WEBVTT - How has Donald Trump changed America?

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Daniel James, and you're listening to seven ams. In

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<v Speaker 1>just one year, Donald Trump has transformed America's government and

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<v Speaker 1>its institutions. His actions and agenda reflect the far more

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<v Speaker 1>involved in president in his second term, and the guardrails

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<v Speaker 1>designed to keep a president in check from the courts

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<v Speaker 1>to Congress are buckling. Trump's success and reshaping the system

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<v Speaker 1>raises deeper questions about exactly what kind of country the

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<v Speaker 1>United States will become. Today. Director of the Australian Institutes

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<v Speaker 1>International and Security Affairs Program, Doctor Emma shortis on how

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<v Speaker 1>Trump is remaking American politics and whether there is any

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<v Speaker 1>way back from here. It's Friday, January second. We're almost

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<v Speaker 1>a year into Donald Trump's second term. When you look

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<v Speaker 1>at the United States, now, what strikes you most about

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<v Speaker 1>how he's actually governing?

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<v Speaker 2>I think the most striking thing, Daniel, is that Trump

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<v Speaker 2>is doing exactly what he said he would do. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>he in Project twenty twenty five gave us all the plans,

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<v Speaker 2>They wrote it all down.

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<v Speaker 3>And set it out loud, and now they're doing it,

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<v Speaker 3>you know.

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<v Speaker 2>And I think the best description of how they're doing

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<v Speaker 2>it is to move fast and break things.

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<v Speaker 1>Since he's swearing in, Trump has been pursuing plans laid

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<v Speaker 1>out in Project twenty twenty five to dramatically expand presidential

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<v Speaker 1>power and reduce the size of the federal.

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<v Speaker 3>Trump Administration's been getting mass layoffs of federal workers, impacting

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<v Speaker 3>multiple agency.

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<v Speaker 4>Big tremendous saving. We want to downsize government, but make

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<v Speaker 4>it better.

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<v Speaker 1>And Donald Trump's administration is dismantling the US Agency for

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<v Speaker 1>International Development or USA.

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<v Speaker 4>Administration is stepping up its pushed to break up the

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<v Speaker 4>Department of Education, transferring much of the agency's workload, including

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<v Speaker 4>six offices.

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<v Speaker 3>So I think for me that's the most striking thing.

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<v Speaker 2>But I guess perhaps the most prizing thing about that

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<v Speaker 2>is how quickly that has happened. I think that has

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<v Speaker 2>taken a lot of people, including myself, by surprise. Just

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<v Speaker 2>how I guess easily Trump has been able to implement

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<v Speaker 2>that agenda, and how easily the guardrails have fallen.

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<v Speaker 1>Tell me more about the idea of guardrails giving away.

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<v Speaker 1>Where have you sent examples of the system changing to

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<v Speaker 1>accommodate Trump rather than restraining him.

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<v Speaker 3>We're seeing them fall just across the board.

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<v Speaker 2>The demolition of the White House, or the East wing

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<v Speaker 2>of the White House, I think is a small example

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<v Speaker 2>of how that is happening.

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<v Speaker 4>Nobody's actually seen anything quite like it. I think it'll

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<v Speaker 4>be one of the great borums anywhere in the world.

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<v Speaker 4>It's about three hundred million dollars.

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<v Speaker 2>So the Trump administration has engaged in that demolition against

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<v Speaker 2>all legal, normative, congressional political processes.

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<v Speaker 3>Trust for Historic Preservation has filed a lawsuit to stop

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<v Speaker 3>in Trump's White House ballroom construction. The group says, no president.

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<v Speaker 2>And there's apparently no way to resist that. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>by the time legal proceedings are initiated, it's already been destroyed.

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<v Speaker 3>And again that's a.

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<v Speaker 2>Small but important symbol of how that's happening across the board,

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<v Speaker 2>and how Trump is being aided by a legal system,

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<v Speaker 2>including the Supreme Court, which he effectively owns and which

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<v Speaker 2>continually is helping him to destroy those guardrails by saying

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<v Speaker 2>effectively that he has a king like immunity.

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<v Speaker 1>The US Supreme Court has rule that Donald Trump has

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<v Speaker 1>some immunity from prosecution for official actions taken while he

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<v Speaker 1>was in the White House.

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<v Speaker 2>By basically being on the verge of gutting the Voting

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<v Speaker 2>Rights Act, which it's expected they will do.

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<v Speaker 3>So the broad picture there is pretty grim. Really, Can you.

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<v Speaker 1>Just tell us a little bit more about the Voting

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<v Speaker 1>Rights Act? What is it that he's planning to do there.

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<v Speaker 2>So, this is a case from Louisiana that aims to

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<v Speaker 2>completely gut the parts of the Voting Rights Act that

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<v Speaker 2>ensure that discrimination doesn't occur on the basis of race.

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<v Speaker 2>And this is again has been a long term project

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<v Speaker 2>of the conservative movement, aided and are vetted by Trump,

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<v Speaker 2>and key justices on the Supreme Court are already signaling

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<v Speaker 2>that they are at least amenable to making that decision.

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<v Speaker 2>So for the Voting Rights Act, that will mean that

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<v Speaker 2>that key piece of legislation, civil rights movement legislation will

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<v Speaker 2>be effectively rendered powerless. And I think we have to

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<v Speaker 2>see that alongside the Trump administration's other attacks against voting rights,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, his threat to gut mail in voting as well,

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<v Speaker 2>the redistricting of states like Texas. All of that, again,

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<v Speaker 2>at risk of my repeating myself, paints a pretty grim

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<v Speaker 2>picture for the future of American democracy.

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<v Speaker 1>And let's talk about it immigration, because that's central to

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<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump's agenda. He's promised to deport millions of people.

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<v Speaker 1>What has he actually done. Do we have an idea

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<v Speaker 1>of what sort of numbers we're talking about.

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<v Speaker 2>We do have an idea of numbers, although it is

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<v Speaker 2>difficult to get credible information from the agencies that are

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<v Speaker 2>enforcing these policies. You know, certainly Trump the Trump administration

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<v Speaker 2>hasn't fulfilled its promise to deport ten million people. The

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<v Speaker 2>numbers we have suggest ICE is deporting somewhere between ten

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<v Speaker 2>to fifteen thousand people a month, so not near those numbers.

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<v Speaker 2>But it also has around, as far as we know,

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<v Speaker 2>sixty thousand people in arbitrary detention, and is disappearing people

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<v Speaker 2>and deporting people arbitrarily without recourse to due process. I

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<v Speaker 2>think we can't underestimate the damage that that is inflicting,

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<v Speaker 2>not just on individual lives, but on American society more broadly.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, with that lack of process, is they're a

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<v Speaker 1>feeling in America that if it can happen to immigrants,

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<v Speaker 1>it can happen to US citizens as well. If there

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<v Speaker 1>is no process, well.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean it is happening to American citizens.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, the agents on the ground who are enforcing

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<v Speaker 2>these policies have already arbitrarily detained American citizens, and I

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<v Speaker 2>think that is reflected or that general sense of fear

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<v Speaker 2>and discussed at what the administration is doing is reflected

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<v Speaker 2>in opinion polling that we have. So a recent Gallup

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<v Speaker 2>poll suggests that somewhere around thirty five percent of Americans

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<v Speaker 2>approve of the Trump administration's immigration policies, so a pretty

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<v Speaker 2>low number, very high net disapproval rating, and we can

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<v Speaker 2>see that in opinion polling, not just in the United States,

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<v Speaker 2>but outside it as well.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up, what does Donald trump ree making of us

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<v Speaker 1>democracy mean for future elections?

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<v Speaker 4>When you look at the costs of groceries, the costs

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<v Speaker 4>of bacon went up four and five times bacon.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't order bacon anymore. It's still expensive, Emma. There

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<v Speaker 1>is one big promise that Donald Trump hasn't lived on,

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<v Speaker 1>and that's affordability. He was elected on the platform of

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<v Speaker 1>making life cheaper.

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<v Speaker 4>One of my top priorities will be to quickly defeat

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<v Speaker 4>inflation and make America affordable again.

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<v Speaker 3>We will quickly defeat him.

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<v Speaker 1>So do you think that failure is going to hurt

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<v Speaker 1>him as well?

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<v Speaker 3>It's a really difficult question to answer.

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<v Speaker 2>I think because Trump is so extraordinarily good at reframing

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<v Speaker 2>narratives and a redirecting blame. So it's been really interesting

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<v Speaker 2>to see a lot of the coverage of a rally

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<v Speaker 2>that Trump held in Pennsylvania, which was supposed to be,

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<v Speaker 2>or was billed as the affordability Rally where Trump would

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<v Speaker 2>address these concerns and public opinion shifting against him when

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<v Speaker 2>it comes to affordability because exactly as you said, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>he hasn't fulfilled those promises.

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<v Speaker 4>Down rapidly, lower prices, bigger paychecks. You're getting lower prices.

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<v Speaker 2>And you know, Trump did talk a bit about affordability.

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<v Speaker 2>He called it a hoax. He called it all hoax.

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<v Speaker 3>Unsurprisingly, you're coming down very substantially.

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<v Speaker 1>But they have a new word.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, they always have a hoax. The new word

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<v Speaker 4>is affordability.

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<v Speaker 2>And spent most of the time in an appallingly, even

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<v Speaker 2>for Trump, an appallingly racist tirade against as he describes them,

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<v Speaker 2>shit whole country where.

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<v Speaker 4>Prisons are emptied into our country, right where where people

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<v Speaker 4>from all over the world being dumped into our country,

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<v Speaker 4>the people that aren't wanted in their countries. By the way,

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<v Speaker 4>I think that's a great like Somalia, welcome, and.

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<v Speaker 2>A lot of a lot of the coverage of that

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<v Speaker 2>rally describes Trump as you know, being unable to stay

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<v Speaker 2>on message when it comes to affordability or being distracted,

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<v Speaker 2>And I don't think that's necessarily what's going on. I

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<v Speaker 2>think what Trump is doing is what he always does,

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<v Speaker 2>which is redirecting blain to others. And I think that

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<v Speaker 2>was a very effective example of how Trump does that,

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<v Speaker 2>and how so much coverage is still unable to grapple

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<v Speaker 2>with how effectively he does that. So affordability, of course,

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<v Speaker 2>is a huge issue for Americans, and the Trump administration

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<v Speaker 2>is actively making the problem worse through tariffs, through the

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<v Speaker 2>failure or the refusal, I should say, to renew those

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<v Speaker 2>tax credits that made health insurance more affordable for people.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, Americans are looking at enormous increases in their

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<v Speaker 2>monthly health insurance cost on top of the cost of

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<v Speaker 2>living crisis. So Americans are deeply economically insecure. But what

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<v Speaker 2>the political consequences of that are and whether it comes

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<v Speaker 2>back to bite Trump, I think is far from settled.

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<v Speaker 1>Looking ahead, we've got the midterms in November of next year.

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<v Speaker 1>In a normal cycle, with this level of discontent, you'd

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<v Speaker 1>expect the president's party to take a political hit. Is

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<v Speaker 1>that what we're looking at you?

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<v Speaker 3>I don't think so. I mean, you use the word normal.

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<v Speaker 2>This is not normal, and we can't treat it like

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<v Speaker 2>it's normal. You're absolutely right that in a normal political cycle,

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<v Speaker 2>we would expect Republicans to be absolutely wiped out at

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<v Speaker 2>the midterms. You know, we would expect to see a

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<v Speaker 2>blue wave and for Republicans to lose control of the House.

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<v Speaker 2>And now look that may still happen. There was an

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<v Speaker 2>election in Miami where a Democrat won comprehensively for the

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<v Speaker 2>first time in something like thirty years. Miami is now

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<v Speaker 2>run by a Democrat, and that's an indication, I think

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<v Speaker 2>of how things are going nationally. I think we saw

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<v Speaker 2>that in the latest round of elections, where of course

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<v Speaker 2>famously Mamdani was elected as Mayor of New York. But

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<v Speaker 2>having said that, Republicans are reading the writing on the wall,

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<v Speaker 2>and Trump is reading the writing on the wall, and

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<v Speaker 2>they are engaged in very effective efforts to engineer American

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<v Speaker 2>democratic institutions and processes so that they can hold onto power.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, they're gerrymandering in states like Texas, they likely

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<v Speaker 2>will in states like Louisiana. They are not the slightest

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<v Speaker 2>bit interested in giving up power. They want to keep

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<v Speaker 2>the power to decide who is American and who gets

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<v Speaker 2>to have a say in what America is.

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<v Speaker 1>And so do the Democrats have any kind of counter

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<v Speaker 1>strategy that matches the scale of what's happening.

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<v Speaker 3>No, in a word, they don't.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, there are signs of it, absolutely, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>I mentioned New York earlier, I mentioned Miami Democrats one

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<v Speaker 2>comprehensively in a series of elections not that long ago.

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<v Speaker 2>But there is not a broader strategy I think to

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<v Speaker 2>oppose Trump. The Democratic Party is still engaged in a

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<v Speaker 2>war with itself about not only you know, how to

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<v Speaker 2>oppose Trump, but what it even stands for. And I

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<v Speaker 2>think we could see that in the results in New York,

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<v Speaker 2>where you know, the progressive wing of the party mobilized

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<v Speaker 2>a base, won a comprehensive victory and was met with

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<v Speaker 2>you know, indifference and sometimes discussed by the leadership of

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<v Speaker 2>the party. Senator Chuck Schumer couldn't even bring himself to

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<v Speaker 2>say that he had or hadn't voted for Mamdani. And

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<v Speaker 2>in the face of such an onslaught against American democracy

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<v Speaker 2>from Republicans and the Trump administration. That is I think

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<v Speaker 2>an egregious failure on the part of democrats.

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<v Speaker 1>If we take a look beyond just the United States,

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<v Speaker 1>where do you see Trump's influence most clearly on the

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<v Speaker 1>world stage.

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<v Speaker 2>I think I would start by saying that we can't

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<v Speaker 2>draw arbitrary lines between domestic US domestic politics and what

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<v Speaker 2>the United States does abroad. You know, what the United

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<v Speaker 2>States does abroad is a projection of domestic politics, and

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<v Speaker 2>it always has been. Trump, I think, just makes that

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<v Speaker 2>more obvious. And so the influence is everywhere, but most

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<v Speaker 2>of you at the moment, of course, it's happening in Venezuela,

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<v Speaker 2>where the United States is engaged in effectively a war

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<v Speaker 2>against the Maduro regime, where it is throwing out all

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<v Speaker 2>the rules of conflict and the international rule of law

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<v Speaker 2>and behaving really like a rogue state. And that is

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<v Speaker 2>I think going to extreme lengths in Venezuela. But we're

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<v Speaker 2>also seeing it in other areas. The Trump administration has

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<v Speaker 2>just released a new national security strategy where it effectively

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<v Speaker 2>commits to interfering in the domestic democratic politics of European

0:13:38.200 --> 0:13:40.760
<v Speaker 2>nations to its own ends, where it's effectively said it

0:13:40.760 --> 0:13:43.600
<v Speaker 2>will support the far right in Europe in order to

0:13:43.720 --> 0:13:48.880
<v Speaker 2>quote unquote rescue Western democracy. And really what that is,

0:13:48.920 --> 0:13:52.600
<v Speaker 2>what that national security strategy is, is a foreign policy

0:13:52.640 --> 0:13:56.480
<v Speaker 2>of white supremacy. That's I think how we have to

0:13:56.559 --> 0:14:00.000
<v Speaker 2>understand it. And so the Trump administration is quite openly

0:14:00.280 --> 0:14:06.360
<v Speaker 2>seeking to spread its influence and its power across the world,

0:14:06.400 --> 0:14:09.480
<v Speaker 2>with a particular focus on the Western hemisphere and places

0:14:09.520 --> 0:14:12.640
<v Speaker 2>like Venezuela, but it isn't limited to that.

0:14:13.240 --> 0:14:15.360
<v Speaker 1>So these changes that Donald Trump is making to the

0:14:15.360 --> 0:14:18.600
<v Speaker 1>way politics works in the United States, is there any

0:14:18.600 --> 0:14:19.400
<v Speaker 1>coming back from that?

0:14:21.280 --> 0:14:24.760
<v Speaker 2>I think my first question, I suppose, in response to

0:14:24.800 --> 0:14:28.920
<v Speaker 2>that is back to what, you know, what could the

0:14:29.000 --> 0:14:31.280
<v Speaker 2>United States want to go back to?

0:14:31.600 --> 0:14:32.360
<v Speaker 3>You know, what?

0:14:32.520 --> 0:14:36.760
<v Speaker 2>Meaning can we make out of American history? I think

0:14:36.800 --> 0:14:39.560
<v Speaker 2>there's a way out. There are multiple ways out, and

0:14:39.880 --> 0:14:42.920
<v Speaker 2>certainly if you look at American history, the United States

0:14:43.000 --> 0:14:47.960
<v Speaker 2>does have an extraordinary ability to reinvent and revitalize itself

0:14:48.200 --> 0:14:51.560
<v Speaker 2>out of crisis, and it is in a deep crisis now.

0:14:52.200 --> 0:14:55.080
<v Speaker 2>So where it goes from here, I think he's almost

0:14:55.120 --> 0:14:59.359
<v Speaker 2>anyone's guess. You know, American politics is continually surprising in

0:14:59.440 --> 0:15:04.600
<v Speaker 2>that sense, but in a way. I think where it

0:15:04.640 --> 0:15:08.600
<v Speaker 2>goes from here is really dependent on how effective Donald

0:15:08.640 --> 0:15:12.920
<v Speaker 2>Trump in his administration is in its project to radically

0:15:13.720 --> 0:15:18.160
<v Speaker 2>reshape the United States an American society and in those

0:15:18.200 --> 0:15:22.760
<v Speaker 2>decisions about who gets to be American. And at the

0:15:22.800 --> 0:15:28.040
<v Speaker 2>moment they seem to be implementing that radical agenda with

0:15:28.240 --> 0:15:32.640
<v Speaker 2>very little resistance. That may change, but at the moment

0:15:32.640 --> 0:15:36.520
<v Speaker 2>it's not clear where that resistance will come from and

0:15:36.560 --> 0:15:38.480
<v Speaker 2>how united it could be.

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<v Speaker 1>Emer It's always great to speak with you. Thanks for

0:15:42.760 --> 0:15:43.960
<v Speaker 1>taking the time to speak with us.

0:15:44.040 --> 0:15:45.680
<v Speaker 3>It's a pleasure. Thanks so much for having me.

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<v Speaker 1>Tomorrow on the show, we're tracing the origins of the

0:15:59.800 --> 0:16:02.440
<v Speaker 1>eye that gave us the tech industry as we know

0:16:02.520 --> 0:16:05.440
<v Speaker 1>it today. Back in the nineties, a small group of

0:16:05.440 --> 0:16:09.080
<v Speaker 1>men in Silicon Valley imagined a world without governments or rules,

0:16:09.600 --> 0:16:13.120
<v Speaker 1>a world run by code. They wanted technology to replace

0:16:13.160 --> 0:16:16.600
<v Speaker 1>politics all together. Now their dreams have come true, beyond

0:16:16.640 --> 0:16:21.480
<v Speaker 1>their wildest imaginations, and we're all living with the consequences. Tomorrow,

0:16:21.520 --> 0:16:24.120
<v Speaker 1>how democracy is being reshaped by the tech world's most

0:16:24.200 --> 0:16:28.400
<v Speaker 1>dangerous philosophy. I'm Daniel James. This is seven AM. See

0:16:28.440 --> 0:16:37.440
<v Speaker 1>you tomorrow.