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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed. Wage growth slows in a

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Speaker 1: positive sign for inflation, Wistech Global gets hit with a

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Speaker 1: class action overturning guidance, and Donald Trump announces a Fox

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Speaker 1: News host as head of Defense. Plus plenty on bitcoin

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Speaker 1: the ASX, plus some big companies report profits. Welcome to

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed. Daily business news for people who make

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Speaker 1: their own decisions. It's Thursday, the fourteenth of November twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty four. I'm Adam Lang and good morning, Sean Almer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Adam, Sean.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning, public sector wages grew faster

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Speaker 1: than the private sector for the first time in four

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Speaker 1: years during September, and that's good news for anyone hoping

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Speaker 1: interest rates will fall sooner rather than later.

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Speaker 2: And Adam, I reckon that's most of us. Overall salary

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Speaker 2: growth fell to a two year low, with the ABS

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Speaker 2: saying wages growth was three and a half percent in

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Speaker 2: the year to September, down from four point one percent

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Speaker 2: in June. The public sector came in at three point

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Speaker 2: seven percent, the private sector three and a half per cent.

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Speaker 2: As you said, first time in four years that the

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Speaker 2: public sector has grown faster than the private sector. For

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Speaker 2: the quarter. It was there a point eight percent across

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Speaker 2: public and private that was actually below expectations slightly. Now,

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Speaker 2: interest rates are certainly slowing the private sector, and wages

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Speaker 2: just aren't rising as much. Much of the growth and

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Speaker 2: employment that we've seen recently is in government funded sectors

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Speaker 2: aged care, health education, those sorts of things. What's really

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Speaker 2: critical about these numbers that came out yesterday is at

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Speaker 2: their September quarter, and many wages reset on July one.

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Speaker 2: In fact, about forty five percent of employees got an

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Speaker 2: increase during the quarter. So the fact that private sector

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Speaker 2: wages growth has slowed so much good news. Wages are

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Speaker 2: a really big part of keeping prices lower. Put simply,

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Speaker 2: if wages rise, companies tend to pass on the extra

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Speaker 2: costs in higher prices. Hence, we like it if wages

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Speaker 2: don't rise too much unless there's productivity growth with it. Basically,

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Speaker 2: the figures yesterday reflect the cooling economy and a touch

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Speaker 2: weaker than and the numbers themselves are a touch weak

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Speaker 2: and then expected. The good news really is that wages

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Speaker 2: aren't putting as much pressure on inflation.

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Speaker 1: Sean, there was also good news on the inflation front

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Speaker 1: from the Commonwealth Bank its start suggested that the majority

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Speaker 1: of Stage three tax cuts, which commenced on one July,

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Speaker 1: were used to pay down debt rather than buy more

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Speaker 1: goods and services.

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Speaker 2: Yes, so the bank has about eight point eight billion

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Speaker 2: dollars worth of home loans in trouble, but it was

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Speaker 2: a percentage of its total loan book that hasn't changed.

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Speaker 2: Borrowers seems using the tax cuts to pay more off

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Speaker 2: their mortgages, thus keeping loan areas stable. Retail trade figures

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Speaker 2: from the ABS recently back that argument up. The fact

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Speaker 2: that people are using the money to pay down debt

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Speaker 2: rather than to go out and buy lots of stuff.

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Speaker 2: There has been no great surgeon spending as a result,

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Speaker 2: people receiving more money in their pay packets. Again, just

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Speaker 2: like we were talking about before when we're talking about

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Speaker 2: the wages stated. This is good news for anyone hoping

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Speaker 2: interest rates will fall. The fear was that people would

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Speaker 2: spend their tax cuts, keeping pressure on inflation. That doesn't

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Speaker 2: seem to have happened.

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Speaker 1: Sean's staying with the Commonwealth Bank. It expects that interest

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Speaker 1: rates will start falling early next year, probably in February.

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Speaker 2: Although Chief Executive Officer Matt Common said it's a finely

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Speaker 2: balanced call. He did say it was a safe bet.

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Speaker 2: Then he said it's a finally balanced call. Who knows,

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Speaker 2: maybe it could be later on hedging his bet hedging

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Speaker 2: his bets. That's actually a better way of putting it.

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Speaker 2: Mister Common said that the Australian that growth in this

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Speaker 2: Stonian economy remains slow, inflation is moderating only gradually, and

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Speaker 2: geopolitical tensions ensure there is plenty of uncertainty around. He

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Speaker 2: was providing first quarter results. The Commonwealth Bank made an

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Speaker 2: arfter tax profit of two point five billion dollars for

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Speaker 2: the three months. Home loans were up four and a

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Speaker 2: half percent, which was actually above the broader system. So

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Speaker 2: it's outperforming its competitors at least in terms of volume

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Speaker 2: of home loans. In business loans, Commonalth Bank has had

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Speaker 2: a big push into that area. They are up ten percent.

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Speaker 2: In the end. Commonf Bank's share price finished down half

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Speaker 2: percent yesterday, Shawn.

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Speaker 1: Across the local share market, it tumbled early yesterday, then

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Speaker 1: it recovered somewhat.

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Speaker 2: What was going on, well, there was a week of

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Speaker 2: lead in from Wall Street and unwinding of the Trump trade.

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Speaker 2: I'll talk about that in a moment, but things did

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Speaker 2: improve locally, and by the end of the day the

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Speaker 2: SMPASX two hundred was down three quarters of eighty percent

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Speaker 2: to eighty one hundred and ninety three points. Financials and

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Speaker 2: Industrial sold off hard, and and Edwin next dividend that

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Speaker 2: finished down more than four percent. Otherwise, the big banks

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Speaker 2: were generally lower, the retailers were lower, so to most

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Speaker 2: big miners. Few interesting bits and pieces around Yesterday, Knew

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Speaker 2: his share price tumbled twenty two percent, having hit a

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Speaker 2: record high in recent days, even though the group reiterated

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Speaker 2: its growth target for this financial year. Analyst said the

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Speaker 2: selloff might actually reflect the lack of detail in the

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Speaker 2: AX announcement. Life three sixties share price tubled seven percent

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Speaker 2: after it downgraded revenue forecast. It was the worst of

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Speaker 2: the top two hundred. Self Wealth jumped seventy five percent

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Speaker 2: after Bell Financial made a fifty one million dollar buy

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Speaker 2: out bid. That's not a top two hundred stock, obviously,

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Speaker 2: that's a tidlum. Best of the top two hundred was

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Speaker 2: Palade and Energy, which jumped nine percent, having fallen twenty

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Speaker 2: nine percent on Tuesday.

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Speaker 1: Sean immediately after the show, we want everyone to stay

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Speaker 1: listening to the property pendulum, our collaboration with Domain on

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Speaker 1: All Things Property with Alice Stultson. Michael Thompson.

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Speaker 2: Yes, I had a sneak listen to it all about

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Speaker 2: those questions that you dread asking when you're looking at houses.

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Speaker 2: You know, how much is the house going to self?

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Speaker 2: Or what's the price range? What's the best off of

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Speaker 2: They'll accept all that stuff. Michael and Alice talk about

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Speaker 2: addressing those sorts of questions.

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Speaker 1: Sean. When I was younger, I was probably a bit coy,

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Speaker 1: but now that's more mature.

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Speaker 2: I have no last question totally. I absolutely agree going

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Speaker 2: how much is it going to sell for? Is this

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Speaker 2: the bottom price?

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Speaker 1: Good?

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Speaker 2: Right?

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Speaker 1: Any wiggle room? Come on, surely there's something.

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Speaker 2: I have worked with you for many years, Adam. You

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Speaker 2: are a very good negotiator, no doubt about it.

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Speaker 1: We'll be back in a moment with the rest of

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Speaker 1: the day's business news, Sean. The federal opposition will support

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Speaker 1: government proposals to shake up merger laws, which will introduce

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Speaker 1: mandatory notification where companies involving mergers meet certain monetary thresholds.

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Speaker 2: It's quite a big change. Jim Chalmers, the Federal Treasury

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Speaker 2: is trying to stop mergers that boost industry concentration, lesson

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Speaker 2: competition and give dominant players more ability to push up prices.

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Speaker 2: At the moment, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission runs

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Speaker 2: a voluntary notification regime under the new rules mergers where

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Speaker 2: the Australian turnover of the combined businesses is above two

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Speaker 2: hundred million dollars, or either of the businesses has turned

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Speaker 2: over a fifty million dollars, or the company has more

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Speaker 2: than two hundred and fifty million dollars in revenue globally.

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Speaker 2: Bunch of will's there, Well, you'll need to seek a

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Speaker 2: Triple C approval. It will capture a lot more companies.

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Speaker 2: The Triple C will also be able to request the

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Speaker 2: Treasure designate sectors of the economy where every deal would

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Speaker 2: require approval, regardless of the transaction size. According to the

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Speaker 2: fin Review A Triple C chair Gena Kascotdlip has already

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Speaker 2: singled out supermarkets, liquor stores, pathology and private cancer radiation

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Speaker 2: for special attention.

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Speaker 1: Sure and Opposition leader Peter Dutton has also gone call

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Speaker 1: on tax cuts for high income owners. That's interesting, it.

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Speaker 2: Seems that way Peter Dutton yesterday told ABC radio that

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Speaker 2: tax cuts were good, but the opposition's policy will depend

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Speaker 2: on what money's available and how spending is prioritized. He

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Speaker 2: had been pushing tax cuts for higher income workers quite

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Speaker 2: aggressively to address bracket creep. Seems to have changed his

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Speaker 2: mind on that one.

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Speaker 1: The electioneering continues. Sewan tech leader wis Tech Global is

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Speaker 1: facing a class action alleging the group failed to tell

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Speaker 1: investors it was falling short of aggressive earnings targets.

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Speaker 2: The allegations in the Supreme Court of Victoria, so the

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Speaker 2: company has had several opportunities to update guidance in mid

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Speaker 2: twenty nineteen, but didn't. Wise Tech back then said it

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Speaker 2: was on track for record earnings of around one hundred

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Speaker 2: and fifty million dollars for the year ending June twenty twenty.

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Speaker 2: Twice it came out and said it was on track

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Speaker 2: hit guidance, but eventually it revised its earnings to around

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Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty three million dollars. That's quite a drop.

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Speaker 2: It triggered a twenty seven percent fall in its share

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Speaker 2: price in one session, a further twelve percent the next day.

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Speaker 2: As a result, the class action has gotten up and

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Speaker 2: is arguing that the Wise Tech Global wasn't totally forthcoming

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Speaker 2: about the information it had. The share price finished down

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Speaker 2: one percent yesterday.

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Speaker 1: Sean, We've been talking about Aristocrat Leisure this week, abyers

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Speaker 1: and it will pay a higher dividend after announcing a

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Speaker 1: seventeen percent jump in full year profit.

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Speaker 2: Yes, that's a normalized profit. The statutory profit was actually

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Speaker 2: down ten percent, in part due to the right downs

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Speaker 2: of its mobile gaming business, which is what we've been

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Speaker 2: talking about in the past couple of days. Overall, Aristocrat

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Speaker 2: Leisures share price finished up three percent yesterday.

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Speaker 1: And Sean moving on to building products group. James Hardy's

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Speaker 1: share price jumped six percent after it said it expects

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Speaker 1: to deliver better profitability and launched a US three hundred

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Speaker 1: million dollar buyback.

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Speaker 2: The improved outlock comes after an au decline in sales

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Speaker 2: and earnings in the September quarter. Net profit was down

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Speaker 2: twenty three percent due to what it said were challenging

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Speaker 2: demand a challenging demand environment, particularly in Asia and Europe.

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Speaker 1: Sean Mineral Resources share price fell seven percent yesterday after

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Speaker 1: it mothballed its ball Hill lit Your Mine in Western Australia.

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Speaker 2: More bad news for this company, which is under attack somewhat.

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Speaker 2: The mothballing is effective immediately. Three hundred staff will be

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Speaker 2: either sacked or redeployed. Closing the mind will preserve cash

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Speaker 2: and the value of bald Hill's spot Mean or body

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Speaker 2: when prices or for when prices improved. That's according to

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Speaker 2: the company him. Spot Aman is fetching about eight hundred

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Speaker 2: US dollars a ton at the moment. It's about ten

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Speaker 2: percent of its price two years ago it was eight

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Speaker 2: thousand US dollars a ton. Incredible. It suffered a lot

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Speaker 2: more supply from China, also had a lot more supply

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Speaker 2: from Africa too. There's also lower demand for evs. Yesterday,

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Speaker 2: just before we leave Mineral Resources, we know that Chris Ellison,

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Speaker 2: the founding CEO, is going to step down over the

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Speaker 2: next eighteen months. There was a bit of speculation around

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Speaker 2: the place yesterday that the boss of Santos, Kevin Gallagher,

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Speaker 2: might replace Chris Ellison at Mineral Resources. Santos came out

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Speaker 2: and said the rumors were fabricated, without foundation and false.

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Speaker 2: I think they're saying they're not true.

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Speaker 1: Sean. The Trump trade has taken a breather with Tesla's

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Speaker 1: share price falling six percent and US equity steady. While

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Speaker 1: Bitcoin has come off a bit.

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Speaker 2: Yes, just a bit back under eighty eight thousand US

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Speaker 2: dollars a Wall Street and particularly the share pasce of Tesla,

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Speaker 2: has jumped post the Trump election. Tesla until yesterday was

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Speaker 2: up more than forty percent in five sessions. The hopes

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Speaker 2: on Wall Street that Donald Trump enacts big tax cuts

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Speaker 2: for large businesses, helping earnings. Trump administration one point zero

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Speaker 2: did exactly that this time. The difference this time around, though, Adam,

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Speaker 2: is that in the year before Trump was elected in

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Speaker 2: twenty sixteen, Wall Street went backwards by about two percent.

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Speaker 2: In the years to last Tuesday, Wall Street was up

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Speaker 2: more than twenty five percent. Back in twenty sixteen, Wall

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Speaker 2: Street was undervalued. Not so today. We'll have to wait

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Speaker 2: and see about that one. Otherwise, Brent Cruz trading around

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Speaker 2: seventy two US dollars. A barrel goal continues its slow

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Speaker 2: to climb, and an ounce of the precious metal is

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Speaker 2: worth just over twenty six hundred US dollars. The Aussie

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Speaker 2: dollar is training just over sixty five US cents.

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Speaker 1: Shawn. President elect Donald Trump continues to unveil members of

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Speaker 1: his incoming team, and Elon Musk and Vivek Gramuswami will

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Speaker 1: co lead a US Department of Government Efficiency MASK.

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Speaker 2: We know Ramaswami well. He ran in the Republican primaries,

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Speaker 2: got knocked out pretty early. He's an entrepreneur who previously

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Speaker 2: made a lot of money from a far pharmaceutical company.

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Speaker 2: Trump said it will become the Manhattan Project of our time. Now,

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Speaker 2: I thought the Manhadnant Project was about building the atomic bomb. Yes,

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Speaker 2: whether it's a great analogy. Maybe they did it really quickly.

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Speaker 2: Maybe that's kind of the analogy, but not sure.

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Speaker 1: He's always gone big, hasn't he? Trump?

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Speaker 2: Very big, very big? He said the new department will

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Speaker 2: seek to slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditure, and restructure

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Speaker 2: federal agencies. MASK, in a very Trump esque moment last month,

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Speaker 2: said he could cut two trillion who were stillars from

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Speaker 2: the federal budget. That's more than a third of total spending.

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Speaker 2: Who knows what happens to stuff like Social Security, Medicare

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Speaker 2: and older people, Medicaid for low income veterans benefits.

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Speaker 1: Who knows the defense?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, there's even more astounding parts of this story. Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump yesterday came out and said he'd nominate Fox News

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Speaker 2: host Pete Hegsmith to be his secretary of Defense. H

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Speaker 2: is he qualified? Well, he is an army veteran, no

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Speaker 2: government experience whatsoever. He'll be in charge of three million

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Speaker 2: military and civilian employees. Pete Heggsmith, heigs fifth and mostly

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Speaker 2: because he's a Fox News host. Quite amazing. Former Texas

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Speaker 2: Congressman John Ratcliffe is going to be the director of

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Speaker 2: the CIA. Bit of a fire brand that one, too.

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Speaker 1: Sean, If you were doing the recruitment for the Trump administration,

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Speaker 1: would you take an orthodox approach?

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Speaker 2: Oh? What I mean?

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Speaker 1: I cast the net wide? I think yeah, is the guidance.

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Speaker 2: I mean getting an ankorman like someone it and anchorman

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Speaker 2: at Fox News to run your secretary of defense.

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Speaker 1: Seriously, Well, we're big fans of the movie Ron Burgundy here,

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Speaker 1: so maybe there's some lessons.

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Speaker 2: In that, maybe beyond me, Sean.

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Speaker 1: Moving on to China, Beijing has unveiled its latest stealth fighter,

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Speaker 1: the J thirty five A, as part of the modernization of

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Speaker 1: its military.

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Speaker 2: So there was a five minute air show over the

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Speaker 2: past couple of days. According to the Financial Times, China

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Speaker 2: is trying to modernize its military and challenge at US

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Speaker 2: dominance in the Asia Pacific region, especially around Taiwan. Only

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Speaker 2: two countries, China and the US, can now produce two

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Speaker 2: types of stealth bombers. Great about stealth bomber right, which

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Speaker 2: I can never quite work out, so they boast about them.

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Speaker 2: You can't detect them by radar, you can't detect them

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Speaker 2: from infrared sensors. You can't see them. You can't see them.

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Speaker 2: How can you not see them?

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Speaker 1: Pretty big?

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Speaker 2: Maybe it's slightly camoufage or something.

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Speaker 1: Day what's that in the sky? Ignore that you can't

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Speaker 1: see it? Yeah?

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Speaker 2: I know. In fact, it was actually an air show

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Speaker 2: to show it off yesterday. If you couldn't see it,

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Speaker 2: why we'd have an air show to show it off anyway, Oh, Sean.

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Speaker 1: Up next is the property pendulum. It's all about asking

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Speaker 1: the hard questions when looking for a house. That's up

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Speaker 1: next in the Fear and Greed playlist on your favorite

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Speaker 1: podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com dot au. Thank you, Sean,

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Speaker 1: Thank you very much.

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Speaker 2: Adam.

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Speaker 1: It's Thursday, the fourteenth of November twenty twenty four. Make

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Speaker 1: sure you're following the podcast. Join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram,

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Speaker 1: x TikTok and Facebook and please have a great day.