1 00:00:03,450 --> 00:00:05,850 Sean Aylmer: Welcome to the Fear And Greed Daily Interview, I'm Sean 2 00:00:05,850 --> 00:00:09,340 Sean Aylmer: Aylmer. Well, what a day it was for the economy 3 00:00:09,340 --> 00:00:13,240 Sean Aylmer: yesterday, highlighted by those jobs figures. The unemployment rate dropped 4 00:00:13,310 --> 00:00:17,810 Sean Aylmer: in November from 5. 2% to just 4. 6% as 5 00:00:17,810 --> 00:00:22,170 Sean Aylmer: the economy created more than 335, 000 jobs. It well and 6 00:00:22,170 --> 00:00:26,419 Sean Aylmer: truly exceeded the expectations of most, if not all economists. 7 00:00:26,800 --> 00:00:29,500 Sean Aylmer: Then we had MYEFO, and we also had the reserve 8 00:00:29,500 --> 00:00:33,180 Sean Aylmer: bank governor Philip Lowe speaking. Carlos Cacho is joining me 9 00:00:33,180 --> 00:00:36,100 Sean Aylmer: this morning, he's the Chief Economist at Jarden Group, and 10 00:00:36,100 --> 00:00:39,400 Sean Aylmer: Carlos, I'm hoping you'll be able to help me make 11 00:00:39,400 --> 00:00:40,409 Sean Aylmer: a little sense of it all. 12 00:00:40,729 --> 00:00:43,349 Carlos Cacho: Thanks for having me Sean. Hopefully I'll... I'm still trying 13 00:00:43,350 --> 00:00:44,990 Carlos Cacho: to make sense of some of it myself. 14 00:00:45,409 --> 00:00:47,940 Sean Aylmer: Crazy, so let's start with those labor force figures. What 15 00:00:47,940 --> 00:00:48,590 Sean Aylmer: did you make of them? 16 00:00:49,290 --> 00:00:54,410 Carlos Cacho: Look, a phenomenal labor force report. We basically unwound all 17 00:00:54,410 --> 00:00:57,910 Carlos Cacho: of the damage, for lack of better term, that the 18 00:00:57,910 --> 00:01:01,780 Carlos Cacho: labor market took over the Delta lockdowns in a single 19 00:01:01,780 --> 00:01:06,360 Carlos Cacho: month. We were expecting a strong outcome given the interesting 20 00:01:06,360 --> 00:01:09,179 Carlos Cacho: information the ABS published the prior month of that job 21 00:01:09,180 --> 00:01:12,780 Carlos Cacho: attachment, which basically told us that even though we'd lost 22 00:01:12,790 --> 00:01:15,709 Carlos Cacho: a lot of jobs, most of those people still had 23 00:01:15,709 --> 00:01:18,520 Carlos Cacho: an attachment to their employer. So essentially, they thought they 24 00:01:18,520 --> 00:01:22,180 Carlos Cacho: were still employed, it's just so they hadn't been meeting 25 00:01:22,180 --> 00:01:24,450 Carlos Cacho: the activity tests. They weren't (inaudible) employed in the ABS data. 26 00:01:25,010 --> 00:01:28,209 Carlos Cacho: So we were expecting that it was going to be a very strong print, but 27 00:01:28,209 --> 00:01:30,149 Carlos Cacho: I didn't quite expect that we'd see all the jobs 28 00:01:30,150 --> 00:01:32,920 Carlos Cacho: recouped in a single month. So, really a great result, 29 00:01:32,920 --> 00:01:35,980 Carlos Cacho: unemployment rate back down to where it was before we 30 00:01:35,980 --> 00:01:38,240 Carlos Cacho: went into lockdowns. And more importantly, the (inaudible) rate 31 00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:41,860 Carlos Cacho: down to a new record low, the lowest it's been 32 00:01:41,860 --> 00:01:42,930 Carlos Cacho: in over 10 years. 33 00:01:43,220 --> 00:01:46,510 Sean Aylmer: Wow. And then hours worked was good, participation rate was 34 00:01:46,510 --> 00:01:47,209 Sean Aylmer: back up again? 35 00:01:47,710 --> 00:01:51,500 Carlos Cacho: Yeah. Hours worked basically recouping almost all of the losses 36 00:01:51,500 --> 00:01:54,980 Carlos Cacho: we saw through the lockdowns. Participation back to just shy 37 00:01:54,980 --> 00:01:58,270 Carlos Cacho: where it was. Employment to population ratio back to record 38 00:01:58,270 --> 00:02:00,750 Carlos Cacho: highs. So, look, any way you cut it, it was 39 00:02:00,750 --> 00:02:03,530 Carlos Cacho: a very strong jobs report. Part of it was because 40 00:02:03,530 --> 00:02:06,780 Carlos Cacho: the October report was kind of bad timing when it 41 00:02:06,780 --> 00:02:07,460 Carlos Cacho: was taken. 42 00:02:07,460 --> 00:02:07,669 Sean Aylmer: Yeah. 43 00:02:08,330 --> 00:02:10,369 Carlos Cacho: We hadn't seen much of a recovery yet, but look, 44 00:02:10,720 --> 00:02:13,960 Carlos Cacho: it's confirming that the economy is recovering very strongly coming 45 00:02:13,960 --> 00:02:15,930 Carlos Cacho: out of lockdowns. And if we look at the leading 46 00:02:15,930 --> 00:02:19,730 Carlos Cacho: indicators, things like job ads or more employment intentions, it 47 00:02:19,730 --> 00:02:21,900 Carlos Cacho: looks like the labor market's going to remain very hot. 48 00:02:22,169 --> 00:02:25,950 Sean Aylmer: It's interesting, in the U.S., they talk a lot about the Great Resignation, 49 00:02:25,950 --> 00:02:28,859 Sean Aylmer: all these people changing jobs, but you were alluding to 50 00:02:28,860 --> 00:02:31,370 Sean Aylmer: the idea that in Australia that just didn't happen because 51 00:02:31,370 --> 00:02:35,639 Sean Aylmer: people remained attached to their place of employment, even if 52 00:02:35,639 --> 00:02:36,710 Sean Aylmer: they weren't actually doing work. 53 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:39,620 Carlos Cacho: Yeah. That's a really big difference to what we're seeing 54 00:02:39,620 --> 00:02:41,450 Carlos Cacho: in the U. S. Where they are actually seeing pretty 55 00:02:41,450 --> 00:02:44,669 Carlos Cacho: material wage growth in Australia. I think, you can credit 56 00:02:44,669 --> 00:02:47,820 Carlos Cacho: early on in the pandemic Job Keeper, was a very 57 00:02:47,950 --> 00:02:52,089 Carlos Cacho: good program that helped keep that attachment for employees. And 58 00:02:52,130 --> 00:02:56,040 Carlos Cacho: then through this latest period of lockdowns, the stimulus we had helped 59 00:02:56,040 --> 00:02:59,340 Carlos Cacho: maintain that, again, where employers weren't let go, they just weren't paid. And 60 00:02:59,370 --> 00:03:01,510 Carlos Cacho: they got paid by the government instead. In the U. 61 00:03:01,510 --> 00:03:04,660 Carlos Cacho: S. You've seen a lot more separation. You're seeing much 62 00:03:04,660 --> 00:03:08,130 Carlos Cacho: higher rates of labor turnover, the highest on record. And 63 00:03:08,130 --> 00:03:11,510 Carlos Cacho: you're also seeing the participation rates still being around, I 64 00:03:11,510 --> 00:03:13,630 Carlos Cacho: think one and a half percent below where it was pre- 65 00:03:13,630 --> 00:03:15,860 Carlos Cacho: COVID where in Australia, we're making new highs in the 66 00:03:15,860 --> 00:03:19,790 Carlos Cacho: participation rate. So we're not having the same contraction in 67 00:03:19,790 --> 00:03:22,250 Carlos Cacho: the supply of labor that the U. S. Is experiencing. 68 00:03:22,750 --> 00:03:25,710 Sean Aylmer: Okay. So let's move on to the federal budget. And 69 00:03:25,710 --> 00:03:29,079 Sean Aylmer: yesterday we got the half year update, the MYEFO update. 70 00:03:29,690 --> 00:03:32,110 Sean Aylmer: They're forecasting a million new jobs in the next four 71 00:03:32,160 --> 00:03:36,530 Sean Aylmer: years. That's probably not that courageous a forecast given, you 72 00:03:36,530 --> 00:03:38,810 Sean Aylmer: know what we're seeing at the moment. Bottom line, we're 73 00:03:38,810 --> 00:03:40,650 Sean Aylmer: still all got deficits in the next two or three 74 00:03:40,650 --> 00:03:42,420 Sean Aylmer: years, and then they get larger in the out years, I 75 00:03:42,420 --> 00:03:46,040 Sean Aylmer: think. What did you make overall of the budget finances yesterday? 76 00:03:46,420 --> 00:03:49,100 Carlos Cacho: I think on the whole, it was... there was a 77 00:03:49,100 --> 00:03:51,530 Carlos Cacho: lot of moving parts, a lot of changes with economic 78 00:03:51,530 --> 00:03:55,150 Carlos Cacho: assumptions. A lot of changes obviously versus the budget given 79 00:03:55,150 --> 00:03:57,910 Carlos Cacho: we've had a lockdown and a lot more federal stimulus. 80 00:03:58,240 --> 00:04:00,770 Carlos Cacho: Some changes as well with the N.D. I. S. costing a 81 00:04:00,770 --> 00:04:03,130 Carlos Cacho: lot more than the government that was expecting, about 26 82 00:04:03,130 --> 00:04:04,840 Carlos Cacho: billion more added in for that. You know, I think 83 00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:07,730 Carlos Cacho: the million new jobs claim, like you say, it's not 84 00:04:07,730 --> 00:04:10,860 Carlos Cacho: particularly courageous. If they take their bases, October, they're already 85 00:04:10,860 --> 00:04:13,830 Carlos Cacho: a third of the way there with today's numbers, so 86 00:04:13,830 --> 00:04:16,380 Carlos Cacho: that makes the job a bit easier. On the whole, looking 87 00:04:16,380 --> 00:04:19,479 Carlos Cacho: at the economic forecast, they're relatively conservative. They still have 88 00:04:19,480 --> 00:04:22,520 Carlos Cacho: the unemployed rate only getting down to about four and a 89 00:04:22,520 --> 00:04:25,520 Carlos Cacho: quarter percent by 2023. I think we're probably going to 90 00:04:25,520 --> 00:04:28,279 Carlos Cacho: be at 4% by the end of next year. So 91 00:04:28,279 --> 00:04:30,550 Carlos Cacho: we're probably surprise them in the upside there. For me, 92 00:04:30,650 --> 00:04:33,359 Carlos Cacho: the most interesting thing was the 16 billion dollars they're 93 00:04:33,360 --> 00:04:37,460 Carlos Cacho: scrolling away in a line item called " Decisions Taken," but 94 00:04:37,460 --> 00:04:38,760 Carlos Cacho: not yet announced, which is usually... 95 00:04:39,010 --> 00:04:41,170 Sean Aylmer: Ah, I love that line item. 96 00:04:41,820 --> 00:04:44,279 Carlos Cacho: It's usually where you put the pre- election spending that 97 00:04:44,279 --> 00:04:47,490 Carlos Cacho: you haven't announced yet. Now that didn't bite when journalists 98 00:04:47,490 --> 00:04:49,990 Carlos Cacho: were suggesting that, but I suspect we may be seeing 99 00:04:49,990 --> 00:04:52,560 Carlos Cacho: a bit of spending being announced between now and the 100 00:04:52,560 --> 00:04:56,029 Carlos Cacho: election, which seems to be likely in May. And I'm 101 00:04:56,029 --> 00:04:58,630 Carlos Cacho: hearing whispers that we could see another extension of the 102 00:04:58,630 --> 00:05:02,070 Carlos Cacho: temporary low and middle income tax offset, which is, if 103 00:05:02,070 --> 00:05:05,980 Carlos Cacho: anyone is counting at home, I think that's the third extension of what was originally 104 00:05:05,980 --> 00:05:07,979 Carlos Cacho: meant to be only a one or two year policy that... 105 00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:08,350 Sean Aylmer: Wow. 106 00:05:08,350 --> 00:05:10,669 Carlos Cacho: you know, might be one of these temporary policies that sticks 107 00:05:10,670 --> 00:05:12,130 Carlos Cacho: around for a lot longer than expected. 108 00:05:12,589 --> 00:05:14,470 Sean Aylmer: Stay with me, Carlos, we'll be back in a minute. 109 00:05:19,400 --> 00:05:22,450 Sean Aylmer: My guest this morning is Jarden chief economist Carlos Cacho. 110 00:05:23,180 --> 00:05:25,620 Sean Aylmer: The reserve bank, governor Philip Lowe was talking yesterday in 111 00:05:25,620 --> 00:05:30,230 Sean Aylmer: his hometown of Wagga Wagga. He certainly sounded as if 112 00:05:30,230 --> 00:05:33,279 Sean Aylmer: the bank is thinking about tapering its bond purchasing program, 113 00:05:33,279 --> 00:05:35,880 Sean Aylmer: and potentially ending it in May. That's one scenario he 114 00:05:35,880 --> 00:05:38,270 Sean Aylmer: put forward, but it seemed to be his central case 115 00:05:38,270 --> 00:05:43,029 Sean Aylmer: scenario. And he didn't talk about 2024 being conditions for 116 00:05:43,029 --> 00:05:45,620 Sean Aylmer: the next interest rate hike. He actually mentioned 2023, what 117 00:05:45,690 --> 00:05:46,720 Sean Aylmer: did you make of his speech? 118 00:05:47,230 --> 00:05:48,710 Carlos Cacho: You know, he gave us a bit more color on 119 00:05:48,710 --> 00:05:53,740 Carlos Cacho: the bottom frame, which was good. He maintained a careful balance between 120 00:05:54,089 --> 00:05:58,360 Carlos Cacho: optimism at the economic outlook, but remaining relatively dovish in 121 00:05:58,360 --> 00:06:01,039 Carlos Cacho: regards to monetary policy and trying to push back as 122 00:06:01,040 --> 00:06:03,100 Carlos Cacho: much as he can on market pricing, which is still 123 00:06:03,490 --> 00:06:06,789 Carlos Cacho: quite aggressive. The financial markets are expecting three rate hikes 124 00:06:06,790 --> 00:06:09,160 Carlos Cacho: by the end of 2022, which is clearly not what 125 00:06:09,160 --> 00:06:11,890 Carlos Cacho: the governor thinks on Q. E. Look, yeah, like you 126 00:06:11,890 --> 00:06:14,470 Carlos Cacho: said, he laid out three options and said that their 127 00:06:14,470 --> 00:06:18,190 Carlos Cacho: current central forecast scenario is consistent with them tapering in 128 00:06:18,220 --> 00:06:21,860 Carlos Cacho: February and ending the Q. E. Program by May. Given 129 00:06:21,860 --> 00:06:26,250 Carlos Cacho: the economic recovery post- lockdowns has arguably been better so 130 00:06:26,250 --> 00:06:29,620 Carlos Cacho: far, particularly with today's jobs numbers than anyone, including the R. B. 131 00:06:29,770 --> 00:06:32,289 Carlos Cacho: A. expected. You know, you might think we're probably moving 132 00:06:32,290 --> 00:06:35,299 Carlos Cacho: towards the upside scenario, which he didn't say was consistent 133 00:06:35,300 --> 00:06:37,510 Carlos Cacho: with it ending in February, but suggested that if the 134 00:06:37,720 --> 00:06:40,200 Carlos Cacho: data surprised to the upside that's a possibility. So there's 135 00:06:40,200 --> 00:06:42,590 Carlos Cacho: definitely a risk that we see the bond purchase program 136 00:06:42,640 --> 00:06:45,580 Carlos Cacho: end sooner than expected. And then in terms of the 137 00:06:45,580 --> 00:06:49,010 Carlos Cacho: rate hikes, I think Lowe's made very clear that it's 138 00:06:49,010 --> 00:06:51,359 Carlos Cacho: really wages that he wants to see. He's more or 139 00:06:51,360 --> 00:06:54,350 Carlos Cacho: less ticked the box on inflation now. We've got trimmed 140 00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:56,760 Carlos Cacho: domain inflation, that preferred measure, back in the target for 141 00:06:56,760 --> 00:06:59,360 Carlos Cacho: the first time in about at six years, but wages 142 00:06:59,360 --> 00:07:02,680 Carlos Cacho: are still starting with the two for most workers, and 143 00:07:02,680 --> 00:07:04,300 Carlos Cacho: he really wants them to start with a three. And 144 00:07:04,540 --> 00:07:06,210 Carlos Cacho: I think that's going to take a little bit longer 145 00:07:06,210 --> 00:07:10,270 Carlos Cacho: to flow through just given the rigidities in the Australian wage 146 00:07:10,270 --> 00:07:13,710 Carlos Cacho: setting or kind of labor market, which means it takes a little 147 00:07:13,860 --> 00:07:15,680 Carlos Cacho: bit longer for high wages to flow through than it 148 00:07:15,720 --> 00:07:17,340 Carlos Cacho: might in some other economies like the U. S. 149 00:07:17,890 --> 00:07:19,880 Sean Aylmer: Okay, and this sort of brings us to the full 150 00:07:19,880 --> 00:07:22,690 Sean Aylmer: circle back to the jobs figures, certainly when you're putting 151 00:07:22,690 --> 00:07:25,560 Sean Aylmer: that many jobs on and an unemployment rate falling as 152 00:07:25,560 --> 00:07:28,130 Sean Aylmer: it is, it must put pressure on wages. And, notwithstanding, 153 00:07:28,130 --> 00:07:31,710 Sean Aylmer: I appreciate the rigidity of the wage system here and 154 00:07:31,710 --> 00:07:35,330 Sean Aylmer: particularly people under awards, but there must be greater pressure 155 00:07:35,330 --> 00:07:37,720 Sean Aylmer: on wages now than there has been for a long time. 156 00:07:38,120 --> 00:07:42,180 Carlos Cacho: Oh, look, definitely. When I have conversations with business owners 157 00:07:42,180 --> 00:07:45,880 Carlos Cacho: and, people on the actual ground of the economy with 158 00:07:45,880 --> 00:07:51,989 Carlos Cacho: recruiters, I'm hearing quite common wage increases of 5% in 159 00:07:51,990 --> 00:07:55,580 Carlos Cacho: some cases in hospitality where obviously there's a big shortage 160 00:07:55,580 --> 00:07:58,770 Carlos Cacho: of workers with the lack of backpackers and international students 161 00:07:59,140 --> 00:08:02,440 Carlos Cacho: in areas like construction. Regularly, I'm hearing about 10 to 162 00:08:02,450 --> 00:08:06,070 Carlos Cacho: 15% wage growth there in areas like professional services and 163 00:08:06,130 --> 00:08:10,110 Carlos Cacho: accounting. You're hearing about 20, 30, in some cases, 40% wage 164 00:08:10,350 --> 00:08:13,480 Carlos Cacho: rises for workers because the lack of supply of labor 165 00:08:13,480 --> 00:08:16,640 Carlos Cacho: coming in, as well as there's the fact there's so much 166 00:08:16,640 --> 00:08:19,260 Carlos Cacho: work to go around. I think though, that's kind of for 167 00:08:19,260 --> 00:08:22,040 Carlos Cacho: the marginal worker where we're yet to see that is 168 00:08:22,040 --> 00:08:24,670 Carlos Cacho: kind of flow through is into the broader workforce. And 169 00:08:24,670 --> 00:08:27,010 Carlos Cacho: to really see that happen, we probably need to see 170 00:08:27,300 --> 00:08:29,370 Carlos Cacho: labor market turnover pick up. So we need to see 171 00:08:29,370 --> 00:08:33,330 Carlos Cacho: more people switching jobs because right now, employers, they're not 172 00:08:33,330 --> 00:08:37,710 Carlos Cacho: paying the total workforce more, they're paying up for the 173 00:08:37,929 --> 00:08:41,720 Carlos Cacho: marginal worker that they're hiring and that's definitely happening in 174 00:08:41,720 --> 00:08:44,340 Carlos Cacho: quite a few areas across the economy. To really see 175 00:08:44,340 --> 00:08:46,780 Carlos Cacho: the broader wages growth figures pick up, you need to 176 00:08:46,780 --> 00:08:50,040 Carlos Cacho: start seeing that filter through to really... all the existing 177 00:08:50,040 --> 00:08:53,530 Carlos Cacho: legacy employees who might not be getting those same pay 178 00:08:53,530 --> 00:08:55,640 Carlos Cacho: bumps. And I think one of the really key things to watch 179 00:08:55,640 --> 00:08:57,870 Carlos Cacho: for that is going to be how we start seeing 180 00:08:57,870 --> 00:09:01,210 Carlos Cacho: things like enterprise bargaining agreement, wage increases come out because 181 00:09:01,210 --> 00:09:04,000 Carlos Cacho: they cover about 40% of workers. So a lot of 182 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:06,040 Carlos Cacho: workers are determined by that as well as the minimum 183 00:09:06,040 --> 00:09:08,900 Carlos Cacho: wage decision, which we'll get in July next year, which 184 00:09:09,200 --> 00:09:11,569 Carlos Cacho: is probably going to be high given where inflation's looking 185 00:09:11,570 --> 00:09:12,100 Carlos Cacho: at the moment. 186 00:09:12,400 --> 00:09:15,270 Sean Aylmer: Okay. So as we stand here at the end of 187 00:09:15,270 --> 00:09:18,300 Sean Aylmer: the year, do you think the federal government and state 188 00:09:18,309 --> 00:09:22,000 Sean Aylmer: governments and regulators, and particularly the reserve bank would be happy 189 00:09:22,260 --> 00:09:23,500 Sean Aylmer: with the Australian economy? 190 00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:25,969 Carlos Cacho: I think they would. I think if you looked at 191 00:09:25,970 --> 00:09:28,860 Carlos Cacho: what we were staring down in June last year, or 192 00:09:28,860 --> 00:09:32,730 Carlos Cacho: even in September this year, it was a pretty bad 193 00:09:32,730 --> 00:09:36,520 Carlos Cacho: outlook. You know, we were into a first recession in over 20 194 00:09:36,520 --> 00:09:40,429 Carlos Cacho: years. We'd had unemployment at the highest it's been for 195 00:09:40,429 --> 00:09:43,179 Carlos Cacho: a very, very long time, since the last recession. The 196 00:09:43,179 --> 00:09:45,910 Carlos Cacho: outlook was pretty challenging. And what we've seen is two 197 00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:49,500 Carlos Cacho: very rapid V- shape recoveries in the labor market, and 198 00:09:49,500 --> 00:09:52,540 Carlos Cacho: we've seen a very strong economic recovery in regards to 199 00:09:52,540 --> 00:09:56,630 Carlos Cacho: consumption and consumer spending, and the leading indicators we're seeing 200 00:09:56,630 --> 00:09:58,360 Carlos Cacho: that again right now. If you look at the high 201 00:09:58,360 --> 00:10:00,630 Carlos Cacho: frequency data for the banks, it looks like consumers are 202 00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:03,130 Carlos Cacho: well and truly opening their wallets and getting out again. 203 00:10:03,490 --> 00:10:05,760 Carlos Cacho: I think really the next step going into next year is 204 00:10:05,760 --> 00:10:09,450 Carlos Cacho: going to be seeing business investment pick up, hopefully seeing 205 00:10:09,450 --> 00:10:13,080 Carlos Cacho: some productivity improvements, and then seeing wages growth lift, which 206 00:10:13,540 --> 00:10:15,000 Carlos Cacho: is kind of the missing piece of the puzzle at 207 00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:16,929 Carlos Cacho: the moment. But I think overall they'd be pretty happy 208 00:10:16,929 --> 00:10:19,500 Carlos Cacho: with the way things are looking right now, considering where 209 00:10:19,500 --> 00:10:20,160 Carlos Cacho: we've come from. 210 00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:23,390 Sean Aylmer: And the biggest risk remains COVID and particularly Omicron. 211 00:10:23,860 --> 00:10:25,870 Carlos Cacho: Yeah, look, I think new variants are obviously a risk 212 00:10:25,870 --> 00:10:29,939 Carlos Cacho: at the moment, Omicron. Still very early days, but it 213 00:10:29,940 --> 00:10:33,380 Carlos Cacho: seems to be much more transmissible, but maybe more mild. 214 00:10:33,380 --> 00:10:36,939 Carlos Cacho: So hopefully it won't derail things, that is, COVID remains 215 00:10:36,940 --> 00:10:39,890 Carlos Cacho: a key risk and potential look that slow down in 216 00:10:39,890 --> 00:10:41,569 Carlos Cacho: China is another risk that we need to be aware 217 00:10:41,570 --> 00:10:44,030 Carlos Cacho: of in Australia. The indicators there that the economy is 218 00:10:44,030 --> 00:10:47,410 Carlos Cacho: slowing down and that real estate activity is slowing pretty 219 00:10:47,410 --> 00:10:50,610 Carlos Cacho: rapidly, which is obviously key for Australia's exports of iron 220 00:10:50,610 --> 00:10:53,530 Carlos Cacho: ore in particular. The government there is taking moves to 221 00:10:53,530 --> 00:10:56,830 Carlos Cacho: stimulate, but it remains to be seen how successful those 222 00:10:57,150 --> 00:10:59,200 Carlos Cacho: will be in the face of the broader de- leveraging 223 00:10:59,200 --> 00:10:59,910 Carlos Cacho: they're engineering. 224 00:11:00,510 --> 00:11:02,320 Sean Aylmer: Carlos, thank you for talking to Fear and Greed, not 225 00:11:02,320 --> 00:11:04,570 Sean Aylmer: just today, but of course, throughout the last year. 226 00:11:04,760 --> 00:11:05,720 Carlos Cacho: Thanks for having me Sean. 227 00:11:06,059 --> 00:11:08,460 Sean Aylmer: That was Carlos Cacho, Chief Economist at Jarden. This is 228 00:11:09,230 --> 00:11:11,990 Sean Aylmer: the Fear and Greed Daily Interview. Join me every morning 229 00:11:11,990 --> 00:11:13,929 Sean Aylmer: for the full Fear and Greed podcast with all the 230 00:11:13,929 --> 00:11:17,160 Sean Aylmer: business news you need to know. I'm Sean Aylmer, enjoy 231 00:11:17,160 --> 00:11:17,520 Sean Aylmer: your day.