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Sean Aylmer: Welcome to the Fear and Greed Business Interview. I'm Sean Aylmer.

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Sean Aylmer: Nike is one of the most recognizable brands in the world.

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Sean Aylmer: It's also one of the most interesting companies on Wall Street.

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Sean Aylmer: Its share price has fallen sixty percent from its high

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Sean Aylmer: in twenty twenty one, with a whole range of challenges,

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Sean Aylmer: from slowing sales and an increasing competition to a sales

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Sean Aylmer: strategy that basically just didn't work. Today, I want to

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Sean Aylmer: take a closer look at Nike, at the job ahead

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Sean Aylmer: for the new CEO, and whether this iconic brand represents

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Sean Aylmer: an opportunity for investors or not. Remember this is general

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Sean Aylmer: information only, and you should always seek professional advice before

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Sean Aylmer: making investment decisions. Josh Gilbert is a market analyst at

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Sean Aylmer: social investment network e Toro, and he's with me in

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Sean Aylmer: the studio. Josh, welcome back to Fear and Greed.

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Josh Gilbert: Thanks very much, Sean. Good to be back.

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Sean Aylmer: You're an expert, Josh on Nike, give us the potted

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Sean Aylmer: history in elevated pitch style.

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Josh Gilbert: Well, I don't claim to be an expert because I

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Josh Gilbert: call it Nike. So people, which is which is it? Well,

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Josh Gilbert: I've been told that it's Nike I think it's after

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Josh Gilbert: a Greek god apparently, right, But yeah, look, I mean

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Josh Gilbert: a really really bad couple of years. Essentially, the root

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Josh Gilbert: of the problem is that Nike shifted to this sort

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Josh Gilbert: of direct to consumer strategy that essentially didn't work. So

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Josh Gilbert: after Covid, I think they tried to move a little

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Josh Gilbert: bit more online and basically took shoes off of foot

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Josh Gilbert: locker and basically took it out of their stores think

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Josh Gilbert: wholesale relationships. What that allowed other brands to do is

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Josh Gilbert: sort of come in and take that sort of shelf space, right,

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Josh Gilbert: So some of those sort of up and coming competitors,

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Josh Gilbert: Hoker On, running New Balance, these names sort of really

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Josh Gilbert: came back to the fold and took over some of

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Josh Gilbert: that shelf space and allowed them to get into the ground.

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Josh Gilbert: At the same time, they've also faced challenges recently from

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Josh Gilbert: heavy inventory perspective. So again, the sales have slowed you

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Josh Gilbert: pretty heavily, which means they've got high inventry. They've had

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Josh Gilbert: to shift that inventory. That means they're having to discount items,

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Josh Gilbert: which is affecting margins and therefore affecting earnings. And then

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Josh Gilbert: at the same time they're dealing with really really you know,

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Josh Gilbert: tough sales in China. You know, last quarter sales in

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Josh Gilbert: China dropped by about seventeen percent. Obviously, the economy there

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Josh Gilbert: is is struggling, you know, pretty badly, and they're getting

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Josh Gilbert: a lot of competition in the region, right, So there's

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Josh Gilbert: other competitors sort of coming in. There's a company called

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Josh Gilbert: Anti Sports in China which is growing, you know, pretty

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Josh Gilbert: rapidly in the region as well. So basically a strategy

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Josh Gilbert: that didn't work and there now competition really really coming

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Josh Gilbert: up fast.

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Sean Aylmer: Okay, so let's take a step way back. So Nike's

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Sean Aylmer: late sixties early seventies, Phil Night famously paid like thirty

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Sean Aylmer: five bucks for the swoosh or something like that. What

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Sean Aylmer: was it that made Nike such a household name. It

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Sean Aylmer: wasn't in the seventies or the eighties, to be honest,

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Sean Aylmer: and edits really had that tied up. But you know, nineties, noughties,

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Sean Aylmer: et cetera, Nike was it.

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Josh Gilbert: Yeah, And what they did really well is they and

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Josh Gilbert: I think again this is the reason why they struggled recently,

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Josh Gilbert: is they really tapped into the sports market very well.

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Josh Gilbert: So they made some really great movements. And if you've

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Josh Gilbert: read Phil Night's book Shoe Dog he took, and they're

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Josh Gilbert: about building relationships with athletes, So it talks about sort

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Josh Gilbert: of trying to steal market share off of Vali Das

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Josh Gilbert: by going to you know, the top runners, by going

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Josh Gilbert: to you know, the top sports people. So if we

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Josh Gilbert: think back over history, right, Lebron James, Michael Jordan, you know.

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Sean Aylmer: We mentioned l I'm Strong or not.

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Josh Gilbert: Maybe not, but you know Rafanadal, Roger Federer, right, so

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Josh Gilbert: we could we could go on. But they have some

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Josh Gilbert: of the best names in the industry and that has

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Josh Gilbert: basically led to this sort of brand becoming, you know,

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Josh Gilbert: a household name because it's you know that these were

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Josh Gilbert: posters right on your wall when they were you know,

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Josh Gilbert: head to toe in Nike. So I think that was

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Josh Gilbert: really good. And what they've done recently is with that

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Josh Gilbert: sort of direct to consumer strategy, they moved from sort

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Josh Gilbert: of a sportswear focus to more of a gender focus,

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Josh Gilbert: so it was sort of items that weren't necessarily sportswear,

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Josh Gilbert: and they're now looking to shift back to that. And

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Josh Gilbert: I think that's a really great strategy to dial back

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Josh Gilbert: in on some of those sports that we all know

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Josh Gilbert: and love because at the moment they are sort of

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Josh Gilbert: losing ground to some of those competitors. But yeah, it

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Josh Gilbert: really built its sort of brand name of being you know,

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Josh Gilbert: quality products and basically all of the top stars wearing

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Josh Gilbert: their goods.

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Sean Aylmer: So am I allowed to ask you the person involved

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Sean Aylmer: in this, who was the CEO or the CMO that

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Sean Aylmer: pushed them down this path? And is that person still

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Sean Aylmer: a bit that's a good question.

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Josh Gilbert: I'm that's justly shure on that. But look, Elliott Hill,

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Josh Gilbert: I think at the time it was the CEO. I

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Josh Gilbert: think his name was Jason donah Hue. I think he's

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Josh Gilbert: been replaced. So Elliott Hill is sort of coming back

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Josh Gilbert: to the fold he'd previously been with Nike in you know,

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Josh Gilbert: lots of different roles over many many years. Started as

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Josh Gilbert: in nintern you know, twenty thirty years ago. He is

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Josh Gilbert: now sort of coming back in to take the realm

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Josh Gilbert: as CEO, and he's essentially looking to sort of move

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Josh Gilbert: Nike back to the roots, go back to sort of

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Josh Gilbert: the sports where function try and reconnect with that younger audience,

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Josh Gilbert: move through sort of innovation a little bit more. They've

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Josh Gilbert: lacked a bit of innovation compared to some of those

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Josh Gilbert: other brands, especially from a running perspective. In recent years,

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Josh Gilbert: at a time when running has really gained a lot

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Josh Gilbert: of traction around the world, think about sort of the

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Josh Gilbert: growth of run clubs globally. It's become a bit of

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Josh Gilbert: a trend now a lot of people looking after their

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Josh Gilbert: health and fitness will never so really looking to reconnect

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Josh Gilbert: that younger audience, innovate once again and go back to

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Josh Gilbert: sort of its roots that we sort of all knew

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Josh Gilbert: and loved for a long time. Sports where you know,

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Josh Gilbert: and also sort of going back to some of those

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Josh Gilbert: you know, really good brands, because in the last sort

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Josh Gilbert: of year or so, Ali Das has done really really well.

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Josh Gilbert: Sales have grown.

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Sean Aylmer: Why have editors done so well?

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Josh Gilbert: So some of the traditional shoes, so the sort of

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Josh Gilbert: the Gazelles and the Sambas, they've really resonated well with

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Josh Gilbert: the younger audience. But they're not sports shoes, correct, Yeah,

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Josh Gilbert: leisure exactly, so they've done very well in that sense. Again,

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Josh Gilbert: there's still nowhere near that. I think Ali Dass is

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Josh Gilbert: still half of what Nike's market share is in the

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Josh Gilbert: footwear market.

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Sean Aylmer: So you've got me saying not Nike, yeah, changing something

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Sean Aylmer: like that.

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Josh Gilbert: I think global sports where it is. I think footwear

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Josh Gilbert: is a little bit less now, right but I think, yeah,

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Josh Gilbert: Adidas is still that closest competitor. But yeah, I think

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Josh Gilbert: from a leisure where brand, I think we see it

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Josh Gilbert: a little bit more. And I think you mentioned this earlier,

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Josh Gilbert: but from a running perspective, people are seeing it less.

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Josh Gilbert: You know, they're turning towards Hoker, They're turning towards on Running,

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Josh Gilbert: these up and coming brands that have maybe innovated a

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Josh Gilbert: little bit more on the running scene than what they

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Josh Gilbert: have done at Nike.

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Sean Aylmer: We'll take a quick break, Josh and be back in

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Sean Aylmer: a minute. I'm speaking just Gilbert from E Toro. So

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Sean Aylmer: you mentioned some of the new brands, Hokker on running,

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Sean Aylmer: New Balance seems to be having a split again Essex

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Sean Aylmer: to some extinct. How tough is that marketplace and it's

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Sean Aylmer: a global marketplace.

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Josh Gilbert: Too, Yeah, absolutely, it is, it is, and it's the

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Josh Gilbert: competition is rife right now. But I think some of

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Josh Gilbert: those older brands have reinvented themselves. You mentioned Assex New Balance,

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Josh Gilbert: these were once sort of scene as you know, older brands.

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Josh Gilbert: New Balance was dubbed sort of the dad shoe for

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Josh Gilbert: many many years, and it's sort of really coming back

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Josh Gilbert: to the fold again, and you know, sort of younger

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Josh Gilbert: demographics are wearing them. And I think that's a you know,

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Josh Gilbert: shout out to the team. They're the innovation focusing on

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Josh Gilbert: that younger demographic, trying to maybe gain a bit of

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Josh Gilbert: market ground where Nike had lost a bit attraction. Maybe

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Josh Gilbert: they'd taken their eye off the ball a little bit.

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Josh Gilbert: So they've got a lot of work to do in

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Josh Gilbert: that sense. And you know, as I say, Margins are

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Josh Gilbert: coming under a lot of pressure at Nike, and you know,

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Josh Gilbert: in terms of trying to go back to that innovation,

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Josh Gilbert: that means it's going to cost them a little bit

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Josh Gilbert: more money. They're going to have to sort of, you know,

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Josh Gilbert: go back and invest in the right areas and that

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Josh Gilbert: will put Margins on the pressure moving forward.

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Sean Aylmer: Okay, so is it investable it's share prices off sixty percentage?

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Sean Aylmer: You say, yeah, it's cry and reinvented itself to go

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Sean Aylmer: a new CEO, albeit a veteran, who has taken the

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Sean Aylmer: strategy back to a little bit more where it was

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Sean Aylmer: before in terms of chasing sports stars. Is it something

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Sean Aylmer: that investors should look at, at least?

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Josh Gilbert: I think it's definitely one for the watchlist. Yet, Look,

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Josh Gilbert: a very few companies and brands have this sort of

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Josh Gilbert: dominance and global footprint that Nike has, and I think

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Josh Gilbert: that's really important. This is a brand that has been

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Josh Gilbert: around for many, many years. I still think the quality

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Josh Gilbert: is there in its products. Again, the price point is

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Josh Gilbert: sort of that mid range, it's not of that top

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Josh Gilbert: end like a Lulu Lemon would be in the active

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Josh Gilbert: where market. So I think it's certainly a good brand. Look,

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Josh Gilbert: this is you know, part of the pun here, but

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Josh Gilbert: this is gonna be a bit of a marathon. It's

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Josh Gilbert: not gonna be a sprint right for Nike, you know,

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Josh Gilbert: longer term, because this is going to be something that's

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Josh Gilbert: going to take, you know, a time for Elliott Hill

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Josh Gilbert: to sort of really bring it back to its roots,

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Josh Gilbert: go back to trying to target that younger demographic, find

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Josh Gilbert: out what they want, bring that innovation back through running

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Josh Gilbert: and you know, try and bring the sports back into

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Josh Gilbert: it and not just sort of be that leisure brand

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Josh Gilbert: that it's focused on and not done so well in

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Josh Gilbert: in sort of recent months. But look, with the you know,

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Josh Gilbert: the thought of tariffs coming through as well, that's a

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Josh Gilbert: bit of a worry think about China as a big

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Josh Gilbert: market for them, and you know Mexico, you know, in

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Josh Gilbert: America and sort of northern South America both big markets

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Josh Gilbert: for Nike. So I think bottom line is going to

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Josh Gilbert: be a bit of a challenge still, but I think

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Josh Gilbert: there is an opportunity for investors here with this company

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Josh Gilbert: that is down sixty percent off its highs. You know,

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Josh Gilbert: in my view, it's a brand that still dominates the

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Josh Gilbert: sportswear market and would be something I would be keeping

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Josh Gilbert: it on.

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Sean Aylmer: You mentioned China a couple of times. How important is

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Sean Aylmer: China to Nike is.

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Josh Gilbert: Yeah, yeah, yeah, We've tripped back and forth. Yea, yeah, look, no,

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Josh Gilbert: it is. It is a big market for them. Obviously,

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Josh Gilbert: anyone that sort of followed the China story will know

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Josh Gilbert: that retail sales have really struggled there. The whole economy

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Josh Gilbert: has sort of come under a fair bit of pressure

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Josh Gilbert: in the last year or so, last couple of years

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Josh Gilbert: really ever since sort of the coming out of COVID.

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Josh Gilbert: It is a big market, It is a big sort

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Josh Gilbert: of a region where they generate a fair bit of revenue,

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Josh Gilbert: and when sales sort of continue to decline, it is

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Josh Gilbert: going to come under a bit of pressure for us,

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Josh Gilbert: we're sort of looking towards a potential stimulus package coming through.

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Josh Gilbert: That's something that we believe they're going to need to deliver,

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Josh Gilbert: especially with the roll out of tariffs coming you know,

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Josh Gilbert: probably very very soon. So from our perspective, that is

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Josh Gilbert: something that will help stimulate retail sales, will help the consumer,

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Josh Gilbert: will help consumption, and that should drive sales back in

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Josh Gilbert: the region.

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Sean Aylmer: Just what's your favorite running show? You look very fit.

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Josh Gilbert: Well, actually, I do have two pair of Nikes. Actually, yeah,

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Josh Gilbert: I went to the gym this morning. I had a

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Josh Gilbert: pair Nikes on.

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Sean Aylmer: So yeah, I've become so I've become an on running person.

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Sean Aylmer: I went poker for a little while, but I think

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Sean Aylmer: on running maybe I should be trying Nikey's perheps.

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Josh Gilbert: Yeah. I reckon if you went to a run club

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Josh Gilbert: around Sydney, there's a few of them, I reckon it

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Josh Gilbert: would be similar. I reckon you'd see most people and

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Josh Gilbert: hookers and on runnings, et cetera. So yeah, I think so.

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Sean Aylmer: Josh, thank you for talking to fear and greed pleasure.

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Josh Gilbert: Thanks.

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Sean Aylmer: So that was Josh Gilbert, market analyst at Social investment

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Sean Aylmer: network e Toro. This is the fear and Greed Business Interview.

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Sean Aylmer: Remember this is general information only, and should always seek

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Sean Aylmer: professional advice before investing. Join us every morning for the

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Sean Aylmer: full episode our Fear and Greed daily business news for

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Sean Aylmer: people who make their own decisions. I'm Sean Elmer. Enjoy

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Sean Aylmer: your day,