be debated next week.

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<v Speaker 1>The bill is expected to provide protections against anti Semitism

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<v Speaker 1>and speech threatening other racial groups, but its scope has

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<v Speaker 1>prompted calls for broader protections. Prime Minister Anthony Alberesi has

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<v Speaker 1>indicated he expects further legislation will be introduced and Palestinian

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<v Speaker 1>Australian writer run to Abdulphutter is threatening defamation action against

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<v Speaker 1>South Australian Premier Peter Malinowskis in a statement posted to Instagram.

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<v Speaker 1>She claims Malinowskis commented publicly about her character, implying she's

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<v Speaker 1>a terrorist sympathizer, and says her lawyers have now written

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<v Speaker 1>to the Premier. The Premier's comment came amid a mass

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<v Speaker 1>boycott of the Adelaide Writer's Week after Abdulphutter was removed

0:15:28.880 --> 0:15:32.640
<v Speaker 1>from the program. This led to the entire event being canceled.

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks for listening, PATCHA Tomorrow