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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.

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Speaker 1: The federal government considers scaling back capital gains tax concessions

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Speaker 1: for property investors, a tailor two markets with tech stocks

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Speaker 1: dumped and minors surging, and Ozzie Souper loses funds to

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Speaker 1: competitors for the first time in twenty years plus, still

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Speaker 1: no reunification for the federal coalition, and Crypto's market cap

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Speaker 1: tumbles nearly half a trillion US dollars. It is Thursday,

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Speaker 1: the fifth of February twenty twenty six. I'm Michael Thompson

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Speaker 1: and good morning, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael, Sean.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning, the federal government is considering

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Speaker 1: scaling back the fifty percent capital gains tax deduction for

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Speaker 1: property investors, a key driver of the market right though

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Speaker 1: it still needs to be worked through cabinet and the

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Speaker 1: broader labor.

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Speaker 2: Bardy yes so. The AFR is reporting that the government's

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Speaker 2: considering the move as part of what Prime Minister is

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Speaker 2: the Albanes he called a reform budget in May. The

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Speaker 2: tax break was introduced during the Howard government in the

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Speaker 2: late nineties. Economists, the Greens unions, many independents, welfare groups.

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Speaker 2: They all think it should be paired back significantly. After

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Speaker 2: last year's federal election, Labor could pass any legislation only

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Speaker 2: with the support of the Greens. It doesn't need to

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Speaker 2: deal with the Nationals and the Liberals on it. Jim Chalmers,

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Speaker 2: the Treasurer, said the government's current focus and the emphasis

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Speaker 2: on current is on tackling intergenerational inequality in housing via supply.

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Speaker 2: This is a demand side measure. He said. Any shift

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Speaker 2: in capital gains tax would be a matter for cabinet.

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Speaker 2: Charmers did have Treasury modify or examine a modeling of

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Speaker 2: the capital gains tax deduction in late twenty twenty four. Now,

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Speaker 2: for its part, federal opposition signal it would fight any

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Speaker 2: move to pair back to discount. However, one senior Liberal

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Speaker 2: told The Finn that the party should not rush to

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Speaker 2: oppose any change. Given pairing back, they would appeal to

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Speaker 2: the younger voters who've been locked down the housing market

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Speaker 2: and who have deserted the Liberal party in droves. Green's

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Speaker 2: leader Lewisa Waters and Treasury spakesperson Nick McKim urged the

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Speaker 2: government to follow through.

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Speaker 1: So this is for any assets that have been held

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Speaker 1: for longer than twelve months, So it's a fifty percent discount.

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Speaker 1: Is that right the way that it currently works.

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Speaker 2: Yes, So basically this discount was introduced by Pete Extello

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Speaker 2: in ninety ninety nine. It applies to any asset held

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Speaker 2: for at least twelve months. So if you have an

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Speaker 2: invested made a two hundred thousand dollars capital gain on

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Speaker 2: an asset having held that for twelve months or more,

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Speaker 2: they'd be taxed on one hundred thousand dollars, not the

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Speaker 2: two hundred thousand dollars half the profit. So that's how

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Speaker 2: it worked. It actually Keating introduced it, but I think

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Speaker 2: it was I might have this wrong, thirty three percent

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Speaker 2: not fifty percent, and then it increased out. Most people

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Speaker 2: think this is a pretty This is middle class to

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Speaker 2: upper class come tax benefits or not income tax benefits,

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Speaker 2: sorry tax benefits. Therefore, many people think it's a very

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Speaker 2: good idea. What it also would do was take some

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Speaker 2: of the heat out of the cowsing crisis, because suddenly

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Speaker 2: you'd have fewer investors buying units and things like that,

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Speaker 2: and some of those are at the lower end, so

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Speaker 2: you'd actually end up with benefits there However, there's always however,

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Speaker 2: isn't there?

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Speaker 1: Of course there is, especially especially when you're involved. You

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Speaker 1: like to give both sides.

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Speaker 2: So Labor went to the twenty sixteen and twenty nine

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Speaker 2: and elections promising to pair it back to twenty five percent.

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Speaker 2: And guess what happened in the twenty sixteen twenty nine elections.

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Speaker 2: They lost. In fact, they lost the unlosable election in

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Speaker 2: twenty nineteen when Morrison won. In both cases, they did

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Speaker 2: say the legislation wouldn't be retrospective, meaning if you have

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Speaker 2: an investment property now, you'd still keep your fifty percent discount.

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Speaker 2: So you know, I like to work through this. It's

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Speaker 2: still got to get through the party. I just Phil

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Speaker 2: Kurry is an AFI reporter who this story. Phil doesn't

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Speaker 2: break stuff unless there's you know, whether smoke is fire,

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Speaker 2: Phil is I mean, I've talked about Phil before. He

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Speaker 2: has is very well sourced. So clearly they are thinking

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Speaker 2: about it.

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Speaker 1: And this is actually a sign then that this would

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Speaker 1: be major reform if this was If this was to happen,

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Speaker 1: this isn't just little bits around the edges. And yes,

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Speaker 1: you say that this is kind of middle class kind

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Speaker 1: of and higher but it is a significant reform.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely. So there are a few things like fringe benefit

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Speaker 2: tax benefits for evs which they could roll back. That's

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Speaker 2: kind of around the edges. This here has been a

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Speaker 2: mainstay of the property market for twenty five years. Rolling

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Speaker 2: this back is significant reform. Personally, not that I have

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Speaker 2: an investment home, so maybe you know therefore I don't

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Speaker 2: care so much, but I think it's just sensible policy

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Speaker 2: to roll it back, not necessarily lose it totally, but

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Speaker 2: to roll it back. So okay, yeah, Actually the other

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Speaker 2: thing did you say yes to? I think in the

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Speaker 2: afternoon report, So you're talking about.

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Speaker 1: This is going to bring this property. We're talking about

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Speaker 1: property deals. This is a lopper Sean sure Is.

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Speaker 2: Richard Miles, the Defense Minister, said the government will sell

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Speaker 2: off sixty seven defense properties, including historic Victoria Barratt's properties

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Speaker 2: in each of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. That is quite

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Speaker 2: the property Portfolilo that's going up for sale.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and we obviously we talk about when we're talking

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Speaker 1: about the capital gain SAX changes that the benefit is

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Speaker 1: potentially reducing that pressure in the housing market and something

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Speaker 1: like this. The government was asked about that yesterday. Selling

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Speaker 1: these big defense property sites. Is it going to go

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Speaker 1: to housing? Are you really going to focus because some

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Speaker 1: of these are prime locations in close to the center

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Speaker 1: of cities and they weren't too kind of keen to

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Speaker 1: commit to anything but said, yeah, well sure, kind of

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Speaker 1: housing will be potentially part of the discussion.

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Speaker 2: Vye A little to work out, Michael, A few details.

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Speaker 1: The details details Sean pretty while down in the as yesterday.

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Speaker 1: Shall we move on to markets? The tech stocks got hammered,

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Speaker 1: the commodity and energy players surged. It was just a

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Speaker 1: whopper of a day.

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Speaker 2: Where to start. There was a bounce in the goal

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Speaker 2: price to be back above five thousand US dollars announced

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Speaker 2: That helped companies like Northern Star, Regis Resources. Newmon copper

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Speaker 2: prices also bounced. That helped BAJP and Rio, the big

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Speaker 2: Australian behp. Its share price hit a fifty two week

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Speaker 2: high yesterday, put it back at the top of the

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Speaker 2: ASEX in terms of market capitalization over come off bank.

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Speaker 2: Price of oil also been pushing higher in recent sessions,

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Speaker 2: with crude now fetching sixty eight US dollars a barrel

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Speaker 2: that has been rising kind of on the back of

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Speaker 2: what's happening in Iran. The latest on that is that

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Speaker 2: the US shotdown in Iranian drone near an American aircraft.

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Speaker 2: That pushed up oil price. That meant our oil giants,

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Speaker 2: Woodside Santos both rose. The coal companies had a good day.

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Speaker 2: And back of the news that China last year opened

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Speaker 2: a record number of new coal fired power stations. We

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Speaker 2: thought we were getting rid of them, not in China,

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Speaker 2: so Yen Cole for example, I think that jump nine

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Speaker 2: percent or thereabouts by the closed. Yes, and PAX two

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Speaker 2: hundred was up almost one percent to eight hundred and

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Speaker 2: twenty eight points away from commodities. That banks did well.

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Speaker 2: The retailers were mixed. But Michael tex stocks, isn't.

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Speaker 1: It the Tex stocks?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: What is going on there? Sean? Because yesterday the technology

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Speaker 1: index on the ASEX, I think it was off nine

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Speaker 1: percent yesterday. It's off more than seventeen percent this year

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Speaker 1: and we're only a month into the year.

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Speaker 2: What's interesting, I mean, a lot of this is on

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Speaker 2: the back of what's happening on Wall Street, and some

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Speaker 2: of the big textocks have been sold down. Underneath a

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Speaker 2: lot of this for the tech stocks is that just

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Speaker 2: concerns that artificial intelligence could hit demand for companies products,

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Speaker 2: and so all the local textocks are trying to integrate

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Speaker 2: AI into their products. And we had a story in

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Speaker 2: the last couple of days about Zero doing that and

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Speaker 2: pranked in the US, but investors just aren't so sure.

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Speaker 2: So Zero yesterday fell as much as fifteen percent to

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Speaker 2: a three year low. Whystick Global and Technology won both

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Speaker 2: down eleven overreactions. But it just shows how jumpy people

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Speaker 2: are about whether there is a tech slash AI bubble

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Speaker 2: going on in markets at the moment.

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Speaker 1: It's going to make for We talked about this yesterday,

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Speaker 1: didn't we It's going to make for a very interesting

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Speaker 1: reporting season ahead when we hear from some of these

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Speaker 1: local business leaders about what they think is going to

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Speaker 1: be happening over the next six months twelve months. It's

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Speaker 1: going to be and seeing some of those swings yesterday, God,

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Speaker 1: who knows what we're in for?

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Speaker 2: No idea, Michael, No idea.

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Speaker 1: All right, back in a moment with the rest of

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Speaker 1: the day's business news, Sean. There are a few signs

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Speaker 1: that the federal Nationals and Liberals will reunite by the

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Speaker 1: end of the week, which is the deadline imposed by

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Speaker 1: liberal leader Susan Lee, that if not met, would banish

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Speaker 1: the nets to the backbenches until the next election.

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Speaker 2: Lee put forward a proposal to reunite, and as a

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Speaker 2: condition three National MPs broke cabinet solidarity over hate speech

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Speaker 2: laws would have to spend six months in the sinbin.

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Speaker 2: I think we decided yes, so we're going to call

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Speaker 2: it so. A counter off was put forward by Little Proud,

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Speaker 2: but mediat this morning is saying there is no breakthrough.

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Speaker 2: According to MPs who were familiar with the negotiations, little

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Speaker 2: chance of compromise given the hard lines drawn by Lee,

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Speaker 2: Little Proud and their respective party rooms.

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Speaker 1: Meanwhile, billionaire, and it must be said, serial electioneer Clive

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Speaker 1: Palmer has revealed he's been in talks with members of

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Speaker 1: the Nationals about its future direction, hinting that he may

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Speaker 1: be prepared to bankroll the party.

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Speaker 2: Yes, I mean. He also unveiled plans to mount a

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Speaker 2: High Court challenge to new donation and spending caps passed

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Speaker 2: by Parliament last year. He doesn't want that, of course,

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Speaker 2: he was the biggest spender in the last election, not

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Speaker 2: that it helped him get elected or anything. Palmer said

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Speaker 2: he had discussions with the NATS about their current dilemma.

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Speaker 2: He added he hadn't spoken to David little Proud about

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Speaker 2: the leadership. According to The Australian, Palmer gave an absolute

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Speaker 2: scathing assessment of Susan Lee and the liber declaring the

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Speaker 2: opposition leader could not make an impression on cushions. He

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Speaker 2: went on to call the Liberals a party full of wankers.

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Speaker 2: Thank you, Clive. He's hinting though, at bank rolling the Nats.

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Speaker 2: That's really interesting because of course the Nats need money.

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Speaker 2: Yesterday Barnaby Joyce came out and said the no that's

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Speaker 2: going to go to one nation now that Corey Bernardi

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Speaker 2: had gone, no one else was looking likely to doing it.

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Speaker 2: I mean, it's not a bit of a settling down

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Speaker 2: period for Nashs. But the Nats I don't think they will.

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Speaker 2: I mean I think they will eventually end up in

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Speaker 2: a coalition with the Libs. But there's luck going on

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Speaker 2: for that party. They really have to rethink who they

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Speaker 2: stand for and what they stand for.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and the involvement of Clive Palmer is an interesting

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Speaker 1: one because he's more recently been known as the trumpet

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Speaker 1: of patriots and all that, and he did spent it

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Speaker 1: was like sixty million dollars just in the campaign, but

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Speaker 1: a lot more than that across the whole year. But

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Speaker 1: I mean, here's a very long history within the LNP

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Speaker 1: in Queensland in particular, so it is it is very

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Speaker 1: interesting to see him popping up as someone who could

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Speaker 1: well be pivotal to the future of the NATS. So

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Speaker 1: we shall see where that one goes. Sean Glencore has

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Speaker 1: agreed to sell a minority steak in its African copper

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Speaker 1: minds in a move that could help any future merger

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Speaker 1: between it and Rio tinto.

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Speaker 2: Glen Core will sell forty percent of its two copper

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Speaker 2: minds in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Unless said that

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Speaker 2: could sue Rio Tina's concerns about compliance and sovereign risk

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Speaker 2: at Glencore.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: The sale agreement announcement, which remained subject to due diligence,

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Speaker 2: came forty eight hours before Rio and Glencore are required

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Speaker 2: to finalize or extend the merger discussions they disclosed on

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Speaker 2: January eight, so we should hear something about that in

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Speaker 2: the next twenty four hours or so. Ria has been

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Speaker 2: working hard to better understand the risk of inheriting Glencore's

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Speaker 2: reputation and operating arrangements in Africa. They're not exactly great.

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Speaker 2: So Glenhall pleaded guilty in a British court in twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty two to paying bribes for oil in five African

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Speaker 2: nations between twenty eleven and twenty seventeen. So bit going

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Speaker 2: on there, But the main game here is really Glencore

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Speaker 2: Rio will that merger go ahead?

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Speaker 1: They're not exactly great. I love that the way that

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Speaker 1: you're delicately put that. Just then, Sean Australian super the

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Speaker 1: Doyan of the industry superfund sector, it's reported net outflows

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Speaker 1: for a for a financial year. That's the first time

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Speaker 1: that's happened in more than two decades. That's actually quite

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Speaker 1: a significant turnaround.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. So the amount of net outflows two hundred and

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Speaker 2: fifty million dollars in four hundred billion dollars in funds

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Speaker 2: under management isn't much, but it is negative. And what

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Speaker 2: it does show is that members are switching to other

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Speaker 2: super funds. So the figure reflects active switching of funds,

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Speaker 2: not market performance. So it's people actively deciding I don't

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Speaker 2: want to be with OZ super I want to be

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Speaker 2: somewhere else. Broadly, more money flowing to advise the focused

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Speaker 2: wealth platforms like those run by a Hub, twenty net

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Speaker 2: Wealth and Macquarie. Ozzie Suber is not the only major

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Speaker 2: industry fund to face restless members that you CONNECTUS Institute

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Speaker 2: analysis shows more switching between managers than at any time

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Speaker 2: since twenty twenty two. Around seventy eight billion dollars in

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Speaker 2: funds under management rolled in and out of funds. Half

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Speaker 2: of those switches involved the financial advisor. The good news there.

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Speaker 2: We're big fans of financial advisors and I think the

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Speaker 2: whole idea that you get financial advice is a good thing.

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Speaker 2: So Ossie Suber people are moving away. Ironically, their investment

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Speaker 2: returns over the past ten years were about eight percent

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Speaker 2: and its most popular balanced portfolio that put it forth

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Speaker 2: behind Unsuber, host Plus and Australian Retirement Trust, well ahead

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Speaker 2: of the industry medium of seven point two percent.

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Speaker 1: Turning to international news, now at sean half a trillion

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Speaker 1: dollars or almost half a trillion dollars has been wiped

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Speaker 1: off cryptocurrencies in less than a week as a sell

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Speaker 1: off led by Bitcoin really accelerates.

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Speaker 2: So the title market value of cryptos has fallen by

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Speaker 2: US four to six seven point six billion dollars since

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Speaker 2: January twenty nine. According to coin Gecko data, Bitcoin in

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Speaker 2: the past thirty six hours has fallen to its lowest

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Speaker 2: level since US President Donald Trump won reelection in early

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Speaker 2: November twenty twenty four and ushered in more crypto friendly plans.

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Speaker 2: It hit of US seventy two eight hundred and seventy

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Speaker 2: seven dollars a unit early yesterday morning, down nearly forty

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Speaker 2: percent since its peak on October sixth last year. Since

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Speaker 2: that peak, crypto acids broadly have lost about one point

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Speaker 2: seven billion US dollars. The thing is, bitcoin went through

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Speaker 2: a phase where it almost became sort of safe haven status,

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Speaker 2: but as gold was sold off and silver was sold off,

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Speaker 2: bitcoin was sold off when it actually started early in

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Speaker 2: the case of bitcoin, but people are just not real

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Speaker 2: sure whether it is actually a digital gold. It hasn't

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Speaker 2: acted as a safe haven during the period of heightened

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Speaker 2: geopoliticals uncertainty, so people are just less and them with it,

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Speaker 2: particularly at those high prices.

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Speaker 1: Hey, Sean, I know we're wrapping things up, but remember yesterday.

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Speaker 1: There's just probably a stretch asking you to remember that

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Speaker 1: far back, but we were talking about the planned by

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump to have a twelve billion US dollar stockpile

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Speaker 1: of critical minerals, and I somewhat flippantly asked, how big

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Speaker 1: a shed would you need to store that? In a

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Speaker 1: special shout out to one of our listeners, Jonathan, who's

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Speaker 1: actually done the work to.

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Speaker 2: Figure out this out, Me and Mug Jonathan.

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Speaker 1: This is me and Mug Jonathan Jonathan Kerr, who works

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Speaker 1: for Budget Direct, and he's a listener and a great listener,

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Speaker 1: and he got in touch to tell us he's done

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Speaker 1: the work. It's had a bit of assistance from from

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Speaker 1: I think co Pilot or chat GPT or Gemini or somewhere,

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Speaker 1: but he's calculated that based on what we know is

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Speaker 1: going to be in that stockpile with all your kind

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Speaker 1: of eu lithiums and your nickels and all of these

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Speaker 1: other ones that eventually in the end the space that

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Speaker 1: they're going to need is a shed roughly the size

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Speaker 1: of forty Walmart supercenters, or one and a half half

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Speaker 1: size times the size of the Pentagon, which is fantastic.

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Speaker 1: You want to have them separated.

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Speaker 2: I'm not a big shed, It's a big shad. The

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Speaker 2: point is Jonathan, thank you so much for that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well done. We love a bit of research, especially

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Speaker 1: when it's done by somebody else, exactly, Sean, coming up

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Speaker 1: next Fear and Greed Q and A. Your guest today

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Speaker 1: googled Higgins head of Responsible Investment and realize it's at

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Speaker 1: Zenith Investment Partners.

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Speaker 2: Yes, so you know, we sort of have forgotten about

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Speaker 2: responsible investing in green investing and ESG investing and all

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Speaker 2: those sorts of things that we thought. We're just cheeking

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Speaker 2: with Google and see how it's going. He has this

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Speaker 2: great line. It sort of hasn't been Basically, it's growing up.

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Speaker 2: You know, it's not becoming less important in some ways,

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Speaker 2: it's becoming more important, and it's growing up in the

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Speaker 2: current climates. It's great chat.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it is a good one. It's coming up next

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Speaker 1: to the Fear and Greed playlist, or you can check

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Speaker 1: it out at fearing dot com DoD au, which is

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Speaker 1: also where you sign up for our free daily newsletter,

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Speaker 1: and the link to sign up for that is in

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Speaker 1: our show notes. Nice and easy popular email addressing. Ahway

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Speaker 1: you go, Thanks Sean.

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Speaker 2: Thanks Michael.

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Speaker 1: Thursday, the fifth of February twenty twenty six. Make sure

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Speaker 1: you're following the podcast, and please join us online on

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Speaker 1: LinkedIn and Instagram. I'm Michael Thompson and Atosphere and Greed.

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Speaker 1: Have a great day.