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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.

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Speaker 1: Australia's beef industry expects an exemption from US tariffs, as

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Speaker 1: the rest of the world struggles to understand the winners

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Speaker 1: and losers from the latest fifteen percent in position, The

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Speaker 1: federal opposition pressures the government on Islamic state families, and

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Speaker 1: the Gold Coast is getting a Trump Tower. Plus, the

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Speaker 1: Fair Work Commission finds in favor of an employer who

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Speaker 1: sacked a worker for making the Nazi salute, and Australians

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Speaker 1: warned about traveling to Mexico. It is Tuesday, the twenty

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Speaker 1: fourth of February twenty twenty six. I'm Michael Thompson and

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Speaker 1: good morning, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Morning Michael. Oliver's twenty first birthday. Oliver's my second son.

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Speaker 2: Happy birthday all today.

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Speaker 1: Happy Birthday, Oli got a.

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Speaker 2: Big Normally you'll put this at the end of the show,

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Speaker 2: but let's face it, the kids are only going to

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Speaker 2: listen to the first two or three minutes and then

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Speaker 2: they'll find something better to do.

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Speaker 1: A very limited window for birthday rishis when the kids

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Speaker 1: are involved. Now that's fair enough. Happy BLI I'm sure

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Speaker 1: he'll be interested to hear this first story about the

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Speaker 1: beef industry.

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Speaker 2: Well, he's moving to the US on Thursdays.

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Speaker 1: There you go. Well this is for him. It is

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Speaker 1: the main story this morning, Sean. Australia's beef industry, which

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Speaker 1: is one of the biggest foreign suppliers to the US,

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Speaker 1: it's likely to keep its exemptions from the President Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump's latest tariff regime.

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Speaker 2: Yes, so beef shipped to the US won't face the

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Speaker 2: new fifteen percent tariffs announced by Trump on Saturday. That's

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Speaker 2: according to the Meat and Livestock Australia Managing Director Michael Crowley.

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Speaker 2: The industry body confirmed the exemption in a conversation with

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Speaker 2: their counterparts in the US now. In November, the US

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Speaker 2: Administration announced the beef imports into America would be exempt

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Speaker 2: from tariff's as part of a plan by the government

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Speaker 2: to tackle rising food costs for consumers. With the US

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Speaker 2: beef heard at its lowest in decades, places like Canada

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Speaker 2: and Australia have benefited filling that gap. For example, last

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Speaker 2: year sported nearly four one hundred and fifty thousand tons

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Speaker 2: of beef to the to the US, a bumper year,

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Speaker 2: notwithstanding the tariffs.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, certainly was, And it sounds like from everything that

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Speaker 1: we're hearing sean that the US is working really hard

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Speaker 1: to not let trade deals that have already been done

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Speaker 1: and signed off and finished essentially unravel Following the defeat

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Speaker 1: of the administration essentially at the Supreme Court late last week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so that decision ruled that the basis for Trump's

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Speaker 2: Liberation Day tariffs was unlawful. All deals done since then,

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Speaker 2: and that deals with China, European Union, Japan, South Korea

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Speaker 2: they remain in place. According to Jenmeson Greer, who is

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Speaker 2: the US Trade representative, it does sort of highlight the

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Speaker 2: confusion over the new tariffs and potentially the refund of

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Speaker 2: the old tariffs. Analysis so far suggests places like China

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Speaker 2: and Brazil, the ones that Donald Trump has been the

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Speaker 2: toughest on, they're benefiting most from that Supreme Court decision.

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Speaker 2: Long term, allies UK, EU, Japan are benefiting least. In fact,

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Speaker 2: suffering most is probably a better way, I think. The

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Speaker 2: point in all this it's really hard to know, firstly,

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Speaker 2: whether it's going to be temperson or a fifteen percent tariff,

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Speaker 2: whether or not that's his on top of current trade

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Speaker 2: deals done or not. Just absolute confusion in the world

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Speaker 2: of global trade.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Absolutely, and Australia obviously isn't happy about the tariffs,

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Speaker 1: although it does have a silver lining. Sean Trade Minister

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Speaker 1: Don Farrell says that Australia and Europe have made quote

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Speaker 1: more progress in the last few weeks than in the

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Speaker 1: last twenty five years towards reaching a free trade deal

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Speaker 1: that is safe, something incredible.

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Speaker 2: Speaking on Sky News, he said what's going on in

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Speaker 2: the US has helped the two sides come closer together.

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Speaker 2: We've tried very hard to do a deal with the

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Speaker 2: US with the EU for decades. It always comes down

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Speaker 2: to agriculture and we are probably more efficient, i say,

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Speaker 2: than them, and we never get a deal done. Farrell

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Speaker 2: also said the nature of US President Donald Trump's announcements

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Speaker 2: about tarist's last week was causing confusion, just as we

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Speaker 2: were saying a moment ago. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi

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Speaker 2: called the new s tariff unfair. Opposition Leeder Angus Taylor

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Speaker 2: said they were a bad move.

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Speaker 1: The local share market closed down zero point six percent yesterday,

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Speaker 1: down to nine twenty six points. Again, it was results

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Speaker 1: really that drove the big moves. Although all of this

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Speaker 1: tariff uncertainty was weighing broadly on the market, I suppose

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Speaker 1: you today.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean most sectors in the ASX went backwards

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Speaker 2: yesterday and that is that tariff issue. Now. The tech

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Speaker 2: stocks led the way again why set Global Next DC

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Speaker 2: Technology won all ended much lower. The materials companies, including

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Speaker 2: the miners, did best, not surprisingly spot gold Rose because

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Speaker 2: it would do that after all this uncertainty that helped

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Speaker 2: the gold diggers, Newmont Evolution Mining, Romeally's Resources BHP did

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Speaker 2: pretty well. The banks for down energy companies were off

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Speaker 2: in the back of a drop in the price of

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Speaker 2: oil CSL, Goodman Quarry. They are all sharply lower too.

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Speaker 1: All right, Sean, we have plenty more to come back

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Speaker 1: in a moment with the rest of the day's business news, Seawan.

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Speaker 1: The potential return of a cohort of Islamic state brides

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Speaker 1: and their children to Australia has become a political headache

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Speaker 1: for the government, with the Federal Coalition challenging Prime Minister

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Speaker 1: Anthony Alberesi to stop their return. The opposition basically once

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Speaker 1: laws that criminalize the actions of non government organizations or

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Speaker 1: advocates who help people linked to terrorism return to the country.

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Speaker 1: Opposition lyader Angus Taylor yesterday said that the new laws

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Speaker 1: were designed to quote target terrorists and terrorists sympathizers, although

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Speaker 1: Prime Minister Anthony Albanesi called the proposal not serious.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it'd be very difficult to implement. The

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Speaker 2: group of thirty four that have been trying to return

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Speaker 2: to Australia for the last week or so, there's still

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Speaker 2: their status is very much up in the Home Affairs

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Speaker 2: Minister Tony Burks of the government was not assisting the

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Speaker 2: women and children. They're all linked to Islamic state and

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Speaker 2: the government doesn't want them in Australia. However, they carry

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Speaker 2: Australian passports and only one woman would be prohibited from

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Speaker 2: entering the country because she was deemed by intelligence agencies

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Speaker 2: as high risk. You would like to think this would

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Speaker 2: be a bipartisan style debate, but clearly it's not.

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Speaker 1: No, No, I don't think so. Now, making a Nazi

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Speaker 1: salute as a joke is enough to justify sacking an

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Speaker 1: employee with more than a decade of service, according to

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Speaker 1: the Fair Work Commission. The commission backed rail operator Pacific

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Speaker 1: Nationals dismissal of a train driver who allegedly gave the

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Speaker 1: fascist salute to oncoming train crews out of station in

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Speaker 1: southern New South Wales on grounds that it was serious misconduct.

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Speaker 2: It came after a series of anti Semitic attacks in

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Speaker 2: New South Wales shortly after the Labour government outlawed the

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Speaker 2: Nazi salute. The driver had been at the company since

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Speaker 2: twenty fourteen, denied he made any Nazi gesture, argued he'd

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Speaker 2: been given giving the all clear hand signals. According to

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Speaker 2: the fin review, IM not sure if you saw the

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Speaker 2: photos that wasn't the orclear hand signal, which is pretty clear.

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Speaker 2: After examining, CCTV, Deputy President Bryce Cross found that the

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Speaker 2: evidence found the evidence clear and compelling that the gesture

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Speaker 2: was the Nazi sign and enough to establish a valid

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Speaker 2: reason for dismissal.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, the hab at this Sean the Gold

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Speaker 1: Coast in Queensland is getting a Trump tower, and.

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Speaker 2: Of course, of course it's a Gold Coast.

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Speaker 1: If the if anywhere in Australia was going to get

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Speaker 1: a Trump tower, it was always going to be the

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Speaker 1: Gold Coast, right, and it might actually end up being

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Speaker 1: the country's tallest building. The Trump Organization yesterday said it

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Speaker 1: had signed a hotel management agreement with a Queensland developer

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Speaker 1: to build a ninety one story hotel and residential tower

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Speaker 1: on the Gold Coast. There's no word yet on how

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Speaker 1: much kind of gold trim there will be.

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Speaker 2: There'd be a lot, though, wouldn't they.

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Speaker 1: I think it's safe to say, but that was actually

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Speaker 1: what I was jump in in the gold price yesterday.

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Speaker 2: The Trump International Hotel and Tower plan, to include two

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Speaker 2: hundred and eighty five luxury hotel rooms two hundred and

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Speaker 2: seventy two residential apartments, bear the trademark Trump logo. The

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Speaker 2: deal was struck last week at Marra Lago where that

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Speaker 2: Queensland property group they're called Alta's Property Group. Its founder

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Speaker 2: and chief executive, David Young, met with Eric Trump. That's

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Speaker 2: a Donald Trump junior. Eric Trump, executive vice president at

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Speaker 2: Trump Organization. He they signed the deal and apparently ninety

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Speaker 2: one story building on the Gold coast. There you go.

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Speaker 1: How about that?

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Speaker 2: Now?

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Speaker 1: Petrol and diesel supplies. You don't know what more to

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Speaker 1: say about it, right because it's going to be a

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Speaker 1: it's a big development, like it will be big, like

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Speaker 1: physically big and great to have that kind of construction

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Speaker 1: going on, but there was just so much kind of

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Speaker 1: extra stuff that comes with you, so much kind of

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Speaker 1: political elements to it, but also just how flashy those

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Speaker 1: towers are. It's just of course the Gold Coast anyway.

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Speaker 1: Petrol and diesel supplier Ampole Sean has posted a thirty

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Speaker 1: three percent drop in net profit for the full year.

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Speaker 1: But if you exclude the impact of oil prices on infantries,

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Speaker 1: which is then a measure that gives a better view,

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Speaker 1: I suppose of how the business is actually trending, then

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Speaker 1: profit was up more than eighty percent. There was earnings

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Speaker 1: growth inconvenience, retailing, fuels and infrastructure, and also Sean in

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Speaker 1: the New Zealand business. That's right.

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Speaker 2: Am Pole, which we used to call caltexs Australia also

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Speaker 2: declared a higher final dividend. Chief Executive Matt Halliday said

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Speaker 2: the group's commercial fuel and retail fuel and convenience businesses

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Speaker 2: in Australia and New Zealand were doing well. He added

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Speaker 2: that the Litton Refinery in Brisbane, two oil refineries in

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Speaker 2: this country, return to profitability in twenty twenty five. Now,

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Speaker 2: m Pole, Who's one point one billion dollar deal to

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Speaker 2: buy EG Australia is being scrutinized by the HALC said

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Speaker 2: it started the year strongly both in convenience retailing and

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Speaker 2: fuels and infrastructure. We've had a couple of years of

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Speaker 2: rough time for some of these guys, in particularly in

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Speaker 2: convenience retailing because cigarettees is such an important part of

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Speaker 2: their revenue. But they seem to have gotten through that

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Speaker 2: at this point, let's hope.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, And now Virgin Australia has reversed earlier plans

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Speaker 1: to make it harder for frequent flyers to climb the

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Speaker 1: all important status ladder, and it's going to give regular

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Speaker 1: travelers big status bonuses when they book flights. This is good.

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Speaker 2: News, Oh it is. But you know, people ask you

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Speaker 2: what status you are. Well, I'm not even a Virgin

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Speaker 2: frequent flyer, so I mean zero neutral, but even quantus

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Speaker 2: I have no idea.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, but I'm disgustingly low on all of the above.

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Speaker 2: Sean basically like game members who register can get between

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Speaker 2: forty five bonus status credits for two flights flowing between

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Speaker 2: January twelve and March thirty one, and one hundred and

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Speaker 2: twenty five bonus credits for six flights. I have absolutely

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Speaker 2: no idea what that means. It sounds like a lot. Yes, yes,

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Speaker 2: I don't know that. No, they're acrued by flying right.

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Speaker 2: You get a sort of benefits from it, so more

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Speaker 2: status credits, you might get lounge access, maybe extra luggage

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Speaker 2: priority seating. I like the battle for the back, you know,

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Speaker 2: where you just jump on and someone's on, everyone's on

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Speaker 2: in front of you, and you're trying to find a

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Speaker 2: spot to put your overhead and you can't. I like that.

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Speaker 2: Since October, Virgin has dramatically cut the number of status

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Speaker 2: credits earned on its cheapest flights. Unlike Quantas, which offers

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Speaker 2: credit largely based on distance flown and class of travel,

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Speaker 2: Velocity status credits accrue at a rate per dollars spent,

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Speaker 2: so if you get a cheap flight, you get fewer

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Speaker 2: velocity status credits, whereas it Quantas you get you know,

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Speaker 2: depending on how far you're flaw in its past at

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Speaker 2: the cost. All this comes ahead of Quantus' result on Thursday,

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Speaker 2: where it's expected to unveil a double status credits promotion.

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Speaker 2: Can't wait.

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Speaker 1: You will not be sleeping between now and then. I

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Speaker 1: always find it interesting when you see people who when

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Speaker 1: it's approaching the like the twelve month cutoff for status credits,

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Speaker 1: and they essentially take essentially a status flight which they

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Speaker 1: don't need to go. They might go from say Sydney

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Speaker 1: to Brisbane or Melbourne to Brisbane or whatever, just to

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Speaker 1: get the extra status points to make sure that they

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Speaker 1: are over that next tier into say silver or gold something.

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Speaker 1: And you see it all the time that if they're

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Speaker 1: hovering near the top, don't even need to fly, but

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Speaker 1: will do it because it has that much value. For

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Speaker 1: if you're a frequent flyer, the value is actually there.

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Speaker 1: I mean that's my life's ambition for me to actually

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Speaker 1: fly enough for that to be important.

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Speaker 2: I think that much perceived value. Shall we say, that's right?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, perceived value? Good point. Yes, let's get through some

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Speaker 1: some results from yesterday sean some briefs. Regious Healthcare share

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Speaker 1: price jumped eight percent after announcing better than expected revenue

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Speaker 1: and earnings, even though net profit was weighed down by

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Speaker 1: acquisition related items.

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Speaker 2: Parente tumbled fourteen percent after the diversified mining services group

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Speaker 2: to live in a we can expect it first half

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Speaker 2: trimned guidance for the full year.

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Speaker 1: Software company knew he had a good date at serve

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Speaker 1: more than fifteen percent as its December results exceeded expectations,

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Speaker 1: swinging to a net profit of eleven point one million dollars.

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Speaker 2: I love it that Nui is swinging to a net

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Speaker 2: profit of eleven point one million dollars. Michael Shipbuilder Ostill

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Speaker 2: fell eleven percent after a mixed trading update that beat

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Speaker 2: expectations but also raised a bunch of questions. The group's

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Speaker 2: audit report was qualified, and that's after the company disclosed

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Speaker 2: some incorrect accounting, So a little bit more going on there.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, shipbuilder is always one of those words you have

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Speaker 1: to say quite carefully, don't you.

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Speaker 2: Anyway, I think we're getting the point in the profit

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Speaker 2: season where we're just sort of starting to take the

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Speaker 2: mickey out of it, Like we've been going for two

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Speaker 2: and a half weeks and it's like enough, anyway.

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Speaker 1: Go on, now, we're done. Plumbing group Reese Sean jumped

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Speaker 1: fourteen percent after its first half earning speat consensus forecast

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Speaker 1: six months ago. That was a shocker. It was come

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Speaker 1: a long way since then. A disappointing result back then,

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Speaker 1: since its share price tumbling. It was one of the

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Speaker 1: most volatile stocks last time Reese has now recovered from

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Speaker 1: those losses.

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Speaker 2: It has. I thought you're going to tell me more

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Speaker 2: about it.

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Speaker 1: No, no, no, I was just making a quick point

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Speaker 1: of last time, because earning season was so volatile in

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Speaker 1: Augus of last year, that Reese was one of these

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Speaker 1: standouts for me, and I just wanted to add it

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Speaker 1: in there context matters and funny Le's it fell seven

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Speaker 1: percent as it swung to an operating net loss of

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Speaker 1: a mere three hundred and eighteen million dollars.

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Speaker 2: Whoa that was written by two hundred and eighty four

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Speaker 2: million dollar right down, So you're revaluing property now. The

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Speaker 2: group said earnings will improve in six months time because

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Speaker 2: they won't have all these impairments they've taken them and

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Speaker 2: things will get better, let's hope.

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Speaker 1: So it's nice and optimistic. That's good. Turning to international

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Speaker 1: news now Sean, the Australian government has issued a warning

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Speaker 1: for those traveling to Mexico following the death of drug

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Speaker 1: lord El Menchol military raid. El Mencho. I just he's

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Speaker 1: not one of the ones that I've heard of, Like

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Speaker 1: you've heard you hear of a bunch of them, and

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Speaker 1: I hadn't heard of Elmncho.

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Speaker 2: And the messiou Guera is his name. I think let's

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Speaker 2: call him El Mencho. Mexico's Defense ministry said a shootout

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Speaker 2: in in a western state in Mexico left him seriously injured.

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Speaker 2: He died during an air transport to Mexico City. The

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Speaker 2: ministry now that the US authorities had provided complementary information,

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Speaker 2: whatever that is. The operations set off a wave of violence,

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Speaker 2: with burning cars and gunmen blocking highways in more than

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Speaker 2: half a dozen states in Mexico, particularly in the country's

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Speaker 2: north and west, according to Reuters. As a result, Australia's

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Speaker 2: Smart Traveler website, it says Australian's need to exercise a

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Speaker 2: high degree of course in Mexico. My suggestion don't go,

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Speaker 2: certainly not to the northwest.

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Speaker 1: I think that's good advice. Sean. Up next is Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed Q and a great episode today. Sean, you're

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Speaker 1: speaking with Kevin Hebner, who is from Epoch Investment Partners.

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Speaker 1: He joins us on average about once a year from

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Speaker 1: the US, and every year it is a standout.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely, So we talk about me tech stocks and

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Speaker 2: the AI bubble or not. That's where we start. But

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Speaker 2: we go down all sorts of rabbit holes with Kevin

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Speaker 2: and really fascinating, I mean, just a great communicator. I

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Speaker 2: think we need to do more with Kevin because I

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Speaker 2: think that this morning's discussion is one of my favorites

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Speaker 2: of the year.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's one of those ones that I guarantee you

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Speaker 1: you will learn something, you just have a better understanding

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Speaker 1: by the end of this chat. It's a great one.

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Speaker 1: It's coming up next to the Fear and Gred playlist

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Speaker 1: on your pod cast platform or at Fearangreed dot com

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Speaker 1: dot au.

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Speaker 2: Thank you Sean, Thank you Michael.

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Speaker 1: It's Tuesday, the twenty fourth of February twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and join us online

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Speaker 1: on LinkedIn and Instagram. I'm Michael Thompson. That was Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed. We have a great day.