1 00:00:04,050 --> 00:00:06,510 Sean Alma: Welcome to the Fear and Greed daily interview. I'm Shawn 2 00:00:06,510 --> 00:00:09,059 Sean Alma: Alma. We're now well into earning season. So it's a 3 00:00:09,060 --> 00:00:11,880 Sean Alma: good time to talk to Matthew Kidman, principle at Centennial 4 00:00:11,880 --> 00:00:14,700 Sean Alma: Asset Management. It's a Fear and Greed favorite, particularly, when 5 00:00:14,700 --> 00:00:18,030 Sean Alma: it comes to stocks. Remember, this is general information only. 6 00:00:18,030 --> 00:00:21,090 Sean Alma: You should get professional advice before making any investment decisions. 7 00:00:21,300 --> 00:00:22,950 Sean Alma: Matthew, welcome back to Fear and Greed 8 00:00:23,310 --> 00:00:24,150 Matthew Kidman: Good day, Sean. 9 00:00:24,660 --> 00:00:27,090 Sean Alma: So what are some of the key themes you've seen 10 00:00:27,090 --> 00:00:28,680 Sean Alma: in earning season so far? 11 00:00:29,220 --> 00:00:32,940 Matthew Kidman: Well, it's a bit uneventful, Sean. It's interesting. Well, obviously, 12 00:00:32,940 --> 00:00:36,990 Matthew Kidman: we saw BHP come out as Australia's biggest stock. A 13 00:00:36,990 --> 00:00:38,970 Matthew Kidman: result that was pretty well in line, but a better 14 00:00:38,970 --> 00:00:41,970 Matthew Kidman: cash flow. Great dividend, everyone got excited, said they were 15 00:00:41,970 --> 00:00:44,010 Matthew Kidman: going to invest more, which is great for the country. 16 00:00:44,430 --> 00:00:47,580 Matthew Kidman: Great for a bunch of mining services sector, which got 17 00:00:47,580 --> 00:00:49,590 Matthew Kidman: a bit of a kick out of that. The banks 18 00:00:49,590 --> 00:00:51,629 Matthew Kidman: we've only seen CBAs full set of accounts, and we've 19 00:00:51,630 --> 00:00:54,510 Matthew Kidman: heard quarterly updates from the other. They were probably a 20 00:00:54,510 --> 00:00:59,370 Matthew Kidman: tad disappointing, and everyone was looking at the Nim, the 21 00:00:59,370 --> 00:01:01,830 Matthew Kidman: net interest margin, the difference between what they can lend 22 00:01:01,830 --> 00:01:04,050 Matthew Kidman: out compared to what they can get their money in 23 00:01:04,050 --> 00:01:06,630 Matthew Kidman: at. And it was probably not as good as what 24 00:01:06,630 --> 00:01:09,720 Matthew Kidman: people thought, but it hasn't really affected them. Last time I 25 00:01:09,720 --> 00:01:11,010 Matthew Kidman: was on, I said, well, I think the banks have 26 00:01:11,010 --> 00:01:13,259 Matthew Kidman: got further fall. I was wrong there, Sean. But people 27 00:01:13,260 --> 00:01:15,900 Matthew Kidman: seem to like this idea of rising rates in the banks. 28 00:01:16,290 --> 00:01:19,500 Matthew Kidman: The retail sector is probably done a little bit better 29 00:01:19,500 --> 00:01:21,870 Matthew Kidman: than what people think, especially, as we've gone past the 30 00:01:21,870 --> 00:01:24,120 Matthew Kidman: post. They all give you updates. Post gen 30, the 31 00:01:24,120 --> 00:01:26,520 Matthew Kidman: first seven weeks, the first six weeks, what does sales 32 00:01:26,520 --> 00:01:30,000 Matthew Kidman: look like? And they're all a lot better, but the 33 00:01:30,000 --> 00:01:33,900 Matthew Kidman: analysts and the investors, they were prejudicial going into the 34 00:01:33,900 --> 00:01:37,260 Matthew Kidman: reporting season. They think there's a slowdown coming. Brambles was 35 00:01:37,260 --> 00:01:40,380 Matthew Kidman: good, so movement of goods around the world, even though 36 00:01:40,380 --> 00:01:42,750 Matthew Kidman: we've had supply chain problems. They've got good, strong pricing 37 00:01:42,750 --> 00:01:45,750 Matthew Kidman: power. But on the whole, it's hard to see these 38 00:01:45,780 --> 00:01:49,560 Matthew Kidman: ridiculous kind of misses and beats and movements. Probably the 39 00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:52,680 Matthew Kidman: only real share price movements have come from those more 40 00:01:52,920 --> 00:01:56,940 Matthew Kidman: etheric stocks, if that's the right terminology. That the online 41 00:01:56,940 --> 00:01:59,820 Matthew Kidman: retailers that have been belted around the last year, where 42 00:02:00,060 --> 00:02:03,030 Matthew Kidman: they came out with results that you saw short books 43 00:02:03,030 --> 00:02:07,140 Matthew Kidman: cover aggressively, and they pop. But otherwise corporate Australia's chugging 44 00:02:07,140 --> 00:02:10,590 Matthew Kidman: along okay, and there's no real signs of slowdown yet. 45 00:02:11,490 --> 00:02:13,590 Sean Alma: Compared to the US earning season, where, I think about 46 00:02:13,590 --> 00:02:19,139 Sean Alma: three quarters of companies, beat expectations. How did we fair? 47 00:02:19,139 --> 00:02:21,209 Sean Alma: It didn't seem quite as upbeat as the US. 48 00:02:21,570 --> 00:02:23,430 Matthew Kidman: Yeah. Well, we're only about halfway through. 49 00:02:23,430 --> 00:02:23,730 Sean Alma: True. 50 00:02:25,020 --> 00:02:26,910 Matthew Kidman: Like an election, you kind of know the winner after 51 00:02:26,910 --> 00:02:31,169 Matthew Kidman: 5% counted. You know the trends from different sectors. No, 52 00:02:31,169 --> 00:02:35,250 Matthew Kidman: but I would think you're 100% right. But we talk 53 00:02:35,250 --> 00:02:37,020 Matthew Kidman: about this quite regularly. The US is a bit of 54 00:02:37,020 --> 00:02:40,950 Matthew Kidman: a game, where the companies all talk everyone down, and 55 00:02:40,950 --> 00:02:42,720 Matthew Kidman: then try and beat by two. If you come in 56 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:45,810 Matthew Kidman: line in the US, then you get sold off. If 57 00:02:45,810 --> 00:02:48,540 Matthew Kidman: you beat by 2%, you're about right. If you're beat by 58 00:02:48,540 --> 00:02:50,550 Matthew Kidman: more than that, your stock can go up. Here it 59 00:02:50,550 --> 00:02:52,020 Matthew Kidman: seems to be a bit more on the level, and 60 00:02:52,020 --> 00:02:55,380 Matthew Kidman: it probably reflects the cultural kind of nature of Australia. We're a 61 00:02:55,380 --> 00:02:57,839 Matthew Kidman: bit more straight up and down a bit more direct 62 00:02:57,840 --> 00:02:59,760 Matthew Kidman: while the US, you need to kind of pamper them 63 00:02:59,760 --> 00:03:01,560 Matthew Kidman: a little bit. So I think it's the nature of 64 00:03:01,560 --> 00:03:03,870 Matthew Kidman: the markets, but I think Australia is going okay. 65 00:03:04,650 --> 00:03:06,780 Sean Alma: Okay. So let's talk about inflation. You mentioned Brambles. I 66 00:03:06,780 --> 00:03:08,940 Sean Alma: think, Amcor is another one, came out and said, we've 67 00:03:08,940 --> 00:03:11,910 Sean Alma: been able to push price increases through treasury. Wine said 68 00:03:11,910 --> 00:03:14,610 Sean Alma: that as well. It probably does end up with the 69 00:03:14,610 --> 00:03:19,860 Sean Alma: consumer that has to pay. But so far, companies, they're 70 00:03:19,860 --> 00:03:21,480 Sean Alma: worried about inflation, but they're not panicking. 71 00:03:21,960 --> 00:03:26,070 Matthew Kidman: No. Price increases across the board after the initial shock, 72 00:03:26,100 --> 00:03:30,870 Matthew Kidman: going back, probably, April, Mayish, especially after Russia invaded the 73 00:03:30,870 --> 00:03:33,030 Matthew Kidman: Ukraine. And we all got very nervous, and we had 74 00:03:33,030 --> 00:03:35,940 Matthew Kidman: an interest rate rise. Price increases in the main have 75 00:03:35,940 --> 00:03:39,120 Matthew Kidman: been accepted. It hasn't really knocked demand around for the 76 00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:42,240 Matthew Kidman: end products, so that's good. There might be some lags, 77 00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:47,970 Matthew Kidman: but talking to companies, especially the consumer- related companies. There 78 00:03:47,970 --> 00:03:50,970 Matthew Kidman: was a soft patch around the first interest rate rise 79 00:03:50,970 --> 00:03:53,520 Matthew Kidman: back in May, and heading into the election. But since 80 00:03:53,520 --> 00:03:56,370 Matthew Kidman: about mid- June, most companies will tell you the Australian 81 00:03:57,060 --> 00:04:00,090 Matthew Kidman: consumer in particular has been strong. Brambles is obviously a 82 00:04:00,090 --> 00:04:03,270 Matthew Kidman: global company, but the US consumer seems to be holding 83 00:04:03,270 --> 00:04:07,020 Matthew Kidman: up okay. So that's been the unusual thing, because rates 84 00:04:07,020 --> 00:04:09,360 Matthew Kidman: have continued to go up, but people have adjusted both 85 00:04:09,360 --> 00:04:12,089 Matthew Kidman: in their business and in their daily life to higher 86 00:04:12,090 --> 00:04:14,550 Matthew Kidman: rates, a lot better than what people thought they would. 87 00:04:15,000 --> 00:04:16,950 Sean Alma: Stay with me, Matthew, we'll be back in a minute. 88 00:04:23,010 --> 00:04:25,589 Sean Alma: My guest this morning is Matthew Kidman, principle at Centennial 89 00:04:25,589 --> 00:04:29,279 Sean Alma: Asset Management. And what about the labor market? Our CEOs 90 00:04:29,279 --> 00:04:31,500 Sean Alma: worried about finding the right labor 91 00:04:32,220 --> 00:04:35,609 Matthew Kidman: That is, without a doubt, today's biggest problem. Inflation's on 92 00:04:35,610 --> 00:04:37,529 Matthew Kidman: the horizon in terms of we're going to have to 93 00:04:37,529 --> 00:04:41,160 Matthew Kidman: keep rising interest rates to demand, but it seems like 94 00:04:41,160 --> 00:04:45,150 Matthew Kidman: an FY 23 problem. Today's problem is labor. There's just 95 00:04:45,150 --> 00:04:48,630 Matthew Kidman: not enough in any sector. It's worse probably in WA, 96 00:04:49,170 --> 00:04:51,870 Matthew Kidman: but it's across the board. Whether it be in hospitals, 97 00:04:51,870 --> 00:04:57,210 Matthew Kidman: whether it be in retail, those big employment industries, everyone's 98 00:04:57,210 --> 00:05:01,320 Matthew Kidman: short of labor. And there's no real quick fix, it's 99 00:05:01,320 --> 00:05:04,560 Matthew Kidman: crimping businesses servicing the demand that's out there, which is 100 00:05:04,560 --> 00:05:05,490 Matthew Kidman: still quite strong. 101 00:05:06,029 --> 00:05:08,850 Sean Alma: Okay. I mean, I want to get onto what we've 102 00:05:08,850 --> 00:05:10,739 Sean Alma: got coming up over the next week or so, but 103 00:05:10,740 --> 00:05:12,510 Sean Alma: have there been any so far that you've just thought, 104 00:05:12,510 --> 00:05:14,429 Sean Alma: oh wow, that's a lot better than I thought. And 105 00:05:14,430 --> 00:05:16,830 Sean Alma: particularly around that consumer discretionary, because I know you're very 106 00:05:16,830 --> 00:05:17,610 Sean Alma: good in that area. 107 00:05:18,060 --> 00:05:20,640 Matthew Kidman: Yeah. Well, because I do small caps. There's a lot 108 00:05:20,640 --> 00:05:23,760 Matthew Kidman: of small cap retailers. There's no doubt. We saw Beacon 109 00:05:23,760 --> 00:05:26,160 Matthew Kidman: Lighting, the people who look after your ceilings. They put 110 00:05:26,160 --> 00:05:28,409 Matthew Kidman: in the lights, and they have all the different designs, 111 00:05:28,410 --> 00:05:31,410 Matthew Kidman: and they have fans, and so on. They shut the lights 112 00:05:31,410 --> 00:05:33,810 Matthew Kidman: out to use that terminology yesterday. 113 00:05:33,930 --> 00:05:34,110 Sean Alma: Nice. 114 00:05:34,140 --> 00:05:38,370 Matthew Kidman: And they've got great growth trajectories, because they're moving into 115 00:05:38,370 --> 00:05:41,250 Matthew Kidman: new areas, where they're becoming wholesalers. They've moved to the 116 00:05:41,250 --> 00:05:45,900 Matthew Kidman: US. There's another one, light years ahead of where the 117 00:05:45,900 --> 00:05:49,710 Matthew Kidman: US is in terms of lighting and ceiling decorations. So 118 00:05:49,710 --> 00:05:52,710 Matthew Kidman: that was a terrific result. Stick with the same theme, 119 00:05:52,710 --> 00:05:58,170 Matthew Kidman: super retail, very strong for numbers, especially since June 30 120 00:05:58,170 --> 00:06:03,390 Matthew Kidman: and beat everyone. So that that's done particularly well. But 121 00:06:03,390 --> 00:06:08,010 Matthew Kidman: otherwise it's hard. We mentioned Brambles, was very good. The 122 00:06:08,010 --> 00:06:11,040 Matthew Kidman: media companies have done better. We saw News Corp, which 123 00:06:11,100 --> 00:06:14,669 Matthew Kidman: has had problems and investors generally don't like News Corp 124 00:06:14,670 --> 00:06:17,490 Matthew Kidman: because of the Murdoch influence. But it had a terrific 125 00:06:17,490 --> 00:06:20,010 Matthew Kidman: result and old world media was strong. So there's a 126 00:06:20,010 --> 00:06:23,429 Matthew Kidman: sprinkling of different results, which have been very good. But 127 00:06:23,430 --> 00:06:27,330 Matthew Kidman: in the main, it's just that steady as she goes. 128 00:06:27,330 --> 00:06:31,650 Matthew Kidman: But unfortunately, investors and analysts, the stock breaking analysts are 129 00:06:31,650 --> 00:06:35,730 Matthew Kidman: all waiting for, as I said, they have prejudices coming in 130 00:06:35,730 --> 00:06:43,590 Matthew Kidman: that there would be slowdown. If anything, I would say things are accelerating slightly after a slowdown around that May, June time. 131 00:06:44,100 --> 00:06:46,710 Sean Alma: Wow. What about coming up? One, I'm just interested in 132 00:06:46,710 --> 00:06:49,650 Sean Alma: is Whitehaven Coal. And the reason I kind of think 133 00:06:49,650 --> 00:06:53,760 Sean Alma: about that, is Whitehaven, Yancoal. Some of those guys, they're up 134 00:06:53,880 --> 00:06:56,280 Sean Alma: 200% over the past 12 months, obviously, on the back 135 00:06:56,339 --> 00:07:00,930 Sean Alma: of prices. You get massive profits with these guys. Can 136 00:07:00,930 --> 00:07:01,620 Sean Alma: it continue? 137 00:07:02,220 --> 00:07:06,599 Matthew Kidman: Yeah. That's an interesting one, because there's sunset industries. And 138 00:07:06,600 --> 00:07:09,720 Matthew Kidman: everyone's kind of written them off. And the really difficult 139 00:07:09,720 --> 00:07:12,360 Matthew Kidman: thing is, I would say, more than half of the 140 00:07:12,360 --> 00:07:17,580 Matthew Kidman: institutional market can't invest in them, because of their SG policies. So 141 00:07:18,030 --> 00:07:20,040 Matthew Kidman: a lot of people are happy not to do that, 142 00:07:20,340 --> 00:07:22,470 Matthew Kidman: in the sense that the less decisions you have to 143 00:07:22,470 --> 00:07:25,080 Matthew Kidman: make the better, and you can report that. So when 144 00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:27,360 Matthew Kidman: you turn up to your investors and say, look, this 145 00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:33,300 Matthew Kidman: is our performance. We don't invest in coal, especially, thermal 146 00:07:33,300 --> 00:07:36,240 Matthew Kidman: coal. Therefore, it doesn't include if we take that out, 147 00:07:36,240 --> 00:07:38,910 Matthew Kidman: the index did this, because they've been the best performers. 148 00:07:39,150 --> 00:07:42,120 Matthew Kidman: So there's a bit of data kind of smoothing in 149 00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:45,060 Matthew Kidman: that sense. Can they keep going? I would think so, 150 00:07:45,150 --> 00:07:48,630 Matthew Kidman: because you've got this need for power. We all hear 151 00:07:48,630 --> 00:07:50,970 Matthew Kidman: it every day, in some form or another, but we're 152 00:07:50,970 --> 00:07:55,350 Matthew Kidman: all moving to alternate powers over time. But there's not 153 00:07:55,350 --> 00:07:57,660 Matthew Kidman: a seamless kind of transition, where you turn off one 154 00:07:57,660 --> 00:07:59,940 Matthew Kidman: and turn on the other the next day. But what 155 00:07:59,940 --> 00:08:01,530 Matthew Kidman: you have a bit like in the oil and gas 156 00:08:01,530 --> 00:08:04,980 Matthew Kidman: industry, you haven't got massive investment in these industries. You've 157 00:08:04,980 --> 00:08:07,590 Matthew Kidman: just got the existing players, kind of running off their 158 00:08:07,590 --> 00:08:11,490 Matthew Kidman: assets over time. But coal is still required to generate 159 00:08:11,550 --> 00:08:14,760 Matthew Kidman: power in particular. And, of course, steel production is okay. 160 00:08:14,760 --> 00:08:17,790 Matthew Kidman: It's fairly strong around the world, so that metallurgical coal 161 00:08:17,790 --> 00:08:20,550 Matthew Kidman: is also doing okay. But it's that thermal coal, where 162 00:08:20,550 --> 00:08:23,940 Matthew Kidman: there's no real new supply, if anything dwindling supply. But 163 00:08:24,240 --> 00:08:27,870 Matthew Kidman: remaining fairly high demand for the moment. So definitely could 164 00:08:27,870 --> 00:08:30,540 Matthew Kidman: squeeze higher. I don't know how long it'll last. It's 165 00:08:30,540 --> 00:08:33,780 Matthew Kidman: a commodity. The supply demand metrics could change very quickly. 166 00:08:34,170 --> 00:08:36,209 Matthew Kidman: And so with the share price off the back of 167 00:08:36,210 --> 00:08:39,690 Matthew Kidman: that, but in the hands of a private investor, they 168 00:08:39,690 --> 00:08:42,420 Matthew Kidman: would be just rolling in it. The cash those guys are 169 00:08:42,450 --> 00:08:46,020 Matthew Kidman: producing. It's a bit like BHP with their iron ore. It's amazing, 170 00:08:46,020 --> 00:08:48,569 Matthew Kidman: with those fixed costs, when a price goes up. Wow. 171 00:08:49,140 --> 00:08:52,229 Sean Alma: Yeah. Just quickly, the travel companies, too. And then we've 172 00:08:52,230 --> 00:08:54,750 Sean Alma: got flight that are in Qantas still to come. But 173 00:08:54,990 --> 00:08:57,120 Sean Alma: I think with corporate travel, management seems to look a 174 00:08:57,120 --> 00:08:57,569 Sean Alma: bit better. 175 00:08:57,840 --> 00:08:59,820 Matthew Kidman: Yeah. It does. There's a couple of problems around the 176 00:08:59,820 --> 00:09:02,670 Matthew Kidman: world. Asia's not open, and that's a big part of 177 00:09:02,670 --> 00:09:05,400 Matthew Kidman: travel. So everyone's skirting that. And the other thing is 178 00:09:05,400 --> 00:09:07,770 Matthew Kidman: not full capacity has come back on. We're all feeling 179 00:09:07,770 --> 00:09:09,300 Matthew Kidman: that, whether it be in Australia, whether it be in 180 00:09:10,020 --> 00:09:13,410 Matthew Kidman: Europe. We all hear the stories about Heathrow and Alan 181 00:09:13,410 --> 00:09:15,900 Matthew Kidman: Joyce is going to be lifting bags with the rest 182 00:09:15,900 --> 00:09:16,500 Matthew Kidman: of the exec. 183 00:09:16,559 --> 00:09:17,790 Sean Alma: I'd like to see that, Matthew. 184 00:09:18,150 --> 00:09:21,300 Matthew Kidman: Yeah, I would too. I don't know whether he gets 185 00:09:21,300 --> 00:09:24,390 Matthew Kidman: a carve out, but the CFO and the rest of them have 186 00:09:24,390 --> 00:09:28,320 Matthew Kidman: to go down there. He PAs down there lifting bags, 187 00:09:28,320 --> 00:09:31,410 Matthew Kidman: while he's doing something else, taking flights here and there. 188 00:09:31,410 --> 00:09:34,380 Matthew Kidman: I'm not sure. It could have been, get a pick and put it up for us. And so 189 00:09:36,270 --> 00:09:39,780 Matthew Kidman: there is some issues, but as we know, travel is 190 00:09:39,780 --> 00:09:43,980 Matthew Kidman: picking up around the world. Heathrow is about, which is 191 00:09:44,220 --> 00:09:47,849 Matthew Kidman: the busiest airport in Europe, is about back to 70% of where it 192 00:09:48,300 --> 00:09:51,689 Matthew Kidman: was. But the airlines need to reinvest, and they took 193 00:09:51,690 --> 00:09:53,910 Matthew Kidman: a lot of capacity offline. And once again, it's not 194 00:09:53,910 --> 00:09:56,010 Matthew Kidman: as easy as turning on a switch. And as we 195 00:09:56,010 --> 00:09:59,309 Matthew Kidman: found out across the board, putting supply back on after 196 00:09:59,309 --> 00:10:01,559 Matthew Kidman: you've turned it off is not as easy as what 197 00:10:01,559 --> 00:10:03,449 Matthew Kidman: we probably thought it was. It's going to take some 198 00:10:03,450 --> 00:10:05,880 Matthew Kidman: time, and that's built into inflation. And part of the 199 00:10:05,880 --> 00:10:10,170 Matthew Kidman: inflation around the world is airline tickets. So yeah, expect 200 00:10:10,170 --> 00:10:13,440 Matthew Kidman: Qantas to produce something large. Even if he's told me 201 00:10:13,470 --> 00:10:16,410 Matthew Kidman: oil was going to go to $ 120 a barrel, you'd say, 202 00:10:16,410 --> 00:10:20,069 Matthew Kidman: well, Qantas share price would be in the toilet. That 203 00:10:20,070 --> 00:10:22,079 Matthew Kidman: hasn't been the case, because on the other side, they've 204 00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:25,500 Matthew Kidman: got pricing power. People wanted to travel and bang everyone's 205 00:10:25,500 --> 00:10:27,480 Matthew Kidman: paid double what they used to pay for a fair, 206 00:10:27,480 --> 00:10:31,199 Matthew Kidman: wherever they were going. So that should normalize, volume should 207 00:10:31,200 --> 00:10:33,660 Matthew Kidman: come back in. People should start flying out of Australia. 208 00:10:33,960 --> 00:10:36,809 Matthew Kidman: Asia's got to open up. Everyone's bet that China would 209 00:10:36,809 --> 00:10:40,410 Matthew Kidman: open. It hasn't, and that's been the interesting thing. Everyone's 210 00:10:40,410 --> 00:10:43,860 Matthew Kidman: bet that the Australian consumer would fall over. They haven't. Asia would 211 00:10:43,860 --> 00:10:46,890 Matthew Kidman: open. It hasn't, so it's all ahead of us those 212 00:10:46,890 --> 00:10:49,590 Matthew Kidman: kinds of changes. But once Asia opens some flights around 213 00:10:49,590 --> 00:10:51,750 Matthew Kidman: the world, pick up, I think that sector will be all right. 214 00:10:52,170 --> 00:10:54,750 Sean Alma: One final thing, Matthew. Last time we did reporting season 215 00:10:54,750 --> 00:10:57,240 Sean Alma: with you. You made the comment, which I've watched this 216 00:10:57,240 --> 00:10:59,730 Sean Alma: time around, is that it's really hard to pick the 217 00:10:59,730 --> 00:11:02,309 Sean Alma: market on the first day. But it's kind of day 218 00:11:02,309 --> 00:11:05,580 Sean Alma: two, threw, four, where analysts get to look at the 219 00:11:05,580 --> 00:11:08,730 Sean Alma: results in detail and kind of the share price settles 220 00:11:08,730 --> 00:11:11,070 Sean Alma: a bit, like CSL was a great example of that. 221 00:11:11,070 --> 00:11:13,949 Sean Alma: Challenger was another great example of that. It's true. That 222 00:11:13,950 --> 00:11:16,350 Sean Alma: first day's trading is very difficult to pick. 223 00:11:17,040 --> 00:11:20,670 Matthew Kidman: It's a lottery and it churns your stomach. You watch 224 00:11:20,670 --> 00:11:23,910 Matthew Kidman: things, and you say, what have I missed? What happens 225 00:11:23,910 --> 00:11:28,410 Matthew Kidman: is that there's some keyword that might be in a 226 00:11:28,410 --> 00:11:32,220 Matthew Kidman: presentation, the other word softer than we thought, or it's 227 00:11:32,220 --> 00:11:35,550 Matthew Kidman: going to take longer. CSO was a classic, the return. 228 00:11:35,880 --> 00:11:37,800 Matthew Kidman: Blood collection's been hard over the last couple of years 229 00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:40,920 Matthew Kidman: for very obvious reasons. And they've all kind of had 230 00:11:40,920 --> 00:11:43,829 Matthew Kidman: to push out their numbers a year, before they can 231 00:11:43,830 --> 00:11:48,270 Matthew Kidman: get, that's their supplier of products. And that first, everyone 232 00:11:48,270 --> 00:11:50,520 Matthew Kidman: said, well, that's a disaster down 6% for a big 233 00:11:50,520 --> 00:11:53,250 Matthew Kidman: company. That's a lot. Guess what? We were sitting here 234 00:11:53,280 --> 00:11:55,500 Matthew Kidman: going, and we actually owned some sea. So it's been 235 00:11:55,500 --> 00:11:57,449 Matthew Kidman: terrific over the last two or three months, when there's 236 00:11:57,450 --> 00:11:59,910 Matthew Kidman: been a fair bit of turmoil. We're sitting here going, 237 00:11:59,970 --> 00:12:03,240 Matthew Kidman: gosh, that's not a good outcome. Two days later, we're up 6%. 238 00:12:04,650 --> 00:12:04,920 Sean Alma: Yes. 239 00:12:04,920 --> 00:12:09,330 Matthew Kidman: So it is a real kind of tumble dryer effect, but you've 240 00:12:09,330 --> 00:12:12,390 Matthew Kidman: got to just sit through those first days and analyze 241 00:12:12,390 --> 00:12:14,880 Matthew Kidman: the result and see what the companies are actually saying, 242 00:12:15,210 --> 00:12:18,690 Matthew Kidman: and avoid the machines that go off automatically on those 243 00:12:18,690 --> 00:12:21,630 Matthew Kidman: keywords. Sometimes they're right, by the way. I'm not saying, 244 00:12:21,630 --> 00:12:23,820 Matthew Kidman: it always happens. The stocks down on day one, for 245 00:12:23,820 --> 00:12:26,100 Matthew Kidman: a good reason. People have misjudged it, and things are 246 00:12:26,100 --> 00:12:29,130 Matthew Kidman: tougher for them. But generally wait till the third day, 247 00:12:29,130 --> 00:12:30,510 Matthew Kidman: before you make a clear decision. 248 00:12:31,170 --> 00:12:32,819 Sean Alma: Matthew, thank you for talking to Fear and Greed. 249 00:12:33,090 --> 00:12:34,020 Matthew Kidman: Terrific. Thanks, Sean. 250 00:12:34,200 --> 00:12:37,440 Sean Alma: That was Matthew Kidman, principle at Centennial Asset Management. This 251 00:12:37,440 --> 00:12:39,900 Sean Alma: is a Fear and Greed Daily Interview. Remember, this information 252 00:12:39,900 --> 00:12:42,240 Sean Alma: is general in nature, and you should see professional advice 253 00:12:42,240 --> 00:12:45,270 Sean Alma: before making any investment decisions. Join us every morning for 254 00:12:45,270 --> 00:12:47,700 Sean Alma: the full episode of Fear and Greed. Australia's most popular 255 00:12:47,760 --> 00:12:50,400 Sean Alma: business podcast. I'm Sean Alma. Enjoy your day.