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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed, the Aussie dollar hits its

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Speaker 1: lowest level since the pandemic. Economists think that weaker than

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Speaker 1: expected inflation might mean an interest rate cut next month,

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Speaker 1: and Opposition leader Peter Dutton hits the new year in

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Speaker 1: full campaign mode. Plus the local share market makes solid gains.

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Speaker 1: Star Entertainment sits on the brink of administration, and Meta

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Speaker 1: ends its fact checking operations as it looks to get

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Speaker 1: closer to Donald Trump. Welcome to Fear and Greed, daily

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Speaker 1: business news for people who make their own decisions. It

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Speaker 1: is Monday, the thirteenth of January twenty twenty five. I'm

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Speaker 1: Michael Thompson and good morning Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael, Sean.

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Speaker 1: We're back with our regular programs, although the morning shows

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Speaker 1: this week will be a touch abbreviated, just a little

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Speaker 1: bit shorter of the normal, but back to full length

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Speaker 1: everything normal next week, full shows, daily interviews, afternoon editions,

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Speaker 1: ask Fear and Greed plenty more. There is an interview

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Speaker 1: still as well this week, so there's still plenty of

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Speaker 1: good listening. There's no shortage level in Fear and Greed.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and look, we neither of us have really been

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Speaker 2: working full time over the last three or four weeks.

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Speaker 2: Now we're back. So much has happened in the past

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Speaker 2: four weeks, and it's not just Donald Trump and Elon Musk,

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Speaker 2: so much other stuff going on in markets, in the economy,

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Speaker 2: in politics here locally. It's just a good time to

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Speaker 2: be back.

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Speaker 1: Michael, Yeah, it certainly is. I'm genuinely excited about it, Sean.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning, the Aussie dollar has hit

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Speaker 1: its lowest level since the COVID nineteen pandemic, heading towards

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Speaker 1: sixty one US since this is extraordinary.

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Speaker 2: Ouch sixty one point three eight cents on Friday now

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Speaker 2: September last year was more than sixty nine cents, but

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Speaker 2: back down towards sixty one cents. The US sense now

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Speaker 2: against the Euro in the end, it's off as well,

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Speaker 2: not quite as much, certainly not as much as the

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Speaker 2: US dollar. A lot of that is about the of

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Speaker 2: the US dollar. What is a really good measure is

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Speaker 2: a trade weighted index. It actually measures the Australian currency

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Speaker 2: against all our training partners. We fell below sixty on

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Speaker 2: the twy basis on Friday. That's been happening on and

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Speaker 2: off for the last two or three weeks. Only two

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Speaker 2: times in the last twenty years have we regally been

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Speaker 2: below sixty in terms of twy one was COVID one

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Speaker 2: was a global financial crisis. These ain't good. Not good

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Speaker 2: for holiday makers clearly, especially if you're going to the US.

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Speaker 2: Bad news there, Michael. The main reason for this is

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Speaker 2: the benign inflation figures that we got last week. We'll

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Speaker 2: talk more about that in a moment. Also, the outlook

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Speaker 2: for commodities ain't that good. The Aussie dollar is a

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Speaker 2: commodity currency. They have commodities to do well. If core

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Speaker 2: prices are all prices, goal prices go up, then the

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Speaker 2: Aussie dollar tends to follow it. That's not happening at

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Speaker 2: the moment. Is this good or bad? It's actually good

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Speaker 2: for the economy. Imports become more expensive, so people buy

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Speaker 2: local stuff, Our exports become cheaper. It's actually a boost

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Speaker 2: for economic growth. So if you're having a holiday, not

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Speaker 2: so good, but in terms of the economy, not so bad.

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Speaker 1: Sean. I love the fact that you asked yourself whether

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Speaker 1: it's all bad. It feels as though our first kind

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Speaker 1: of proper showback for the year, and you're trying to

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Speaker 1: prove that I'm not really needed anymore.

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Speaker 2: Well now I was having that you jump in.

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Speaker 1: I'm just listening. I've forgotten how to talk to you,

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Speaker 1: and I've just become a listener now over the last

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Speaker 1: few weeks I've been listening to the interviews that you've

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Speaker 1: been doing. Anyway, I will pick up on one thing

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Speaker 1: that you said about the boost for economic growth. That

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Speaker 1: boost could well work against the Reserve Bank of Australia

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Speaker 1: cutting interest rates anytime soon, couldn't it.

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Speaker 2: Yes, there's plenty going on, So the main influences on

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Speaker 2: interest rates at the moment, Inflation remains number one. Last week,

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Speaker 2: the Australian Bureau Statistics monthly CPI Consumer Price Index number

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Speaker 2: came out, came in at two point three percent, obviously

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Speaker 2: well within that two to three percent big target range.

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Speaker 2: But we know from last year that headline rate, that

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Speaker 2: two point three percent headline rate is all about energy rebates.

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Speaker 2: You've got to look at the underlying rate that came

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Speaker 2: in at three point two percent in November, down from

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Speaker 2: three and a half percent in October. Only A partial

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Speaker 2: series tells part of the story only. But Michael, in

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Speaker 2: this case, the trend is our friend. Inflation is heading

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Speaker 2: in the right direction, So that suggests that maybe the

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Speaker 2: Reserve Bank will shift on rates. Is the weekly Aussie

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Speaker 2: dollar will give the Reserve Bank pause for thought, though

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Speaker 2: it actually acts as a stimulator to the economy. That's

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Speaker 2: a good thing, but the Reserve Bank needs to take

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Speaker 2: that into account when it's thinking about inflation. Ain Zed

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Speaker 2: chief economists last week, Quarie's chief economists last week both

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Speaker 2: came out and said, we think that interest rates might

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Speaker 2: actually fall next month. February next month, not March, not April,

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Speaker 2: February there could be a rate cut. Bond markets of

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Speaker 2: price in a seventy two percent chance of rate cut

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Speaker 2: next month. It is a live option.

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Speaker 1: Do you remember a time when there's been so much

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Speaker 1: uncertainty over interest rates because we have had, now oversay

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Speaker 1: the last year, so many predictions as to when rates

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Speaker 1: were going to come down, and it seems that every

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Speaker 1: single economist, that every single bank has had to reassess

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Speaker 1: their forecasts every single time another piece of data comes out.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think it's actually longer than that.

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Speaker 2: It's ever since COVID, because remember, we're wondering when rates

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Speaker 2: were going to go up, So we're going to go

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Speaker 2: up they're going to go up, and they didn't, and

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Speaker 2: then suddenly they shot up. And what it is. Ever

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Speaker 2: since the GFC, there's been a really abnormal period of

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Speaker 2: montrepolicy rates have been low since then. We're back to

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Speaker 2: the new normal, which is the pre two thousand and

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Speaker 2: seven period. And it's a guessing game again.

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Speaker 1: So do you think economists then have a harder job

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Speaker 1: now than they did, say, fifteen years ago, twenty years ago.

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Speaker 2: I think it's about the same as twenty years ago,

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Speaker 2: but harder than ten years ago. So the POSTGFC two

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Speaker 2: thousand and seven to twenty twenty one, that was the

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Speaker 2: easy time.

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Speaker 1: Okay, al right now, Sean, we are going to take

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Speaker 1: a very quick break. We have a lot still to discuss.

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Speaker 1: We're talking Peter Dutton's vision for Australia, We're talking about

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Speaker 1: Facebook and Donald Trump. So much still to come. We'll

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Speaker 1: be back in a moment with the rest of the

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Speaker 1: day's business news. Sean oppositionally to Peter Dutton, has outlined

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Speaker 1: his vision for Australia in a major speech yesterday, saying

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Speaker 1: he will focus on tax, migration and education.

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Speaker 2: It sunds like there's an election around the corner.

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Speaker 1: It does just have that ring to it, doesn't it.

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Speaker 1: These are the big issues, aren't they?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, he was speaking in Melbourne. Is He said

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Speaker 2: things like it's the last chance to reverse the economy

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Speaker 2: and social decline of Australia. He said Australia may never

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Speaker 2: never recover if Anthony Alberize he's reelected. A sliding doors moment,

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Speaker 2: another favorite of mine. Talk about the views, values and

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Speaker 2: visions of every day Australians. He talked about anythoningy alb

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Speaker 2: and easy being the weakest ever prime minister. Very heavy

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Speaker 2: on vision, very heavy on vision. Talked about small government

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Speaker 2: using business to drive growth, lower and simpler taxes. Family

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Speaker 2: is the mainstay of society. A late nation within its

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Speaker 2: means nothing non policy, I mean tax, migration and education. Yep.

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Speaker 2: But don't try and dig deeper into yesterday's speech because

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Speaker 2: there's nothing on those policies as such. It was significant

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Speaker 2: that it was in Melbourne because the Coalition hasn't done

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Speaker 2: well minute this current parliament. There are thirty nine seats

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Speaker 2: in Victoria. It has just eleven, mostly Labor has, the

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Speaker 2: Greens has and the Teals also have some. The opposition

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Speaker 2: hopes to win seats like chisholm Aston, Goldstein mckewen sort

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Speaker 2: of Melbourne seats. They're really hoping for that, and so

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Speaker 2: the fact that yesterday he came in more or less

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Speaker 2: launched the year in Melbourne is very significant and he's

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Speaker 2: on campaign footing and I'm sure Anythony albanisis as well.

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Speaker 1: So did you actually refer to it as a sliding

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Speaker 1: doors moment?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, You've got to love that because that term did

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Speaker 1: actually come from the movie. It wasn't something that was

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Speaker 1: around before that. The Gwyneth Paltrow movie actually defined that.

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Speaker 1: Now you've got kind of would be prime ministers quoting

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Speaker 1: it as though it is just a term that has

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Speaker 1: just entirely entered the everyday vernacula.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, totally. I never liked that movie.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, but you're a terrible judge of films because you

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Speaker 1: haven't seen any. I'm amazed that you've seen sliding doors,

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Speaker 1: to be honest, reruns.

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Speaker 2: I actually saw Gladiator too over the break. Well that's

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Speaker 2: not even true. I saw about forty five minutes of it,

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Speaker 2: but it just wasn't holding my attention.

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Speaker 1: God, God, we've got a lot to cover this year, Sean.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about the share market. Shall we. The local market,

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Speaker 1: you've got to say started twenty twenty five reasonably well,

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Speaker 1: although it's quite away from the high December of early

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Speaker 1: December last year.

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Speaker 2: Yes, so let's say it almost hit eighty five hundred

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Speaker 2: early in December last year. Six weeks ago it fell

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Speaker 2: to below eighty one hundred just before Christmas. It's now

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Speaker 2: around eighty three hundred, so halfway between that point. So

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Speaker 2: I suppose you know, the first couple of weeks it's

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Speaker 2: been okay, it's up about a little over one percent

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Speaker 2: this so far this year, the real estate investment trust

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Speaker 2: the property companies have done best, and that's on this

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Speaker 2: interest rate speculation. Energy companies have done pretty well too.

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Speaker 2: That's because prices are a bit better than the financials

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Speaker 2: and healthcare. Think of the big banks there. They've actually

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Speaker 2: done pretty well so far this year too. Now that's

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Speaker 2: on the back of expectations of our interest rates. Financials

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Speaker 2: and healthcare is get hit by that. Those two sectors

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Speaker 2: were big, big winners last year. You can't really expect

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Speaker 2: them to repeat that this year, but they've started off

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Speaker 2: pretty well. Worse to have been utilities and staples consumer staples.

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Speaker 2: So I think Woolly's calls. They're not secl cool. They

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Speaker 2: just putter along the whole time, so they tend to

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Speaker 2: underperform when interest rates start falling. Very very difficult to

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Speaker 2: have much confidence about twenty twenty five if you read

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Speaker 2: through the investment analysts, and most of them think that

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Speaker 2: it'll be a positive year. But Donald Trump tariff's what's

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Speaker 2: all that mean for China, global trade, Australia, how they

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Speaker 2: interacted in that global trade? In tax wars. Donald Trump's

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Speaker 2: talking about this big cut in corporate tax rates that

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Speaker 2: could trigger other economies to do it. Very very difficult

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Speaker 2: to know exactly what's going to happen.

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Speaker 1: Sean one stock one story, really one corporate story that

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Speaker 1: was a standout in twenty twenty four and also in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty three. Because this keeps on going. There's been

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Speaker 1: the underperformance and the dismal performance of Star Entertainment and

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Speaker 1: that continues now into twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, on Friday it said it has seventy nine million

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Speaker 2: dollars in the bank. You might think that's a lot

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Speaker 2: of money. It's been one hundred and seven million in

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Speaker 2: the last three months. Gamblers are staying away, Turnovers not good,

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Speaker 2: expenses continue to grow, including fines for their different license breaches.

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Speaker 2: They're still facing an ods TRAK fine that could be

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Speaker 2: up to three hundred million dollars. That will wipe out

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Speaker 2: that seventy nine million really really quickly. The New South

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Speaker 2: Wales and Queensland government are refusing to bail out the company.

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Speaker 2: The Queensland Premier said that made that very clear. On Friday,

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Speaker 2: David chris A fully said he won't bail out Star,

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Speaker 2: but he might negotiate with any new owner if necessary.

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Speaker 2: That's not really a big site. There's not a sign

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Speaker 2: of confidence on the Premier of the state says we're

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Speaker 2: not going to go help them, but we will negotiate

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Speaker 2: with any new owner.

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Speaker 1: Oh god, it's just like okay, all right there, they're

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Speaker 1: just waiting for you to fail.

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Speaker 2: It is analyst. Now, I think there's about fifty to

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Speaker 2: fifty chance that Star won't make it if fall into administration.

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Speaker 2: Oh wow, now it could. There's still got options. It's

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Speaker 2: got a fifty percent stake in Queen's Wharf and Brizzy

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Speaker 2: that could be sold that with a lot of money.

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Speaker 2: On Friday's share price fell fifteen percent. It's now training

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Speaker 2: Michael at eleven cents a share over the break. I

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Speaker 2: didn't take much notice of share prices eleven share six

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Speaker 2: like six weeks ago, well, six months ago it was

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Speaker 2: about five times that level, but six weeks ago it

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Speaker 2: was double that level. Is the eleven cents a share amazing?

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Speaker 1: That's dismal. All right, we talked local markets. What's happening

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Speaker 1: on Wall Street?

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Speaker 2: Okay, So current expectations are for just one rate cut

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Speaker 2: in the US this year. About two months ago, we

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Speaker 2: thought there'd be four rate cuts. Before we went before Christmas,

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Speaker 2: it was two rate cuts. Now it's down to one.

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Speaker 2: Part of that is because the economy is doing pretty well.

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Speaker 2: Over the U weekend and strong employment figures came out.

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Speaker 2: It adds to the fewer rate cut arguments. Wall Street

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Speaker 2: fell sharply. It's around one and a half percent lower

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Speaker 2: over the weekend. That's where it is for the twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty five year to date. China sher market's kind of interesting.

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Speaker 2: Worst starts the new year since twenty sixteen, down five percent.

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Speaker 2: That is on the back of the Donald Trump ambiguity

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Speaker 2: one of the better word so plenty going on in

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Speaker 2: China particularly, but also on Wall Street and markets until

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump takes over and it's just it's a weekly

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Speaker 2: of way today. I think he actually, you know, he

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Speaker 2: says he's going to make changes immediately, and on that

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Speaker 2: day one he could come out and place tariffs and

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Speaker 2: all sorts of things on. So a lot of uncertainty

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Speaker 2: around the place, Sewan.

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Speaker 1: It's a good time to mention the interview that we

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Speaker 1: have today, that is with William lu who is from

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Speaker 1: Wham Global Wilson Asset Management Global, and he is talking

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Speaker 1: about six overseas stocks that you may not have considered.

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Speaker 2: Yes, now, a couple of those stocks. You know the

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Speaker 2: names of a couple of them I had no idea on.

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Speaker 2: And William is based in New York, knows plenty about

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Speaker 2: what do buy cell not just in US MARC, but

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Speaker 2: European markets as well. So if you're an investor interested

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Speaker 2: in investing, is well worth a lism Yeah?

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Speaker 1: Sure is he? Now you mentioned Donald Trump. His influence

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Speaker 1: Sean is cutting a sway through many companies, including Meta,

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Speaker 1: the owner of Facebook.

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Speaker 2: I think this is quite a remarkable story in that

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Speaker 2: it shows how corporate US is responding to Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: Mark Zuckerberg has announced a free speech overhaul Meta will

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Speaker 2: now can Facebook's fact checking program. Instead, the going to

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Speaker 2: rely on community to flag ins information. That's exactly what

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Speaker 2: X does, so we don't need fact checking. If it's wrong,

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Speaker 2: someone will tell us that type of thing. MET is

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Speaker 2: also going to weaken its hate speech policies. It's replaced

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Speaker 2: its global policy chief, Nick Kleig, with a prominent Republican

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Speaker 2: an ally of Donald Trump, a guy called Joel Kaplan.

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Speaker 2: It's a pointed Dana White to the board. Now Donald White,

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Speaker 2: CEO of the UFC, big time Trump confidante. Over the weekend,

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Speaker 2: it dumped its diversity, equity and inclusion efforts, and it

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Speaker 2: actually came out and said they're going to dump it.

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Speaker 2: Zuckerberg appeared on Joe Rogan's podcast. He said corporates had

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Speaker 2: become culturally muted, they needed more masculine energy, and we

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Speaker 2: need to celebrate aggression a bit more. Wow. I just

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Speaker 2: think I don't know what to say about that. I

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Speaker 2: think it speaks for itself.

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Speaker 1: Oh, that's that's quite extraordinary. One last one, Sean, because

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Speaker 1: this has been the big story that everyone's been focusing

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Speaker 1: on over the last few days, that the pictures have

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Speaker 1: been shocking. The four wildfires around Los Angeles continue to rage.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, they do it in a dozen people are still missing.

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Speaker 2: Sixteen people have been killed so far the largest fire

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Speaker 2: and the Palisades is spreading east now threatens the wealthy

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Speaker 2: neighborhood of Brentwood. Unfortunately, gusty winds are back their forecast

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Speaker 2: for the next few days as well. That's not going

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Speaker 2: to help anyone.

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Speaker 1: Goodness me, all right, Sean. That's the end of our

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Speaker 1: first full show for the year. Big year ahead, right,

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Speaker 1: very big year ahead, very exciting. And also a quick

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Speaker 1: mention of the summer series that we have had if

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Speaker 1: you have not had a listen, there is so much

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Speaker 1: there to go back through. And we talked about the

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Speaker 1: William Lou, the interview with William Lou that's being published today.

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Speaker 1: There are so many other ones along those lines, with

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Speaker 1: a whole bunch of investors and analysts, people who know

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Speaker 1: a whole bunch of different sectors here and overseas, looking

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Speaker 1: at a whole bunch of different companies. A lot of

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Speaker 1: good ideas for investors, just places to start your research

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Speaker 1: and just to factor maybe into your considerations.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely, all right.

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Speaker 1: Sean, thank you very much.

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Speaker 2: Thanks Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Monday, the thirteenth of January, twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us

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Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. Oh, Michael Thompson,

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Speaker 1: and that was fear and greed. Have a great day.