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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed. Global leaders, including Prime Minister

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Speaker 1: Anthony Alberzi, push for free trade around the globe at

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Speaker 1: the APEC summit, although the shadow of Donald Trump does loom.

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Speaker 1: Large big name fund managers pick their top stocks for

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty five, and Deadpool and Wolverine kickstarts Disney. Welcome

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Speaker 1: to Fear and Greed. Daily business news for people who

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Speaker 1: make their own decisions. It is Monday, the eighteenth of

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Speaker 1: November twenty twenty four. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning,

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Speaker 1: Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael, Sean the main.

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Speaker 1: Story this morning. Prime Minister Anthony Alberzi has used his

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Speaker 1: final speech at a meeting of APEC leaders to push

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Speaker 1: for climate change action and further cutting of emissions, and

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Speaker 1: he's also called for nations to embrace clean energy.

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Speaker 2: That's right, he said. Those tenants are central for Asia

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Speaker 2: Pacific countries to build new sources of inclusive growth and

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Speaker 2: lasting prosperity. Speaking in Lima, Peru ahead of flying to

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Speaker 2: Rio di Jinia for the g twenty summit, Misster Albanesi

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Speaker 2: said the global move to Netzeri represents the biggest economic

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Speaker 2: shift since the Industrial Revolution, and I quote him making

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Speaker 2: the move to more solar wind and green hydrogen is

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Speaker 2: essential for us to deal with the threat that climate

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Speaker 2: change poses to our environment, our farmers, our forests, our

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Speaker 2: oceans and rivers, and our future food security. It came

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Speaker 2: ahead of a final APEC leader's statement which failed to

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Speaker 2: elevate Russia's invasion of Ukraine and conflict in the Middle

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Speaker 2: East as an APEC priority. Russia and China had a

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Speaker 2: vote on that, so they not go one over, but

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Speaker 2: it did push the free trade agenda, with signatories including

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Speaker 2: mister Albernesi, US President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Shijing

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Speaker 2: Ping endorsing a rules based multilateral trading system in Lima.

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Speaker 2: There was a photo shoot of Joe Biden and Shijing

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Speaker 2: Ping shaking hands that it was a good look. I'll

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Speaker 2: tell you a bit more about that in a moment.

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Speaker 2: The G twenty summit, which starts tonight, is more likely

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Speaker 2: to deal with those sorts of con flicks all of

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Speaker 2: this APEC G twenty. In the background, there's Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: and the people he has appointed to, well he hopes

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Speaker 2: to appoint to. Some of the senior positions aren't necessarily

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Speaker 2: great fans of pushing the barrow when it comes to

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Speaker 2: climate change and improving the environment. However, Joe Biden, Jijingping,

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Speaker 2: Anthony Alberinezi and many others were certainly pushing hard on

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Speaker 2: that free trade climate change whole sort of sphere over

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Speaker 2: the weekend.

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Speaker 1: And even trade deals, free trade deals, anything along those lines.

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Speaker 1: There would be big question marks because of Donald Trump's

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Speaker 1: very clear statements about his views on these kinds of

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Speaker 1: deals and the promised introduction of additional tariffs and things.

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Speaker 1: So there would be a little bit of wariness around

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Speaker 1: kind of progressing too far on any deals involving the US,

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Speaker 1: because who knows if I'll actually make it through.

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Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, that's exactly right. And it's just interesting that

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Speaker 2: Cijinping was pushing free traders hard as he was Joe

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Speaker 2: Biden was pushing it. And we'll talk a little bit

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Speaker 2: more about it later in the show.

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Speaker 1: Okay, back home Sean. Australia has upgraded security ties with Japan,

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Speaker 1: announcing that the two countries and the US will hold

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Speaker 1: annual trilateral amphibious military training. Whenever I say amphibious military training. Again,

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Speaker 1: we have discussed this in the past. Do you not

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Speaker 1: just have an image of frogs with guns strapped to

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Speaker 1: their backs.

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Speaker 2: I'm always I know that's your image. My image is

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Speaker 2: more like crocs sort of crawling along shooting that sort

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Speaker 2: of stuff.

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Speaker 1: They would as I'm assuming I mean crocs as in

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Speaker 1: crocodiles as opposed to crocs the shoes.

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Speaker 2: Yes, yeah, you know what.

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Speaker 1: Crocs would actually make a more formidable weapon than frogs. Anyway,

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Speaker 1: Please go on and give us some credibility back.

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Speaker 2: The defense leaders of the three countries that met yesterday.

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Speaker 2: Lloyd Austin, who's the US Defense Secretary, said the three

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Speaker 2: countries are building advanced capabilities and discussing opportunities under the

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Speaker 2: Technology sharing AUCUST pillar two. Remember Aucus, there's about I

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Speaker 2: think there's four pillars to it, and it's not just

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Speaker 2: about submarines. It's about sharing technology those sorts of things

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Speaker 2: as well. Well. That's what Lloyd Austin was talking about yesterday.

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Speaker 2: Defense Minister Richard Miles said he expects American leadership to

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Speaker 2: continue under Donald Trump, particularly around issues such as the

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Speaker 2: Russia Ukraine War in the Indo Pacific. You'll sometimes wonder

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Speaker 2: when politicians come and say that at this point, whether

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Speaker 2: they're more hopeful than anything else. Mister Miles also said

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Speaker 2: that Australia will bid to host a climate change summit

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Speaker 2: actually COP thirty one, that's in coordination with Pacific Island Nations.

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Speaker 2: COP thirty one will be held in twenty twenty six

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Speaker 2: and we've just had COP twenty nine held every year

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Speaker 2: in Australia. Would like to host that one.

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Speaker 1: All right now, Away from politics, we're in peak auction

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Speaker 1: season across the nation, with last week being the second

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Speaker 1: busiest of twenty twenty four. The preliminary clearance rate came

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Speaker 1: in at sixty four point one percent, the third lowest

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Speaker 1: week of the year.

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Speaker 2: Yes, so the there were twenty nine hundred auctions. Melbourne

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Speaker 2: was busiest, followed by Sydney. Melbourne had about thirteen hundred auctions,

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Speaker 2: Sydney about eleven hundred. Melbourne's preliminary clearance rate came in

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Speaker 2: at sixty four point nine percent. That's about what Melbourne

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Speaker 2: has been doing. Sydney came in at sixty three point

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Speaker 2: four percent, actually the second lowest of the year. The

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Speaker 2: heat has well and truly come out of that city's market.

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Speaker 2: Brisbane was fifty six point three percent, Adelaide seventy point seven,

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Speaker 2: Act sixty six percent. They're all about what normally happens.

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Speaker 2: There are many fewer auctions in those markets. We're talking

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Speaker 2: kind of one or two hundred auctions in those markets

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Speaker 2: rather than the thousands in Sydney and Melbourne. Essentially more

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Speaker 2: supply in the market. It's pushing down prices and clearance rates.

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Speaker 2: The latest price figures suggest Sidney, Melbourne, Hobart, Canberra and

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Speaker 2: Darwin prices are now flat at best, some are actually

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Speaker 2: going backwards. Adelaide, Perth and Brisbane are still growing, but

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Speaker 2: the impact of the pay of growth really has slowed.

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Speaker 2: Last week, remember we had the National Australia Bank come

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Speaker 2: out and push back the timing of its forecast for

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Speaker 2: a rate cut to May. It was saying February thinks

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Speaker 2: it'll be May. Seems to be this growing view now

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Speaker 2: that the Reserve Bank might not cut in February, which

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Speaker 2: was consensus. Certainly the markets are priced in a rate

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Speaker 2: cut by September next year, but that doesn't mean they're

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Speaker 2: saying it will happen in September. It's still the best

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Speaker 2: bet among market economists is February, but increasingly pushing it

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Speaker 2: back to about May.

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Speaker 1: Okay, we're practicing saying preliminary over the weekend because you

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Speaker 1: nailed it every time.

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Speaker 2: Just I know, I focused really hard on the word.

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Speaker 2: I'm not going to say it again because I got

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Speaker 2: it right I think twice, So I'm just leaving it

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Speaker 2: at that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you did. I'm really proud of you. Immediately after

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Speaker 1: the show, Sean, You've got a great chat coming up

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Speaker 1: with Jason Island and Sean Wiles from m grand Nickel Advisory.

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Speaker 1: They are the co authors of the twelfth annual Working

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Speaker 1: Capital Report, and we talked to them. Ever, you have

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Speaker 1: done this for three or four years now, we've talked

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Speaker 1: to them about this.

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Speaker 2: We shall have. What I love about this report and

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Speaker 2: talking to Jason and Sean is it really gives you

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Speaker 2: a great insight into how businesses are operating. So you

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Speaker 2: kind of get all the macro pictures and all the

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Speaker 2: abs stuff, this Working Capital Report actually tells you what's

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Speaker 2: happening on the ground. Working capital is critical to any business.

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Speaker 2: We go through the trends in the different sectors. What's

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Speaker 2: happening among some businesses, what's happening in others. It's just

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Speaker 2: a fascinating insight into how the economy is performing. And

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Speaker 2: there's both good news and bad news. I suppose is

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Speaker 2: how I put it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's fair. It's a great conversation. It's

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Speaker 1: coming up after the show. Before that, though, we've got

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Speaker 1: a lot to get through. We'll be back in a

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Speaker 1: moment with the rest of the day's business news.

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Speaker 2: Sean.

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Speaker 1: Late last week, a bunch of fund managers gathered in

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Speaker 1: South Australia and pitched some of their best stock picks

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Speaker 1: at Son's Heart and Minds Festival Conference. It's a conference,

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Speaker 1: isn't it.

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Speaker 2: I think it's kind of like Glastonbury for fundis.

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Speaker 1: Maybe that's why I'm thinking of it as a festival,

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Speaker 1: because it feels like it's got.

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Speaker 2: That and over the weekend the business media at least

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Speaker 2: for running pictures of the different people there and their

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Speaker 2: partners with them and Glasson I mean, probably is Glastonbury

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Speaker 2: a bunch of performers giving their best. Hopefully not the drugs.

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Speaker 2: I'm sure they're not quite the Glassenbery drugs.

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Speaker 1: But are you suggesting that there would be drugs at

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Speaker 1: a finance conference.

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Speaker 2: I'm suggesting there wouldn't be drugs at a finance conference.

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Speaker 2: It is Glastonbury for fundies, just without the drugs. Sure,

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Speaker 2: the who's who of investment banking is there and I

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Speaker 2: wasn't there. The fin review was, and so they came

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Speaker 2: up with a bunch of the top stock picks. Now

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Speaker 2: we're not an investment podcast. We don't agree or disagree

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Speaker 2: with these. If you are going to invest, make sure

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Speaker 2: that you do your homework first. IFM investors, Ricky Bannon

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Speaker 2: she reckons corporate travel management is the way to go.

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Speaker 2: It's down thirty percent this year corporate travel management. So

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Speaker 2: it's a bit of a contrarian view that one her

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Speaker 2: argument is the travel sector is now stabilizing. Corporate travel

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Speaker 2: management is a good one. Another one there was Elston

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Speaker 2: Capital's Chris Cortis. He picked Perpetual. What he said was

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Speaker 2: it's suffering a severe case of wealth destruction. Now it's

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Speaker 2: down about well, I think I do two percent in

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty four. So again a contrarian view. J O

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Speaker 2: Hambrose Samir Meta went beyond Australium ten Cent Music, which

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Speaker 2: is the Chinese streaming service, massive group. I'd imagine if

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Speaker 2: the Chinese consumer starts spending again, that's what he's backing.

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Speaker 2: It's up about twenty four percent this year already. But

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Speaker 2: that's one from overseas one from Europe. So North Cape

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Speaker 2: Capital's flur White, she came up with estay Louder. Now

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Speaker 2: is it louder or louder?

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Speaker 1: Well, I think I think it's louder the based on

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Speaker 1: the ads because I'm just I'm a sucker for advertising,

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Speaker 1: and I just remember the stay Lorder, those.

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Speaker 2: Ads, those ads, So estay Lord is a real In fact,

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Speaker 2: I might even do something on estay Lorder this week

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Speaker 2: because this its share price is down fifty five percent

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Speaker 2: this year. It's been hammered out of China, and basically

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Speaker 2: there's a lot of Chinese luxury brands who are doing

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Speaker 2: really well in China, and the Chinese consumer no longer thinks, oh,

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Speaker 2: I need to buy an lvmh orn Lorder or something

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Speaker 2: like that. They're actually happy to buy their own loads

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Speaker 2: of domestic products. That's really hit esday Lorder. That's Lord.

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Speaker 2: Cape Capital's pick. Another interesting one. Antipody's partner for Hari

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Speaker 2: Ross picked Airbus. Airbus the manufacturer.

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Speaker 1: That's more for you, Michael, feels like you really did

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Speaker 1: just give that to me as a concession, knowing my

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Speaker 1: love of aircraft. Now right, the local share market, Sean

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Speaker 1: did well on Friday, rising three quarters of one percent,

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Speaker 1: But it might be in for a tougher day to

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Speaker 1: day after some fairly big falls on Wall Street.

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Speaker 2: I think you're right, Michael. On Friday, the banks led

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Speaker 2: the way, and by the close the market finished at

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Speaker 2: eight two hundred and eighty five points flat for the week.

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Speaker 2: It could to be a tough day to day, though

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Speaker 2: US stocks were much lower over the weekend. Now we

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Speaker 2: reported this on Friday afternoon. Federal Reserve chaired your own

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Speaker 2: Powell said there was no hurry to cut interest rates

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Speaker 2: in the world's biggest economy. People thought that it was

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Speaker 2: late auma's air that the Federal Reserve would cut rates

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Speaker 2: next month. Doesn't seem to be the case. That helps

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Speaker 2: send the tech heavy nastack down more than two percent.

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Speaker 2: The broad based SMP five hundred was down one point

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Speaker 2: three percent. That will probably hurt our market when we

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Speaker 2: opened today. The post election rallying in the US is

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Speaker 2: now retraced about sixty percent of the gains that it

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Speaker 2: made when Donald Trump was elected. That's on the back

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Speaker 2: of fears of higher inflation. So share took off and

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Speaker 2: they've come back sixty percent, basically because people are worried

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Speaker 2: that interest rates are going to be higher for longer.

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Speaker 2: Just a little in aside, really, so Maderna and Fires

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Speaker 2: are big vaccine makers. Their share price fell sharply on

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Speaker 2: Friday night, Australian time after Donald Trump said that he

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Speaker 2: wants Robert F. Kennedy Junior to head the US Department

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Speaker 2: of Health. Very very controversial appointment he still has to

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Speaker 2: get through Congress. Kennedy, of course, is the person who

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Speaker 2: called vaccines a crime against humanity cheapers.

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Speaker 1: Isn't that one of those fascinating examples of politics really

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Speaker 1: hitting the corporate world?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, I Fires from Moderna. We don't think Maderna.

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Speaker 2: I think it was down seven percent or something, other

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Speaker 2: fires of four or five percent. Oil rains remains relatively low,

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Speaker 2: around at seventy one US dolls a barrel, Gold's flat

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Speaker 2: iron als back blow one hundred US dollars a ton.

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Speaker 2: Things again sort of southward, as I suppose, But but, but,

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Speaker 2: but but but such problems for cryptos. Bitcoins rallying, pushing

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Speaker 2: through ninety one thousand dollars a unit. Doge Coin in

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Speaker 2: the last ten days or so has more than doubled

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Speaker 2: in value. Oh wow, At least he's the Elon Musk

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Speaker 2: pushed Crypto the Aussie dollars at sixty four and a

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Speaker 2: half US. Since plenty going on in markets, we can.

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Speaker 1: Just finish the show right there. You have crammed so

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Speaker 1: much into that one rap, from kind of US markets

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Speaker 1: to the federal Reserve, to US politics and oil and

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Speaker 1: gold and local markets and stuff.

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Speaker 2: It is.

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Speaker 1: That's a you could actually just take a break and

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Speaker 1: I'll do the rest of the show.

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Speaker 2: If you're like, ah, so much more exciting stuff to come,

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Speaker 2: they Michel.

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Speaker 1: There certainly is like this one. Health insurers SEAN have

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Speaker 1: asked the federal government to allow annual premium risers of

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Speaker 1: as much as six percent, saying otherwise some funds will

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Speaker 1: collapse or act's top hospital.

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Speaker 2: Cover Private Healthcare Australia is a body that represents Medibank

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Speaker 2: booper in an ib It has forecast much greater friction

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Speaker 2: between insurers and hospitals and suppliers. Insurers are lodging submissions

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Speaker 2: with the government ahead of annual increases, which kick in

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Speaker 2: from April next year. Now the Health Minister Mark Butler

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Speaker 2: has a final saying all this, He's already indicated he

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Speaker 2: won't agree to six percent. Last year was three percent.

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Speaker 2: But he has a fight on his hands and.

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Speaker 1: One of your favorite Seawan Wagu beef is falling from

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Speaker 1: favor as the cost favor great point. Oh, that has

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Speaker 1: a missed opportunity, wasn't it? Because the cost of living

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Speaker 1: crisis is hitting the beef sector.

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Speaker 2: So Queensland based Agribusiness Australian Agricultural Company but are known

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Speaker 2: as AACO, is one of the biggest beef producers in

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Speaker 2: the country. It reported a more than thirty percent drop

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Speaker 2: in profit for the six months to the end of September,

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Speaker 2: even though revenue was higher. There's great pressure on global

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Speaker 2: meat prices at the moment. WAGU prices around seventeen percent

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Speaker 2: year on year to seventeen dollars forty six a kilo.

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Speaker 2: Has been able to sell more beef, so that's kind

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Speaker 2: of helped it, but it's really being hit by lower

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Speaker 2: demand due to the cost of living pressures, past higher

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Speaker 2: input costs, fuel, packaging, that kind of stuff. Now why

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Speaker 2: I like this story, Well, it's an interesting story. But

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Speaker 2: we did this last week and AAC is another one

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Speaker 2: of those really fascinating Australian companies. It's almost well, I

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Speaker 2: think it is two hundred years old this year. So

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Speaker 2: it started in eighteen twenty four. It began as an

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Speaker 2: exporter of wool to the United Kingdom. Now huge portfolio

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Speaker 2: station six point five million hectares about one percent of

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Speaker 2: Australia's land mass. Wow, it's also a majority. I own

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Speaker 2: is a guy called Joe Lewis. He's a British billionaire.

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Speaker 2: You may remember him from last year he ended up

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Speaker 2: pleading guilty to inside a trading in the US.

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Speaker 1: He was the guy who gave the tips to a

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Speaker 1: whole bunch of people with this kind within his circle,

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Speaker 1: including people who work like its driver these driver.

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Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Oh that's a great story. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: it is the core story. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Anyway, Mexican food chain Goozmani Gomez so I had. I

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Speaker 1: was on a bit of a drive last week up

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Speaker 1: up the Pacific Highway from Sydney up to Queensland, and

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Speaker 1: I was struck by how many gyg outlets there were.

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Speaker 2: Like it.

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Speaker 1: It is really really becoming something that you don't have

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Speaker 1: to wait long and all of a sudden there's another one.

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Speaker 1: So if you miss out on your Mexican hit, so

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Speaker 1: you can find another one pretty quickly.

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Speaker 2: Two hundred and five outlets.

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Speaker 1: Now, I mean they're really pushing heavily into drive through

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Speaker 1: outlets that that can actually be run twenty four hours

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Speaker 1: a day, just in case you need a bur retoi

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Speaker 1: at four am.

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Speaker 2: That's exactly right. I mean, they've got one hundred and

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Speaker 2: five Australia outlets, about half of those are drive through.

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Speaker 2: Eighty five percent of potential expansion sites are now going

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Speaker 2: to be all they're looking at hope to be drive throughs.

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Speaker 2: JW Lane. Drive throughs apparently capture a full range of customers.

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Speaker 2: The early morning tradees. This is how Goosman puts them,

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Speaker 2: early morning tradees, families, commuters, late night munchies. It's a

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Speaker 2: four am burrito. It floated, floated, been a big flight.

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Speaker 2: It was of the biggest float this year. Now that's

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Speaker 2: not saying much because there hasn't been many floats floated

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Speaker 2: at twenty two bucks now about thirty seven dollars a share,

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Speaker 2: done pretty well.

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Speaker 1: Late night munchies, m M. That is that's a great

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Speaker 1: choice of words. That is in international news now Sean

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Speaker 1: who alluded to this one a number of times. Chinese

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Speaker 1: leader Jijinping has told US President Joe Biden that is

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Speaker 1: ready to work with Donald Trump to improve the relationship

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Speaker 1: between the world's biggest economies. That's got to be good news.

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Speaker 2: Right, you hope so that he was talking to Joe Biden,

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Speaker 2: not Donald Trump, speaking at the start of what's expected

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Speaker 2: to be their final meeting before Trump takes office. She

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Speaker 2: told Biden that the US and China should strive for

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Speaker 2: peaceful coexistence over the longer term. According to report on Bloomberg,

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Speaker 2: he said solidarity and cooperation and needed to help humanity

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Speaker 2: overcome difficulties, adding that neither the decoupling nor supply chain

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Speaker 2: disruption is a solution. And I quote he said, China

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Speaker 2: is ready to work with the newer US administration to

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Speaker 2: maintain communication, expands cooperation, and manage differences so as to

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Speaker 2: thrive for a steady transition of the China US relationship

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Speaker 2: for the benefit of the two people. Quote Joe Biden,

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Speaker 2: for his part, he said he was very proud of

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Speaker 2: the progress between the two sides. I think for the

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Speaker 2: global economy, the number one unknown is just how the

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Speaker 2: Trump administration will work with China.

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Speaker 1: Finally, Sean I mentioned this story at the top of

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Speaker 1: the show. Disney is showing some signs of bouncing back

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Speaker 1: from a very tough period thanks to growing streaming profits

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Speaker 1: and the performance of Deadpool and Wolverine.

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Speaker 2: I don't get Deadpool and Wolverine.

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Speaker 1: Have you seen the other Deadpool movies.

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Speaker 2: I haven't seen any of them.

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Speaker 1: Well, you're not going to get it, then just go on,

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Speaker 1: Just give us the business, save the movie reviews for me,

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Speaker 1: top culture guy, and you stick to the business.

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Speaker 2: So earning through up thirty nine percent joining the September quarter.

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Speaker 2: Share price jumped six percent after the release of the results.

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Speaker 2: The two big winners dead Pool and Wolverine. There are

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Speaker 2: other One was Inside Out Too, which is a kids movie,

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Speaker 2: isn't it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a good one. It's quite good. Yeah it's

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Speaker 1: a family movie.

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Speaker 2: I would say, right right, Okay. So Disney plus, ESPN

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Speaker 2: Plus and Hulu, the streaming services bringing the money, they're

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Speaker 2: doing pretty well. The upcoming holiday season is particularly important

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Speaker 2: for Disney. Couple for you, Michael with your young children,

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Speaker 2: Mawana Two's out, The Fast of the Lion King's out.

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Speaker 2: That's what Disney's pinning its hopes on. For a while,

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Speaker 2: the big negative at Disney has been the experiences division,

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Speaker 2: those primarily theme parks, and cruises, but they are doubling

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Speaker 2: down on at US theme. Parks are starting to pick up,

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Speaker 2: not doing so well in Paris and Shanghai, but they're

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Speaker 2: launching two new cruise ships next year, so they certainly

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Speaker 2: think that's the future.

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Speaker 1: Okay. Up next is the Fear and Greed Daily Interview.

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Speaker 1: We're speaking today with Jason Ireland and Sean Wiles from

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Speaker 1: mcgrah nicol Advisory, all about working capital, the importance of

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Speaker 1: working capital and the current kind of situation for businesses

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Speaker 1: on the ground. And before that you'll also hear Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed The Weak Ahead featuring our resident economist Stephen Coucoulis.

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Speaker 1: So there's plenty of good listening coming up. Thank you

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Speaker 1: very much, Sean, thank you very much.

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Speaker 2: Michael.

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Speaker 1: It's Monday, the eighteenth of November twenty twenty four. Make

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Speaker 1: sure you're following the podcast and please join us online

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Speaker 1: on LinkedIn, Instagram, ex TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson

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Speaker 1: and that was Fear and Greed.

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Speaker 2: Have a great day.