WEBVTT - What’s going on in Syria?

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<v Speaker 1>From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Tuesday, December three. The government says it will crack

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<v Speaker 1>down on sexual violence in the military and change the

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<v Speaker 1>rules for officers promotion, all part of a bid to

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<v Speaker 1>stop defense personnel self harming and taking their own lives.

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<v Speaker 1>That stories live right now at the Australian dot com Doreyu.

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<v Speaker 1>Just when you thought you had your head around the

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<v Speaker 1>Middle East, now there's fresh conflict in Syria. Dictator Bashah

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<v Speaker 1>al Assad is on a mission to reclaim the city

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<v Speaker 1>of Aleppo from rebels who seized it in a surprise

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<v Speaker 1>raid over the weekend. Assad is backed by Iran, Russia

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<v Speaker 1>and Hesbalah. But they're all a little busy right now.

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<v Speaker 1>Today our chief international correspondent, Cameron Stewart joins me to

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<v Speaker 1>sort out who's who and what they're fighting for. It

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<v Speaker 1>was a stunning and unexpectedly successful assault, the relative stability

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<v Speaker 1>brought about by decades of dictator rule destroyed in a

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<v Speaker 1>matter of days. In Aleppo's town squares, Rebels fired guns

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<v Speaker 1>into the sky. Music blared from vehicles as they skidded

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<v Speaker 1>across concrete and monuments to Syrian president Bashah al Assad

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<v Speaker 1>were toppled for days. The attack went unanswered by Syria's military.

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<v Speaker 1>Its allies in Russia and Iran finally sent reinforcements for

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<v Speaker 1>the regime to Hummer in the nation's northwest. The rebels

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<v Speaker 1>storming into Aleppo on the back of Toyota Hiluxes are

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<v Speaker 1>in Islamist militia called Hayat Tarier a cham HTS. Cameron

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<v Speaker 1>Stewart is the Australian's chief international correspondent.

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<v Speaker 2>When the Syrian Civil War pretty much ended in about

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<v Speaker 2>twenty eighteen, they had a bastion up in the northwest

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<v Speaker 2>of the country and they've had their own little community

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<v Speaker 2>basically that they've run without being harassed by the Syrian government.

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<v Speaker 2>And what they did was they took this opportunity that

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<v Speaker 2>it was a great time to give a go at

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<v Speaker 2>knocking off Bashah l Assad, of course, the Syrian dictator.

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<v Speaker 2>They've been waiting to do this for a long time.

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<v Speaker 2>And so what they did was they charged into Aleppo,

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<v Speaker 2>the huge northern city up there, and they went through

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<v Speaker 2>it in seventy two hours. And I think they even

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<v Speaker 2>shocked themselves how quickly they took the city and all

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<v Speaker 2>of a sudden, you have a civil war which has

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<v Speaker 2>been reignited.

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<v Speaker 1>Syria's civil war began in twenty eleven, growing out of

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<v Speaker 1>the so called Arab Spring uprisings, where mass protests across

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<v Speaker 1>the Middle East began calling for democratic reform. In Syria,

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<v Speaker 1>the protesters were demanding an end to the regime of

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<v Speaker 1>dictator Bashah al Asad, a former ophthalmologist and soldier who's

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<v Speaker 1>been in power since two thousand, when he took over

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<v Speaker 1>from his father, Hafez al Assad. Russia swept in on

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<v Speaker 1>the side of Bashi al Assad, helping him launch a

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<v Speaker 1>ruthless crackdown as the rebellion ballooned into a full blown war.

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<v Speaker 1>From twenty fifteen, Russian airstrikes killed tens of thousands of

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<v Speaker 1>Syrians and shifted the war in Asad's favor. But now

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<v Speaker 1>Russia's busy handling its own brutal war in Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 2>So the situation has come about because of two seismic

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<v Speaker 2>events in the world. One was the October seven Hamas

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<v Speaker 2>massacre of Israelis and also Russia's invasion of Ukraine. So

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<v Speaker 2>what that's done is it's knocked out the three main

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<v Speaker 2>allies of Assad, the three allies who helped him win

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<v Speaker 2>that civil war from twenty eleven to twenty eighteen, and

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<v Speaker 2>they were Hesbalah in Lebanon, and also Iran, and also Russia.

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<v Speaker 2>And each of those allies is now involved fighting against democracies,

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<v Speaker 2>very much weakened, very much distracted, and very much not

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<v Speaker 2>in the mood to be sending an awful lot of

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<v Speaker 2>military assistance as they did last time to Asad. So

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<v Speaker 2>suddenly he now finds himself much more alone than he

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<v Speaker 2>ever was, with this rebel group advancing very quickly towards him.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's talk about that trio cam Iran, Hesbala and Russia.

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<v Speaker 1>Hezbla is essentially a puppet of Iran. It's the way

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<v Speaker 1>Iran flexes its muscle in Lebanon and therefore inflicts pain

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<v Speaker 1>on Israel, on Iran's behalf. But what's Russia's role in

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<v Speaker 1>this game?

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<v Speaker 2>Russia, It considers Syria a very valuable, its most valuable

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<v Speaker 2>ally in the region. And in twenty fifteen, Russia effectively

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<v Speaker 2>turned around the civil war in Asad's favor by providing

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<v Speaker 2>troops and air support. And you might recall very very

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<v Speaker 2>vigorous and quite brutal Russian bombing of Syrian cities and

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<v Speaker 2>that really did turn the war in Assards. In fact, frankly,

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<v Speaker 2>it saved him as a president. So he's been very

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<v Speaker 2>grateful to Russia ever since. Now Russia is still its biggest,

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<v Speaker 2>his biggest supporter. It still has warplanes in the country

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<v Speaker 2>and in fact, we've actually seen some of these planes

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<v Speaker 2>being deployed to bomb Aleppo in the last few days,

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<v Speaker 2>because after the rebels took it over. But the thing is,

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<v Speaker 2>the Russians took a lot of the military support they

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<v Speaker 2>had in Syria out of Syria and brought it back

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<v Speaker 2>to Russia to be deployed.

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<v Speaker 3>Against Ukraine in the war against Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 2>And so there are far fewer Russian forces now in

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<v Speaker 2>Syria than there were before, and it really is an

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<v Speaker 2>open question as to how much use they are going

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<v Speaker 2>to be. Certainly there'll be much use, much less used

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<v Speaker 2>to Asad than they were last time.

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<v Speaker 1>And what's in it for Vladimir Persian to be propping

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<v Speaker 1>up for al Assad.

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<v Speaker 2>He wants to be a geostrategic player, He wants to

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<v Speaker 2>have influence around all of Russia's region and with Syria,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, he has a base there that he can

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<v Speaker 2>propagate Moscow's interests political, strategic, economic from that base, and

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<v Speaker 2>he is He worries that if he loses Assad, then

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<v Speaker 2>Russia loses its influence in the Middle East.

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<v Speaker 1>The rebel army that's taken Aleppo back has connections to Turkey.

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<v Speaker 1>What do we know about that relationship.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, it's a very shady relationship. Before this group HTS

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<v Speaker 2>which is what the rebel group is. It's an offshoot

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<v Speaker 2>of the Nusra Front, which in fact was allied to

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<v Speaker 2>Al Qaedra at one point, although they are distancing themselves

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<v Speaker 2>very much from that. They say they are a much

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<v Speaker 2>more moderate group. But they're still listed as a terror

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<v Speaker 2>group by the United States, and they are being backed

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<v Speaker 2>by Turkey, but we don't quite know to what extent

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<v Speaker 2>they're being backed by Turkey. Turkey does not like Asad,

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<v Speaker 2>it wants Assad out, but how much it actually likes

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<v Speaker 2>this group is very unclear too, because you have an

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<v Speaker 2>Islamist group that is labeled as a terror organization fighting Assad,

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<v Speaker 2>who of course is backed by Russia, Iran and HESBLA,

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<v Speaker 2>and of course is no friend of the West either.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up, the rebel militia was formally linked to Al Qaeda,

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<v Speaker 1>So is it going to be kinder to civilians than

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<v Speaker 1>side that's after the break. Presumably the enemies of Bashah

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<v Speaker 1>alas Sade, for example, the United States and perhaps Israel

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<v Speaker 1>would be glad that there's a distraction going on for

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<v Speaker 1>him now, that that Syria is now riven again by

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<v Speaker 1>civil war, and that he'll have to turn his focus

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<v Speaker 1>on defeating this insurgency in Aleppo. But what does it

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<v Speaker 1>mean for the rest of the region? Cam If anything.

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<v Speaker 2>It certainly destabilizes the region Claire. It's amazing how it's

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<v Speaker 2>been like this ever since October seven. It has spread

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<v Speaker 2>like a bushfire, fairly slowly. Obviously into Gaza. We've had

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<v Speaker 2>the warring Gaza, then we had it spread into Lebanon.

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<v Speaker 2>We've had the Hooties in Yemen being attacking and being bombed.

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<v Speaker 2>We've had Iranian bat militia in Syria and in Iraq

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<v Speaker 2>attack Israel. I mean, the region is very slowly going

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<v Speaker 2>up in flames, and it's getting larger and larger with

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<v Speaker 2>every passing month. And so to have the possibility of

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<v Speaker 2>another civil war in Syria is hugely destabilizing for the

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<v Speaker 2>entire region. And we don't know yet of course what

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<v Speaker 2>where this offensive will go. I think the rebels have

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<v Speaker 2>surprised themselves by going so quickly so far, and so

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<v Speaker 2>it's going to be interesting to see whether they want

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<v Speaker 2>to keep pushing on towards Damascus to really threaten Assad's

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<v Speaker 2>actual existence. And of course it's unclear to what degree

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<v Speaker 2>the allies of Asad will come to his aid, because

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<v Speaker 2>as we said, they are so weak and compared to

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<v Speaker 2>what they once were. So will Assad actually mount a

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<v Speaker 2>major offensive to try and retake a leper or is

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<v Speaker 2>he not strong enough? And they're the questions I think

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<v Speaker 2>in the next three or four days we're going to

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<v Speaker 2>see answered.

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<v Speaker 1>Ordinary Syrians have suffered terribly under Bashah al Assad. He's

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<v Speaker 1>a brutal dictator. His regime has been accused of shocking

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<v Speaker 1>crimes of terror against his own people. But is there

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<v Speaker 1>any suggestion that life would be better for them under

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<v Speaker 1>the rebel army.

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<v Speaker 2>People are actually fleeing the government controlled areas Assyria and

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<v Speaker 2>going up to the rebel held areas that includes in

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<v Speaker 2>the northwest which are controlled by the Hts, and in

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<v Speaker 2>the northeast of.

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<v Speaker 3>Syria, which is controlled by the Kurds.

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<v Speaker 2>And the reason why they're doing that is because the

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<v Speaker 2>basics of life up there are seen to be better

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<v Speaker 2>than they are in the government controlled areas, and that

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<v Speaker 2>means very simple things like electricity and water supplies, etc.

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<v Speaker 2>They're much better organized than they are in the government

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<v Speaker 2>controlled areas, and I think that flight speaks a lot

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<v Speaker 2>to the fact that Assad is very much on the nose,

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<v Speaker 2>and that's partly because he promised to be the civil

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<v Speaker 2>war to improve the economy.

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<v Speaker 3>It really didn't happen.

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<v Speaker 2>The economic conditions across the government controlled areas are very

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<v Speaker 2>very grim, and people who have been cheering their rebels

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<v Speaker 2>as they came in to a Leppo and move further south,

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<v Speaker 2>locals have been going out and cheering them. So I

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<v Speaker 2>think that says a lot about how Asad is on

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<v Speaker 2>the nose.

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<v Speaker 1>You mentioned the Kurds. That's an ethnic group that's been

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<v Speaker 1>fighting for their own homeland for many, many generations. Now

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<v Speaker 1>they're managing to run what seems like a fairly functional

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<v Speaker 1>state in the northeast of Syria. Who's backing the Curds

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<v Speaker 1>now and what role do they play in relation to

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<v Speaker 1>the other side regime.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, they've basically got the northeast of Syria. Now that

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<v Speaker 2>was sort of after the Civil war, they just occupied

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<v Speaker 2>that the government troops could not come back and retake it,

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<v Speaker 2>so it's almost like an autonomous region for them at

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<v Speaker 2>the moment.

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<v Speaker 3>Clear, even though it's very unofficial.

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<v Speaker 2>The US, though, has backed the Kurds, and in fact

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<v Speaker 2>there's US troops stationed in the eastern there's several hundred

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<v Speaker 2>of them there. Now there's no suggestion that the US

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<v Speaker 2>is going to suddenly back the curves to move against

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<v Speaker 2>a sad but they are a big player in this

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<v Speaker 2>whole equation, and you know they're sitting there and they

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<v Speaker 2>don't want to sard in power either. So there's lots

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<v Speaker 2>of opposition groups who have different ideologies up in northern

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<v Speaker 2>Syria that want a side out of power, but they

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<v Speaker 2>don't necessarily agree with each other.

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<v Speaker 1>Cameron Stewart is The Australian's chief international correspondent. The Family

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<v Speaker 1>Court has granted cross sex hormone treatment to a gender

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<v Speaker 1>dys for a fifteen year old born a boy but

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<v Speaker 1>who has identified as a girl since the age of three.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a complex case and the judge says there's a

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<v Speaker 1>up with regret that's an exclusive live now at the

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<v Speaker 1>Australian dot Com dot a